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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: GB 31, DET 17 (Line: GB by 3)

Players to Watch: Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley

The 6-3 Packers come off their bye week with a four game winning streak and head to Detroit where the 4-5 Lions are 2-1. The Packers swept the Lions last year, winning 45-41 at home and 27-15 in Detroit.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 280,3
RB Alex Green 30 2-20
RB James Starks 50 2
WR Randall Cobb 5-60
WR James Jones 3-40,1
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice four game winning streak has the Packers looking like 2011 all over again and they don't even need all the same players to get the job done. The remaining schedule features two road games against the Giants and Bears but otherwise should wins unless someone pulls an upset. The Packers already beat the Bears in week two so that visit to Chicago in week 15 is probably going to be very big in determining the divisional champ.

Aaron Rodgers started out the season with just three scores total over the first three games and with that freaked out every fantasy owner. Not to worry. He's merely thrown 21 touchdowns over the last six games. His yardage is lower this year with just 265 yards per week. But his scoring is so strong that he more than compensates.

James Starks ran for 61 yards on 17 runs in the last game and is healthy again. Alex Green never did score while he was starting and so far still has not gained more than 65 yards in any game. He'll cede more workload to Starks this week

Randall Cobb's broken out this year with six touchdowns over the last five games and over 80 yards in each of his last three road games. Jordy Nelson has been out with a bad hamstring but is expected back this week. He too was on a roll before the injury saw him with no catches for the last two games. James Jones still leads the team with eight touchdowns and he has become a reliable end zone target even if he rarely has more than around 50 yards per week.

This offense could catch fire big this and any week. Jermichael Finley has gone from tight end stud to not even worth owning but OC Tom Clements confirmed that he expected Finley to play a much bigger role in the second half of the season. He'd need to about triple his production to merit even a casual look but it helps with the offensive coordinator talks him up.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 2 31 1 18 26 19
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 12 8 17 19 24 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @MIN 20000026021 ***
The Vikings have held four of the last five quarterbacks they've faced to one or zero touchdown tosses--a streak that includes limiting Rodgers to 286 and 1 in the earlier meeting. Rodgers has torn up the last two defenses he's faced, however, and has historically had his way with the Vikings so it would be silly to doubt him here--especially with a first-round bye on the line for Green Bay.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DuJuan Harris, GB @MIN 3003200000 ***
Throw Harris into the three-ring circus that is the Green Bay ground game. Even if they're as productive this time around as they were in the previous meeting with Minnesota, the three-way split renders each of them difficult fantasy starts at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Green, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
The Packers ran with surprising effectiveness in their last meeting with Minnesota, but that was with a Green/James Starks combo. This week Mike McCarthy has indicated he'll use all three of his backs, and that doesn't even include John Kuhn at the stripe. Tough to trust a guy with a three-way split of his team's workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Grant, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
Grant rolled the Titans for 80 yards and two TDs last week, but the Vikings are a tougher defense. And with Alex Green healthy the Packers backfield is expected to be a three-way split, which doesn't bode well for Grant's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, GB @MIN 005601000 ***
The inexplicable NFL leader in touchdown receptions, Jones has benefited by being at times the only healthy receiver in Green Bay. With Jordy Nelson just coming back and Randall Cobb hobbled, Jones could be in line for even more scores this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Nelson is expected to be back for this game, perhaps only for a test drive before the playoffs. He's re-injured himself each time he's tried to come back, so using him in his first game off the bench is definitely risky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermichael Finley, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Finley had 60 yards in the previous meeting with Minnesota and has topped 50 yards in five of the last six games. He's borderline trustable in fantasy circles once again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @MIN 4322 ***
How the Packers still trust this guy with potentially the fate of their season defies explanation. You certainly don't have to do the same with the fate of your fantasy team.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 290,2
RB Joique Bell 10 3-20
RB Reggie Bush 50 2-20
RB Mikel Leshoure 70 2-10
WR Ryan Broyles 2-30
WR Calvin Johnson 6-100,1
TE Brandon Pettigrew 6-60,1
PK David Akers 1 FG 2 XP
PK Jason Hanson 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The loss in Minnesota drops the Lions to 4-5 and signals that yes, this is just another inglorious year in Detroit. The hallmark of this year will be inconsistency. Most players have their one or two big games but then return to mediocrity waiting for that fourth or fifth game when they can do it again. Problem too is that the Lions are facing a daunting remaining schedule where they may not be favored in any game,

