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David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: KC 3, PIT 24 (Line: PIT by 13)

Players Updated: Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall

Players to Watch: KC Quarterback, Dwayne Bowe, Isaac Redman

The 1-7 Chiefs are on a five game losing streak with no end in sight. The 5-3 Steelers are on a three game winning streak and are 3-0 at home. None of these trends are going to change this week.This is the Monday night game. And yeah - "wow".

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT -----
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ PIT Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 240,1
RB Jamaal Charles 50 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 2-30
WR Dwayne Bowe 3-40
TE Anthony Fasano 2-10,1

Pregame Notes: TImes are tough in Kansas City and not only are they apparently in a death spiral, but apparently they are going to take all the fantasy value down with them, This team has not scored more than one touchdown per game for the last month. There are still a few opportunities for a decent score later in the season but this week is the worst match-up left to face and they'll do that not sure what they are going to do for quarterback.

Matt Cassel is just done as far as the Chiefs are concerned and in fairness throwing 11 interceptions and losing seven fumbles will send anyone to the bench. But Cassel is the only way that Dwayne Bowe produced decent yardage or scores. Brady Quinn only threw for 180 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay in his only game. Quinn was knocked out of the Chargers game with a concussion and Cassel filled in with 181 yards but no scores. Almost all of his passes went to Bowe who ended with eight receptions for 79 yards.

The Chiefs may opt for Ricky Stanzi to play this week if Quinn is still out because of his concussion. That'll be even more risk and unknowns with an offense that is already bad.

Bowe caught a a season low three passes in Oakland when Quinn played. It is important to get Bowe involved because no one else is of any consequence in the passing scheme. The offense under OC Brian Daboll has been horrific so far with no signs of improvement. No wideout has a touchdown this year and no wideout ever gets more than about three catches for 50 yards. The tight ends are no better. Tony Moeaki caught four passes for 57 yards in week eight but then no catches against the Chargers.

Jamaal Charles was knocked out of the game in San Diego but passed all his concussion tests while still there and says he could have returned. Although Charles is clearly the best weapon on the entire offense, Daboll wants to platoon him. Peyton Hillis rushed seven times for 14 yards and had one catch. Shaun Draughn only had one carry which was the short touchdown run and he caught two passes. Dexter McCluster ran four times for 17 yards and caught two passes. Charles ran for 39 yards on 12 runs and caught three passes. Gone are the days that Charles gets 25 touches and racks up a monster game apparently. His two big games this year came when Hillis was injured.

Possible change at quarterback means that Bowe is still a risk to use and the matchup is not a good one anyway. The Chiefs are already driving the fantasy value of Charles and Bowe down and this game is not going to do anything to turn that around. Tough place to start any Chiefs players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 30 1 32 30 19 25
Preventing Fantasy Points PIT 3 2 4 12 9 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC NE 30000022011 ***
Tannehill, Cassel, Carr... Smith may be the best quarterback the Patriots have seen thus far. Minimal fantasy upside, but upside nonetheless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC NE 9013200000 ***
Charles has done nothing thus far to live up to his first-round status, and there's no guarantee he's fully healthy here. Moreover, after being gutted by the Dolphins in Week 1 the Patriots have been much better against the run. And, of course, Knile Davis lurks. Leap of faith to bank on big numbers from Charles here, but his upside demands you at least plug him into the lineup.
Update: Charles practiced on a limited basis Thursday and Friday, but who knows what share of the backfield workload he'll return to if he returns on Monday night. The MNF aspect makes him an even trickier fantasy play this week unless you're also holding Knile Davis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC NE 300000000 ***
Update: Jamaal Charles has practiced on a limited basis thus far this week, but his status for Monday night remains unclear. Hopefully if you have Charles you also have Davis and can plug in the appropriate one based on pregame news Monday night.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donnie Avery, KC NE 005600000 ***
Avery put up big numbers without Dwayne Bowe around; since then he hasn't made it out of the teens. No reason to think this matchup changes anything for him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC NE 003400000 ***
Only one Chiefs WR has topped 40 yards this year; only one WR has topped 56 yards against the Pats. If you have to back a KC wideout Bowe's your guy, but... you don't have to, you know.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC NE 004501000 ***
Kelce is more of a WR2 than anything on the KC roster; heck, if he weren't sharing looks with Anthony Fasano he'd be more of a WR1 than Dwayne Bowe. He's been a solid contributor with upside; nothing wrong with that at the tight end spot, especially in a six-team bye week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NE 2122 ***
Unless your league has a Brazilian multiplier, Santos' weekly four or five points won't help your fantasy squad.

