FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 1-10
WR Percy Harvin 10 2-20
TE Zach Miller 3-20
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA DEN 20000020021 ***
Wilson has multiple TD tosses in his last three games, including 206 and 2 in the Super Bowl win over Denver. That's enough to make him a consistent low-end fantasy contributor, with the upside of anything he brings to the table as a rusher.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA DEN 8012100000 ****
Lynch didn't contribute a ton to the Super Bowl win, and he was shut down by the Chargers last week in San Diego. However, he's rock solid at home and should find success against a defense that let Knile Davis rack up 79 yards and score twice against them last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, SEA DEN 4002301000 ***
Harvin doesn't need to touch the ball to impact opposing defenses--though sadly that impact doesn't do much for fantasy bottom lines. Expect the Seahawks to find ways to get the ball into Harvin's hands, with the result being enough productivity to warrant a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA DEN 003400000 ***
Not that Seattle's tertiary offensive players don't contribute; more that they don't contribute consistently and therefore are difficult to trust with a fantasy start. As the secondary receiver in a run-first offense, Baldwin falls directly into that category.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA DEN 002300000 ***
Kearse's 61 yards last week mark the best showing by a Seahawk wideout this season. Of course, that came on the heels of a one-catch, eight-yard outing in the opener so he can't be trusted with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA DEN 003300000 ***
The upside to Miller is that the Broncos allowed a TE TD in Week 1 and 130 yards to the position last week. The downside is that 130 is double Miller's year-to-date yardage and he has yet to visit the end zone this year. Positive matchup, but not a player you can trust to take advantage.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA DEN 2233 ***
Kicking on a team with enough offense to get you there and enough defense to allow you to settle for field goals ain't a bad gig at all; just ask Hauschka.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 200
RB Daniel Thomas 30 2-10
WR Brandon Gibson 4-50,1
WR Brian Hartline 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA KC 0000023020 ***
Tannehill remains a bundle of untapped fantasy potential, but this matchup with a KC defense that's made fantasy starters of both Peyton Manning and Jake Locker should allow him to tap at least some of that upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA KC 8012100000 ***
Miller is poised to capitalize on Knowshon Moreno's absence; this matchup with a Chiefs defense that has allowed 210 RB rushing yards to the Titans and Broncos--at better than five yards a pop--can only help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA KC 006701000 ***
The Chiefs have surrendered 50-plus yards and/or a touchdown to multiple receivers in each game. Given that Wallace has both of Miami's WR TDs and is the most targeted member of that unit, he'll take his bite off the top.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA KC 005500000 ***
Multiple wideouts have scored and or topped 50 yards in each of KC's first two games; if Miami is to follow that trend, Hartline would be the favorite to join Mike Wallace in the fantasy winner's circle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA KC 005401000 ***
Despite 14 targets Clay has produced just 58 yards this season. However, that volume suggests he should be able to tap into a Chiefs defense that has surrendered three TE TDs already this year--making him a valuable fantasy commodity in TD-heavy scoring systems.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA KC 1133 ***
Sturgis was big at home in Week 1, not so much on the road in Week 2. Settle somewhere in the middle, which puts him on the fence as far as fantasy contributions go.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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