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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: BUF 14, NE 41 (Line: NE by 11)

Players Updated: Aaron Hernandez, Stevie Johnson

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Aaron Hernandez

The Bills are on a two game losing streak and are 2-3 in road games. The Patriots are on a two game winning streak and are 2-1 at home. What matters most is that the Patriots won 52-38 in Buffalo back in week four. Back when the Bills were better than they are now and the Pats were worse than they are now. Plus this plays in New England. The nice part is that the Patriots care enough to really put the wood to divisional rivals and roll up big scores when they can. The Bills won only once in the last ten meetings.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 60,1 2-20
RB LeSean McCoy 70,1 6-40
WR Percy Harvin 1-20
WR Brandon Tate 2-30
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills stumble along with an offense that once again started out strongly and then has faded badly. The offense actually reached their zenith in week four when they hosted the Patriots and Fitzgerald threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns while being routed. In the four successive games, only once was he able to throw for any touchdowns. His last three road games have produced zero touchdowns and never more than 239 passing yards. Kind of feast or famine and really it's all feast to start the year and then fantasy starvation by mid-season. Again. There is almost no chance that the Bills remain with Fitzpatrick next year.

The Bills want to involve C.J. Spiller more which is a standard thing for coaches to say after getting beaten badly and they did not use their best player much. Spiller only ran six times in Houston but gained 39 yards and he did catch five passes for 63 yards. Back against the Pats, Spiller only posted 33 yards on eight runs and had two catches for five yards. So far Spiller is not that hard to call - he plays far better and usually scores if they are playing a bad team.

Fred Jackson only gained 29 yards on 13 runs in the previous meeting with the Pats and he's only managed one rushing touchdown all year along with marginal yardage in almost every game. Both he and Spiller are being used as receivers a lot in the recent weeks which helps prop up their fantasy value.

Scott Chandler had his best game of the year versus the Pats when he caught four passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns. He has since never scored and averages around 30 yards per game.

Stevie Johnson suffered a bad contusion on his leg last week and his status for this game is not certain though he'll likely play. Johnson only produced 23 yards on two catches in the last meeting with the Pats and after opening the year with three big games has since only scored once and all too often ends up with less than 40 yards in most games. Donald Jones varies greatly and led the team with 90 yards and a score on two catches in week four.

This time the game is in New England who plays the run tough every week and has been improved on defense in recent weeks. If the three home games so far, the Pats held two opponents to just one passing score. This is not likely to be as close as last time and that was a blowout win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 17 8 25 24 31 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 29 10 25 31 6 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF PIT 50000019001 ***
Pittsburgh has closed the door on fantasy quarterbacks lately. Taylor doesn't belong in fantasy lineups for owners looking to advance or make the postseason. This is the fifth hardest matchup in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF PIT 12023200000 ***
In the last five games, running backs have scored twice on the ground and another two times through the air versus the Steelers. That is about where the fun ends. This is the third harshest matchup for combined yardage allowed per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Gillislee, BUF PIT 3001100000 ***
One of every 29 touches by running backs have led to touchdowns against the Steelers in the last five weeks, which is the 12th best figure in the league. This is a tough matchup overall, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF PIT 004500000 ***
Receivers as a team have averaged a collective 12.4 catches, 157.4 yards and a TD every 15.5 grabs against Pittsburgh since Week 8. Watkins has more down than upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF PIT 004400000 ***
Always a home run threat, Goodwin has mild appeal for gambling owners in non-PPR scoring, but Pittsburgh has allowed four TDs on the last 62 catches (10th worst).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF PIT 003400000 *
Check back Friday for more information on his status for Week 14.

Update: Woods is expected to play, according to Rex Ryan. The wideout is questionable after a limited practice session Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF PIT 004300000 ***
Clay missed last week because of his wife going into labor, but we assume he will be back in the lineup this week. He has little value in fantasy at this point, though, since going on a two-month cold streak.

