FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 30000019000 ***
"Hooray!" That must be what every one of you is saying about the idea of Blake Bortles returning to a starting lineup. No? No one? Fine ... Houston has been eviscerated by quarterbacks in the last five weeks -- especially so in the last three games. The matchup is tempting for DFS players looking to gain an edge on the competition with a divergent but extremely risky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @HOU 4013200000 **
Update: Leonard Fournette (foot, ankle) is unlikely to play with a doubtful tag, which means Yeldon could see the bulk of the work. He was a healthy scratch in Week 16, and Carlos Hyde is questionable to play. This situation is volatile, so look for safer choices with better matchups. RB David Williams may get his shot, though, relegating Yeldon to third-down chores. Yeldon scored a receiving TD in the earlier contest, for whatever it is worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Carlos Hyde, JAC @HOU 3001100000 *
Update: Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and Hyde, while questionable, could see extra work. He has no fantasy utility, due to a tough matchup, his own injury, and the idea of losing touches to either David Williams or T.J. Yeldon.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC @HOU 003500000 **
Jacksonville turns back to Blake Bortles for the finale, which bodes well for Moncrief. He caught seven balls for 76 yards in the Week 7 contest vs. Houston. The Texans have been atrocious on the back half of the defense in recent weeks. Half of their season-long TD told has come in the past five games. Moncrief could be better than his projection suggests and has a hint of upside in all formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DJ Chark Jr., JAC @HOU 004400000 ***
Chark should be close to returning this week, and Blake Bortles is back in the lineup. The rookie caught four balls for 31 yards in the last meeting and is not a fantasy option in any setting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @HOU 004400000 **
This defense has fallen apart on the back end in the last five weeks, giving up six touchdowns (12 on the year) and more than 1,000 yards in those five games. Westbrook was good for only 17 yards in the first game. Blake Bortles returns to the starting lineup, and the second-year receiver has a little appeal for flier purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, JAC @HOU 1111 ***
No writeup available

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 4-60,1

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU JAC 40100018000 ***
Jacksonville has been strong against quarterbacks pretty much all year, and the worst game of Watson's fantasy season came vs. this defense in Week 7. He managed only 139 passing yards and one touchdown, adding 13 yards on the ground. He has been really good the last two games, so stick with him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU JAC 10012200000 **
Miller sat last week and is trending toward playing this week. Check back for an update to be sure.The Jaguars allowed him 100 yards and a TD in Week 7, but the matchup has since soured other than Derrick Henry's aberration a few weeks back.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU JAC 2004300000 ***
Foreman was pitiful on the ground in his first game since Week 11 of last year. He caught two passes, including a touchdown, to salvage a 10.7-point day in PPR. Lamar Miller is expected to return this week, so keep Foreman on the low end of your list of worthwhile gambles. Jacksonville has been stout all year vs. RBs, with the exception of one notable blip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU JAC 005600000 ***
The star went for 50 yards and a TD on three catches in the earlier meeting. he was good for a 7-55-1 line in last year's home start vs. the Jags. This could be a conservative projection in a way, but it's also a brutal matchup. Play him in traditional leagues but with tempered expectations. He should be avoided in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vyncint Smith, HOU JAC 002300000 ***
With a whopping two NFL grabs to his name, Smith was able to score last week on a 35-yarder. He is currently averaging 31.5 yards per catch in his extremely small sample size. The Jaguars are about as tough as they come vs. WRs, and Smith shouldn't be a factor in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keke Coutee, HOU JAC 002300000 *
Coutee looks like he is on track to play this week but shouldn't be a part of the plan in fantasy lineups. Jacksonville has smothered WRs this year, and while he will have a larger role with Demaryius Thomas lost for the year, the rookie is too risky of a play for most situations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU JAC 1133 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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