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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: ARI 14, ATL 27 (Line: ATL by 10)

Players Updated: Julio Jones, Michael Turner

Players to Watch: Julio Jones

The 4-5 Cardinals are on a five game losing free-fall while the 8-1 Falcons return home after their only loss on the year. With the offensive woes of the Cards, a trap game here seem impossible.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL -----
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL -----
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Larry Fitzgerald 7-90,1

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals come off their bye still wondering how it all went so wrong so fast. Five losses in a row and chances are this could continue. If the visiting Rams win in week 12, the Cardinals may actually go from 4-0 to 4-12. the last five games failed to produce more than 17 points. That's not going to get it done in Atlanta.

Kevin Kolb has been out since week six and early reports have him missing this week as well. John Skelton's been solid with yardage in his three starts with each topping 260 yards but he's only thrown two scores in that time. The Cardinals only scored 10 passing touchdowns this year and three of those came in the Dolphins matchup. Skelton did throw for 262 yards and a score in Minnesota so he's had some impact on the road. Not enough of course, but some.

Beanie Wells is slated to return in week 12 and claims that he has really gotten healthy with the time off and vows to return with a vengeance. Not going to take too much to look better than what's been happening in his absence. LaRod Stephens-Howling scored in two of the last three games but only posted 38 total yards against the 49ers and 59 yards at Green Bay. When Wells returns, Stephens-Howling returns to the special teams role he's had his entire career.

Larry Fitzgerald scored for the fourth time this year but his stats are well short of expectations and not changing much with Skelton instead of Kolb. These last three weeks have only seen him with no more htan 74 yards and the trip to MInnesota was just 29 yards on four catches. Andre Roberts' improved in those three games with never fewer than 65 yards in a game. Overall - there are just two wideouts of any note on this team and the rushing game is even more broken than usual.

The problem here, besides the Cardinals having nearly no offense, is that the Falcons best strength goes against the Cardinals only strength - wide receivers. This game is a hope for trash time and garbage yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 19 32 10 24 29 12
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 14 24 4 27 2 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB David Johnson, ARI @SEA 5005300000 ***
The Cardinals limp into Week 17 with a trip to Seattle. He finished with 71 rushing yards and a TD in that one, adding 41 yards on three grabs. Johnson has one rushing and receiving touchdown apiece since Week 10. The Seahawks have given up a mess of points to pass-catching backs, so let's see if Arizona can find ways to get him the ball in space.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @SEA 005600000 ***
While he hasn't scored in more than a month now, Fitz has seen at least eight targets in each of the past three games. . He has produced no fewer than 10.5 PPR points in eight of the last nine contests. He wasn't a factor in the Week 4 loss to Seattle, but that was in the middle of his early-season slump as he battled injury and quarterback troubles. Play him only as a flex in cavernous PPR setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Trent Sherfield, ARI @SEA 003400000 ***
Regardless of the matchup, which isn't great, Sherfield is not a playable option in any fantasy system.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Zane Gonzalez, ARI @SEA 2200 ***
No writeup available

Atlanta Falcons
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @KC 40-24 10 @NO 27-31
2 DEN 27-21 11 ARI -----
3 @SD 27-3 12 @TB -----
4 CAR 30-28 13 NO -----
5 @WAS 24-17 14 @CAR -----
6 OAK 23-20 15 NYG -----
7 BYE ----- 16 @DET -----
8 @PHI 30-17 17 TB -----
9 DAL 19-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ATL vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Ryan 260,2
QB Matt Schaub 240,2
WR Julio Jones 5-80
WR Mohamed Sanu 3-30
TE Logan Paulsen 4-50

Pregame Notes: It was bound to happen eventually and it is not like the Saints don't already have a comfortable three game lead. It was hard to see where a loss was going to happen because the Falcons schedule is so easy that only eventual malaise allowed the loss.

Matt Ryan has been a near lock to score multiple touchdowns each week and he comes off a season best 411 yards in New Orleans. He's averaged 308 yards each week and generally plays bigger the tougher the matchup. The incoming Cards don't sport much offense but they have a decent defense that will make the Falcons work for the win. As good as the Cardinals have been versus the run, Ryan will need to pass to finish out this game in the win column.

Michael Turner comes off a horrible showing with only 15 yards on 13 runs in New Orleans and he's been pretty bad in three of the last four games that say him remain below 60 yards. Jacquizz Rodgers has offered some help as the third down back but overall this rushing attack is only getting worse as the season progresses. Turner should remain fresh later in the year because he doesn't hardly have to run at all each game. He just takes the handoff and tries to fall throught the offensive line.

Tony Gonzalez lulled them to sleep with three straight games with just 42 yards or less and no scores but then turned in 11 receptions for 122 yards and two scores last week. The oddity about Gonzo is that hels scored five times this year and four went in road games. His top three yardage games were also away from Atlanta.

The fantasy world held their breath when Julio Jones left the Saints game with a knee problem but he return later in the second half and ended with four catches for 75 yards. There has been no talk at all about the knee and since he returned to the game, he's expected to be completely fine again this week. Roddy White is usually the star at home but comes off a 114 yard effort in New Orleans.

The Cardinals defense has been top ten in most categories but their woeful offense is no help and the Falcons at home after a loss should be even better than the last few weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 3 17 6 2 3 16
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 8 6 18 2 11 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Ryan, ATL @TB 0000030030 ***
Ryan dropped the hammer on this defense in Week 6, going for 354 yards and three TD passes without an interception. He has been good for at least 23.9 points in each of his last three games but has failed to return to that 30-point barrier in all but one game since the last time he faced Tampa Bay. Nevertheless, he's a strong play in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Brian Hill, ATL @TB 500000000 *
Hill ripped off 115 yards in Week 16 and ran only eight times. He was targeted once without a reception. The Falcons are not a successful rushing offense, at least in any sense of consistency, and Tampa is so bad vs. both RBs and WRs, it comes down to how Atlanta chooses to attack. Look for safer plays, but he could be used in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Julio Jones, ATL @TB 0081101000 ***
Jones has mustered double figures in PPR scoring in all but one game this year, and he has scored four times in the past three games. Tampa Bay afforded him 143 yards on 10 grabs in the first meeting, and the veteran should be healthier after being a game-time call last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL @TB 004701000 ***
The rookie scored his first touchdown in five weeks against the Panthers in Week 16 and has nine on the year. The volume hasn't been there since Week 12, so he isn't much of a factor without scoring. The Buccaneers have been exceptionally generous to the position in 2018, yielding 20 TDs to receivers -- only San Fran and Oakland have been worse. Translation: There is upside for a score, but expecting it vs. hoping for it is the difference. Ridley is a flex gamble in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Hooper, ATL @TB 005601000 ***
The Week 6 meeting went like this: 10 targets, nine catches, 71 yards, one TD. Not too shabby. In fact, it was his best day of the year in either primary scoring format. The Buccaneers were abused by TEs all season, and gamers should feel confident playing Hooper even though he has been extremely quiet of late.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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