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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: CIN 20, KC 10 (Line: CIN by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Andy Dalton, Jamaal Charles

The 4-5 Bengals hit the road where they are only 2-2 and the 1-8 Chiefs still have not won in Kansas City with an 0-4 mark. This game is really little more than Jamaal Charles vs. Andy Dalton. Anything else is just to keep the defenses honest. Sadly for the Chiefs, the Bengals are not nearly good enough to take this one lightly.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC -----
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 10 190,1
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
WR A.J. Green 7-110,2
WR Greg Little 3-40
WR Mohamed Sanu 3-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-50
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The win against the Giants ended a four game losing streak and ended the most difficult part of the season schedule until the final two weeks when they'll head to Pittsburgh and then host the Ravens. These next three weeks are all games they can win and would bring them perilously close to a .500 season by the end of the year. The reality here is that the defense remains less than stellar unless facing a struggling offense though - just like KC, OAK and SD.

Andy Dalton's passed for a score in every game since the opener and comes off a season best four touchdowns on the Giants. That gives him 18 passing scores on the year and half his efforts end in high passing yardage. Dalton has yet to produce fewer than two passing scores when not facing an elite defense. He threw eight touchdowns in just the last three road games.

The rushing effort is apparently forever stuck in second hear with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for around 50 to 60 yards every week no matter how bad or good the opponent is. His yearly average is exactly 60 yards per game and he's not only scored just once in the last six games, he gets almost no work as a receiver. BGE is not only below average and of no advantage, he is still the best they have.

There is no question that A.J. Green is THE best receiver this year. He's merely scored at least once in each of the last eight games. While he commands the best coverage the defense can give, he still usually ends up with around seven catches for about 100 yards and a touchdown every week. Even if the defense tries to match a particular cornerback on him, the Bengals will move Green all over the formation to get him a better matchup.

Mohamed Sanu comes off his first touchdown but still has not caught more than his four catches for 47 yards against the Giants. He's elbowing out Armon Binns for what is essentially the #4 receiver role. Andrew Hawkins finally scored last week as well but he's been held below 50 yards every game since week three and even against the Giants only recorded three catches for 16 yards.

Jermaine Gresham's had a season worst 15 yards on three catches last week though he scored a touchdown. Gresham has been very inconsistent with two sub-20 yard games sandwiching a 108 yard effort versus the Broncos. He's there when Dalton needs him but isn't good enough to matter every week.

The Chiefs defense has to be emotionally spent losing a close one in Pittsburgh in bad weather and has a shorter week to prepare. Sadly the bigger weakness is the rushing defense which mirrors the weakness of the Cincy offense. This all comes down to what Dalton can accomplish as it always does. Fortunately it never takes many points to beat the Chiefs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 12 29 3 17 15 14
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 20 23 6 6 29 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @TB 0000023010 ***
Between the Bengals' penchant for running the football and a Bucs D that surprisingly has held three straight and four of five to single passing scores, this is a less than favorable matchup for Dalton.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @TB 5012200000 ****
An opportunity for both Bengals backs to be fantasy relevant, as they're splitting touches while Gio works his way back into shape. With speed and pass-catching ability he can emulate the likes of Matt Forte (112 combo, 2 TDs), Justin Forsett (111 rushing yards) and Pierre Thomas (112 combo, 2 TDs) with his share of the Cincy workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN @TB 6011100000 ***
Grinders have gouged the Bucs, from Alfred Morris (96) to Steven Jackson (81 & 1, 54 & 1) to Khiry Robinson (89 & 1) to Zac Stacy (71 & 1). So Hill's share of the Cincy workload should translate to decent yardage and at least a score--more than enough to be fantasy relevant.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @TB 0061001000 ***
Heavily targeted and back to pre-injury production levels, Green's an every-week start regardless of foe.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN @TB 005600000 ***
Not saying the Bengals can't produce multiple fantasy relevant receivers, but they're definitely going to be run-heavy and Sanu takes a back seat to AJ Green so he's a fringe option at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN @TB 003300000 ***
Gresham had his one shining fantasy moment; it's unlikely to come around again, certainly not against a Bucs D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in the past two months.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN @TB 1133 ****
The Bucs have given up an average of better than 10 points per game to visiting kickers, making this a solid opportunity for Nugent.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN -----
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN -----
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 70,1 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 5-70
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-60
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20,1

Pregame Notes: Tough loss in Pittsburgh in a game they nearly won and that would have been a trap game but still something to end the six game losing streak. Playing so hard and coming so close could lead to an emotional let down this week that was already short from playing on Monday night. Bottom line here - the offense has not scored more than one touchdown in any of the last five games.

