FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 50 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 2-30
WR Dwayne Bowe 3-40
TE Anthony Fasano 2-10,1

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @SD 0000024020 ***
Derek Carr's four TDs against the Chargers last week make you think with an extra week of prep Smith can at least be productive in San Diego. Plus, the last time he saw the Chargers, albeit at home, he went for 294 and 3. Dial those back a bit and bank on plenty of dumpoff love to Charles and Kelce and Smith carves out a fantasy helper for you this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @SD 8004201000 ***
Charles is back to at least close to his dominating fantasy self, but before you let expectations run amok consider that he has a grand total of 79 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards--with zero touchdowns--in his past two visits to San Diego. In fact, he's done nothing of fantasy note in America's most beautiful city since 2009. The Bolts aren't giving up much to opposing backs, though they did surrender four RB receiving scores in the first three games and last week let Darren McFreakin'Fadden take them for 80 yards on the ground. So again, Charles is solid, just not blow your socks off elite this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC @SD 300000000 ***
Last week's two-carry performance is far more indicative of what you'll get out of Davis with Jamaal Charles healthy--especially in a non-favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @SD 005600000 ***
Bowe has a decent track record in three games against the Chargers since Andy Reid took over, averaging roughly seven catches for 80 yards and a score in those tilts. And with the San Diego secondary being exposed by Derek Carr and the vaunted Raiders passing game his chances of another fantasy helper here are more than reasonable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @SD 004400000 ***
Tough to trust Kelce for fantasy assistance this week when Anthony Fasano saw twice as many targets last week and the Chargers have allowed just one TE TD on the year and an average of less than 40 yards per game to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @SD 1133 ***
Santos has topped five points only once, and a San Diego defense that's giving up an average of less than four per game isn't exactly a helper.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40
WR Lance Moore 4-60,1
TE Heath Miller 5-50,1
PK Shaun Suisham 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT HOU 0000028022 ***
The last four quarterbacks to face Houston have thrown multiple touchdown passes; the last two have both topped 300 yards. Big Ben has thrown for 314 and 365 in two home games, no reason to think he can't put on a show on Monday night.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT HOU 9005400000 ****
Bell has triple-digit yards from scrimmage in every game this season and is a must-start regardless of opponent. Doesn't hurt that Houston has allowed 100-plus combo yards to opposing backs in four straight games, an average of 164 yards per game in that span.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PIT HOU 300000000 ***
There might be enough table scraps for Blount to fall into some fantasy value on Monday night, but hopefully you have a more reliable option at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT HOU 008901000 ****
Opposing WR1s have scored in five straight against Houston. Brown has a streak of like a gazillion games in a row with at least five catches, as well as three 100-yard games and five TDs on the season. He's also lights out at home, with 5-116-1 and 7-131-2 to his credit. Plenty to like here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Markus Wheaton, PIT HOU 004600000 ***
The Texans have allowed multiple wideouts to score in two of their last three, but it's been a while since Wheaton was a fantasy factor--plus, Lance Moore swiped a secondary receiver touchdown last week. He's not unstartable, but there isn't much pointing towards cause for optimism.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Heath Miller, PIT HOU 003200000 ****
The Texans aren't a particularly favorable TE matchup, and Miller isn't a particularly effective fantasy tight end. Odds are you have a more enticing option at your disposal.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shaun Suisham, PIT HOU 3322 ***
After a fast start Suisham has been nothing special the last few weeks. If you're cool with solid, he's the kicker for you this week.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

a d v e r t i s e m e n t