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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC TEN 30000024021 ***
Blake Bortles looked like Tom Brady in Week 2 -- against Brady's Patriots. Big plays marked the noteworthy showing from Bortles, and Tennessee has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per completion two games into the season. Bortles posted a Week 2 line of 223-1-2 (18.1 points) last year, following it up with a 158-0-2 showing (8.8) in the season finale.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC TEN 9003300000 *
Fournette returned to practice Wednesday in a limited fashion and appears ready to rock-n-roll, barring a setback. He reportedly looked good and should more practice time as the week moves along. The Titans have given up a bunch of rushing yards (106.5) but little else to RBs. Fournette went for 14.1 and 17.6 PPR points in the two meetings last year. Check back Friday to be safe.

Update: Fournette is questionable and a game-day call. T.J. Yeldon also is listed the same way with an ankle injury, which could possibly compel Jacksonville to play Fournette at less than 100 percent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC TEN 3001100000 *
Yeldon could see more work than usual even if Leonard Fournette returns. Tennessee has given up the fifth-most rushing yards but almost nothing via the sky. Yeldon is a poor choice regardless of Fournette's status.

Update: This one will come down to kickoff ... Fournette is questionable and a game-day call, but Yeldon also is listed the same way with an ankle injury. Corey Grant could have a larger role than expected.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Grant, JAC TEN 1002200000 ***
Grant has no fantasy utility if Leonard Fournette is on the field. Check back later in the week. Either way, the matchup is horrendous.

Update: This one will come down to kickoff ... Fournette is questionable and a game-day call, but T.J. Yeldon also is listed the same way with an ankle injury. Grant could have a larger role than expected.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC TEN 005801000 ***
Cole had sleeper potential before the season and we saw why in Week 2. He flashed at times down the stretch last year and has an outstanding matchup. The Titans have given up 16.5 receptions (6th), 234.5 yards (2nd) and a touchdown every 8.3 catches (13th). This is the No. 2 matchup in standard and 3rd in PPR. Cole landed 50 percent of his eight targets for only 33 yards in the 2017 meeting (Week 17).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC TEN 003401000 ***
Moncrief has landed a paltry five of 14 targets this year, going for 48 yards and a score. The Titans offer a tasty matchup as the No. 3 opponent in PPR and second-best opponent for standard formats. This is the No. 2 spot to look for yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC TEN 004500000 ***
Westbrook caught only one pass for nine yards on nine targets in the Week 17 game last year. He finished with a 4-83-1 line against the Patriots last week and has a fantastic matchup vs. Tennessee. The Titans have given up the sixth-most catches and second-most yards to WRs, allowing a TD every 8.3 receptions (13th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAC TEN 003200000 ***
The Titans have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points in PPR and third-lowest number in standard scoring. Only four catches for 51 yards have come from tight ends. Seferian-Jenkins could be the first to find the end zone based on his jump-ball ability.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC TEN 2233 ***
This would have been the No. 11 matchup to exploit if all four of the field goal kicks had sailed through the pipes, but a single miss drops Tennessee to being the No. 17 opponent for Week 3.

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU NYG 50100025021 ***
Only the Redskins have permitted fewer yards per game than the Giants' 168, and quarterbacks have managed to throw just two TD passes over 34 completions, which rates 21st. This is the fifth-worst opponent from a fantasy-points-against perspective.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, HOU NYG 10001100000 ***
Running backs have averaged 86.5 rushing yards and 5.5 receptions for 20.5 yards against the Giants this year. One of the 41 carries scored, as did one of 11 catches. This is the seventh-worst matchup for overall offensive yards, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU NYG 006901000 ***
The hosting Houston offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Giants defense that has not faced the likes of this passing game yet in 2018. Jacksonville and Dallas are not what anyone would call consistently dangerous aerial assaults, so put little stock in the numbers after two games. Hopkins should be just fine.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Will Fuller V, HOU NYG 006801000 ***
Fuller return after missing Week 1 with a bang, going for 8-113-1 on his nine looks. The Texans' passing game clicks as well as any when he's in the game. New York has given up some of the lowest numbers in the game to WRs over two weeks, but their opponents (JAX, DAL) haven't exactly been powerhouses at the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bruce Ellington, HOU NYG 003400000 ***
Ellington's role regressed from eight targets to three with the return of Will Fuller in the lineup last week. Short of being a wild DFS play, there's no reason to utilize Ellington in Week 3.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ka'imi Fairbairn, HOU NYG 1133 ***
All eight kicks, which have been split evenly, have sailed through the uprights against the Giants. This has been good for eight fantasy points per contest.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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