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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: BUF 14, NE 41 (Line: NE by 11)

Players Updated: Aaron Hernandez, Stevie Johnson

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Aaron Hernandez

The Bills are on a two game losing streak and are 2-3 in road games. The Patriots are on a two game winning streak and are 2-1 at home. What matters most is that the Patriots won 52-38 in Buffalo back in week four. Back when the Bills were better than they are now and the Pats were worse than they are now. Plus this plays in New England. The nice part is that the Patriots care enough to really put the wood to divisional rivals and roll up big scores when they can. The Bills won only once in the last ten meetings.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE -----
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Fred Jackson 20 5-30
RB C.J. Spiller 30 5-30
WR Mike Williams 5-70,1
TE Scott Chandler 4-40,1
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills stumble along with an offense that once again started out strongly and then has faded badly. The offense actually reached their zenith in week four when they hosted the Patriots and Fitzgerald threw for 350 yards and four touchdowns while being routed. In the four successive games, only once was he able to throw for any touchdowns. His last three road games have produced zero touchdowns and never more than 239 passing yards. Kind of feast or famine and really it's all feast to start the year and then fantasy starvation by mid-season. Again. There is almost no chance that the Bills remain with Fitzpatrick next year.

The Bills want to involve C.J. Spiller more which is a standard thing for coaches to say after getting beaten badly and they did not use their best player much. Spiller only ran six times in Houston but gained 39 yards and he did catch five passes for 63 yards. Back against the Pats, Spiller only posted 33 yards on eight runs and had two catches for five yards. So far Spiller is not that hard to call - he plays far better and usually scores if they are playing a bad team.

Fred Jackson only gained 29 yards on 13 runs in the previous meeting with the Pats and he's only managed one rushing touchdown all year along with marginal yardage in almost every game. Both he and Spiller are being used as receivers a lot in the recent weeks which helps prop up their fantasy value.

Scott Chandler had his best game of the year versus the Pats when he caught four passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns. He has since never scored and averages around 30 yards per game.

Stevie Johnson suffered a bad contusion on his leg last week and his status for this game is not certain though he'll likely play. Johnson only produced 23 yards on two catches in the last meeting with the Pats and after opening the year with three big games has since only scored once and all too often ends up with less than 40 yards in most games. Donald Jones varies greatly and led the team with 90 yards and a score on two catches in week four.

This time the game is in New England who plays the run tough every week and has been improved on defense in recent weeks. If the three home games so far, the Pats held two opponents to just one passing score. This is not likely to be as close as last time and that was a blowout win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 17 8 25 24 31 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NE 29 10 25 31 6 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kyle Orton, BUF @OAK 0000019011 ***
We've seen nothing from Orton of late--one multi-TD game in his last six outings--to suggest he warrants a fantasy play here, even in a reasonably compelling matchup with the Raiders.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Fred Jackson, BUF @OAK 6016500000 ***
While you can run on the Raiders, and the Bills and Jackson most certainly will, where they're particularly susceptible is to pass-catching backs. Fred has 19 catches in the four games since he returned to action; that coupled with his carries makes him a good fantasy start that elevates to great in PPR formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Anthony Dixon, BUF @OAK 2001100000 ***
Dixon's role never really materialized when the Bills were down a couple backs; now that Fred Jackson and potentially CJ Spiller are back, he's persona non grata.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bryce Brown, BUF @OAK 200000000 ***
Complementary backs have done next to nothing since the return of Fred Jackson, and it will take garbage time for Brown to see enough touches to have a fantasy impact. But it's Oakland, so we're sayin' there's a chance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF @OAK 003500000 ***
Woods has had a couple big games against the Jets, but that just puts him in the big pile of "receivers with a pulse". With Kyle Orton's subdued numbers there's likely room for just one fantasy impact player among Buffalo's receivers--and Sammy Watkins has that covered.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF @OAK 004400000 ***
Two of the three 100-yard games the Raiders have given up to opposing wide receivers have gone to speed guys (Malcom Floyd, Stedman Bailey). Watkins is most certainly a speed guy, not to mention the Bills' top target--and the best bet for fantasy success in the Buffalo passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Scott Chandler, BUF @OAK 003201000 **
The Raiders have given up five TE TDs in the past six games so don't dismiss Chandler out of hand. But he has one TD in the past six games, so he's far from a lock.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF @OAK 1133 ****
Carpenter has double-digits in two of the past three and at least seven points in six of the past seven--numbers sure to be equaled or exceeded against an Oakland defense that's allowed at least seven kicker points in 13 of 14 games, and double-digit points six times already.

