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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ @CLE 0000025021 ***
There are too many solid passers this week to take a shot on Darnold against a promising Cleveland defense (3 TDs, 3 INTs in two games). Look for a better way of finding quarterback points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ @CLE 5001100000 ***
One in every 26.5 rushing attempts have made it into the end zone thus far against the Browns. Cleveland has given up 99 rushing yards and 57 receiving gains to the position. This is a top-eight matchup in both primary scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @CLE 2005400000 ***
Powell's only meaningful contributions come via the sky. The position has averaged six catches for 57 yards against the Browns so far -- numbers on the periphery of being a positive matchup. Powell has flex value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @CLE 0071001000 ***
Sam Darnold loves himself some Enunwa. The well-built wideout has 21 targets, good for 13-155-1 in this first two games of 2018. Cleveland offers a promising matchup. The Browns have given up the eighth-most receptions and ninth-most yards per game but only three TDs in the last 32 grabs have found paydirt (21st).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @CLE 003401000 ***
After a 2017 season that promised hope for a true breakout, Anderson's game has almost vanished with Sam Darnold starting over Josh McCown. The pair have hooked up for only four receptions on six targets in two games, but Anderson found the end zone in the opener vs. Detroit. Darnold has favored Quincy Enunwa more than three to one. Cleveland has yielded a fair amount of catches (8th most) and yardage (9th) but only three scores on 32 grabs, or the 11th-toughest figure for exploitation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., NYJ @CLE 003500000 ***
Pryor has 11 targets this year, producing seven grabs for 133 yards. Facing his former team could add some incentive, although his role is just barely enough to make him a consideration. The Browns have given up top-10 stats for catches and yardage through two weeks, permitting three TDs along the way.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ @CLE 2222 ***
Cleveland offers a midrange option for fantasy purposes after having allowed four field goal tries and as many XPAs. Only 50 percent of the field goals have been accurate, however.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
WR Brandon Marshall 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA DAL 20000025020 ***
Despite having no interceptions (one of four teams), Dallas has given up just one aerial TD and a lone ground score to the position. A formidable pass rush against Seattle's line spells trouble for Wilson. In the first two games of 2018, quarterbacks have averaged a mere 220 yards to the position (22nd).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA DAL 8013200000 ***
Carson has seen a limited workload -- only 13 carries and three receptions -- through two games. He has looked good with the ball, so it is a little strange the 'Hawks haven't given him a larger workload even with Rashaad Penny being a high draft choice and playing at a lesser level. Dallas has ceded almost nothing on the ground (21st in standard scoring) but is ranked 10th place in PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA DAL 2002200000 ***
Penny has seen more touches than Chris Carson, even though Carson has been a more explosive player so far. Running backs have permitted more work through the air than on the ground. Penny isn't playable at this point.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA DAL 004701000 ***
Dallas' pass rush has made a huge difference for its young secondary. Lockett is the de facto WR1 for this offense while Doug Baldwin is on the mend, but we're talking about a terrible matchup. Perhaps gamers can get lucky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, SEA DAL 004500000 ***
Dallas has given up the second-fewest catches, points per reception, fantasy points in PPR and non-, and ranks third in yardage surrendered. This is one of four teams that have yet to allow a WR score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Dissly, SEA DAL 004401000 ***
Yep, Will Dissly is the No. 1 tight end in non-PPR scoring. Uh huh. Yeah. ... He went nearly 60 minutes with just one catch for six yards in Week 2 before finding the end zone for the second straight game to start his career. Known mostly as a blocker, the Seahawks' lack of weaponry could keep him involved. Dallas has given up a 13-109-1 line to be the No. 12 matchup in standard and eighth in PPR.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, SEA DAL 1133 ***
Dallas rates among the tougher defenses against kickers, giving up three field goal (23rd) and two point-after attempts (31st).

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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