FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: ATL 30, NO 24 (Line: ATL by 3)

Players to Watch: Julio Jones, Roddy White

The 9-0 Falcons head towards their second divisional game of the season. The 3-5 Saints are on a one game winning streak and sport the worst defense against quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. It is truly the FANTASY TRIFECT and all too rare. We may never again see this in our lifetimes. Thank you Bountygate. Or whatever. I have to stop before I start crying again.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO -----
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 10 300,2
QB Matt Schaub 210,1
WR Julio Jones 7-110,1
PK Matt Bryant 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The lone undefeated team may end up having to drop a trap game before too long because the schedule has only one winning record left to play and the Giants are the visitors in week 15. The Falcons are not overpowering anyone really, they are just a bit more balanced, make fewer mistakes and end up just good enough to always get the job done. Short of something unforeseen and catastrophic, the NFC will be going through Atlanta before the Superbowl.

Matt Ryan finally was held scoreless last week by the Cowboys but he still put up 342 passing yards with no turnovers. Ryan already passed for 17 touchdowns against only five interceptions and six of his games featured multiple touchdowns. He's thrown for over 300 yards in half his games so facing the #32 defense against quarterbacks is bound to be a very, very good thing.

Michael Turner comes off a solid effort against the Cowboys with 102 yards on 20 carries but that was with a 43-yard carry mixed in and he was no where near as productive on most carries as the totals suggest. That was his first good game since week five and mostly came on popping one long run that saw him caught before he could score.

Jacquizz Rodgers remains just change of pace and third downs with a few catches thrown in. Even against the Redskins and their weak secondary, Rodgers only had 12 total yards so facing the Saints doesn't necessarily mean decent numbers for Rodgers.

Tony Gonzalez was red hot when he started the season with four scores in the first five weeks but he's been held under 45 yards in each of the last three games and not scored. He is getting only five passes per game instead of the 10 or so he was thrown in earlier games.

This week will be all about Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones scored in every road game so far and always turns in solid yardage. He was much less effective at home but then gained a season high 129 yards just last week when the Cowboys came to town. Jones should be a lock for a monster game here. Roddy White finally did not score at home last Sunday but still posted 118 yards on seven catches himself.

Like every week - anyone facing the Saints is a must start. This one should be lots of fun. The Falcons need to win divisional games anyway and the Saints have won the last three meetings and six of the last seven. Time for some payback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 4 14 7 6 2 11
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 32 32 9 24 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL @GB 0000031021 ***
In the last seven games, five quarterbacks not named Brock Osweiler and Josh Rosen went for at least 18 fantasy points, with four of the efforts netting north of 21 points. Ryan should be closer to that area than the laughable outing we saw in Week 13 against a much stingier Baltimore defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL @GB 3003201000 ***
Atlanta has effectively given up on running the football in the last three weeks. Green Bay has been easier to exploit on the ground in the last five weeks, permitting a touchdown per game. The projected touchdown can be considered interchangeable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ito Smith, ATL @GB 2002100000 ***
Smith hasn't scored since Week 9, and as we've seen this year, he hasn't offered anything of note without the touchdown. Green Bay has given up five in the last five weeks on the ground, plus one through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL @GB 0071201000 ***
Jones went for 5-108-0 in last year's meeting in Atlanta. Green Bay has given up 16 TDs in 2018 to the position, and this is a mostly positive matchup for Jones due to his big-play nature. Shake off last week, if you survived, and look forward to a strong day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL @GB 006600000 ***
Last week, the entire Atlanta offense was a mess. The prior game, Ridley went for 8-93-1 at the Saints -- a matchup far closer in nature to this week's. It has been hit-or-miss for the rookie since his early-season tear, but gamers have a favorable matchup to make him at least a flex consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, ATL @GB 004500000 ***
No touchdowns in six straight games, Sanu's low-volume role barely registers on the PPR radar. He has eight targets in the last two games after 14 in the previous two. Being so dependent on targets makes him an unworthy fantasy start in most situations, despite a quality matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @GB 004500000 ***
While his involvement has cooled a little lately (10 targets in last two games), Hooper has scored twice in the last four games to help offset the relative dip in targets from just a few weeks earlier in the year. Green Bay has destroyed tight ends in 2018, providing one touchdown over 44 receptions.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL @GB 2222 ***
No writeup available

