FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: TB 24, OAK 26 (Line: OAK by 1)

Players to Watch: Doug Martin, Darren McFadden

The 3-4 Buccaneers come off their biggest win of the year when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota but are still 1-2 on the road. Notable here is that the Buccaneers have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games. The 3-4 Raiders are 2-1 at home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 220,2
RB Doug Martin 80,1 3-40
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 3-20
WR DeSean Jackson 6-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers come off their best effort of the season when they took down the Vikings with a balanced offensive effort. At 3-4 they still lag the better playoff contenders but have one of the better schedules left to play and have already seen their toughest matchups go by. Two more games versus the Falcons will be major challenges as well as the tilt in Denver but otherwise the Bucs should prove very competitive in all other games.

Josh Freeman has been scary good for the last three weeks and while home stands against the Chiefs and Saints were expected to be easy, posting 262 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota was impressive. Freeman passed for nine scores over the last three games with just one interception. He has 14 scores on the year and is enjoying improved rushing support. The addition of Vincent Jackson that has helped open up the entire passing effort.

Doug Martin was generally decent in most games with around 100 or so total yards in most. But he had never produced a 100 yard rushing effort until playing in Minnesota in what might been his toughest defense and venue. He ran for 135 yards and one score and added 79 yards and a second touchdown on his three receptions last Thursday. He scored on a 64-yard reception and broke off a 41-yard run in the game. LeGarrette Blount was allowed eight carries in Minny but only gained 16 yards and he was not used at the goal line last week. Blount failed to score on four tries in the Saints game.

Vincent Jackson was held to 40 yards by the Vikings but already notched three games over 100 yards and scored five times this season. He can be shut down by a really good corner but then excels against below average secondaries. His presence has really allowed Mike Williams to rekindle a career that seemed to have peaked as a rookie. Williams scored four times this year and has two efforts topping 100 yards. No other receivers matter here though Dallas Clark is getting a few more looks in recent games.

The Raiders always allow at least one passing score and most turn in decent yardage as well. At home they have only given up one rushing score and they just shut down Jamaal Charles sort of. There is nothing special about the Raiders defense normally and they have spun through mostly teams with marginal rushing attacks anyway. This week will show if the Minnesota game was just a freak high for Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 8 6 29 11 15
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 21 14 22 31 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB DET 0000030020 ***
Detroit is one of a trio of teams that has allowed three rushing TDs over the past five weeks, which is hard to bank on for fantasy purposes. Removing those scores takes this from the third-best matchup down to No. 17. Only six passing scores have been thrown against the Lions since Week 8.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB DET 3011100000 ***
Barber broke out in a big way last week, going for 143 offensive yards. The Buccaneers may opt to stick with the hot hand even as Doug Martin appears likely to return from a concussion. The Lions have permitted running backs to trample them in all facets. This is the No. 2 matchup for finding rushing TD success, and it's seventh for rushing yards allowed per game. Through the air, the position has managed the 10th-most grabs for the fifth-highest average of yards gained.

Update: Martin is poised to return this week, but how much he will handle the ball is unclear. Barber should remain useful but knocked a few pegs down the ladder.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB DET 5002200000 *
Martin fully practiced Wednesday, which means he is virtually a lock to return to action this week. Whether he regains his starting spot remains unclear. Check back Friday for more details on what to expect.

Update: He is off of the injury report after fully practicing Thursday and Friday. Trusting him in a fantasy lineup is asking for trouble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB DET 005701000 ***
Just one of the past 62 receptions by a wideout against Detroit has scored, which is the toughest rate going. The Lions have allowed the eighth-fewest points in PPR and sixth-lowest average in standard scoring over the past five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB DET 005600000 ***
Since Week 8, Detroit has given up one wide receiver touchdown over 62 receptions. No team has been better in this area. It's the 13th-best matchup for receptions and the 21st for yardage gained per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB DET 003300000 ***
Humphries has averaged fewer than three catches a game over the past five weeks and isn't worthy of fantasy consideration with what is a low-end matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB DET 004601000 ***
It turns out all Brate needed to get on track was his BFF Jameis and a questionable injury tag. The Lions have given up four TDs over the past five games against this position, making it a top-four matchup in both scoring systems. Brate should be a solid play in Week 14.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB DET 1133 ***
Four of the 27 kicks faced by the Lions have been off the mark. A trio of field goal attempts failed to convert. The 17 PATs faced represents the third-most per game. Had all of the kicks made it between the pipes, this would be the No. 5 matchup instead of the 13th.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 4-20
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Sebastian Janikowski 4 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a dominating win over the sinking Chiefs for their first back-to-back wins of the year. The defense has improved at least marginally since the start of the season and now the offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm at least when facing weaker defenses which happens again this week. With the Bucs showing up now and the Saints coming in two weeks later, the Raiders offense will at least look much improved. Throw in remaining home games versus the Browns and Chiefs and owning a few Raiders can help a fantasy team reach their championship.

