FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: NYJ 13, STL 23 (Line: STL by 3)

Players to Watch: Danny Amendola, Sam Bradford, Not Tim Tebow

The 3-6 Jets are on a three game losing streak and are only 1-3 on the road. The 3-5-1 Rams come off a tie just to make the world use that extra column in the standings for the first time in five years. Imagine this game where the Rams have the better defense and are exceeding expectations as far as the Jets are falling short of their own.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-60
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: HC Rex Ryan might as well make a recording of how he still supports Mark Sanchez and is not going to change quarterbacks because he has to state it immediately at the start of every press conference. By this point, "I am sticking with Sanchez" is pretty much just a part of Ryan introducing himself.

Sanchez comes off a 124 yard effort in Seattle which is not his worst game. So far the only time that he has any fantasy value has been when facing a divisional opponent. Literally. He has three games over 266 yards and all were against BUF, MIA or NE. He's lucky to break 200 yards otherwise and he's only thrown four touchdowns over his five non-divisional matchups.

Shonn Greene chugs along with a more typical 58 rushing yards on 15 carries in Seattle and aside from home games against weak defenses, he's just a guy who rarely catches a pass, almost never scores and has never gained more than 68 yards in any road game. In recent weeks he's getting nearly every carry for the Jets and it still doesn't really matter.

Dustin Keller cooled down a bit when he settled for three catches for 47 yards in Seattle but he remains one of the better targets for Sanchez and is averaging about 65 yards per game over the last three weeks since he returned.

The wideouts are a mishmash of inexperience and one-game wonders. Jeremy Kerley is the only receiver with any semblance of consistent production but that;s only around 50 yards in most games and he hasn't scored since week three. He gets the most coverage by the defense because he is the best receiver the Jets have. And that says a lot. Clyde Gates now sandwiched his seven catch game against the Dolphins with two efforts that only contained a single catch. There is no fantasy value here aside from some marginal yardage by Kerley.

The Rams were burned by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but that beats no relevance to the Jets offense. The Rams already held three teams to no passing scores so expectations should remain low for the Jets yet again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 28 23 23 28 7
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 21 18 12 22 17 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, NYJ @BUF 50000019011 ***
The Bills shut out Vick a month ago and have allowed just two TD passes in two games since. Vick is getting more comfortable in the offense but he's still a fringe fantasy option at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @BUF 400000000 ***
The Jets broke Buffalo's maiden with three RB TDs when they met back in Week 8; that total accounts for 75 percent of all the RB TDs the Bills have allowed this season. Can lightning strike twice? Risky to bet a fantasy start on that happening here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @BUF 2002200000 ***
Johnson is hanging around as the Jets' change of pace back, but he was ineffective when last these teams met and isn't likely to see enough touches to warrant fantasy consideration here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @BUF 2006601000 **
Harvin is getting his touches, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's a viable fantasy play. Between the Jets' struggling pass defense and a stout Buffalo run D you likely have a more reliable fantasy option at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @BUF 005500000 ***
Decker is now essentially splitting the targets with Percy Harvin, and while that still puts him atop the Jets' passing game pecking order often times there simply isn't enough productivity to go around. It wasn't enough the last time these teams met, and this week's rematch is shaping up much the same way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @BUF 003200000 ***
Buffalo has allowed only two TE TDs all year, but Amaro did have 51 yards in the previous meeting and scored last week so he's a fringe fantasy option here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @BUF 3311 ****
Folk scored five points when the Jets hosted the Bills a month ago; he's done nothing this year to suggest a big uptick on that number when he heads to Buffalo this week.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF 24-24
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB 20-30 16 @TB -----
8 NE 7-45 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 250,1
WR Chris Givens 3-50
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams stopped their three game slide with a tie in San Francisco that has to be scored as a win all things considered. After giving up 75 points to the Packers and Patriots, the Rams defense played far better in San Francisco against a much less prolific offense. More notable was the offense that became very productive against a stout defense. This week should be the softest matchup left on the schedule and one that the Rams can win.

Sam Bradford has been a disappointment again this year but at least he's scored in each of the last three games and remained above 200 yards for the last month. His 275 yards and two scores with no interceptions in San Francisco is his most impressive accomplishment of the year. Bradford always scores unless facing one of the top defenses which no longer describes the Jets.

In one of those "go figure" sort of games, Stephen Jackson finally broke 100 rushing yards for the first time this year while on the road against his toughest opponent. He's scored in two of the last three games while Daryl Richardson has been held to only seven runs in recent games. Jackson's 29 runs in San Francisco is his heaviest workload in the past year. He's been much more likely to remain around 60 rushing yards in other games.

Danny Amendola is back and though he missed five games with a broken clavicle, you wouldn't know it. He merely caught 11 of his 12 targets for 102 yards in San Francisco and had a 79-yard catch in overtime called back on an unrelated penalty. He's not exactly durable but he is undeniably the best weapon in this offense and the reason why Bradford suddenly passed for 275 yards against a good secondary. Chris Givens was a game-time scratch for violating curfew and that allowed Brian Quick to score on his only pass in the game. Brandon Gibson offers minor production every week but overall this remains a ragtag bunch vastly improved with Amendola back in the lineup. They Rams also use him for returning punts and kicks so yeah, he's going to get hurt again.

The Jets on the road have allowed two passing scores to three of their four opponents but no one has produced a 300 yard game against them. The rushing defense has taken a down turn in recent weeks largely from the Jets inept offense not keeping them in games and their opponents just getting a higher volume of carries to share.

What works here is that the Jets seem like a team teetering on implosion while the Rams are looking better. Throw in a home venue and this should go the Rams way.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 23 25 11 27 19 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 22 1 28 23 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Shaun Hill, STL @SD 0000021011 ****
The Chargers haven't allowed a visiting QB to throw multiple touchdowns against them since Russell Wilson turned the trick back in Week 2. And Hill has just one TD on the year, so he's an unlikely candidate to snap that string.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tre Mason, STL @SD 7011100000 ***
The Chargers haven't allowed much on the ground; then again, only two opposing backs have had at least 20 carries against them, and both topped 95 yards. So if Mason gets a workload similar to last week he should be a fantasy factor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Benny Cunningham, STL @SD 1003301000 **
Cunningham clings to value as a change of pace back to Tre Mason. He's been seeing more work as a receiver of late, and there's some fantasy value there against a defense that's allowed the second-most RB receiving TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL @SD 003400000 ***
Britt has scored in two of the last three, had a monster game with Shaun Hill at the helm... and has just about sucked enough people into believing he's finally tapped into his vast potential that it's time for him to vanish once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavon Austin, STL @SD 1002100000 ***
Eventually the Rams will figure out how to use Austin. Keep repeating that, and click your heels together three times and it just might come true.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL @SD 002200000 **
It's a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that's allowed only two TE TDs all year--especially when Cook often times cedes red zone looks to Lance Kendricks. You can find a more reliable fantasy option elsewhere.
Update: Cook is listed as questionable and practiced only on a limited basis this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL @SD 0022 ***
Legatron is coming off a five-FG game, his first notable fantasy outing in two months. A repeat is unlikely on the road, where he has two field goals in his last four games.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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