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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: IND 20, JAC 14 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton

The 5-3 Colts are only 1-2 on the road but the 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 at home. This is a replay of week three when the Jaguars when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a score. The Jaguars won 22-17 based on his touchdown and five field goals. Now the tables are turned. The only win by the Jags this year was against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 280,1
RB Vick Ballard 80,1 4-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 70,1 4-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-70,1
WR Hakeem Nicks 4-60
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Things have gone well for a team that was only 2-14 last season. A winning record alone is success but this was a team that purged almost all of the aging vets and truly tilled the soil for a new crew. As Robert Griffin III continues to man the ever-sinking Redskins franchise, Andrew Luck is assuredly moving forward in the Rookie of the Year race. As was noted elsewhere, Luck sports a 5-3 record and has thrown for 2404 yards - exactly the same as Peyton Manning is currently.

Andrew Luck just set the all-time rookie record with 433 yards in a single game thanks to the Miami Dolphins and he tossed two scores. Luck originally passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Jaguars who are usually beaten by the run instead of the pass. Or by both. There's no risk of the Colts being a run-first team this week and Luck gets to extract some revenge for the week three loss.

Donald Brown only caught one pass last week before leaving and his knee has been sore. He's already expected to miss this week and that give Vick Ballard a chance to shine. Back in week three, Brown rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries when the Jags visited and Ballard ran five times for only 12 yards. The Jaguars have already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and this week should be better than the first meeting.

Coby Fleener will miss this week because of his shoulder and Dwayne Allen gets to start after posting 56 and 75 yards in just the last two games. This is hardly Gronkowski and Hernandez but at least Luck is starting to use them more. Back in week three, Allen caught five passes for 35 yards.

Reggie Wayne has just thee scores on the year but ends up with six to eight catches in almost every week and never falls below 70 yards. He's getting help from Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton now and Avery comes off a five catch, 108 yard effort against the Fins where he injured his hip and had to leave the game. He was replaced in the third quarter by Hilton who then caught almost all of his six receptions for 102 yards and a score. Avery is tentatively expected back this week though he only produced 28 yards on two catches in the previous Jaguars game. Wayne caught eight passes for 88 yards then while Hilton had his best game of the year when he turned four receptions into 113 yards and a score. It would have been great for Hilton if Avery did not play though it did not matter so much in the last game with the Jags.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 30 4 14 17 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 18 29 20 4 26 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @NYG 20000031030 ****
Luck has six straight 300-yard games and multiple touchdowns in every game this season; you're going to trot him out against any defense, doesn't matter who. Though it doesn't hurt that the Giants have allowed multiple TDs in back-to-back games, does it?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND @NYG 4004401000 ***
Bradshaw gets the third-down work, a healthy share of the goal line work, and if Trent Richardson isn't fully healthy an increased share of all the other stuff as well. He's the more dynamic and more effective back in Indy's stable, so he's at least as good of a bet as Richardson to capitalize on a Giants' defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers and at least one RB TD in six of seven games this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @NYG 401000000 **
Richardson returns to action just in time to face a Giants defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts and at least one RB TD in six of seven games. Whether or not he returns to his lead role in the Indy backfield remains to be seen however, and even if he does Ahmad Bradshaw has been the more effective fantasy play anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @NYG 004601000 **
It's a revenge game for Nicks, who dogged the Giants with a zero-TD swan song last season. Revenge would be more likely has Nicks not amassed a paltry 8-86 in the five games since he last saw the end zone. It's not a matter of targets, either; that 8-86 came on 26 targets. It would take a concerted effort by the Colts to rub Tom Coughlin's face in a Nicks TD for revenge to happen here, and Indy probably doesn't care that much about a free-agent-to-be WR3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @NYG 0081100000 ****
Three straight 100-yard efforts, six straight with at least 80 yards... yeah, Hilton's handling the transition to WR1 just fine. No reason for his roll to slow against a Giants secondary that's already allowed four feature receivers to reach triple-digit yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @NYG 003400000 ***
Moncrief has moved into the WR2 role in Indy, just in time to capitalize on a matchup with a Giants' secondary that's allowed fantasy helpers to multiple WRs in three of the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @NYG 002201000 ****
Over the past two games the Giants have allowed 210 yards and four TDs to opposing tight ends. The Colts have a TE TD in every game this season, and even if Allen has to share some stats with Coby Fleener this is a favorable enough matchup that Allen--heck, maybe both Indy TEs--belongs in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @NYG 2144 ***
Multiple PATs in every game, multiple FGs in every game since Week 1... Vinatieri is getting ample opportunity to swing the leg on an every-week basis.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 10
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars continue their descent this year with a chance to sweep the Colts if they could somehow magically create an offense that can somehow score more than 15 points in a game. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew merely made the Jaguars even less likely to win anything besides a trap game. It also made the close losses cease and the trouncing's begin. This week will be an interesting marker because it goes against the only team they beat this year and even though this time it is at home, the Jags are not even favored. Nor will they be other than potentially the Titans game in three weeks.

