FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 240,2
RB Matt Forte 50 5-30
WR Eric Decker 6-90,1
WR Brandon Marshall 5-70
TE Kellen Davis 3-30
PK Nick Folk 1 FG

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ BUF 10000023011 ***
The Bills have allowed the third lowest per-game yardage figure (207) over the past five games, and quarterbacks have averaged 19.0 points in standard fantasy scoring. Fitzpatrick is not worth relying on in traditional setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ BUF 7016500000 ***
Eight TDs allowed in the last five games to RBs ... yikes. Powell is a fine place to look for an RB2 in any type of scoring. The last time these teams met, Matt Forte plowed into the end zone on three occasions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ BUF 005701000 ***
Way back in Week 2, Enunwa caught a 6-92-0 line. Much has changed -- for the worse -- since then, but he is still capable of posting decent fantasy figures. The Bills have been stingy of late, giving up only nine catches to WRs a game since Week 11, but a league-worst score every 7.5 grabs allowed is enticing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ BUF 004400000 ***
Marshall caught six passes for 101 yards in Week 2's meeting, but he has been awfully quiet on the field lately. The veteran has an outside shot at a TD given how Buffalo has handed them away like Christmas presents.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ BUF 002300000 *
Many owners will be gun shy when it comes to trusting Anderson after last week's goose egg, and rightfully so. He was much better with Bryce Petty than he has been with Ryan Fitzpatrick, so keep away in Week 17.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ BUF 2222 ***
Buffalo is a solid matchup for Folk. The Bills have given up 9-for-10 on FGAs and 14-for-14 on XPAs in the last five weeks.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
RB Marcel Reece 40 6-50,1
TE Jimmy Graham 5-50,1
PK Steven Hauschka 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @SF 10000028020 ***
Wilson was banged up in the Week 3 game, so holding his 16.5-point day against him is unfair. San Francisco, though, is weaker against the run than the pass, which is where many teams choose to exploit this group.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA @SF 8012100000 *
Rawls' status is up in the air at this time. Return Friday for a clearer picture.

Update: Rawls was removed from the injury report and should see a healthy workload against the Niners. He could lose some work to Alex Collins, but Rawls is a sound fantasy play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Collins, SEA @SF 4003200000 **
The matchup couldn't be much better for the hard-charging rookie. Collins could be the surprise player of the week in fantasy if Thomas Rawls cannot play. The Niners have given up a TD every 15.2 carries and 16.8 offensive touches since Week 11. That is a full two scores per game.

Update: Rawls has been removed from the report, but Collins could have enough of a role to be used as a flex play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @SF 0061001000 ***
Baldwin exceed all expectations last week and owned the Cardinals' secondary. San Francisco is another easy test, and Baldwin worked them for 164 yards and a score on eight catches in Week 3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @SF 004600000 ***
Kearse would be nothing more than a shot in the dark for deep leaguers looking for an off-the-beaten-path flier. San Francisco has given up 161.6 yards per game to receivers since Week 11, which is the 11th highest average.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @SF 002300000 ***
Even with the loss of Tyler Lockett, Richardson should not be utilized in any format as such a low-volume player.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @SF 005701000 ***
Graham enjoyed a 22-point fantasy showing in Week 3's meeting, and he came to life last week after a quiet spell. Make sure he is in all lineups this time around.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @SF 3333 ***
TDs are easy to come by against San Fran, so field goal chances are low as a result. This is a midrange matchup overall.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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