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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: DET 24, MIN 17 (Line: DET by 1)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson

Players to Watch: Christian Ponder, Percy Harvin

The 4-4 Lions are on a two game winning streak but are 2-3 in road games. The 5-4 Vikings are on a two game losing streak and are 4-1 at home. This is a replay of week four when the Vikings won because of a punt and a kick return for a touchdown.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN -----
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 280,2
RB Joique Bell 20 2-10
RB Reggie Bush 60,1 2-20
RB Mikel Leshoure 80,1 4-20
WR Ryan Broyles 4-50
WR Calvin Johnson 6-80,1
TE Brandon Pettigrew 5-60,1
TE Tony Scheffler 2-20
PK David Akers 2 FG 2 XP
PK Jason Hanson 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions are 4-4 and by no means out of the playoff race but it will be a tough row to hoe with their schedule. If they can get past the Vikes, they may not be favored again this year. Five home games left is good but each one goes against a winning record. This week may be as good as it gets for the Lions short of possibly week 15 in Arizona.

Matt Stafford passed for 352 yards and three scores against the Seahawks in week eight but then went back to no scores in Jacksonville mostly because Mikel Leshoure had a career best three touchdowns. Stafford threw for more than one touchdown only in the one game. He's totaled just eight touchdowns on the year though he added three more scores via runs. Last week was the first time he did not score in any manner. Stafford passed for 319 yards and no touchdowns in week four versus the Vikings but added a rushing touchdown in that game.

The Jaguars were crushed by the Lions rushing. Mikel Leshoure scored only once all year and then three times in Jacksonville where he gained 70 yards on 13 runs. Even Joique Bell ran for 73 yards on 13 runs and scored once last week. Against the Vikes last time, Leshoure only rushed for 26 yards on 13 carries and added four receptions for 37 yards. Bell turned in six catches for 72 yards in that game as well. Last week was a major aberration - the Lions rushing attack is not nearly that good.

Brandon Pettigrew comes off his worst game of the year with just one catch for 11 yards but one of his top efforts was when he reeled in seven passes for 67 yards against the Vikings. Pettigrew scored just once all year and that was back in week two. He's been more consistent around 40 yards or so in recent games.

Calvin Johnson continues to be suffering from his left leg injury to the point that the Lions set up his routes to let him make cuts on his "good leg". Johnson ended with seven receptions for 129 yards in Jacksonville and was no worse after the game. Johnson said his knee will be an issue "indefinitely" but he is playing at a high level regardless. Johnson was held to only 54 yards on five catches in the last meeting with the Vikings. This is a different set of wideouts from what was used in week four. Nate Burleson is gone and Titus Young assumes his spot with Ryan Broyles becoming the #3. That worked great against the Seahawks with Young scoring twice in that game.

The Vikings are going to be without a healthy Percy Harvin and that will have a dramatic effect on the passing game of the Vikes that already has been shaky. This is a good time to travel to Minny and so long as special teams holds up this time, the Lions can win this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 7 10 8 5 6 26
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 15 12 17 15 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET CHI 0000032012 ***
Stafford needs 305 yards to crack the 5,000-yard mark, and Calvin Johnson is 108 shy of 2,000. The Lions already throw plenty anyway, here's one more reason to throw the ball even more. What else does Detroit have to play for?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mikel Leshoure, DET CHI 401000000 ***
Leshoure has scored in five of six, capitalizing on Calvin Johnson's inability to find the end zone. But the Bears have been stingy to opposing backs, giving up just six RB rushing scores on the year. Add in Joique Bell stealing looks--especially in the passing game, which constitutes the bulk of the Lions' game plan--and Leshoure is a difficult fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET CHI 6002200000 ****
Bush only gained 64 yards in the home game against the Pats but scored twice as a receiver last week against the Bills. The Pats have never allowed any runner to gain more than 83 yards in New England and it is less likely Bush will run in a score this time than last.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET CHI 006500000 ***
Bell might roll up some yardage as the Lions' third down/passing situation back, but there's limited fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET CHI 00121600000 ***
Da Bears held Megatron to three catches on 11 targets in the earlier meeting, but the two guys who picked up his slack--Titus Young and Ryan Broyles--are both out of the mix. CJ needs 108 yards to become CJ2K; over the past five he's averaged 17 targets, 10 catches, and 155 yards, so that mark is a given. Just don't expect a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kris Durham, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Seriously, this is the best wingman the Lions can come up with? Everything's going to Megatron regardless of whether or not he's covered, no reason to think Durham suddenly becomes a competent receiver in Week 17 against a Bears team that needs to win.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tony Scheffler, DET CHI 004501000 ***
With Brandon Pettigrew nicked Scheffler becomes the lead dog in the Lions' TEBC, but now he's sharing with Will Heller. Against a Bears D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in a month and only surrendered four all year, a half share isn't enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Heller, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Heller steps into Tony Scheffler's role now that Scheffler has taken on Brandon Pettigrew's duties. Meh.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K David Akers, DET CHI 2133 ***
Akers at home won't get skunked but may only kick extra points this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Hanson, DET CHI 2122 ***
The Lions probably can't send Hanson out a winner, but they could at least let him kick a couple for old time's sake.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET -----
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI -----
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 20 200,1
RB Toby Gerhart 10
RB Adrian Peterson 120,1 4-20
WR Jerome Simpson 3-40
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30,1
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings are on a two game losing streak and have the look of a 5-4 team that is about to fall apart. This week could be a win though Percy Harvin will be an issue and that takes away the only dangerous part of the passing game. After the week 11 bye, the schedule is about as murderous as can be. Road games in CHI, GB, STL and HOU face some great defenses. Home games versus CHI and GB are no fun either. It is entirely possible that the Vikings could even win this week and still end 6-9 on the season.

