FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 2-20
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC TEN 10000025011 ***
Bortles has but one multiple passing TD outing in his 11 NFL starts, none in his past five games. He threw for 336 and 1 in the earlier meeting with Tennessee; he's banged up and it's a short week, so that feels like the top end of his prospects here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC TEN 5012100000 ***
Gerhart will get first crack at taking advantage of one of the league's softest run defenses. If you're reaching for fantasy help, he's a guy that could pay off--probably not 100-yard help, though the Titans have already allowed seven backs to cross that threshold including five in the last seven games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC TEN 300000000 ***
Toby Gerhart gets first crack at the carries, leaving Storm with table scraps. It's a favorable matchup, but the Jags need to get one back to fantasy relevancy before worrying about a second.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC TEN 006800000 ***
Shorts has been the more frequently targeted Jaguar, though barely, over the past three games. Unfortunately, he has fewer catches and yardage in those games than either Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns and has failed to reach the end zone. He posted 10-103 on 16 targets in the first meeting with Tennessee, so if you're forced to start a Jaguar receiver he's your best bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC TEN 005700000 ***
Lee has come on of late, but this is still three wideouts equally splitting what amounts to a minuscule amount of passing game production so proceed with caution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC TEN 004300000 ***
Despite Cecil Shorts getting more targets, Hurns has matched fellow rookie Marqise Lee in catches, yardage and scores over the past three games. Still, it's a one-third share of some pretty ordinary numbers from Blake Bortles, so you can likely do better fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC TEN 003501000 ***
Lewis isn't seeing consistent enough targets to warrant a fantasy start--even against a Tennessee defense that gave up 3-91-1 to Clay Harbor in the earlier meeting with Jacksonville.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC TEN 2222 ***
Scobee has come alive with three straight multiple field goal games, and no team gives up more kicker points than the Titans. Of course, the last time these two juggernauts got together Scobee managed two points so ease back on the throttle a bit.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 290,2
RB Arian Foster 120,2 4-30
WR Andre Johnson 6-100,1

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, HOU BAL 0000020011 *
Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger; those are the three quarterbacks who've had fantasy success passing on the Ravens (Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton augmented their numbers with rushing scores). Keenum is nowhere near those gentlemen and should take up a similar proximity to your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Arian Foster, HOU BAL 6016500000 *
Gutted at quarterback, all the Texans will be able to do is hand the ball to Foster and hope for the best. Unfortunately, it's a brutal matchup with a Ravens defense that hasn't allowed a back to top 68 yards all year or 59 yards in Baltimore. So while Houston will lean heavily on Foster, that doesn't mean big carry numbers will translate directly into big fantasy numbers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Damaris Johnson, HOU BAL 003500000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, HOU BAL 004500000 *
Maybe Johnson returns to action this week, but even if he does he has serious issues at quarterback dampening his fantasy impact.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU BAL 00000000 *
The Ravens have had their issues in the secondary, but they've given up just one TD in the past two games and no receiver topped 76 yards in either game. Hopkins should see plenty of targets, but coming from either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum that doesn't necessarily mean much. He's Houston's best bet for fantasy success, but he's far from a sure thing.
Update: Hopkins didn't practice at all this week as he battles an ankle injury. He's listed as questionable, but even if he goes he'll be hampered by both his injury and his quarterback situation.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, HOU BAL 1122 *
Multiple treys are no lock for Bullock, who has turned the trick in just half of his 14 games--and only two of six at home. The Ravens might enable, however, having given up multiple field goals in four straight. Still, we're talking about two field goals and maybe a PAT so don't set the bar too high here.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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