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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 27, WAS 30 (Line: WAS by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III

At least someone has to win this. The 3-6 Eagles are on a five game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road. The 3-6 Redskins are just 1-3 at home and are on a three game losing streak. This is truly a coin flip game because neither team is playing well or scoring many points.

The Eagles swept the Redskins in 2011, winning 20-13 in Washington and then 34-10 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,2
QB Mark Sanchez 200,1
RB LeSean McCoy 100 5-30
RB Darren Sproles 5-40,1
WR Riley Cooper 4-50
WR Jeremy Maclin 3-40
TE Brent Celek 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The season is already over and the five game losing streak is all but certain to shake up coaching staffs and probably a few players as well. The offense has been largely punchless all season with never more than 24 points in any game and with a defense that is not bad, but not quite good enough. With three road games in the next four weeks, the trends are likely to continue.

This could change, at least in theory. Michael Vick is out with a concussion (said while making quote marks in the air with fingers) this week and many speculate that we won't see Vick as a starter the rest of the year. And maybe not even in Philly at all in 2013. Vick has done nothing to change his moniker of "Coach Killer" and it looks like he's grabbed another $100 million contract and this time brought down the most senior head coach in the NFL.

That means that not only does Nick Foles get his first start, but instead of making it last week against the tough Dallas secondary, it comes now. Against the Redskins and their #31 defense against quarterbacks. Timing is nice on that one. The Skins have already allowed 299+ yards to seven different quarterbacks. And every team throws at least one scoring pass if not two or three.

Foles is in luck. He inherits a pretty good set of receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. He has what should be a credible ground game with LeSean McCoy. For fantasy purposes, predicting the outcome here is tough with almost nothing to go on. Jackson and Maclin get the benefit of facing a truly bad secondary while Celek faces the #32 defense against tight ends. This may be hard to call, but it is about as good of a situation for a first start as Foles could hope for.

Jason Avant pulled his hamstring and is expected to be out. Riley Cooper will take his place.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 13 12 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 11 30 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mark Sanchez, PHI @WAS 0000028020 ***
Can Sanchez turn around his mini-slump of declining numbers? A Redskins defense that ceded 325 and 3 to Nick Foles back in Week 3 and has allowed multiple passing scores in three straight help point all signs towards "yes".
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @WAS 6001100000 ***
As far as we can tell McCoy is still the starter and feature back in Philly. Last week, however, he played in just 34 of the team's 55 offensive snaps, a two-year low for McCoy. It's a tough matchup to begin with, and if you're taking touches--especially goal line looks--off of McCoy's plate it makes things even more difficult.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @WAS 0081201000 ****
Maclin remains the man in Philly, with four straight 100-yard games against the Redskins capped by his 8-154-1 earlier this season. He's been the most consistently targeted Eagle, so no matter what shakes down he feels like the best bet for fantasy help this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @WAS 004701000 **
Matthews vanished last week; one drop led to no more targets and zero catches on the day. We'll see if he returns to the coaching staff's good graces, but given what transpired last week he can't be banked on for fantasy help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @WAS 004300000 ***
Cooper's targets have taken a turn for the better--second on the team among wideouts in looks each of the past four games--but the productivity hasn't climbed with the additional looks so he's still a risky play at best here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @WAS 001100000 ***
It's a favorable tight end matchup, but Celek's presence only serves to cut into Zach Ertz's fantasy potential.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @WAS 002100000 ***
Ertz is the more dynamic target, but he isn't necessarily the most targeted tight end on the Philly roster and that makes him a difficult start at best. On the bright side, both he and Brent Celek will be facing a Redskins defense that has given up 11 TE TDs this year, including four in the past three games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, PHI @WAS 2233 ***
Parker produced 13 points the last time these teams met, the most Washington has allowed to an opposing kicker all year. It's not rare for Parkey, however, who has six games with double-digit points and is averaging 9.5 points per game on the year. Shouldn't be a hiccup here.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,1
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
WR Pierre Garcon 2-40
WR Leonard Hankerson 2-30
WR DeSean Jackson 6-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 5-70
TE Logan Paulsen 4-50
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are 3-6 with a three game losing streak and reality has set in. No playoffs - again - and no certainty that they will finish any better than the 5-11 record from last year. Or the 6-10 they produced in Shanahan's first year. Most coaches get two to four years in Washington so Mike Shanahan may just make it to next year. Or not. He has stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes which means even less reliability on guessing what he will do. Short of Robert Griffin III, anyone on the team may be replaced next year. There are certainly reasons to do that.

