FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: IND 23, NE 30 (Line: NE by 9)

Players Updated: Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez

Players to Watch: Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, Andrew Luck

This should be a fun game though unlike the previous Manning vs. Brady matchups now. The 6-3 Colts are on a four game winning streak and are 2-2 in road games. The 6-3 Patriots are on a three game winning streak with a 3-1 home mark. This game favors the Patriots of course though their recent wins there have been far closer than expected.

Pregame Notes: Chances are good you were not expecting the Colts to be 6-3 after the first nine games this year. This is a team that was 2-14 last season and had the worst record in the NFL. Apparently, they spent their #1 overall draft pick rather wisely. Andrew Luck is speeding towards a slam dunk Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Luck's thrown for ten touchdowns and added five as a runner. He's rushed in more touchdowns than all but Robert Griffin III. Over half his game feature more than one score and he's already set the all-time single game rookie record with 433 yards. The only downside to Luck so far is that when he is on the road, he's only thrown two touchdowns in four games. Luck is the real deal and a top 5 fantasy quarterback in some league scoring systems.

Donald Brown was able to play last week and gained 42 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard took the start and gained 48 yards on 12 runs and added two catches for 11 yards.The duo will continue to split the workload and hope that short touchdowns end up with Delone Carter. Or better yet Luck since the running backs have combined for just two rushing touchdowns.The backs have been marginally productive and split up the work anyway. The position may be something that the Colts consider next year after getting at least one more new receiver for Luck.

Coby Fleener remains out and was little used anyway. Dwayne Allen teased with 75 yards on six catches in week nine but then only turned in two catches for 31 yards in Jacksonville. Inconsistent at best and no scores by the position for the last six weeks.

Donnie Avery was able to play last Thursday and ended with 65 yards on four receptions. He hasn't scored since the season opener and rarely has more than four catches in a game. Reggie Wayne dominates the targets and receptions with around seven more more every week. The worst Wayne has done this year was 71 yards and in a reception points league he's been a major benefit with 69 catches over just nine games. T.Y. Hilton was held to no catches with Avery back in the lineup last week but he ran twice on end arounds to gain 30 yards which is a new wrinkle. Hilton remains below 40 receiving yards every week but has topped 100 yards and scored in home games against the Jaguars and Dolphins.

The Patriots have allowed at least one passing score to every opponent and average two touchdowns along with very healthy yardage. Six opponents already passed for 290+ yards on them. At home they have been very strong against the run until last week when the Bills saw more success. Whatever offense the Colts accomplish should be almost entirely from Andrew Luck and the passing game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND	HOU	20	0	0	0	0	280	2	2
Luck has the double task of extending his own rookie passing record and improving the Colts' playoff seed. He's hovered around 200 yards each of the past three games, but he did throw two TDs against the Texans a couple weeks back. Luck averaged around 280 passing yards per game at home, and with a little something still left to play for look for him to keep chucking.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Vick Ballard, IND	HOU	80	0	3	20	0	0	0	0
Ballard banged out 105 yards against the Texans a couple weeks back--yes, the same Texans' D that held Adrian Peterson in check last week. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a better effort from Houston's run defense--and more of the offensive load to fall on Andrew Luck and the passing game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND	HOU	0	0	6	80	1	0	0	0
Houston held Wayne in check a couple weeks back, but a dozen targets and a touchdown last week against the Chiefs provides reassurance that he's still Andrew Luck's go-to guy. This game still has meaning, so Wayne won't be ignored.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND	HOU	0	0	4	60	0	0	0	0
Hilton was Indy's leading receiver in the previous meeting with Houston, but he's reliant on a home run ball and as such difficult to trust with a fantasy start.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND	HOU	0	0	3	30	0	0	0	0
with Matt Leinart last week, DHB only gained 2-31. Throw in Terrelle Pryor this week and no reason to touch any Raiders receiver.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND	HOU	0	0	4	40	1	0	0	0
The Texans have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, including one to Allen two weeks back. And with Coby Fleener still a non-factor, Allen isn't a bad bet to reprise his production from a couple weeks ago.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND	HOU	2	1	2	2
Vinny has multiple treys in each of his last three at home, and with Indy still looking to improve its playoff lot he should get plenty of chances to swing the leg this week.

Pregame Notes: The Patriots have a two game lead in the AFC East with the Dolphins (4-5) as the only potential threat. The rest of the schedule only contains three road games and in the end it is all going to boil down to what happens in the two remaining games against the Fins. The only potential change this year is that the Pats may actually have to play in the wild card round. The lack of defense has been their undoing but the offense has been in high gear recently.

Tom Brady has thrown a score in every game and currently stands at 18 touchdowns on the season - plenty productive. But what should come into play this week is that Brady doesn't usually do as much in home games because the rushing effort typically does better. Brady threw for only 223, 259 and 237 yards in the last three home games. And never scored more than twice in those games. Oddly he did exceed 300 yards in each of his last four road games despite playing some very good defenses.

Stevan Ridley doesn't take a full workload in New England but he still gets plenty to make him a great fantasy start in all but the toughest matchups on the road. He already has five games with around 100 yards and he always scores at least once whenever he rushes more than 20 times in a game. Danny Woodhead scored twice last week but only ran once and caught four passes for 46 yards. Ridley is the only consistent play here and one that should benefit from the Colts defense that gave up six rushing touchdowns over their four road games and high yardage to the better backs.

Aaron Hernandez is becoming a big worry after missing week eight, resting up on their bye and then sitting out against the Bills last Sunday. He's only played in two games since week two and is going to be a risk again this week. He was not called out until Saturday night and has proven to be the worst fantasy draft pick of a tight end this year given that he almost always went #3 in the position. Rob Gronkowski comes off a down game with just three catches for 31 yards and one score. He did score eight times this year but his yardage is down notably from 2011 and that too relates to the rushing game digging into the need to pass.

Wes Welker has also dropped off with six catches in each of the last three games that never gained more than 74 yards and did not produce any scores. Welker only scored twice all year and his string of big games from week two until week six has really declined.

The Colts are weak against the running backs and top ranked against tight ends. The Pats should take this game but it may yet again be one where the rushing effort adds enough that the high passing stats just do not happen for the fourth straight home game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE	MIA	0	0	0	0	0	280	2	0
Brady is always a must start anyway but he settled for only 238 yards and one score in Miami this year. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but this is less likely to become a monster game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE	MIA	80	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ridley will share the workload with the other three runners but he - and he alone - is consistent and productive enough to merit a start. Ridley already had 19-71 and a TD in Miami and should be good for more this week depending on the whims of Bill Belichick who may want to rest Ridley a little this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE	MIA	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Amendola will be the main focus of the defense that only allowed two TDs to visiting wideouts this year and rarely more than 50 yards. His last two road games combined for only three catches and 43 yards so leave Amendola on your bench this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Michael Jenkins, NE	MIA	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Jenkins is a great downfield blocker and reliable short-game target, but he's turned neither into much in the way of fantasy contributions this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Aaron Hernandez, NE	MIA	0	0	7	90	0	0	0	0
Hernandez caught eight passes for 97 yards versus the Fins this year and should end up taking the tight end workload alone again this week. Always a safe start but Fins have only allowed two scores to the position all year.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE	MIA	2	2	3	3
At home versus the Fins has to be at least average points at worse.

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