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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: IND 20, JAC 14 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton

The 5-3 Colts are only 1-2 on the road but the 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 at home. This is a replay of week three when the Jaguars when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a score. The Jaguars won 22-17 based on his touchdown and five field goals. Now the tables are turned. The only win by the Jags this year was against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 280,1
RB Vick Ballard 80,1 4-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 70,1 4-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-70,1
WR Hakeem Nicks 4-60
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Things have gone well for a team that was only 2-14 last season. A winning record alone is success but this was a team that purged almost all of the aging vets and truly tilled the soil for a new crew. As Robert Griffin III continues to man the ever-sinking Redskins franchise, Andrew Luck is assuredly moving forward in the Rookie of the Year race. As was noted elsewhere, Luck sports a 5-3 record and has thrown for 2404 yards - exactly the same as Peyton Manning is currently.

Andrew Luck just set the all-time rookie record with 433 yards in a single game thanks to the Miami Dolphins and he tossed two scores. Luck originally passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Jaguars who are usually beaten by the run instead of the pass. Or by both. There's no risk of the Colts being a run-first team this week and Luck gets to extract some revenge for the week three loss.

Donald Brown only caught one pass last week before leaving and his knee has been sore. He's already expected to miss this week and that give Vick Ballard a chance to shine. Back in week three, Brown rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries when the Jags visited and Ballard ran five times for only 12 yards. The Jaguars have already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and this week should be better than the first meeting.

Coby Fleener will miss this week because of his shoulder and Dwayne Allen gets to start after posting 56 and 75 yards in just the last two games. This is hardly Gronkowski and Hernandez but at least Luck is starting to use them more. Back in week three, Allen caught five passes for 35 yards.

Reggie Wayne has just thee scores on the year but ends up with six to eight catches in almost every week and never falls below 70 yards. He's getting help from Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton now and Avery comes off a five catch, 108 yard effort against the Fins where he injured his hip and had to leave the game. He was replaced in the third quarter by Hilton who then caught almost all of his six receptions for 102 yards and a score. Avery is tentatively expected back this week though he only produced 28 yards on two catches in the previous Jaguars game. Wayne caught eight passes for 88 yards then while Hilton had his best game of the year when he turned four receptions into 113 yards and a score. It would have been great for Hilton if Avery did not play though it did not matter so much in the last game with the Jags.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 30 4 14 17 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 18 29 20 4 26 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @DAL 20000030031 ***
Even when Luck is bad, he's good. Luck posted his worst fantasy outing of the season last week, but it still involved two TDs. So that's the floor, with the ceiling one of the eight games he's posted of 30-plus fantasy points. Not a bad neighborhood to be in.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dan Herron, IND @DAL 3004400000 ***
The Cowboys have given up 10 RB TDs in the past five games, and with Herron the vastly more productive back he's the more likely to claim a piece of that pie. That said, he's still inexplicably sharing touches with Trent Richardson, so there's a bit of risk involved.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @DAL 300000000 ***
Richardson still gets some touches, and the Cowboys have been forthcoming with running back scores--not just to feature backs, either; the likes of Chris Polk, Andre Williams and Marion Grice have gotten in on the action--so if you're desperate you at least know he's getting some carries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @DAL 004601000 *
Primary receivers with speed have been the Cowboys' bugaboo of late, from Cecil Shorts (5-119) to Odell Beckham Jr. (10-146-2) to Jeremy Maclin twice (8-108, 4-98). Indy's entry in this sweepstakes would be Hilton, who's targeted more than enough to put up similar statlines.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @DAL 004500000 ***
Moncrief should be the Colts' WR2, but Reggie Wayne is hanging around and Hakeem Nicks swipes some looks from time to time so he's far from a sure thing.It's also worth noting that only once all year--the Rams, back in Week 3--have multiple wideouts scored in the same game against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND @DAL 003200000 ***
At this juncture Wayne is a mere shadow of his former fantasy self. You can do better.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @DAL 002200000 ***
Nicks emerges from time to time to swipe a touchdown from Donte Moncrief, but he's far too unreliable to be banked on for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND @DAL 005601000 ***
Fleecer sees fewer snaps but more targets than Dwayne Allen; unfortunately when both are in the lineup Allen has been the more productive while Fleener takes a back seat. It's a very good matchup for both tight ends, though again Fleener flies wingman when both Indy TEs are healthy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @DAL 003201000 ***
The better blocker of Indy's tight ends, Allen is seeing more snaps because of it. And more snaps against a team that struggles to defend the tight end means more fantasy opportunities for Allen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @DAL 3333 ***
The bad news: three of Vinatieri's four lowest-scoring games have come in the last three weeks. The good news: Vegas likes this one for points, and points mean Vinny gets his--by ones or by threes.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 10
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars continue their descent this year with a chance to sweep the Colts if they could somehow magically create an offense that can somehow score more than 15 points in a game. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew merely made the Jaguars even less likely to win anything besides a trap game. It also made the close losses cease and the trouncing's begin. This week will be an interesting marker because it goes against the only team they beat this year and even though this time it is at home, the Jags are not even favored. Nor will they be other than potentially the Titans game in three weeks.

