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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: CHI 13, SF 17 (Line: SF by 4.5)

Players Updated: Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffrey, Alex Smith

Players to Watch: Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Jason Campbell

The 7-2 Bears come off their loss to the Texans and head to meet the 6-2-1 49ers who are fresh off their tie with the Rams. Two great defenses meet but the 49ers are at home and the Bears are likely without Jay Cutler.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF -----
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN -----
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Bears have to be concerned now that Jay Cutler has suffered yet another concussion and will at the least be doubtful this week. He has a history of them back to college and the Bears cannot afford to be without him. Last season was going well until Cutler was lost in week 11. They strung five consecutive losses after that while struggling to mount any offense. With only a one game lead on the Packers who already beat them, the season is in jeopardy without Cutler.

Last week Jason Campbell came in once Cutler was out and completed 11 of 19 passes for 94 yards. He was wise enough to complete six passes to Brandon Marshall for 84 yards in the second half. Campbell's a veteran who was never quite good enough to be the solution as a starter. One game out and while he never scored, he gives some promise that it may not be quite as "crash and burn" as it was last year.

Matt Forte is a concern this week. He's been plenty productive almost every week but only managed 39 yards on 16 carries when faced with a formidable defense of the Texans. This week he is on the road to San Francisco where the #1 defense against running backs waits. Bad timing if the passing game is also likely to drop a notch this week.

What to expect from the offense with Campbell under center is hard to know other than it will not be as good as it was with Cutler obviously. Campbell spent his half of playing time looking for Marshall. He threw ten passes his way so over half of his throws went to the only receiver that matters for the Bears. Marshall merely has all but one of the wide receiver touchdowns for the Bears and no other wideout has produced more than 50 yards in any game. Marshall already has six 100 yard games and is already a marked man by the defense. Without Cutler, he's going to have to work even harder because without him the Bears have very nearly nothing.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 24 19 22 32 5 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 3 1 13 7 4 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI @ARI 30000024011 ***
Arizona has yet to give up a rushing touchdown to quarterbacks. "Trubearsky" can do some things with his legs, so this one is mildly intriguing. The Cards have provided just average fantasy figures to the position, despite allowing the sixth-most yards per game (304.5).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI @ARI 8014300000 ***
Arizona has granted the most fantasy points in both main scoring formats, allowing the third-most rushing yards, fourth-highest receiving yardage, and a touchdown every 15.2 touches. Howard could be in for a big day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tarik Cohen, CHI @ARI 2003200000 ***
Cohen has been slow to get it going in the first few games. He has a great matchup -- the best, in fact -- this week, but his limited role thus far suggests he's nothing more than a wild gamble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson II, CHI @ARI 0081000000 ***
None of the 27 receptions faced by the Cardinals as found the end zone. This is a mostly negative matchup for fantasy purposes, but having only two games of data makes it tougher to gauge and place much weight in being accurate info. Washington's aerial game in Week 1 was pathetic, which continued into Week 2. The Rams found success yardage-wise but failed to score. Robinson should be a sound play, though he comes with mild risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taylor Gabriel, CHI @ARI 2004400000 ***
The smurphy slot receiver has 12 targets and nine catches in two games, but he has mustered only 85 yards. Arizona has given up 27 receptions (16th) for 368 yards (12th) but no touchdowns to receivers through two contests. Only three other teams haven't given up a score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Trey Burton, CHI @ARI 004301000 ***
The curious case of the Cardinals defense of tight ends ... Despite giving up only seven catches for 77 yards, this defense has permitted a touchdown every 3.5 catches (second-highest ratio for teams that have allowed TEs).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, CHI @ARI 1133 ***
Kickers have attempted only one field goal and three extra points against the Cardinals in the last two games, but that PAT figure should be higher since the Rams kept going for 2-point conversions after Johnny Hekker filled for Greg Zuerlein and kicked once.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL 24-24
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL -----
5 BUF 45-3 14 MIA -----
6 NYG 3-26 15 @NE -----
7 SEA 13-6 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI 24-3 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
WR Pierre Garcon 2-40
PK Robbie Gould 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams clearly took the 49ers by surprise last week and just to make it more surreal, David Akers missed a 41 yard field goal that would have won the game. The 49ers also lost Alex Smith to a concussion but Colin Kaepernick played reasonably well and should have had the credit for a comeback win were it not for Akers.