Robert Griffin III injured his ribs in the Carolina but still played after getting a pain injection at halftime and is not expected to have any problems here two weeks afterwards. Griffin's only passed for eight touchdowns in nine games and while he turned in six touchdowns as a runner through week six, he did not score on the ground in the last three games. Only one of his last five games produced more than 215 passing yards thought he usually gains 50+ yards as a runner. To his credit, he's only passed for three interceptions.

Alfred Morris was running well through week five with every game totaling more than 78 yards and scoring four times but he's only managed one touchdown in the last five games and is much less effective. His last two games only allowed him 13 carries each and never more than 76 yards. He was a solid RB2 if not RB1 to start the year but has declined to marginal stats in recent games. With a touch schedule looming, he'll be challenged to turn it around and there is always the chance that Shanahan wants to see what some other back would do in a game for next year's purposes.

The receivers remain so sub-standard that it is hard to imagine all of them returning next year if even most of them. Josh Morgan never scores and only once gained more than 50 yards in a game. Aldrick Robinson doesn't even catch a pass every week. Leonard Hankerson scored just once back in week two but has been without fantasy relevance since. Santana Moss is the only receiver of any not with five touchdowns but in games without a score, he's never been better than 47 yards and his most recent game - one catch for two yards - shows how unreliable he is.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 4 22 19 19 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 11 13 11 13 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS PHI 30000026021 ***
If there were any team Jay Gruden were forced to play RG3 against, the Eagles might be the best possible option. In four career meetings RG3 has thrown multiple TDs four times, a total of 10 touchdowns against four INTs, averaging 272 yards per game with another 40 rushing yards per game to boot. You'd take those numbers from RG3, right? He wasn't that far off last week against the Giants with 236 & 1 plus 46 rushing, and with Philly as the second-most fantasy friendly defense against quarterbacks an uptick is to be expected. RG3 is playing for somebody's job, be it in DC or elsewhere, and the Eagles are a perfect foil for him to make some noise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS PHI 8001100000 ***
The Redskins have gotten away from running Morris 20 times a game, perhaps because they've dropped the last three games by an average of 18 points per game. He carried 23 times for 77 yards in the earlier meeting with Philly and you have to think the game plan calls for heavy doses of Alf. As an added bonus, any read options carry the threat of an RG3 run, which in the past has opened lanes for Morris. Think of those previous game numbers as a baseline, with room to move upwards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS PHI 005901000 **
You think DJax is motivated? Now even his own coach is talking smack about him. He put up 117 and a touch on the Eagles in the earlier meeting, and with RG3 throwing deep he should get a few extra chances to put the torch to his former squad. Revenge is a dish best served in the fantasy bowl.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS PHI 005701000 **
Garcon seems to be more of a Colt McCoy favorite than an RG3 favorite, though after seeing what Garcon did to the Eagles back in Week 3 (11-138-1) maybe he'll reconsider. It's a risk, as Garcon has been a bit player most of the season, but there's some upside if RG3 is willing to reacquaint himself with Pierre.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS PHI 005500000 ***
Philly has allowed only one TE TD on the year, but two tight ends have topped 100 yards and another two--including Niles Paul back in Week 3, before Reed was back from injury--topped 65 yards. He'd be more of a yardage play than a TD play, but there's some upside to Reed this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS PHI 2111 ***
Blame RG3: With other quarterbacks Forbath is averaging better than seven points per game; in games in which RG3 took the bulk of the snaps, he's averaging 4.6. He tallied 10 for the Kirk Cousins-led Redskins against Philly earlier this year, but don't get your hopes up for the rematch.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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