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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: IND 20, JAC 14 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton

The 5-3 Colts are only 1-2 on the road but the 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 at home. This is a replay of week three when the Jaguars when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a score. The Jaguars won 22-17 based on his touchdown and five field goals. Now the tables are turned. The only win by the Jags this year was against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 280,1
RB Vick Ballard 80,1 4-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 70,1 4-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-70,1
WR Hakeem Nicks 4-60
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Things have gone well for a team that was only 2-14 last season. A winning record alone is success but this was a team that purged almost all of the aging vets and truly tilled the soil for a new crew. As Robert Griffin III continues to man the ever-sinking Redskins franchise, Andrew Luck is assuredly moving forward in the Rookie of the Year race. As was noted elsewhere, Luck sports a 5-3 record and has thrown for 2404 yards - exactly the same as Peyton Manning is currently.

Andrew Luck just set the all-time rookie record with 433 yards in a single game thanks to the Miami Dolphins and he tossed two scores. Luck originally passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Jaguars who are usually beaten by the run instead of the pass. Or by both. There's no risk of the Colts being a run-first team this week and Luck gets to extract some revenge for the week three loss.

Donald Brown only caught one pass last week before leaving and his knee has been sore. He's already expected to miss this week and that give Vick Ballard a chance to shine. Back in week three, Brown rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries when the Jags visited and Ballard ran five times for only 12 yards. The Jaguars have already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and this week should be better than the first meeting.

Coby Fleener will miss this week because of his shoulder and Dwayne Allen gets to start after posting 56 and 75 yards in just the last two games. This is hardly Gronkowski and Hernandez but at least Luck is starting to use them more. Back in week three, Allen caught five passes for 35 yards.

Reggie Wayne has just thee scores on the year but ends up with six to eight catches in almost every week and never falls below 70 yards. He's getting help from Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton now and Avery comes off a five catch, 108 yard effort against the Fins where he injured his hip and had to leave the game. He was replaced in the third quarter by Hilton who then caught almost all of his six receptions for 102 yards and a score. Avery is tentatively expected back this week though he only produced 28 yards on two catches in the previous Jaguars game. Wayne caught eight passes for 88 yards then while Hilton had his best game of the year when he turned four receptions into 113 yards and a score. It would have been great for Hilton if Avery did not play though it did not matter so much in the last game with the Jags.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 30 4 14 17 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 18 29 20 4 26 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @TEN 0000023010 *
Luck blew up the Titans to the tune of 370 and 4 when they met back in Week 3. He's been somewhat off that pace of late, with three straight under 200 yards, but as long as the Colts don't get cute and sit him down for Matt Hasselbeck he's as dangerous a fantasy quarterback as there is.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dan Herron, IND @TEN 6013200000 **
Plenty of opportunity here against a defense that's allowed at least one RB score in nine straight games and 12 of the last 13. The Colts had Ahmad Bradshaw (9-65, 2-18-1 and Trent Richardson (14-57, 3-23) do the damage last week; sans Bradshaw, Herron should see plenty of opportunities with this favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @TEN 5002100000 ***
Richardson has been usurped as the Colts' primary ball-carrier, but that doesn't mean he can't hang out--and maybe fall into some fantasy value. Prior to last week Richardson had been splitting carries with Dan Herron, then in last week's blowout loss to the Cowboys things started getting weird. In a favorable matchup you could wring Richardson's last remaining drops of fantasy value from him, but the yield isn't likely to be very big.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @TEN 008800000 **
With TY Hilton out Nicks was Eli Manning's go to guy last week. He's playing for a contract, but what Nicks really needs this week is for Hilton to miss another game and leave Nicks in charge of the receiver rotation. Otherwise he's a risky bet for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND @TEN 004300000 ***
Wayne remains firmly in the twilight of his stellar career; there's not much fantasy value here, either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @TEN 002300000 *
Hilton didn't play last week, and his status for this week's game has yet to be determined. However, Indy's in the playoffs so even if TY is ready expect reduced snaps as the Colts attempt to keep him fresh for a run at the Lombardi.
Update: Hilton is listed as questionable, and with nothing to play for it would be surprising if the Colts gave him more than a few "stay warm" snaps this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND @TEN 005601000 **
Like his running mate, Dwayne Allen, Fleener also scored in the earlier meeting with Tennessee. That's a formidable one-two punch for Andrew Luck to lean on, and there's no reason to think he won't do just that this week.
Update: Indy's TE punch will be limited to just a "one" with Allen ruled out due to a knee injury, but the last time Fleener flew solo he was a fantasy stud so this might just work out in Coby's favor.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @TEN 2222 ***
You can't rest the kicker, so even if the rest of Indy's JV is on the field they should still provide ample opportunity for Vinatieri to swing the leg--maybe even to the tune of the 11 points he scored against the Titans earlier this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 10
WR Justin Blackmon 3-40,1
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars continue their descent this year with a chance to sweep the Colts if they could somehow magically create an offense that can somehow score more than 15 points in a game. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew merely made the Jaguars even less likely to win anything besides a trap game. It also made the close losses cease and the trouncing's begin. This week will be an interesting marker because it goes against the only team they beat this year and even though this time it is at home, the Jags are not even favored. Nor will they be other than potentially the Titans game in three weeks.

