FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: ARI 14, ATL 27 (Line: ATL by 10)

Players Updated: Julio Jones, Michael Turner

Players to Watch: Julio Jones

The 4-5 Cardinals are on a five game losing free-fall while the 8-1 Falcons return home after their only loss on the year. With the offensive woes of the Cards, a trap game here seem impossible.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 300,2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 7-90,1
WR Michael Floyd 3-40
TE Rob Housler 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals come off their bye still wondering how it all went so wrong so fast. Five losses in a row and chances are this could continue. If the visiting Rams win in week 12, the Cardinals may actually go from 4-0 to 4-12. the last five games failed to produce more than 17 points. That's not going to get it done in Atlanta.

Kevin Kolb has been out since week six and early reports have him missing this week as well. John Skelton's been solid with yardage in his three starts with each topping 260 yards but he's only thrown two scores in that time. The Cardinals only scored 10 passing touchdowns this year and three of those came in the Dolphins matchup. Skelton did throw for 262 yards and a score in Minnesota so he's had some impact on the road. Not enough of course, but some.

Beanie Wells is slated to return in week 12 and claims that he has really gotten healthy with the time off and vows to return with a vengeance. Not going to take too much to look better than what's been happening in his absence. LaRod Stephens-Howling scored in two of the last three games but only posted 38 total yards against the 49ers and 59 yards at Green Bay. When Wells returns, Stephens-Howling returns to the special teams role he's had his entire career.

Larry Fitzgerald scored for the fourth time this year but his stats are well short of expectations and not changing much with Skelton instead of Kolb. These last three weeks have only seen him with no more htan 74 yards and the trip to MInnesota was just 29 yards on four catches. Andre Roberts' improved in those three games with never fewer than 65 yards in a game. Overall - there are just two wideouts of any note on this team and the rushing game is even more broken than usual.

The problem here, besides the Cardinals having nearly no offense, is that the Falcons best strength goes against the Cardinals only strength - wide receivers. This game is a hope for trash time and garbage yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 19 32 10 24 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 14 24 4 27 2 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Stanton, ARI SF 0000019011 ***
In this offense Carson Palmer posted matching gems of 298 and 2 and 407 and 2 against the Niners. Stanton is capable of running Bruce Arians' offense, but until we see more--a touchdown pass would be nice, for starters--he can't be banked on for fantasy assistance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI SF 7003200000 ***
At this point the injury risk--the limited practice time, the questionable status, the game-time decision--is assumed. But thus far Ellington has produced, 181 yards from scrimmage in two games of work. He racked up 131 combo yards and a touchdown on 24 touches in last season's series; with a greater workload his numbers should uptick as well, especially against a San Fran D that served up 143 combo yards to DeMarco Murray in its last road game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI SF 004601000 **
Floyd has yet to make the love connection with Drew Stanton, but six targets suggest it wasn't due to lack of trying. It's not a tremendously favorable matchup, but Floyd has scored or topped 90 yards in each of his last three matchups with the Niners and can't be discounted here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI SF 006500000 ****
Fitz loves when the Niners come to town; over his 10 year career he's posted five 100-yard games and scored six times in home games against San Francisco. He may be slipping down the Cardinals' passing game pecking order, but don't dock him due to Drew Stanton helming the club rather than Carson Palmer; after all, he's succeeded with worse.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI SF 003400000 ***
Drew Stanton isn't digging as deep into the Arizona receiver depth as Carson Palmer did, which dings Brown's fantasy value. So does a matchup with a San Francisco secondary that has yet to allow a wideout to top 60 yards against them this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE John Carlson, ARI SF 003300000 ***
The Cards have yet to generate 100 yards among its tight ends this season; the Niners have allowed but 60. Nothing to see here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI SF 2122 ***
Catanzaro has multiple field goals in each game this season... but the Niners have allowed but one trey all year. In what will likely be a low-scoring affair, best side with the defense and seek your fantasy kicks elsewhere.

