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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYG 30, CIN 24 (Line: NYG by 4)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, any non-Green CIN receiver

The 6-3 Giants come off their loss to the Steelers and hit the road where they are only 2-2. The 3-5 Bengals are on a four game losing streak and are just 1-3 at home. Both teams are scoring less than they did to open the season but the Bengals offense is starting to become nothing more than A.J. Green.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 270,2
RB Rashad Jennings 70,1 6-40
RB Shane Vereen 40,1
WR Victor Cruz 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Steelers made the Giants suddenly look very old and average. But the Giants still maintain a three game lead in the NFC East thanks to every team there losing this week. After this game will be the bye and a chance to rest and recuperate before the stretch run to the playoffs. As ordinary as the Giants looked, they are still huge favorites to walk away with the division.

Eli Manning's been off his game for two weeks. He threw for under 200 yards and no scores against both the Steelers and Cowboys. He has not tossed a multiple touchdown game since back in week five. Manning insists he is not in a slump and that his lackluster games have been more a credit to the opponents. Hakeem Nicks said that the defenses are adjusting well to the Giant's passing offense now. With three of the last four games producing under 200 passing yards, Nicks must have some element of truth in his statement.

Ahmad Bradshaw has not been too productive for two weeks but faced very good defenses. Oddly his role as a receiver has completely vanished and he has no catches in the last two games. Only two receptions over the last four games and not one pass against the Steelers. Andre Brown scored in the last three games and has become the goal line guy but he is limited to about five touches per game and has just those touchdowns and minimal yardage. Brown injured his shoulder last week but claims he is fine.

Martellus Bennett can be stuck back on the shelf. He's only catching for about 30 or 40 yards per game and has not scored in the last six games. He's devolved back into being mostly a blocker and is apparently playing through a lower leg injury as he was seen after the game walking as if in pain.

Nicks is likely disappointed in the offense since he has not scored since week two and hasn't gained more than 53 yards in any game since. He's just a poor risk currently and comes off a game with just ten yards on one catch versus the Steelers. Victor Cruz fares slightly better but his high scoring ways have also ended and left him very ordinary for the last two games. This week is a chance to post some points and turn the boat around before going on their bye. The Bengals defense has been rather accommodating in recent weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 19 13 6 21 1 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 20 26 11 27 22 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @MIN 0000023012 ***
You saw what this group did to Cam Newton, right? Woof. Overall, though, Minnesota is technically the last of the "plus" matchups. Give the Vikes more credit than the numbers suggest, and it is in their new home stadium. Eli is an extremely risky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG @MIN 4003200000 *
If Jennings plays, keep him parked. The Vikings are too difficult of a matchup for someone with two functional hands, let alone a back wearing a cast.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG @MIN 3001100000 **
Shane Vereen is out for the year, which leaves Darkwa and possibly Rashad Jennings (hand), if he can play with a cast, to shoulder the load. Maybe rookie Paul Perkins joins the fun. Play Darkwa only out of sheer desperation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @MIN 006701000 **
The Vikes have allowed one touchdown on 35 catches by wideouts. Beckham is a must-play, even with the tough matchup. He typically is immune to them anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @MIN 005500000 ***
Shepard played every snap but one on offense last week, and he's a WR3 play in PPR leagues. With all of the attention paid to OBJ, perhaps Shepard slides into the end zone this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG @MIN 004300000 ***
Cruz is a fringe flex play in PPR leagues. The Vikings have ceded a fair number of catches (35) but only one touchdown, ranking as the fifth hardest matchup for the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG @MIN 003200000 ***
While Donnell is not part of the game plan in a large enough way to make him a fantasy consideration, it never helps facing a defense like Minnesota's -- one that has prevented tight ends from scoring so far.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG @MIN 3311 ***
Three teams are tougher against kickers. Minnesota's stifling defense has held opponents to just four total touchdowns and only three field goal kicks, with only two splitting the goalposts.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon LaFell 2-20
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A hot 3-1 start to the season has significantly cooled and the lack of any credible rushing attack or secondary receiver has limited the offense which in turns hurts the defense. The Bengals allow 24 points or more to any above average offense and cannot catchup once the score gets away from them. That may improve with upcoming games against the AFC West but then takes a nose-dive for the final month.

