FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 27, WAS 30 (Line: WAS by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III

At least someone has to win this. The 3-6 Eagles are on a five game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road. The 3-6 Redskins are just 1-3 at home and are on a three game losing streak. This is truly a coin flip game because neither team is playing well or scoring many points.

The Eagles swept the Redskins in 2011, winning 20-13 in Washington and then 34-10 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,2
QB Mark Sanchez 200,1
RB LeSean McCoy 100 5-30
RB Darren Sproles 5-40,1
WR Riley Cooper 4-50
WR Jeremy Maclin 3-40
TE Brent Celek 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The season is already over and the five game losing streak is all but certain to shake up coaching staffs and probably a few players as well. The offense has been largely punchless all season with never more than 24 points in any game and with a defense that is not bad, but not quite good enough. With three road games in the next four weeks, the trends are likely to continue.

This could change, at least in theory. Michael Vick is out with a concussion (said while making quote marks in the air with fingers) this week and many speculate that we won't see Vick as a starter the rest of the year. And maybe not even in Philly at all in 2013. Vick has done nothing to change his moniker of "Coach Killer" and it looks like he's grabbed another $100 million contract and this time brought down the most senior head coach in the NFL.

That means that not only does Nick Foles get his first start, but instead of making it last week against the tough Dallas secondary, it comes now. Against the Redskins and their #31 defense against quarterbacks. Timing is nice on that one. The Skins have already allowed 299+ yards to seven different quarterbacks. And every team throws at least one scoring pass if not two or three.

Foles is in luck. He inherits a pretty good set of receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. He has what should be a credible ground game with LeSean McCoy. For fantasy purposes, predicting the outcome here is tough with almost nothing to go on. Jackson and Maclin get the benefit of facing a truly bad secondary while Celek faces the #32 defense against tight ends. This may be hard to call, but it is about as good of a situation for a first start as Foles could hope for.

Jason Avant pulled his hamstring and is expected to be out. Riley Cooper will take his place.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 13 12 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 11 30 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mark Sanchez, PHI @NYG 0000029021 ***
Nick Foles roasted the Giants for 248 and 2 in a 27-0 win earlier this year; now it's Sanchez's turn, fresh off a 374 and 2 performance in Washington. The Giants just let Shaun Hill take them for 290 and 2, so even a fading Sanchez--playing for a spot next year, be it in Philly or otherwise--should have success against them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 8011100000 ***
What Chip Kelly needs to do is say, "Merry Christmas, Shady! Here's 20-plus carries!" With that, McCoy should have a field day as all four backs to see that workload against the Giants have topped 120 yards--including McCoy himself in a 22-149 effort earlier this year. Let Chris Polk have all the goal line fun; McCoy will get his via performance points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 005601000 ***
The Giants haven't allowed many big games to wide receivers--just enough little ones, especially since losing cornerback Prince Amukamara for the season. Maclin mustered only 16 yards in the earlier meeting but has six touchdowns and five games of 90-plus yards since so mark him down for a fantasy helper here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @NYG 005700000 ***
Matthews has been silent for the past month; maybe hitting the rookie wall? This matchup isn't particularly favorable, so there's no need to reach for him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @NYG 006601000 ***
Ertz scored in the earlier meeting with the Giants as Philly tight ends accounted for 118 yards and two TDs. Last week Ertz finally consolidated all those targets; the result was a 15-115 outing against the Redskins. Whether he's sharing or hoarding he's a solid fantasy play this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, PHI @NYG 2233 ***
Parkey had nine in the earlier meeting with the Giants, though hitting the road and the possibility that Matt Barkley takes meaningful snaps make reaching that number again a little more tenuous.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,1
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
WR Pierre Garcon 2-40
WR Leonard Hankerson 2-30
WR DeSean Jackson 6-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 5-70
TE Logan Paulsen 4-50
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are 3-6 with a three game losing streak and reality has set in. No playoffs - again - and no certainty that they will finish any better than the 5-11 record from last year. Or the 6-10 they produced in Shanahan's first year. Most coaches get two to four years in Washington so Mike Shanahan may just make it to next year. Or not. He has stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes which means even less reliability on guessing what he will do. Short of Robert Griffin III, anyone on the team may be replaced next year. There are certainly reasons to do that.

Robert Griffin III injured his ribs in the Carolina but still played after getting a pain injection at halftime and is not expected to have any problems here two weeks afterwards. Griffin's only passed for eight touchdowns in nine games and while he turned in six touchdowns as a runner through week six, he did not score on the ground in the last three games. Only one of his last five games produced more than 215 passing yards thought he usually gains 50+ yards as a runner. To his credit, he's only passed for three interceptions.

Alfred Morris was running well through week five with every game totaling more than 78 yards and scoring four times but he's only managed one touchdown in the last five games and is much less effective. His last two games only allowed him 13 carries each and never more than 76 yards. He was a solid RB2 if not RB1 to start the year but has declined to marginal stats in recent games. With a touch schedule looming, he'll be challenged to turn it around and there is always the chance that Shanahan wants to see what some other back would do in a game for next year's purposes.

The receivers remain so sub-standard that it is hard to imagine all of them returning next year if even most of them. Josh Morgan never scores and only once gained more than 50 yards in a game. Aldrick Robinson doesn't even catch a pass every week. Leonard Hankerson scored just once back in week two but has been without fantasy relevance since. Santana Moss is the only receiver of any not with five touchdowns but in games without a score, he's never been better than 47 yards and his most recent game - one catch for two yards - shows how unreliable he is.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 4 22 19 19 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 11 13 11 13 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS DAL 0000026011 ***
RG3 threw four TDs in his first game against the Cowboys, back in November 2012; in 57 attempts he hasn't thrown one since, though he did run for one in the back end of the 2012 series. Colt McCoy couldn't crack the Cowboys for a scoring strike (though he did run one in) in the earlier meeting this season; sensing a theme here? RG3 came close to a rushing score in Week 15, but he'll need one to be a fantasy factor this week--and he hasn't had one since that 2012 Week 17 game against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS DAL 701000000 ***
Alf has scored in all five of his career meetings with the Cowboys, including a TD in the earlier meeting which, at 18-73-1, was actually his least productive effort against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed seven RB TDs in the past five games, so Alf should have ample opportunity to extend his streak here--unless Darrel Young swipes his scores again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS DAL 0051101000 ****
Jackson dropped 136 yards on the Cowboys in the front end of this season series, but he hasn't caught a touchdown pass against them since December of 2010--and he's been in their division for years. Bank on the yardage--DJax just posted 126 on his former mates from Philadelphia last week--but don't count on a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS DAL 003500000 ***
The last time Roberts had fantasy value was right after the Redskins signed him to start opposite Pierre Garcon. Much has happened since then, none of it beneficial to Roberts' fantasy value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS DAL 004500000 ***
Garcon has shown moderate signs of life, but his biggest outing came when DeSean Jackson was out of the lineup so when the Redskins are at full strength he's clearly a second banana. Look for a first banana before settling this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS DAL 005500000 ***
Reed split 67 yards with Niles Paul in the earlier matchup with Dallas, but he's made the tight end position his own over the past month. That makes him the most likely to take advantage of a Dallas defense that's allowed 10 TE TDs on the year as well as six games of 50-plus yards.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS DAL 2222 ****
Forbath has actually been adequate of late, if you're into something in the eight-point neighborhood. That seems to be the ceiling, however, so you can likely do better elsewhere.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

a d v e r t i s e m e n t