FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: TB 24, OAK 26 (Line: OAK by 1)

Players to Watch: Doug Martin, Darren McFadden

The 3-4 Buccaneers come off their biggest win of the year when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota but are still 1-2 on the road. Notable here is that the Buccaneers have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games. The 3-4 Raiders are 2-1 at home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 220,2
RB Doug Martin 80,1 3-40
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 3-20
WR DeSean Jackson 6-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers come off their best effort of the season when they took down the Vikings with a balanced offensive effort. At 3-4 they still lag the better playoff contenders but have one of the better schedules left to play and have already seen their toughest matchups go by. Two more games versus the Falcons will be major challenges as well as the tilt in Denver but otherwise the Bucs should prove very competitive in all other games.

Josh Freeman has been scary good for the last three weeks and while home stands against the Chiefs and Saints were expected to be easy, posting 262 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota was impressive. Freeman passed for nine scores over the last three games with just one interception. He has 14 scores on the year and is enjoying improved rushing support. The addition of Vincent Jackson that has helped open up the entire passing effort.

Doug Martin was generally decent in most games with around 100 or so total yards in most. But he had never produced a 100 yard rushing effort until playing in Minnesota in what might been his toughest defense and venue. He ran for 135 yards and one score and added 79 yards and a second touchdown on his three receptions last Thursday. He scored on a 64-yard reception and broke off a 41-yard run in the game. LeGarrette Blount was allowed eight carries in Minny but only gained 16 yards and he was not used at the goal line last week. Blount failed to score on four tries in the Saints game.

Vincent Jackson was held to 40 yards by the Vikings but already notched three games over 100 yards and scored five times this season. He can be shut down by a really good corner but then excels against below average secondaries. His presence has really allowed Mike Williams to rekindle a career that seemed to have peaked as a rookie. Williams scored four times this year and has two efforts topping 100 yards. No other receivers matter here though Dallas Clark is getting a few more looks in recent games.

The Raiders always allow at least one passing score and most turn in decent yardage as well. At home they have only given up one rushing score and they just shut down Jamaal Charles sort of. There is nothing special about the Raiders defense normally and they have spun through mostly teams with marginal rushing attacks anyway. This week will show if the Minnesota game was just a freak high for Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 8 6 29 11 15
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 21 14 22 31 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB @ARI 10000030011 ***
The Cards present a top-eight matchup for Winston. Quarterbacks have averaged two TDs strikes but only a modest 245.8 passing yards against Arizona. In Week 2 last season, Winston was awful vs. this defense, tossing one TD and four picks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ARI 7011100000 ***
Exactly two teams present tougher matchups than Arizona. The position has averaged 78.2 rushing yards and 27.8 through the air, scoring once every 65 combined touches. Consider this an optimistic projection, but he ran well last week and should be closer to being in game shape.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB @ARI 005801000 ***
Defenses have to pick their poison between Jackson and Mike Evans. Only two teams have ceded more points per play to wideouts in 2017, and Arizona is the sixth-softest defense of this position in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @ARI 006600000 ***
This is a top-six matchup rating in everything but receptions granted per game, where wideouts come in 14th vs. the Cards. Humphries finished with 12.7 PPR points on a 6-67-0 line in Week 2 last year when these squads battled.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @ARI 005500000 ***
In Week 2, at Arizona last year, Evans went for 70 and a TD on six catches. While this is a midrange matchup for receptions allowed, wideouts have made the most of their touches and average the sixth-highest figure in yards and both fantasy points systems.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @ARI 005600000 ***
Despite Arizona given up two TDs on only 23 catches, this is a squarely neutral matchup rating. Brate is a go-to weapon for Jameis Winston, so at least there is that working in his favor.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @ARI 2222 ***
Murray replaces Nick Folk after his 0-for-3 showing in Week 5. Arizona has been generous against kickers, yielding 10 three-pointers and 11 TD-encore kicks. This is Week 6's 10th-best matchup.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 4-20
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Sebastian Janikowski 4 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a dominating win over the sinking Chiefs for their first back-to-back wins of the year. The defense has improved at least marginally since the start of the season and now the offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm at least when facing weaker defenses which happens again this week. With the Bucs showing up now and the Saints coming in two weeks later, the Raiders offense will at least look much improved. Throw in remaining home games versus the Browns and Chiefs and owning a few Raiders can help a fantasy team reach their championship.

