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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ @NE 20000023011 ***
Darnold has five TDs and three metric boatloads of yards in the last two games -- OK, it's more like 594 yards, but who is counting? The rookie has games of 24.2 and 29.5 fantasy points to his credit in that short span. Facing New England in Foxborough is something he hasn't done. In fact, facing the Patriots at all is new to him after missing the first meeting with an injury. Darnold is best left out of lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ @NE 5003300000 ***
McGuire has scored in three straight games, and he had two TDs last week vs. Green Bay. The second-year back is auditioning for a larger role in 2019 and faces a Pats team in New England that has slipped a bit in the last six weeks vs. RBs. LeSean McCoy was dominated last week, and McGuire is not a much better play in any setting -- he wasn't a factor in the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @NE 003400000 ***
Anderson has scored in three straight games but was held to a 2-22-0 day against the Pats in Week 12. He has been too involved of late to ignore, seeing 24 targets in the last two games alone. Last year, in Week 17, at the Pats, he was held to just one catch for two yards. New England will try to cancel him out and force the passing game to go elsewhere. Keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ @NE 006601000 **
Herndon broke a six-game scoreless snap with a TD vs. Green Bay last week. He has been erratically used in 2018, and the rookie is tough to play, but he was granted seven receptions for 57 yards in the earlier meeting with the Pats. They will likely allow it again as New England is happy to give up dinking and dunking underneath.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ @NE 3311 ***
No writeup available

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA ARI 30000021020 ***
Seattle just has to win to avoid falling into the No. 6 spot, so it's really unclear how long Wilson will be asked to play. The general ideal is just long enough for the Seahawks to put the game at arm's length for Josh Rosen. The matchup, on paper, is not ideal but it has improved a good bit in recent weeks. Three of the last five games have resulted in fantasy passers with 21-plus points. Wilson went for just 10.7 in the Week 4 meeting. The bright spot may be Arizona has yielded four rushing TDs to QBs this year, which is tied for tops in the league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA ARI 10013200000 ***
Look for Seattle to play guys just long enough for the game to get out of hand for Arizona. Carson should be a great play once again, and he belongs in all lineups. He sat out the earlier meeting with the Cards, but this is one of the softest run defenses in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA ARI 5001100000 ***
Penny should return this week and could be a low-tier gamble in DFS. The Cardinals are awful vs. RBs, and he would see a lot of work if the game is lopsided early on. Seattle could rest Chris Carson later in the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Davis, SEA ARI 200000000 ***
Davis will see a larger role if the game gets out of hand and Chris Carson is rested. Rashaad Penny is expected to return this week, so it comes down to how Seattle chooses to deploy the rookie in his first game since Week 14. With Carson out in the Week 4 trip to Arizona, Davis ran roughshod over the Cardinals. He finished with 101 yards and two touchdowns, adding four points in PPR to this total.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA ARI 005601000 ***
Baldwin has been a fantasy monster in the last two weeks, and he belongs in all conventional lineups, even with a tougher matchup. Banged up early in the year, Baldwin was good for just 41 yards on five catches in Week 4. He posted lines of 5-95-0 in Week 10 and 4-90-2 in Week 17 last year. Baldwin is a somewhat risky but worthwhile play in smaller DFS contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA ARI 003400000 ***
Lockett hasn't scored in three straight games, easily the longest drought of this season for him. He still managed to post 99 yards on four grabs last week and is mostly dependent on touchdowns. He finished with a five-catch, 53-yard day in the Week 4 trip to Arizona.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick Vannett, SEA ARI 001101000 *
Despite a quality matchup, Vannett is unplayable in all formats. Look for more volume and upside.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA ARI 2244 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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