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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 1-10
WR Sidney Rice 4-50,1
TE Zach Miller 3-20
TE Tony Moeaki 5-70
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA STL 60100021010 ***
Eli Manning's 391 and 3 last week against the Rams was the first multiple touchdown game St. Louis had allowed since... well, since Wilson turned the trick with 313 and 2 back in Week 7. Wilson added 106 rushing yards and a rushing score as well, yielding a fantasy line not unlike last week's against Arizona. Can lightning strike again? Given the way Wilson is augmenting his passing numbers with a consistent dose of rushing stats, odds are it's a yes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA STL 10011100000 ****
The Rams just let Andre Williams run over them for 110 yards in their house; what chance do they have against Lynch in his, where he's averaging 85 yards and almost 1.5 touchdowns per game? St. Louis slowed him in the front end of the season series (18-53), but so did Arizona and Lynch burned them with 113 and 2 in the rematch. So, advantage Skittles.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA STL 006800000 ***
While it's tough to identify which nameless face will step up at any given time to represent the Seattle receivers, you can make a compelling case for Baldwin this week. He had 7-123-1 in the earlier meeting with St. Louis and comes off 7-113 last week. Those games represent the only 100-yard games by Seattle receivers this year, so if it's going to happen again he's the most likely candidate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA STL 006700000 ***
Richardson saw the second-most targets last week against Arizona, but he's far too inconsistent a fantasy contributor to be banked on this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Luke Willson, SEA STL 002301000 *
The Rams have allowed only two TE TDs all season--but one went to Cooper Helfet in the earlier meeting between these clubs, and Wilson shredded the Cardinals last week with 139 yards and a pair of scores. So we're sayin' there's a chance.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA STL 1144 ***
If you can get over Hauschka's oh-fer last week, it's a genuine opportunity. The Rams have given up 34 kicker points the past three games, suggesting Hauschka has a chance to upgrade on the eight points he scored in the earlier meeting in St. Louis.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 200
RB Daniel Thomas 30 2-10
WR Brandon Gibson 4-50,1
WR Brian Hartline 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1
TE Dustin Keller 4-60

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA NYJ 0000028021 ***
Tannehill comes off a four-TD outing and back-to-back 300-yard affairs to host a Jets' defense that's allowed multiple passing scores in six of seven road games and 11 of 15 overall. Expect a significant upgrade over his 235 and zero from a month ago.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA NYJ 5004300000 ***
The Jets are a formidable run D, but Miller scored on them in the last meeting and has scored or topped 89 combo yards in every home game this season so don't bet against him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA NYJ 006701000 ***
WR TDs have been hard to come by of late against the Jets, but if there is to be one it will most likely go to Wallace; he's scored three in the last two games. Otherwise settle for decent yardage against a Jets secondary that's allowed 10 100-yard receiving games this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NYJ 0081000000 ***
Landry and Mike Wallace both clocked in just shy of 70 yards in the earlier meeting with the Jets. Expect both to see a bump up in yardage at home, with Landry on equal footing with Wallace since the Jets have been just as friendly to WR2s (9 TDs vs. 5 by WR1s, 4 100-yard games vs. 6 by WR1s).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA NYJ 006501000 ***
Clay missed the earlier meeting with the Jets due to injury; Dion Sims filled in admirably with 4-58. Now, coming off a 6-114 showing against the Vikings Clay has an opportunity to get his against a Jets' defense that's allowed a league-high 13 TE TDs on the year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA NYJ 2222 ***
Sturgis tallied 10 points when the Dolphins beat the Jets in New York a month ago, and with multiple treys in eight of his last 10 he's a reasonable bet to approach that number in the rematch.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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