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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: IND 20, JAC 14 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Vick Ballard, T.Y. Hilton

The 5-3 Colts are only 1-2 on the road but the 1-7 Jaguars are 0-4 at home. This is a replay of week three when the Jaguars when Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards and a score. The Jaguars won 22-17 based on his touchdown and five field goals. Now the tables are turned. The only win by the Jags this year was against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC -----
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE -----
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 280,1
RB Vick Ballard 80,1 4-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 70,1 4-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-70,1
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Things have gone well for a team that was only 2-14 last season. A winning record alone is success but this was a team that purged almost all of the aging vets and truly tilled the soil for a new crew. As Robert Griffin III continues to man the ever-sinking Redskins franchise, Andrew Luck is assuredly moving forward in the Rookie of the Year race. As was noted elsewhere, Luck sports a 5-3 record and has thrown for 2404 yards - exactly the same as Peyton Manning is currently.

Andrew Luck just set the all-time rookie record with 433 yards in a single game thanks to the Miami Dolphins and he tossed two scores. Luck originally passed for 313 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting with the Jaguars who are usually beaten by the run instead of the pass. Or by both. There's no risk of the Colts being a run-first team this week and Luck gets to extract some revenge for the week three loss.

Donald Brown only caught one pass last week before leaving and his knee has been sore. He's already expected to miss this week and that give Vick Ballard a chance to shine. Back in week three, Brown rushed for 62 yards on 18 carries when the Jags visited and Ballard ran five times for only 12 yards. The Jaguars have already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs and this week should be better than the first meeting.

Coby Fleener will miss this week because of his shoulder and Dwayne Allen gets to start after posting 56 and 75 yards in just the last two games. This is hardly Gronkowski and Hernandez but at least Luck is starting to use them more. Back in week three, Allen caught five passes for 35 yards.

Reggie Wayne has just thee scores on the year but ends up with six to eight catches in almost every week and never falls below 70 yards. He's getting help from Donnie Avery and T.Y. Hilton now and Avery comes off a five catch, 108 yard effort against the Fins where he injured his hip and had to leave the game. He was replaced in the third quarter by Hilton who then caught almost all of his six receptions for 102 yards and a score. Avery is tentatively expected back this week though he only produced 28 yards on two catches in the previous Jaguars game. Wayne caught eight passes for 88 yards then while Hilton had his best game of the year when he turned four receptions into 113 yards and a score. It would have been great for Hilton if Avery did not play though it did not matter so much in the last game with the Jags.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 30 4 14 17 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 18 29 20 4 26 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND JAC 0000025020 ***
Luck threw for 260 & 2 in Jacksonville earlier this season, and with Indy still able to move up to the third seed in the AFC he'll have every opportunity to match or better those numbers against a Jaguars defense that's allowed multiple touchdown tosses in five of their last six on the road.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND JAC 6003200000 ***
Richardson is seeing the volume to be effective, but Donald Brown is doing more with fewer touches. As such, Richardson's productivity is stunted, both by Brown taking looks off his plate and by Richardson simply not doing enough with the carries he is receiving. It'll be a disinterested Houston defense, so if you're hurting for backfield help Richardson has at least a modicum of upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Griff Whalen, IND JAC 005601000 ***
Whalen's work in the slot is taking equally from the Indy wideouts and Coby Fleener, to the point that he's been the Colts' most productive fantasy pass-catcher the past two games. If you're scraping for PPR help, he's definitely an option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND JAC 004600000 ***
Reggie Wayne blew up the Texans for 100 yards in the earlier meeting, but he's on the shelf so those looks will now likely head to Hilton. Good news, too, as it's been almost two months since TY posted a legitimate fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Da'Rick Rogers, IND JAC 003300000 ***
Rogers is staking his claim to the wingman gig in Indy, and it's a friendly enough matchup that he at least warrants fantasy consideration this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND JAC 004501000 ***
Fleener scored in the earlier matchup with Jacksonville, but he's done so little over the past month that he can't be trusted for fantasy help here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND JAC 3333 ****
Vinny posted his second-best game of the season in the earlier meeting with Jacksonville; he's also scored double digits in two straight, three of four, and four of six. As per usual, he's a solid fantasy bet again this week.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND -----
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Toby Gerhart 10
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars continue their descent this year with a chance to sweep the Colts if they could somehow magically create an offense that can somehow score more than 15 points in a game. The loss of Maurice Jones-Drew merely made the Jaguars even less likely to win anything besides a trap game. It also made the close losses cease and the trouncing's begin. This week will be an interesting marker because it goes against the only team they beat this year and even though this time it is at home, the Jags are not even favored. Nor will they be other than potentially the Titans game in three weeks.

HC Mike Mularkey won't come clean on exactly what Jones-Drew's affliction is or what the prognosis is for return. He still is not walking around or practicing and has been ruled out this week but not for week 11 because, you know, the Jags want to keep the Texans guessing who the losing running back will be. Jones-Drew was the bulk of the offense in that only win of the year back in week three when he gained 177 yards and a score. That ended up to be his only big game of the year. Rashad Jennings is the starter now and he only produced 52 total yards last week. He needs to face a great team that doesn't care (like the Packers) in order for him to post stats of any measure. The Colts won't be handing out garbage time coupons in this matchup.

It still all comes back to the quarterback situation with Blaine Gabbert coming off a somewhat credible 220 yard, two touchdown effort that was mostly just garbage time allowed by the Lions who still won by 17 points. That was only the third of eight games that Gabbert passed for more than 186 yards. He's thrown nine scores this year against five interceptions. Gabbert passed for 155 yards and one score in Indy this year. He only completed 10 of 21 passes in that game.

Cecil Shorts is the new starting flanker and yet only posted three catches for 56 yards last week. He caught just one pass in the Colts game earlier this season but it went for an 80-yard touchdown. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson combined for only one catch in that game. Robinson is now the #3 receiver but caught six passes for 41 yards last week. Blackmon also finally scored his first NFL touchdown last Sunday but only caught one pass for seven yards in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 24 29 31 30 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 25 27 1 8 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC @IND 0000018012 ***
Henne has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, though he hasn't topped 237 yards in any of those outings. He'll be better than Blaine Gabbert (179 & 0) was in the earlier meeting between these clubs; whether he'll do enough to be a fantasy helper is another matter entirely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Brown, JAC @IND 004600000 ***
Indy has shut out the last two receiving corps they've faced, and with Jacksonville down to its depth receivers there isn't much to see here. Brown has been the most successful of late, so if you're reaching he's the one to reach for.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ace Sanders, JAC @IND 003400000 ***
Sanders was a serviceable wingman in the earlier meeting with Indy, but he was a bit player last week against the Titans and has a total of just 63 yards the past three games. Tough to bank on him for any sort of fantasy contribution here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @IND 005301000 ****
No tight end is hotter than Lewis, who has scored in four straight. It's not a particularly favorable matchup here, but with all of Jacksonville's wideouts hurt Lewis has become the go-to guy.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @IND 1111 ****
Scobee has just one double-digit effort all year, and it certainly wasn't his three-point showing in the earlier meeting with Indy. Get your kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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