FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 220,1
RB Chris Ivory 30 3-20
RB Chris Johnson 50 1-10
WR Eric Decker 6-90,1
WR Percy Harvin 1-20
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50
PK Nick Folk 1 FG

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @NE 20000019011 ***
It's actually a sneaky favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that's allowed multiple TD tosses in three straight games. But it'll take a rushing score for Smith to be a real fantasy factor, and the Pats haven't allowed one yet this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @NE 4002100000 ****
Ivory may be the lead dog but he's still sharing at least some of the workload. And against a Patriots defense that's giving up 65 rushing yards per game at home, even a share won't be enough to move the fantasy needle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @NE 3001100000 ***
CJicK is seeing his touches and production dwindle, to the point he probably doesn't even warrant a fantasy roster spot at this juncture.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @NE 003401000 **
Kerley isn't doing much with the second-tier looks he's getting in the Jets' passing game. If you're banking on fantasy help here you're playing the "not covered by Darrelle Revis" card. There are better cards in the deck.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @NE 004500000 ****
We're sayin' there's a chance, as the Patriots have allowed four WR TDs in the past two games. That said, if Decker winds up on the business end of Darrelle Revis... well, that's not going to end well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @NE 00000000 **
With Harvin you're hoping the Seahawks find enough ways to get him the ball that he busts a big play. Against a Rams' defense that's allowed seven WR TDs in just the past three games, there's a good shot Percy does just that.
Update: Harvin has been traded to the Jets, who have already played this week. So any pipe dreams of Harvin playing a full 16 games this year... poof.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @NE 005500000 ****
Over the past three games the Pats have surrendered 8-93-1 to Travis Kelce and 6-105 to Scott Chandler. With Amaro's targets--and productivity--on the dramatic rise, you have to like his chances for a fantasy helper here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @NE 1111 ****
Aside from the week the Jets were shut out, Folk has consistently produced mediocre numbers. You're okay with him, but you can probably do better elsewhere.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 120,1 2-20
TE Zach Miller 3-30,1
PK Steven Hauschka 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @STL 30100020020 ***
Plenty of reasons to shrug off last week's disappointing showing against the Cowboys and get back in the saddle--to name two, Wilson's multiple TD track record prior to last week (as in, every game) and the Rams' multiple TD track record this season (as in, every game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA @STL 8004200000 ***
Lynch has a strong track record against the Rams: 100-plus yards in three of the last five, 88 or more rushing yards in five of the last six, and touchdowns in four of the last six meetings. The Rams have allowed only one RB TD on the year but gave up 100-plus yards to DeMarco Murray and Bobby Rainey. No reason Lynch can't keep to his appointed rounds in St. Louis this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ricardo Lockette, SEA @STL 001301000 **
Lockette has two of the three receiving TDs scored by Seahawk wideouts this year, which makes him a viable reach against a Rams' secondary that's surrendered seven WR TDs in the past three games. But it's always a risk mining the depths of a Seattle receiving corps that hasn't produced a double-digit fantasy game since Week 2, and only then because of Percy Harvin's rushing stats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @STL 003301000 **
Kearse has the two biggest yardage games by a Seahawk receiver this year: 62 and 61. No Seattle wideout other than Percy Harvin has had a double-digit fantasy game, so while this is a favorable matchup the table scraps for non-Harvin Seahawks are scarce.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @STL 004600000 ****
While WRs against the Rams is a favorable matchup, the Seahawks don't tend to throw enough to make a secondary target like Baldwin a safe fantasy bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA @STL 002100000 ****
Assuming Miller returns from injury he's an unlikely candidate for fantasy help given that no Seattle TE has scored or topped 50 yards this season.
Update: Miller has been ruled out for this week due to his ankle injury. Not that you were banking on him for much anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @STL 1133 ***
Hauschka's had just one off week in an otherwise solid season; the Rams have allowed double digits to three of the five kickers they've faced. Plenty of reason to like what Hauschka brings to the fantasy table this week.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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