FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: NYJ 3, SEA 23 (Line: SEA by 6.5)

Players Updated: Marshawn Lynch

Players to Watch: Shonn Greene, Sidney Rice

The 3-5 Jets are on a two game losing streak and sport a 1-2 road record. The 5-4 Seahawks are 4-0 at home. Kind of ironic when "the Jets" do not travel well.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA -----
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 50 220,1
RB Chris Ivory 30 3-20
RB Chris Johnson 50 1-10
WR Eric Decker 6-90,1
WR Percy Harvin 1-20
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50
PK Nick Folk 1 FG

Pregame Notes: All the fun of beating up the Colts is long gone with a two game losing streak and facing two consecutive road trips to face very good defenses will no little to turn that around. The defense just gave up about 60 points over the last two games and what's worse is that in week three the Jets won 23-30 in Miami but come off a 30-9 drubbing by the FIns who are clearly improving while the Jets just get a little worse.

Mark Sanchez is stuck at one touchdown per game but varies more than any other quarterback in yardage. He's passed for more than 300 yards twice and yet was held under 140 yards three times. Tim Tebow is not going to replace him and was not traded. Tebow's only passed three times this year. Sanchez is getting a bit more comfortable with his young receivers but facing two outstanding defenses these next couple of weeks is not likely to produce a 300 yard game. It may well be two more trips below 140 yards.

The bye week helped Bilal Powell and Joe McKnight get healthy but all that will do is drain away any fantasy value that Shonn Greene might have. The Jets have rushed for only five touchdowns and Greene has them all - three came in Indy game. Lex Hilliard played these last two weeks with the others injured but only ran three times per game. Greene has yet to rush for more than 54 yards in an away game and heading to Seattle is not going to change that.

Jeremy Kerley is now the best wideout for the Jets and as such gets the most coverage by the secondary. He's not nearly good enough to beat that and only managed 43 yards against the Fins despite getting 11 targets and five catches. Stephen Hill is no better with marginal yards and catches each week despite being a starter. Clyde Gates was a surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in week eight but that's basically equal to his previous two seasons combined. This is not a productive group though they generally do catch the one touchdown per week.

The only real positive development has been the healthy Dustin Keller catching seven passes for 93 yards and a score on the Pats and then another seven receptions for 67 yards versus the Fins. He's the one to watch here and the only consistent addition to the offense recently.

This is likely to be the worst matchup of the year for an offense that is stumbling against just average defenses.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 26 18 22 24 9
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 5 11 6 19 13 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ MIA 20000018011 ***
Smith has been borderline fantasy relevant a couple times this season, but barely. It usually takes rushing stats for Smith to have fantasy value, and the Dolphins haven't given up much in that department.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ MIA 5002100000 ***
Ivory is no longer the Jets' clear-cut go-to back; he essentially split carries with Chris Johnson last week and doesn't fit the mold of the few backs who have found success against Miami--namely, speed guys.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ MIA 3002100000 ***
Johnson has a couple solid outings against the Dolphins on his resume, though they came two and four years ago as a Texan. Given that the Dolphins just let CJ Anderson run all over them, there's a chance the Jets find a way to do the same with this CJ and/or Chris Ivory. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance nonetheless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ MIA 005501000 **
The Dolphins have given up some big WR outings; however there's a big difference between the likes of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas catching passes from Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning... and Decker trying to catch errant tosses from Geno Smith. Subdue your expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ MIA 004400000 ***
The advantage Harvin has is that there are ways to get him the ball that don't involve Geno Smith's accuracy. Whether the Jets go out of their way to do that here remains to be seen.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ MIA 002300000 ***
There's barely enough passing game productivity to feed one, maybe two wide receivers in New York. Kerley is running a distant third to Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, so there's no reason to think he'll be a fantasy factor here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ MIA 1111 ***
Folk has a total of 20 points over the past for games, kicking for an offense that hasn't topped 25 all year. Neither of those bode well for his fantasy prospects this week.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ -----
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 120,1 2-20
TE Zach Miller 3-30,1
TE Tony Moeaki 1-10
PK Steven Hauschka 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The solid win over the Vikings ended a two game losing streak but the Seahawks were gashed by Adrian Peterson in ways no one thought possible. Granted - they shut down Christian Ponder faster than a combination strip club/child care center. the Seahawks are highly consistent too - they always win at home and always lose on the road other than the Carolina trip. That makes winning the NFC West impossible since all three divisional matchups so far were on the road and resulted in a loss. Even the trip to St. Louis. After this week the only remaining home games will be against those same three divisional rivals but the damage has already been done.

Russell Wilson is inconsistent at best but threw five touchdowns in the last two weeks and currently totals 13 touchdowns versus eight interceptions. At home he's thrown for multiple scores in all but one game. He remains a near lock to stay under 200 yards each week he is not playing a very weak secondary.

Marshawn Lynch ran for over 100 yards in each of the last three games and scored twice in that time. He's only good for one or two catches each week but rushes for healthy yardage in every game, more so at home. He'll face the Jets that have already allowed two runners to exceed 150 rushing yards and allow at least one rushing score in any game that features even an average running back. This will be a nice game for Lynch before you lose him for the bye next week.

Tight ends still do not matter here and the wide receivers are to inconsistent to merit much fantasy consideration. Golden Tate caught two scores against the Vikings but only scored once in the five previous weeks that included no catches in San Francisco and just seven yards in St. Louis. Sidney Rice rarely turns in more than 60 yards in any game but scored once in three of the last four games.

The Jets are very good against wide receivers with only one touchdown allowed to the position since the season opener and no receiver has topped the 87 yards gained by Reggie Wayne. This week should be mostly about the run and a passing score could go anywhere. The Jets are actually softest against tight ends but the Seahawks almost never use theirs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 28 27 22 22
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 21 1 28 25 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @SF 60000021010 ***
Wilson has one fantasy game of note against the 49ers, and that came in Seattle; his average outing in San Francisco consists of 172 passing yards, eight rushing yards and one TD. He's been running more of late--251 yards the past three games--so if there's fantasy value to be salvaged that's how he'll have to do it. Keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA @SF 7013300000 ***
Does Lynch love facing the 49ers? Yes. He's scored in four straight, a total of seven TDs in those games, and topped 100 yards four times in the past six meetings. After seeing Alfred Morris bang out 125 and a touch in San Fran last week, you have to like Lynch's chances of extending his run of success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @SF 006600000 ****
Baldwin is the best bet to be on the business end of enough of Russell Wilson's tosses to be a fantasy factor, but the upside to his fantasy value is limited.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @SF 004500000 ***
Kearse hasn't been a fantasy factor in almost two months. Why start now?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Luke Willson, SEA @SF 002201000 **
The Niners have allowed three TE TDs in the past three games, but with Seattle it could be Willson or Tony Moeaki or Cooper Helfet doing the damage--which makes all of them risky fantasy plays at best.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @SF 3322 ****
Hauschka's rock steady consistency and reliability trumps a San Francisco defense that's allowed only one kicker all year to top seven points.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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