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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYG 30, CIN 24 (Line: NYG by 4)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, any non-Green CIN receiver

The 6-3 Giants come off their loss to the Steelers and hit the road where they are only 2-2. The 3-5 Bengals are on a four game losing streak and are just 1-3 at home. Both teams are scoring less than they did to open the season but the Bengals offense is starting to become nothing more than A.J. Green.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 270,2
RB Peyton Hillis 20
RB Rashad Jennings 70,1 6-40
WR Victor Cruz 5-80,1
WR Kevin Ogletree 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Steelers made the Giants suddenly look very old and average. But the Giants still maintain a three game lead in the NFC East thanks to every team there losing this week. After this game will be the bye and a chance to rest and recuperate before the stretch run to the playoffs. As ordinary as the Giants looked, they are still huge favorites to walk away with the division.

Eli Manning's been off his game for two weeks. He threw for under 200 yards and no scores against both the Steelers and Cowboys. He has not tossed a multiple touchdown game since back in week five. Manning insists he is not in a slump and that his lackluster games have been more a credit to the opponents. Hakeem Nicks said that the defenses are adjusting well to the Giant's passing offense now. With three of the last four games producing under 200 passing yards, Nicks must have some element of truth in his statement.

Ahmad Bradshaw has not been too productive for two weeks but faced very good defenses. Oddly his role as a receiver has completely vanished and he has no catches in the last two games. Only two receptions over the last four games and not one pass against the Steelers. Andre Brown scored in the last three games and has become the goal line guy but he is limited to about five touches per game and has just those touchdowns and minimal yardage. Brown injured his shoulder last week but claims he is fine.

Martellus Bennett can be stuck back on the shelf. He's only catching for about 30 or 40 yards per game and has not scored in the last six games. He's devolved back into being mostly a blocker and is apparently playing through a lower leg injury as he was seen after the game walking as if in pain.

Nicks is likely disappointed in the offense since he has not scored since week two and hasn't gained more than 53 yards in any game since. He's just a poor risk currently and comes off a game with just ten yards on one catch versus the Steelers. Victor Cruz fares slightly better but his high scoring ways have also ended and left him very ordinary for the last two games. This week is a chance to post some points and turn the boat around before going on their bye. The Bengals defense has been rather accommodating in recent weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 19 13 6 21 1 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 20 26 11 27 22 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG DAL 0000027031 ***
Eli has multiple touchdowns in each of his past three meetings with the Cowboys, including 248 and 3 earlier this year. He's laid a couple of fantasy eggs against NFC West foes the past two weeks, but back within his division he's at least worthy of fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG DAL 6002100000 ***
In the three games since the Jennings-less Giants rushed for 80 yards against Dallas, the Cowboys have surrendered five RB TDs and an average of 138 combo yards to the RB position. Jennings used last week's 18-59 against the 49ers to shake off the rust; he's a solid bet for helpful fantasy numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham, NYG DAL 007901000 ****
Performance leaguers continue to enjoy Beckham, who hasn't scored since Week 7 but does have 357 yards in the past three games. He scored twice in that Week 7 matchup with the Cowboys, so one way or another--maybe both--Beckham will carve out fantasy value this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG DAL 006700000 ***
Randle remains a heavily targeted option in the Giants' passing game, and though he hasn't seen the end zone since Week 5 he's a solid PPR/performance league fantasy play. He was the Giants' top wideout the last time they met Dallas; maybe this time he can up his 6-74 into something even a little more fantasy helpful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Preston Parker, NYG DAL 002200000 ***
Parker's last five games--with one, two, one, seven, and one catch each--speak to his consistency or lack thereof. Given his position in the Giants' passing game pecking order it's a stretch for him to have even fringe fantasy value this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG DAL 007701000 ***
Only two teams have given up more fantasy points to the tight end position than the Cowboys, which makes this a sterling matchup for Donnell. Larry had 90 yards in the earlier meeting with Dallas but Daniel Fells stole his touchdown; since then Donnell has out-caught Fells 11-1 and outscored him 2-0, so this is clearly Donnell's gig.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG DAL 1133 ***
Brown hasn't had a multiple field goal game in a month, and the Giants' offense isn't doing enough for him to make up the difference via PATs.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 280,2
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon Tate 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A hot 3-1 start to the season has significantly cooled and the lack of any credible rushing attack or secondary receiver has limited the offense which in turns hurts the defense. The Bengals allow 24 points or more to any above average offense and cannot catchup once the score gets away from them. That may improve with upcoming games against the AFC West but then takes a nose-dive for the final month.

Andy Dalton scores in every game but only once in three of the last four. He's throwing for healthy yardage in all games not involving the Steelers but just set the franchise record with an interception in eight straight games. Usually just the one, but so far always at least the one. He comes off the Broncos matchup where the threw for 299 yards.

The rushing effort here is among the worst in the NFL and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has fans pining for the scoreless Benson days. BGE did manage one score last week for only the third time this year but he has no role in the passing game and while he always gets 16+ carries, he never gains more than 70 yards for the past month. He commands almost no respect from the defense that can focus more on Dalton as a passer. BGE was a bad idea from the start and a prime example of why a good offensive system is plug-n-play and their players do not translate in other offensive systems because they do not have that much talent.

Jermaine Gresham comes off a 108 yard effort in the Broncos game and he produces around 60 yards in most matchups. He's no difference maker though and scored only twice this year.

A.J. Green is tied for the lead with eight receiving touchdowns and he's scored in every game since the season opener. His yardage is usually high as well though versus the Steelers he only had one catch for eight yards - and a touchdown. Green is the heart and soul of the offense and just drew the respect of Champ Bailey who let him catch seven passes for 99 yards - and a touchdown. Andrew Hawkins never gains more than about 40 yards or so in a game and Mohamed Sanu is starting to get some playing time but he too stops at around 30 yards per week. This is all about Green and a dash of Gresham. Not even the running backs are used as receivers.

The rushing effort will falter here as it always does anyway but Dalton should see some success. The Giants allowed 13 passing scores this year and since the Bengals cannot run much at all, Dalton will need to throw another 40+ passes against a below average secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 28 3 15 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 22 8 26 26 17 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @HOU 0000023022 ***
Dalton bounced back from his choke-job against Cleveland with three TDs in New Orleans. A Houston defense that's allowed multiple passing scores in seven of eight and 250-plus yards in six straight should allow Dalton to squeeze out another fantasy helper this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN @HOU 5002200000 ***
Hill is more than capable of carrying the load himself if Giovani Bernard can't go again; even if Gio's back, Hill has carved out enough of a share of Cincy's backfield touches to warrant fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @HOU 4003200000 ****
You'd like to think Gio returns at full go here, but he'll likely have to split the workload as he eases himself back into the mix. Still, it's a favorable enough matchup that sharing touches or no Bernard is back in your starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @HOU 0061101000 ***
Green has scored twice in three games since returning to action; safe to say he's regained his every-week-starter card.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN @HOU 005601000 **
The Texans have allowed multiple receivers to either score and/or top 90 yards in three of four and five of the last seven, so even with AJ Green back in the mix Sanu warrants fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN @HOU 005400000 ***
The Bengals--and fantasy owners--rediscovered Gresham just in time to have him face one of the tougher tight end matchups on the board. Don't chase last week's two TDs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN @HOU 1122 ***
Nugent has been good not great; the Texans, on the other hand, have been stingy in allowing just one game with double-digit points over the past two months. You can probably do better, but at least with Nugent you're reasonably safe.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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