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO 27-31
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 260,2
RB Steven Jackson 60,1 2-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 30 5-30
WR Devin Hester 2-30
WR Julio Jones 5-80
WR Roddy White 6-80,1
PK Matt Bryant 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It was bound to happen eventually and it is not like the Saints don't already have a comfortable three game lead. It was hard to see where a loss was going to happen because the Falcons schedule is so easy that only eventual malaise allowed the loss.

Matt Ryan has been a near lock to score multiple touchdowns each week and he comes off a season best 411 yards in New Orleans. He's averaged 308 yards each week and generally plays bigger the tougher the matchup. The incoming Cards don't sport much offense but they have a decent defense that will make the Falcons work for the win. As good as the Cardinals have been versus the run, Ryan will need to pass to finish out this game in the win column.

Michael Turner comes off a horrible showing with only 15 yards on 13 runs in New Orleans and he's been pretty bad in three of the last four games that say him remain below 60 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers has offered some help as the third down back but overall this rushing attack is only getting worse as the season progresses. Turner should remain fresh later in the year because he doesn't hardly have to run at all each game. He just takes the handoff and tries to fall throught the offensive line.

Tony Gonzalez lulled them to sleep with three straight games with just 42 yards or less and no scores but then turned in 11 receptions for 122 yards and two scores last week. The oddity about Gonzo is that hels scored five times this year and four went in road games. His top three yardage games were also away from Atlanta.

The fantasy world held their breath when Julio Jones left the Saints game with a knee problem but he return later in the second half and ended with four catches for 75 yards. There has been no talk at all about the knee and since he returned to the game, he's expected to be completely fine again this week. Roddy White is usually the star at home but comes off a 114 yard effort in New Orleans.

The Cardinals defense has been top ten in most categories but their woeful offense is no help and the Falcons at home after a loss should be even better than the last few weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 3 17 6 2 3 16
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 8 6 18 2 11 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL TB 0000025021 ****
After facing second- and third-string QBs to start the season, the Bucs might be shocked to see Ryan. He's taken Tampa for 300 yards or multiple TDs in five of the last six meetings, including both last year; don't look for Lovie's Tampa-2 to fare much better.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Steven Jackson, ATL TB 601000000 ***
Jackson has been topping out around a dozen carries and 50 or so yards--hardly fantasy-helper numbers. You could expect an uptick against a decimated Bucs d-line that's held DeAngelo Williams and Zac Stacy to 72 and 71 yards, respectively, but you're still barely on the fringe of fantasy respectability, hoping for a pass interference call in the end zone to set you up for a one-yard fall into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL TB 3001100000 ***
At best Rodgers is sharing the smaller half of the Falcons' backfield pie with the likes of Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman. And while Tampa's defensive front has been hit hard with injuries that's still not enough to suggest he'll be much of a fantasy helper this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL TB 0081101000 ***
Jones missed both ends of this season series last year, but he's scored or topped 100 yards (or both) in three of four career meetings with the Bucs and has scored or topped 100 yards in each game thus far this season. Sounds like a trend worth riding.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Roddy White, ATL TB 004500000 *
White has topped 75 yards against the Bucs just once in their past 16 meetings, and he hasn't hit that mark yet this season. He has, however, found the end zone and he scored the only time he faced Tampa Bay last season. He's clearly running as WR2 to Julio Jones, but this isn't a bad situation to be running WR2 in.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Harry Douglas, ATL TB 004400000 ***
Douglas blew up the Bucs with 6-134-1 and 7-149-1 last season, but Julio Jones missed both outings and Roddy White was available for just one. With both Falcons studs back Douglas is clearly the third wheel, so he's a fringe fantasy option at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Levine Toilolo, ATL TB 003200000 ****
Given Toilolo's role in this offense you'll need a TD to wring fantasy value out of him. It's something Tony Gonzalez couldn't pull off last year and it's not something you should bank on here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Bryant, ATL TB 3333 ****
Only two teams have allowed more field goal attempts thus far this year than the Bucs, so Bryant should have the opportunity to swing his leg this week.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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