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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: ATL 30, NO 24 (Line: ATL by 3)

Players to Watch: Julio Jones, Roddy White

The 9-0 Falcons head towards their second divisional game of the season. The 3-5 Saints are on a one game winning streak and sport the worst defense against quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. It is truly the FANTASY TRIFECT and all too rare. We may never again see this in our lifetimes. Thank you Bountygate. Or whatever. I have to stop before I start crying again.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO -----
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 10 300,2
QB Matt Schaub 210,1
WR Julio Jones 7-110,1
PK Matt Bryant 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The lone undefeated team may end up having to drop a trap game before too long because the schedule has only one winning record left to play and the Giants are the visitors in week 15. The Falcons are not overpowering anyone really, they are just a bit more balanced, make fewer mistakes and end up just good enough to always get the job done. Short of something unforeseen and catastrophic, the NFC will be going through Atlanta before the Superbowl.

Matt Ryan finally was held scoreless last week by the Cowboys but he still put up 342 passing yards with no turnovers. Ryan already passed for 17 touchdowns against only five interceptions and six of his games featured multiple touchdowns. He's thrown for over 300 yards in half his games so facing the #32 defense against quarterbacks is bound to be a very, very good thing.

Michael Turner comes off a solid effort against the Cowboys with 102 yards on 20 carries but that was with a 43-yard carry mixed in and he was no where near as productive on most carries as the totals suggest. That was his first good game since week five and mostly came on popping one long run that saw him caught before he could score.

Jacquizz Rodgers remains just change of pace and third downs with a few catches thrown in. Even against the Redskins and their weak secondary, Rodgers only had 12 total yards so facing the Saints doesn't necessarily mean decent numbers for Rodgers.

Tony Gonzalez was red hot when he started the season with four scores in the first five weeks but he's been held under 45 yards in each of the last three games and not scored. He is getting only five passes per game instead of the 10 or so he was thrown in earlier games.

This week will be all about Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones scored in every road game so far and always turns in solid yardage. He was much less effective at home but then gained a season high 129 yards just last week when the Cowboys came to town. Jones should be a lock for a monster game here. Roddy White finally did not score at home last Sunday but still posted 118 yards on seven catches himself.

Like every week - anyone facing the Saints is a must start. This one should be lots of fun. The Falcons need to win divisional games anyway and the Saints have won the last three meetings and six of the last seven. Time for some payback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 4 14 7 6 2 11
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 32 32 9 24 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL @SEA 0000025021 ***
Ryan shredded Seattle in two games last year, throwing for north of 335 yards and three TDs in both, with only one total interception. Now without Richard Sherman, the Seahawks are bound to worsen from their No. 15 spot against QBs. The position has averaged 264 yards and 1.5 TD strikes since Week 5.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL @SEA 6002200000 ***
Seattle's defense has permitted a rushing TD every 21.3 carries, which is the fourth-weakest clip. Other than this glaring soft spot, Coleman's matchup is dire. The Seahawks have given up the lowest offensive yards and third-fewest rushing yards per contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terron Ward, ATL @SEA 200000000 ***
Ward should see limited work with Devonta Freeman out of action. The Seattle defense is far too stifling for gamers to burn a roster spot on Ward.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL @SEA 004501000 ***
Sanu has emerged of late and is a viable fantasy play against the Richard Sherman-less Seattle defense. The Seahawks have granted the 12th-most catches on the sixth-highest yardage figure per week to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL @SEA 0061000000 ***
Catches and yardage should be there. The Seahawks have yielded the 12th-most catches and sixth-most yards on a weekly rate, but only three of the last 45 passes have scored (21st). Julio went for 7-139-1 and 6-67-1 in two games vs. this team least year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taylor Gabriel, ATL @SEA 003301000 *
Seattle has been more vulnerable of late to wideouts, and it should only get worse after losing Richard Sherman. The Falcons face fantasy's 10th-best matchup. Receivers have scored the sixth-highest yards-per-game average against the Seahawks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @SEA 003400000 ***
The Seahawks offer a solidly neutral matchup for Hooper. Given the loss of Richard Sherman, it's logical to believe the Falcons may attack more on the outside than before.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL @SEA 1122 ***
Bryant averaged 8.0 fantasy points in his two games last year vs. the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed only three field goals on just four attempts. Nine of the 10 extra point tries have been accurate in the past four games.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 300,3
RB Mark Ingram 30 2-10

