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David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: CIN 20, KC 10 (Line: CIN by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Andy Dalton, Jamaal Charles

The 4-5 Bengals hit the road where they are only 2-2 and the 1-8 Chiefs still have not won in Kansas City with an 0-4 mark. This game is really little more than Jamaal Charles vs. Andy Dalton. Anything else is just to keep the defenses honest. Sadly for the Chiefs, the Bengals are not nearly good enough to take this one lightly.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 10 190,1
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
WR A.J. Green 7-110,2
WR Mohamed Sanu 3-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-50
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The win against the Giants ended a four game losing streak and ended the most difficult part of the season schedule until the final two weeks when they'll head to Pittsburgh and then host the Ravens. These next three weeks are all games they can win and would bring them perilously close to a .500 season by the end of the year. The reality here is that the defense remains less than stellar unless facing a struggling offense though - just like KC, OAK and SD.

Andy Dalton's passed for a score in every game since the opener and comes off a season best four touchdowns on the Giants. That gives him 18 passing scores on the year and half his efforts end in high passing yardage. Dalton has yet to produce fewer than two passing scores when not facing an elite defense. He threw eight touchdowns in just the last three road games.

The rushing effort is apparently forever stuck in second hear with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for around 50 to 60 yards every week no matter how bad or good the opponent is. His yearly average is exactly 60 yards per game and he's not only scored just once in the last six games, he gets almost no work as a receiver. BGE is not only below average and of no advantage, he is still the best they have.

There is no question that A.J. Green is THE best receiver this year. He's merely scored at least once in each of the last eight games. While he commands the best coverage the defense can give, he still usually ends up with around seven catches for about 100 yards and a touchdown every week. Even if the defense tries to match a particular cornerback on him, the Bengals will move Green all over the formation to get him a better matchup.

Mohamed Sanu comes off his first touchdown but still has not caught more than his four catches for 47 yards against the Giants. He's elbowing out Armon Binns for what is essentially the #4 receiver role. Andrew Hawkins finally scored last week as well but he's been held below 50 yards every game since week three and even against the Giants only recorded three catches for 16 yards.

Jermaine Gresham's had a season worst 15 yards on three catches last week though he scored a touchdown. Gresham has been very inconsistent with two sub-20 yard games sandwiching a 108 yard effort versus the Broncos. He's there when Dalton needs him but isn't good enough to matter every week.

The Chiefs defense has to be emotionally spent losing a close one in Pittsburgh in bad weather and has a shorter week to prepare. Sadly the bigger weakness is the rushing defense which mirrors the weakness of the Cincy offense. This all comes down to what Dalton can accomplish as it always does. Fortunately it never takes many points to beat the Chiefs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 12 29 3 17 15 14
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 20 23 6 6 29 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @PIT 0000027021 ***
The Steelers have given up 300-plus passing yards in three straight games and multiple touchdown tosses in eight of the last nine. That stretch includes Dalton's 302 and 2 (with a rushing TD to boot), though in two subsequent games Andy has a total of 263 and 2. The tiebreaker is Dalton's penchant for coming up small in big games, so while there's upside in the matchup you'll likely want to find fantasy help elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN @PIT 9001100000 ****
Hill averaged almost six yards a carry in limited work against the Steelers in the earlier matchup; since then he's racked up a pair of 140-yard games--still at a six-yards per carry pace. Hill is on a roll, and while Pittsburgh has been relatively solid against the run they've shown a weakness for bigger backs like Arian Foster, Mark Ingram... and, this week, Hill.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @PIT 2003200000 ***
Gio has become the complimentary guy, and in a tough matchup he's a far riskier fantasy play than the Bengals' current bell cow, Jeremy Hill.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @PIT 005801000 *
Green gashed the Steelers for 11-224-1 just three weeks ago. He's banged up coming out of the win over Denver, but all indications are he'll play--and against a secondary that's allowed three 130-plus yard receivers in the past month, all indications are he'll perform well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN @PIT 004500000 ***
It was all AJ Green the last time Cincy faced Pittsburgh, and that's become typical of the Bengals passing game as Sanu hasn't scored since Week 12 or topped 50 yards since Week 9. He's never broken 40 yards against the Steelers; no reason to believe that changes here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN @PIT 005601000 ***
There's hope for Gresham this week against a Steelers defense that's allowed six TE TDs in the past eight games. Gresham has scored in two of the last three, including last week and the earlier matchup with Pittsburgh. At this juncture there's no WR2 to AJ Green, so Gresham could fill that opening.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN @PIT 2222 ***
The Nuge is coming off his best two-game stretch of the season; the Steelers have allowed six field goals in their last two. Almost makes you believe he's a safe bet to improve upon his three point performance in the earlier meeting with Pittsburgh in Week 14. Almost.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 70,1 3-20
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-60

Pregame Notes: Tough loss in Pittsburgh in a game they nearly won and that would have been a trap game but still something to end the six game losing streak. Playing so hard and coming so close could lead to an emotional let down this week that was already short from playing on Monday night. Bottom line here - the offense has not scored more than one touchdown in any of the last five games.

