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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: GB 31, DET 17 (Line: GB by 3)

Players to Watch: Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley

The 6-3 Packers come off their bye week with a four game winning streak and head to Detroit where the 4-5 Lions are 2-1. The Packers swept the Lions last year, winning 45-41 at home and 27-15 in Detroit.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET -----
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG -----
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 280,3
WR Randall Cobb 5-60
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: A nice four game winning streak has the Packers looking like 2011 all over again and they don't even need all the same players to get the job done. The remaining schedule features two road games against the Giants and Bears but otherwise should wins unless someone pulls an upset. The Packers already beat the Bears in week two so that visit to Chicago in week 15 is probably going to be very big in determining the divisional champ.

Aaron Rodgers started out the season with just three scores total over the first three games and with that freaked out every fantasy owner. Not to worry. He's merely thrown 21 touchdowns over the last six games. His yardage is lower this year with just 265 yards per week. But his scoring is so strong that he more than compensates.

James Starks ran for 61 yards on 17 runs in the last game and is healthy again. Alex Green never did score while he was starting and so far still has not gained more than 65 yards in any game. He'll cede more workload to Starks this week

Randall Cobb's broken out this year with six touchdowns over the last five games and over 80 yards in each of his last three road games. Jordy Nelson has been out with a bad hamstring but is expected back this week. He too was on a roll before the injury saw him with no catches for the last two games. James Jones still leads the team with eight touchdowns and he has become a reliable end zone target even if he rarely has more than around 50 yards per week.

This offense could catch fire big this and any week. Jermichael Finley has gone from tight end stud to not even worth owning but OC Tom Clements confirmed that he expected Finley to play a much bigger role in the second half of the season. He'd need to about triple his production to merit even a casual look but it helps with the offensive coordinator talks him up.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 2 31 1 18 26 19
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 12 8 17 19 24 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB @PIT 20100020003 ***
Hundley does not belong in a fantasy lineup. In fact, he really has no place on a roster. The Steelers have been up and down against passers, but this defense shouldn't have a problem exploiting him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB @PIT 5004400000 ***
This is the worst matchup for both scoring systems using data since Week 6. The Steelers have not allowed a running back to score over the past 92 touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @PIT 005600000 ***
This is the fourth-best matchup for fantasy points per play by wideouts, despite being the 17th-best for reception volume. The Steelers have yielded one TD per game to wide receivers. Adams has proven to be about the only reliable option with Brett Hundley at the helm. On the road, this may go south in a hurry.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @PIT 003400000 ***
Cobb has seen a few dump-offs here and there but has not carved out a role with the limited Brett Hundley tossing the ball. Pittsburgh has given up only 11.3 receptions a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @PIT 004400000 ***
Nelson has plummeted to basically being unplayable without Aaron Rodgers. There is no chemistry or timing with Brett Hundley. The Steelers have granted receivers one touchdown a game on 11.3 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @PIT 1111 ***
The matchup is neutral but skews negative. The Packers may struggle to move the ball with any regularity, and this isn't a reasonable time to chance it.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB -----
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU -----
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 290,2
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The loss in Minnesota drops the Lions to 4-5 and signals that yes, this is just another inglorious year in Detroit. The hallmark of this year will be inconsistency. Most players have their one or two big games but then return to mediocrity waiting for that fourth or fifth game when they can do it again. Problem too is that the Lions are facing a daunting remaining schedule where they may not be favored in any game,

Matthew Stafford has managed to produce high pass yardage nearly every week but his touchdowns are lower than last season and he was stuck with just one score per game until week eight when he exploded for four against the Seahawks. Then back to no scores the next week in Jacksonville and back up to three touchdowns in Minnesota last week. To his credit, he has remained above 280 passing yards in all but two games.

Mikel Leshoure came off his three touchdown game against the Jaguars and flopped again with only 48 yards and no scores in Minnesota. He's been oddly phased out of the passing game in recent weeks and generally produces just a very average sort of rushing effort that only once has been better than 70 yards. Joique Bell had a career game when he scored in Jacksonville and gained 109 total yards but then was back to only 48 yards the next week.

Brandon Pettigrew scored for only the second time all year in Minnesota last week but he's really declined in use from the start of the season. Four of his last five games remained below 40 yards. To his credit - three of his best efforts all came at home.

Calvin Johnson continues to miss practice time because of his left knee and always seems like he is going to miss time and then he just goes out and has his best game of the year with 12 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown last week. Johnson is seriously light on scoring this year with just two touchdowns but he has topped 90 yards five times already. He's good for around a dozen targets in most games, the only question is if the defense can stop him. Last season, Johnson was held to only 49 yards and one score when the Packers came to town but he later posted 244 yards and a score in Green Bay.

No doubt this game turns to the air sooner than later. The last time they played was in week 17 last season when Stafford ended the season with a 520 yard, five touchdown game in Green Bay. The Packers were resting players then and even Matt Flynn passed for 480 yards and six touchdowns.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 6 9 28
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 12 24 10 16 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET MIN 0000025020 ***
Stafford's worst game of 2017 was against the Vikings in Week 4. He finished with 16 and 18.6 fantasy points, respectively, in the two meetings last year. Minnesota is one of the better defenses against quarterbacks, but this game has so much riding on it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET MIN 5011100000 ***
Would you have guessed right if the question was against which team did Abdullah enjoy his most fantasy success in 2017? Yep. The Vikings permitted him 94 rushing yards and a TD in Week 4, and he added a 3-15-0 line through the air. This time around, Minnesota enters with the 22nd-best matchup for Abdullah, based on data since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET MIN 2003300000 ***
Minnesota has had Riddick's number. He has just seven catches and no touchdowns over the last three meetings. Since Week 6, the Vikings have granted RBs seven catches a game (6th-most) but no aerial TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET MIN 005701000 ***
Jones failed to score in any of the last three meetings with Minnesota. The Vikings have surrendered just two TDs in the past 47 receptions by wideouts. With only one poor game in the past seven weeks, Jones is a decent gamble.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Golladay, DET MIN 002500000 ***
Golladay may be good for a big play here or there, which is about all right now. It's tough to bank on his limited involvement translating into fantasy rewards, particularly so against a stout defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET MIN 003300000 ***
Tate had 16 catches in two games last year against the Vikes, scoring once and racking up 156 yards. The 2017 Week 4 meeting left much to be desired (3-29-0). Consider this a slightly conservative projection, but Minnesota ranks in the bottom dozen teams against WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET MIN 002301000 *
Ebron caught only two balls for 27 yards the last time out against the Vikings. Minnesota has not yielded a tight end touchdown in the last 19 grabs. This is a low-end matchup across the board, and Ebron's projection is optimistic.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET MIN 1133 ***
This is a solidly negative matchup. The position has made seven of eight field goal attempts and six of the seven point-afters. Prater made two of his three kicks in the previous meeting.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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