HC Mike Mularkey won't come clean on exactly what Jones-Drew's affliction is or what the prognosis is for return. He still is not walking around or practicing and has been ruled out this week but not for week 11 because, you know, the Jags want to keep the Texans guessing who the losing running back will be. Jones-Drew was the bulk of the offense in that only win of the year back in week three when he gained 177 yards and a score. That ended up to be his only big game of the year. Rashad Jennings is the starter now and he only produced 52 total yards last week. He needs to face a great team that doesn't care (like the Packers) in order for him to post stats of any measure. The Colts won't be handing out garbage time coupons in this matchup.

It still all comes back to the quarterback situation with Blaine Gabbert coming off a somewhat credible 220 yard, two touchdown effort that was mostly just garbage time allowed by the Lions who still won by 17 points. That was only the third of eight games that Gabbert passed for more than 186 yards. He's thrown nine scores this year against five interceptions. Gabbert passed for 155 yards and one score in Indy this year. He only completed 10 of 21 passes in that game.

Cecil Shorts is the new starting flanker and yet only posted three catches for 56 yards last week. He caught just one pass in the Colts game earlier this season but it went for an 80-yard touchdown. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson combined for only one catch in that game. Robinson is now the #3 receiver but caught six passes for 41 yards last week. Blackmon also finally scored his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but only caught one pass for seven yards in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 24 29 31 30 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 25 27 1 8 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC TEN 10000025011 ***
Bortles has but one multiple passing TD outing in his 11 NFL starts, none in his past five games. He threw for 336 and 1 in the earlier meeting with Tennessee; he's banged up and it's a short week, so that feels like the top end of his prospects here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC TEN 5012100000 ***
Gerhart will get first crack at taking advantage of one of the league's softest run defenses. If you're reaching for fantasy help, he's a guy that could pay off--probably not 100-yard help, though the Titans have already allowed seven backs to cross that threshold including five in the last seven games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC TEN 300000000 ***
Toby Gerhart gets first crack at the carries, leaving Storm with table scraps. It's a favorable matchup, but the Jags need to get one back to fantasy relevancy before worrying about a second.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC TEN 006800000 ***
Shorts has been the more frequently targeted Jaguar, though barely, over the past three games. Unfortunately, he has fewer catches and yardage in those games than either Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns and has failed to reach the end zone. He posted 10-103 on 16 targets in the first meeting with Tennessee, so if you're forced to start a Jaguar receiver he's your best bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC TEN 005700000 ***
Lee has come on of late, but this is still three wideouts equally splitting what amounts to a minuscule amount of passing game production so proceed with caution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC TEN 004300000 ***
Despite Cecil Shorts getting more targets, Hurns has matched fellow rookie Marqise Lee in catches, yardage and scores over the past three games. Still, it's a one-third share of some pretty ordinary numbers from Blake Bortles, so you can likely do better fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC TEN 003501000 ***
Lewis isn't seeing consistent enough targets to warrant a fantasy start--even against a Tennessee defense that gave up 3-91-1 to Clay Harbor in the earlier meeting with Jacksonville.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC TEN 2222 ***
Scobee has come alive with three straight multiple field goal games, and no team gives up more kicker points than the Titans. Of course, the last time these two juggernauts got together Scobee managed two points so ease back on the throttle a bit.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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