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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 27, WAS 30 (Line: WAS by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III

At least someone has to win this. The 3-6 Eagles are on a five game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road. The 3-6 Redskins are just 1-3 at home and are on a three game losing streak. This is truly a coin flip game because neither team is playing well or scoring many points.

The Eagles swept the Redskins in 2011, winning 20-13 in Washington and then 34-10 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Ryan Mathews
RB Darren Sproles 5-40,1
TE Brent Celek 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The season is already over and the five game losing streak is all but certain to shake up coaching staffs and probably a few players as well. The offense has been largely punchless all season with never more than 24 points in any game and with a defense that is not bad, but not quite good enough. With three road games in the next four weeks, the trends are likely to continue.

This could change, at least in theory. Michael Vick is out with a concussion (said while making quote marks in the air with fingers) this week and many speculate that we won't see Vick as a starter the rest of the year. And maybe not even in Philly at all in 2013. Vick has done nothing to change his moniker of "Coach Killer" and it looks like he's grabbed another $100 million contract and this time brought down the most senior head coach in the NFL.

That means that not only does Nick Foles get his first start, but instead of making it last week against the tough Dallas secondary, it comes now. Against the Redskins and their #31 defense against quarterbacks. Timing is nice on that one. The Skins have already allowed 299+ yards to seven different quarterbacks. And every team throws at least one scoring pass if not two or three.

Foles is in luck. He inherits a pretty good set of receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. He has what should be a credible ground game with LeSean McCoy. For fantasy purposes, predicting the outcome here is tough with almost nothing to go on. Jackson and Maclin get the benefit of facing a truly bad secondary while Celek faces the #32 defense against tight ends. This may be hard to call, but it is about as good of a situation for a first start as Foles could hope for.

Jason Avant pulled his hamstring and is expected to be out. Riley Cooper will take his place.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 13 12 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 11 30 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI WAS 0000022011 ***
The matchup suggests a streaming play, but the desperation of Washington could play a huge role. The Redskins have allowed quarterbacks to average 26.8 fantasy points and 290.5 yards per game. The position, since Week 8, has mustered aerial nine TDs in four games, plus one on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Mathews, PHI WAS 8011100000 *
Mathews returned to practice Wednesday, which suggests he should be in line to play ... how much is anyone's guess. Keep him pegged as a flex in the worst-case scenario. At least the matchup is sweet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI WAS 1005300000 ***
Three running backs with one great matchup ... fantasy cannibalization? Probably. Sproles tackles fantasy's eighth most generous opponent for catches allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI WAS 2001100000 ***
No team has been a bigger turnstile for touchdowns than the Redskins have in the last five weeks. The matchup is right, so Smallwood may get on track.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI WAS 004600000 *
Matthews should be back this week but may not be 100 percent. Check Friday for an update on his status. He's likely to draw Josh Norman if he goes, so look elsewhere if you have a better matchup.

Update: Matthews was a full-go Thursday and Friday, which is great news since the Eagles should be without Dorial Green-Beckham.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI WAS 003400000 ***
Update: No DGB means more for Agholor, but Jordan Matthews is back this week, so the second-year wideout will remain unplayable in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI WAS 007601000 ***
Tight ends have averaged 6.5 catches for 76 yards and 0.5 TDs over the last four games against the Redskins. Ertz caught one pass for 22 yards the last time these teams met.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI WAS 2222 ***
Washington has allowed the second most extra point attempts but the sixth fewest field goal tries per contest in the last five weeks.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon 2-40
WR DeSean Jackson 6-80,1
TE Vernon Davis 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are 3-6 with a three game losing streak and reality has set in. No playoffs - again - and no certainty that they will finish any better than the 5-11 record from last year. Or the 6-10 they produced in Shanahan's first year. Most coaches get two to four years in Washington so Mike Shanahan may just make it to next year. Or not. He has stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes which means even less reliability on guessing what he will do. Short of Robert Griffin III, anyone on the team may be replaced next year. There are certainly reasons to do that.

Robert Griffin III injured his ribs in the Carolina but still played after getting a pain injection at halftime and is not expected to have any problems here two weeks afterwards. Griffin's only passed for eight touchdowns in nine games and while he turned in six touchdowns as a runner through week six, he did not score on the ground in the last three games. Only one of his last five games produced more than 215 passing yards thought he usually gains 50+ yards as a runner. To his credit, he's only passed for three interceptions.

Alfred Morris was running well through week five with every game totaling more than 78 yards and scoring four times but he's only managed one touchdown in the last five games and is much less effective. His last two games only allowed him 13 carries each and never more than 76 yards. He was a solid RB2 if not RB1 to start the year but has declined to marginal stats in recent games. With a touch schedule looming, he'll be challenged to turn it around and there is always the chance that Shanahan wants to see what some other back would do in a game for next year's purposes.

The receivers remain so sub-standard that it is hard to imagine all of them returning next year if even most of them. Josh Morgan never scores and only once gained more than 50 yards in a game. Aldrick Robinson doesn't even catch a pass every week. Leonard Hankerson scored just once back in week two but has been without fantasy relevance since. Santana Moss is the only receiver of any not with five touchdowns but in games without a score, he's never been better than 47 yards and his most recent game - one catch for two yards - shows how unreliable he is.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 4 22 19 19 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 11 13 11 13 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @PHI 0000025020 ***
Traveling to a divisional opponent is never ideal, especially in December. The Eagles have allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game in the last five weeks, coming from surrendering two passing TDs per game and 288.2 yards through the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS @PHI 8012100000 ***
Kelley may be utilized more this week, although it will come against a challenging opponent. The Eagles have given up only 72.2 rushing yards per contest and a TD every 36.2 carries in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @PHI 2004300000 ***
Philly has given up the ninth highest average of catches per game (5.4), but that is about it for this bottom-10 matchup. Thompson has just a touch of appeal in super-deep PPRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @PHI 005501000 ***
The 11th best receiver over the last five weeks, Crowder has scored three times in his past four outings. The Eagles have given up the third most points to wideouts in PPR, including allowing a touchdown ever 8.5 catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @PHI 003401000 ***
Philadelphia has surrendered the third most yards and fantasy points per contest since Week 8. Garcon should be in for a sound PPR game against the 10th weakest defense at stopping receivers from catching the ball.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @PHI 003400000 ***
On paper, this is an ideal matchup for Jackson against his former employer. Philly has allowed the third most yards per game and rate as the fifth softest group against scoring touchdowns. That said, Jackson is a limited player who easily can be removed from a gameplan. Take the chance only in non-PPR.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @PHI 004500000 *
Reed's status for Week 14 remains unknown. Return for an update later this week.

Update: Reed is questionable but practiced in full on Friday and will start, barring a setback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @PHI 003300000 ***
Davis will replace Reed in the lineup if the oft-injured talent cannot go once again. Philadelphia has surrendered two touchdowns on the last 15 receptions granted to tight ends, so there's hope for a decent game. Otherwise, it's a stoutly negative matchup for yards and catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @PHI 2233 ***
Philadelphia has granted the fourth highest per-game field goal attempt figure and the ninth most extra points per game since Week 8. This among the best overall matchups a kicker can find in Week 14.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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