Kaepernick completed 11 of 17 for 117 yards against an inspired Rams secondary and he kept plays alive with eight runs for 66 yards and one touchdown. While Smith does have a much better command of the offense, Kaepernick's running adding a new and valuable feature to the offense. The 49ers are hopeful that Smith will be able to play this week since he has no history of concussions, already feels good and it is a Monday night game.

Frank Gore oddly plays better when faced with a good defense. He rushed for 131 yards against the Seahawks but then only 55 yards in Arizona. Last week he scored once and gained 115 total yards on the Rams. Gore underwent x-rays after the game but his problem was never disclosed and he's expected to be fine but it bears watching in practice this week.

Vernon Davis is growing dissatisfied and disillusioned with his current role as the decoy player. More accurately, he is the one that defenses are intentionally focusing on and Smith has been unwilling (or just did not need) to force feed a covered Smith with other weapons to use. Davis hasn't scored since week three and only once gained more than 40 yards in the last five games. That's quite a drop from starting the year with four scores in the first three games.

Michael Crabtree has no complaints because he is the one benefiting from the secondary keying on Davis. Crabtree scored three times in just the last two games and has been noticeably better this year. Unfortunately, that mostly applies only when the 49ers are facing a weaker secondary. Crabtree remains the primary receiver but even he only gets around six targets in most games.

The health of Frank Gore and Alex Smith matter most this week with a tough Bears defense showing up. This is bound to be a low-scoring affair with no players turning in big stats.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 11 16 20 15 16 25
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 1 4 8 17 5 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @KC 0000031023 ***
Jimmy G. has started off on the wrong foot for fantasy purposes -- a small trend that could change against the worst defense of his position. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 438 yards per game passing and has just one interception vs. six TD passes. A rushing score removed, this is still the best matchup to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Breida, SF @KC 5013201000 ***
Breida is just so much more explosive than Alfred Morris and it was on full display in Week 2. Kansas City has given up only 123 rushing yards on 30 carries, including one TD, yet this defense has been favorable to running backs through the air (No. 3 in receptions allowed, 1st in yardage).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, SF @KC 4002200000 ***
This matchup is just so much more appealing to Matt Breida -- a pass-catching, explosive type -- than the plodding Morris. On the ground, the position has managed just 123 yards and a TD on 30 carries. That's the eighth-fewest yards allowed and only 16th for rushing TD efficiency. Furthermore, if KC jumps out to a big lead, San Fran will abandon the ground game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, SF @KC 005700000 ***
Garcon could be a fine play with the amount of passing expected from the 49ers to keep pace with the high-powered Chiefs. The KC defense has given up the most WR receptions, sixth-most yards and a pair of TDs per game in the first two weeks of the year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dante Pettis, SF @KC 003500000 ***
The rookie caught a TD pass in the opening week, one of his three total receptions on seven targets. The matchup is wonderful, and KC could force the Niners to throw a bunch, so there's that if the desire gamble is in your system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE George Kittle, SF @KC 005801000 ***
KC is a top-three matchup in both scoring formats and has given up the fifth-most catches, resulting in the third-most yards, with one score. Kittle was great in Week 1 and tapered off last weekend. He has appeal given the matchup and likely need for SF to pace KC's offense.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, SF @KC 1133 ***
One extra point in four tries and half of the four field goal kicks against the Chiefs were missed, which takes what could be as high as the 17th-best matchup to the eighth-worst. Consider it closer to a neutral rating.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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