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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

Prediction: OAK 20, BAL 27 (Line: BAL by 7.5)

Players Updated: Brandon Myers, Darren McFadden

Players to Watch: Marcel Reese

The 3-5 Raiders are only 1-3 in road games and just lost most of their backfield to a collective high ankle sprain. The 6-2 Ravens are a perfect 4-0 at home though their last three wins were all by less than one touchdown. Still, it is just the Raiders and they have no real backfield anyway.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL -----
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO -----
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 120,1 2-20
RB Doug Martin 110,1 3-30
WR Brandon LaFell 2-20
TE Jared Cook 5-60
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders have posted surprisingly good points this year though they often come against weak defenses or as junk yards and points at the end of losing games. Thanks to playing in the AFC West, the schedule is not too bad in the second half of the season but then again - it wasn't that tough in the first eight games and still only led to a 3-5 record.

What has been working is the passing of Carson Palmer who has yet to pass for less than 200 yards and comes off a season high 414 yards and four scores in the losing effort to the Buccaneers. Palmer has failed to score in only one game this year and most end up with 300+ yards.

Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson suffered high ankle sprains against the Bucs. That's a problem because the only ones left are Taiwan Jones who they clearly do not trust and want to avoid, and fullback Marcel Reece. Once McFadden and Goodson were gone last week, Reece caught eight passes for 95 yards and a touchdown but did not take any carries. Even McFadden ran just seven times for 17 yards in that game. Defensive injuries have caused the Ravens to be softer against the run but nothing the Raiders have appears capable of taking advantage. That should bode even better for the passing game since that is the only way the Raiders are going to advance the ball.

McFadden has not yet been officially ruled out but even if he plays he won't be 100% and he's been largely ineffective this year anyway.

Brandon Myers finally scored this year - twice in fact - when he caught a season best eight passes for 59 yards against the Bucs. he's been very consistent with around 50 yards per week and can break into the top ten for tight ends if the Raiders continue to use him in the red zone.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is also doing more in recent weeks with a score in Kansas City and turning in 70+ yards against both the Jags and Bucs. Denarius Moore fell off his three game scoring streak but still posted 66 yards on four catches last week. He's averaged right around 70 yards per game and scored four times this season. Myers, Moore and Heyward-Bey make up most of the passing production each week. Rod Streater and Derek Hagen have the decent showing every month or two.

The Raiders are likely to throw 45+ passes this week and that should benefit the main three receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 12 9 21 9 5 27
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 8 20 17 22 29 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @DEN 0000027012 ***
Yeah, but no. ... Until Carr gets it together and the offense starts clicking, keep him in reserve. Denver is far too dangerous of a matchup to risk playing him anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK @DEN 5012100000 ***
Lynch didn't hit is stride until the second half of 2017. He ran for a TD and ground out 111 total yards (20.1 points) in the Week 12 contest. Lynch looked fresh in Week 1 and is a decent enough play in the second week of 2018.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK @DEN 1005400000 ***
Richard has a pretty good matchup for pass-catching backs, so consider his Week 1 performance to be a precursor for what he could accomplish in Week 2. Denver gave up receiving TDs to RBs with the highest frequency in 2017 and allowed 15 PPR points to Seattle backs in Week 1.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, OAK @DEN 2003200000 ***
The matchup is awful using last year's data, and Denver was just dominant against Seattle backs on the ground. This unit did give up 15 PPR points, however, so maybe Martin can chip in that way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK @DEN 004600000 ***
Last season, Cooper caught only two of his eight targets in Week 4 at Denver, for a dismal nine yards. He landed his only target in Week 12 for another nine yards, although this one was good for six points. A new page in a new system this year, yet the results are expected to be rather low.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, OAK @DEN 003400000 ***
It is tough to expect much from Nelson in his second game as a Raider going up against the vaunted Broncos pass defense. Denver ranked as the second-strongest PPR defense of WRs last year and fourth-best in standard scoring. In Week 1, it held Seattle to only seven catches and 112 yards, although a pair of those grabs found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK @DEN 004601000 ***
Cook was a monster in Week 1, authoring a 9-180-0 day on 12 targets. The Raiders struggled to get the ball to the outside and may do so again against Denver's corners, leaving Cook as a viable weapon over the middle once again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, OAK @DEN 2222 ***
Denver was really good at stopping kickers (7th) last year from attempting field goals but awful at keeping teams out of the end zone. At any rate, it netted out to being a negative matchup by a hair. Nugent is a risky option no matter the opponent.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK -----
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT -----
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD -----
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT -----
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 260,1
WR Michael Crabtree 4-70,1
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens have a big problem this year in that they play well enough at home to win every game so far but on the road they are far less formidable. The defense has taken a step down thanks to significant injuries and the offense just never seems to hit a higher gear. That;s good enough to beat teams like the visiting Raiders but the remaining schedule includes two critical meetings with the Steelers and home games against the Broncos and Giants. There is a chance the Ravens are as good as they are going to get and that a downturn is imminent. But that won't be apparent yet this week.

