FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: NYJ 13, STL 23 (Line: STL by 3)

Players to Watch: Danny Amendola, Sam Bradford, Not Tim Tebow

The 3-6 Jets are on a three game losing streak and are only 1-3 on the road. The 3-5-1 Rams come off a tie just to make the world use that extra column in the standings for the first time in five years. Imagine this game where the Rams have the better defense and are exceeding expectations as far as the Jets are falling short of their own.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-60
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: HC Rex Ryan might as well make a recording of how he still supports Mark Sanchez and is not going to change quarterbacks because he has to state it immediately at the start of every press conference. By this point, "I am sticking with Sanchez" is pretty much just a part of Ryan introducing himself.

Sanchez comes off a 124 yard effort in Seattle which is not his worst game. So far the only time that he has any fantasy value has been when facing a divisional opponent. Literally. He has three games over 266 yards and all were against BUF, MIA or NE. He's lucky to break 200 yards otherwise and he's only thrown four touchdowns over his five non-divisional matchups.

Shonn Greene chugs along with a more typical 58 rushing yards on 15 carries in Seattle and aside from home games against weak defenses, he's just a guy who rarely catches a pass, almost never scores and has never gained more than 68 yards in any road game. In recent weeks he's getting nearly every carry for the Jets and it still doesn't really matter.

Dustin Keller cooled down a bit when he settled for three catches for 47 yards in Seattle but he remains one of the better targets for Sanchez and is averaging about 65 yards per game over the last three weeks since he returned.

The wideouts are a mishmash of inexperience and one-game wonders. Jeremy Kerley is the only receiver with any semblance of consistent production but that;s only around 50 yards in most games and he hasn't scored since week three. He gets the most coverage by the defense because he is the best receiver the Jets have. And that says a lot. Clyde Gates now sandwiched his seven catch game against the Dolphins with two efforts that only contained a single catch. There is no fantasy value here aside from some marginal yardage by Kerley.

The Rams were burned by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but that beats no relevance to the Jets offense. The Rams already held three teams to no passing scores so expectations should remain low for the Jets yet again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 28 23 23 28 7
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 21 18 12 22 17 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ CHI 40100020001 ***
Passing alone won't make Geno a viable fantasy helper, but he's had 17 attempts in two games and could use his ground game to be a sneaky start against a defense that let EJ Manual run one in and Colin Kaepernick run for 66 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ CHI 5011100000 ***
Ivory has scored in both games thus far and is proving to be the more productive member of the Jets' backfield committee. Against a Bears defense that's already allowed four different backs to rush for at least 50 yards against them, he's an good fantasy start with a little bit of upside to boot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ CHI 6004200000 ***
Johnson is getting the touches, and against a Chicago D that's allowed four backs to top 50 yards this year he should be able to turn those touches into at least fringe fantasy help. And of course any of those touches could be a home run.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ CHI 005600000 *
Decker has been exactly what the Jets paid for, a reliable WR1. This matchup, while not overly favorable, should still allow him to generate his usual low-to-mid level fantasy contribution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ CHI 005500000 ***
Kerley's 30-yards per game average isn't going to cut it fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jeff Cumberland, NYJ CHI 002200000 ***
The Jets' passing game doesn't produce enough for one fantasy helper at tight end, let alone the three players all battling for a share of the pie.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ CHI 3322 ***
The Jets don't mind settling for field goals, which is good, but they don't score a ton of points in general, which is bad.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF 24-24
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB 20-30 16 @TB -----
8 NE 7-45 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 250,1
WR Chris Givens 3-50
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams stopped their three game slide with a tie in San Francisco that has to be scored as a win all things considered. After giving up 75 points to the Packers and Patriots, the Rams defense played far better in San Francisco against a much less prolific offense. More notable was the offense that became very productive against a stout defense. This week should be the softest matchup left on the schedule and one that the Rams can win.

Sam Bradford has been a disappointment again this year but at least he's scored in each of the last three games and remained above 200 yards for the last month. His 275 yards and two scores with no interceptions in San Francisco is his most impressive accomplishment of the year. Bradford always scores unless facing one of the top defenses which no longer describes the Jets.

In one of those "go figure" sort of games, Stephen Jackson finally broke 100 rushing yards for the first time this year while on the road against his toughest opponent. He's scored in two of the last three games while Daryl Richardson has been held to only seven runs in recent games. Jackson's 29 runs in San Francisco is his heaviest workload in the past year. He's been much more likely to remain around 60 rushing yards in other games.

Danny Amendola is back and though he missed five games with a broken clavicle, you wouldn't know it. He merely caught 11 of his 12 targets for 102 yards in San Francisco and had a 79-yard catch in overtime called back on an unrelated penalty. He's not exactly durable but he is undeniably the best weapon in this offense and the reason why Bradford suddenly passed for 275 yards against a good secondary. Chris Givens was a game-time scratch for violating curfew and that allowed Brian Quick to score on his only pass in the game. Brandon Gibson offers minor production every week but overall this remains a ragtag bunch vastly improved with Amendola back in the lineup. They Rams also use him for returning punts and kicks so yeah, he's going to get hurt again.

The Jets on the road have allowed two passing scores to three of their four opponents but no one has produced a 300 yard game against them. The rushing defense has taken a down turn in recent weeks largely from the Jets inept offense not keeping them in games and their opponents just getting a higher volume of carries to share.

What works here is that the Jets seem like a team teetering on implosion while the Rams are looking better. Throw in a home venue and this should go the Rams way.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 23 25 11 27 19 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 22 1 28 23 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Austin Davis, STL DAL 0000021011 ***
The Rams are still looking for their first TD pass of the season. Until they get one, look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL DAL 6011100000 ***
The Cowboys are giving up almost five yards a carry, and the Rams have no passing game. You do the math.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, STL DAL 007800000 ***
The Cowboys, shockingly enough, have yet to surrender a WR TD this year. The Rams, to the surprise of no one, have yet to score one. Quick is the most likely to snap that streak, but it's hardly a given.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL DAL 001300000 ***
At his current pace, Britt should get two catches this week. You can afford to wait and see if he continues this torrid climb towards fantasy respectability.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL DAL 005601000 ****
Cooks is a consistent provider of adequate fantasy numbers, but he could most definitely see an uptick against a defense that's already ceded three TE TDs and 186 yards to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL DAL 1122 ***
Legatron has six treys in two games, but he's kicking an uphill battle against a Cowboys defense that's allowed just one FG through the first two games.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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