New England Patriots
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TEN 34-13 10 BUF -----
2 ARI 18-20 11 IND -----
3 @BAL 30-31 12 @NYJ -----
4 @BUF 52-28 13 @MIA -----
5 DEN 31-21 14 HOU -----
6 @SEA 23-24 15 SF -----
7 NYJ 29-26 16 @JAC -----
8 @STL 45-7 17 MIA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NE vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady 320,3
RB Stevan Ridley 100,1
RB Shane Vereen 40,1
WR Danny Amendola 6-80,1
WR Brandon LaFell 2-20
TE Rob Gronkowski 6-100,1
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 5 XP

Pregame Notes: The Pats come off their bye week and start out with what should be two pretty easy games. As it works out, their remaining schedule is on the light side with the exception of weeks 14 and 15 when they face the Texans and the 49ers defenses. Those are at home though but will have an impact on player performances right in the thick of fantasy playoffs. Many of the Pats are going to help you get to the playoffs but facing the Texans and 49ers will make it tough to keep you in the playoffs.

Tom Brady scores every week and while his scoring had tended to be lower this year, he's still cranking out the 300 yard games and already posted 340 yards and three touchdowns on the Bills in Buffalo this year. Brady at home should end up with 300-3 as the worst he'll do against a bad defense in his own division.

The last time they played, the Patriots running backs went nuts. Steven Ridley ran for 106 yards and two scores on 22 rushes and Brandon Bolden gained 137 yards and a score on 16 carries. It was a classic Patriots beat down on the Bills that usually happens more in New England than in Buffalo. This is an attractive week for Ridley and Shane Vereen has assumed the Bolden role in recent weeks with Bolden out.

Brandon Lloyd caught three passes for 50 yards and a score in Buffalo but has been very quiet in almost every game since. Lloyd ended up with two scores on the Rams in London but that's probably related to Lloyd playing his most recent ex-employer. Take away the London game and Lloyd has really been a major disappointment. Wes Welker was on a streak with 10+ targets for five straight weeks that all resulted in 95+ yards but he's been limited to just six catches in each of the last two games and not exceeded 66 yards in either. Welker ended with nine receptions for 129 yards in Buffalo back in week four.

Aaron Hernandez did not play in the Buffalo game this year and while he was held out in week eight, he is expected to be back this week. They did not need him in London anyway and his ankle needed the rest. Rob Gronkowski caught five passes for 104 yards and a score in Buffalo this year.

The only fear with the Bills coming to town is that the Patriots won't bother posting a monster score in a game they know they can win. Scoring a season-best 52 points in the last meeting is very promising though.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NE 5 3 14 1 3 5
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 30 28 23 23 14 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE @NYJ 0000025020 ***
The Jets have fallen off the record-setting pace for allowing touchdown passes they were on, but it's still essentially the same defense Brady took for 261 and 3 back in Week 7. Brady's been plenty hot himself, with multiple scoring strikes in 10 straight; no reason to doubt him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, NE @NYJ 201000000 **
Jets games have tended to bring out the pass-catching backs in New England, so temper expectations for Blount. The Jets aren't a particularly favorable matchup for running backs anyway, and you never know when Brandon Bolden and/or Jonas Gray will get carries to really snarl things up, so keep your expectations in check here.,
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, NE @NYJ 300000000 ***
Gray was back as the Patriots' leading rusher last week, though he was the only Patriots back who carried the ball who failed to score. He simply can't be trusted with a fantasy start here; if/when he scores, you'll know you've been Belichicked.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shane Vereen, NE @NYJ 1003200000 ***
Vereen has a couple of solid pass-catching outings against the Patriots, 2-91-1 back in 2012 and 5-71-2 earlier this season. Vereen missed any games in between, and he's far from a sure thing, but all signs point towards him seeing enough action to be a solid PPR fantasy helper this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julian Edelman, NE @NYJ 008901000 ***
Patriots wideouts did little against the Jets in the earlier meeting, a bit surprising since over the past month the Jets have allowed five 100-yard receivers. Edelman and Brandon LaFell remain the most targeted Patriots wideouts, and with a favorable matchup they can both be counted on for fantasy contributions this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, NE @NYJ 006700000 ***
LaFell has given Tom Brady a bigger target down the field, one whom Brady mixes and matches with diminutive Julian Edelman to full effect. Both are viable fantasy options this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE @NYJ 005801000 ***
Shocking, really, that Gronk isn't among the dozen tight ends who have scored on the Jets this year; expect that to change this week. Gronkowski has topped the 100-yard mark in each of his last two trips to New York, so he should augment that score with copious yardage as well.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE @NYJ 2233 ***
The Jets are the only team to hold Gostkowski under double-digit points at home and since he's a less than 50/50 proposition to hit 10 or more on the road (three of seven games this year), don't let your expectations run wild here.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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