FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: MIA 17, IND 20 (Line: MIA by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Andrew Luck

Players Updated: Coby Fleener, Donald Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hartline, Dwayne Allen

The 4-3 Dolphins are on a three game winning streak with a 2-2 road mark. The 4-3 Colts are on a two game winning streak and have a 3-1 home record. The Fins have the better defense to be sure but the Colts offense playing at home already took down the Vikings, Browns and Packers.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 260,2
QB Ryan Tannehill 230,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-30

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins are winning mostly thanks to a defense that has not allowed more than 24 points to any opponent. The offense is one of the worst when it comes to passing and even the success rushing the ball has declined from earlier in the season. Ryan Tannehill underwent an MRI that was diagnosed as a left knee bone bruise and a deep thigh bruise. HC Joe Philbin has not yet committed to either Tannehill or Matt Moore as if it was a secret that would yield too much information to the Colts. Bottom line - no matter who is the quarterback this is not an offense that will throw often or that well.

After seven weeks, they have collectively only passed for five touchdowns which is a pace that might end up in the double digits. Maybe. They have never thrown a touchdown in two consecutive games and aside from the freak show in Arizona when Tannehill threw for 431 yards, this is one of the most mediocre passing offenses in the league. By no means is this an offense that can make up points with any speed.

Brian Hartline started his season with the two magical games but that's all disappeared by now. When Hartline or Davone Bess ends up with more than 50 yards in a game it is because a cornerback fell down, Jabar Gaffney has joined this crew as of last week and fit in immediately with just one catch for 30 yards in New York. On the entire season the wide receivers have accounted for only two touchdowns and one went to Marlon Moore who rarely gets to play.

Reggie Bush powers the offense but he's being held under 20 carries each week and working less as a receiver as well. Since his 172 yards against the Raiders, Bush has never rushed for over 67 yards or ended with more than 72 total yards. Twice Jorvorskie Lane came in just to score a short touchdown and now Daniel Thomas is healthy again and getting 10 to 15 carries per week. Thomas does not produce fantasy relevant yardage but scored in each of his last two games. The rushing effort is watered down now between Bush and Thomas with neither producing more than moderate fantasy points in any game.

What this team cannot do is fall behind. The Colts are a negative image of this team in that their passing is their strength. The Fins are going to run the ball and probably throw one touchdown. It's all about stopping Andrew Luck.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 28 26 26 16
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 25 28 1 8 14

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA NE 0000024021 ***
Only three of the past 84 completions made it into the end zone, which is the third-worst rate for quarterbacks. The Patriots have five interceptions in the past four games, and this is the worst statistical matchup for the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA NE 5003200000 ***
Two weeks ago, Drake, while sharing touches, managed 47 yards on 12 touches and a receiving score against the Patriots. That was the only score New England has granted in the last four games to RBs. The position has averaged 100.3 rushing yards and five catches a contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NE 0061001000 ***
These squads met just two weeks ago on the Patriots' turf. Landry had 19 catches in his two games last year vs. New England, going for 9-76-1 in the Week 17 home game. The Patriots will be happy to allow him all of the underneath catches he can secure for eight yards a catch again if he stays out of the end zone. New England has been among the league's best at prohibiting wideouts from scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA NE 003501000 ***
Stills, who is enjoying the best statistical pace of his young career, was good for a modest line of 3-47-0 in the last game two weeks ago. He scored in both of the 2016 meetings. New England has permitted just two of the last 49 catches by Stills' positional counterparts to find paydirt in the past five weeks. He's a fringe play as his usual risk-reward self.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NE 003400000 ***
Parker had just one catch for five yards in the Week 12 meeting, which was the same stat line he authored last weekend. The Patriots have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per reception since Week 8, and one in 24.5 catches has found the end zone (5th-toughest rate).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA NE 003200000 ***
All three of Thomas' touchdowns this year have come in the past five weeks. He has posted at least seven PPR points in each of those games, going for double figures the past two. New England allowed him to produce 52 yards on five catches in the last meeting two games ago, which was the best effort of any tight ends in the past five weeks vs. the Pats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA NE 0022 ***
This is the worst matchup for fantasy points allowed, which stems from giving up the fewest combined kicking chances on a weekly rate in the past four games.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,2
RB Robert Turbin 10
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts are on a two game winning streak and come off their first road win of the year. While the offense has been turned down a notch in recent weeks, the defense has really come through after being ravaged by the Jets. The Colts are still long shots for any post season play of course but a 4-3 record near the midway point is already a big success.

Andrew Luck was on a hot streak with seven scores in the first four weeks but he's cooled down to only one touchdown in the last three games. Against the Browns he did rush in two touchdowns though and regularly throws for 270 yards or more . Notable too is that he's only thrown five interceptions over his first seven games. Peyton Manning committed 14 interceptions in the first seven games of his Colt's career. Just saying.

Donald Brown was not only able to participate last week for the first time since week three, he took a surprisingly heavy load with 14 runs for 80 yards. Vick Ballard turned 12 runs into 55 yards and then caught the game winning touchdown on his only catch in the game. It is not enough that this unit relies on both Brown and Ballard. Now Delone Carter is being used as the goal line back. There's not enough fantasy points to go around.

Coby Fleener may be out with a shoulder injury this week though he's never scored and really is no fantasy factor. Dwayne Allen occasionally shows up in the box score but lacks the consistency and yardage to merit any consideration.

Reggie Wayne still cranks out at least 70 yards every week and is one of the NFL leaders with 54 receptions on the season. That is a pace for 123 receptions and in a dome on this offense, it is not out of the question. Wayne remains light on touchdowns with only two and even as a unit, the Colts have only produced four scores by all wideouts combined. Luck has been good enough that he's been able to post big yards in most games without relying on any single player other than Wayne.

This should be a close game that will depend on the Fins stopping Luck and the Colts keeping the Dolphins from racking up too many rushing yards and scores.This is a good test for Luck since the rushing effort won't likely be that successful and it will be up to him to do the scoring and getting first downs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 26 10 14 20 29
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 21 8 23 13 16 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND @BUF 20000018001 ***
This is a terrible matchup for a quarterback who has largely struggled the past month. Buffalo has yielded just four touchdown throws in the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND @BUF 6011100000 ***
Buffalo provides the veteran with the best matchup for rushing yards, touchdown frequency and fantasy points Over the past five games, RBs trotted into the end zone 11 times on the ground and racked up 161.8 rushing yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND @BUF 4002200000 ***
The matchup is as good as it gets in fantasy, but it will come down to whether the Colts can provide enough work for both Frank Gore and the rookie. Eleven rushing touchdowns have been scored against the Bills since Week 8, and this is the best place to find success rushing the ball.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chester Rogers, IND @BUF 003400000 ***
Update: Rogers should see a few looks with Donte Moncrief out of action. Buffalo presents a tough matchup, and there is no utility here for fantasy purposes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @BUF 003300000 ***
Hilton popped off for a big fantasy game last week with a tough matchup, but most of the work came on a single touchdown grab. He is once again a risky play. Buffalo has yielded the second-fewest yards on the seventh-lowest average number of catches per game since Week 8, allowing fewer than one WR TD per outing in this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND @BUF 002200000 ***
Going back over the past five outings, Buffalo has given up 24 receptions (11th) for 287 yards (6th) but nothing in the touchdown column to the position. This is the second-hardest defense for scoring against, and Doyle owners should look for a better option.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @BUF 1111 ***
Over the past five games, kickers have made 18 of the 19 extra points and 12 of the 13 field goal kicks. No team has provided more per-game kicking chances than the 6.4 by Buffalo.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

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