Joe Flacco throws for a touchdown in almost every game but that is usually it. Just one score. He hasn't thrown for more than one touchdown since week three and his yardage keeps getting worse. After starting out with three of four games producing 299 yards or more, he's posted less than 190 passing yards in three of the last four. If this was graded on the quarter system, he would have been "A-" for the first four games and maybe a "C-" in the last four. As a schedule quirk, he did face weaker defenses to start the year and then more formidable opponents the last month. This game should be a good indicator since the Raiders are average against the pass only on a good day at home.

Ray Rice was inexplicably limited to only nine runs for 42 yards in week eight in Houston. He was appeased last week by running the ball 25 times for 98 yards and one score in Cleveland. Rice has been less productive in the last month though and even his role as a receiver has declined. Over the first four games, Rice caught 22 passes for 174 yards. In these last four weeks, he's only caught nine passes for 77 yards. Bernard Pierce was even allowed to come in and score the short touchdown last week. Rice is still productive and a must start back but his numbers have fallen off from last year and even the first month of the season.

The tight ends started out well with Dennis Pitta scoring twice and posting 50+ yards for the first three weeks but has since not been worth any fantasy consideration. You want consistency? Pitta gained 33 yards in each of his last three games.

Anquan Boldin hasn't scored since the season opener and varies wildly from as high as 131 yards and as low as just seven yards in a game. Torrey Smith's been mediocre with yards and catches this past month but did score twice. He has not topped 50 yards in a game since week four but his five receiving touchdowns lead the team.

This week will be interesting because a home game versus the Raiders should be an indicator of what the best situation for the Ravens can produce.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 18 11 19 17 10 10
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 23 31 14 18 30 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @CIN 0000024020 ***
A very un-Flacco-like Week 1 could be closer to the norm of 2018 with his trio of new targets. He finished with 236 yards and three scores vs. a staggering Bills team. Cincinnati gave up the 11th-highest total of fantasy points to QB of the week facing Andrew Luck, and Flacco could come close once again to be a QB1. However, divisional matchups, on a short week, no less, can be tricky to project.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL @CIN 3000003000 ***
Jackson probably won't play more than a few trick snaps. Avoid him in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Collins, BAL @CIN 8012100000 ***
Collins was downright awful in Week 1 without including a short TD plunge. He averaged 1.9 yards per carry and caught a single pass for six yards. Last year, he finished with 17.6 PPR points in Week 17 against the Bengals and was not involved in the first game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Javorius Allen, BAL @CIN 3005300000 ***
With Kenneth Dixon out of the picture, Allen has a good shot at racking up some PPR points for desperate gamers. The Bengals allowed 10 catches for only 54 yards by Indy RBs. Allen has low-end flex worth this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, BAL @CIN 004501000 ***
Brown had a respectable Ravens debut in Week 1, and he's a reasonable gamble to contribute again after Cincinnati gave up 17-141-1 to Colts wideouts in the opener. Last year, for whatever it is still worth, this was the third-worst matchup for wideouts in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, BAL @CIN 005600000 ***
He caught three of six targets for 48 yards and a smooth TD in the opener against the Bills. Indy receivers managed to post the 13th-most PPR points of the week vs. Cincy, scoring once on 17 grabs. Last year, the Bengals sported the No. 3 defense at stopping WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Willie Snead IV, BAL @CIN 003300000 ***
Purely a flier in any format, Snead found the end zone once in Week 1 on four catches for 49 yards. Cincinnati boasted fantasy's third-toughest defense of the position a year ago and was able to hold Indy WRs to one TD on a hearty 17 catches in Week 1.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Nick Boyle, BAL @CIN 003400000 ***
Boyle is filling in for Hayden Hurst and has an outside shot at being fantasy-relevant. The Bengals gave up 12-124-1 to the Colts tight ends in Week 1 and have several receivers to worry about in Baltimore. Boyle is playable for owners on the wrong end of Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen injuries.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @CIN 1133 ***
Tucker is always a must-start. Divisional matchups can go a number of directions, but this one could result in a higher than usual chance of kicks. Cincy surrendered a pair of field goals and extra points apiece in Week 1.

WEEK 10
2012
IND at JAC (THU) DEN at CAR *NYJ at SEA TEN at MIA
ATL at NO *DET at MIN OAK at BAL *KC at PIT (MON)
*BUF at NE *HOU at CHI *SD at TB Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at PHI NYG at CIN *STL at SF ARI, CLE, GB, WAS

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