FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: ATL 30, NO 24 (Line: ATL by 3)

Players to Watch: Julio Jones, Roddy White

The 9-0 Falcons head towards their second divisional game of the season. The 3-5 Saints are on a one game winning streak and sport the worst defense against quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. It is truly the FANTASY TRIFECT and all too rare. We may never again see this in our lifetimes. Thank you Bountygate. Or whatever. I have to stop before I start crying again.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO -----
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL @ NO Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 10 300,2
QB Matt Schaub 210,1
WR Julio Jones 7-110,1
PK Matt Bryant 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The lone undefeated team may end up having to drop a trap game before too long because the schedule has only one winning record left to play and the Giants are the visitors in week 15. The Falcons are not overpowering anyone really, they are just a bit more balanced, make fewer mistakes and end up just good enough to always get the job done. Short of something unforeseen and catastrophic, the NFC will be going through Atlanta before the Superbowl.

Matt Ryan finally was held scoreless last week by the Cowboys but he still put up 342 passing yards with no turnovers. Ryan already passed for 17 touchdowns against only five interceptions and six of his games featured multiple touchdowns. He's thrown for over 300 yards in half his games so facing the #32 defense against quarterbacks is bound to be a very, very good thing.

Michael Turner comes off a solid effort against the Cowboys with 102 yards on 20 carries but that was with a 43-yard carry mixed in and he was no where near as productive on most carries as the totals suggest. That was his first good game since week five and mostly came on popping one long run that saw him caught before he could score.

Jacquizz Rodgers remains just change of pace and third downs with a few catches thrown in. Even against the Redskins and their weak secondary, Rodgers only had 12 total yards so facing the Saints doesn't necessarily mean decent numbers for Rodgers.

Tony Gonzalez was red hot when he started the season with four scores in the first five weeks but he's been held under 45 yards in each of the last three games and not scored. He is getting only five passes per game instead of the 10 or so he was thrown in earlier games.

This week will be all about Julio Jones and Roddy White. Jones scored in every road game so far and always turns in solid yardage. He was much less effective at home but then gained a season high 129 yards just last week when the Cowboys came to town. Jones should be a lock for a monster game here. Roddy White finally did not score at home last Sunday but still posted 118 yards on seven catches himself.

Like every week - anyone facing the Saints is a must start. This one should be lots of fun. The Falcons need to win divisional games anyway and the Saints have won the last three meetings and six of the last seven. Time for some payback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 4 14 7 6 2 11
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 32 32 9 24 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL @TB 0000030030 ***
Ryan dropped the hammer on this defense in Week 6, going for 354 yards and three TD passes without an interception. He has been good for at least 23.9 points in each of his last three games but has failed to return to that 30-point barrier in all but one game since the last time he faced Tampa Bay. Nevertheless, he's a strong play in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tevin Coleman, ATL @TB 5002200000 **
Coleman has one game in the last month with more than 5.1 points in PPR. Tampa Bay afforded him 41 total yards and a receiving TD in Week 6. Coleman isn't a safe play by any stretch of the imagination.

Update: After sitting the first two days of practice this week, Coleman was limited Friday but was still removed from the report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Brian Hill, ATL @TB 500000000 *
Hill ripped off 115 yards in Week 16 and ran only eight times. He was targeted once without a reception. The Falcons are not a successful rushing offense, at least in any sense of consistency, and Tampa is so bad vs. both RBs and WRs, it comes down to how Atlanta chooses to attack. Look for safer plays, but he could be used in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL @TB 0081101000 ***
Jones has mustered double figures in PPR scoring in all but one game this year, and he has scored four times in the past three games. Tampa Bay afforded him 143 yards on 10 grabs in the first meeting, and the veteran should be healthier after being a game-time call last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL @TB 004701000 ***
The rookie scored his first touchdown in five weeks against the Panthers in Week 16 and has nine on the year. The volume hasn't been there since Week 12, so he isn't much of a factor without scoring. The Buccaneers have been exceptionally generous to the position in 2018, yielding 20 TDs to receivers -- only San Fran and Oakland have been worse. Translation: There is upside for a score, but expecting it vs. hoping for it is the difference. Ridley is a flex gamble in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @TB 005601000 ***
The Week 6 meeting went like this: 10 targets, nine catches, 71 yards, one TD. Not too shabby. In fact, it was his best day of the year in either primary scoring format. The Buccaneers were abused by TEs all season, and gamers should feel confident playing Hooper even though he has been extremely quiet of late.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL @TB 2233 ***
No writeup available

