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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: CHI 13, SF 17 (Line: SF by 4.5)

Players Updated: Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffrey, Alex Smith

Players to Watch: Alex Smith/Colin Kaepernick, Frank Gore, Jason Campbell

The 7-2 Bears come off their loss to the Texans and head to meet the 6-2-1 49ers who are fresh off their tie with the Rams. Two great defenses meet but the 49ers are at home and the Bears are likely without Jay Cutler.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF -----
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN -----
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI @ SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler
RB Michael Bush 10
RB Matt Forte 70 3-20
WR Earl Bennett 3-30
WR Devin Hester 2-30
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Brandon Marshall 7-80,1
PK Robbie Gould 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears have to be concerned now that Jay Cutler has suffered yet another concussion and will at the least be doubtful this week. He has a history of them back to college and the Bears cannot afford to be without him. Last season was going well until Cutler was lost in week 11. They strung five consecutive losses after that while struggling to mount any offense. With only a one game lead on the Packers who already beat them, the season is in jeopardy without Cutler.

Last week Jason Campbell came in once Cutler was out and completed 11 of 19 passes for 94 yards. He was wise enough to complete six passes to Brandon Marshall for 84 yards in the second half. Campbell's a veteran who was never quite good enough to be the solution as a starter. One game out and while he never scored, he gives some promise that it may not be quite as "crash and burn" as it was last year.

Matt Forte is a concern this week. He's been plenty productive almost every week but only managed 39 yards on 16 carries when faced with a formidable defense of the Texans. This week he is on the road to San Francisco where the #1 defense against running backs waits. Bad timing if the passing game is also likely to drop a notch this week.

What to expect from the offense with Campbell under center is hard to know other than it will not be as good as it was with Cutler obviously. Campbell spent his half of playing time looking for Marshall. He threw ten passes his way so over half of his throws went to the only receiver that matters for the Bears. Marshall merely has all but one of the wide receiver touchdowns for the Bears and no other wideout has produced more than 50 yards in any game. Marshall already has six 100 yard games and is already a marked man by the defense. Without Cutler, he's going to have to work even harder because without him the Bears have very nearly nothing.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 24 19 22 32 5 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 3 1 13 7 4 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, CHI @DET 0000024021 ***
Sure, the Lions held Cutler to 150 and 1 in the earlier meeting. But Detroit has now allowed 30-plus points in four of the last five and 24 or more in seven straight and really only cares about getting their passing game some records. In other words, defense is even less of a priority than usual. With the Bears in must-win mode and Matt Forte banged up, Cutler might actually put up decent numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, CHI @DET 8015300000 ***
Forte says he'll play on his ankle injury in this must-win game for the Bears, and he has historically fared quite well against Detroit: 100 yards from scrimmage and/or a touchdown in each of his nine career meetings with the Lions. It would be nice, however, to see him get some practice time in this week before trusting him with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI @DET 0081201000 ***
Marshall needs 34 yards to reach 1,500; that's pretty much a given. In fact, 34 catches for the guy who could finish the season with 100 more catches than the next closest Bear wideout wouldn't be all that shocking. The Bears need to win, which means a heavy dose of Marshall once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI @DET 004501000 ***
If there's to be any leftovers after Brandon Marshall takes his 20 catches off the top, they'll go to Jeffery. Considering the Falcons saw both their talented wideouts find the end zone last week, Jeffery's not a bad play in a must-win game for the Bears.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, CHI @DET 004400000 ***
Bennett was held to just one catch in the earlier meeting with Philly, and Bear Pascoe stole his touchdown in that game. The Eagles haven't given up a TE TD in more than a month, yet another trend that makes Bennett a difficult at best fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Steve Maneri, CHI @DET 001100000 ***
With Tony Moeaki hurt, Maneri is the tight end of record in Kansas City. Or so we think; he hasn't seen a target since mid-October.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Olindo Mare, CHI @DET 2233 ***
The Bears need to win, the Lions give up tons of points, and the weather won't be a factor. Not a bad combo if you're in need of a kicker this week.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL 24-24
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI -----
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO -----
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL -----
5 BUF 45-3 14 MIA -----
6 NYG 3-26 15 @NE -----
7 SEA 13-6 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI 24-3 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SF vs CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Colin Kaepernick
RB Frank Gore 70 3-20
RB Kendall Hunter 20 2-10
WR Anquan Boldin 4-40
WR Michael Crabtree 4-60,1
WR Mario Manningham 2-30
WR Randy Moss 1-20
TE Vernon Davis 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Rams clearly took the 49ers by surprise last week and just to make it more surreal, David Akers missed a 41 yard field goal that would have won the game. The 49ers also lost Alex Smith to a concussion but Colin Kaepernick played reasonably well and should have had the credit for a comeback win were it not for Akers.

