FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

Prediction: TB 24, OAK 26 (Line: OAK by 1)

Players to Watch: Doug Martin, Darren McFadden

The 3-4 Buccaneers come off their biggest win of the year when they beat the Vikings in Minnesota but are still 1-2 on the road. Notable here is that the Buccaneers have scored 28+ points in each of their last three games. The 3-4 Raiders are 2-1 at home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD -----
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR -----
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL -----
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 220,2
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 3-20
WR DeSean Jackson 6-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers come off their best effort of the season when they took down the Vikings with a balanced offensive effort. At 3-4 they still lag the better playoff contenders but have one of the better schedules left to play and have already seen their toughest matchups go by. Two more games versus the Falcons will be major challenges as well as the tilt in Denver but otherwise the Bucs should prove very competitive in all other games.

Josh Freeman has been scary good for the last three weeks and while home stands against the Chiefs and Saints were expected to be easy, posting 262 yards and three touchdowns in Minnesota was impressive. Freeman passed for nine scores over the last three games with just one interception. He has 14 scores on the year and is enjoying improved rushing support. The addition of Vincent Jackson that has helped open up the entire passing effort.

Doug Martin was generally decent in most games with around 100 or so total yards in most. But he had never produced a 100 yard rushing effort until playing in Minnesota in what might been his toughest defense and venue. He ran for 135 yards and one score and added 79 yards and a second touchdown on his three receptions last Thursday. He scored on a 64-yard reception and broke off a 41-yard run in the game. LeGarrette Blount was allowed eight carries in Minny but only gained 16 yards and he was not used at the goal line last week. Blount failed to score on four tries in the Saints game.

Vincent Jackson was held to 40 yards by the Vikings but already notched three games over 100 yards and scored five times this season. He can be shut down by a really good corner but then excels against below average secondaries. His presence has really allowed Mike Williams to rekindle a career that seemed to have peaked as a rookie. Williams scored four times this year and has two efforts topping 100 yards. No other receivers matter here though Dallas Clark is getting a few more looks in recent games.

The Raiders always allow at least one passing score and most turn in decent yardage as well. At home they have only given up one rushing score and they just shut down Jamaal Charles sort of. There is nothing special about the Raiders defense normally and they have spun through mostly teams with marginal rushing attacks anyway. This week will show if the Minnesota game was just a freak high for Martin.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 15 8 6 29 11 15
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 21 14 22 31 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB @BAL 40100021012 ***
Baltimore has presented a terrible matchup all year and should deter gamers from taking a chance on Winston. He has only one 300-yard game in his last five appearances and has a pair of scoring strikes of each of his last four. He's a sound play in two-QB situations but should be benched if advancing to your league title is at play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB @BAL 4002100000 ***
The matchup is harsh, and Barber should be kept far away from lineups this week. No team has been tougher against the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB @BAL 1004300000 ***
Basically one in 20 receptions against the Ravens has scored by a running back this year, and this is the worst matchup overall in PPR. Rodgers has extremely thin appeal for PPR only, and there is little reason to include him in lineups for playoff matchups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @BAL 006600000 ***
The Ravens have been strong against WRs in 2018, giving up only nine scores over 13 games and 144 receptions. Just four teams have been better in PPR, and the high score was 29.9 PPR points in Week 2. Tyreek Hill went for 22.5 last week, but a good chunk came from one play. Evans is playable, but there is a lot more downside than up in this one. Baltimore has given up just one WR touchdown since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @BAL 004500000 ***
Humphries has five scores in his last seven games and has seen at least six targets in the last three games. He faces a brutal matchup in Week 15 and is best left in reserve without a clearer option. PPR gamers can consider him a low-tier flex play out of desperation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Godwin, TB @BAL 003400000 ***
Godwin typically offers nothing of note without going into the end zone -- something the Ravens have been stellar against of late. In the last five weeks, only John Ross has scored. The second-year receiver has value in DFS only this week, and that is a stretch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @BAL 002201000 **
Brate should be in all lineups possible this week. The Ravens have struggled throughout the year at limiting the position, and this has been especially evident in the last five weeks. This is the seventh-best matchup for catches, No. 8 for yardage and No. 3 for touchdown frequency.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, TB @BAL 0022 ***
No writeup available

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 4-20
RB Doug Martin 80,1 3-40
WR Brandon LaFell
WR Jordy Nelson 3-30
TE Jared Cook 4-50
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders come off a dominating win over the sinking Chiefs for their first back-to-back wins of the year. The defense has improved at least marginally since the start of the season and now the offense is slowly beginning to find a rhythm at least when facing weaker defenses which happens again this week. With the Bucs showing up now and the Saints coming in two weeks later, the Raiders offense will at least look much improved. Throw in remaining home games versus the Browns and Chiefs and owning a few Raiders can help a fantasy team reach their championship.

