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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: DAL 20, PHI 17 (Line: PHI by 2)

Players Updated: LeSean McCoy

Players to Watch: Michael Vick vs. Tony Romo

The 3-5 Eagles host the 3-5 Cowboys this week in the battle of the bitterly disappointed NFC East rivals. Here at mid-season there are already talks about head coach changes in the offseason and the weekly chance for Andy Reid to publicly support Michael Vick the coach killer. The main difference here is that Philly offensive line that actually makes the Cowboys look like they have no real problems when they do. Bottom line, one team is going to be feeling mighty low after this game. Like "I just don't know what to say anymore" sort of low. And you have to assume this will be a lower scoring, close game no matter what.

The fun part could be if we get the bad Romo and the bad Vick. That could set an NFL record for turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYG 24-17 10 @PHI -----
2 @SEA 7-27 11 CLE -----
3 TB 16-10 12 WAS -----
4 CHI 18-34 13 PHI -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @CIN -----
6 @BAL 29-31 15 PIT -----
7 @CAR 19-14 16 NO -----
8 NYG 24-29 17 @WAS -----
9 @ATL 13-19 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys certainly fought the good fight in Atlanta same as against the Giants. And the Ravens. Not so much the Bears. Dallas entered it knowing that the Falcons game was nearly a must-win situation and yet they fell short against a team that at the very least does not make as many mistakes as the Cowboys do.

This week is actually another must-win that could actually set off an impressive string. The Cowboys will only play two road games in their final seven weeks and those are in Cincinnati and Washington - both very winnable. It would only be appropriate for them to run the table and save everyone's jobs. And then lose in their first playoff game. This week is maybe the toughest remaining game.

Tony Romo continues to throw for high yardage and yet only score once. He's thrown only 11 touchdowns this year and only that high thanks to the three he pitched in the season opener over the Giants. He has limited his mistakes in most recent games and two of the last three contained no turnovers. He's consistent and on a pace for 4700 yards. He just cannot get over the hump of scoring just once each week. The Dallas defense is good, but it cannot hold opponents back for an entire game when the offense just doesn't score much.

Romo strained his back on the final play last week but claims it is only minor and will not be an issue this week.

DeMarco Murray is likely to miss this week as well with his foot injury not yet allowing him to pass all his tests and get back to practice. HC Jason Garrett said he would not play Murray without him practicing so that should be clear at the end of the week. Early reports are not encouraging. Felix Jones actually produced some decent runs and caught five passes for 70 yards in Atlanta. He'll continue to take the start with Lance Dunbar and Philip Tanner backing him up. Tanner only received one carry in the Atlanta game while Dunbar was the surprise getting eight runs for 26 yards. This offense still misses Murray and cannot mount a credible rushing attack without him.

Jason Witten still churns out the catches each week though he's only scored once all year. He's been good for at least seven catches and has become the Cowboys all-time franchise leader in receptions.

Dez Bryant claims his hip injury was not an issue last week despite only catching one pass for 15 yards. He runs hot and cold all the time and in the last four games, two went for more than 95 yards each and produced two scores. The other two never had more than two catches or 15 yards in them. He's very feast or famine and not being 100% healthy makes him an ever bigger risk. Austin Miles remains the consistent wideout and he leads all receivers with four scores on the season.

The Eagles have given up 12 scores to quarterbacks but the yardage has been lower in most games and even Drew Brees only managed 239 yards on Monday night. The Eagles rushing defense has yielded only two rushing touchdowns this year and the Cowboys without Murray are not likely to change that.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 16 22 9 2 20 28
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 13 14 13 13 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Dak Prescott, DAL JAC 20000017002 ***
Prescott is not even worthy of a roster spot, let alone a start against such a strong secondary. Jacksonville has given up three touchdown passes on 99 completions and just 209.2 yards -- both the best figures in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL JAC 7016400000 ***
Riding Zeke is the only way Dallas can stay in games and have a good chance of winning. Jacksonville rates among the toughest defenses for both rushing and receiving success by the position. Only two of 127 total touches have found the end zone against the Jags, and it's the sixth-worst matchup for both scoring main formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cole Beasley, DAL JAC 003400000 ***
Despite leading the Cowboys WRs with 24 targets, Beasley hasn't scored and has authored only one game with double-digit fantasy points in PPR (Week 1). Jacksonville rates as the toughest defense of wideouts, giving up only 11.2 catches per game and two total TDs to the position this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Gallup, DAL JAC 003200000 ***
The rookie's role is too limited in a poorly schemed passing attack to deserve fantasy attention. Furthermore, the matchup is horrendous.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, DAL JAC 001100000 ***
Hurns is the only receiver with a realistic chance of scoring a touchdown, yet expecting it this week is asking a bit much. The Jaguars have permitted WRs to score only two times in the last five games. No team has yielded fewer yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Geoff Swaim, DAL JAC 003400000 ***
Swaim has seen enough work to warrant fleeting attention. The matchup is unappealing, and even with a weak class of tight ends this year, gamers can find a better choice.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brett Maher, DAL JAC 2211 ***
No writeup available

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Mike Wallace 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles drop another game and their season was probably summed up on the one play in New Orleans where Michael Vick threw a pass to Brent Celek and it bounced off his hands into a defender who did not stop running for 99 yards when he scored a touchdown. Vick is getting beaten up each week and the problem only gets worse. The Saints alone had seven sacks last week. The Eagles offensive line is missing their center, left tackle and right guard and right tackle. RT Demetress Bell was constantly victimized last week and now gets to face De Marcus Ware. That is not likely to help.