Brady Quinn was cleared to play from his concussion but no early word was given by HC Romeo Crennel if he was going to make the change to Quinn over Matt Cassel and in reality - will it really matter? All Crennel wants to do is look like he is still trying. History says all that Quinn will do is make Dwayne Bowe's numbers suffer while still losing games. His lone start was in Tampa Bay where he passed for only 180 yards and two interceptions. even Christian Ponder threw for 250 yards on the Bucs who average allowing 330 pass yards per game. Quinn - just the 180. I'll assume that Cassel gets the start and adjust it later if warranted as if it matters.

In a clear sign that the Chiefs have lost all sense of what is needed to win a game, they gave Jamaal Charles only five carries when the Raiders visited, then only 12 in San Diego. In Pittsburgh against a great defense in the driving rain they finally fed it to him 23 times for 100 yards and one score. Whenever Charles is given more than 16 carries, he's been a big contributor with four scores and three games over 100 rush yards. But that has only happened four times this year. Considering the decline of the passing game, it is a shock they don't take a page from the Panthers old playbook and just run every play.

A healthy Peyton Hillis is getting 7+ carries per game now despite the fact he's no where near the runner that Charles is. Last week it was ten runs for 30 yards. In San Diego, he gained only 14 yards on seven carries. OC Brian Daboll uses Hillis like he was his brother-in-law and he just wants his wife to shut up already. Charles can handle a much heavier workload but they won't usually give it to him.

Tony Moeaki comes off a season high 68 yards on three catches in Pittsburgh and he managed 57 yards on four receptions the previous week but he's never scored and spent the rest of the year with less than 20 yards in games.

The wideouts are limited to Dwayne Bowe who has the only touchdowns by a wideout and only games with more than 65 receiving yards. Bowe caught another score last week but it was called back on an unrelated penalty. He has remained well about 60 yards in every game except when Quinn started and he was limited to just 25 yards on three catches. If the Chief switch to Quinn this week, Bowe should wear a T-shirt that reads "I am SO out of here".

Jon Baldwin not only had his traditional one catch last week, but he dropped a long pass last week and later left the game with a head/neck injury. Bottom line - only Charles really matters in this offense and only Bowe matters as a receiver unless Quinn starts. Then it is just Charles being under-used.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 1 32 29 20 26
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 15 26 14 25 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chase Daniel, KC SD 0000018011 *
Update: Daniel will get the start in a must-win game due to Alex Smith's lacerated spleen. There's very little to like here from a fantasy perspective.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC SD 11023200000 ***
Charles has triple-digit combo yardage and at least one touchdown in five of his last seven meetings with the Chargers, including the one earlier this season. However, Charles hasn't carried the ball more than a dozen times since Week 12 so you run the risk of Andy Reid criminally underusing Charles yet again. However, Charles' high ceiling makes the risk worthwhile.
Update: Charles practiced on a limited basis all week and is listed as questionable, but with the Chiefs down to their second-string quarterback they'll need to lean even more heavily on Charles... assuming he can hold up to the workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC SD 004600000 **
Bowe scored each of the last two times the Chargers came to town, but it's been more than a year since a Chiefs' wideout found the end zone and there's little evidence Bowe will suddenly stumble upon it this week.
Update: Bowe missed a couple practices due to injury, plus he'll now be catching balls from Chase Daniels. As if his fantasy prospects could get any dimmer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC SD 004500000 ***
Wilson has emerged to take his spin as the Chiefs' WR2, which is the fantasy equivalent of being the vice-president of Hair Club for Men. Only it probably has more benefits.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC SD 004501000 **
The Chargers have given up just three TE TDs on the year, so they're far from an easy mark. Kelce racked up 33 yards in the earlier meeting with San Diego, which isn't all that impressive. And he's still sharing looks with Anthony Fasano, completing the hat trick of frustration that conspire to leave Kelce out of your fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC SD 1133 ***
Santos' two most productive games were a dozen last week and 11 the last time he faced the Chargers. With the Chiefs still playing for something, he's as good a bet as any for a solid kicker outing.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t