FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: IND 20, JAC 14 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton

The 5-3 Colts are only 1-2 on the road but the 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 at home. This is a replay of week three when the Jaguars when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a score. The Jaguars won 22-17 based on his touchdown and five field goals. Now the tables are turned. The only win by the Jags this year was against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 280,1
RB Frank Gore 80,1 4-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-70,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Things have gone well for a team that was only 2-14 last season. A winning record alone is success but this was a team that purged almost all of the aging vets and truly tilled the soil for a new crew. As Robert Griffin III continues to man the ever-sinking Redskins franchise, Andrew Luck is assuredly moving forward in the Rookie of the Year race. As was noted elsewhere, Luck sports a 5-3 record and has thrown for 2404 yards - exactly the same as Peyton Manning is currently.

Andrew Luck just set the all-time rookie record with 433 yards in a single game thanks to the Miami Dolphins and he tossed two scores. Luck originally passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Jaguars who are usually beaten by the run instead of the pass. Or by both. There's no risk of the Colts being a run-first team this week and Luck gets to extract some revenge for the week three loss.

Donald Brown only caught one pass last week before leaving and his knee has been sore. He's already expected to miss this week and that give Vick Ballard a chance to shine. Back in week three, Brown rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries when the Jags visited and Ballard ran five times for only 12 yards. The Jaguars have already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and this week should be better than the first meeting.

Coby Fleener will miss this week because of his shoulder and Dwayne Allen gets to start after posting 56 and 75 yards in just the last two games. This is hardly Gronkowski and Hernandez but at least Luck is starting to use them more. Back in week three, Allen caught five passes for 35 yards.

Reggie Wayne has just thee scores on the year but ends up with six to eight catches in almost every week and never falls below 70 yards. He's getting help from Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton now and Avery comes off a five catch, 108 yard effort against the Fins where he injured his hip and had to leave the game. He was replaced in the third quarter by Hilton who then caught almost all of his six receptions for 102 yards and a score. Avery is tentatively expected back this week though he only produced 28 yards on two catches in the previous Jaguars game. Wayne caught eight passes for 88 yards then while Hilton had his best game of the year when he turned four receptions into 113 yards and a score. It would have been great for Hilton if Avery did not play though it did not matter so much in the last game with the Jags.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 30 4 14 17 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 18 29 20 4 26 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND ARI 0000019012 *
Brissett has a lively arm, so there's that ... and that's about it. Consider him nothing but the wildest of fliers in Week 2 DFS. Arizona's secondary was lit up last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND ARI 4003200000 *
Arizona is strong against running backs, and Gore has no quarterback play to speak of to keep the Cards off of his back. Sit the veteran in this one.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND ARI 2002200000 ***
Mack saw his own series in the first quarter and had three attempts for -1 yard in the first half to Gore's seven attempts. The rook added a 21-yard reception, but the bulk of his touches came after the game was well out of hand.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND ARI 002501000 *
Projecting any degree of success for Colts receivers is taking a little bit of a leap of faith. The Cards were shredded in the second half by Matthew Stafford, making this the best statistical opponent of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND ARI 004500000 *
The QB mess makes Hilton a weak candidate for success. Jacoby Brissett's big arm would help, if he's named the starter. Look for safer paths to points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND ARI 004400000 *
Doyle had just two grabs in Week 1, and while his quarterback situation currently stinks, fantasy owners should not give up all hope. Keep him in roster until this situation improves. Arizona allowed only two TE catches for nine yards last week and was dominant vs. the position in 2016.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND ARI 2211 ***
The ageless wonder was off in Week 1. Expectations should be lowered with the quarterback concerns of the Colts. You shouldn't have a problem finding a better matchup on the wire.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30 3-20
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars continue their descent this year with a chance to sweep the Colts if they could somehow magically create an offense that can somehow score more than 15 points in a game. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew merely made the Jaguars even less likely to win anything besides a trap game. It also made the close losses cease and the trouncing's begin. This week will be an interesting marker because it goes against the only team they beat this year and even though this time it is at home, the Jags are not even favored. Nor will they be other than potentially the Titans game in three weeks.

HC Mike Mularkey won't come clean on exactly what Jones-Drew's affliction is or what the prognosis is for return. He still is not walking around or practicing and has been ruled out this week but not for week 11 because, you know, the Jags want to keep the Texans guessing who the losing running back will be. Jones-Drew was the bulk of the offense in that only win of the year back in week three when he gained 177 yards and a score. That ended up to be his only big game of the year. Rashad Jennings is the starter now and he only produced 52 total yards last week. He needs to face a great team that doesn't care (like the Packers) in order for him to post stats of any measure. The Colts won't be handing out garbage time coupons in this matchup.

It still all comes back to the quarterback situation with Blaine Gabbert coming off a somewhat credible 220 yard, two touchdown effort that was mostly just garbage time allowed by the Lions who still won by 17 points. That was only the third of eight games that Gabbert passed for more than 186 yards. He's thrown nine scores this year against five interceptions. Gabbert passed for 155 yards and one score in Indy this year. He only completed 10 of 21 passes in that game.

Cecil Shorts is the new starting flanker and yet only posted three catches for 56 yards last week. He caught just one pass in the Colts game earlier this season but it went for an 80-yard touchdown. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson combined for only one catch in that game. Robinson is now the #3 receiver but caught six passes for 41 yards last week. Blackmon also finally scored his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but only caught one pass for seven yards in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 24 29 31 30 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 25 27 1 8 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC TEN 20000018011 ***
In Week 8 last year, Bortles threw for a cool 337-3-0 on 54 attempts. He went for another 325 in the encore two months later. This time around, he is without his top receiver and quarterbacks a ball-control offensive game plan.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC TEN 10013200000 ***
Tennessee gave up the ninth most offensive yards to RBs in Week 1, and now that Allen Robinson is a thing of the past, Jacksonville has no other obvious weapon. Fournette can ball with the pros, no doubt. Tennessee was the second worst matchup rating in 2016.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC TEN 3001100000 ***
Ivory's only worth is as a handcuff to Leonard Fournette.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC TEN 004401000 **
Lee scored (3-37-1) in the Week 16 matchup with Tennessee last year after posting a 1-21-0 line in the earlier game. Tennessee ended the year as the second best matchup for wideouts. Oakland showed last week this isn't a drastically improved secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC TEN 004600000 **
Hurns will see increased target volume with Allen Robinson on IR. Last year, Tennessee provided the second easiest matchup for receivers, one in which even Hurns was able to exploit. In Week 8, his lone meeting with them, Hurns went for seven catches, 98 yards and a score on 11 looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Arrelious Benn, JAC TEN 002300000 ***
Yep, he's still in the NFL. Benn is unworthy of fantasy attention at this time.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC TEN 2233 ***
Accuracy problems are always a concern. Opportunities are important, of course, and Tennessee gave up four FGAs last week to Oakland.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

a d v e r t i s e m e n t