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL -----
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK -----
3 KC 24-27 12 SF -----
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL -----
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG -----
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 300,3
RB Mark Ingram II 30 2-10
WR Dez Bryant 6-60

Pregame Notes: The Saints finally had a bona fide, real win by a comfortable margin and the opponent did not score their season high for once. Then again, the 99-yard interception return kept this from being 21-20. The Saints at home against a weak team still can get it done. The defense is not going to hold much of anyone at bay but at least Brees and company can outscore a bad team by now. That does not apply to the 8-0 Falcons.

Drew Brees was a little light in yardage these last two weeks but he has scored at least twice in every game this season and currently owns 22 passing touchdowns. He is a must start who will be playing at home against the team that let him throw for 307 yards and four touchdowns the last time they visited New Orleans. This is a big game for the Saints and one that they'll be up for knowing the Falcons have sort of replaced them this year.

Darren Sproles remains out but his departure did nothing to reduce the committee in the backfield. They just moved Chris Ivory up and gave him ten carries to gain 48 yards and one score. Mark Ingram gained 44 yards on seven runs and had a season best two catches for 23 yards. Pierre Thomas still had his normal six runs for 44 yards and two catches for 26 yards. The Saints refuse to let any individual back have much fantasy value. All you can expect is marginal yardage and maybe a score every now and then. They love their mix-n-match backfield.

Jimmy Graham is completely over his sprained ankle with a score and 60+ yards in each of the last two games. He is the only Saints player that always gets double digit targets every week.

The wideouts are more limited this year. Marques Colston is more used than in the past with six touchdowns on the season and two games over 100 yards. Lance Moore hasn't scored since week three but still usually posts 60+ yards. The wideouts are really limited to just the two now instead of the three or four in years past.

This week the Falcons should grab a lead and force the Saints to throw. The worst thing that can happen is the score remains close and the Saints use their trio of running backs to keep the game score lower. Nah - this is the worst defense. That just won't happen.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 1 7 5 8 29 21
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 11 22 3 15 2 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Teddy Bridgewater, NO CAR 0000012010 *
Look for Bridgewater to see most of the work, if not all, since Drew Brees is not going to be needed in this one. The Saints can't travel either direction in the seeding. Sean Payton probably wants to get a good look at what he has in Bridgewater, as well. At any rate, the matchup is favorable, so consider him a QB2 in dual-start formats and a "what the heck" kind of play in DFS. Don't put too much at stake, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO CAR 0000010000 *
Brees probably starts but plays for virtually no time at all. Stay away in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dwayne Washington, NO CAR 7013200000 *
Washington could see a large role with the Saints expected to sit the studs. Gamers would need to be in a dire situation or be brave enough to risk a huge letdown in DFS, but he should be extremely cheap and has a great matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram II, NO CAR 300000000 *
New Orleans is expected to sit all of its primary weapons, so Ingram shouldn't be in any lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn Jr., NO CAR 003501000 *
Ginn was activated last week after last playing in Week 4, and he was pretty good (12.4 PPR points). The Saints have nothing at stake, so look for Ginn to see more work as they try to get him back into game shape. He scored last year in two of the three games vs. Carolina and could be a worthwhile flier in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keith Kirkwood, NO CAR 005500000 *
Kirkwood should see an expanded role as New Orleans is likely to sit most of the key players. He landed only two passes for 40 yards in the Week 15 meeting but faces a defense that has fallen on hard times and into the placement of being the fourth-softest defense against WRs over the course of the year. He's too volatile of a play, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tre'quan Smith, NO CAR 002300000 *
The rookie has run into the proverbial wall after his breakout Week 11 game. Smith has only three catches for 26 yards in the four games afterward, and even with an expanded role in Week 17, the rookie is far too risky to trust with anything important on the line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO CAR 001100000 *
Thomas probably will see only a series or two, if he plays at all, in a meaningless game for the No. 1 seed. Look for other options, and if your league plays its championship in Week 17, utilize this as an example of why the commish needs to change it up for next year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, NO CAR 002200000 *
With four single-catch games in the last five weeks, and no TDs in that time, Watson is unplayable in all formats. The Panthers held him to 28 yards on his lone grab two weeks ago.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO CAR 2222 *
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

a d v e r t i s e m e n t