Brady Quinn was cleared to play from his concussion but no early word was given by HC Romeo Crennel if he was going to make the change to Quinn over Matt Cassel and in reality - will it really matter? All Crennel wants to do is look like he is still trying. History says all that Quinn will do is make Dwayne Bowe's numbers suffer while still losing games. His lone start was in Tampa Bay where he passed for only 180 yards and two interceptions. even Christian Ponder threw for 250 yards on the Bucs who average allowing 330 pass yards per game. Quinn - just the 180. I'll assume that Cassel gets the start and adjust it later if warranted as if it matters.

In a clear sign that the Chiefs have lost all sense of what is needed to win a game, they gave Jamaal Charles only five carries when the Raiders visited, then only 12 in San Diego. In Pittsburgh against a great defense in the driving rain they finally fed it to him 23 times for 100 yards and one score. Whenever Charles is given more than 16 carries, he's been a big contributor with four scores and three games over 100 rush yards. But that has only happened four times this year. Considering the decline of the passing game, it is a shock they don't take a page from the Panthers old playbook and just run every play.

A healthy Peyton Hillis is getting 7+ carries per game now despite the fact he's no where near the runner that Charles is. Last week it was ten runs for 30 yards. In San Diego, he gained only 14 yards on seven carries. OC Brian Daboll uses Hillis like he was his brother-in-law and he just wants his wife to shut up already. Charles can handle a much heavier workload but they won't usually give it to him.

Tony Moeaki comes off a season high 68 yards on three catches in Pittsburgh and he managed 57 yards on four receptions the previous week but he's never scored and spent the rest of the year with less than 20 yards in games.

The wideouts are limited to Dwayne Bowe who has the only touchdowns by a wideout and only games with more than 65 receiving yards. Bowe caught another score last week but it was called back on an unrelated penalty. He has remained well about 60 yards in every game except when Quinn started and he was limited to just 25 yards on three catches. If the Chief switch to Quinn this week, Bowe should wear a T-shirt that reads "I am SO out of here".

Jon Baldwin not only had his traditional one catch last week, but he dropped a long pass last week and later left the game with a head/neck injury. Bottom line - only Charles really matters in this offense and only Bowe matters as a receiver unless Quinn starts. Then it is just Charles being under-used.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 1 32 29 20 26
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 15 26 14 25 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC DEN 20000025010 ***
The Broncos shut out Smith the last time they played; in fact, Smith has barely registered on the fantasy radar this year. He could surprise and throw a 248 & 3 game at Denver like he did to the Patriots earlier this year... but probably not, so don't bank on it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC DEN 9014400000 ***
Charles has just one TD in his last six meetings with the Broncos. You can't bench him here, as he's too big a part of the KC offense, but you have to lower your expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC DEN 005700000 ***
Since blowing up the Broncos for 13-186-2 in the first meeting of the 2010 series with Denver, Bowe has faced the Broncos six times without topping 100 yards--and with just one TD in those six contests. He's the only wideout on the Kansas City roster worthy of fantasy consideration, but this week--like most--he's at best a fringe option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC DEN 005601000 **
Kelce is getting the targets, but he's losing the occasional TD to Anthony Fasano. Still, after 4-81 in the front end of the season series, and with no real WR2 stepping up in KC, he's as good a bet as any to carve out some fantasy goodness from Alex Smith's meager stat line.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC DEN 2222 ***
Santos has been solid but not spectacular, and a battle with Peyton Manning isn't likely to turn into a kicking festival.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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