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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: MIA 20, BUF 23 (Line: BUF by 1.5)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Daniel Thomas, Brian Hartline

The Dolphins are 4-5 and on a two game losing streak while the Bills are 3-6 and on a three game losing streak. The Fins are only 2-3 on the road but the Bills are 2-4 at home. The Dolphins swept the Bills in 2011, winning 35-8 in Miami and later 30-23 in Buffalo. This is the Thursday night game.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF -----
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 260,1
RB Arian Foster 120,2 4-30

Pregame Notes: The wheels fell off so badly in the Titans game that it isn't worth considering as more than a trap. Still the loss makes it two in a row and drops the Dolphins into hoping more for a wildcard than any divisional dreams. A loss here ends pretty much any optimism.

Ryan Tannehill's only passed for five touchdowns all year and while he had one freak game with 431 yards in Arizona, he's rarely managed more than a very average 220 yards in this offense that just wants a game manager. This week should be interesting since it will go against the weakest secondary he has faced this year.

Reggie Bush started the year with such promise but that's all subsided to a point where he is barely worth any fantasy consideration. Last week he was even benched in the Titans game for losing a fumble and only gained 29 total yards in the game. The Fins are liking a committee system more with every passing week and that only ensures that there is almost never a fantasy relevant back on this team - at least not a reliably predictable one. Daniel Thomas is getting between five and fifteen carries and even had five receptions last week though one is more common. Lamar Miller even saw the sunshine a bit when he turned in five touches against the Titans. Bottom line here - the Fins are not going to use a back enough to merit him being anything more than a flex play in a deep league when facing a weak defense. Which is this week.

The marginal passing has made Anthony Fasano the lead scorer with three touchdowns though he has not produced more than ten yards in each of the last three games. The wide receivers combined only scored twice this year and none in the last three weeks. Brian Hartline is the only real fantasy play here and he does catch six to eight passes when the Fins go against a softer secondary. Even then he's just a reception points guy since he's scored only once in the freak Arizona game. Davone Bess and Jabar Gaffney come along for the ride but this is a team nearly devoid of any passing prowess in most games.

The good news is that every opponent has scored via the pass versus the Bills and they rank dead last against running backs as well. The Fins are not as good on the road since they rely on their defense and rushing offense to win games so much of the weakness of the secondary may go unexploited.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 7 28 31 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 29 32 23 21 18 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA CLE 20000033030 ***
Tannehill racked up 31 points in garbage time last week and faces a Cleveland defense that ranks 14th in points surrendered to his position. Carson Wentz produced 22 points, while Joe Flacco was good for 23.2. Tannehill should dwarf those numbers in what is a mismatch of talent all around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA CLE 5003200000 *
Drake saw 15 percent of the snaps once Arian Foster went out last weekend, and his role will increase with the vet once again on the mend. Drake is likely to be the lightning to Jay Ajayi's thunder, making him a more valuable PPR commodity. The Browns have given up only seven catches for 56 yards to RBs, though. Play with caution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA CLE 4004200000 **
Arian Foster saw 10 offensive snaps before leaving Week 2 with an injury. The touch breakdown concluded with Ajayi seeing 57 percent of the plays, while Kenyan Drake received 15 percent. A week after being inactive, Ajayi lead Miami's offense in action. The Browns are respectable against his position, ranking as the 11th toughest in two weeks (PHI, BAL as opponents). Slide Ajayi into your flex spot this week, only if you must play him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA CLE 0081202000 ***
Ten teams have been easier on the position than Cleveland. The Browns have given up the second most TDs to wideouts this year. Landry is obviously a PPR threat any given week, but this one could be an extremely fruitful matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA CLE 006801000 ***
It may surprise you to realize Parker has just one fewer point than Jarvis Landry in PPR over the past seven games, dating back to 2015. Cleveland has permitted four touchdowns on only 23 catches to wide receivers, good for the 11th softest matchup for the position. Parker played 92 percent of the snaps in Week 2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA CLE 002300000 ***
Stills was on the field more any any Dolphins receiver in Week 2's furious but failed comeback bid against New England. The PT translated to only four targets, but one of which found the end zone. Play him in DFS and as a traditional flex or risky WR3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA CLE 004400000 **
While the Browns haven't given up a tight end touchdown yet, they are allowing the sixth most points to the position by way of the highest number of receptions (17) and yardage (193). A "bend but don't break" defense indeed. Cameron is a solid sleeper play in Week 3.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA CLE 2233 ***
Franks is barely playable but could turn in a good outing for brazen fantasy owners.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA -----
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND -----
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 50 2-20
RB LeSean McCoy 100 5-30
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are on a three game losing streak thanks to a one point loss to the Titans, playing in Houston and then nearly beating the Patriots in their stadium. The defense continues to be the problem area but this week is at home in a divisional game against a well-known opponent. Unfortunately, this week and the Jaguars game are the only two times that the Bills may be favored in a game. This should be a must win because it is a "can win".

