FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYG 30, CIN 24 (Line: NYG by 4)

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, any non-Green CIN receiver

The 6-3 Giants come off their loss to the Steelers and hit the road where they are only 2-2. The 3-5 Bengals are on a four game losing streak and are just 1-3 at home. Both teams are scoring less than they did to open the season but the Bengals offense is starting to become nothing more than A.J. Green.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN -----
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB -----
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 270,2
RB Peyton Hillis 20
RB Rashad Jennings 70,1 6-40
WR Victor Cruz 5-80,1
WR Mario Manningham 4-50
TE Kellen Davis 3-30

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Steelers made the Giants suddenly look very old and average. But the Giants still maintain a three game lead in the NFC East thanks to every team there losing this week. After this game will be the bye and a chance to rest and recuperate before the stretch run to the playoffs. As ordinary as the Giants looked, they are still huge favorites to walk away with the division.

Eli Manning's been off his game for two weeks. He threw for under 200 yards and no scores against both the Steelers and Cowboys. He has not tossed a multiple touchdown game since back in week five. Manning insists he is not in a slump and that his lackluster games have been more a credit to the opponents. Hakeem Nicks said that the defenses are adjusting well to the Giant's passing offense now. With three of the last four games producing under 200 passing yards, Nicks must have some element of truth in his statement.

Ahmad Bradshaw has not been too productive for two weeks but faced very good defenses. Oddly his role as a receiver has completely vanished and he has no catches in the last two games. Only two receptions over the last four games and not one pass against the Steelers. Andre Brown scored in the last three games and has become the goal line guy but he is limited to about five touches per game and has just those touchdowns and minimal yardage. Brown injured his shoulder last week but claims he is fine.

Martellus Bennett can be stuck back on the shelf. He's only catching for about 30 or 40 yards per game and has not scored in the last six games. He's devolved back into being mostly a blocker and is apparently playing through a lower leg injury as he was seen after the game walking as if in pain.

Nicks is likely disappointed in the offense since he has not scored since week two and hasn't gained more than 53 yards in any game since. He's just a poor risk currently and comes off a game with just ten yards on one catch versus the Steelers. Victor Cruz fares slightly better but his high scoring ways have also ended and left him very ordinary for the last two games. This week is a chance to post some points and turn the boat around before going on their bye. The Bengals defense has been rather accommodating in recent weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 19 13 6 21 1 2
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 20 26 11 27 22 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG WAS 0000022021 ***
Manning continues to dribble easy matchups down his leg, so no matter that only four teams have given up more passing scores than Washington; Manning's a risky fantasy play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG WAS 4005300000 ***
Jennings has been far and away the most productive back on the Raiders' roster; as a thanks for salvaging their ground game following yet another Darren McFadden injury, he got a kick-in-the-teeth score vultured by McFadden last week. No reason to think he'll do anything of note against a Denver defense that's motivated to lock down the top seed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerrel Jernigan, NYG WAS 005701000 ***
The Redskins have allowed only two WR TDs in the past month, none to the Giants in the earlier meeting. Between Eli Manning's foibles and the underachieving, injury-depleted Giants receiving corps, the frequently targeted Jernigan might be the best/only fantasy play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG WAS 00000000 ***
Randle continues to be frequently targeted, but with the Giants' passing game struggling mightily there just isn't enough here to bank on fantasy help. UPDATE: Randle did not practice Thursday and Friday and is listed as questionable. Not enough upside to offset the risk of using him in your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG WAS 1133 ***
Brown has been all-or-nothing this year: four double-digit games, yet he ranks 30th in kicker scoring. He managed six points against the Redskins a month ago, no reason to expect a significant uptick here.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG -----
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 280,2
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 80
WR A.J. Green 6-100,1
WR Brandon Tate 2-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: A hot 3-1 start to the season has significantly cooled and the lack of any credible rushing attack or secondary receiver has limited the offense which in turns hurts the defense. The Bengals allow 24 points or more to any above average offense and cannot catchup once the score gets away from them. That may improve with upcoming games against the AFC West but then takes a nose-dive for the final month.

