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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, CIN 27 (Line:CIN by 8)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Andrew Hawkins

Players to Watch: Cedric Peerman, Denarius Moore

The 3-7 Raiders are on a three game losing streak and have a 1-4 road record. The 5-5 Bengals won their last two and are only 2-3 at home.The Raiders on the road tend to play great opponents close because it is a near trap game or they get handled by 35, 31 or 22 points. Bengals not likely to be trapped.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 220,2
RB Darren McFadden
RB Marcel Reece 60,1 6-50
WR James Jones 3-50,1
WR Denarius Moore 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: It is bad enough that the Raiders have lost their last three games, but they allowed 42, 55 and 38 points in the process. The wheels are wobbling again and mostly because of the defense. The owner may have gone to the locker room after the loss to the Saints to voice his unhappiness but that doesn't magically change that this is yet another lost season for the Raiders and they are playing like they realize that it is already over.

Carson Palmer hasn't often been a winning quarterback but he's made a nice fantasy starter if you can live with a couple of interceptions. He has seven games at or over 300 yards and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games. Most road games tend to be lower scoring if not lower in yardage as well but he remains a decent fantasy play weekly from being so consistently at 300 yards or more.

Darren McFadden may return this week but HC Dennis Allen remains vague about his status and week 12 was a target date for him to return after missing two weeks. A notoriously slow healer, only late week practices can help clear up his status this week if in fact he doesn't end up as a game time decision. In his place Marcel Reece has performed admirably if not actually better than McFadden. Reece produced 104 total yards and seven receptions in Baltimore and then 193 total yards last week against the Saints. I'll assume a third start for Reece until there is a concrete reason to change it.

Brandon Myers not only was able to immediately return from his concussion, but he had one of his best games with six receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. That's three scores in the last three games and he's been remarkably consistent with around 50 or 60 yards each week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was questionable last week but played and ended up with 69 yards on four catches versus the Saints which is sort of a default when anyone plays them. The miracle last week was that Denarius Moore only caught one pass for nine yards on his nine targets. Moore has been the best receiver for the Raiders and the only one that has topped 100 yards. The surprising part of this offense is that Palmer passes for up to 414 yards in a game and yet there has been only once that anyone had over 100 receiving yards. Rod Streater and Juron Criner figure in as minor contributors but this offense is all about throwing to Moore, Heyward-Bey and Myers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 9 9 18 8 9 30
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 5 25 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @SEA 0000017012 ****
Carr's had a couple of decent fantasy efforts during his rookie campaign; asking him to go to Seattle and pull one off... well, that's a bit too aggressive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK @SEA 4004200000 ***
McFadden is unlikely to dent the Seahawks on the ground, but he could salvage fantasy value via the air against a Seattle defense that's allowing almost 50 RB receiving yards per game over the past month.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK @SEA 40130000 ***
MJD's last two game have seen him carry the ball nine times for 14 yards. Ugh.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @SEA 005600000 **
Holmes will get his targets; the key will be holding on to them. Not enough upside here to warrant a start against a secondary that could very well throttle the life out of Oakland's passing game without blinking an eye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @SEA 003400000 ***
The Seahawks haven't allowed a WR TD since Week 5 or a WR TD at home since the season opener. Oakland's cast of characters doesn't feel like the group that's going to crack that code.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenbrell Thompkins, OAK @SEA 002300000 ***
If you were wondering where Kenbrell Thompkins ended up... well, here he is. He saw eight targets last week, but given this matchup with Seattle's secondary that number--as well as what Thompkins can do with those catches--is likely to dwindle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @SEA 003201000 *
Maybe the Raiders' best hope for fantasy value this week comes in the form of Rivera, who posted 7-83 on nine targets last week. He'll have a chance to exploit the lone fantasy weakness in this defense, an inability to defend tight ends. Seattle has surrendered eight TE TDs already this season; if Oakland is to get one, Rivera's probably the best bet.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @SEA 1111 ***
Seabass has yet to hit double-digit points, and Seattle seems like an unlikely venue for him to reach that milestone.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
RB Cedric Peerman 40
WR A.J. Green 7-90,1
WR Greg Little 3-40
WR Mohamed Sanu 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The remaining schedule is no cake walk for the Bengals and this week is likely as good as it gets. Ending at .500 will be a challenge but the offense is getting better and the defense can surprise. But in the end, this offense is pretty much Dalton-to-Green and everything else is a distant second. Fortunately, almost no one can stop the connection.

