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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, CIN 27 (Line:CIN by 8)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Andrew Hawkins

Players to Watch: Cedric Peerman, Denarius Moore

The 3-7 Raiders are on a three game losing streak and have a 1-4 road record. The 5-5 Bengals won their last two and are only 2-3 at home.The Raiders on the road tend to play great opponents close because it is a near trap game or they get handled by 35, 31 or 22 points. Bengals not likely to be trapped.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 220,2
RB Darren McFadden
RB Marcel Reece 60,1 6-50
WR James Jones 3-50,1
WR Denarius Moore 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: It is bad enough that the Raiders have lost their last three games, but they allowed 42, 55 and 38 points in the process. The wheels are wobbling again and mostly because of the defense. The owner may have gone to the locker room after the loss to the Saints to voice his unhappiness but that doesn't magically change that this is yet another lost season for the Raiders and they are playing like they realize that it is already over.

Carson Palmer hasn't often been a winning quarterback but he's made a nice fantasy starter if you can live with a couple of interceptions. He has seven games at or over 300 yards and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games. Most road games tend to be lower scoring if not lower in yardage as well but he remains a decent fantasy play weekly from being so consistently at 300 yards or more.

Darren McFadden may return this week but HC Dennis Allen remains vague about his status and week 12 was a target date for him to return after missing two weeks. A notoriously slow healer, only late week practices can help clear up his status this week if in fact he doesn't end up as a game time decision. In his place Marcel Reece has performed admirably if not actually better than McFadden. Reece produced 104 total yards and seven receptions in Baltimore and then 193 total yards last week against the Saints. I'll assume a third start for Reece until there is a concrete reason to change it.

Brandon Myers not only was able to immediately return from his concussion, but he had one of his best games with six receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. That's three scores in the last three games and he's been remarkably consistent with around 50 or 60 yards each week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was questionable last week but played and ended up with 69 yards on four catches versus the Saints which is sort of a default when anyone plays them. The miracle last week was that Denarius Moore only caught one pass for nine yards on his nine targets. Moore has been the best receiver for the Raiders and the only one that has topped 100 yards. The surprising part of this offense is that Palmer passes for up to 414 yards in a game and yet there has been only once that anyone had over 100 receiving yards. Rod Streater and Juron Criner figure in as minor contributors but this offense is all about throwing to Moore, Heyward-Bey and Myers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 9 9 18 8 9 30
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 5 25 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @CLE 0000020011 ***
Carr flashed a couple weeks back against the Chargers, but that was an island of competency in a season-long sea of no fantasy help whatsoever. Not that the Browns' secondary has been particularly good this season--quite the opposite--but you shouldn't bank on the rookie for help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK @CLE 5004200000 ****
Four of six feature backs to face the Browns have rushed for at least 80 yards and a touchdown; with enough touches McFadden could very well do the same. He's a sneaky fantasy play if you're desperate for running back help this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK @CLE 50000000 ***
MoJo's next fantasy-relevant moment as a Raider will be his first. Could happen in this favorable matchup, but right now it appears as if they're willing to ride Darren McFadden right up to his next injury.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @CLE 005501000 **
No need to fear Joe Haden anymore--or Buster Skreen, for that matter. Jones is the closest thing the Raiders have to a reliable contributor in the passing game, so he's the best bet to capitalize on this dramatically underachieving secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @CLE 003500000 **
Holmes whetted appetites before dashing hopes with a couple of drops last week. It's a favorable matchup against an underachieving secondary, but it will be tough to trust Holmes with a fantasy lineup spot until he demonstrates some consistency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brice Butler, OAK @CLE 002300000 ***
Butler might be becoming the Raiders new favorite "go deep" guy. Against a secondary that's struggled as much as the Browns have, there's fantasy value in that role this week. High risk, but there's definitely home run potential here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @CLE 002100000 ***
Jimmy Graham scored the only two TE TDs the Browns have allowed, but that's probably because Joe Haden was covering him. No need to extend that courtesy to Rivera, who is still looking for his first TD--or 35-yard game--of the year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @CLE 2211 ***
SeaBass's next double-digit game will be his first, and he's averaging an anemic four points per game. You have better options.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
RB Cedric Peerman 40
WR A.J. Green 7-90,1
WR Greg Little 3-40
WR Mohamed Sanu 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The remaining schedule is no cake walk for the Bengals and this week is likely as good as it gets. Ending at .500 will be a challenge but the offense is getting better and the defense can surprise. But in the end, this offense is pretty much Dalton-to-Green and everything else is a distant second. Fortunately, almost no one can stop the connection.