Carson Palmer throws a score in nearly every game but rarely more than one. His yardage tends to fluctuate but half of his efforts have been around 300 yards or more. With nine touchdowns on the season against five interceptions, Palmer isn't winning you any league championship but if used judiciously he has the occasional spot start in him. This week could be one of those weeks.

Darren McFadden comes off his best game of the year with 114 rushing yards that required 29 carries in Kansas City and he added his typical four receptions for 23 yards. Oddly enough, his only two touchdowns went against the Steelers and Falcons - clearly his toughest matchups so far. Mike Goodson is hampered by a turf toe he just picked up which should ensure that McFadden continues to see a heavy load when possible.

Brandon Myers is a wonderfully consistent tight end with 40 to 60 yards each week and never a touchdown. He's reliable but only for moderate stats each week.

Denarius Moore has finally emerged as the clear #1 wideout with a score in each of the last three weeks and usually in excess of 70 yards. He's good for eight or more targets in every game and has become the most reliable receiver for Palmer. Darrius Heyward-Bey scored last week as well but on his only catch. None of the other receivers matter and only Rod Streater has ever scored besides the two starters.

The Buccaneers bring in a soft secondary and give up a rushing touchdown to every road opponent. This will be a decent game for McFadden but were it last year, the expectations would be for a monster effort. Getting good from McFadden is success enough this season.

The Buccaneers also vary greatly in what they allow passers though it is almost always high yardage. Facing Drew Brees and Eli Manning ruined their ranking as they generally allow yards and few scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 16 24 15 4 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 15 30 12 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK LAC 0000020011 ***
Carr is expected to return but may not be 100 percent. The Raiders could rely more on the ground game in this one. Los Angeles has given up the fourth-fewest yards per game (214.2) and positive-leaning figures otherwise to QBs in 2017. Carr threw three TDs in two games, also tossing a pair of picks, vs. the then-San Diego Chargers in 2016.

Update: Injecting a little confidence into the situation, Carr was removed from the injury report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK LAC 801000000 ***
No team has coughed up more rushing yards per outing than the Chargers (151), but only three of the 138 carries against have scored (19th). This is still good enough to help create the sixth-best non-PPR matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK LAC 2002200000 ***
The Bolts have ceded the most yards per game in football (184.4), although most of which has come on the ground (151/gm). The 4.4 receptions allowed per contest rate as the ninth-fewest permitted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK LAC 006701000 ***
Crabtree scored in both games with the Bolts in 2016 but wasn't dominant. The Chargers have given up a TD catch every 7.1 catches, allowing five in eight games, to the position. The return of Derek Carr bodes well for Crabtree.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK LAC 004400000 ***
Roberts isn't much of a contributor for fantasy purposes without a touchdown ... at least this matchup is prime if gamers are feeling frisky. LA has been scored on every 7.1 catches by the position, which is second worst in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK LAC 001100000 *
With just four catches in the last three games combined, Cooper has fallen on hard times. He was strong in Week 5 last year, going for 138 and a touch on six snares at home vs. the Chargers. In San Diego, he was shut down (1-28-0). Derek Carr's expected return has to help, but it's easy to understand why Cooper has become unplayable for most owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK LAC 004400000 ***
Derek Carr's return may actually hamper Cook's fantasy value. The Chargers have allowed practically nothing to the position to boot. Only 16 catches have gone to TEs, and none of them have scored.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK LAC 2222 ***
The Bolts have granted kickers 22 total attempts, with only one field goal on 11 tries not making it. This is the 11th-easiest opponent to exploit based on the first five week's worth of data.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

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