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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: DET 24, MIN 17 (Line: DET by 1)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson

Players to Watch: Christian Ponder, Percy Harvin

The 4-4 Lions are on a two game winning streak but are 2-3 in road games. The 5-4 Vikings are on a two game losing streak and are 4-1 at home. This is a replay of week four when the Vikings won because of a punt and a kick return for a touchdown.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 280,2
WR Anquan Boldin 5-70
WR Golden Tate 3-40
TE Brandon Pettigrew 5-60,1
PK Matt Prater 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions are 4-4 and by no means out of the playoff race but it will be a tough row to hoe with their schedule. If they can get past the Vikes, they may not be favored again this year. Five home games left is good but each one goes against a winning record. This week may be as good as it gets for the Lions short of possibly week 15 in Arizona.

Matt Stafford passed for 352 yards and three scores against the Seahawks in week eight but then went back to no scores in Jacksonville mostly because Mikel Leshoure had a career best three touchdowns. Stafford threw for more than one touchdown only in the one game. He's totaled just eight touchdowns on the year though he added three more scores via runs. Last week was the first time he did not score in any manner. Stafford passed for 319 yards and no touchdowns in week four versus the Vikings but added a rushing touchdown in that game.

The Jaguars were crushed by the Lions rushing. Mikel Leshoure scored only once all year and then three times in Jacksonville where he gained 70 yards on 13 runs. Even Joique Bell ran for 73 yards on 13 runs and scored once last week. Against the Vikes last time, Leshoure only rushed for 26 yards on 13 carries and added four receptions for 37 yards. Bell turned in six catches for 72 yards in that game as well. Last week was a major aberration - the Lions rushing attack is not nearly that good.

Brandon Pettigrew comes off his worst game of the year with just one catch for 11 yards but one of his top efforts was when he reeled in seven passes for 67 yards against the Vikings. Pettigrew scored just once all year and that was back in week two. He's been more consistent around 40 yards or so in recent games.

Calvin Johnson continues to be suffering from his left leg injury to the point that the Lions set up his routes to let him make cuts on his "good leg". Johnson ended with seven receptions for 129 yards in Jacksonville and was no worse after the game. Johnson said his knee will be an issue "indefinitely" but he is playing at a high level regardless. Johnson was held to only 54 yards on five catches in the last meeting with the Vikings. This is a different set of wideouts from what was used in week four. Nate Burleson is gone and Titus Young assumes his spot with Ryan Broyles becoming the #3. That worked great against the Seahawks with Young scoring twice in that game.

The Vikings are going to be without a healthy Percy Harvin and that will have a dramatic effect on the passing game of the Vikes that already has been shaky. This is a good time to travel to Minny and so long as special teams holds up this time, the Lions can win this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 7 10 8 5 6 26
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 15 12 17 15 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET @GB 0000028011 ***
Stafford travels to Green Bay, where he has historically failed to produce strong fantasy numbers. He has one game in his last four trips with more than two passing touchdowns and none with more than 300 yards. That said, Detroit lost Ameer Abdullah and likes to throw a ton of passes. The Packers looked mediocre vs. Sam Bradford without cornerback Sam Shields. Play Stafford only if you must.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET @GB 3006400000 ***
More work for Riddick is ahead, although it may not matter too much. He's not a good running back, particularly inside, and Detroit's coaching staff knows it. He'll be used in space and as a receiver out of the backfield. Green Bay has stifled running backs so far this year, good for the second best defense of PPR backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dwayne Washington, DET @GB 300000000 *
No Ameer Abdullah should mean much more of the rookie. The 6-foot-2, 226-pounder brings 4.44 speed to the table. He's leggy and not very elusive, with a penchant for putting the ball on the turf. This matchup (second toughest) isn't a great place to find your first NFL start, and fantasy owners should respond accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET @GB 006900000 ***
Jones has overtaken Golden Tate as Matt Stafford's primary target and is even seeing more playing time. The stats agree, too, for fantasy purposes. Green Bay presents a lousy matchup when their top cornerback, Sam Shields, is on the field. His Week 3 status is uncertain. If Shields sits, Jones safely becomes a WR1 in PPR and a WR2 in standard scoring. Bump those numbers down a tier for each if Shields goes.

