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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: PHI 24, NO 30 (Line: NO by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Michael Vick and/or Nick Foles

Players Updated: Darren Sproles

The 3-4 Eagles are on a three game losing streak with a 1-2 road record and travel to face the 2-5 Saints who were just dismantled by the Broncos. The Eagles are contemplating a change at quarterback as a means of shaking up the offense. The Saints still have a good offense, they merely need a defense that can stop anyone in any way... ever. This is the Monday night game so bad defenses should mean nice points.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles
QB Michael Vick 40 270,2
RB Felix Jones 30 1-10
RB LeSean McCoy 80,1 4-20
WR DeSean Jackson 6-110,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-80,1
TE Brent Celek 4-30
PK Alex Henery 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Three game losing streak has led to removing the defensive coordinator and Michael Vick may be replaced by Nick Foles because this version of Vick cannot sustain drives or mount comebacks. Vick has failed to deliver on the promise of his first year back from killing dogs. Since this is the Monday game, first practices don't start until Thursday and a change may not happen until then if it even does.

The reality here is that Foles should push hard for the change because no quarterback could ever hope to have a better first game than to face the 2012 New Orleans Saints defense. Foles would put a new slant on the offense but that's hard to call obviously with nothing to go on other than he is not Michael Vick.

LeSean McCoy's caught a touchdown in each of the last three games but his rushing totals point at the glaring need for better blocking. McCoy ran for 120 yards on 46 carries over the last three games. That's only 2.6 yards per carry. He balances out his fantasy value with touchdowns as a receiver lately but overall this is a very disappointing season for McCoy. His role as a runner only gets worse and even as a receiver with as many as seven catches in a game, he's topped out at just 27 yards. All this and he doesn't share any carries. The Eagles offense is in a funk and that extends to McCoy. The problem with a change to Foles at quarterback is that he may not elect to use McCoy as his preferred endzone target. Take away his scores and McCoy is just gaining around 60 or 70 total yards per week.

Brent Celek is still churning out the 30 yard efforts with only one score on the year. He's a marginal fantasy play at best and even that may go away with a change at quarterback.

DeSean Jackson is producing the most consistent stats of any wideout or tight end though he's scored just once all year and hangs out right around five catches for 60 yards in most weeks. He's not broken 100 yards since week two. Jeremy Maclin's numbers have fallen dramatically. While he gained 130 yards and one score in week six, he has been otherwise completely devoid of any fantasy value since week two. His routes are so short now that his last game was six catches for only 33 yards versus the Falcons. He caught five passes for just 39 yards in week five. This group could use some fresh blood slinging passes.

The Saints defense is bad. Though this is played in New Orleans, every opponent pounds on the Saints who gave up at least 250 pass yards every week and over 300 yards five times. The defense has actually been getting worse with the last four games allowing 12 touchdown passes against them. Any quarterback change is going to throw risk into this but it really does not get much better than facing the Saints.

McCoy should also have at least a decent showing against the #31 defense versus running backs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 19 12 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 31 32 6 25 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, PHI @NYG 30100026012 ***
Nick Foles heads to IR with a broken hand, putting Vick back in the driver's seat. He threw for 241 and 1 in the earlier meeting with the Giants, mixing in 49 rushing yards as well; look for him to build on those numbers in this audition for whatever team he'll be quarterbacking in 2013. And since Vick is most impressive when running the ball, a rushing score wouldn't surprise this week--nor would a bigger yardage total, seeing as similarly mobile RG3 took the Giants for 161 yards in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 9015300000 ***
McCoy's 122 combo yards last week certainly suggest he's back to full go, which is especially good news this week seeing as he rushed for 123 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants. And considering New York allowed two 100-yard rushers last week alone, McCoy should be in line for another productive outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 006701000 ***
DeSean Jackson inflicted the damage in the earlier meeting with the Giants while Maclin was held to one catch for seven yards, but DJax ain't around this time and Maclin has been Philly's go-to guy over the past month. Michael Vick knows where to find him as well, so expect Maclin to lead the charge in Philly's passing game this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, PHI @NYG 004600000 ***
Avant has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, stepping up in the absence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson was Philly's go-to guy in the earlier meeting with the Giants, so if they focus on shutting down Jeremy Maclin again it could be a nice opportunity for Maclin. Even if Avant plays wingman, a date with a Giants' secondary that's allowed 20 WR TDs on the year and six wideouts to top 74 yards in the past month should provide reasonably lucrative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @NYG 002200000 ***
Cooper's contributions have been too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @NYG 005500000 ***
Celek had a comfort level with Michael Vick earlier in the season, including 57 yards in the previous meeting with the Giants. Big Blue has allowed 170 yards and a TD to the position over the past three games, so Celek certainly feels in line for another solid yardage game with the possibility of a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @NYG 2133 ***
Henery has multiple field goals in two straight and five of the last six, and he booted a season-high four treys in the previous meeting with the Giants. New York has allowed multiple field goals in three straight, a total of eight in that span. So maybe Henery sends Andy Reid out not with a bang but with a bunch of field goals.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 330,3
RB Darren Sproles
RB Pierre Thomas 40 4-30
WR Marques Colston 5-70,1
WR Lance Moore 5-90,1
TE Jimmy Graham 6-80,1
TE Benjamin Watson 2-30
PK Garrett Hartley 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Times are tough in the Big Easy though getting back coaches can help. The reality here is that the Saints defense is bad. And not "NFC South" bad. Not even 2012 one-of-32-teams bad. Bad as in all of recorded history. No team has ever allowed over 400 yards off offense over the first seven games of any season. Ever. That is a word you do not throw around casually ' "ever". And it applies in this case because this is the worst defense ever. Against both rushing AND passing. It has led to delightful shootouts to be sure.

