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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYG 30, CIN 24 (Line: NYG by 4)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, any non-Green CIN receiver

The 6-3 Giants come off their loss to the Steelers and hit the road where they are only 2-2. The 3-5 Bengals are on a four game losing streak and are just 1-3 at home. Both teams are scoring less than they did to open the season but the Bengals offense is starting to become nothing more than A.J. Green.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 270,2
RB Peyton Hillis 20
RB Rashad Jennings 70,1 6-40
WR Victor Cruz 5-80,1
WR Kevin Ogletree 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Steelers made the Giants suddenly look very old and average. But the Giants still maintain a three game lead in the NFC East thanks to every team there losing this week. After this game will be the bye and a chance to rest and recuperate before the stretch run to the playoffs. As ordinary as the Giants looked, they are still huge favorites to walk away with the division.

Eli Manning's been off his game for two weeks. He threw for under 200 yards and no scores against both the Steelers and Cowboys. He has not tossed a multiple touchdown game since back in week five. Manning insists he is not in a slump and that his lackluster games have been more a credit to the opponents. Hakeem Nicks said that the defenses are adjusting well to the Giant's passing offense now. With three of the last four games producing under 200 passing yards, Nicks must have some element of truth in his statement.

Ahmad Bradshaw has not been too productive for two weeks but faced very good defenses. Oddly his role as a receiver has completely vanished and he has no catches in the last two games. Only two receptions over the last four games and not one pass against the Steelers. Andre Brown scored in the last three games and has become the goal line guy but he is limited to about five touches per game and has just those touchdowns and minimal yardage. Brown injured his shoulder last week but claims he is fine.

Martellus Bennett can be stuck back on the shelf. He's only catching for about 30 or 40 yards per game and has not scored in the last six games. He's devolved back into being mostly a blocker and is apparently playing through a lower leg injury as he was seen after the game walking as if in pain.

Nicks is likely disappointed in the offense since he has not scored since week two and hasn't gained more than 53 yards in any game since. He's just a poor risk currently and comes off a game with just ten yards on one catch versus the Steelers. Victor Cruz fares slightly better but his high scoring ways have also ended and left him very ordinary for the last two games. This week is a chance to post some points and turn the boat around before going on their bye. The Bengals defense has been rather accommodating in recent weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 19 13 6 21 1 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 20 26 11 27 22 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @STL 0000025011 ***
It's not a particularly favorable matchup for Eli, as the Rams haven't allowed a touchdown pass in three weeks and haven't served up multiple scoring strikes to a quarterback since Week 7. But with Rashad Jennings hobbled and the Rams stiff against the run, what other options do the Giants have?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Williams, NYG @STL 4003100000 **
Rashad Jennings pulled himself early from last week's matchup, so this week expect all Andre all the time. However, with the Rams sporting a solid run defense there may simply be nowhere for Williams to go.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham, NYG @STL 007901000 **
30 targets, 23 catches, 273 yards, four touchdowns. Those are totals from Beckham's last four games so, yeah, he's hot. He's also Eli Manning's go-to guy and as such a solid fantasy play, even in a matchup that looks to be a bit on the tough side.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG @STL 005600000 ***
Randle has battled some injury issues which have pushed him to the side in the Giants' WR depth conversation, but he's a big target that plays nicely opposite the smaller, speedier Odell Beckham Jr.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Preston Parker, NYG @STL 002300000 ***
Parker hopes to carve out some fantasy value at the bottom of the food chain, but he's too inconsistently productive to warrant a fantasy play here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG @STL 003300000 ***
Not a particularly favorable matchup for Donnell, as the Rams haven't allowed a Te TD since Week 7. And Donnell has been sharing looks with Daniel Fells and generally avoiding fantasy contributions, making him even less worthy of a fantasy start here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG @STL 2211 ***
Like clockwork, Brown returned to his usual one field goal last week on the heels of his five-trey outburst against the Rams. Which trend you gonna believe, his five-FG game or the six one- or zero-FG games that preceded it (and the one-field goal game that followed it)?

