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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: NYJ 13, STL 23 (Line: STL by 3)

Players to Watch: Danny Amendola, Sam Bradford, Not Tim Tebow

The 3-6 Jets are on a three game losing streak and are only 1-3 on the road. The 3-5-1 Rams come off a tie just to make the world use that extra column in the standings for the first time in five years. Imagine this game where the Rams have the better defense and are exceeding expectations as far as the Jets are falling short of their own.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL -----
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE -----
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-100,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-60
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: HC Rex Ryan might as well make a recording of how he still supports Mark Sanchez and is not going to change quarterbacks because he has to state it immediately at the start of every press conference. By this point, "I am sticking with Sanchez" is pretty much just a part of Ryan introducing himself.

Sanchez comes off a 124 yard effort in Seattle which is not his worst game. So far the only time that he has any fantasy value has been when facing a divisional opponent. Literally. He has three games over 266 yards and all were against BUF, MIA or NE. He's lucky to break 200 yards otherwise and he's only thrown four touchdowns over his five non-divisional matchups.

Shonn Greene chugs along with a more typical 58 rushing yards on 15 carries in Seattle and aside from home games against weak defenses, he's just a guy who rarely catches a pass, almost never scores and has never gained more than 68 yards in any road game. In recent weeks he's getting nearly every carry for the Jets and it still doesn't really matter.

Dustin Keller cooled down a bit when he settled for three catches for 47 yards in Seattle but he remains one of the better targets for Sanchez and is averaging about 65 yards per game over the last three weeks since he returned.

The wideouts are a mishmash of inexperience and one-game wonders. Jeremy Kerley is the only receiver with any semblance of consistent production but that;s only around 50 yards in most games and he hasn't scored since week three. He gets the most coverage by the defense because he is the best receiver the Jets have. And that says a lot. Clyde Gates now sandwiched his seven catch game against the Dolphins with two efforts that only contained a single catch. There is no fantasy value here aside from some marginal yardage by Kerley.

The Rams were burned by Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady but that beats no relevance to the Jets offense. The Rams already held three teams to no passing scores so expectations should remain low for the Jets yet again.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 28 23 23 28 7
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 21 18 12 22 17 17

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @NE 20000019011 ***
It's actually a sneaky favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that's allowed multiple TD tosses in three straight games. But it'll take a rushing score for Smith to be a real fantasy factor, and the Pats haven't allowed one yet this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @NE 4002100000 ****
Ivory may be the lead dog but he's still sharing at least some of the workload. And against a Patriots defense that's giving up 65 rushing yards per game at home, even a share won't be enough to move the fantasy needle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @NE 3001100000 ***
CJicK is seeing his touches and production dwindle, to the point he probably doesn't even warrant a fantasy roster spot at this juncture.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @NE 003401000 **
Kerley isn't doing much with the second-tier looks he's getting in the Jets' passing game. If you're banking on fantasy help here you're playing the "not covered by Darrelle Revis" card. There are better cards in the deck.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @NE 004500000 ****
We're sayin' there's a chance, as the Patriots have allowed four WR TDs in the past two games. That said, if Decker winds up on the business end of Darrelle Revis... well, that's not going to end well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @NE 00000000 **
With Harvin you're hoping the Seahawks find enough ways to get him the ball that he busts a big play. Against a Rams' defense that's allowed seven WR TDs in just the past three games, there's a good shot Percy does just that.
Update: Harvin has been traded to the Jets, who have already played this week. So any pipe dreams of Harvin playing a full 16 games this year... poof.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @NE 005500000 ****
Over the past three games the Pats have surrendered 8-93-1 to Travis Kelce and 6-105 to Scott Chandler. With Amaro's targets--and productivity--on the dramatic rise, you have to like his chances for a fantasy helper here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @NE 1111 ****
Aside from the week the Jets were shut out, Folk has consistently produced mediocre numbers. You're okay with him, but you can probably do better elsewhere.

St. Louis Rams
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @DET 23-27 10 @SF 24-24
2 WAS 31-28 11 NYJ -----
3 @CHI 6-23 12 @ARI -----
4 SEA 19-13 13 SF -----
5 ARI 17-3 14 @BUF -----
6 @MIA 14-17 15 MIN -----
7 GB 20-30 16 @TB -----
8 NE 7-45 17 @SEA -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
STL vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 250,1
WR Chris Givens 3-50
TE Lance Kendricks 2-20
PK Greg Zuerlein 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams stopped their three game slide with a tie in San Francisco that has to be scored as a win all things considered. After giving up 75 points to the Packers and Patriots, the Rams defense played far better in San Francisco against a much less prolific offense. More notable was the offense that became very productive against a stout defense. This week should be the softest matchup left on the schedule and one that the Rams can win.

