FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: NYJ 13, STL 23 (Line: STL by 3)

Players to Watch: Danny Amendola, Sam Bradford, Not Tim Tebow

The 3-6 Jets are on a three game losing streak and are only 1-3 on the road. The 3-5-1 Rams come off a tie just to make the world use that extra column in the standings for the first time in five years. Imagine this game where the Rams have the better defense and are exceeding expectations as far as the Jets are falling short of their own.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Alex Green 30 2-20
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 2-10
RB Daryl Richardson 40 2-20
WR Eric Decker 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-60
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: HC Rex Ryan might as well make a recording of how he still supports Mark Sanchez and is not going to change quarterbacks because he has to state it immediately at the start of every press conference. By this point, "I am sticking with Sanchez" is pretty much just a part of Ryan introducing himself.

Sanchez comes off a 124 yard effort in Seattle which is not his worst game. So far the only time that he has any fantasy value has been when facing a divisional opponent. Literally. He has three games over 266 yards and all were against BUF, MIA or NE. He's lucky to break 200 yards otherwise and he's only thrown four touchdowns over his five non-divisional matchups.

Shonn Greene chugs along with a more typical 58 rushing yards on 15 carries in Seattle and aside from home games against weak defenses, he's just a guy who rarely catches a pass, almost never scores and has never gained more than 68 yards in any road game. In recent weeks he's getting nearly every carry for the Jets and it still doesn't really matter.

Dustin Keller cooled down a bit when he settled for three catches for 47 yards in Seattle but he remains one of the better targets for Sanchez and is averaging about 65 yards per game over the last three weeks since he returned.

The wideouts are a mishmash of inexperience and one-game wonders. Jeremy Kerley is the only receiver with any semblance of consistent production but that;s only around 50 yards in most games and he hasn't scored since week three. He gets the most coverage by the defense because he is the best receiver the Jets have. And that says a lot. Clyde Gates now sandwiched his seven catch game against the Dolphins with two efforts that only contained a single catch. There is no fantasy value here aside from some marginal yardage by Kerley.

The Rams were burned by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but that beats no relevance to the Jets offense. The Rams already held three teams to no passing scores so expectations should remain low for the Jets yet again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 28 23 23 28 7
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 21 18 12 22 17 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @MIA 40000020012 ***
Smith has rushing scores in two of his last three which have elevated his fantasy numbers to almost startable status. However, he threw for 29 yards--that's not a typo, just two digits, less than 90 feet of passing production--in the earlier meeting with Miami and it would take serious stones to trot him out in any self-respecting fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @MIA 10003200000 ***
Johnson rushed for 96 yards in Houston back in Week 2 and is coming off another 90-yard game last week. However, Shonn Greene also topped 90 yards on almost as many carries and also swiped a touchdown so temper your CJ?K expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @MIA 600000000 ****
Ivory has been the Jets' primary ball-carrier four straight games, resulting in one TD and a 109-yard effort last week. He should see more than the dozen carries he handled in the earlier meeting with Miami, and if he maintains the five yards per carry he averaged in that game (as well as last week) he should be a significant fantasy helper against a defense that served up 195 rushing yards to Buffalo last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @MIA 0061101000 ***
Everybody got fed the last time these squads met--Demaryius Thomas 94 yards, Decker 133 & 1, Wes Welker 84 & 1--and there's no reason to expect much difference this time around. The only difference is that with Welker out Decker has seen a little more activity--hardly a bad thing when Peyton Manning is slinging the pigskin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @MIA 004500000 ***
Kerley turned a team-high 11 targets last week into five catches for 70 yards; for the Jets passing attack, that passes for a monster game. Get your fantasy help elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Cumberland, NYJ @MIA 002201000 **
The Jets have one TE TD in the past five games, and with Cumberland and Kellen Winslow splitting the looks it's impossible to bank on either for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @MIA 2211 ****
Folk was more effective earlier in the season, but over the past six games he's hit double-digits just once. That stretch included a three-point effort against Miami a month back; seems overly optimistic to look for much more this time around.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF 24-24
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB 20-30 16 @TB -----
8 NE 7-45 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 250,1
WR Chris Givens 3-50
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams stopped their three game slide with a tie in San Francisco that has to be scored as a win all things considered. After giving up 75 points to the Packers and Patriots, the Rams defense played far better in San Francisco against a much less prolific offense. More notable was the offense that became very productive against a stout defense. This week should be the softest matchup left on the schedule and one that the Rams can win.

Sam Bradford has been a disappointment again this year but at least he's scored in each of the last three games and remained above 200 yards for the last month. His 275 yards and two scores with no interceptions in San Francisco is his most impressive accomplishment of the year. Bradford always scores unless facing one of the top defenses which no longer describes the Jets.

In one of those "go figure" sort of games, Stephen Jackson finally broke 100 rushing yards for the first time this year while on the road against his toughest opponent. He's scored in two of the last three games while Daryl Richardson has been held to only seven runs in recent games. Jackson's 29 runs in San Francisco is his heaviest workload in the past year. He's been much more likely to remain around 60 rushing yards in other games.

Danny Amendola is back and though he missed five games with a broken clavicle, you wouldn't know it. He merely caught 11 of his 12 targets for 102 yards in San Francisco and had a 79-yard catch in overtime called back on an unrelated penalty. He's not exactly durable but he is undeniably the best weapon in this offense and the reason why Bradford suddenly passed for 275 yards against a good secondary. Chris Givens was a game-time scratch for violating curfew and that allowed Brian Quick to score on his only pass in the game. Brandon Gibson offers minor production every week but overall this remains a ragtag bunch vastly improved with Amendola back in the lineup. They Rams also use him for returning punts and kicks so yeah, he's going to get hurt again.

The Jets on the road have allowed two passing scores to three of their four opponents but no one has produced a 300 yard game against them. The rushing defense has taken a down turn in recent weeks largely from the Jets inept offense not keeping them in games and their opponents just getting a higher volume of carries to share.

What works here is that the Jets seem like a team teetering on implosion while the Rams are looking better. Throw in a home venue and this should go the Rams way.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 23 25 11 27 19 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 22 1 28 23 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL @SEA 7002100000 ****
Stacy rolled up a season-high 134 yards when the Seahawks visited St. Louis in Week 8, and he's scored in both Arizona and Carolina. Not much more to be proved, so while a TD in Seattle is a tough get Stacy has the resume to suggest he'll snag one.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavon Austin, STL @SEA 2003400000 ***
If you're forced to start a member of the St. Louis passing game, at least Austin has return-game upside. If he's healthy, that is.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Austin Pettis, STL @SEA 002200000 ***
To identify which wide receiver could have success in St. Louis, we suggest a dart, a coin, and a 20-sided die. Good luck.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL @SEA 003400000 ***
Cook is sharing looks with Lance Kendricks in an unfavorable matchup with the Seahawks; none of that sounds like much in the way of fantasy assistance.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL @SEA 1100 ***
The Seahawks don't give up much to kickers, even less at home, so despite the nine Zuerlein mustered in the earlier meeting you'll want to get your kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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