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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: CIN 20, KC 10 (Line: CIN by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Andy Dalton, Jamaal Charles

The 4-5 Bengals hit the road where they are only 2-2 and the 1-8 Chiefs still have not won in Kansas City with an 0-4 mark. This game is really little more than Jamaal Charles vs. Andy Dalton. Anything else is just to keep the defenses honest. Sadly for the Chiefs, the Bengals are not nearly good enough to take this one lightly.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 10 190,1
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
WR A.J. Green 7-110,2
WR Greg Little 3-40
WR Mohamed Sanu 3-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-50
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The win against the Giants ended a four game losing streak and ended the most difficult part of the season schedule until the final two weeks when they'll head to Pittsburgh and then host the Ravens. These next three weeks are all games they can win and would bring them perilously close to a .500 season by the end of the year. The reality here is that the defense remains less than stellar unless facing a struggling offense though - just like KC, OAK and SD.

Andy Dalton's passed for a score in every game since the opener and comes off a season best four touchdowns on the Giants. That gives him 18 passing scores on the year and half his efforts end in high passing yardage. Dalton has yet to produce fewer than two passing scores when not facing an elite defense. He threw eight touchdowns in just the last three road games.

The rushing effort is apparently forever stuck in second hear with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for around 50 to 60 yards every week no matter how bad or good the opponent is. His yearly average is exactly 60 yards per game and he's not only scored just once in the last six games, he gets almost no work as a receiver. BGE is not only below average and of no advantage, he is still the best they have.

There is no question that A.J. Green is THE best receiver this year. He's merely scored at least once in each of the last eight games. While he commands the best coverage the defense can give, he still usually ends up with around seven catches for about 100 yards and a touchdown every week. Even if the defense tries to match a particular cornerback on him, the Bengals will move Green all over the formation to get him a better matchup.

Mohamed Sanu comes off his first touchdown but still has not caught more than his four catches for 47 yards against the Giants. He's elbowing out Armon Binns for what is essentially the #4 receiver role. Andrew Hawkins finally scored last week as well but he's been held below 50 yards every game since week three and even against the Giants only recorded three catches for 16 yards.

Jermaine Gresham's had a season worst 15 yards on three catches last week though he scored a touchdown. Gresham has been very inconsistent with two sub-20 yard games sandwiching a 108 yard effort versus the Broncos. He's there when Dalton needs him but isn't good enough to matter every week.

The Chiefs defense has to be emotionally spent losing a close one in Pittsburgh in bad weather and has a shorter week to prepare. Sadly the bigger weakness is the rushing defense which mirrors the weakness of the Cincy offense. This all comes down to what Dalton can accomplish as it always does. Fortunately it never takes many points to beat the Chiefs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 12 29 3 17 15 14
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 20 23 6 6 29 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @HOU 0000023022 ***
Dalton bounced back from his choke-job against Cleveland with three TDs in New Orleans. A Houston defense that's allowed multiple passing scores in seven of eight and 250-plus yards in six straight should allow Dalton to squeeze out another fantasy helper this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN @HOU 5002200000 ***
Hill is more than capable of carrying the load himself if Giovani Bernard can't go again; even if Gio's back, Hill has carved out enough of a share of Cincy's backfield touches to warrant fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @HOU 4003200000 ****
You'd like to think Gio returns at full go here, but he'll likely have to split the workload as he eases himself back into the mix. Still, it's a favorable enough matchup that sharing touches or no Bernard is back in your starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @HOU 0061101000 ***
Green has scored twice in three games since returning to action; safe to say he's regained his every-week-starter card.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN @HOU 005601000 **
The Texans have allowed multiple receivers to either score and/or top 90 yards in three of four and five of the last seven, so even with AJ Green back in the mix Sanu warrants fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN @HOU 005400000 ***
The Bengals--and fantasy owners--rediscovered Gresham just in time to have him face one of the tougher tight end matchups on the board. Don't chase last week's two TDs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN @HOU 1122 ***
Nugent has been good not great; the Texans, on the other hand, have been stingy in allowing just one game with double-digit points over the past two months. You can probably do better, but at least with Nugent you're reasonably safe.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 70,1 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 5-70
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-60
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20,1

Pregame Notes: Tough loss in Pittsburgh in a game they nearly won and that would have been a trap game but still something to end the six game losing streak. Playing so hard and coming so close could lead to an emotional let down this week that was already short from playing on Monday night. Bottom line here - the offense has not scored more than one touchdown in any of the last five games.