HC Mike Mularkey won't come clean on exactly what Jones-Drew's affliction is or what the prognosis is for return. He still is not walking around or practicing and has been ruled out this week but not for week 11 because, you know, the Jags want to keep the Texans guessing who the losing running back will be. Jones-Drew was the bulk of the offense in that only win of the year back in week three when he gained 177 yards and a score. That ended up to be his only big game of the year. Rashad Jennings is the starter now and he only produced 52 total yards last week. He needs to face a great team that doesn't care (like the Packers) in order for him to post stats of any measure. The Colts won't be handing out garbage time coupons in this matchup.

It still all comes back to the quarterback situation with Blaine Gabbert coming off a somewhat credible 220 yard, two touchdown effort that was mostly just garbage time allowed by the Lions who still won by 17 points. That was only the third of eight games that Gabbert passed for more than 186 yards. He's thrown nine scores this year against five interceptions. Gabbert passed for 155 yards and one score in Indy this year. He only completed 10 of 21 passes in that game.

Cecil Shorts is the new starting flanker and yet only posted three catches for 56 yards last week. He caught just one pass in the Colts game earlier this season but it went for an 80-yard touchdown. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson combined for only one catch in that game. Robinson is now the #3 receiver but caught six passes for 41 yards last week. Blackmon also finally scored his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but only caught one pass for seven yards in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 24 29 31 30 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 25 27 1 8 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 30000019001 ***
Bortles threw for 336 yards in the earlier meeting with Tennessee, but he accompanied that total with just one TD--and he hasn't had a game as helpful to fantasy owners since. No reason to reach for him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC @HOU 4002100000 ***
The Texans are far from an easy mark from running backs; since their Week 10 bye the haven't allowed a running back touchdown, and only one back (Jeremy Hill) has rushed for more than 60 yards. Gerhart should see the largest volume of carries, but doubtful it will be enough for him to squeeze out fantasy value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @HOU 004500000 ***
It's been a consistent grouping of Jacksonville receivers; last week it was Lee's 4-65 that paced the pack. With three mouths to feed and not a lot of stats to go around, your best bet is to avoid the Jacksonville WR situation entirely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Hurns found the end zone the last time these teams met, part of a 5-36-1 afternoon. He's been wildly inconsistent, with an upside of his 7-112-2 game and a downside of being the third wheel in Jacksonville's passing game. The upside doesn't come nearly frequently enough, so plan accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @HOU 002300000 ***
Shorts continues to audition for his impending free agency, though last week's 2-15 won't add much to his bank account. You'll want to find your fantasy receivers elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @HOU 003400000 ***
Lewis' 69 yards in the earlier meeting with Houston was the biggest TE game the Texans had allowed since Week 1. It was also Lewis' best effort since Week 2; while he scored last week, his typical three or four targets doesn't offer enough opportunity for him to be a reliable fantasy performer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @HOU 2100 ****
Scobee's recent surge has him over five points per game for the season, and he tallied seven when facing the Texans three weeks back. So if something in the half-dozen neighborhood floats your boat, Scobee is your guy.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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