FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: TB 24, OAK 26 (Line: OAK by 1)

Players to Watch: Doug Martin, Darren McFadden

The 3-4 Buccaneers come off their biggest win of the year when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota but are still 1-2 on the road. Notable here is that the Buccaneers have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games. The 3-4 Raiders are 2-1 at home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 220,2
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 3-20
WR DeSean Jackson 6-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers come off their best effort of the season when they took down the Vikings with a balanced offensive effort. At 3-4 they still lag the better playoff contenders but have one of the better schedules left to play and have already seen their toughest matchups go by. Two more games versus the Falcons will be major challenges as well as the tilt in Denver but otherwise the Bucs should prove very competitive in all other games.

Josh Freeman has been scary good for the last three weeks and while home stands against the Chiefs and Saints were expected to be easy, posting 262 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota was impressive. Freeman passed for nine scores over the last three games with just one interception. He has 14 scores on the year and is enjoying improved rushing support. The addition of Vincent Jackson that has helped open up the entire passing effort.

Doug Martin was generally decent in most games with around 100 or so total yards in most. But he had never produced a 100 yard rushing effort until playing in Minnesota in what might been his toughest defense and venue. He ran for 135 yards and one score and added 79 yards and a second touchdown on his three receptions last Thursday. He scored on a 64-yard reception and broke off a 41-yard run in the game. LeGarrette Blount was allowed eight carries in Minny but only gained 16 yards and he was not used at the goal line last week. Blount failed to score on four tries in the Saints game.

Vincent Jackson was held to 40 yards by the Vikings but already notched three games over 100 yards and scored five times this season. He can be shut down by a really good corner but then excels against below average secondaries. His presence has really allowed Mike Williams to rekindle a career that seemed to have peaked as a rookie. Williams scored four times this year and has two efforts topping 100 yards. No other receivers matter here though Dallas Clark is getting a few more looks in recent games.

The Raiders always allow at least one passing score and most turn in decent yardage as well. At home they have only given up one rushing score and they just shut down Jamaal Charles sort of. There is nothing special about the Raiders defense normally and they have spun through mostly teams with marginal rushing attacks anyway. This week will show if the Minnesota game was just a freak high for Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 8 6 29 11 15
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 21 14 22 31 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB PIT 10000034040 ***
Pittsburgh has actually limited yardage to a respectable degree at 261.5, or the 18th-most, but has been peppered with TD passes (7) at the highest frequency (one in 5.4 passes). Fitzpatrick should continue his amazing season against the second-best matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB PIT 5001100000 ***
Barber just hasn't done enough to deserve a fantasy spot in a lineup. The Steelers have given up just the seventh-most fantasy points. This is the second-worst matchup for receptions and third-hardest to generate yardage through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB PIT 0081001000 ***
Evans, whose track record of being good every other season is interesting, is off to a strong start in 2018 (17-230-2). The matchup appears destined to be a high-scoring affair. Pittsburgh was shredded through the air in Week 2 and could struggle to contain all that is the Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Tampa offense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB PIT 004801000 ***
Three straight weeks with a big game? Sure, why not! The Buccaneers face a Steelers defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points in standard scoring, and D-Jax draws an opponent that has permitted the second-most points per catch -- both stats are right up Jackson's alley.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Godwin, TB PIT 005601000 ***
Godwin had sleeper appeal before the year and is living up to it. The Buccaneers have generated a tremendous amount of offense in two games, and he has been quite involved. Pittsburgh has given up a receiver touchdown every 5.8 catches (ninth-easiest rate to exploit). Trust him once again in fantasy lineups.

Update: Godwin was limited Thursday and Friday. This game is Monday, so check back for a status update.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE O.J. Howard, TB PIT 004701000 ***
Two of the 11 receptions against the Steelers by tight ends have found paydirt. Howard is a threat to score each time he touches the ball. The yardage (10th most) and reception (10th) figures against PIT favor Howard.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, TB PIT 3344 ***
Catanzaro has nailed nine of 10 PATs and two of three field goal tries. He faces a Steelers unit that has given up the third-most point-afters and the second-fewest field goal attempts.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 4-20
RB Doug Martin 80,1 3-40
WR Brandon LaFell
WR Jordy Nelson 3-30
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a dominating win over the sinking Chiefs for their first back-to-back wins of the year. The defense has improved at least marginally since the start of the season and now the offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm at least when facing weaker defenses which happens again this week. With the Bucs showing up now and the Saints coming in two weeks later, the Raiders offense will at least look much improved. Throw in remaining home games versus the Browns and Chiefs and owning a few Raiders can help a fantasy team reach their championship.