Carson Palmer throws a score in nearly every game but rarely more than one. His yardage tends to fluctuate but half of his efforts have been around 300 yards or more. With nine touchdowns on the season against five interceptions, Palmer isn't winning you any league championship but if used judiciously he has the occasional spot start in him. This week could be one of those weeks.

Darren McFadden comes off his best game of the year with 114 rushing yards that required 29 carries in Kansas City and he added his typical four receptions for 23 yards. Oddly enough, his only two touchdowns went against the Steelers and Falcons - clearly his toughest matchups so far. Mike Goodson is hampered by a turf toe he just picked up which should ensure that McFadden continues to see a heavy load when possible.

Brandon Myers is a wonderfully consistent tight end with 40 to 60 yards each week and never a touchdown. He's reliable but only for moderate stats each week.

Denarius Moore has finally emerged as the clear #1 wideout with a score in each of the last three weeks and usually in excess of 70 yards. He's good for eight or more targets in every game and has become the most reliable receiver for Palmer. Darrius Heyward-Bey scored last week as well but on his only catch. None of the other receivers matter and only Rod Streater has ever scored besides the two starters.

The Buccaneers bring in a soft secondary and give up a rushing touchdown to every road opponent. This will be a decent game for McFadden but were it last year, the expectations would be for a monster effort. Getting good from McFadden is success enough this season.

The Buccaneers also vary greatly in what they allow passers though it is almost always high yardage. Facing Drew Brees and Eli Manning ruined their ranking as they generally allow yards and few scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 17 16 24 15 4 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 25 15 30 12 13 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @CIN 0000025020 ***
Carr hasn't thrown an INT in eight straight games and has five TDs in his last two. The Bengals have been the easiest team to exploit in 2018, but don't tell that to Philip Rivers owners. Legit quarterbacks have trounced this defense. In the last month, though, Cincy has escaped total evisceration by facing Lamar Jackson and Case Keenum. Rivers, as mentioned, had an uncharacteristically weak game. Carr should be solid but is obviously a risky proposition as a QB2 in dual-passer formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, OAK @CIN 7012200000 ***
Cincinnati has been the worst defense of the position in 2018, and it has come in all forms and fashions. Only one team has allowed more rushing yards, and the position has scored 14 times in 13 games on the ground, adding six more in the air. Martin is a sound bet to score for the fourth consecutive week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @CIN 2004400000 ***
Pass-catching RBs have found a bunch of success vs. the Bengals in 2018. This is the friendliest positional matchup using the whole season's data, and all of that holds true for the last five weeks. Richard hasn't scored in 2018 but is a dark horse for a strong fantasy day in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK @CIN 005800000 ***
It has been six games since Roberts has visited the end zone, and that historically has been the only way he produces fantasy-worthy stats. The Raiders have thrown to him 13 times in the last two games, which is encouraging, but he his 5-76-0 line last week is his strongest day without a TD in the last three years. Stay away, despite the reasonably solid matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK @CIN 002201000 ***
He has at least four targets in each of his games over the past month, but the rookie has only one touchdown and hasn't posted a yardage figure over 50 this year. The matchup is great, but he has no value outside of DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, OAK @CIN 002300000 ***
Nelson has come around a little in the last two games, landing 16 of his 18 targets for 145 yards. He hasn't scored since Week 5 and has an outside shot at getting into the end zone vs. Cincy's modest defense of the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @CIN 003501000 ***
Cincinnati has surrendered only 16 receptions in the last five games, yet two of them went into the end zone. This is mostly a strong matchup over the course of 2018, and Cook should remain in conventional lineups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Daniel Carlson, OAK @CIN 1133 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 9
2012
KC at SD (THU) CAR at WAS *DET at JAC TB at OAK
*ARI at GB CHI at TEN *MIA at IND *PHI at NO (MON)
BAL at CLE *DAL at ATL MIN at SEA Bye:
*UPDATED *BUF at HOU DEN at CIN *PIT at NYG NE , NYJ, SF, STL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t