HC Mike Mularkey won't come clean on exactly what Jones-Drew's affliction is or what the prognosis is for return. He still is not walking around or practicing and has been ruled out this week but not for week 11 because, you know, the Jags want to keep the Texans guessing who the losing running back will be. Jones-Drew was the bulk of the offense in that only win of the year back in week three when he gained 177 yards and a score. That ended up to be his only big game of the year. Rashad Jennings is the starter now and he only produced 52 total yards last week. He needs to face a great team that doesn't care (like the Packers) in order for him to post stats of any measure. The Colts won't be handing out garbage time coupons in this matchup.

It still all comes back to the quarterback situation with Blaine Gabbert coming off a somewhat credible 220 yard, two touchdown effort that was mostly just garbage time allowed by the Lions who still won by 17 points. That was only the third of eight games that Gabbert passed for more than 186 yards. He's thrown nine scores this year against five interceptions. Gabbert passed for 155 yards and one score in Indy this year. He only completed 10 of 21 passes in that game.

Cecil Shorts is the new starting flanker and yet only posted three catches for 56 yards last week. He caught just one pass in the Colts game earlier this season but it went for an 80-yard touchdown. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson combined for only one catch in that game. Robinson is now the #3 receiver but caught six passes for 41 yards last week. Blackmon also finally scored his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but only caught one pass for seven yards in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 24 29 31 30 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 25 27 1 8 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @CIN 30000024012 ***
Bortles' best fantasy outing is still the second half of the Week 3 game in which he replaced Chad Henne. His prospects at providing that first wire-to-wire fantasy winner are slim here against a Cincy D that's allowed a total of three passing TDs in four home games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @CIN 6003200000 **
Robinson's run of 100-yard games likely comes to an end here; the Bengals have ceded 46, 61, 25 and 68 yards to opposing feature backs in four previous home games. They have, however, allowed RB TDs in five straight and six of seven so there's a chance Robinson gives you a little garbage-time fantasy bump.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @CIN 006700000 ***
Jaguars WRs have a total of two TDs in the past five games; the Bengals have surrendered just three WR TDs all year. At least Robinson holds value as one of the two primary targets, and the Jags will likely be forced to throw a lot here, but you're still grasping at straws.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @CIN 003400000 ****
Hurns Week 1: 110 yards, 2 TDs. Hurns since: 35 yards per game, 1 total TD. A matchup with a Cincy D that's allowed only three WR TDs and 2 100-yard games all year isn't likely to bump him off the Frisman Jackson fast track.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @CIN 004300000 ****
It took Shorts 16 targets to get his last game of fantasy note; while he's one of the Jags' top receivers he's not seeing that workload on a regular basis. And a matchup with a Cincy secondary that's allowed only three WR TDs and two 100-yard games all year isn't likely to offer respite.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC @CIN 004401000 **
If you must start a Jaguar this week, Harbor might be your guy. It's a favorable matchup with a Cincy D that's allowed seven different tight ends to top 50 yards against them, four in the past four games, as well as four TE TDs in that same four-game span. But here's hoping you don't have to start a Jaguar this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @CIN 2211 ***
Scobee has yet to record a double-digit point effort this season; get your kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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