Kaepernick completed 11 of 17 for 117 yards against an inspired Rams secondary and he kept plays alive with eight runs for 66 yards and one touchdown. While Smith does have a much better command of the offense, Kaepernick's running adding a new and valuable feature to the offense. The 49ers are hopeful that Smith will be able to play this week since he has no history of concussions, already feels good and it is a Monday night game.

Frank Gore oddly plays better when faced with a good defense. He rushed for 131 yards against the Seahawks but then only 55 yards in Arizona. Last week he scored once and gained 115 total yards on the Rams. Gore underwent x-rays after the game but his problem was never disclosed and he's expected to be fine but it bears watching in practice this week.

Vernon Davis is growing dissatisfied and disillusioned with his current role as the decoy player. More accurately, he is the one that defenses are intentionally focusing on and Smith has been unwilling (or just did not need) to force feed a covered Smith with other weapons to use. Davis hasn't scored since week three and only once gained more than 40 yards in the last five games. That's quite a drop from starting the year with four scores in the first three games.

Michael Crabtree has no complaints because he is the one benefiting from the secondary keying on Davis. Crabtree scored three times in just the last two games and has been noticeably better this year. Unfortunately, that mostly applies only when the 49ers are facing a weaker secondary. Crabtree remains the primary receiver but even he only gets around six targets in most games.

The health of Frank Gore and Alex Smith matter most this week with a tough Bears defense showing up. This is bound to be a low-scoring affair with no players turning in big stats.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 11 16 20 15 16 25
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 1 4 8 17 5 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colin Kaepernick, SF ARI 40100022020 ****
Kaepernick could use a good game here after only 244 yards and one score in Seattle last week. Alex Smith tossed three scores and 232 yards in the win in Arizona. Figure on Kaepernick having a decent showing here and a good shot at a rushing score. He won't get pulled from this one that they must win and he needs the reps anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, SF ARI 6001100000 **
Gore's been less effective in the second half of the year and only managed 16-55 in the Arizona meeting with the Cards. The problem here could be a big 49ers lead which leads to less use of Gore and possibly yanking him later in the game knowing they need him more for the playoffs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LaMichael James, SF ARI 4002100000 **
James has only seen about 8 carries per week as a high but that could go up this week against the Cardinals. That still won't make him anything more than a really risky flex play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, SF ARI 005701000 ****
Crabtree enjoyed one of his best showings on the year when he caught 5-72 with two TDs in Arizona during week eight. He's always been a safe bet at home where four of his last five TDs happened.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, SF ARI 007800000 ***
The veteran needs 79 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the season. Maybe the Ravens will force-feed him to get there, but that's hardly enough to make him a fantasy must-start against a pretty good Cincy secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randy Moss, SF ARI 003400000 ****
Moss steps into the #2 role now that Manningham is out but that is not likely to mean too much. Manningham never gained more than 72 yards as the flanker and scored only once all year. Worth watching to see what changes if any are made but not worth relying on for a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, SF ARI 002200000 *
Davis needs to be more involved now that Manningham is gone but he only accounted for 2-34 in the last meeting with the Cards. He's only averaged one catch over the last five weeks and never scored. Fortunately the Cards are weak against the position on the road where three of their last four opponents scored used a TE.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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