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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC SF 20000032040 ***
San Fran is one of four teams without an interception in this young season. The "bombs away" approach KC is taking on offense can always lead to mistakes, but Mahomes has been crisp with his decisions. The first-year starter has a date with the eighth-best matchup of the week using data from the first two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC SF 8012100000 ***
Hunt will need to defy the current trend if he wants to score vs. the Niners. None of the 64 touches resulted in an end zone visit. The matchup is favorable otherwise -- second-best for catches and 11th-best for offensive yards generated.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC SF 0071202000 ***
One in every 9.3 catches against the Niners by wide receivers has found paydirt thus far. San Fran has given up 207.5 yards (5th most) on 14 catches (12th) to the position. Hill should be in for another huge fantasy day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, KC SF 005801000 ***
Watkins showed up in a big way last week and should benefit from the single coverage based on the extra attention paid to Tyreek Hill. San Francisco has given up top-10 figures for non-PPR and reception-rewarding formats. Watkins is much better used in the former, particularly against an opponent that has allowed the fifth-most yards to WRs so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC SF 003400000 ***
Conley has no fantasy value at this time. The matchup is helpful, but he isn't involved consistently enough to matter.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC SF 007701000 ***
The 49ers have surrendered only five catches for 54 yards to tight ends, but two of those catches went into the end zone to make this the 11th-best matchup in non-PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC SF 1155 ***
All nine kicks have hit their mark against the 49ers in 2018. Six of them were touchdown-capping attempts, and this is a neutral matchup by all metrics.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
RB Stevan Ridley 100,1
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @TB 0000034031 ***
"Bend but don't break" has been the mantra of the Bucs. They have given up a whopping 386.5 yards (2nd most) and a touchdown every 18 completions (10th-stiffest ratio). Big Ben has everything needed to exploit the Tampa defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James Conner, PIT @TB 5014300000 ***
A week after 36 touches, Conner was given the ball only 13 times. He scored a touchdown to salvage some value and turn in a 17.5-point day in PPR scoring. The Buccaneers have given up the third-most PPR points in the first two weeks. One of every 9.6 touches has scored against the Bucs, good for the seventh-softest clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT @TB 0071001000 ***
Following an early-week dust-up, Brown should be among the best fantasy choices of the week. Nothing new there ... The Buccaneers have granted receivers the second-most catches and seventh-highest yardage figure in the first two weeks, but giving up three scores on 36 grabs ranks as the 10th-lowest clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT @TB 0061001000 ***
This could be another shootout for the Steelers. Tampa has given up 36 catches (2nd) for 395 yards (7th) and a trio of scores to receivers in this young season. The ratio of catches-to-TDs is low, but this group is not invincible.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Washington, PIT @TB 002300000 ***
The rookie is a reasonable bet for a touchdown almost any week, but his role is too limited to be considered seriously for anything but a DFS spot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jesse James, PIT @TB 004601000 ***
James has been involved in the early season. The return of Vance McDonald could lessen James' role, yet he's a flier because of the matchup. Tampa Bay has given up the most receptions (tied) at 20 and yards (210) while not allowing a touchdown to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chris Boswell, PIT @TB 1144 ***
Kickers have made just one of two field goal boots against the Bucs, adding 6-for-6 on field goals. The Buccaneers rate as the sixth-toughest matchup of the week based on early-season data.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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