HC Andy Reid already made his weekly show of support in naming Vick as still the starter. But Vick has only tossed ten touchdowns this year and never more than two in a game if even that. He runs every week maybe half a dozen times but still has just one rushing score from back in week two. Vick threw for decent yardage and two scores on the Cowboys last year in both meetings but the Cowboys have vastly upgraded their cornerbacks who are playing better as the season progresses.

LeSean McCoy ran for 119 yards in New Orleans but he's been far less productive in all other recent games where he remained below 55 rushing yards for the last three games. But McCoy is on a four game scoring streak and three of those came on passes. His role as a receiver salvages his fantasy value nearly every week. Bryce Brown broke off on a couple of runs and ended with 49 yards on just four carries but the Saints are the #32 defense against running backs anyway. Brown had more than ten yards in only one game this year and is no factor to consider.

Brent Celek was on a roll last week when he tipped the pass that was returned for an interception and lost a fumble to kill the drive that would have made it much more of a game in New Orleans. He's still stuck at around 35 yards in almost every game and scored just once this season. Celek enjoyed big games against the Cowboys last year when he posted 94 yards and a score at home and later 52 yards and a touchdown in Dallas. He's a good risk this week with the Cowboys showing up with actual cornerbacks this time.

Jeremy Maclin scored in both meetings with the Cowboys last year but has been very quiet in 2011 and only once gained more than 39 yards since the season opener. He faces Brandon Carr this week which should shut him down. DeSean Jackson scored on a 77 yard catch-and-sprint but only totaled three catches for 100 yards. The wide receivers are less effective this year and did not even have a big showing last week against the worse secondary in the NFL. That bodes poorly for this tilt against a defense that he been very good at shutting down wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 11 23 17 12 23 29
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 4 9 7 7 23 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @NYG 0000032020 ***
Deshaun Watson (30.9) and Cam Newton (22.8) are the only passers to eclipse the 20-point mark this year vs. New York. Last year, Wentz went for only 15 points in his lone 2017 meeting with the G-Men. He has thrown for more than 300 yards and has two TD tosses in each of his last two starts, preventing an interception along the way. The Giants have given up the fifth-fewest yards per game (237) and a TD every 16.3 completions, which is the 11th-easiest matchup to exploit. Despite the stiff opponent, Wentz should be trusted without a more obvious way to big points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI @NYG 5003200000 ***
Declared 100 percent healthy, he will share the backfield chores with Wendell Smallwood. The Eagles are likely to give the latter more of the traditional rushing chores and let Clement replace Darren Sproles while spelling at times on the ground. One in 18.3 offensive handles has found the end zone against the Giants, creating the fourth-softest defense at keeping RBs out of the end zone. You can thank Alvin Kamara's 41.1 points for taking this from an average to great matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI @NYG 3003200000 ***
Look for Smallwood to see the majority of rushing attempts and sprinkle in a few receptions. Corey Clement is the more likely receiving option to replace Darren Sproles. The matchup is wonderful, thanks to a 41.1-point day by Alvin Kamara. New York has been a mid-road place for fantasy points otherwise. Smallwood is a fine play in all scoring formats this Thursday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @NYG 004501000 ***
Jeffery's strong return in Week 4 was muted by an eight-target, two-catch showing in Week 5. The veteran was good for a 4-49-1 line in last year's trip to the Meadowlands. The Giants rank as the second-toughest PPR defense of the position with only three touchdowns against in 2018. Games against low-level passing attacks, like JAX, DAL and CAR, trend it downward, but the Saints didn't fare well, either, after choosing to run all over them. Game flow and personnel deficiencies suggest Philly will throw it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @NYG 005700000 ***
Without finding the end zone, Agholor just doesn't offer a heck of a lot for fantasy purposes. The last three games have failed to produce double-digit fantasy points in any contest. He was good for a 7-59-1 line in last year's trip to visit the Giants. Games against low-level passing attacks, like JAX, DAL and CAR, trend it downward, but the Saints didn't fare well, either, after choosing to run all over them. Game flow and personnel deficiencies suggest Philly will throw it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @NYG 003600000 ***
Matthews is barely on the fantasy radar, and a tough matchup should keep him in reserve. Only three times over 53 catches has a receiver scored on the Giants. The matchup rating is tricky. Games against low-level passing attacks, like JAX, DAL and CAR, trend it downward, but the Saints didn't fare well, either, after choosing to run all over them. Game flow and personnel deficiencies suggest Philly will throw it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @NYG 006901000 ***
Ertz has experienced no shortage of chances with at least 10 targets in every game this year. The standout tight end has caught 10 balls in consecutive games. It won't come easy in Week 6. The Giants have allowed only 15 catches on the year, which is the second fewest on a weekly clip. None of those balls have scored. Ertz was remarkably consistent and productive in both games last seasons, logging lines of 8-55-1 and 6-56-1.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @NYG 3322 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

a d v e r t i s e m e n t