FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 1-10
TE Zach Miller 3-20
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA OAK 30000023020 ****
After a little tease of what he's capable off, Wilson has returned to doing just what is necessary for a Seahawks win. So while it's a favorable matchup on paper, Seattle may not need much more than the bare minimum from Wilson--about the only damper on his fantasy potential this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA OAK 10012201000 ****
It's a home game, which usually means 20-plus touches for Lynch and the accompanying fantasy stats that go with. Oakland has allowed RB TDs in four straight, no reason to think Lynch grabs the Skittles before adding to that total here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA OAK 005601000 **
Game Two post-Percy and Baldwin was still the most targeted and most prolific of Seattle's wideouts--only instead of 123 and 1, now it's back to the usual 61 and no TD. Oakland's allowed five WR TDs in the past four games so maybe Baldwin gets one here, but the passing game hasn't been a Seattle priority for quite some time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA OAK 002200000 ***
Four guys caught balls in the battle to be Doug Baldwin's main wingman. Richardson has perhaps the most upside, but in a run-heavy offense with so many mouths to feed he's still more of a fantasy risk than you should need to take.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Luke Willson, SEA OAK 002200000 ****
Gronk and Gates have scored on Oakland, but aside from that they haven't surrendered much to the position--certainly not so much that Willson and his one or two catches a week look like a significant fantasy helper.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA OAK 2233 ****
Hauschka's baseline is in the 6-7 point range, which is the minimum the Raiders have allowed and a mark he's bested in all but one outing this season. And things go up from there.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 200
RB Daniel Thomas 30 2-10
WR Brandon Gibson 4-50,1
WR Brian Hartline 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA SD 50000024011 ***
Tannehill has multiple TD tosses in three of his last four, including his last two at home. The Chargers are certainly softer on the road, surrendering multiple scoring strikes in three of four away from home. It all makes Tannehill at least worthy of consideration in a six-team bye week, though there's a cap to his upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA SD 6013300000 ****
Over the past three games the Chargers have allowed three 80-yard rushers and four RB TDs. With no one challenging Miller for carries, he should at least threaten both of those opportunities and kick in another 20-plus receiving yards as well--more than enough to make him fantasy-relevant this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA SD 005801000 **
Over the past three weeks the Chargers have allowed seven WR TDs and three 100-yard receivers; as the most targeted Dolphin Wallace is far and away the front runner for both of those marks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA SD 004500000 ***
Landry has bumped ahead of Brian Hartline in the Miami passing game pecking order, and with San Diego's pass D softening as of late he's at least worthy of fringe fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA SD 003300000 ***
Not only is this a tough matchup with a San Diego defense that's allowed only one TE TD all year, Clay is battling Dion Sims on his own roster for TE looks in the Miami passing game.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA SD 2222 ****
Sturgis has flirted with double digits the past two weeks but hasn't actually hit that mark since Week 1. He's a decent option, but there appears to be a ceiling to his fantasy prospects.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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