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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: GB 31, DET 17 (Line: GB by 3)

Players to Watch: Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley

The 6-3 Packers come off their bye week with a four game winning streak and head to Detroit where the 4-5 Lions are 2-1. The Packers swept the Lions last year, winning 45-41 at home and 27-15 in Detroit.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 280,3
RB James Starks 50 2
WR Randall Cobb 5-60
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice four game winning streak has the Packers looking like 2011 all over again and they don't even need all the same players to get the job done. The remaining schedule features two road games against the Giants and Bears but otherwise should wins unless someone pulls an upset. The Packers already beat the Bears in week two so that visit to Chicago in week 15 is probably going to be very big in determining the divisional champ.

Aaron Rodgers started out the season with just three scores total over the first three games and with that freaked out every fantasy owner. Not to worry. He's merely thrown 21 touchdowns over the last six games. His yardage is lower this year with just 265 yards per week. But his scoring is so strong that he more than compensates.

James Starks ran for 61 yards on 17 runs in the last game and is healthy again. Alex Green never did score while he was starting and so far still has not gained more than 65 yards in any game. He'll cede more workload to Starks this week

Randall Cobb's broken out this year with six touchdowns over the last five games and over 80 yards in each of his last three road games. Jordy Nelson has been out with a bad hamstring but is expected back this week. He too was on a roll before the injury saw him with no catches for the last two games. James Jones still leads the team with eight touchdowns and he has become a reliable end zone target even if he rarely has more than around 50 yards per week.

This offense could catch fire big this and any week. Jermichael Finley has gone from tight end stud to not even worth owning but OC Tom Clements confirmed that he expected Finley to play a much bigger role in the second half of the season. He'd need to about triple his production to merit even a casual look but it helps with the offensive coordinator talks him up.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 2 31 1 18 26 19
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 12 8 17 19 24 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB HOU 30000028031 ***
Rodgers is the hottest thing going among fantasy quarterbacks right now, and Houston's once-strong pass defense has trended the wrong direction for several weeks now. QBs have averaged a TD every 11.3 completions, which ranks 10th best for exploitation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James Starks, GB HOU 4004300000 ***
The Texans have bent quite a bit versus RBs, but on this unit has not broken on the ground. Through the air, though, the Texans have allowed three TDs on the last 29 receptions faced. Starks is used a lot in the screen game, so there is hope for a sneaky TD. Don't bank on it, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB HOU 006601000 ***
Cobb is extremely tough to play on a weekly basis, but facing a Houston defense that has allowed a touchdown per game since Week 7, he has a puncher's chance at success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB HOU 005601000 ***
Adams has seen at least six targets in every game since Week 6, and he has found the end zone five times during that stretch. While he has been a little streaky, gamers must keep him in lineups. The Texans have regressed against receivers of late, so this is another worthy matchup for the blossoming wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB HOU 003401000 ***
Nelson's return tour rolls on with a decent enough matchup to instill a hint of confidence in the extension of his five-game string of double-digit fantasy points. He has scored a TD in four of his last five outings, and the Texans have given up one touchdown, on average, over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, GB HOU 004300000 ***
Houston has given up 23 catches and two of them found the end zone, but given Cook's erratic involvement, it's tough to justify plugging the veteran into a fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB HOU 1133 ***
Houston offers a solidly neutral matchup for Crosby. This group has given up 6.5 fantasy points per contest over the last five weeks to kickers.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 290,2
WR Anquan Boldin 4-40
WR Andre Roberts 5-70
TE Brandon Pettigrew 6-60,1
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The loss in Minnesota drops the Lions to 4-5 and signals that yes, this is just another inglorious year in Detroit. The hallmark of this year will be inconsistency. Most players have their one or two big games but then return to mediocrity waiting for that fourth or fifth game when they can do it again. Problem too is that the Lions are facing a daunting remaining schedule where they may not be favored in any game,

Matthew Stafford has managed to produce high pass yardage nearly every week but his touchdowns are lower than last season and he was stuck with just one score per game until week eight when he exploded for four against the Seahawks. Then back to no scores the next week in Jacksonville and back up to three touchdowns in Minnesota last week. To his credit, he has remained above 280 passing yards in all but two games.

Mikel Leshoure came off his three touchdown game against the Jaguars and flopped again with only 48 yards and no scores in Minnesota. He's been oddly phased out of the passing game in recent weeks and generally produces just a very average sort of rushing effort that only once has been better than 70 yards. Joique Bell had a career game when he scored in Jacksonville and gained 109 total yards but then was back to only 48 yards the next week.

Brandon Pettigrew scored for only the second time all year in Minnesota last week but he's really declined in use from the start of the season. Four of his last five games remained below 40 yards. To his credit - three of his best efforts all came at home.

Calvin Johnson continues to miss practice time because of his left knee and always seems like he is going to miss time and then he just goes out and has his best game of the year with 12 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown last week. Johnson is seriously light on scoring this year with just two touchdowns but he has topped 90 yards five times already. He's good for around a dozen targets in most games, the only question is if the defense can stop him. Last season, Johnson was held to only 49 yards and one score when the Packers came to town but he later posted 244 yards and a score in Green Bay.

No doubt this game turns to the air sooner than later. The last time they played was in week 17 last season when Stafford ended the season with a 520 yard, five touchdown game in Green Bay. The Packers were resting players then and even Matt Flynn passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 6 9 28
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 12 24 10 16 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET @NO 20000025021 ***
Despite having the 10th highest opportunity rating, quarterbacks have averaged only the 23rd most fantasy points points meeting with the Saints. Quarterbacks have averaged 263 yards and a touchdown every 13.1 completions since Week 7 vs. New Orleans.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET @NO 7005301000 ***
In its last five games, New Orleans has permitted averages of 4.2 catches, 54.2 yards and 0.2 touchdowns to RBs ... not exactly inspiring for Riddick owners. This is the 12th worst matchup for PPR backs, but C.J. Prosise, Todd Gurley and DuJuan Harris all caught at least four balls. Harris and the rookie produced 80-plus yards each.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dwayne Washington, DET @NO 3001100000 ***
Washington continues to see minimal work and have no viable path to fantasy lineup worthiness.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET @NO 007801000 ***
Tate has reemerged as Detroit's top receiving target among wideouts. He's the safest bet of this group to post across-the-board numbers that garner respect and deserve a lineup spot. The Saints have allowed receivers to average 12.4 catches (17th), 151.2 yards (21st) and a score per game (17th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET @NO 004500000 ***
There was a glimpse of Jones last week after his midseason descent. Shot out of a cannon to begin the season, Jones has gone from a top-flight starter to a barely playable option. He has fringe PPR appeal this week in the off-chance Detroit finds itself in a shootout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, DET @NO 003300000 ***
A lack of a running game has made Boldin a favorite around the stripe, so don't downplay his upside. However, he cannot score every game (right?!?). The Saints have given up one receiver score per contest over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET @NO 005600000 ***
Ebron faces a Saints defense that has given up 13.6 PPR points per game over the past five weeks, which is the 15th most. Two of the 23 catches surrendered found the stripe, so there is hope here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET @NO 3322 ***
Only two teams have granted more fantasy points per game to kickers since Week 7, and most of which came from distance. The Lions have given Prater 11 kicking tries from three-point land in this time.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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