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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 220,1
RB Chris Ivory 30 3-20
RB Chris Johnson 50 1-10
WR Eric Decker 6-90,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50
PK Nick Folk 1 FG

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @GB 40000023012 ***
Dare we say Smith--23 of 28 for 221 and a TD, with 38 rushing yards to boot--was more Russell Wilson than Wilson was last week with 19-28-191-2 and 27 rushing yards against the Pack? Of course, that feels like a restrained line from Wilson and something approaching the high end of Geno's fantasy productivity; in other words, no need to go gettin' giddy about his fantasy prospects this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @GB 7015300000 ***
Despite reports to the contrary, CJ?K remains the lead back in Rex Ryan's committee. His 13 touches resulted in 91 yards and a touch in his Jets debut, a line that feels like it could be his usual in Gotham.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @GB 4001100000 ***
Ivory's 10-102-1 stat line is propped up by one well-blocked long TD run, but the Packers have run-stopping issues--especially in the interior, where Ivory handles the bulk of the work--so he's not a bad option if you're hunting for RB help this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @GB 006701000 ***
As anticipated, Decker was Geno Smith's top target in his Jets debut. Expect that trend to continue, as he's clearly the team's best wideout, which puts him first in line for dibs on any passing game productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @GB 004500000 ***
Kerley's targets suggest he's settling into the Jets' WR2 role, though since we're not even sure there's enough productivity for one consistent fantasy receiver just yet he can't be started with any reasonable degree of certainty.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Cumberland, NYJ @GB 003200000 ***
Pedestrian tight end churning out a mediocre stat line that with no bye weeks doesn't warrant much fantasy consideration? Check.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @GB 1122 ***
Doesn't feel like the Jets consistently put up enough points for their kicker to warrant serious fantasy consideration.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 120,1 2-20
WR Percy Harvin 1-20
TE Zach Miller 3-30,1
PK Steven Hauschka 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @SD 20000019010 ***
Wilson is efficient, effective, and a bit of a fantasy enigma. Usually his team will run the ball and he'll do just enough for the win--not necessarily enough to load your fantasy stat sheet. Is he capable? Sure, and the Chargers just let Carson Palmer go for 304 & 2 against them. But he's as apt to give you 200 and 1 or 150 and 2 as he is something that's really helpful fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA @SD 9011100000 ***
San Diego's run D wasn't particularly tested last week; that will change when Lynch gets his customary 15-20 carries. It's early in the season, he's well rested... no reason not to pencil him in for his usual Beast Mode fantasy outburst.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, SEA @SD 3006700000 ***
The Seahawks will get Harvin his touches, but he'll find himself facing the usual quandaries: he may not get to a receiving or rushing milestone like 100 yards, so your league needs to reward combo yardage (or each yard individually) for maximum effect; and because Seattle's defense is so stout, there's really no need to blow Harvin up for a gaudy stat line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @SD 005600000 ***
Even though he's a solid WR2 he's on a team that doesn't need to throw a bunch. Worse, Russell Wilson is starting to spread the ball around to tertiary targets, making Baldwin that much more difficult to trust fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA @SD 003400000 ***
Miller has the distinct displeasure of being a low-end target on a run-first team, and this matchup isn't favorable enough for him to be banked on for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @SD 2233 ****
With a defense like they have, the Seahawks can afford to settle for field goals--good news for Hauschka, as it's better to count by threes.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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