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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: DEN 30, CAR 17 (Line: DEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Willis McGahee, Cam Newton

The 5-3 Broncos are on a three game winning streak but are only 2-2 on the road. The 2-6 Panthers finally broke their five game losing steak playing the Redskins last week but are only 1-3 at home. This could be a trap game since the Broncos defense is bad against the run and that's about all the Panthers know how to do. But the Broncos have never scored less than 21 points and are on a 30+ point streak. Only four teams have fewer total points than the Panthers.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR -----
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD -----
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC -----
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-60
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: Peyton Manning not only has the ship sailing in the right direction, the waters look incredibly calm from here on out. Only the road trip to Baltimore in week 15 looks tricky and even them the Broncos may be favored. Peyton's getting the credit but the entire team has played better and the defense in particular has come through. Of course it all seems to work better when your Hall of Fame quarterback is roasting every opponent.

Missed it by that much...

Manning set a record when he threw four games in a row with 300 yards and three touchdowns. last week in Cincinnati, he fell all the way down to 291 yards and three scores. What a slacker. Manning already has thrown 20 touchdowns and is on a pace to score 40 on the season which would be his second best year ever. He is worth starting. Probably wish you could start him twice.

Willis McGahee has dropped off rather sharply. While he did rush for over 100 yards and scored in three different games, only one of those was on the road - week two in Atlanta. In the three road games since, McGahee never scored and hasn't rushed for more than 66 yards. His role as a receiver has dipped a bit as well when he only caught one pass in Cincy last Sunday. This would be more concerning if the Panthers weren't already weak against the run. But it does draw a reason why Manning has been throwing so many passes in the last six weeks.

Joel Dreessen caught his fourth touchdown of the year but his production is rarely over 30 yards and he was blanked against the Saints. He is a red zone target but never accounts for many catches.

The wideouts continue to be the engine that drives this offense. Eric Decker scored in each of the last five games and twice in the last two. His seven touchdowns lead the Broncos though he remains lighter on yardage with only one effort exceeding 100 yards. Demaryius Thomas scored just four times but topped 100 yards four times. Brandon Stokley adds in a score on occasion but is a definite #3 in this offense.

The Panthers rank great against wideouts but not to worry. When good quarterbacks show up, their best receivers still end up with good games even in Carolina. Most team just run against them which is why the passing is lower but McGahee has been less effective in road games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 6 19 2 4 21 3
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 10 27 2 14 31 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Trevor Siemian, DEN @CIN 10000019000 ***
Siemian has been a quality starter for the Broncos but not fantasy owners. Cincinnati poses a midrange matchup and should find ways to confuse him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Anderson, DEN @CIN 8014300000 ***
Cincinnati has allowed the fourth most rushing yards to RBs in 2016 but haven't surrendered a touchdown on the ground. DeAngelo Williams caught a touchdown pass last week. Anderson must be in all lineups. He's involved in the screen game and is a good bet to break that touchdown drought by his peers facing Cincy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @CIN 004500000 ***
The matchup stinks, but the attention paid to Demaryius Thomas could provide Sanders extra targets. Either way, he's a flex-only receiver facing a top-10 defense of his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN @CIN 004400000 ***
Antonio Brown was a non-factor versus Cincy a week ago. Duly noted. However, Thomas' sheer size and red zone presence offers something AB couldn't match. Trevor Siemian is not Big Ben, so we'll call it a wash. Cincinnati has granted receivers 20-275-2 through the air for an average of 30.1 fantasy points, or the eighth hardest matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Norwood, DEN @CIN 002300000 ***
Norwood belongs on exactly zero fantasy rosters at this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Heuerman, DEN @CIN 003300000 **
No writeup available
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN @CIN 3311 ***
Cincy ranks in the middle of the league against fantasy kickers.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN -----
2 NO 35-27 11 TB -----
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI -----
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA 12-16 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL 14-19 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI 22-23 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS 21-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR vs DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 40 240,1
RB Jonathan Stewart 20 3-20
RB Mike Tolbert 10
TE Greg Olsen 6-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Panthers mercifully won a game to end the losing streak but it's probably just going to start all over again. This is still an offense with only one decent receiver ("Champ, this is Steve. Steve, this is Champ") and a running game that still ranks among the worst in the league. HC Ron Rivera already had his talk this week with the owner about the need to actually win games and what happens when you do not. The team needs to show "progress" in order to qualify for another Rivera year. Probably not going to happen.