Andy Dalton is enjoying a great sophomore year wit a score in each of the last nine games and a total of 20 passing scores on the year. Of course half of those went to A.J. Green. Dalton threw over 300 yards three times but only once since week three and five of his last seven games produced less than 250 yards. He's a lock to throw a touchdown to A.J. Green but not much else is a guarantee and may or may not happen.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in Kansas City. He's been far more likely to turn in around 50 or 60 yards every week and scored only four times so far. He also takes no role as a receiver. Cedric Peerman is being used more in recent weeks with six carries against the Giants and eight runs for 75 yards on the Chiefs. He'll continue to erode the meager stats of Green-Ellis.

Jermaine Gresham is the #2 receiver for the Bengals and consistent with around 60 yards in most games and four scores on the season. He always has at least three catches and has produced as many as six receptions for 108 yards.

A.J. Green continues his nine game streak with at least one touchdown - that's is ridiculously rare for any receiver. He's as close to unstoppable as 2012 has seen. Green turns in 80 to 180 yards in almost every game and - always scores. They should just spot him one touchdown and give him the first half off. No other wideout matters much though Mohamed Sanu is making his move with a touchdown in each of the last two games. He still has yet to gain more than 47 yards though. Andrew Hawkins missed last week with a knee injury he suffered in Friday practice and is uncertain this week.

The Raiders rank poorly against all categories other than wide receivers where they are average. They rank among the worst against running backs and should give BGE his final decent game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 3 16 19 19
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 32 15 28 31 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN JAC 0000026020 ***
You'd think Dalton would be an automatic start against the Jags, but they've actually been a decent defense of late--especially against the pass, but that's because opposing QBs are averaging just 33 passing attempts against the non-threatening Jags. Hue Jackson doesn't need an excuse to run more, so this is less about the matchup and more about Dalton simply handing off too much to be of fantasy value this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN JAC 8011100000 ****
Hill has scored in three of four at home, where he's averaging 10 carries a game. Surprisingly facing the Jags is not a favorable statistical matchup for opposing backs, but you know Hue Jackson is going to run the ball right down Jacksonville's gullet so there should be ample opportunity for Hill to be a fantasy helper as well.
Update: With Giovani Bernard ruled out, Hill steps up as the Bengals feature back this week. He's proven up to handling the workload and zooms up the weekly rankings to borderline must-start status.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Cedric Peerman, CIN JAC 200000000 ***
Update: Peerman and Rex Burkhead will handle complementary back duties while Jeremy Hill steps up to Giovani Bernard's feature back workload. There's garbage time potential here; if you're in a larger league where backs are tough to come by, a dozen late carries against the Jags might be enough to get Peerman on your fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN JAC 004801000 *
Green returned to practice this week but you needn't rush to get him back in your lineup as Jacksonville is not the cream puff matchup you might expect; they've allowed just one WR TD in the past month. No reason to over-extend Green until he's needed, so there's a good chance he'll get some token snaps while the ground game and Mohamed Sanu do the heavy lifting. It's certainly worth revisiting on Friday, in case Green is lights out in practice.
Update: Green practiced on a limited basis all week and is officially listed as questionable for this tilt. He's demonstrated the ability to play through pain, but he's been down for close to a month so at minimum expect a little rust.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN JAC 006800000 ***
Sanu is a solid wingman who sparkled when asked to fill AJ Green's shoes as the Bengals feature receiver. With Green back at practice Sanu returns to wingman duties, and a matchup with a surprisingly effective Jacksonville secondary suggests he's a fringe fantasy play at best this week.
Update: With AJ Green potentially back Sanu shifts from WR1 to WR2... unless the Bengals are using Green as a decoy. Either way Sanu's upside takes a hit so plan accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Little, CIN JAC 003300000 ***
With AJ Green returning to action there's no need to dig any further down the Bengals' WR depth chart than WR2 Mohamed Sanu.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN JAC 004300000 ****
Over the past three games Gresham has 23 targets, 20 catches, and zero TDs. Jacksonville is a decent matchup for TEs so if you're in a bye week bind he's better than a sharp stick in the eye, but don't go overboard with your expectations.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN JAC 1133 ****
Everybody gets their kicks against the Jags, who have allowed multiple field goals in seven of eight and an average of 10 kicker points per game. Nugent should be no exception.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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