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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: OAK 20, CIN 27 (Line:CIN by 8)

Players Updated: Darren McFadden, Andrew Hawkins

Players to Watch: Cedric Peerman, Denarius Moore

The 3-7 Raiders are on a three game losing streak and have a 1-4 road record. The 5-5 Bengals won their last two and are only 2-3 at home.The Raiders on the road tend to play great opponents close because it is a near trap game or they get handled by 35, 31 or 22 points. Bengals not likely to be trapped.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN -----
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE -----
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN -----
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 220,2
RB Darren McFadden
RB Marcel Reece 60,1 6-50
WR James Jones 3-50,1
WR Denarius Moore 5-70
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: It is bad enough that the Raiders have lost their last three games, but they allowed 42, 55 and 38 points in the process. The wheels are wobbling again and mostly because of the defense. The owner may have gone to the locker room after the loss to the Saints to voice his unhappiness but that doesn't magically change that this is yet another lost season for the Raiders and they are playing like they realize that it is already over.

Carson Palmer hasn't often been a winning quarterback but he's made a nice fantasy starter if you can live with a couple of interceptions. He has seven games at or over 300 yards and has thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of the last four games. Most road games tend to be lower scoring if not lower in yardage as well but he remains a decent fantasy play weekly from being so consistently at 300 yards or more.

Darren McFadden may return this week but HC Dennis Allen remains vague about his status and week 12 was a target date for him to return after missing two weeks. A notoriously slow healer, only late week practices can help clear up his status this week if in fact he doesn't end up as a game time decision. In his place Marcel Reece has performed admirably if not actually better than McFadden. Reece produced 104 total yards and seven receptions in Baltimore and then 193 total yards last week against the Saints. I'll assume a third start for Reece until there is a concrete reason to change it.

Brandon Myers not only was able to immediately return from his concussion, but he had one of his best games with six receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. That's three scores in the last three games and he's been remarkably consistent with around 50 or 60 yards each week.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was questionable last week but played and ended up with 69 yards on four catches versus the Saints which is sort of a default when anyone plays them. The miracle last week was that Denarius Moore only caught one pass for nine yards on his nine targets. Moore has been the best receiver for the Raiders and the only one that has topped 100 yards. The surprising part of this offense is that Palmer passes for up to 414 yards in a game and yet there has been only once that anyone had over 100 receiving yards. Rod Streater and Juron Criner figure in as minor contributors but this offense is all about throwing to Moore, Heyward-Bey and Myers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 9 9 18 8 9 30
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 5 25 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @NE 0000020013 ***
Carr has been meh through his first two games, and aside from garbage time there's no reason to expect him to outperform Matt Cassel (202 & 1) or Ryan Tannehill (178 & 2) against the Patriots.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK @NE 4003200000 ***
McFadden's best bet, assuming he gets the snaps because Maurice Jones-Drew and his bum hand can't go, is some sort of receiving score; the Pats have allowed RB receiving TDs in back-to-back contests. Otherwise, nothing compelling about McFadden's ground potential against the Pats this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @NE 005501000 ***
Jones has scored in each of his games as a Raider, but all that means is Darrelle Revis will be acutely aware of where Jones is at all times. Nothing says you have to start a Raider this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Denarius Moore, OAK @NE 003400000 ***
Moore is clinging to the fringe of fantasy relevancy as he battles Andre Holmes and Rod Streater for looks in Oakland's unproductive passing game. If you're using him here you're playing the "not being covered by Revis" card. Good luck with that.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @NE 003300000 ***
Rivera has posted matching 31-yard performances thus far, so if 31 yards gets you bonus points in your fantasy league... he's your guy.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @NE 1111 ***
No kicker has fewer fantasy points; 30 have more. You can do better.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK -----
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD -----
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL -----
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 250,2
RB Cedric Peerman 40
WR A.J. Green 7-90,1
WR Mohamed Sanu 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-60,1
PK Mike Nugent 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The remaining schedule is no cake walk for the Bengals and this week is likely as good as it gets. Ending at .500 will be a challenge but the offense is getting better and the defense can surprise. But in the end, this offense is pretty much Dalton-to-Green and everything else is a distant second. Fortunately, almost no one can stop the connection.

Andy Dalton is enjoying a great sophomore year wit a score in each of the last nine games and a total of 20 passing scores on the year. Of course half of those went to A.J. Green. Dalton threw over 300 yards three times but only once since week three and five of his last seven games produced less than 250 yards. He's a lock to throw a touchdown to A.J. Green but not much else is a guarantee and may or may not happen.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 101 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in Kansas City. He's been far more likely to turn in around 50 or 60 yards every week and scored only four times so far. He also takes no role as a receiver. Cedric Peerman is being used more in recent weeks with six carries against the Giants and eight runs for 75 yards on the Chiefs. He'll continue to erode the meager stats of Green-Ellis.

Jermaine Gresham is the #2 receiver for the Bengals and consistent with around 60 yards in most games and four scores on the season. He always has at least three catches and has produced as many as six receptions for 108 yards.

A.J. Green continues his nine game streak with at least one touchdown - that's is ridiculously rare for any receiver. He's as close to unstoppable as 2012 has seen. Green turns in 80 to 180 yards in almost every game and - always scores. They should just spot him one touchdown and give him the first half off. No other wideout matters much though Mohamed Sanu is making his move with a touchdown in each of the last two games. He still has yet to gain more than 47 yards though. Andrew Hawkins missed last week with a knee injury he suffered in Friday practice and is uncertain this week.

The Raiders rank poorly against all categories other than wide receivers where they are average. They rank among the worst against running backs and should give BGE his final decent game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 10 26 3 16 19 19
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 32 15 28 31 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN TEN 0000025010 ***
Not to slap a "caretaker" or "game manager" label on Dalton, but he's produced two wins while throwing a total of two TDs and ranking 22nd among QBs in pass attempts. The Titans haven't allowed much in the way of passing success themselves, so keep a lid on fantasy expectations here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN TEN 8015600000 ***
A week after allowing 173 combo yards (167 rushing) to DeMarco Murray the Titans face Bernard, who has games of 110 and 169 yards from scrimmage this season. About the only concern is that Jeremy Hill swipes a touchdown, but that would be quibbling.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN TEN 6011100000 ***
Being the junior partner in a backfield committee isn't all bad--especially when you still get 15 carries of your own, and you face a defense that just served up 220 rushing yards the week before. Getting goal line looks doesn't hurt, either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN TEN 005801000 ****
Early word is Green is expected to play on his bum toe this week; if he's well enough to play, he's well enough to be in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN TEN 004500000 ***
Sanu did a serviceable impression of AJ Green last week when Cincy's WR1 went down with a toe injury. And seeing as the Titans seem comfortable allowing stats to whomever is handling a team's WR1 duties at the time (Dez Bryant, obviously, last week but Donnie Avery 7-84 in Dwayne Bowe's absence Week 1), if Green can't go Sanu should again prove worthy of fantasy attention.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Tate, CIN TEN 003400000 ***
The Titans haven't surrendered much of anything to secondary targets thus far this season, nor have the Bengals thrown to them. Plan accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, CIN TEN 003300000 ***
Despite the absence of the injured Tyler Eifert Gresham remains more of a blocker than a fantasy threat. No reason to reach here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN TEN 2233 ***
The Bengals have given Nugent ample opportunity this season; no kicker has more field goal attempts. He'll need to connect at a better than 25% rate--his percentage last week--to turn those opportunities into fantasy help.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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