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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: DAL 20, PHI 17 (Line: PHI by 2)

Players Updated: LeSean McCoy

Players to Watch: Michael Vick vs. Tony Romo

The 3-5 Eagles host the 3-5 Cowboys this week in the battle of the bitterly disappointed NFC East rivals. Here at mid-season there are already talks about head coach changes in the offseason and the weekly chance for Andy Reid to publicly support Michael Vick the coach killer. The main difference here is that Philly offensive line that actually makes the Cowboys look like they have no real problems when they do. Bottom line, one team is going to be feeling mighty low after this game. Like "I just don't know what to say anymore" sort of low. And you have to assume this will be a lower scoring, close game no matter what.

The fun part could be if we get the bad Romo and the bad Vick. That could set an NFL record for turnovers.

Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYG 24-17 10 @PHI -----
2 @SEA 7-27 11 CLE -----
3 TB 16-10 12 WAS -----
4 CHI 18-34 13 PHI -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @CIN -----
6 @BAL 29-31 15 PIT -----
7 @CAR 19-14 16 NO -----
8 NYG 24-29 17 @WAS -----
9 @ATL 13-19 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Darren McFadden
WR Dez Bryant 6-60
TE Jason Witten 7-50
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 2 XP
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys certainly fought the good fight in Atlanta same as against the Giants. And the Ravens. Not so much the Bears. Dallas entered it knowing that the Falcons game was nearly a must-win situation and yet they fell short against a team that at the very least does not make as many mistakes as the Cowboys do.

This week is actually another must-win that could actually set off an impressive string. The Cowboys will only play two road games in their final seven weeks and those are in Cincinnati and Washington - both very winnable. It would only be appropriate for them to run the table and save everyone's jobs. And then lose in their first playoff game. This week is maybe the toughest remaining game.

Tony Romo continues to throw for high yardage and yet only score once. He's thrown only 11 touchdowns this year and only that high thanks to the three he pitched in the season opener over the Giants. He has limited his mistakes in most recent games and two of the last three contained no turnovers. He's consistent and on a pace for 4700 yards. He just cannot get over the hump of scoring just once each week. The Dallas defense is good, but it cannot hold opponents back for an entire game when the offense just doesn't score much.

Romo strained his back on the final play last week but claims it is only minor and will not be an issue this week.

DeMarco Murray is likely to miss this week as well with his foot injury not yet allowing him to pass all his tests and get back to practice. HC Jason Garrett said he would not play Murray without him practicing so that should be clear at the end of the week. Early reports are not encouraging. Felix Jones actually produced some decent runs and caught five passes for 70 yards in Atlanta. He'll continue to take the start with Lance Dunbar and Philip Tanner backing him up. Tanner only received one carry in the Atlanta game while Dunbar was the surprise getting eight runs for 26 yards. This offense still misses Murray and cannot mount a credible rushing attack without him.

Jason Witten still churns out the catches each week though he's only scored once all year. He's been good for at least seven catches and has become the Cowboys all-time franchise leader in receptions.

Dez Bryant claims his hip injury was not an issue last week despite only catching one pass for 15 yards. He runs hot and cold all the time and in the last four games, two went for more than 95 yards each and produced two scores. The other two never had more than two catches or 15 yards in them. He's very feast or famine and not being 100% healthy makes him an ever bigger risk. Austin Miles remains the consistent wideout and he leads all receivers with four scores on the season.

The Eagles have given up 12 scores to quarterbacks but the yardage has been lower in most games and even Drew Brees only managed 239 yards on Monday night. The Eagles rushing defense has yielded only two rushing touchdowns this year and the Cowboys without Murray are not likely to change that.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 16 22 9 2 20 28
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 13 14 13 13 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Dak Prescott, DAL LAC 30000021011 ***
Regardless of LT Tyron Smith's status, Prescott is a dicey call for Week 12. It's a short week, and the Chargers have some momentum. Gamers should look elsewhere, if possible, since we are free of bye weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, DAL LAC 10011100000 ***
This is the fifth-best matchup in non-PPR (2nd in PPR). Most of the work has come via the passing game, which isn't exactly Morris' thing. Maybe he can add a few screen passes to inflate an already sound projection. At any rate, LA has given up only two rushing TDs over the past 86 totes by RBs (17th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dez Bryant, DAL LAC 005801000 **
Bryant is seeing the looks and failing to generate meaningful fantasy production. The matchup likely won't redeem this, either, as the Chargers have surrendered a mere touchdown over the past 47 catches. This is the fifth-hardest opponent in PPR and fourth-worst in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrance Williams, DAL LAC 004400000 ***
Williams is doing almost nothing with a reasonable target volume. The Chargers are too tough of a matchup to chance this being the week he makes the most of his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cole Beasley, DAL LAC 004300000 ***
Beasley has been ineffective for fantasy purposes most of this year and half of last season. Avoid him with this difficult matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jason Witten, DAL LAC 002200000 ***
Witten has been erratic and has a mediocre matchup for catches and yardage. However, LA has permitted only one TD over the past 19 grabs by tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Bailey, DAL LAC 3322 ***
Bailey has a good chance of returning this week. If he doesn't go again, Mike Nugent will continue to handle the duties. Los Angeles rates in the bottom half of the league while giving up the ninth-most field goal attempts.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL -----
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Torrey Smith 5-80,1
TE Brent Celek 4-30,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles drop another game and their season was probably summed up on the one play in New Orleans where Michael Vick threw a pass to Brent Celek and it bounced off his hands into a defender who did not stop running for 99 yards when he scored a touchdown. Vick is getting beaten up each week and the problem only gets worse. The Saints alone had seven sacks last week. The Eagles offensive line is missing their center, left tackle and right guard and right tackle. RT Demetress Bell was constantly victimized last week and now gets to face De Marcus Ware. That is not likely to help.

