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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYG 30, CIN 24 (Line: NYG by 4)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, any non-Green CIN receiver

The 6-3 Giants come off their loss to the Steelers and hit the road where they are only 2-2. The 3-5 Bengals are on a four game losing streak and are just 1-3 at home. Both teams are scoring less than they did to open the season but the Bengals offense is starting to become nothing more than A.J. Green.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 270,2
RB Shane Vereen 40,1
WR Brandon Marshall 5-70

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Steelers made the Giants suddenly look very old and average. But the Giants still maintain a three game lead in the NFC East thanks to every team there losing this week. After this game will be the bye and a chance to rest and recuperate before the stretch run to the playoffs. As ordinary as the Giants looked, they are still huge favorites to walk away with the division.

Eli Manning's been off his game for two weeks. He threw for under 200 yards and no scores against both the Steelers and Cowboys. He has not tossed a multiple touchdown game since back in week five. Manning insists he is not in a slump and that his lackluster games have been more a credit to the opponents. Hakeem Nicks said that the defenses are adjusting well to the Giant's passing offense now. With three of the last four games producing under 200 passing yards, Nicks must have some element of truth in his statement.

Ahmad Bradshaw has not been too productive for two weeks but faced very good defenses. Oddly his role as a receiver has completely vanished and he has no catches in the last two games. Only two receptions over the last four games and not one pass against the Steelers. Andre Brown scored in the last three games and has become the goal line guy but he is limited to about five touches per game and has just those touchdowns and minimal yardage. Brown injured his shoulder last week but claims he is fine.

Martellus Bennett can be stuck back on the shelf. He's only catching for about 30 or 40 yards per game and has not scored in the last six games. He's devolved back into being mostly a blocker and is apparently playing through a lower leg injury as he was seen after the game walking as if in pain.

Nicks is likely disappointed in the offense since he has not scored since week two and hasn't gained more than 53 yards in any game since. He's just a poor risk currently and comes off a game with just ten yards on one catch versus the Steelers. Victor Cruz fares slightly better but his high scoring ways have also ended and left him very ordinary for the last two games. This week is a chance to post some points and turn the boat around before going on their bye. The Bengals defense has been rather accommodating in recent weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 19 13 6 21 1 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 20 26 11 27 22 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @ARI 0000020011 ***
Sans two rushing TDs by quarterbacks, this is the fifth-worst matchup of the week. Quarterbacks have averaged just 193 yards (30th) since Week 10. Manning is coming off of a monster performance that should be viewed as an aberration. One of every 16 passes faced by the Cardinals has gone for a TD, which ranks 22nd.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wayne Gallman, NYG @ARI 4006400000 ***
Gallman has been explosive in his limited work the last two games, logging 4.9 yards per carry on his 20 totes. He also has added 80 receiving yards on 13 grabs. The rook hasn't scored in limited action since Week 4. Arizona boasts the third-best defense of limiting rushing yardage and 10th-strongest at stopping overall yardage gains. The matchup is merely average for everything else.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG @ARI 300000000 ***
Darkwa's stat line of nine carries for seven yards and a touchdown last week -- while amusing -- won't cut it. He has taken a back seat in the rotation with Wayne Gallman, whose versatility offers far more to the offense and fantasy gamers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shane Vereen, NYG @ARI 1003200000 ***
Averaging only three grabs a game since Week 10, without a touchdown, there is no place for Vereen in a conventional lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @ARI 004400000 ***
Shepard was nothing short of impressive last weekend and now faces the fourth-best defense of his position. The Cardinals have smothered receivers across the board in the past five weeks, giving up only 108.2 yards (31st) on 10 catches (26th) per game. WRs have scored three times over those five contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roger Lewis, NYG @ARI 003300000 ***
Arizona has dominated receivers and shouldn't have any trouble holding the great Roger Lewis in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Evan Engram, NYG @ARI 005601000 ***
Just one of the last 17 catches by tight ends has scored on Arizona, and this matchup is among the five worst in both scoring formats. Engram's projection is optimistic, but he has the track record and athleticism to make something happen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Aldrick Rosas, NYG @ARI 2211 ***
Arizona is a neutral matchup against the position. One field goal and another extra point attempt missed, while only 40.9 percent of all kicks against the Cards were worth three points.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 2-20

Pregame Notes: A hot 3-1 start to the season has significantly cooled and the lack of any credible rushing attack or secondary receiver has limited the offense which in turns hurts the defense. The Bengals allow 24 points or more to any above average offense and cannot catchup once the score gets away from them. That may improve with upcoming games against the AFC West but then takes a nose-dive for the final month.

