FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: TB 24, OAK 26 (Line: OAK by 1)

Players to Watch: Doug Martin, Darren McFadden

The 3-4 Buccaneers come off their biggest win of the year when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota but are still 1-2 on the road. Notable here is that the Buccaneers have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games. The 3-4 Raiders are 2-1 at home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 80,1 3-40
WR Vincent Jackson 5-90,1
WR Louis Murphy 3-40
TE Brandon Myers 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers come off their best effort of the season when they took down the Vikings with a balanced offensive effort. At 3-4 they still lag the better playoff contenders but have one of the better schedules left to play and have already seen their toughest matchups go by. Two more games versus the Falcons will be major challenges as well as the tilt in Denver but otherwise the Bucs should prove very competitive in all other games.

Josh Freeman has been scary good for the last three weeks and while home stands against the Chiefs and Saints were expected to be easy, posting 262 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota was impressive. Freeman passed for nine scores over the last three games with just one interception. He has 14 scores on the year and is enjoying improved rushing support. The addition of Vincent Jackson that has helped open up the entire passing effort.

Doug Martin was generally decent in most games with around 100 or so total yards in most. But he had never produced a 100 yard rushing effort until playing in Minnesota in what might been his toughest defense and venue. He ran for 135 yards and one score and added 79 yards and a second touchdown on his three receptions last Thursday. He scored on a 64-yard reception and broke off a 41-yard run in the game. LeGarrette Blount was allowed eight carries in Minny but only gained 16 yards and he was not used at the goal line last week. Blount failed to score on four tries in the Saints game.

Vincent Jackson was held to 40 yards by the Vikings but already notched three games over 100 yards and scored five times this season. He can be shut down by a really good corner but then excels against below average secondaries. His presence has really allowed Mike Williams to rekindle a career that seemed to have peaked as a rookie. Williams scored four times this year and has two efforts topping 100 yards. No other receivers matter here though Dallas Clark is getting a few more looks in recent games.

The Raiders always allow at least one passing score and most turn in decent yardage as well. At home they have only given up one rushing score and they just shut down Jamaal Charles sort of. There is nothing special about the Raiders defense normally and they have spun through mostly teams with marginal rushing attacks anyway. This week will show if the Minnesota game was just a freak high for Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 8 6 29 11 15
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 21 14 22 31 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, TB @CAR 0000025012 ***
McCown opened the season with 183 and 2 against the Panthers, but Carolina's pass defense has been twice as good at home in allowing eight passing scores in six home games as opposed to 17 scoring strikes in seven road tilts. Keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @CAR 4001100000 ***
Apart from a TD against the soft Bengals run D we've seen little from Martin that warrants fantasy attention. A trip to Carolina, where the Panthers have allowed only three RB rushing scores in six home games, doesn't look like a kick-start for his comeback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charles Sims, TB @CAR 1003200000 ***
Remember when Sims was the next big thing? That, uh, hasn't really panned out. He's a bit player on a bad offense with a bad matchup this week; nothing to like fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @CAR 007701000 ***
Though it's been a month since Evans topped 50 yards in a game he's still scored three TDs in that span. He wasn't nearly the focal point of the Bucs' offense when he faced Carolina back in Week 1, so an uptick over his 5-37 in that outing is to be expected. And given his hot streak, something far more fantasy-worthy, too.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @CAR 005800000 ***
Don't forget about VJax just yet; despite not having scored since Week 10, Jackson has a pair of 100-yard games running as Mike Evans' wingman. It's not an easy matchup, but Jackson is heavily enough involved that he's at least a fringe fantasy prospect with upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB @CAR 002200000 ***
ASJ can't seem to get or stay healthy; it's been a couple weeks since he played and six games since he scored. If he goes he makes an intriguing play against a Carolina D that's surrendered four TE TDs in the past six games, but with all Tampa tight ends you have to check the injury report first to see if they'll be available for duty.
Update: ASJ is listed as questionable with his back injury, which means you have to check the pregame inactives to have the necessary information on his availability.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @CAR 1111 ****
Murray scored just two points when these teams met back in Week 1, and he hasn't scored a whole lot more since, failing to reach double-digits in any game this year. You can do better.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 250,2
RB Darren McFadden 50,1 4-30
WR James Jones 5-70,1
WR Denarius Moore 6-100,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 4 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a dominating win over the sinking Chiefs for their first back-to-back wins of the year. The defense has improved at least marginally since the start of the season and now the offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm at least when facing weaker defenses which happens again this week. With the Bucs showing up now and the Saints coming in two weeks later, the Raiders offense will at least look much improved. Throw in remaining home games versus the Browns and Chiefs and owning a few Raiders can help a fantasy team reach their championship.

Carson Palmer throws a score in nearly every game but rarely more than one. His yardage tends to fluctuate but half of his efforts have been around 300 yards or more. With nine touchdowns on the season against five interceptions, Palmer isn't winning you any league championship but if used judiciously he has the occasional spot start in him. This week could be one of those weeks.

Darren McFadden comes off his best game of the year with 114 rushing yards that required 29 carries in Kansas City and he added his typical four receptions for 23 yards. Oddly enough, his only two touchdowns went against the Steelers and Falcons - clearly his toughest matchups so far. Mike Goodson is hampered by a turf toe he just picked up which should ensure that McFadden continues to see a heavy load when possible.

Brandon Myers is a wonderfully consistent tight end with 40 to 60 yards each week and never a touchdown. He's reliable but only for moderate stats each week.

Denarius Moore has finally emerged as the clear #1 wideout with a score in each of the last three weeks and usually in excess of 70 yards. He's good for eight or more targets in every game and has become the most reliable receiver for Palmer. Darrius Heyward-Bey scored last week as well but on his only catch. None of the other receivers matter and only Rod Streater has ever scored besides the two starters.

The Buccaneers bring in a soft secondary and give up a rushing touchdown to every road opponent. This will be a decent game for McFadden but were it last year, the expectations would be for a monster effort. Getting good from McFadden is success enough this season.

The Buccaneers also vary greatly in what they allow passers though it is almost always high yardage. Facing Drew Brees and Eli Manning ruined their ranking as they generally allow yards and few scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 16 24 15 4 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 15 30 12 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @KC 0000017002 ***
254 and 3 against the Niners is nothing to sneeze at, but it's also Carr's first fantasy-relevant game in a month. And now he's off to KC to face a Chiefs defense that held him to 174 and 1 three weeks ago. You have better fantasy options at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK @KC 6002100000 ***
The vaunted Chiefs run D has now allowed four straight 100-yard rushers, a streak extended by Murray's 112 and 2 on just four carries in Week 12. And it's not like CJ Anderson and Kerwynn Williams were household names coming into the season, either. Touchdowns are still hard to come by against KC, but it looks like Murray will get the touches necessary to carve out a performance league fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @KC 004600000 ***
It's been two months since the Raiders had a wideout go for more than 70 yards. That, plus a dearth of passing scores, makes it difficult for any receiver to generate fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @KC 006500000 ***
Jones hasn't produced 50-plus receiving yards in a month and a half, and a date with a stout Chiefs secondary isn't likely to rectify the situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @KC 005500000 ***
After a sluggish start the Chiefs have zoned in on shutting down tight ends, allowing only one TE TD in the past six weeks. Rivera is coming off a 7-109-1 outing, but after generating just one catch for eight yards in the earlier meeting with KC expectations should be lowered.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @KC 3300 ***
You can do better than the half-dozen points Seabass will give you.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

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