Brady Quinn was cleared to play from his concussion but no early word was given by HC Romeo Crennel if he was going to make the change to Quinn over Matt Cassel and in reality - will it really matter? All Crennel wants to do is look like he is still trying. History says all that Quinn will do is make Dwayne Bowe's numbers suffer while still losing games. His lone start was in Tampa Bay where he passed for only 180 yards and two interceptions. even Christian Ponder threw for 250 yards on the Bucs who average allowing 330 pass yards per game. Quinn - just the 180. I'll assume that Cassel gets the start and adjust it later if warranted as if it matters.

In a clear sign that the Chiefs have lost all sense of what is needed to win a game, they gave Jamaal Charles only five carries when the Raiders visited, then only 12 in San Diego. In Pittsburgh against a great defense in the driving rain they finally fed it to him 23 times for 100 yards and one score. Whenever Charles is given more than 16 carries, he's been a big contributor with four scores and three games over 100 rush yards. But that has only happened four times this year. Considering the decline of the passing game, it is a shock they don't take a page from the Panthers old playbook and just run every play.

A healthy Peyton Hillis is getting 7+ carries per game now despite the fact he's no where near the runner that Charles is. Last week it was ten runs for 30 yards. In San Diego, he gained only 14 yards on seven carries. OC Brian Daboll uses Hillis like he was his brother-in-law and he just wants his wife to shut up already. Charles can handle a much heavier workload but they won't usually give it to him.

Tony Moeaki comes off a season high 68 yards on three catches in Pittsburgh and he managed 57 yards on four receptions the previous week but he's never scored and spent the rest of the year with less than 20 yards in games.

The wideouts are limited to Dwayne Bowe who has the only touchdowns by a wideout and only games with more than 65 receiving yards. Bowe caught another score last week but it was called back on an unrelated penalty. He has remained well about 60 yards in every game except when Quinn started and he was limited to just 25 yards on three catches. If the Chief switch to Quinn this week, Bowe should wear a T-shirt that reads "I am SO out of here".

Jon Baldwin not only had his traditional one catch last week, but he dropped a long pass last week and later left the game with a head/neck injury. Bottom line - only Charles really matters in this offense and only Bowe matters as a receiver unless Quinn starts. Then it is just Charles being under-used.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 1 32 29 20 26
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 15 26 14 25 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @OAK 0000018010 ***
Smith has one multiple touchdown affair in his past six outings. For fantasy purposes you can do significantly better than a game manager like him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @OAK 9023200000 ***
The last time Charles saw these Raiders he scored five touchdowns; no reason to think he can't do significant fantasy damage once again, as this iteration of the Oakland defense is giving up 160-plus yards per game to opposing running backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @OAK 004600000 ***
Bowe's high volume of targets suggest he'll be the Chiefs receiver that takes advantage of an Oakland D that's allowed at least one WR TD in six of the past seven games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Junior Hemingway, KC @OAK 002200000 ***
The Chiefs can barely fill the fantasy coffers of one receiver, and target volume says that receiver will be someone other than Hemingway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @OAK 004401000 **
Kelce's seeing the targets, but aside from allowing a pair of scores to Julius Thomas the Raiders have been solid of late against tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @OAK 2233 ***
Few teams are more point- or kicker-friendly than the Raiders, but Santos isn't big on taking advantage. Between his propensity for single-field goal games and the Raiders being slightly stiffer defensively at home, best get your kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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