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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 50 5-30
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ CAR 10100021011 ***
Carolina has held quarterbacks in a headlock much of the year. This is the third-worst matchup for Week 12. The position has averaged only 14.9 fantasy points, tossing a TD and interception per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ CAR 4003200000 ***
Carolina has blanketed running backs in all facets. The position has managed only 108.5 offensive yards and two offensive scores in the last four games. Powell is a low-tier consideration in any setup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ CAR 300000000 ***
A smothering matchup in all senses, McGuire isn't worth a sniff in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ CAR 00000000 *
Forte's status is unclear at this time. Return Friday for an update on his expected availability.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ CAR 004501000 **
Anderson's ability to find the end zone on a nearly weekly basis has buoyed his fantasy worth. The Panthers haven't been all too kind to his position of late. This is the eighth-hardest matchup, and only two of the past 44 receptions have found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ CAR 003400000 ***
Kearse has been quiet as a church mouse for weeks now. Coming back from a bye week could help, but banking on it, in a week without byes, could prove to be a wasted lineup spot. Carolina is the eighth-best defense of WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ CAR 005500000 ***
This is one of the worst overall matchups in Week 12. One in 14 catches have scored, and tight ends have averaged just 9.0 PPR points against the Panthers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ CAR 1122 ***
Ten of the 11 kicks have been good, which is the third-lowest average of combined chances allowed per contest. This is the second-worst matchup for potential points.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
TE Jimmy Graham 5-50,1
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @SF 30000027030 ***
Wilson has averaged 17 fantasy points in the last three meetings with the Niners. He is probably a safe bet for slightly more production this go of it, but expecting a monster effort may be unrealistic. San Fran has surrendered north of 25 fantasy points per contest in its last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB J.D. McKissic, SEA @SF 2005300000 ***
McKissic could see a larger role with all of the injuries to this backfield. The 49ers have granted running backs the third-highest PPR average for fantasy points a game and highest weekly offensive yardage figure.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA @SF 00000000 *
A week after being a healthy scratch, Rawls could be reintroduced to the RB rotation. He should remain a stranger to fantasy lineups, despite the great matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, SEA @SF 00000000 *
Return later in the week for a better determination on Lacy's availability.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @SF 0061001000 ***
San Fran is not a great matchup for catches (26th) or yardage (22nd) per game, but one in 10 grabs goes for a score (9th). Baldwin was good for 10.4 PPR points in the Week 2 meeting. He went for 8-164-1 and 2-44-0 last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @SF 004501000 ***
One of Richardson's two catches in Week 2 went into the end zone. The Niners have permitted low figures for yardage and receptions on a weekly rate, but one of every 10 catches by wideouts has gone into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @SF 003400000 ***
Lockett caught six balls for 64 yards in the Week 2 contest with San Francisco. He missed both meetings last year. The 49ers have permitted one touchdown a game to wideouts since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @SF 004501000 ***
After two quality games vs. the Niners last season, Graham's worst outing of 2017 came in Week 2 against them. He has been far too good to let this stand in the way of starting him.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA @SF 1133 ***
Walsh has been too inconsistent to be trusted without bye weeks, even with a good matchup. Most of the damage is likely to be worth a single point, too.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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