FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: JAC 10, HOU 34 (Line: HOU by 16)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster is all that really matters

The Battle of the Inverses. The 1-8 Jaguars are on a six game losing streak head to Houston to face the 8-1 Texans. This is a replay of week two when the Texans won 27-7 in Jacksonville. Sign you are not respected - the Jaguars are 16 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU -----
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Justin Blackmon 2-30
TE Marcedes Lewis 2-20

Pregame Notes: The six game losing streak is not likely to end going to Houston this week and by this point there may not be any more games where they are favored this year. They have the lowest scoring offense in the NFL with right at 14 points per game. The new ownership wants to build a winning franchise but there may not be the pieces here to get the job done. Particularly if Maurice Jones-Drew ends up on another team in 2013.

Blaine Gabbert injured his shoulder again last week but is expected back and HC Mike Mularkey once again is solid in backing his starter. Gabbert injured his non-throwing shoulder in Oakland and again against the Colts. Chad Henne came in and threw for 121 yards and one score in relief of Gabbert but Mularkey is not looking for "a spark". Gabbert's passed for nine touchdowns this year but topped 220 yards just one since the season opener.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out and he's stated that he thought he'd be out for maybe another week or so. In other interviews he is so vague that you'd swear he was practicing to become a politician. Rashad Jennings has done no one any favors these last two weeks with only 52 total yards in the loss to the Lions and then 27 yards total versus the Colts. If he only gains 27 yards in a home game against the Colts, it boggles the mind what a road game in Houston might produce.

Cecil Shorts continued his hot streak with 105 yards and a score last Thursday and that gives him four scores total on the year - no other receiver has more than one. He's also the only receiver with a 100 yard game thanks to converting a bomb into a touchdown twice. Laurent Robinson erupted last week with a season high nine catches for 77 yards and his 15 targets were six more than any other game. Justin Blackmon continues to look like a first round flop though he scored in week nine for the first and only time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 30 26 24 30 31 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 2 7 9 3 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

Houston Texans
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 MIA 30-10 10 @CHI 13-6
2 @JAC 27-7 11 JAC -----
3 @DEN 31-25 12 @DET -----
4 TEN 38-14 13 @TEN -----
5 @NYJ 23-17 14 @NE -----
6 GB 24-42 15 IND -----
7 BAL 43-13 16 MIN -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @IND -----
9 BUF 21-9 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1
RB Arian Foster 120,2 4-30
WR Cecil Shorts 3-40
PK Nick Novak 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Texans left Chicago now confident they can prevail even going toe-to-toe with another great defense on their turf in the freezing rain. Games like that are when the move to so many passing offenses are questioned and it is nice to have a dominating ground attack. The Texans currently have a one game lead over the Ravens for the #1 seed and that is likely a difference that won't change. Having already beaten the Ravens 43-13, the Texans even have a tie breaker. Schaub only passed for 195 yards and no score in the first game with the Jags.

Matt Schaub has pretty much just been whatever the Texans needed for that week. That leads to some inconsistency with two efforts that never scored and yet as good as 290 yards and four touchdowns in Denver. In fantasy terms, he's just a moderate play with more risk to be bad than good thanks to the rushing of Arian Foster.

Foster's been plenty successful in yardage with 872 yards to rank #3 in the league but he shines in scoring. Nine games in, Foster has scored in every single game and his 12 touchdowns on the year are four more than anyone else. He's been phased out as a receiver this year and rarely catches more than one pass. But he always scores. Foster gained 147 total yards and scored once in Jacksonville back in week two.

Owen Daniels was held out last week but made it to pre-game warmups before they decided to rest him one more week. His hip is expected to be better this time and let the Texans highest scoring receiver play. Daniels scored five times over the last six games that he played though his yardage generally stalls out around 70 or so. He's a big part of the passing equation and will come to matter more in matchups tougher than this one. Daniels only gained 47 yards on six catches in the last meeting with the Jaguars.

Andre Johnson is still the only wideout of any significance but he has not scored since week two. He's been good for eight catches and 75+ yards in the last three home games though he only ended with 21 yards earlier in Jacksonville.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 26 2 31 5 10 3
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 19 28 15 4 27 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brian Hoyer, HOU JAC 0000025020 ***
Hoyer clears concussion protocol just in time to lead the Texans to a division title--and more importantly for fantasy owners, face a defense he took for 293 and 3 earlier this year. The Jags have given up multiple touchdowns and at least 268 passing yards each of their last five away from Jacksonville, which should help Hoyer bounce directly back into fantasy relevancy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Blue, HOU JAC 801000000 ***
Blue seems slated for the largest share of touches against a defense that's allowed four RB TDs in the past two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Polk, HOU JAC 200000000 ***
Polk crept up on Alfred Blue's carries last week, swiping 11 of his own. Were he more productive than three yards a pop we'd project more in a favorable matchup--but he wasn't, so we won't.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU JAC 0081102000 ***
Hopkins gouged the Jags for 10-148-2 in the earlier meeting, and a defense that's given up four straight 100-yard games to WR1s--with three also finding the end zone--is no better equipped to slow him than before.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, HOU JAC 004500000 ***
Washington is playing a solid wingman role, though the Jags haven't allowed multiple wideouts to score in a game since Week 12 and only twice has a wingman topped 60 yards since Cecil Shorts had 63 in DeAndre Hopkins' shadow back in Week 6. Temper expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Ryan Griffin, HOU JAC 002200000 ***
Griffin hasn't scored in a month, hasn't topped 30 yards in longer, and didn't even see the field in the earlier matchup with Jacksonville. Little reason to like him here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Novak, HOU JAC 2233 ***
Multiple field goals
in three straight games for Novak
That's a solid trend

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t