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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

Prediction: PHI 27, WAS 30 (Line: WAS by 3.5)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III

At least someone has to win this. The 3-6 Eagles are on a five game losing streak and are 1-3 on the road. The 3-6 Redskins are just 1-3 at home and are on a three game losing streak. This is truly a coin flip game because neither team is playing well or scoring many points.

The Eagles swept the Redskins in 2011, winning 20-13 in Washington and then 34-10 at home.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS -----
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR -----
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL -----
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,2
QB Mark Sanchez 200,1
RB LeSean McCoy 100 5-30
RB Darren Sproles 5-40,1
WR Riley Cooper 4-50
WR Jeremy Maclin 3-40
TE Brent Celek 4-50,1
PK Alex Henery 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is already over and the five game losing streak is all but certain to shake up coaching staffs and probably a few players as well. The offense has been largely punchless all season with never more than 24 points in any game and with a defense that is not bad, but not quite good enough. With three road games in the next four weeks, the trends are likely to continue.

This could change, at least in theory. Michael Vick is out with a concussion (said while making quote marks in the air with fingers) this week and many speculate that we won't see Vick as a starter the rest of the year. And maybe not even in Philly at all in 2013. Vick has done nothing to change his moniker of "Coach Killer" and it looks like he's grabbed another $100 million contract and this time brought down the most senior head coach in the NFL.

That means that not only does Nick Foles get his first start, but instead of making it last week against the tough Dallas secondary, it comes now. Against the Redskins and their #31 defense against quarterbacks. Timing is nice on that one. The Skins have already allowed 299+ yards to seven different quarterbacks. And every team throws at least one scoring pass if not two or three.

Foles is in luck. He inherits a pretty good set of receivers in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek. He has what should be a credible ground game with LeSean McCoy. For fantasy purposes, predicting the outcome here is tough with almost nothing to go on. Jackson and Maclin get the benefit of facing a truly bad secondary while Celek faces the #32 defense against tight ends. This may be hard to call, but it is about as good of a situation for a first start as Foles could hope for.

Jason Avant pulled his hamstring and is expected to be out. Riley Cooper will take his place.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 10 23 13 12 23 30
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 11 30 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Nick Foles, PHI @DAL 0000025020 ***
Foles was knocked out of the earlier meeting with Dallas, a damn shame considering only one team has allowed more passing scores, passing yards, or fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Cowboys. With the NFC East on the line and Foles having five TDs and 658 yards in his past two games--not to mention insane numbers like 1,358 yards and 16 touchdowns in four road starts this year--you have to love his fantasy prospects.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @DAL 8015400000 ***
Somehow the Cowboys held Shady to 55 yards on 18 carries in the earlier meeting. Since that time Dallas has given up 15 RB and five 100-yard rushing efforts, including a score or 100-yard game to every feature back they've faced. No reason McCoy shouldn't get his fair share here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @DAL 2005301000 ***
Sproles hasn't had a fantasy helper since Week 10, as he's low man on the carries totem pole and ceding looks in the passing game to Pierre Thomas as well. There's always a chance he'll be the focal point of that week's game plan, but as it stands nothing suggests a fantasy helper is imminent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @DAL 004601000 ****
The Cowboys have allowed a secondary receiver to either score or top 50 yards in five of the last six, a total of seven fantasy helpers to secondary targets in that six-game span. While Cooper's numbers have tailed off since his hot mid-season run, he's set up to at least mirror his 88-yard output from the earlier meeting with Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 005401000 ***
The good news is, the Eagles have five TE TDs in the past four games. The bad news is, they're still being split between Ertz and Brent Celek, plus neither did much damage in the earlier meeting with Dallas and the Cowboys have allowed only one TE TD in the past month.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @DAL 002200000 ***
The good news is, the Eagles have five TE TDs in the past four games. The bad news is, they're still being split between Celek and Zach Ertz, plus neither did much damage in the earlier meeting with Dallas and the Cowboys have allowed only one TE TD in the past month.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @DAL 3333 ****
Henery has 10 points in each of the past two games after being shut out by Mother Nature and the Lions. He mustered only three in the earlier meeting with Dallas, and with just one multiple field goal game since Week 10 (and two since Week 5) he's no lock for big numbers here.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI -----
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,1
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
RB Evan Royster 5-40,1
WR Pierre Garcon 2-40
WR Leonard Hankerson 2-30
WR DeSean Jackson 6-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
TE Logan Paulsen 4-50
PK Kai Forbath 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are 3-6 with a three game losing streak and reality has set in. No playoffs - again - and no certainty that they will finish any better than the 5-11 record from last year. Or the 6-10 they produced in Shanahan's first year. Most coaches get two to four years in Washington so Mike Shanahan may just make it to next year. Or not. He has stated that the rest of the year would be used for evaluation purposes which means even less reliability on guessing what he will do. Short of Robert Griffin III, anyone on the team may be replaced next year. There are certainly reasons to do that.