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon Tate 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A hot 3-1 start to the season has significantly cooled and the lack of any credible rushing attack or secondary receiver has limited the offense which in turns hurts the defense. The Bengals allow 24 points or more to any above average offense and cannot catchup once the score gets away from them. That may improve with upcoming games against the AFC West but then takes a nose-dive for the final month.

Andy Dalton scores in every game but only once in three of the last four. He's throwing for healthy yardage in all games not involving the Steelers but just set the franchise record with an interception in eight straight games. Usually just the one, but so far always at least the one. He comes off the Broncos matchup where the threw for 299 yards.

The rushing effort here is among the worst in the NFL and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has fans pining for the scoreless Benson days. BGE did manage one score last week for only the third time this year but he has no role in the passing game and while he always gets 16+ carries, he never gains more than 70 yards for the past month. He commands almost no respect from the defense that can focus more on Dalton as a passer. BGE was a bad idea from the start and a prime example of why a good offensive system is plug-n-play and their players do not translate in other offensive systems because they do not have that much talent.

Jermaine Gresham comes off a 108 yard effort in the Broncos game and he produces around 60 yards in most matchups. He's no difference maker though and scored only twice this year.

A.J. Green is tied for the lead with eight receiving touchdowns and he's scored in every game since the season opener. His yardage is usually high as well though versus the Steelers he only had one catch for eight yards - and a touchdown. Green is the heart and soul of the offense and just drew the respect of Champ Bailey who let him catch seven passes for 99 yards - and a touchdown. Andrew Hawkins never gains more than about 40 yards or so in a game and Mohamed Sanu is starting to get some playing time but he too stops at around 30 yards per week. This is all about Green and a dash of Gresham. Not even the running backs are used as receivers.

The rushing effort will falter here as it always does anyway but Dalton should see some success. The Giants allowed 13 passing scores this year and since the Bengals cannot run much at all, Dalton will need to throw another 40+ passes against a below average secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 28 3 15 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 22 8 26 26 17 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN DEN 0000023021 ***
No guarantee that attempting to keep up with Peyton Manning translates into helpful fantasy stats; didn't work for Derek Carr, Shaun Hill, Alex Smith or Philip Rivers over the past six weeks. Dalton's been too unreliable a fantasy contributor of late to not be lumped in with that mediocre grouping, especially given his penchant for coming up small in big games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN DEN 5004200000 ***
Tre Mason is the only back to find fantasy success against the Broncos. Not that the Bengals won't try with Hill, but his big games have come against bottom-feeding run defenses (New Orleans, Cleveland, and Jacksonville all rank in the top 10 in fantasy points allowed to RBs). Dial your expectations back accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN DEN 3003200000 ***
It's official: Gio's a complementary back. And with feature backs having enough trouble carving out fantasy value against the Broncos, no reason to reach for a secondary guy for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN DEN 005601000 **
It's not impossible for Green to carve out fantasy value against the Broncos, especially given the volume of targets he's bound to see. But it won't be easy, so keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN DEN 003300000 ***
Complementary targets have found the end zone against Denver while primary targets posted bigger yardage--as recently as Week 14, when Sammy Watkins did the heavy lifting with 127 yards while Chris Hogan found the end zone. However, multiple receivers have posted fantasy helpers on the Broncos only four times in 14 games, so Sanu's chances of warranting a spot in your lineup are slim.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN DEN 004301000 ****
Update: Looks like Gresham will play this week, though he's been little if any fantasy help this season and doesn't look like he'll change that fact this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN DEN 1122 ***
Since serving up 16 points to Greg Zuerlein and the Rams in Week 11 the Broncos have allowed a total of 17 kicker points in four games. The Nuge broke a two-game field goal drought with three against the Browns last week, but the overriding trend here is opposing kickers falling short against Denver. Plan accordingly.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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