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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, CIN 27 (Line:CIN by 8)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Andrew Hawkins

Players to Watch: Cedric Peerman, Denarius Moore

The 3-7 Raiders are on a three game losing streak and have a 1-4 road record. The 5-5 Bengals won their last two and are only 2-3 at home.The Raiders on the road tend to play great opponents close because it is a near trap game or they get handled by 35, 31 or 22 points. Bengals not likely to be trapped.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Michael Crabtree 5-70,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: It is bad enough that the Raiders have lost their last three games, but they allowed 42, 55 and 38 points in the process. The wheels are wobbling again and mostly because of the defense. The owner may have gone to the locker room after the loss to the Saints to voice his unhappiness but that doesn't magically change that this is yet another lost season for the Raiders and they are playing like they realize that it is already over.

Carson Palmer hasn't often been a winning quarterback but he's made a nice fantasy starter if you can live with a couple of interceptions. He has seven games at or over 300 yards and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games. Most road games tend to be lower scoring if not lower in yardage as well but he remains a decent fantasy play weekly from being so consistently at 300 yards or more.

Darren McFadden may return this week but HC Dennis Allen remains vague about his status and week 12 was a target date for him to return after missing two weeks. A notoriously slow healer, only late week practices can help clear up his status this week if in fact he doesn't end up as a game time decision. In his place Marcel Reece has performed admirably if not actually better than McFadden. Reece produced 104 total yards and seven receptions in Baltimore and then 193 total yards last week against the Saints. I'll assume a third start for Reece until there is a concrete reason to change it.

Brandon Myers not only was able to immediately return from his concussion, but he had one of his best games with six receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. That's three scores in the last three games and he's been remarkably consistent with around 50 or 60 yards each week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was questionable last week but played and ended up with 69 yards on four catches versus the Saints which is sort of a default when anyone plays them. The miracle last week was that Denarius Moore only caught one pass for nine yards on his nine targets. Moore has been the best receiver for the Raiders and the only one that has topped 100 yards. The surprising part of this offense is that Palmer passes for up to 414 yards in a game and yet there has been only once that anyone had over 100 receiving yards. Rod Streater and Juron Criner figure in as minor contributors but this offense is all about throwing to Moore, Heyward-Bey and Myers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 9 9 18 8 9 30
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 5 25 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK BUF 0000026020 ***
Providing the 12th highest chance for success has translated into being the sixth worst defense of quarterbacks for the Bills since Week 7. The position has the sixth fewest yards per game figure against Buffalo, yet passers have thrown a touchdown every 8.8 completions, which is the second most efficient stat in this time. Carr's twice-dislocated pinkie shouldn't be an issue.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, OAK BUF 5014400000 ***
Basically, the only bright spot for running backs against the Bills is via the rushing touchdown. This is the ninth weakest group in that category over the past five weeks. Otherwise, it's a low-end matchup across the board.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK BUF 2003200000 ***
This is too tough of a matchup for receiving backs to consider risking a lineup spot on Richard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Seth Roberts, OAK BUF 003301000 **
Roberts is a good place to look if you are desperate for any kind of lineup-worthy production because of his penchant to score TDs. The Bills have given up a TD every 7.2 catches, which is the third best opportunity for him to find the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK BUF 006700000 ***
The Bills have given up the eighth most points per reception but the fourth fewest catches, so there's a big trade-off to weigh. This is the third most easily exploited defense for scoring TDs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK BUF 005600000 ***
The Bills have done a great job of shutting down receivers in catches and yards, but wideouts have scored a touchdown every 7.2 grabs -- the third most generous clip in fantasy since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK BUF 002101000 **
Oakland often involves the position near the end zone, but it's a weekly guessing game. The Bills at least have allowed TEs to score at the third highest clip, which gives some confidence in Rivera's chances.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clive Walford, OAK BUF 002300000 ***
Walford is finally healthy and seeing an uptick in his involvement. The Bills are atrocious at stopping tight ends from scoring touchdowns, so there is a glimmer of hope for Walford in cavernous setups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK BUF 1133 ***
Buffalo has allowed 14 XPAs but just three field goal tries in its last five weeks, which is one of the more lopsided defensive efforts against the position. It fits Oakland's offensive design, though.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
RB Cedric Peerman 40
WR A.J. Green 7-90,1
WR Brandon LaFell 5-60
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The remaining schedule is no cake walk for the Bengals and this week is likely as good as it gets. Ending at .500 will be a challenge but the offense is getting better and the defense can surprise. But in the end, this offense is pretty much Dalton-to-Green and everything else is a distant second. Fortunately, almost no one can stop the connection.

Andy Dalton is enjoying a great sophomore year wit a score in each of the last nine games and a total of 20 passing scores on the year. Of course half of those went to A.J. Green. Dalton threw over 300 yards three times but only once since week three and five of his last seven games produced less than 250 yards. He's a lock to throw a touchdown to A.J. Green but not much else is a guarantee and may or may not happen.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in Kansas City. He's been far more likely to turn in around 50 or 60 yards every week and scored only four times so far. He also takes no role as a receiver. Cedric Peerman is being used more in recent weeks with six carries against the Giants and eight runs for 75 yards on the Chiefs. He'll continue to erode the meager stats of Green-Ellis.

Jermaine Gresham is the #2 receiver for the Bengals and consistent with around 60 yards in most games and four scores on the season. He always has at least three catches and has produced as many as six receptions for 108 yards.

A.J. Green continues his nine game streak with at least one touchdown - that's is ridiculously rare for any receiver. He's as close to unstoppable as 2012 has seen. Green turns in 80 to 180 yards in almost every game and - always scores. They should just spot him one touchdown and give him the first half off. No other wideout matters much though Mohamed Sanu is making his move with a touchdown in each of the last two games. He still has yet to gain more than 47 yards though. Andrew Hawkins missed last week with a knee injury he suffered in Friday practice and is uncertain this week.

The Raiders rank poorly against all categories other than wide receivers where they are average. They rank among the worst against running backs and should give BGE his final decent game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 3 16 19 19
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 32 15 28 31 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN PHI 0000025011 ***
Dalton simply doesn't have enough weapons to warrant a fantasy start. Philadelphia has allowed only one 300-yard passer on the season, and this is a neutral matchup if you remove Aaron Rodgers' destruction against them in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN PHI 7013300000 ***
Philadelphia has given up only two touchdowns on the last 102 attempts faced. This is the fifth worst matchup for a running back looking to find the end zone based on data over the last five weeks. Hill will need to defy the odds -- or least get a good shot from short range -- to find paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rex Burkhead, CIN PHI 2002200000 ***
Replacing Gio Bernard, Burkhead managed seven offensive touches last week. There is little reason to trust him in any lineup, especially against fantasy's fourth worst matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN PHI 005601000 ***
The rookie has been thrust into a larger role with A.J. Green on the mend. Philly represents the third best potential for points, which has led to the fourth most on a per-game basis (44.0 for teams in PPR). Wide receivers have scored at the fifth most frequent rate against this defense since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN PHI 004400000 ***
Over the last five weeks, receivers have tallied averages of 13 receptions, 210.2 yards and a score every 8.1 grabs -- all top-12 numbers for the position. LaFell is a decent flex play in Week 13.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Eifert, CIN PHI 005700000 ***
The Eagles have given up the second fewest catches and third fewest yards per game since Week 7, but allowing a TD every eight catches translates to this being the fifth worst at keeping the position out of the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN PHI 2222 ***
The seventh most field goal attempts allowed plus the 13th highest average of XPAs translates to Philly allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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