FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 2-20
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @CIN 30000024012 ***
Bortles' best fantasy outing is still the second half of the Week 3 game in which he replaced Chad Henne. His prospects at providing that first wire-to-wire fantasy winner are slim here against a Cincy D that's allowed a total of three passing TDs in four home games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @CIN 6003200000 **
Robinson's run of 100-yard games likely comes to an end here; the Bengals have ceded 46, 61, 25 and 68 yards to opposing feature backs in four previous home games. They have, however, allowed RB TDs in five straight and six of seven so there's a chance Robinson gives you a little garbage-time fantasy bump.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @CIN 006700000 ***
Jaguars WRs have a total of two TDs in the past five games; the Bengals have surrendered just three WR TDs all year. At least Robinson holds value as one of the two primary targets, and the Jags will likely be forced to throw a lot here, but you're still grasping at straws.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @CIN 003400000 ****
Hurns Week 1: 110 yards, 2 TDs. Hurns since: 35 yards per game, 1 total TD. A matchup with a Cincy D that's allowed only three WR TDs and 2 100-yard games all year isn't likely to bump him off the Frisman Jackson fast track.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @CIN 004300000 ****
It took Shorts 16 targets to get his last game of fantasy note; while he's one of the Jags' top receivers he's not seeing that workload on a regular basis. And a matchup with a Cincy secondary that's allowed only three WR TDs and two 100-yard games all year isn't likely to offer respite.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC @CIN 004401000 **
If you must start a Jaguar this week, Harbor might be your guy. It's a favorable matchup with a Cincy D that's allowed seven different tight ends to top 50 yards against them, four in the past four games, as well as four TE TDs in that same four-game span. But here's hoping you don't have to start a Jaguar this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @CIN 2211 ***
Scobee has yet to record a double-digit point effort this season; get your kicks elsewhere.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 290,2
RB Arian Foster 120,2 4-30
WR Andre Johnson 6-100,1

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU PHI 0000025011 ***
Tempting to plug The Beard into fantasy lineups this week against a Philly D that's allowed multiple TD tosses in every game save for the shocking shutout of Eli Manning and the Giants in Week 6. But Fitz has just one multiple TD outing of his own in the past six games so he simply can't be banked on for true fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Arian Foster, HOU PHI 11024300000 ***
Foster is working on a streak of four straight games with 100-plus rushing yards, with touchdowns in each of those games and multiple scores in three of the four. Fear Philly's run D if you'd like, if Frank Gore can bust off 119 yards and Benny Cunningham and Roy Helu can find the end zone you have to like Foster's chances for success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU PHI 006701000 ****
Hopkins has out-fantasy pointed Andre Johnson in seven of eight this year; we'd call that a trend. Philly allowed multiple 100-yard, TD-scoring receivers last week and has given up multiple TDs in two of the past three games so Hopkins can still be a fantasy helper even if he's relegated to WR2 looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, HOU PHI 007900000 ****
There's hope for Andre, who has been relegated--fantasy-wise, at least--to WR2 in Houston's passing attack. Last week Arizona dropped two 100-yard, TD-scoring receivers on the Eagles and two weeks before that the receiver-challenged Rams managed to get two of their own into the end zone. So maybe being WR2 isn't such a bad gig for Andre after all.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Garrett Graham, HOU PHI 002300000 ***
Remember when Houston used to be a great place to score some TE fantasy points? This year's version of the Texans have produced a total of 15.2 fantasy points out of the tight end position. That's an eight game total. Clearly you can do better elsewhere.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, HOU PHI 1133 ***
Feast or famine with Bullock: four games of five or fewer points, four games of 11 or more. He's been more feast mode of late--three of the past four games, to be precise--so you may as well stick with him here.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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