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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 50 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 2-30
WR Dwayne Bowe 3-40
TE Anthony Fasano 2-10,1

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @MIA 40000019012 ***
The Dolphins haven't allowed a fantasy helper at quarterback; Smith has yet to provide one this season. No reason to change those expectations here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC @MIA 7016300000 *
Davis will get the call--and the bulk of the touches--against a defense that's allowed 250 combo yards to running backs this season. He's proven more than capable in the past, and this matchup tilts towards the favorable as well.
Update: Jamaal Charles is apparently back in the mix, taking a bite out of Davis' potential big weekend.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @MIA 00000000 *
High ankle sprains never hear as quickly as the original estimate, which likely means Charles sits this one out.
Update: Either Charles is the world's fastest healer, or the Chiefs misdiagnosed his high ankle sprain. Or maybe they're just desperate. In any event, Charles practiced on a limited basis Thursday and Friday, is officially listed as questionable, and is expected to share the workload with Knile Davis. It's essentially a "no one wins" situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donnie Avery, KC @MIA 005400000 ***
Avery flashed slightly with Dwayne Bowe out, then returned to his usual supporting role last week. Not much upside here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @MIA 003400000 ***
If there's a go-to wideout on this roster--and that's a relatively big "if"--it's Bowe, though targets in his first game back from suspension barely support the theory. Miami has allowed one wide receiver per opponent to have success against them; if KC is to follow that plan, odds are the wideout is Bowe.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @MIA 005601000 **
Kelce still has to share with Anthony Fasano, but he's working his way into a more prominent role in the KC passing game. The Dolphins allowed Gronk to score on limited snaps; no reason Kelce can't do the same.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @MIA 0022 ***
The Brazilian has made half of his NFL field goal attempts and remains mired near the bottom of the league in kicker scoring. Maybe he gets an uptick against a Miami D that allowed six field goal attempts last week, but best he do it on fantasy benches.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40
WR Lance Moore 4-60,1
TE Heath Miller 5-50,1
PK Shaun Suisham 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @CAR 0000023012 ***
Carolina hasn't allowed as much as a 20-point fantasy game to a visiting quarterback since Russell Wilson barely reached that mark with 320 and 1 in Week 1 of last season. They've held both Josh McCown and Matthew Stafford under that benchmark this season, and with one TD toss to his credit this year it's unlikely Big Ben cracks that mark as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT @CAR 5006500000 ***
The bad news is, Carolina hasn't allowed a RB rushing score or a back to rush for more than 54 yards this season. The good news is, Bell is contributing as a receiver as well and the Panthers have allowed a RB receiving score in each game this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT @CAR 006800000 ***
Even the mighty Megatron could muster only 83 yards without a score against the Panthers secondary, so despite Browns' hot start temper your expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Markus Wheaton, PIT @CAR 005400000 ***
Wheaton followed up his solid Week 1 showing with a down Week 2. The difficult matchup dictates Week 3 to be more like the latter than the former, which is bad fantasy news.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Lance Moore, PIT @CAR 002200000 ***
This offense usually feeds just two receivers, and against Carolina it will be lucky to provide one fantasy helper. Moore is too far down the depth chart to be banked on for production here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Heath Miller, PIT @CAR 004300000 ***
Heath has yet to produce a fantasy helper this season, and the stout Carolina defense isn't likely to change that fate.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shaun Suisham, PIT @CAR 2211 ***
The usually reliable Suisham faces a Carolina defense that has yet to allow a field goal this season. On the bright side, this is bound to be a low-scoring affair which tends to mean fewer TDs and more field goals.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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