Carson Palmer throws a score in nearly every game but rarely more than one. His yardage tends to fluctuate but half of his efforts have been around 300 yards or more. With nine touchdowns on the season against five interceptions, Palmer isn't winning you any league championship but if used judiciously he has the occasional spot start in him. This week could be one of those weeks.

Darren McFadden comes off his best game of the year with 114 rushing yards that required 29 carries in Kansas City and he added his typical four receptions for 23 yards. Oddly enough, his only two touchdowns went against the Steelers and Falcons - clearly his toughest matchups so far. Mike Goodson is hampered by a turf toe he just picked up which should ensure that McFadden continues to see a heavy load when possible.

Brandon Myers is a wonderfully consistent tight end with 40 to 60 yards each week and never a touchdown. He's reliable but only for moderate stats each week.

Denarius Moore has finally emerged as the clear #1 wideout with a score in each of the last three weeks and usually in excess of 70 yards. He's good for eight or more targets in every game and has become the most reliable receiver for Palmer. Darrius Heyward-Bey scored last week as well but on his only catch. None of the other receivers matter and only Rod Streater has ever scored besides the two starters.

The Buccaneers bring in a soft secondary and give up a rushing touchdown to every road opponent. This will be a decent game for McFadden but were it last year, the expectations would be for a monster effort. Getting good from McFadden is success enough this season.

The Buccaneers also vary greatly in what they allow passers though it is almost always high yardage. Facing Drew Brees and Eli Manning ruined their ranking as they generally allow yards and few scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 16 24 15 4 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 15 30 12 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @KC 0000027010 ***
Carr's best game -- by a mile -- came against the Chiefs in Week 7. This time around it is in Arrowhead, but it's hard to ignore that he threw for 417 yards and a trio of touchdowns in the last one. Michael Crabtree returns from suspension, and Amari Cooper has a chance to come back, as well. Since Week 8, KC has permitted the 10th-most fantasy points if you include three rushing TDs against by QBs, but the matchup drops to being the seventh-worst opponent without them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK @KC 5012200000 ***
Lynch carried the ball twice for nine yards and was booted from the last meeting. On the ground, running backs have gone for 103.3 yards and a TD every 40.7 carries, or three times in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @KC 2002200000 ***
Receiving work against the Chiefs has been rather uneventful. The running back position has managed just 4.5 catches for 30 yards. One of the 18 total grabs has found the end zone over the past four games. Richard caught four passes for 45 yards in the previous meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK @KC 004601000 ***
It was Amari Cooper who went off the last time these teams faced each other. Crabtree also scored, but he finished with a meager 24 yards. Standout cornerback Marcus Peters has been suspended for one game by Andy Reid for tossing a flag into the stands last week. Since Week 8, the Chiefs have granted the third-most catches and yards per game to receivers, and the position has scored three times in that four-game span.

Update: Cooper didn't practice the first two days and progressed to being limited Friday. He cleared the concussion protocol but remains hampered by an ankle injury. He is questionable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @KC 004600000 *
Cooper (ankle) is a TBD for Week 14. He is out of the concussion protocol. The last time these teams played, he came away with a pair of touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, OAK @KC 003400000 ***
Kansas City is a top-10 fantasy matchup in both scoring formats, and this defense will be without star CB Marcus Peters. Patterson has come to life, relatively speaking, in recent weeks. He posted double figures in fantasy points the past two games. Amari Cooper's status will impact CP's involvement. Patterson didn't practice Wednesday with a hip injury.

Update: Patterson was limited Thursday and Friday, which means he is closer to playing with his questionable tag.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @KC 002200000 ***
Roberts was targeted six times in the last game but caught just one ball. The Raiders likely won't need him if Amari Cooper dresses. The matchup is positive, but gamers can find safer upside elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @KC 003400000 **
Cook has hauled in a dozen balls over the last four games without getting into the end zone. The Raiders could be without Amari Cooper again, but it didn't much matter last week for Cook. He has 10 targets, two receptions and 10 yards in his last two games combined. KC gave up 107 yards to him in Week 7, though.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK @KC 2222 ***
Kickers have gone 8-for-9 on both types of kicks over the past four games against the Chiefs. Tavecchio made all four XPAs and one-third of his trio of field goal attempts in Week 7 vs. KC.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t