Update: Clay (knee) is questionable but should play through the injury.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF PIT 2222 ***
Kickers have kicked 6-for-7 field goals and 6-for-7 extra points against the Steelers over the last five weeks. This is a bottom-three matchup for kickers.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF -----
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND -----
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ 29-26 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL 45-7 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 320,3
WR Danny Amendola 6-80,1
TE Martellus Bennett 5-50,1
TE Rob Gronkowski 6-100,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 5 XP

Pregame Notes: The Pats come off their bye week and start out with what should be two pretty easy games. As it works out, their remaining schedule is on the light side with the exception of weeks 14 and 15 when they face the Texans and the 49ers defenses. Those are at home though but will have an impact on player performances right in the thick of fantasy playoffs. Many of the Pats are going to help you get to the playoffs but facing the Texans and 49ers will make it tough to keep you in the playoffs.

Tom Brady scores every week and while his scoring had tended to be lower this year, he's still cranking out the 300 yard games and already posted 340 yards and three touchdowns on the Bills in Buffalo this year. Brady at home should end up with 300-3 as the worst he'll do against a bad defense in his own division.

The last time they played, the Patriots running backs went nuts. Steven Ridley ran for 106 yards and two scores on 22 rushes and Brandon Bolden gained 137 yards and a score on 16 carries. It was a classic Patriots beat down on the Bills that usually happens more in New England than in Buffalo. This is an attractive week for Ridley and Shane Vereen has assumed the Bolden role in recent weeks with Bolden out.

Brandon Lloyd caught three passes for 50 yards and a score in Buffalo but has been very quiet in almost every game since. Lloyd ended up with two scores on the Rams in London but that's probably related to Lloyd playing his most recent ex-employer. Take away the London game and Lloyd has really been a major disappointment. Wes Welker was on a streak with 10+ targets for five straight weeks that all resulted in 95+ yards but he's been limited to just six catches in each of the last two games and not exceeded 66 yards in either. Welker ended with nine receptions for 129 yards in Buffalo back in week four.

Aaron Hernandez did not play in the Buffalo game this year and while he was held out in week eight, he is expected to be back this week. They did not need him in London anyway and his ankle needed the rest. Rob Gronkowski caught five passes for 104 yards and a score in Buffalo this year.

The only fear with the Bills coming to town is that the Patriots won't bother posting a monster score in a game they know they can win. Scoring a season-best 52 points in the last meeting is very promising though.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 5 3 14 1 3 5
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 30 28 23 23 14 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE BAL 0000028020 ***
Remove the one rushing touchdown scored against the Ravens since Week 8 and we have the ninth worst matchup for QBs. This one is in New England, but Brady losing both Gronk and the lesser used Danny Amendola in back-to-back games is bound to catch up at some point.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, NE BAL 401000000 ***
The only redeeming quality about this matchup is Baltimore gives up a lot of catches per game, but that's not Blount's thing. It' is the third hardest matchup to exploit in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dion Lewis, NE BAL 2004300000 ***
Despite the good matchup for receiving backs, Lewis probably shouldn't be used -- at least not by owners looking for some comfort in their lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James White, NE BAL 004300000 ***
The Ravens have given up the fourth most catches to running backs, on average, over the last five weeks. White is a risky play with his touch share in the backfield, but he has some flex appeal in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julian Edelman, NE BAL 008801000 ***
No Gronk. No Amendola. Edelman should be asked to shoulder the receiving load and gets a relatively neutral matchup against the Ravens. Start him with confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE BAL 006801000 ***
TB12 has shown trust in the rookie and hasn't been let down a whole lot. Mitchell has a decent enough matchup, as the visiting Ravens rate in the middle of the league in most notable categories against wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, NE BAL 004500000 ***
Baltimore has surrendered a touchdown per game to receivers over the last five weeks, giving up the 33.1 aggregate PPR points in that time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, NE BAL 003300000 ***
Over the last five weeks, tight ends have averaged 4.8 catches for 49 yards against the Ravens. Two of the 24 grabs went for touchdowns. Bennett is a sketchy play.

Update: Bennett was limited Thursday and Friday. He has until Monday night to get right, and his official status will be known Saturday.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE BAL 2233 ***
No team is more evenly negative against kickers. Baltimore ranks 31st in FGAs, XPAs and fantasy points allowed, while also rating 32nd in combined kicking chances over the last five weeks.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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