Robert Griffin III injured his ribs in the Carolina but still played after getting a pain injection at halftime and is not expected to have any problems here two weeks afterwards. Griffin's only passed for eight touchdowns in nine games and while he turned in six touchdowns as a runner through week six, he did not score on the ground in the last three games. Only one of his last five games produced more than 215 passing yards thought he usually gains 50+ yards as a runner. To his credit, he's only passed for three interceptions.

Alfred Morris was running well through week five with every game totaling more than 78 yards and scoring four times but he's only managed one touchdown in the last five games and is much less effective. His last two games only allowed him 13 carries each and never more than 76 yards. He was a solid RB2 if not RB1 to start the year but has declined to marginal stats in recent games. With a touch schedule looming, he'll be challenged to turn it around and there is always the chance that Shanahan wants to see what some other back would do in a game for next year's purposes.

The receivers remain so sub-standard that it is hard to imagine all of them returning next year if even most of them. Josh Morgan never scores and only once gained more than 50 yards in a game. Aldrick Robinson doesn't even catch a pass every week. Leonard Hankerson scored just once back in week two but has been without fantasy relevance since. Santana Moss is the only receiver of any not with five touchdowns but in games without a score, he's never been better than 47 yards and his most recent game - one catch for two yards - shows how unreliable he is.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 4 22 19 19 14 8
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 11 13 11 13 26 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @NYG 0000023012 ***
The Giants have given up multiple passing scores just twice in the past nine games, a stretch that included holding Robert Griffin III to 207 and 1. Cousins lit up Atlanta and looked ordinary against Dallas; with this matchup tending to be more on the tough side, Cousins' fantasy prospects are limited.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @NYG 5001100000 ****
Morris rushed for 26 yards and a score in the Week 13 meeting with the Giants, adding another 27 as a receiver. That marked the start of a four-game stretch in which the Giants allowed at least one RB TD, a total of six scores in that span. With Morris continuing to get the bulk of the carries in DC, and coming off 98- and 88-yard efforts the past two weeks, there's no reason to think Alf can't at least match that earlier output
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @NYG 005700000 ***
Garcon has seen double-digit targets in nine straight games, including 12 for 9-61 in the earlier meeting with the Giants and 18 for 11-144-1 last week. He's also scored and topped 100 yards in each of the past two games with Kirk Cousins at the helm; no reason to think he won't be Cousins' go-to guy once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @NYG 005600000 ***
Jackson had his worst game of the season against Dallas earlier this year, catching just three balls for 21 yards. His second-worst came last week as he saw just five targets with Philly rolling to a 43-point win over Chicago. In between he's scored four times and topped 150 yards twice. With the division on the line, look for something much more compatible with your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS @NYG 003400000 ***
Paulsen scored in the earlier meeting with the Giants just a month ago, but with Fred Davis back in the mix and the two sharing looks you can't bank on either for a fantasy contribution.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @NYG 2211 ***
Forbath posted his first double-digit game in more than two months last week, and while the Giants are hardly defensive stoppers there's little reason to be optimistic about a repeat performance here.

WEEK 11
2012
MIA at BUF (THU) *CLE at DAL *NO at OAK TB at CAR
*ARI at ATL GB at DET NYJ at STL *CHI at SF (MON)
*BAL at PIT *IND at NE PHI at WAS Bye:
*UPDATED CIN at KC JAC at HOU *SD at DEN MIN, NYG, SEA, TEN

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