Andy Dalton is enjoying a great sophomore year wit a score in each of the last nine games and a total of 20 passing scores on the year. Of course half of those went to A.J. Green. Dalton threw over 300 yards three times but only once since week three and five of his last seven games produced less than 250 yards. He's a lock to throw a touchdown to A.J. Green but not much else is a guarantee and may or may not happen.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in Kansas City. He's been far more likely to turn in around 50 or 60 yards every week and scored only four times so far. He also takes no role as a receiver. Cedric Peerman is being used more in recent weeks with six carries against the Giants and eight runs for 75 yards on the Chiefs. He'll continue to erode the meager stats of Green-Ellis.

Jermaine Gresham is the #2 receiver for the Bengals and consistent with around 60 yards in most games and four scores on the season. He always has at least three catches and has produced as many as six receptions for 108 yards.

A.J. Green continues his nine game streak with at least one touchdown - that's is ridiculously rare for any receiver. He's as close to unstoppable as 2012 has seen. Green turns in 80 to 180 yards in almost every game and - always scores. They should just spot him one touchdown and give him the first half off. No other wideout matters much though Mohamed Sanu is making his move with a touchdown in each of the last two games. He still has yet to gain more than 47 yards though. Andrew Hawkins missed last week with a knee injury he suffered in Friday practice and is uncertain this week.

The Raiders rank poorly against all categories other than wide receivers where they are average. They rank among the worst against running backs and should give BGE his final decent game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 3 16 19 19
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 32 15 28 31 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN BAL 0000024011 ***
Dalton has but one game north of 20 fantasy points this season; the Ravens have allowed only Andrew Luck to hit that marker against them. As if it weren't a difficult enough matchup already, Dalton will likely have to make do without AJ Green once again as well. No reason to expect a significant fantasy helper here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN BAL 6014300000 **
Won't be easy for Gio against a Baltimore defense that has held four straight foes without an RB TD or let a running back rack up triple-digit combo yardage since Week 2. That said, Bernard racked up 110 yards from scrimmage in the season opener against the Ravens and has found the end zone in every home game thus far this year so don't bet against him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN BAL 200000000 **
There's been barely enough for one back against Baltimore; no need to reach for Cincy's second backfield option this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN BAL 005801000 **
The Ravens have allowed multiple wideouts to score and/or top 50 yards in five straight, so even if AJ Green does play Sanu should hold at least a portion of his fantasy value this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Tate, CIN BAL 002300000 ***
Update: With AJ Green doubtful Tate should get some more run this week--not necessarily enough to be a fantasy factor, but at least he'll be in the mix.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN BAL 002300000 *
Doesn't sound as if Green is going to go again this week, but he's productive enough when hurt that it's worth holdout out hope until he's officially ruled out.
Update: Green failed to practice all week and is listed as doubtful. Best course of action is to continue with whatever backup plan you've been using in his absence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN BAL 006500000 ***
While it's nice and all that Gresham has seen 19 targets over the past two games, he's a non-start against a Baltimore defense that's allowed only one TE TD on the year and no games north of 60 yards.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN BAL 2222 ***
The Nuge was shut out last week, and a Ravens' defense that's allowing less than five kicker points per game doesn't look to provide much of a bounceback opportunity.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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