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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
TE Jimmy Graham 6-60,1
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA SF 10000026020 ***
San Fran doesn't have the pass rush of LA, so Wilson should be able to fare a little better this week. Look for a nice rebound game to help jump-start his fantasy season. RW3 is a midrange QB1 in most formats this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christine Michael, SEA SF 10014300000 **
Unless he finds the end zone, Michael is a fringe fantasy pick this week. The Niners have done a solid job against the position, albeit with so-so matchups, and rank as the fourth most difficult to face.

Update: Thomas Rawls is doubtful, which thrusts Michael into the primary role. He's a worthwhile RB2 and sound DFS value buy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA SF 006801000 **
Baldwin twisted his knee but appears closer to playing than not. He is a must-play when on the field, so check back Friday. San Fran ranks 18th against PPR wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA SF 004600000 ***
Lockett was temporarily removed from Week 2 play but came back late in the game. He's expected to play, but check the Friday injury report for reassurance. He'll see more balls if Doug Baldwin (knee) is limited. Regardless, Lockett has a minor sleeper appeal this week against the 18th-ranked WR defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA SF 004501000 **
The Niners have allowed TEs to catch a line of 8-139-1 in two games, primarily at the hands of Greg Olsen. Graham isn't ready, despite being on the field. Avoid him in standard formats if you can. Doug Baldwin's injury could force Seattle to target Graham more, however, so bravely take that chance in DFS contests.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA SF 1133 ***
This one should come down to far more extra point tries than field goal kicks. At least he's safe to make what he attempts.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 200
RB Arian Foster 100,1

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA CLE 20000033030 ***
Tannehill racked up 31 points in garbage time last week and faces a Cleveland defense that ranks 14th in points surrendered to his position. Carson Wentz produced 22 points, while Joe Flacco was good for 23.2. Tannehill should dwarf those numbers in what is a mismatch of talent all around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenyan Drake, MIA CLE 5003200000 *
Drake saw 15 percent of the snaps once Arian Foster went out last weekend, and his role will increase with the vet once again on the mend. Drake is likely to be the lightning to Jay Ajayi's thunder, making him a more valuable PPR commodity. The Browns have given up only seven catches for 56 yards to RBs, though. Play with caution.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA CLE 4004200000 **
Arian Foster saw 10 offensive snaps before leaving Week 2 with an injury. The touch breakdown concluded with Ajayi seeing 57 percent of the plays, while Kenyan Drake received 15 percent. A week after being inactive, Ajayi lead Miami's offense in action. The Browns are respectable against his position, ranking as the 11th toughest in two weeks (PHI, BAL as opponents). Slide Ajayi into your flex spot this week, only if you must play him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA CLE 0081202000 ***
Ten teams have been easier on the position than Cleveland. The Browns have given up the second most TDs to wideouts this year. Landry is obviously a PPR threat any given week, but this one could be an extremely fruitful matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA CLE 006801000 ***
It may surprise you to realize Parker has just one fewer point than Jarvis Landry in PPR over the past seven games, dating back to 2015. Cleveland has permitted four touchdowns on only 23 catches to wide receivers, good for the 11th softest matchup for the position. Parker played 92 percent of the snaps in Week 2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA CLE 002300000 ***
Stills was on the field more any any Dolphins receiver in Week 2's furious but failed comeback bid against New England. The PT translated to only four targets, but one of which found the end zone. Play him in DFS and as a traditional flex or risky WR3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA CLE 004400000 **
While the Browns haven't given up a tight end touchdown yet, they are allowing the sixth most points to the position by way of the highest number of receptions (17) and yardage (193). A "bend but don't break" defense indeed. Cameron is a solid sleeper play in Week 3.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA CLE 2233 ***
Franks is barely playable but could turn in a good outing for brazen fantasy owners.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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