FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: BUF 20, IND 27 (Line: IND by 3)

Players to Watch: Fred Jackson, Delone Carter

The 4-6 Bills come off a win last Thursday but are only 2-4 on the road. The 6-4 Colts were just pummeled by the Patriots in New England but are 4-1 at home.

Pregame Notes: The Bills did the unthinkable last week and somehow generated a defense that held the Dolphins to only 14 points. They still average 30 points per opponent and it was a visiting divisional rival with a struggling offense. But fortunately all the remaining games outside maybe this week will go against teams with lower scoring offenses and the defense may seem far better at the end of the year than it really is.

Last week was a very odd game that made it look like the Fins and Bills both featured great defenses which is hardly reality. Ryan Fitzpatrick only passes for 168 yards and no scores which makes it four of the last six games without any touchdowns. An improved ground game is partially to blame but the only two times that Fitzpatrick had decent games in the last month and a half were against Tennessee and in New England - both against very bad secondaries.

C.J. Spiller gained over 100 total yards in each of the last five games and that includes 70+ yards as a runner in all but one of those games. Fred Jackson was held out last week due to the concussion he received in the New England game but they are hopeful that he will be able to play. The bad part is that Jackson will eat into what Spiller could have done by himself though the speedy back for the Bills was getting winded last week and was spelled by Tashard Choice on several plays. Not a great sign that he got winded when he only took 22 carries and three catches but he was certainly getting longer gainers on many touches.

The declining passing numbers mean that Stevie Johnson only produces moderate stats in most weeks and scored only once in the last seven games. Neither Johnson nor any other Bills receiver has managed to gain more than 100 yards in a game this year. Donald Jones scored in the two easy games against the Titans and Patriots but otherwise had no fantasy value and even against the Fins only caught two passes for 11 yards. Johnson is the only decent play here and even then only for 60 or 70 yards in a good game.

Scott Chandler was able to score in New England but has fallen short of any fantasy merit since week five and usually ends up with 30 to 50 yards in most games without a touchdown.

The Colts defense is improving and always plays better at home. Last week notwithstanding, the Colts have held opponents to 20 or fewer points in four of the last five games.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB C.J. Spiller, BUF	NYJ	120	1	4	30	0	0	0	0
Spiller has hit triple-digit yardage the last four times he's received double-digit touches. No reason for the Bills to use anyone else, so Spiller can continue to lay the groundwork for next season's top 10 fantasy ranking.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Stevie Johnson, BUF	NYJ	0	0	6	70	1	0	0	0
Johnson is 65 yards shy of a third straight 1,000-yard season; there's your motivation.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR T.J. Graham, BUF	NYJ	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Graham is Plan B in the Buffalo passing game, for those times when Stevie Johnson isn't open.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Lee Smith, BUF	NYJ	0	0	2	20	0	0	0	0
With Scott Chandler out, Smith takes over the Bills' primary tight end duties. He's more of a blocker than a pass-catcher, so keep those expectations low.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Rian Lindell, BUF	NYJ	1	1	2	2
With Buffalo's offense struggling to break 20, you can do better for a fantasy kicker.

Pregame Notes: The Patriots made sure the upstart Colts realized their place in the NFL with a blowout "let's still throw bombs" sort of way. In the process they did allow Andrew Luck to set the new NFL rookie record with five games over 300 yards. With six left to play. Last week ended a four game winning streak and these Colts may not be Patriot good yet, but they are far better than anyone could have expected. And still in the playoff hunt.

Luck has always been very productive in home games this year and the Bills are bringing in a below average defense anyway. Luck has scored twice in every home game and usually enjoyed big yardage efforts aside from the one Cleveland tilt. He's thrown for 12 touchdowns this year and rushed in five more.

Now that everyone is healthy, the running attack is a three-headed monster with marginal fantasy implications on a good day. Donald Brown runs just enough to make sure that Vick Ballard does not have a big game and then in the rare case they end up at the goal line, Delone Carter trots in for the short touchdown. Bottom line here - Colts backs have only rushed in three touchdowns all year against five scored by Luck as a runner. No runner here gained more than 84 rushing yards in any game and they rarely account for more than one catch each.

Reggie Wayne continues to catch at least seven passes in every game since week seven but he has not topped 100 yards in the last six games and scored just once in that time. His three touchdowns all occurred while at home though and he is a lock for at least 70 yards each week. TY Hilton comes off his career best game of six catches for 100 yards and two touchdowns. That pairs up with the 6-102 and a score he posted in week nine. Problem is that he was blanked in week 10 with just one pass thrown his way. Donnie Avery provides some minor possession catches but Wayne and Hilton have clearly become the top two receivers here.

Playing at home with something to prove after the spanking in New England should not only provide good stats for Luck, Wayne and Hilton, but the runners as well. The Bills have one of the worst defenses at stopping rushing scores and running backs have scored on them 16 times already.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND	HOU	20	0	0	0	0	280	2	2
Luck has the double task of extending his own rookie passing record and improving the Colts' playoff seed. He's hovered around 200 yards each of the past three games, but he did throw two TDs against the Texans a couple weeks back. Luck averaged around 280 passing yards per game at home, and with a little something still left to play for look for him to keep chucking.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Vick Ballard, IND	HOU	80	0	3	20	0	0	0	0
Ballard banged out 105 yards against the Texans a couple weeks back--yes, the same Texans' D that held Adrian Peterson in check last week. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a better effort from Houston's run defense--and more of the offensive load to fall on Andrew Luck and the passing game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND	HOU	0	0	6	80	1	0	0	0
Houston held Wayne in check a couple weeks back, but a dozen targets and a touchdown last week against the Chiefs provides reassurance that he's still Andrew Luck's go-to guy. This game still has meaning, so Wayne won't be ignored.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND	HOU	0	0	4	60	0	0	0	0
Hilton was Indy's leading receiver in the previous meeting with Houston, but he's reliant on a home run ball and as such difficult to trust with a fantasy start.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND	HOU	0	0	3	30	0	0	0	0
with Matt Leinart last week, DHB only gained 2-31. Throw in Terrelle Pryor this week and no reason to touch any Raiders receiver.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND	HOU	0	0	4	40	1	0	0	0
The Texans have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, including one to Allen two weeks back. And with Coby Fleener still a non-factor, Allen isn't a bad bet to reprise his production from a couple weeks ago.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND	HOU	2	1	2	2
Vinny has multiple treys in each of his last three at home, and with Indy still looking to improve its playoff lot he should get plenty of chances to swing the leg this week.

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