Matthew Stafford has managed to produce high pass yardage nearly every week but his touchdowns are lower than last season and he was stuck with just one score per game until week eight when he exploded for four against the Seahawks. Then back to no scores the next week in Jacksonville and back up to three touchdowns in Minnesota last week. To his credit, he has remained above 280 passing yards in all but two games.

Mikel Leshoure came off his three touchdown game against the Jaguars and flopped again with only 48 yards and no scores in Minnesota. He's been oddly phased out of the passing game in recent weeks and generally produces just a very average sort of rushing effort that only once has been better than 70 yards. Joique Bell had a career game when he scored in Jacksonville and gained 109 total yards but then was back to only 48 yards the next week.

Brandon Pettigrew scored for only the second time all year in Minnesota last week but he's really declined in use from the start of the season. Four of his last five games remained below 40 yards. To his credit - three of his best efforts all came at home.

Calvin Johnson continues to miss practice time because of his left knee and always seems like he is going to miss time and then he just goes out and has his best game of the year with 12 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown last week. Johnson is seriously light on scoring this year with just two touchdowns but he has topped 90 yards five times already. He's good for around a dozen targets in most games, the only question is if the defense can stop him. Last season, Johnson was held to only 49 yards and one score when the Packers came to town but he later posted 244 yards and a score in Green Bay.

No doubt this game turns to the air sooner than later. The last time they played was in week 17 last season when Stafford ended the season with a 520 yard, five touchdown game in Green Bay. The Packers were resting players then and even Matt Flynn passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 6 9 28
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 12 24 10 16 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET CHI 0000032012 ***
Stafford needs 305 yards to crack the 5,000-yard mark, and Calvin Johnson is 108 shy of 2,000. The Lions already throw plenty anyway, here's one more reason to throw the ball even more. What else does Detroit have to play for?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mikel Leshoure, DET CHI 401000000 ***
Leshoure has scored in five of six, capitalizing on Calvin Johnson's inability to find the end zone. But the Bears have been stingy to opposing backs, giving up just six RB rushing scores on the year. Add in Joique Bell stealing looks--especially in the passing game, which constitutes the bulk of the Lions' game plan--and Leshoure is a difficult fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET CHI 6002200000 ****
Bush only gained 64 yards in the home game against the Pats but scored twice as a receiver last week against the Bills. The Pats have never allowed any runner to gain more than 83 yards in New England and it is less likely Bush will run in a score this time than last.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET CHI 006500000 ***
Bell might roll up some yardage as the Lions' third down/passing situation back, but there's limited fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET CHI 00121600000 ***
Da Bears held Megatron to three catches on 11 targets in the earlier meeting, but the two guys who picked up his slack--Titus Young and Ryan Broyles--are both out of the mix. CJ needs 108 yards to become CJ2K; over the past five he's averaged 17 targets, 10 catches, and 155 yards, so that mark is a given. Just don't expect a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kris Durham, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Seriously, this is the best wingman the Lions can come up with? Everything's going to Megatron regardless of whether or not he's covered, no reason to think Durham suddenly becomes a competent receiver in Week 17 against a Bears team that needs to win.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tony Scheffler, DET CHI 004501000 ***
With Brandon Pettigrew nicked Scheffler becomes the lead dog in the Lions' TEBC, but now he's sharing with Will Heller. Against a Bears D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in a month and only surrendered four all year, a half share isn't enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Heller, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Heller steps into Tony Scheffler's role now that Scheffler has taken on Brandon Pettigrew's duties. Meh.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K David Akers, DET CHI 2133 ***
Akers at home won't get skunked but may only kick extra points this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Hanson, DET CHI 2122 ***
The Lions probably can't send Hanson out a winner, but they could at least let him kick a couple for old time's sake.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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