Drew Brees comes off his worst game of the year when he "only" produced 213 yards and two scores in Denver. Brees already has 20 passing scores on the year and five efforts over 300 yards. In a home game he has never thrown fewer than three touchdowns. Brees fantasy value has been richly increased thanks to playing with a team that has no defense and allows at least 24 points to every opponent so far this year. Shootouts every week mean good things.

Darren Sproles helps the stats with four receiving touchdowns this year but no runner matters for the Saints. With weekly scoreboard deficits to chase, the Saints do not have the luxury of running the ball much and they split up the workload into three pieces anyway. Over the first seven weeks, only twice has any runner been given more than nine carries. Aside from Sproles in a league rewarding reception points, there is no decent fantasy play in this unit.

Jimmy Graham tumbled this year with a bad ankle but was able to return last week and caught five passes for 63 yards and one score to prove he is healthy again. Granted it was almost entirely in garbage time but regardless Graham is reliable again. His yardage and catches are down this year even when he wasn't injured but he's scoring in almost every game that he's played.

Going against Denver last week produced lower stats for the wide receivers but back at home should resume their more productive ways. Marques Colston was on a three game scoring streak that included three touchdowns in Tampa Bay. Lance Moore is consistent enough with 60+ yards in most games though he scored just once since the season opener. The reality is that Darren Sproles actually ends up as another wideout in the way he is used.

The eagles defense hasn't faced many decent passers and yet still gave up two 300-yard games and multiple touchdowns to most. Their rushing defense has been solid and only allowed one rushing touchdown all year. Expect this to once again go through Drew Brees. The Saints are due for a "stand up and fight" game after getting blasted so badly in Denver but the defense is so bad that it's unthinkable that a shootout can be avoided even at home against potentially a rookie quarterback in his first ever start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 9 3 10 28 27
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 13 10 20 5 30 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO CAR 0000032020 *****
Brees has his final game of the year and it comes at home. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but the rushing effort should come into play this week as it always does against CAR. Brees is a must start regardless but may not be as prolific this week as he is in most.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, NO CAR 1007701000 ****
Sproles had his biggest game of the year in the last meeting with the Panthers when he caught 13 passes for 128 yards. He's a solid play this week and always benefits from the good corner play of the Panthers that forces Brees to check down to him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram, NO CAR 701000000 ****
Ingram has been on a roll for the last month and was good for 16-53 and one score versus the Panthers in week two. He's getting 13 carries every week now and faces the weakness of the Panthers defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marques Colston, NO CAR 004500000 ****
Colston was held to only 3-49 in the last meeting and CAR has allowed only one TD to a WR over the last five road games. Rely on moderate yardage here and anything more would be unusual for the Panthers to allow.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Lance Moore, NO CAR 004400000 ***
Moore was held to 2-30 in the last meeting with CAR and he's too inconsistent to merit a fantasy start anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, NO CAR 005701000 ****
Graham turned in 7-71 and a TD in the last meeting but has been butterfingers for the last two months because of his wrist. The Panthers gave up a score to a TE in the last two road games and Graham is due. He's a must start every week regardless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, NO CAR 003300000 *
Not a recommended start anyway and with a potential starting QB from the practice squad even less.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Garrett Hartley, NO CAR 3333 ****
Nice start for Hartley against a team that ranks in the bottom five against kickers.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t