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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 240,1
RB C.J. Spiller 30 5-30

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @OAK 20000025010 ***
Smith still hasn't thrown an INT all year. Oakland doesn't have a pick and has given up seven TD passes. QBs have averaged 240 yards passing. This is a negative-skewing matchup for Smith, who went for just 28.6 fantasy points in two combined games last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @OAK 6014400000 ***
The Raiders have yielded a bunch of yards (116 rushing, 63.8 receiving) to RBs, with the combined total of 179.8 rating as the 10th-highest figure. Rushing touchdowns have been hard to come by as one in 71.5 totes have crossed the stripe. Hunt shoudln't have much of a problem doing work through the air. The Raiders have given up the fourth-most points in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @OAK 005700000 ***
Hill is good to go this week and faces a Raiders team giving up the eighth-fewest points in PPR and ninth-lowest per-game figure in non-. This is a bottom-10 matchup in receptions, yardage and TDs. Hill went for a 6-66-1 line in Week 14. His first meeting isn't worth noting because of his limited role in the offense at the time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC @OAK 003400000 *
Wilson sat out last week with a knee injury and is questionable for Thursday's game. Avoid him in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @OAK 005701000 ***
Kelce went for a 3-32-0 line last year in the first meeting and a 5-101-0 showing the follow-up against Oakland. The Raiders have given up the 16th-most fantasy points per game.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC @OAK 3322 ***
The Raiders have given up 14 field goal attempts, which is tied for the most in football. Only 11 were good, though, suppressing this to rank No. 6. All 11 XPAs connected.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT CIN 0000025011 ***
A rushing score against Cincy makes this a bottom-12 opponent. Remove it and we're looking at fantasy's ninth-toughest enemy. Overall, this is a harsh matchup for Big Ben. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-fewest in yards per game, TD efficiency and points per play. Roethlisberger went for 26.4 fantasy points in Week 2 last season but then posted 17.8 in encore.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT CIN 10017600000 ***
Bell played vs. Cincy only once last year, going for 18.1 points in PPR scoring. The Bengals have granted RBs the most receptions on a per-game average with 8.3, though none of those 33 balls went into the end zone. This D rates as the third-toughest against rushing yards and sixth-hardest in giving up ground TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT CIN 0071001000 ***
Cincinnati held AB to 4-39-0 and 3-58-0 in two meetings last year. In 2015, he went for 6-47-1, 7-87-0 and 7-119-0 in three contests. All told, Cincy does a pretty good job of keeping him in check. This year could be different, since the position has scored once every 11.7 snares in the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT CIN 004400000 ***
The rookie has out-snapped Martavis Bryant four straight games. He'll get a taste of the Bengals' formidable secondary, however. It's the sixth-toughest, in fact.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT CIN 003300000 ***
Allowing only 35 receptions to receivers in the past four games ranks as the fourth-lowest per-game figure, but giving up three TDs along the way is the 11th-highest frequency. Playing with limited snaps, Bryant is a hard sell in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jesse James, PIT CIN 003200000 ***
Cincinnati ranks as fantasy's sixth-hardest matchup in PPR and eighth in standard, yielding a single TD in the last 18 receptions.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chris Boswell, PIT CIN 3322 ***
Only six teams have been tougher on kickers. The little bit of work against them has coming via 2.0 FGAs and 1.5 XPAs against, on average.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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