HC Andy Reid already made his weekly show of support in naming Vick as still the starter. But Vick has only tossed ten touchdowns this year and never more than two in a game if even that. He runs every week maybe half a dozen times but still has just one rushing score from back in week two. Vick threw for decent yardage and two scores on the Cowboys last year in both meetings but the Cowboys have vastly upgraded their cornerbacks who are playing better as the season progresses.

LeSean McCoy ran for 119 yards in New Orleans but he's been far less productive in all other recent games where he remained below 55 rushing yards for the last three games. But McCoy is on a four game scoring streak and three of those came on passes. His role as a receiver salvages his fantasy value nearly every week. Bryce Brown broke off on a couple of runs and ended with 49 yards on just four carries but the Saints are the #32 defense against running backs anyway. Brown had more than ten yards in only one game this year and is no factor to consider.

Brent Celek was on a roll last week when he tipped the pass that was returned for an interception and lost a fumble to kill the drive that would have made it much more of a game in New Orleans. He's still stuck at around 35 yards in almost every game and scored just once this season. Celek enjoyed big games against the Cowboys last year when he posted 94 yards and a score at home and later 52 yards and a touchdown in Dallas. He's a good risk this week with the Cowboys showing up with actual cornerbacks this time.

Jeremy Maclin scored in both meetings with the Cowboys last year but has been very quiet in 2011 and only once gained more than 39 yards since the season opener. He faces Brandon Carr this week which should shut him down. DeSean Jackson scored on a 77 yard catch-and-sprint but only totaled three catches for 100 yards. The wide receivers are less effective this year and did not even have a big showing last week against the worse secondary in the NFL. That bodes poorly for this tilt against a defense that he been very good at shutting down wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 11 23 17 12 23 29
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 4 9 7 7 23 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI CHI 10000024020 ***
Chicago has been rather strong against quarterbacks. Matt Stafford was above average last week, accounting for two of the three TDs this group has surrendered in the last four games. Wentz has some upside, but he's more safely a low-end starter than an elite option in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI CHI 901000000 ***
Big plays have kept Ajayi's fantasy value afloat of late. The Bears have been a midrange matchup, which makes him a fringe choice. The position has averaged 88.5 rushing yards on 24.5 attempts, and on in 32.7 carries has found the end zone (10th-highest frequency).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI CHI 4011100000 ***
Clement has proven to be valuable of late. The matchup is favorable, especially for scoring touchdowns, and Chicago has yielded the ninth-most receptions a week. One of 24 catches has scored vs. the Bears since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI CHI 300000000 ***
Flip a coin ... Blount is useless without scoring a touchdown. The matchup is at least favorable for that to be accomplished, but game flow will dictate his success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI CHI 004701000 ***
Chicago has given up the seventh-highest weekly average for receiving yardage, but that is about all. This is the ninth-worst matchup for scoring touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI CHI 004501000 ***
The only way Agholor offers fantasy value is if he scores a touchdown, which is something Chicago has done a good job of limiting. Only two of the last 44 balls have scored. Overall, this is a moderate matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI CHI 002200000 ***
Smith's only return on investment comes by way of a touchdown. Chicago, conversely, hasn't allowed more than two of them in the last four games against wide receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI CHI 005600000 **
Ertz has cooled lately. The matchup isn't ideal, either. Da Bears have no allowed a score in the last four games against tight ends, rating as the second-hardest opponent overall.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI CHI 0000 *
Elliott is in the concussion protocol and is unclear for this week. The Bears have given up 7.8 fantasy points, on average, which is in the middle of the league.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

a d v e r t i s e m e n t