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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA GB 40000025020 ***
While the yardage wasn't there last week, Wilson managed to toss three TDs for the fourth time in the past five games. He ran for 92 yards against the Rams and posted his best fantasy day of the year (30 points). Green Bay has shown a few cracks in the armor but still remains among the stronger defenses of the position. Some of it is smoke and mirrors, and this group will be put to the test in Wilson's backyard on a short week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA GB 8011100000 **
Carson (hip) was removed from the injury report and is expected to be a full-go in Week 11. The Packers have allowed seven rushing TDs in the last nine games, but the yardage has been moderate, and now the question is how many touches will Rashaad Penny claim after last week's 100-yard day. Be careful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA GB 4012200000 *
It stands to reason Penny will have a much larger role even with Chris Carson back in the mix. Trusting Penny is taking a sizeable leap of faith. The Packers have been among the stronger teams in the league at limiting RBs, and Penny isn't much of a receiving threat.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA GB 3004300000 ***
Davis can be stashed for one week to make sure Chris Carson's hip doesn't flare up. Keep him in reserve this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA GB 003601000 ***
One of fantasy's most pleasant surprises in 2018, Lockett returned to the end zone after a one-game absence. He doesn't offer a ton of worth without finding paydirt, so keep that in mind if you're looking at safety over upside. Green Bay has given up five scores in the last four weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, SEA GB 001101000 ***
Brown and David Moore are mostly interchangeable at this point. The former has scored in three straight outings spread over the course of the season. With a scare role in the target game, Brown doesn't belong in lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA GB 004600000 ***
Once a TD machine, Baldwin has yet to score in 2018 and remains mostly ineffective in the yardage department. Green Bay has been mostly solid against receivers since giving up six TDs in the opening three games. This secondary can give up points as it feels its way through injuries and inexperience. The hosting Seahawks have become reliant on the ground game to Baldwin's detriment.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick Vannett, SEA GB 003400000 ***
Vannett has proven to be a sneaky play the last few games. Don't be so cavalier this week. The Packers have been brutal against the position the entire year, allowing exactly zero touchdowns over 34 receptions. Only three teams have been stronger overall in PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA GB 1144 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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