Pregame Notes: The Saints finally had a bona fide, real win by a comfortable margin and the opponent did not score their season high for once. Then again, the 99-yard interception return kept this from being 21-20. The Saints at home against a weak team still can get it done. The defense is not going to hold much of anyone at bay but at least Brees and company can outscore a bad team by now. That does not apply to the 8-0 Falcons.

Drew Brees was a little light in yardage these last two weeks but he has scored at least twice in every game this season and currently owns 22 passing touchdowns. He is a must start who will be playing at home against the team that let him throw for 307 yards and four touchdowns the last time they visited New Orleans. This is a big game for the Saints and one that they'll be up for knowing the Falcons have sort of replaced them this year.

Darren Sproles remains out but his departure did nothing to reduce the committee in the backfield. They just moved Chris Ivory up and gave him ten carries to gain 48 yards and one score. Mark Ingram gained 44 yards on seven runs and had a season best two catches for 23 yards. Pierre Thomas still had his normal six runs for 44 yards and two catches for 26 yards. The Saints refuse to let any individual back have much fantasy value. All you can expect is marginal yardage and maybe a score every now and then. They love their mix-n-match backfield.

Jimmy Graham is completely over his sprained ankle with a score and 60+ yards in each of the last two games. He is the only Saints player that always gets double digit targets every week.

The wideouts are more limited this year. Marques Colston is more used than in the past with six touchdowns on the season and two games over 100 yards. Lance Moore hasn't scored since week three but still usually posts 60+ yards. The wideouts are really limited to just the two now instead of the three or four in years past.

This week the Falcons should grab a lead and force the Saints to throw. The worst thing that can happen is the score remains close and the Saints use their trio of running backs to keep the game score lower. Nah - this is the worst defense. That just won't happen.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 7 5 8 29 21
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 11 22 3 15 2 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO WAS 0000021020 ***
Washington was set ablaze last week by far less prolific passer in Case Keenum. Brees has a chance at a monster game. The Redskins have permitted 258.2 passing yards (10th) and a TD every 9.0 completions (3rd). This defense has yielded the fourth-most fantasy points per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram, NO WAS 8013301000 ***
Ingram was a monster last week and could come close again against the 'Skins. Washington has surrendered one rushing TD a game, plus an aerial score on the last 18 catches. Yardage (21st) and receptions (30th), this is a tougher matchup, but that kind of scoring volume is hard to ignore for a guy coming off of a trifecta performance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alvin Kamara, NO WAS 7015300000 ***
Washington has permitted six offensive TDs (5 rushing) in the last five games, allowing an average of 123.8 offensive yards (21st). This isn't an ideal matchup for receiving backs, but Kamara is explosive enough to score from anywhere on the field.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn, NO WAS 003501000 ***
Ginn was held in check last week, but much of it was because the offense didn't need him the way the running backs were moving the sticks. Washington has given up seven TDs in the last five games, which traverses 10.6 receptions a week. That TD once every 7.6 grabs rates as the third-best clip to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO WAS 003400000 ***
The Redskins have given up big plays but tend to limit the receivers in receptions. This is actually just the 20th-best matchup for catches allowed (10.6/game) but ranks 12th in yardage and third in TD frequency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Coleman, NO WAS 002200000 ***
Coleman has lived and died by visiting the end zone, or not, in 2017. Consider him among the deepest of fliers because of the matchup. Washington is a top-seven opponent in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, NO WAS 002200000 ***
Fleener has been too quiet for too long to consider in a lineup. Perhaps he defies the odds, and if he were to do it, this matchup would make some sense for it to be the one. Washington is the sixth-best rating for tight ends in Week 11.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO WAS 2244 ***
All 15 of the extra points against the 'Skins have gone through, but only eight of 14 field goals made their mark. That's the worst conversion rate for any team that faced 10-plus field goal attempts in the past five weeks.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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