Sam Bradford has been a disappointment again this year but at least he's scored in each of the last three games and remained above 200 yards for the last month. His 275 yards and two scores with no interceptions in San Francisco is his most impressive accomplishment of the year. Bradford always scores unless facing one of the top defenses which no longer describes the Jets.

In one of those "go figure" sort of games, Stephen Jackson finally broke 100 rushing yards for the first time this year while on the road against his toughest opponent. He's scored in two of the last three games while Daryl Richardson has been held to only seven runs in recent games. Jackson's 29 runs in San Francisco is his heaviest workload in the past year. He's been much more likely to remain around 60 rushing yards in other games.

Danny Amendola is back and though he missed five games with a broken clavicle, you wouldn't know it. He merely caught 11 of his 12 targets for 102 yards in San Francisco and had a 79-yard catch in overtime called back on an unrelated penalty. He's not exactly durable but he is undeniably the best weapon in this offense and the reason why Bradford suddenly passed for 275 yards against a good secondary. Chris Givens was a game-time scratch for violating curfew and that allowed Brian Quick to score on his only pass in the game. Brandon Gibson offers minor production every week but overall this remains a ragtag bunch vastly improved with Amendola back in the lineup. They Rams also use him for returning punts and kicks so yeah, he's going to get hurt again.

The Jets on the road have allowed two passing scores to three of their four opponents but no one has produced a 300 yard game against them. The rushing defense has taken a down turn in recent weeks largely from the Jets inept offense not keeping them in games and their opponents just getting a higher volume of carries to share.

What works here is that the Jets seem like a team teetering on implosion while the Rams are looking better. Throw in a home venue and this should go the Rams way.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 23 25 11 27 19 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 22 1 28 23 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Austin Davis, STL SEA 0000024021 **
The Seahawks have allowed multiple TD tosses and at least 250 passing yards in each of their last four games. So while prior to the season using the Rams' third string quarterback against the defending Super Bowl champs would have been enough to get you a date with a mental health professional, this week it actually makes sense. Davis against the Seahaws; who woulda thunk?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zac Stacy, STL SEA 4003200000 ***
The Cowboys have been the only team to effectively run the ball against Seattle, but the Rams ain't the Cowboys and Stacy ain't DeMarco Murray. Plus, he's now involved in a menage a trois at running back, sharing carries with Benny Cunningham and, appropriately enough, Tre Mason. None of that adds up to good fantasy news for Stacy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Benny Cunningham, STL SEA 3003200000 ***
The good: Cunningham has two of the Rams' three RB rushing scores this year. The bad: he's facing a Seahawks defense that allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and 78 rushing yards per game to opposing backs. The ugly: Benny has to share the workload with two other Rams backs. The way I figure, there's really not too much future here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tre Mason, STL SEA 300000000 ***
Mason averaged eight yards per carry in his NFL debut and now owns a share of the Rams' backfield workload. However, it's just a share and it's anything but a favorable matchup; his initial fantasy impact will have to wait at least another week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Britt, STL SEA 003501000 **
Britt's been consistently targeted if not consistently productive, and there are opportunities to take advantage of the Seattle secondary. If Brian Quick can't take advantage, Britt would be the next best bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, STL SEA 004500000 ***
The Seahawks secondary hasn't been infallible, but good luck identifying which Ram might do the damage. Quick seems the logical choice, but that only means there's a very good chance he'll see more of Richard Sherman than the average TV viewer subjected to Sherman's media blitz of commercial saturation. Temper your expectations accordingly, because you get out what you put in.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tavon Austin, STL SEA 004300000 ***
Tough to be the second-best "athletic receiver whose team can't figure out how to get them the ball enough to be effective" in the game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, STL SEA 006601000 ****
Even Achilles had a heel, and for the Seahawks that heel is the tight end. Seattle has allowed seven TE TDs on the season, including two last week, and with 30 targets over the past three games it's clear Cook is on the Rams' passing game radar.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Greg Zuerlein, STL SEA 2222 ****
Legatron has just one week of double-digit points this season, and a date with the Seahawks doesn't feel like an opportunity to change that number.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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