Update: Shields has been ruled out for Week 3, making Jones that much better of a play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET @GB 004500000 ***
Let's forget Week 2 happened ... Tate caught only two of nine targets and finished with 13 yards. That's not likely to happen again In his two full seasons with Detroit, he has snagged 69 percent of his targets. Give him the benefit of the doubt. Green Bay isn't going to be a friendly matchup, though, unless you're a PPR owner willing to accept Tate as a flex who may not crack double figures.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, DET @GB 003300000 ***
Detroit loves three-wide sets, as illustrated by Boldin being one of a Lions trio to play at least 85 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 2. That kind of time, coupled with attention on Golden Tate, makes Boldin playable in PPR formats as a flier.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET @GB 006501000 ***
Ten receptions, 143 yards and a pair of touchdowns allowed ... Green Bay stinks at defending Ebron's position through two games. He's a quality start in any format and a good bet for seeing the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET @GB 2211 ***
Kickers have gone 4-for-4 from both field goal range and extra point kicks against Green Bay, which is only 19th in three-point tries allowed.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 220
RB Ronnie Hillman 10 5-30
RB Adrian Peterson 120,1 4-20
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30,1
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings are on a two game losing streak and have the look of a 5-4 team that is about to fall apart. This week could be a win though Percy Harvin will be an issue and that takes away the only dangerous part of the passing game. After the week 11 bye, the schedule is about as murderous as can be. Road games in CHI, GB, STL and HOU face some great defenses. Home games versus CHI and GB are no fun either. It is entirely possible that the Vikings could even win this week and still end 6-9 on the season.

Christian Ponder's production is all over the map. He comes off a 63 yard game in Seattle and that wasn't even his worst (week 7 - 58 yards vs ARI). But he threw for 352 yards and two scores against the Redskins. Most notable this week was that Ponder passed for just 111 yards and no scores in Detroit earlier this year. Potentially losing Percy Harvin has to be disastrous to this offense that really does not rely on anyone else in the passing game.

Harvin suffered hamstring issues that were bothering him last week and then he suffered a severe ankle sprain. He has not ruled himself out this week and may gut it out but his level of play is almost certain to be reduced given he was still on crutches earlier in the week. None of the other wideouts matter here and this unit has only produced a collective five scoring catches all year anyway. Harvin has three of those touchdowns and and six games with over 80 yards. No other receiver has any games with as many as 80 yards. That rather dampens the outlook.

Harvin will be followed closely this week but at worst he is a game time decision and if he plays - how effective will he be? He is all they really have. Kyle Rudolph has marginal yardage but did score five times this year. His previous meeting with the Lions only produced two catches for eight yards though. Scary too is that Rudolph had no catches in two of the last three games.

Peterson is a lock to run well this week and he already gained 102 yards on 21 carries in Detroit. The only question here is how heavy of a load can they get to Peterson and if the already shaky passing scheme can weather a lower level of play from Harvin - if he even plays.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 28 17 23 20 8 16
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 12 5 19 16 21 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Bradford, MIN @CAR 0000020012 ***
Did anyone see that coming? Week 2 was extra kind to the new Vikings quarterback, and now he has to go on the road to face a Panthers defense that has more interceptions than touchdowns allowed. Consider last week's effort more of an aberration than the standard from Bradford, whose offense is now without Adrian Peterson.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Asiata, MIN @CAR 5001100000 ***
Carolina has given up two rushing and one receiving touchdown to running backs in two games, helping lead to the eighth friendliest matchup for the position. Asiata should see a healthy workload in Adrian Peterson's stead, but he may come off the field in clear passing situations in favor of Jerick McKinnon. RB2 at best ... safely more of a flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN @CAR 3001100000 ***
Look for McKinnon to see a larger role with All Day saying goodnight, and Carolina has not done a great job of stopping pass-catching backs (9-81-1). PPR owners can look to McKinnon as a last-ditch flex option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN @CAR 004600000 **
Las week was a wonderful coming-out party for Diggs, but the fun stops there. Carolina has been suffocating against receivers in two games. Don't sit Diggs in non-DFS action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN @CAR 004500000 ***
Not enough meat on the bone here ... while he has four catches in each game this year, Thielen doesn't offer enough bang for your lineup spot buck against this dominant pass defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN @CAR 004401000 ***
The Panthers rank in the middle of the pack at stopping tight ends. Most of the damage was done on a single play (75-yard Vance McDonald TD), so unless Rudolph can find his way into the end zone, the Vikings have an upper hand in this matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN @CAR 2211 ***
Wait to see what the offense looks like first ... it's on the road, without Adrian Peterson.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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