FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 2-10
TE Marcedes Lewis 2-20

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC IND 10000032020 ***
Despite all of its injury problems on defense to begin the year, Indy's defense of quarterbacks has been respectable -- bend (936 yards) but not break (3 TDs). Bortles racked up five total touchdowns and no interceptions (two fumbles lost) versus this group last season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC IND 3011100000 **
Ivory's status for Week 4 is unknown after suffering foot and ankle injuries last week. Check back Friday for an update on his status. The presumption is that he will play, but limitations may exist. Consider him a wildcard in non-PPR leagues against this mushy run D.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC IND 3005300000 ***
Indy has yielded six touchdowns (two receiving) to RBs this year, helping pave the way for the second worst fantasy RB defense. Yeldon, on his own merits, is barely playable. The matchup offers a glimmer of hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC IND 006801000 ***
Don't bench your studs, as Robinson proved last week after a slow start to the year. Indy has not allowed a WR touchdown yet but has given up 42 receptions for 537 yards. Robinson caught five balls for 84 yards and a TD in two games last year against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC IND 005700000 ***
Indy's defense somehow weathered the storm of having so many defensive backfield injuries and hasn't permitted a WR touchdown this season. Hurns, though, remains a fine PPR play given their high volume of receptions allowed (42).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC IND 004501000 **
The Colts rank in the middle of the league against tight ends, which stems from permitting a 15-186-1 line. Thomas is in that fringe territory for weekly starters. Look for a quality showing across the pond in Week 4.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC IND 2222 ***
The Colts are the third easiest matchup for kickers to exploit, and it could be worse for Indy if opposing feet were more accurate. Kickers have gone 8-for-9 on FGAs and 7-for-9 on XPAs.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brock Osweiler, HOU TEN 10000024010 ***
The Titans have surrendered only two touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, which includes Detroit and Oakland's aerial attacks. Osweiler may struggle mightily and lose opportunities to the ground game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU TEN 8014300000 ***
Tennessee's running back defense is the second best in the NFL, but that was against the Raiders and Lions after dominating the line of scrimmage against Adrian Peterson in the opener. Miller should find more room as he is able to create space on his own and is a capable receiver. Start him with modest confidence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU TEN 0071101000 ***
Hopkins faces a defense that has given up just two receiving touchdowns in 2016, but that easily could change this week. He is obviously a must-start player in all leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Will Fuller, HOU TEN 004700000 ***
Fuller's strong start hit a snag last week, but so did the entire offense. Keep the faith and play him as a flex or WR3 against this midrange WR defense.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Novak, HOU TEN 1133 ***
Kickers go as their offenses go, and last week's goose egg is no reason to give upon Novak. Tennessee is the 12th best matchup for kickers.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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