Christian Ponder's production is all over the map. He comes off a 63 yard game in Seattle and that wasn't even his worst (week 7 - 58 yards vs ARI). But he threw for 352 yards and two scores against the Redskins. Most notable this week was that Ponder passed for just 111 yards and no scores in Detroit earlier this year. Potentially losing Percy Harvin has to be disastrous to this offense that really does not rely on anyone else in the passing game.

Harvin suffered hamstring issues that were bothering him last week and then he suffered a severe ankle sprain. He has not ruled himself out this week and may gut it out but his level of play is almost certain to be reduced given he was still on crutches earlier in the week. None of the other wideouts matter here and this unit has only produced a collective five scoring catches all year anyway. Harvin has three of those touchdowns and and six games with over 80 yards. No other receiver has any games with as many as 80 yards. That rather dampens the outlook.

Harvin will be followed closely this week but at worst he is a game time decision and if he plays - how effective will he be? He is all they really have. Kyle Rudolph has marginal yardage but did score five times this year. His previous meeting with the Lions only produced two catches for eight yards though. Scary too is that Rudolph had no catches in two of the last three games.

Peterson is a lock to run well this week and he already gained 102 yards on 21 carries in Detroit. The only question here is how heavy of a load can they get to Peterson and if the already shaky passing scheme can weather a lower level of play from Harvin - if he even plays.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 28 17 23 20 8 16
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 12 5 19 16 21 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Christian Ponder, MIN GB 20000019001 ***
Ponder hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 10 and has three passing TDs in the last five games. He's all about managing the game, and fantasy teams don't need to have the game managed for them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN GB 12015300000 ***
Peterson is playing through an abdomen injury... but if he can rush for 1,800 yards in the year since having his knee surgically repaired, what's another 100 in a "win and you're in" game? There's also a reasonable chance AD reprises the 210 he dropped on Green Bay in the earlier meeting, which would give him the NFL single-season rushing record. After all he's accomplished to this point, now is not the time to start betting against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN GB 004501000 ***
Jennings posted 4-46 in the earlier meeting with Minnesota, his first game back after an extended injury absence. He scored last week and now has a month of games under his belt. Add in Jordy Nelson's questionable status and Randall Cobb's bum ankle and Jennings could be back atop the Packers' passing game pecking order this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN GB 003400000 ***
Wright's 53 yards last week was the most by a Minnesota wideout since his 62 yard outburst back in Week 10. So if you're forced to start a Vikings wide receiver, he's the best of a sorry lot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerome Simpson, MIN GB 002300000 ***
Simpson is an occasional contributor in the passing game, but nowhere near worthy of a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN GB 004401000 ***
Rudolph scored last week and also scored in the earlier meeting with the Packers. His yardage of late hasn't been enough to justify a fantasy start--to be expected when a big day for your passing game means triple-digit yardage--but his nine touchdowns have him in range of the Vikings' team record for tight ends. Not that they'll be preoccupied with the playoff berth or another record, but it does increase the likelihood Rudy finds the end zone again this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN GB 3211 ***
The Pro Bowler missed his only attempt in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, but with eight treys in the past two games and a big leg that's already netted him the rookie record for 50-yard field goals he's tough to bet against.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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