FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: ARI 14, ATL 27 (Line: ATL by 10)

Players Updated: Julio Jones, Michael Turner

Players to Watch: Julio Jones

The 4-5 Cardinals are on a five game losing free-fall while the 8-1 Falcons return home after their only loss on the year. With the offensive woes of the Cards, a trap game here seem impossible.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 300,2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 7-90,1
WR Michael Floyd 3-40
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals come off their bye still wondering how it all went so wrong so fast. Five losses in a row and chances are this could continue. If the visiting Rams win in week 12, the Cardinals may actually go from 4-0 to 4-12. the last five games failed to produce more than 17 points. That's not going to get it done in Atlanta.

Kevin Kolb has been out since week six and early reports have him missing this week as well. John Skelton's been solid with yardage in his three starts with each topping 260 yards but he's only thrown two scores in that time. The Cardinals only scored 10 passing touchdowns this year and three of those came in the Dolphins matchup. Skelton did throw for 262 yards and a score in Minnesota so he's had some impact on the road. Not enough of course, but some.

Beanie Wells is slated to return in week 12 and claims that he has really gotten healthy with the time off and vows to return with a vengeance. Not going to take too much to look better than what's been happening in his absence. LaRod Stephens-Howling scored in two of the last three games but only posted 38 total yards against the 49ers and 59 yards at Green Bay. When Wells returns, Stephens-Howling returns to the special teams role he's had his entire career.

Larry Fitzgerald scored for the fourth time this year but his stats are well short of expectations and not changing much with Skelton instead of Kolb. These last three weeks have only seen him with no more htan 74 yards and the trip to MInnesota was just 29 yards on four catches. Andre Roberts' improved in those three games with never fewer than 65 yards in a game. Overall - there are just two wideouts of any note on this team and the rushing game is even more broken than usual.

The problem here, besides the Cardinals having nearly no offense, is that the Falcons best strength goes against the Cardinals only strength - wide receivers. This game is a hope for trash time and garbage yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 19 32 10 24 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 14 24 4 27 2 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI SEA 0000026020 ***
Been a while since the Seahawks saw a legit threat at quarterback. How long? Keen, Manziel, Clausen, Bridgewater, Roethlisberger (who threw for 456 yards but only one TD), Gabbert... almost two months back to Palmer's 363 and 3 in Seattle. With a shot at home field throughout the playoffs on the line the Cards will turn Palmer loose early, giving him a legit shot at solid fantasy numbers even in the face of a tough matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Johnson, ARI SEA 8014400000 ***
It won't be easy against the top RB defense, but Johnson has 120 or more combo yards in each of his four starts since taking over for the injured Chris Johnson, with five touchdowns in that span. The last time Arizona faced this defense CJ and Andre Ellington combined for 119 and 1 on the ground while DJ touched the ball just once (for eight yards). So... tough, yes, but not impossible.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI SEA 004501000 ***
Brown was still battling a hamstring injury and targeted just three times without a catch in the earlier meeting with Seattle. He's the third wheel in this offense, but that might just mean he draws lesser coverage so don't bench up just because you fear the matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI SEA 006501000 ***
Fitz has taken a back seat to other members of the Arizona receiving corps for the better part of three months. However, his touchdown last week and 10-130 in the earlier matchup with Seattle suggest that just because he's not the top target on his team doesn't mean he won't help your fantasy squad.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI SEA 003300000 **
Floyd owns 40 percent of the WR TDs allowed by the Seahawks this season, and he's accounted for a third of the 100-yard WR games they've given up as well. With the Legion of Boom spread thin across Arizona's sterling receiving corps, plenty of opportunity for Floyd this week.

Update: Floyd missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and was limited on Friday by a knee injury. He's listed as questionable, but there's mostly optimism in Arizona that he'll be available this weekend.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI SEA 2233 ***
Season-high thirteen
last time he faced the Seahawks
Like his chances here

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO 27-31
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 260,2
WR Devin Hester 2-30
WR Julio Jones 5-80
WR Roddy White 6-80,1
TE Tony Moeaki 3-40
PK Matt Bryant 2 FG 3 XP
PK Shayne Graham 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: It was bound to happen eventually and it is not like the Saints don't already have a comfortable three game lead. It was hard to see where a loss was going to happen because the Falcons schedule is so easy that only eventual malaise allowed the loss.

Matt Ryan has been a near lock to score multiple touchdowns each week and he comes off a season best 411 yards in New Orleans. He's averaged 308 yards each week and generally plays bigger the tougher the matchup. The incoming Cards don't sport much offense but they have a decent defense that will make the Falcons work for the win. As good as the Cardinals have been versus the run, Ryan will need to pass to finish out this game in the win column.

Michael Turner comes off a horrible showing with only 15 yards on 13 runs in New Orleans and he's been pretty bad in three of the last four games that say him remain below 60 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers has offered some help as the third down back but overall this rushing attack is only getting worse as the season progresses. Turner should remain fresh later in the year because he doesn't hardly have to run at all each game. He just takes the handoff and tries to fall throught the offensive line.

Tony Gonzalez lulled them to sleep with three straight games with just 42 yards or less and no scores but then turned in 11 receptions for 122 yards and two scores last week. The oddity about Gonzo is that hels scored five times this year and four went in road games. His top three yardage games were also away from Atlanta.

The fantasy world held their breath when Julio Jones left the Saints game with a knee problem but he return later in the second half and ended with four catches for 75 yards. There has been no talk at all about the knee and since he returned to the game, he's expected to be completely fine again this week. Roddy White is usually the star at home but comes off a 114 yard effort in New Orleans.

The Cardinals defense has been top ten in most categories but their woeful offense is no help and the Falcons at home after a loss should be even better than the last few weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 3 17 6 2 3 16
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 8 6 18 2 11 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL NO 0000030020 ***
Ten of the last 11 quarterbacks to face the Saints have thrown multiple touchdowns, with seven of them also topping 300 yards. So if you've been waiting for a quality fantasy effort from Ryan--because he hasn't thrown multiple touchdowns since Week 11--this may be your chance. Something along the lines of his 295 and 2 from the earlier meeting wouldn't surprise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Devonta Freeman, ATL NO 8016501000 ***
Freeman rolled up 156 yards from scrimmage and scored twice in the earlier meeting with New Orleans. He's regaining his touches and his productivity since coming back from injury, topping 90 combo yards in the three games he's received 20-plus touches and scoring in each of the last two. Over the past eight games the Saints are giving up 191 combo yards and a touchdown to opposing backs; slot Freeman for the lion's share of those numbers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL NO 0091201000 ***
The Saints haven't had an answer for any receiver of not this season, especially of late as they've surrendered 11 WR TDs in the past month. Julio was "limited" to 6-93 in the previous meeting; that feels like a baseline here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roddy White, ATL NO 004500000 ***
White scored in the earlier meeting with New Orleans and last week notched his most productive game since Week 1 with 67 yards. With the Saints giving up multiple WR TDs in three of the last four games--and 573 WR yards over that span--there may be enough for one last fantasy hurrah for White.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jacob Tamme, ATL NO 003200000 ***
While on the surface the matchup is attractive, the Saints haven't allowed a TE TD in a month; besides, Tamme has been too lightly used over the past month to warrant fantasy attention.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Shayne Graham, ATL NO 1133 ***
Bryant bad before
This game has highest O/U
Graham good this time

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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