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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC @LAR 20000035031 ***
The Rams yielded 273 rushing yards in Week 10, which limited Russell Wilson to only 176 yards -- he managed three TD strikes, though. Drew Brees had his way in Week 9 (346-4-0). Mahomes should be a great start again after last week's "down" game by his ridiculous standards. The game will be moved from Mexico City to LA due to poor field conditions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @LAR 6015601000 ***
In the past three weeks, the Rams have been pushed around by running backs. For the second time, Seattle owned them on the ground. Aaron Jones had a good day, and Alvin Kamara had an Alvin Kamara day. Otherwise, only three offensive TDs were scored by RBs in the previous seven games of 2018.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @LAR 0061001000 ***
The Rams face the Chiefs in LA for what looks like the showdown of the year to this point. Hill faces a matchup with a unit that has given up only 11.2 receptions per game (20th) but a score every 9.3 grabs (6th-highest rate). We've seen the Rams -- well, Marcus Peters, specifically -- get torched in recent weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC @LAR 003500000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, KC @LAR 003500000 *
All signs point to Watkins' return after a one-game absence. The matchup is strong, and in the last seven games, only one time has a receiving leader gone for fewer than 18.3 PPR points. LA has been 23.4 percent worse than the league average in PPR over the past three games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @LAR 006801000 ***
This is the eighth-worst matchup for catches allowed but fifth-best opponent to exploit for touchdowns. The Rams have granted three TDs over the course of the year, and all of which came in the past five weeks.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC @LAR 2244 ***
No writeup available

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
RB Stevan Ridley 100,1
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @JAC 0000026020 ***
Injuries have ravaged this secondary in the past month or so. Over the whole season, this matchup is 12.7 percent stronger than the league average. In the last three games, it's 24.8 percent better than the league mean. Unfortunately for the Jags, Big Ben is fresh off a five-TD game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James Conner, PIT @JAC 10014400000 ***
Conner cleared the concussion protocol Wednesday and is expected to be just fine for Week 11. The Jaguars present a tough matchup for the most part, though. This is the 19th-best opponent for total offensive yards per game by RBs, yet it is the eighth hardest for scoring a TD. Saquon Barkley (20.8 PPR) is the high-water mark for all RBs vs. the Jags, and four others have ranged from 14.6 to 18.7. Consider that range a success for Conner.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT @JAC 006901000 ***
Pittsburgh hosted the Jags twice in 2017, resulting in AB posting a pair of monster stat lines against what has been an otherwise dominant defense of his position. In the regular season, he went for 10-157-0 and a whopping 7-132-2 day in the 45-42 divisional playoff thriller. This one is in Jacksonville against a banged-up secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT @JAC 004500000 ***
In last year's two meetings, he wasn't much of a factor. In Week 5, Smith-Schuster caught a 4-58-0 line and only a three-catch, five-yard, one-TD line in the playoff meeting. Antonio Brown beasted in both, and this year's version of Jacksonville's secondary is good but nothing like last year's elite monster.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vance McDonald, PIT @JAC 002301000 ***
One in every nine catches has scored against the Jaguars at the hands of a tight end. McDonald should be a reasonable starting option with this top-12 matchup. Since Week 5, just three teams present a finer matchup. That one in nine figure jumps to an insane one in every 3.2 catches (5 TDs in the last four games).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chris Boswell, PIT @JAC 1133 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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