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 300,3
RB Mark Ingram II 30 2-10
WR Dez Bryant 6-60
WR Brandon Marshall 5-70

Pregame Notes: The Saints finally had a bona fide, real win by a comfortable margin and the opponent did not score their season high for once. Then again, the 99-yard interception return kept this from being 21-20. The Saints at home against a weak team still can get it done. The defense is not going to hold much of anyone at bay but at least Brees and company can outscore a bad team by now. That does not apply to the 8-0 Falcons.

Drew Brees was a little light in yardage these last two weeks but he has scored at least twice in every game this season and currently owns 22 passing touchdowns. He is a must start who will be playing at home against the team that let him throw for 307 yards and four touchdowns the last time they visited New Orleans. This is a big game for the Saints and one that they'll be up for knowing the Falcons have sort of replaced them this year.

Darren Sproles remains out but his departure did nothing to reduce the committee in the backfield. They just moved Chris Ivory up and gave him ten carries to gain 48 yards and one score. Mark Ingram gained 44 yards on seven runs and had a season best two catches for 23 yards. Pierre Thomas still had his normal six runs for 44 yards and two catches for 26 yards. The Saints refuse to let any individual back have much fantasy value. All you can expect is marginal yardage and maybe a score every now and then. They love their mix-n-match backfield.

Jimmy Graham is completely over his sprained ankle with a score and 60+ yards in each of the last two games. He is the only Saints player that always gets double digit targets every week.

The wideouts are more limited this year. Marques Colston is more used than in the past with six touchdowns on the season and two games over 100 yards. Lance Moore hasn't scored since week three but still usually posts 60+ yards. The wideouts are really limited to just the two now instead of the three or four in years past.

This week the Falcons should grab a lead and force the Saints to throw. The worst thing that can happen is the score remains close and the Saints use their trio of running backs to keep the game score lower. Nah - this is the worst defense. That just won't happen.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 7 5 8 29 21
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 11 22 3 15 2 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO @TB 0000028020 ***
Tampa Bay is the fifth-best matchup using season-long data. This group has given up 28 touchdowns in 12 games, and no team has allowed more. The Week 1 meeting permitted Brees to throw 439 yards worth and three TDs without a pick. He threw only one score in two games last year vs. the Bucs. It generally comes down to how Sean Payton opts to attack, and through the air is the best in this matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alvin Kamara, NO @TB 6016601000 ***
Tampa Bay has been a trainwreck against running backs all year, and it has continued into recent action with seven TDs allowed in the last five games (fifth-highest frequency). Kamara had the backfield to himself in Week 1 and posted 41.1 PPR points on a three-TD day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram II, NO @TB 6012200000 ***
Ingram missed the earlier contest. He hasn't scored in two weeks and has just three total TDs since returning in Week 5. The 2017 meetings with Tampa also kept him out of the end zone. The Bucs have given up 13 TDs in 12 games this year, allowing one every 20.2 carries in the last five weeks (sixth-highest frequency).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO @TB 005701000 ***
Thomas hasn't scored in the past two games and has just 78 total yards on nine grabs. The Week 1 meeting resulted in a monstrous day of 16-180-1 for a 40-point day in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tre'quan Smith, NO @TB 002300000 ***
Smith was blanked last week against Dallas and has a chance to get on track vs. the leaky Tampa secondary. Be cautiously optimistic if you can afford to go bit or go home in the flex spot. The Bucs have given up five TDs in the last five games to WRs, and it's the third-best matchup for big-play exploitation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dan Arnold, NO @TB 002300000 ***
He landed two for 20 last week after going for 45 and a score the prior game. Consider him as a true flier in DFS given the matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO @TB 1144 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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