Carson Palmer throws a score in nearly every game but rarely more than one. His yardage tends to fluctuate but half of his efforts have been around 300 yards or more. With nine touchdowns on the season against five interceptions, Palmer isn't winning you any league championship but if used judiciously he has the occasional spot start in him. This week could be one of those weeks.

Darren McFadden comes off his best game of the year with 114 rushing yards that required 29 carries in Kansas City and he added his typical four receptions for 23 yards. Oddly enough, his only two touchdowns went against the Steelers and Falcons - clearly his toughest matchups so far. Mike Goodson is hampered by a turf toe he just picked up which should ensure that McFadden continues to see a heavy load when possible.

Brandon Myers is a wonderfully consistent tight end with 40 to 60 yards each week and never a touchdown. He's reliable but only for moderate stats each week.

Denarius Moore has finally emerged as the clear #1 wideout with a score in each of the last three weeks and usually in excess of 70 yards. He's good for eight or more targets in every game and has become the most reliable receiver for Palmer. Darrius Heyward-Bey scored last week as well but on his only catch. None of the other receivers matter and only Rod Streater has ever scored besides the two starters.

The Buccaneers bring in a soft secondary and give up a rushing touchdown to every road opponent. This will be a decent game for McFadden but were it last year, the expectations would be for a monster effort. Getting good from McFadden is success enough this season.

The Buccaneers also vary greatly in what they allow passers though it is almost always high yardage. Facing Drew Brees and Eli Manning ruined their ranking as they generally allow yards and few scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 16 24 15 4 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 15 30 12 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @MIA 0000027011 ***
Miami has employed a softer defense between the 20s but has stiffened near the stripe. Carr faces a team that has allowed the 12th-most yards per game (277) but only the third-lowest ratio of receptions to touchdowns from the hand of a quarterback. Five passes have been picked vs. just one touchdown allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK @MIA 601000000 ***
Running backs have managed 71 rushing yards and only one touchdown on the last 43 carries (third-strongest defense) against the Dolphins. Lynch is always a scoring threat in the red zone and has low-end RB2 or strong flex appeal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, OAK @MIA 2002200000 ***
Martin has been used as a change-of-pace and spell for Lynch with little success. Keep him out of fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @MIA 004400000 *
Miami has given up only 13 receptions for 118 yards to RBs -- 11th and 10th most, respectively -- with one of them finding the end zone. Richard is never better than a wild gamble in all formats, but the numbers align for a flex play for desperate owners or DFSers in deep contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Martavis Bryant, OAK @MIA 003501000 **
Bryant caught all four of his targets for 30 yards in his Week 2 debut. The veteran is a coin flip based on his ability to stretch the field but rather limited role. Miami has prevented receivers from doing any notable damage, giving up 22 catches (23rd) for 281 yards (20th) but no scores against two lowly passing attacks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @MIA 007900000 ***
Cooper showed up in a big way for PPR owners last week after a quiet start to the year. The Dolphins have not faced much in the way of a challenge at receiver so far (TEN, NYJ), so this one could go either way. The stats suggest Miami is a tough defense. This one will go a long way to confirm or deny such data.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, OAK @MIA 003300000 ***
So much for all of the hype surrounding Nelson this summer ... in his defense, the two matchups have not been favorable. Miami, on paper, is not, either, though the first two games of its season brought the low-end passing attacks of Tennessee and the Jets. Nelson is a wild gamble at this point, but if he is going to get something done, this may be the week for it to happen. Our projection is conservative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @MIA 004500000 ***
Through two weeks (huge sample size, we know), Cook rules the tight end roost with 35.9 PPR points. He did so much of the damage in Week 1 (9-180-0). The Dolphins have granted 155 yards on 10 catches to the position without allowing a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, OAK @MIA 2222 ***
Miami has granted kickers only three extra point tries and four field goal attempts, combing for just the eighth-fewest allowed over the first two games of 2018.

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t