Andy Dalton scores in every game but only once in three of the last four. He's throwing for healthy yardage in all games not involving the Steelers but just set the franchise record with an interception in eight straight games. Usually just the one, but so far always at least the one. He comes off the Broncos matchup where the threw for 299 yards.

The rushing effort here is among the worst in the NFL and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has fans pining for the scoreless Benson days. BGE did manage one score last week for only the third time this year but he has no role in the passing game and while he always gets 16+ carries, he never gains more than 70 yards for the past month. He commands almost no respect from the defense that can focus more on Dalton as a passer. BGE was a bad idea from the start and a prime example of why a good offensive system is plug-n-play and their players do not translate in other offensive systems because they do not have that much talent.

Jermaine Gresham comes off a 108 yard effort in the Broncos game and he produces around 60 yards in most matchups. He's no difference maker though and scored only twice this year.

A.J. Green is tied for the lead with eight receiving touchdowns and he's scored in every game since the season opener. His yardage is usually high as well though versus the Steelers he only had one catch for eight yards - and a touchdown. Green is the heart and soul of the offense and just drew the respect of Champ Bailey who let him catch seven passes for 99 yards - and a touchdown. Andrew Hawkins never gains more than about 40 yards or so in a game and Mohamed Sanu is starting to get some playing time but he too stops at around 30 yards per week. This is all about Green and a dash of Gresham. Not even the running backs are used as receivers.

The rushing effort will falter here as it always does anyway but Dalton should see some success. The Giants allowed 13 passing scores this year and since the Bengals cannot run much at all, Dalton will need to throw another 40+ passes against a below average secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 28 3 15 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 22 8 26 26 17 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN DET 0000021011 **
Detroit has averaged a pick per game and has allowed a touchdown pass every 14.9 completions (20th). This is the No. 7 matchup to exploit for yardage (265.8). All told, the struggling Dalton has fantasy's fifth-best matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joe Mixon, CIN DET 6011100000 *
Mixon should be ready this week after fully going in Wednesday's session, which is usually a telltale sign of an imminent return. Detroit is among the four-best matchups of the week in both scoring formats. Running backs have scored once every 20 carries, which is No. 6, and this is a great matchup for versatile RBs.

Update: Mixon practiced in full all week and will play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN DET 2003300000 ***
Bernard should take a backseat as Joe Mixon is poised to return after fully practicing Wednesday. The projections will be updated accordingly later in the week. The Lions present the fourth-best PPR matchup and second-easiest in standard.

Update: Mixon practiced in full all week and will play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN DET 005701000 ***
Detroit has been content to give up top-12 weekly figures in receptions (13) and yardage (167), but this defense has clamped down against permitting scores. None of the 65 opportunities over the last five months scored. Only Baltimore has been stronger. Look for Green to draw Pro Bowl corner Darius Slay.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN DET 003400000 ***
The veteran possession man in this offense has two TDs in his last six games. Sanu has been targeted at least five times in each of those contests, and Detroit offers a promising matchup for his style of play. The Lions have permitted receivers to average 13 receptions (11th) for 167 yards (7th) a game. Zero of those 65 snares found the end zone, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Kroft, CIN DET 003400000 ***
Detroit has been among the best tight end matchups to exploit for much of the season. In the past five games, TEs have scored once, on average, and this is a top-12 matchup for receptions and yards per game. It was Week 12 the last time he scored, and Kroft has taken advantage of good matchups, so there is hope he outplays his projection.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, CIN DET 2222 ***
Kickers have found great success with extra points against the Lions, but Cincinnati has struggled putting the ball into the end zone. This is only the 22nd-best matchup for three-point opportunities.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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