Andy Dalton scores in every game but only once in three of the last four. He's throwing for healthy yardage in all games not involving the Steelers but just set the franchise record with an interception in eight straight games. Usually just the one, but so far always at least the one. He comes off the Broncos matchup where the threw for 299 yards.

The rushing effort here is among the worst in the NFL and BenJarvus Green-Ellis has fans pining for the scoreless Benson days. BGE did manage one score last week for only the third time this year but he has no role in the passing game and while he always gets 16+ carries, he never gains more than 70 yards for the past month. He commands almost no respect from the defense that can focus more on Dalton as a passer. BGE was a bad idea from the start and a prime example of why a good offensive system is plug-n-play and their players do not translate in other offensive systems because they do not have that much talent.

Jermaine Gresham comes off a 108 yard effort in the Broncos game and he produces around 60 yards in most matchups. He's no difference maker though and scored only twice this year.

A.J. Green is tied for the lead with eight receiving touchdowns and he's scored in every game since the season opener. His yardage is usually high as well though versus the Steelers he only had one catch for eight yards - and a touchdown. Green is the heart and soul of the offense and just drew the respect of Champ Bailey who let him catch seven passes for 99 yards - and a touchdown. Andrew Hawkins never gains more than about 40 yards or so in a game and Mohamed Sanu is starting to get some playing time but he too stops at around 30 yards per week. This is all about Green and a dash of Gresham. Not even the running backs are used as receivers.

The rushing effort will falter here as it always does anyway but Dalton should see some success. The Giants allowed 13 passing scores this year and since the Bengals cannot run much at all, Dalton will need to throw another 40+ passes against a below average secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 28 3 15 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 22 8 26 26 17 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN BAL 0000027020 ***
Dalton has multiple touchdown tosses in four straight home games and three straight overall, plus he took the Ravens for 274 & 2 in the earlier meeting between these clubs. Baltimore has held both Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady to single scoring strikes the past two weeks, however, so if Dalton is to help both your fantasy team to a title and his Bengals to the postseason he'll have to earn it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jason Campbell, CIN BAL 20000023010 ***
Campbell was knocked out of the earlier meeting with Pittsburgh after 124 yards, with Brandon Weeden finishing out the game for Cleveland. It'll be Campbell at least to start this time around, against a Steelers squad with a faint playoff heartbeat. Pittsburgh hasn't allowed more than 251 passing yards since Weeden and Campbell combined for 333 in that Week 12 game, plus Campbell has just one passing score in the past two games combined. In other words, not a whole lot of optimism for Campbell this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN BAL 4007401000 ***
Gio had 95 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the earlier meeting with Baltimore. His ability to create via the passing game as well as on the ground make him the safer fantasy play as he shares the workload with BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CIN BAL 300000000 ***
Baltimore has allowed five RB rushing scores in the past four games; since it takes a short-yardage plunge for BJGE to create fantasy value out of his job-share gig, that the Ravens have been dented of late is somewhat reassuring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN BAL 0061001000 ****
Green has scored or topped 90 yards in four straight, and he did both as part of his 8-151-1 showing in the earlier meeting with Baltimore. Recency, primacy... either way you slice it, Green's a great play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones, CIN BAL 005400000 ***
Jones and Mohamed Sanu have each scored in the past fortnight, but neither did anything in the earlier meeting with Baltimore--nor should either be banked on for fantasy help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN BAL 002400000 ***
Sanu and Marvin Jones have each scored in the past fortnight, but neither did anything in the earlier meeting with Baltimore--nor should either be banked on for fantasy help here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN BAL 3333 ****
The Nuge has but one double-digit game on the season, hasn't topped six points in a month, and mustered only five in the earlier meeting with Baltimore. If Cincy is to secure a playoff spot, they'll likely do so relying on something other than Nugent's leg.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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