FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @Dorey_TheHuddle
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: MIA 17, IND 20 (Line: MIA by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Andrew Luck

Players Updated: Coby Fleener, Donald Brown, Ryan Tannehill, Brian Hartline, Dwayne Allen

The 4-3 Dolphins are on a three game winning streak with a 2-2 road mark. The 4-3 Colts are on a two game winning streak and have a 3-1 home record. The Fins have the better defense to be sure but the Colts offense playing at home already took down the Vikings, Browns and Packers.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN -----
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 260,2
QB Ryan Tannehill 230,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-30

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins are winning mostly thanks to a defense that has not allowed more than 24 points to any opponent. The offense is one of the worst when it comes to passing and even the success rushing the ball has declined from earlier in the season. Ryan Tannehill underwent an MRI that was diagnosed as a left knee bone bruise and a deep thigh bruise. HC Joe Philbin has not yet committed to either Tannehill or Matt Moore as if it was a secret that would yield too much information to the Colts. Bottom line - no matter who is the quarterback this is not an offense that will throw often or that well.

After seven weeks, they have collectively only passed for five touchdowns which is a pace that might end up in the double digits. Maybe. They have never thrown a touchdown in two consecutive games and aside from the freak show in Arizona when Tannehill threw for 431 yards, this is one of the most mediocre passing offenses in the league. By no means is this an offense that can make up points with any speed.

Brian Hartline started his season with the two magical games but that's all disappeared by now. When Hartline or Davone Bess ends up with more than 50 yards in a game it is because a cornerback fell down, Jabar Gaffney has joined this crew as of last week and fit in immediately with just one catch for 30 yards in New York. On the entire season the wide receivers have accounted for only two touchdowns and one went to Marlon Moore who rarely gets to play.

Reggie Bush powers the offense but he's being held under 20 carries each week and working less as a receiver as well. Since his 172 yards against the Raiders, Bush has never rushed for over 67 yards or ended with more than 72 total yards. Twice Jorvorskie Lane came in just to score a short touchdown and now Daniel Thomas is healthy again and getting 10 to 15 carries per week. Thomas does not produce fantasy relevant yardage but scored in each of his last two games. The rushing effort is watered down now between Bush and Thomas with neither producing more than moderate fantasy points in any game.

What this team cannot do is fall behind. The Colts are a negative image of this team in that their passing is their strength. The Fins are going to run the ball and probably throw one touchdown. It's all about stopping Andrew Luck.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 28 26 26 16
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 25 28 1 8 14

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, MIA NYJ 0000019011 ***
Quarterbacks have tossed nine TDs in the last five games against this defense, getting picked off five times. The Jets have done well overall at limiting quarterbacks in fantasy, permitting only 225.6 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NYJ 9012100000 ***
Ajayi faces the Jets' 12th-worst defense of non-PPR backs. This group has given up 96 rushing yards, on average, and a every 39.7 carries, ranking 15th for both. Last year, he logged 22 fantasy points in the first meeting but a pathetic 5.1 in Week 15's game facing NYJ.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NYJ 006601000 ***
DeVante Parker's status remains unsettled, which translates to more work for Landry. The Jets have given up 12 receptions per contest to receivers, which is the 15th most. In Week 3, he caught six balls for 48 yards against this defense.

Update: Parker is doubtful for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA NYJ 005500000 ***
Despite seeing 10 targets in Week 2 against the Jets, Stills caught just four of them for 51 yards. Stills is a risk-reward play and at least has a respectable matchup if for those willing to gamble. He is less appealing if DeVante Parker goes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, MIA NYJ 002200000 ***
New York has permitted 4.2 receptions per contest to tight ends, with one of every seven going for a TD. TEs have averaged 42.4 yards, on average.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, MIA NYJ 2222 ***
Kickers have missed four of eight field goals, keeping this matchup bumped down the list. On paper, it is the second worst. Thirteen of the 14 PATs were true.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,2
RB Robert Turbin 10
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts are on a two game winning streak and come off their first road win of the year. While the offense has been turned down a notch in recent weeks, the defense has really come through after being ravaged by the Jets. The Colts are still long shots for any post season play of course but a 4-3 record near the midway point is already a big success.