Ryan Fitzpatrick started the year red hot and then cooled significantly with three games of no touchdowns and minor yardage. But he's always scored at last twice in all home games and this is the weakness of the Dolphins defense. Last year he posted 316 yards and two scores when the Fins visited.

Fred Jackson suffered a concussion in the New England game and has been ruled out this week. C.J. Spiller gets to shoulder the load this week and that's been when he is at his best both last year and earlier this season. Spiller has already been solid with 70+ rushing yards in three of the last four games and catches at least four passes every week for up to 61 yards. The Dolphins are very good against running backs but this one is in Buffalo, there is no splitting with Jackson and Spiller is a dual threat.

Scott Chandler comes off his season best 65 yards in New England where he scored his fifth touchdown this year. He's consistent with around 40 or 50 yards in most games. His last three touchdowns all came in the two meetings with the Patriots.

Donald Jones is inconsistent at best but he's scored four times this year and has been used for six receptions the last couple of weeks - even more than Stevie Johnson who's only caught a touchdown once in the last six weeks. No receivers in this offense have produced a 100 yard game and the passing game is mostly limited to Jones, Johnson, Chandler and Spiller.

The Fins are very good against running backs allowing only Chris Johnson and Arian Foster to have a decent game against them. They've only given up three rushing scores this year and held almost all runners to 60 yards or fewer.

The Dolphins secondary is the problem and every opposing quarterback has scored at least once. Only twice has an opponent failed to throw for at least 250 yards so this is a game that will be decided by the success of Fitzpatrick.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 18 4 25 21 30 18
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 22 5 29 16 22 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF ARI 20000020001 ***
Taylor erupted with big plays in Week 2, but this go of it won't be as easy. He takes on a Cardinals' pass defense that ranks ninth against the position, allowing only 17.7 fantasy points per game. Only daily gamers can consider him a viable option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF ARI 6014200000 ***
Don't sit your studs, but be cautious with McCoy. First of all, the matchup looks brutal on paper. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to RBs. The matchup looks much worse than it is after Doug Martin went down in Week 2. LeGarrette Blount mustered 70 yards and a TD in the opener.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF ARI 002400000 ***
The home run Goodwin clobbered in Week 2 is the only reason he is in the fantasy conversation at this point. Avoid him in all traditional setups, even though Arizona is a sound matchup. DFS only.

Update: The expected loss of Sammy Watkins this week means more looks for Goodwin, but he's largely a one-trick pony. As previously noted, DFS only.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF ARI 004400000 ***
With all of the attention on Sammy Watkins, Woods may see an increased target count. Play him if you are truly desperate or looking for a DFS gamble. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position so far, and garbage-time points could be a real scenario here.

Update: Sammy Watkins (foot) is a game-time decision and not expected to go ... bump up Woods based on the sheer volume increase, but he's still a barely worthy play in most situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Salas, BUF ARI 003400000 ***
Buffalo's slot receiver can spring up now and again, but fantasy owners shouldn't look his way due to a lack of consistency and targets.

Update: Sammy Watkins and Charles Clay are both questionable. Salas might see more looks, if it matters, although he, too, is listed as as questionable with a groin strain. Clay and Salas were limited practice participants Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF ARI 004400000 ***
Arizona faced two teams with tight end issues so far, resulting in this D giving up only eight catches for 44 yards. Clay isn't involved enough to warrant consideration, but he is a big-play guy, so a TD is not a crazy expectation.

Update: Clay is questionable but practiced in a limited fashion Friday. He may be hampered, but the uncertain nature of Sammy Watkins' playing time opens the door for Clay to see more targets. Tread cautiously.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF ARI 3311 ***
Buffalo's offense is just good enough in this matchup to give Carpenter several chances from downtown.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t