Cam Newton is one reason why. The offensive rookie of the year from 2011 has fallen on hard times not unlike the offensive rookie of the year from 2010 Sam Bradford. Newton's passed for only six touchdowns this year against eight interceptions. His rushing touchdowns also stopped after week four other than last week against the Redskins who can stop no one. Newton has not thrown a touchdown in two consecutive games since week two and he just scored once on the Redskins.

That whole change to Jonathan Stewart as the primary back has meant nothing so far. He still has yet to gain more than 51 yards in any game or run in a score. He rushed more than 11 times in only one game. Basically, he ends with 40 to 50 total yards in games and that just sad for a primary back on a team that once sported one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL. DeAngelo Williams was demoted but he still gets half a dozen carries or more and scored his third rushing touchdown on the year last week. This is just a marginal unit that splits up meager production to ensure no one is really worth any fantasy consideration.

Kick returner and sometimes wideout Kealoha Pilares was placed on injured reserve this week with a shoulder injury that requires surgery. Only Steve Smith matters from the wideouts and yet his first touchdown of the year was just last week when he only gained 41 yards on three catches against the Redskins and their horrible secondary. Smith is worth a fantasy start each week but is not above having a bad game every so often and his scoring is now up to "one". The only receiver of any note remains tight end Greg Olsen who also scored only once this year and usually ends up with just 30 or 40 yards in most games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 10 27 27 19 32 7
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 15 16 8 29 11 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR MIN 40100025011 ***
Cam posted 21.2 fantasy points against Denver's stout D in Week 1 and 29.8 last week (SF). The Vikings have given up 23.5 fantasy points per game in two contests, which is the 11th easiest matchup. No Jonathan Stewart could mean more attention on Cam, so think of him more as Clark Kent than Superman this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Fozzy Whittaker, CAR MIN 6003200000 **
Whittaker could benefit from Minnesota's tough ground defense -- hear us out. They gave up two touchdowns through the air to running back DeMarco Murray in the opening week. No J-Stew will give Whittaker ample chances to produce fantasy points in your flex spot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR MIN 200000000 **
CAP is going to be active with Jonathan Stewart on the mend, so he'll have a role. It's probably not that much of one, and a terrible matchup to boot. The Vikings have given up 98 total rushing yards to RBs in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR MIN 005801000 ***
Benjamin could ascend into the upper tier of fantasy receivers for 2016 with a strong performance against a nearly impervious defense. Minnesota has given up only one touchdown to the position, which came from Jordy Nelson in Week 2. Benjamin's size alone makes him a promising fantasy play in this otherwise formidable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ted Ginn, Jr., CAR MIN 002300000 ***
Ginn is always a home run threat and a risky fantasy start. Minnesota has permitted receivers to score only once this year on 28 grabs, ranking in the 10 toughest matchups for the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devin Funchess, CAR MIN 002300000 ***
A TD saved his Week 2 value and gives some hope as the Vikings prepare to stop Kelvin Benjamin. Minnesota has been a strong opposition for receivers through two games, allowing only 31.8 fantasy points per game to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Greg Olsen, CAR MIN 007800000 ***
Not an ideal matchup for the veteran tight end ... keep him in your lineup, and avoid him in DFS. The Vikes have locked down the position to only nine catches for 98 yards and no TDs. Temper your expectations with Olsen and hope a mismatch can be exploited by that attention cast on a pair of towering receivers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR MIN 1133 ***
This one could go either way -- start Gano, because Minnesota could stall several Panthers drives. Don't be surprised if Gano is seldom used, though.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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