FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
TE Marcedes Lewis 2-20
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC @WAS 0000023011 ***
Most of Henne's Week 1 productivity came early on two long TDs; after that it was the same old Henne fantasy owners have come to know and ignore. Washington's D was adequate against Ryan Fitzpatrick and... could this matchup get any more meh? Nothing to reach for here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC @WAS 6002100000 ***
Assuming Gerhart goes on his sore ankle he'll face a Washington D that allowed Arian Foster to rush for 103 yards on 27 carries. Doubtful Gerhart sees that workload, healthy or no, so set your sights lower.
Update: Gerhart was back at practice later in the week and expects to play Sunday despite his tender ankle. The injury may reduce Gerhart's volume of touches, however, and since he's pretty much a volume guy his fantasy value takes a nick as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @WAS 006801000 ***
Lee was actually targeted more and caught more balls than Hurns, he just didn't haul in two home runs. He's battling some injury issues of his own, but if healthy he projects to be the go-to guy in this offense--and, based on Hurns' disappearing act after halftime, probably the safer fantasy bet of the two.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @WAS 004700000 ***
Two blown coverages by the Eagles and suddenly a star is born. Hurns isn't all flash in the pan, but it's notable that a) he was shut out in the second half and b) it was the Eagles secondary. The Redskins let DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson tag-team them for 182 yards and a TD, and if Cecil Shorts remains out (likely) Hurns and Marqise Lee could push that number. So we're saying Frisman Jackson gets at least a one-week reprise from being relegated too quickly to the "one-hit wonder" bin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @WAS 002200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @WAS 004300000 ***
"Wake me when Marcedes Lewis is fantasy relevant again." -- Rip Van Winkle
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @WAS 2211 ***
Scobee got three field goal attempts in Week 1; that's good! Scobee missed two of them; that's not so good. Here's hoping you have access to better fantasy kicking options this week.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 290,2
RB Ronnie Brown 30 3-20
RB Arian Foster 120,2 4-30
WR Andre Johnson 6-100,1

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU @OAK 10000020011 ***
Nothing in either Fitzpatrick's track record suggests he can be banked on for anything more than a pedestrian effort here. Copy and paste, at least until Ryan Mallett takes over.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Arian Foster, HOU @OAK 11013200000 ****
The Jets split their 174 RB rushing yards amongst three backs, though Chris Ivory did reach triple digits on his own. Foster will house all of those for Houston, as well as any receiving yards--and probably any touchdowns the Texans score as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, HOU @OAK 006800000 ***
Johnson is still the big dog in this hunt, though not quite as big as last year when he saw 17 of the Texans' 28 WR targets against Oakland. A more even distribution shouldn't put too much of a damper on his fantasy prospects.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU @OAK 005500000 ***
Hopkins is still a wingman to Andre Johnson, but he's definitely closing the gap--enough so that he's a viable fantasy option this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, HOU @OAK 1122 ***
Bullock should see an uptick in opportunity this week--maybe not enough to be a great fantasy start, but at least enough to warrant plug-in consideration if you're streaming kickers.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t