Pittsburgh Steelers
Homefield: Heinz Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DEN 19-31 10 KC -----
2 NYJ 27-10 11 BAL -----
3 @OAK 31-34 12 @CLE -----
4 BYE ----- 13 @BAL -----
5 PHI 16-14 14 SD -----
6 @TEN 23-26 15 @DAL -----
7 @CIN 24-17 16 CIN -----
8 WAS 27-12 17 CLE -----
9 @NYG 24-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PIT vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ben Roethlisberger 230,2
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 3-40
WR Lance Moore 4-60,1
TE Heath Miller 5-50,1
PK Shaun Suisham 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice three game winning streak has the Steelers within one game of Baltimore in the AFC North and after facing the Chiefs, they will host the Ravens in their first meeting this year. Even with the missing players by the Ravens, there will be no taking them lightly because there is a chance that the Steelers could actually run the board now that the tougher half of the season is over. For this week, the temptation to look past the Chiefs is almost certain because they know they can get away with it.

Ben Roethlisberger threw at least one touchdown in every game this year and currently stands at 16 scores against only four interceptions. He's more likely to throw two or more scores than just the one and this week goes against a defense that has given up 18 touchdowns to quarterbacks already and all but the Ravens scored at least twice via a pass. This could be a good game if Big Ben takes advantage of it.

Last week Isaac Redman blew up with 147 yards on 26 runs with one score but that's more a function of a rare instance of him being the primary back with only Baron Batch to share with. Jonathan Dwyer has been out with a quad injury and Rashard Mendenhall has a bad Achilles. This is a committee backfield and the sharing will be back as soon as either or both other runners return. I will assume that Redman gets the call alone again this week and update as the health status of Mendenhall and/or Dwyer is better known. With an easy game this week and then a critical game next week, the Steelers may elect to let the other two heal up again this week.

Antonio Brown injured his ankle in the Giants game. First it was a high ankle sprain, then it wasn't and at last report appears to be a "sorta high ankle sprain". Again - this is an easy game and then the schedule goes against divisional rivals so the Steelers may elect to let Brown heal up this week. Emmanuel Sanders will take his place if needed. I will project for Brown out and adjust later if he is able to play.

Heath Miller should be in for a good showing here since three of the last four road opponents for the Chiefs scored with their tight end. Miller is highly consistent around 50 yards per week and scores in most. Particularly if there are other players out injured this week, Miller will be relied on.


RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PIT 9 12 11 7 7 30
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 24 10 5 28 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT TB 0000024020 ***
While Big Ben's numbers haven't been overly fantasy friendly thus far, he should enjoy this matchup with a Bucs D that has held only Austin Davis in check thus far this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Le'Veon Bell, PIT TB 9014300000 ***
Bell has topped 100 combo yards in all three games and should extend that run against an undermanned Tampa Bay defense that hasn't seen a back of his caliber yet this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PIT TB 201000000 **
Unlikely that Blount is able to churn out another 100-yard game like he did last week against Carolina. However, after seeing two different Falcons backs score on the Bucs last week it wouldn't be at all surprising if he was able to find the end zone while carrying out his goal line and change-of-pace duties.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Antonio Brown, PIT TB 0071001000 ****
The Bucs couldn't stop Kelvin Benjamin or Julio Jones; unlikely they'll find a way to keep Brown from his appointed rounds.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Brown, PIT TB 002301000 ***
Brown remains a bit player in this offense, with no compelling trends or evidence to suggest he warrants consideration over the Steelers' passing game mainstays.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Markus Wheaton, PIT TB 005600000 ***
It's not an overly compelling matchup for secondary receivers, though Wheaton is seeing more targets than other WR2s the Bucs have faced so he may be able to turn those looks into production.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Heath Miller, PIT TB 004400000 ***
If you're into 50 yards, Miller's your guy. If you want more from your fantasy tight end, best look elsewhere.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shaun Suisham, PIT TB 1144 ****
Multiple field goals in every game this season make Suisham a fantasy regular; doesn't hurt that the Bucs just gave up 56 points, either.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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