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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 27, WAS 30 (Line: WAS by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III

At least someone has to win this. The 3-6 Eagles are on a five game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road. The 3-6 Redskins are just 1-3 at home and are on a three game losing streak. This is truly a coin flip game because neither team is playing well or scoring many points.

The Eagles swept the Redskins in 2011, winning 20-13 in Washington and then 34-10 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,2
RB Ryan Mathews
RB Darren Sproles 5-40,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 4-50,1
TE Brent Celek 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The season is already over and the five game losing streak is all but certain to shake up coaching staffs and probably a few players as well. The offense has been largely punchless all season with never more than 24 points in any game and with a defense that is not bad, but not quite good enough. With three road games in the next four weeks, the trends are likely to continue.

This could change, at least in theory. Michael Vick is out with a concussion (said while making quote marks in the air with fingers) this week and many speculate that we won't see Vick as a starter the rest of the year. And maybe not even in Philly at all in 2013. Vick has done nothing to change his moniker of "Coach Killer" and it looks like he's grabbed another $100 million contract and this time brought down the most senior head coach in the NFL.

That means that not only does Nick Foles get his first start, but instead of making it last week against the tough Dallas secondary, it comes now. Against the Redskins and their #31 defense against quarterbacks. Timing is nice on that one. The Skins have already allowed 299+ yards to seven different quarterbacks. And every team throws at least one scoring pass if not two or three.

Foles is in luck. He inherits a pretty good set of receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. He has what should be a credible ground game with LeSean McCoy. For fantasy purposes, predicting the outcome here is tough with almost nothing to go on. Jackson and Maclin get the benefit of facing a truly bad secondary while Celek faces the #32 defense against tight ends. This may be hard to call, but it is about as good of a situation for a first start as Foles could hope for.

Jason Avant pulled his hamstring and is expected to be out. Riley Cooper will take his place.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 13 12 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 11 30 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI DAL 10100023011 ***
Dallas is a fringe matchup for quarterbacks, but the Cowboys have nothing on the line this week, so look for some key personnel to get a break. The rookie authored a 13.8-point fantasy day in Week 8 against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt McGloin, PHI DAL 0000015002 *
The tall task of replacing Derek Carr starts off with the worst possible matchup in fantasy this week. While McGloin may prove in time to be able to win games, he should not be relied on in fantasy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI DAL 7015400000 ***
Sproles should lead in touches against a Dallas team giving up 4.8 receptions a game to the position since Week 11. Otherwise, it's not a great matchup, with Dallas allowing only three RB scores in the last five games. Perhaps that improves if the Cowboys rest key players.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI DAL 701000000 ***
Miami has yielded four RB touchdowns in the last five weeks, but two have come through the air. The bruising back posted a 29-123-1 line in Week 2 against the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Byron Marshall, PHI DAL 3001100000 ***
The undrafted rookie from Oregon will play second fiddle to Darren Sproles in what has been a low-end matchup for RBs over the last five games. The Cowboys have given up the fourth fewest points per game to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI DAL 004401000 *
Matthews landed 11 of 14 targets for 65 yards and a TD in Week 8's matchup with the Cowboys. Dallas has nothing at stake and may opt for resting key players. Matthews is a strong choice in most any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Turner, PHI DAL 003401000 *
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI DAL 004500000 ***
Jeffery had a respectable day in Week 8 against this defense (4-63-1). The Vikings have regressed since then, but Matt Barkley has been a turnover machine in his last two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI DAL 003500000 ***
DGB is merely a gamble in the deepest of formats. Keep him parked, unless you have a scoring-only league that is begging for crazy flier plays.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI DAL 004400000 ***
Stats-wise, this is the best matchup in Week 17 when using data since Week 11. The Cowboys have given up 20.6 PPR points to the position, on average. Ertz was quiet in the last one, but he has been more involved lately. Consider this a conservative projection.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI DAL 1133 ***
Dallas is the 13th best FGA matchup, but only five teams have been harsher for extra point kicks.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are 3-6 with a three game losing streak and reality has set in. No playoffs - again - and no certainty that they will finish any better than the 5-11 record from last year. Or the 6-10 they produced in Shanahan's first year. Most coaches get two to four years in Washington so Mike Shanahan may just make it to next year. Or not. He has stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes which means even less reliability on guessing what he will do. Short of Robert Griffin III, anyone on the team may be replaced next year. There are certainly reasons to do that.

Robert Griffin III injured his ribs in the Carolina but still played after getting a pain injection at halftime and is not expected to have any problems here two weeks afterwards. Griffin's only passed for eight touchdowns in nine games and while he turned in six touchdowns as a runner through week six, he did not score on the ground in the last three games. Only one of his last five games produced more than 215 passing yards thought he usually gains 50+ yards as a runner. To his credit, he's only passed for three interceptions.

Alfred Morris was running well through week five with every game totaling more than 78 yards and scoring four times but he's only managed one touchdown in the last five games and is much less effective. His last two games only allowed him 13 carries each and never more than 76 yards. He was a solid RB2 if not RB1 to start the year but has declined to marginal stats in recent games. With a touch schedule looming, he'll be challenged to turn it around and there is always the chance that Shanahan wants to see what some other back would do in a game for next year's purposes.

The receivers remain so sub-standard that it is hard to imagine all of them returning next year if even most of them. Josh Morgan never scores and only once gained more than 50 yards in a game. Aldrick Robinson doesn't even catch a pass every week. Leonard Hankerson scored just once back in week two but has been without fantasy relevance since. Santana Moss is the only receiver of any not with five touchdowns but in games without a score, he's never been better than 47 yards and his most recent game - one catch for two yards - shows how unreliable he is.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 4 22 19 19 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 11 13 11 13 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS NYG 0000030021 ***
In the past five games, the Giants have allowed a five TDs while picking off as many passes. This rates as one of the 10 worst matchups for Week 17. Cousins has the slight benefit of New York probably resting some of its key players since there is nothing on the line. He passed for 296 yards and a pair of scores in Week 3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS NYG 6012100000 **
"Fat Rob" may have slim pickings against the Giants this week if they don't rest starters. New York has given up only one TD in the last 144 touches to RBs. With the Giants having nothing to play for, it isn't a bad time to toss Kelley out there.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS NYG 2003200000 ***
Thompson isn't a reliable play and faces a tough matchup. The Giants may rest starters, but this group has allowed one offensive score to RBs in the last 144 touches faced.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, WAS NYG 005501000 **
Quick has fringe appeal for deep leagues. He isn't a volume receiver, and the quarterback play is sketchy. At least the matchup is worthwhile.

Update: Kenny Britt is doubtful, which makes Quick a playable option against the best matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., WAS NYG 005500000 **
Pryor faces a tough matchup and perhaps a tougher battle with his own team's quarterback woes. He's merely a flex against Pittsburgh this week. He caught a 5-97-0 line in Week 11 versus the Steelers, so there is a little hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS NYG 004500000 **
Crowder has fallen on hard times lately, and trusting him for a huge game is a bit much. The Giants should rest some starters, so there is some hope. Otherwise, this is a tough opponent for his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS NYG 003300000 ***
Davis will split work with the ailing Jordan Reed in what isn't the best of matchups. Just one of the last 27 catches by his position has scored on the Giants. Look for help elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS NYG 001200000 *
Reed will gut it out once more with a playoff berth on the line. There isn't much reason to risk it. The Giants have allowed only one of the last 27 catches by tight ends to cross the stripe.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS NYG 2233 ***
This is the second lowest opportunity rating for kicking chances in Week 17. New York has provided just three opportunities for both XPA and FGA combined in the last five weeks.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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