Andrew Luck was on a hot streak with seven scores in the first four weeks but he's cooled down to only one touchdown in the last three games. Against the Browns he did rush in two touchdowns though and regularly throws for 270 yards or more . Notable too is that he's only thrown five interceptions over his first seven games. Peyton Manning committed 14 interceptions in the first seven games of his Colt's career. Just saying.

Donald Brown was not only able to participate last week for the first time since week three, he took a surprisingly heavy load with 14 runs for 80 yards. Vick Ballard turned 12 runs into 55 yards and then caught the game winning touchdown on his only catch in the game. It is not enough that this unit relies on both Brown and Ballard. Now Delone Carter is being used as the goal line back. There's not enough fantasy points to go around.

Coby Fleener may be out with a shoulder injury this week though he's never scored and really is no fantasy factor. Dwayne Allen occasionally shows up in the box score but lacks the consistency and yardage to merit any consideration.

Reggie Wayne still cranks out at least 70 yards every week and is one of the NFL leaders with 54 receptions on the season. That is a pace for 123 receptions and in a dome on this offense, it is not out of the question. Wayne remains light on touchdowns with only two and even as a unit, the Colts have only produced four scores by all wideouts combined. Luck has been good enough that he's been able to post big yards in most games without relying on any single player other than Wayne.

This should be a close game that will depend on the Fins stopping Luck and the Colts keeping the Dolphins from racking up too many rushing yards and scores.This is a good test for Luck since the rushing effort won't likely be that successful and it will be up to him to do the scoring and getting first downs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 26 10 14 20 29
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 21 8 23 13 16 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND JAC 10000017011 ***
Jacksonville is arguably the best defense against quarterbacks in football. Stats-wise, this is the No. 2 defense in fantasy points, yards, TDs per completion and points per play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND JAC 201000000 ***
Mack's involvement should increase with Robert Turbin done. The Jaguars have allowed four rushing touchdowns in the last five games, or one every 31.3 carries. The 141.2 rushing yards per game against this defense rates as the most in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND JAC 5004300000 **
With Robert Turbin out, Gore's chances for goal line work likely increases. The Jags have been stout vs. WRs and pushed around by backs. This is the 10th-best matchup in PPR and ninth-best in standard. Most of the points against come from this being the most generous D at surrendering rushing yards (141.2/game) and the 10th-best for scoring against on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND JAC 003300000 ***
This is a yo-yo season for Hilton. Last week was the low end of the yo. Unfortunately, if stats say anything, that string bottomed out and isn't rebounding. The Jaguars are one of the toughest defenses at stopping wideouts, and it has been that way for nearly a season and a half. Last year, Hilton (with Luck) went for 17.2 points and 15.5 in PPR vs. Jacksonville.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND JAC 004300000 ***
Moncrief is a flex, at best, at this point. He has no visible chemistry with Jacoby Brissett and has one score on the year. That has been his bread and butter in the past. The Jaguars are fantasy's fourth-best defense of wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kamar Aiken, IND JAC 002200000 ***
Aiken doesn't have any tangible fantasy value and belongs on the waiver wire, especially in such a tough matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND JAC 005401000 *
Doyle emerged last week, despite a crucial fumble, and showed signs of fantasy life. The Jags have yielded three TDs in the last five games, or one every 6.7 catches. Aside from being vulnerable in the scoring department, TEs accomplished little else in that time. He hauled in three balls for 16 yards and a TD in two games vs. the Jaguars last year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND JAC 2222 ***
In both field goals (11-for-12) and extra points (10-for-10) against, this is a quality matchup. Kickers have averaged the seventh-most fantasy points per contest against the Jags.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t