Andy Dalton scores in every game but only once in three of the last four. He's throwing for healthy yardage in all games not involving the Steelers but just set the franchise record with an interception in eight straight games. Usually just the one, but so far always at least the one. He comes off the Broncos matchup where the threw for 299 yards.

The rushing effort here is among the worst in the NFL and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has fans pining for the scoreless Benson days. BGE did manage one score last week for only the third time this year but he has no role in the passing game and while he always gets 16+ carries, he never gains more than 70 yards for the past month. He commands almost no respect from the defense that can focus more on Dalton as a passer. BGE was a bad idea from the start and a prime example of why a good offensive system is plug-n-play and their players do not translate in other offensive systems because they do not have that much talent.

Jermaine Gresham comes off a 108 yard effort in the Broncos game and he produces around 60 yards in most matchups. He's no difference maker though and scored only twice this year.

A.J. Green is tied for the lead with eight receiving touchdowns and he's scored in every game since the season opener. His yardage is usually high as well though versus the Steelers he only had one catch for eight yards - and a touchdown. Green is the heart and soul of the offense and just drew the respect of Champ Bailey who let him catch seven passes for 99 yards - and a touchdown. Andrew Hawkins never gains more than about 40 yards or so in a game and Mohamed Sanu is starting to get some playing time but he too stops at around 30 yards per week. This is all about Green and a dash of Gresham. Not even the running backs are used as receivers.

The rushing effort will falter here as it always does anyway but Dalton should see some success. The Giants allowed 13 passing scores this year and since the Bengals cannot run much at all, Dalton will need to throw another 40+ passes against a below average secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 28 3 15 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 22 8 26 26 17 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN MIA 20000026020 ***
Quarterbacks have been efficient against Miami, which is what you can expect out of Dalton. Quarterbacks have thrown only one interception to four touchdown passes. Dalton is a viable bye-week replacement for Aaron Rodgers owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN MIA 8011100000 ***
Hill is touchdown-reliant, as you probably know by know ... Miami has yielded only one rushing touchdown on 87 attempts, which is the highest ratio of any team. Play Hill as a risky flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN MIA 3005300000 ***
On the Saints have allowed more rushing yards than Miami, but the Dolphins have not been broken by backs. The position has scored only one offensive touchdown, and Miami has held receiving backs to a mere 68 yards. Bernard is on the upswing but may have a regression game ahead. Play him and bear this in mind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN MIA 0091202000 ***
Green could go off against the Miami defense. This unit has permitted the sixth most fantasy points per game to the position, which stems from a 47-575-3 line in three games. Start him with confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN MIA 005600000 ***
Boyd's playing time fell from 79 percent in Week 2 to 36 percent last weekend. Watch how this one plays out with him on your bench. The Dolphins offer a good matchup, so it's a shame he isn't being targeted enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN MIA 004500000 ***
LaFell benefits from the attention drawn by A.J. Green, and this matchup is a prime place to deploy him in DFS action or as a flex in regular PPR leagues. Miami has allowed the third most receptions to WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE C.J. Uzomah, CIN MIA 003300000 ***
Avoid any Bengals tight end not named Tyler Eifert (who isn't expected to play, by the way). Miami has allowed only one TE TD in three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN MIA 1133 ***
Miami's strong ranking against kickers is somewhat lucky. They have allowed the second most field goal attempts but only six of the 10 have split the uprights. Nugent is a low-end PK1 choice but comes with some risk if Cincinnati's offense doesn't have a problem scoring touchdowns.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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