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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: SEA 20, MIA 6 (Line: SEA by 3)

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch

The 6-4 Seahawks come off their bye but are only 1-4 on the road. The 4-6 Dolphins are 2-2 at home but have lost their last three games.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA -----
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 20 210,1
RB Bryce Brown 80,1 3-20
RB Fred Jackson 50 3-20
TE Jimmy Graham 6-60,1
PK Steven Hauschka 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Chances are we have already seen the best of the Seahawks offense since the remaining schedule contains several very tough matchups and maybe even the Bills game is not going to be as promising given last week and what they did to these Dolphins. But the defense is not facing many great offenses and so should remain one of the top units in the league. The season may come down to those final two home games and the Seahawks always play better at home. Much better.

Russell Wilson scored two or three times in each of the last three games but only with minor yardage in each and he's been blanked twice this year - both on the road against the better defenses of the Rams and 49ers. His yardage keeps him from being a fantasy option with seven games of under 200 yards. He's a safe bet to score once or twice in home games but otherwise he better left on your bench.

Shades of 2011. Marshawn Lynch is getting better and better as the season progresses and he is currently on a four game streak of 100+ rushing yards and scored in each of the last three. He's been a lock for 100 total yards in road games and 150+ total yards when at home.

Sidney Rice never gets more than around 60 yards but has scored in four of the last five games but only one of those came on the road. GOlden Tate scored three times in the last two weeks but both of those were home games. He also rarely has more than 50 yards in any game and was even blanked in San Francisco.

The Seahawks live and die by their defense and the rushing of Lynch. Any passing is just to keep the defenses honest and to score in home games. The only safe play on this team is Marshawn Lynch. The problem this week is that the best part of the Miami defense is against the run which is the strength of the Seahawks. And they are weakest against the pass which is also the weakness of the Seahawks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 27 20 25 27 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 17 6 25 13 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @ARI 0000023011 ***
Since being held to 240 and 1 by the Cardinals in Week 10 Wilson has ripped off six straight with multiple touchdowns, averaging better than 32 fantasy points per game during that span. The difference is that the six defenses Wilson faced during that span have an average rank of 19 against QBs; the Cardinals rank ninth. Don't discount Wilson entirely, but don't expect nearly the robust performance you've been enjoying the past six weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christine Michael, SEA @ARI 4002200000 ***
We've seen nothing from Michael--against a legit run defense, anyway--to suggest he's capable of filling Marshawn Lynch's (or even Thomas Rawls') shoes. The Cards haven't allowed a back to top 70 yards against them since Week 6; Michael's no threat to that streak.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bryce Brown, SEA @ARI 200000000 ***
Brown was more productive than Christine Michael last week--if you can call seven carries for nine yards more productive than six for six. Half a share of a shaky backfield against a top-10 run defense does not a fantasy starter make.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @ARI 004601000 **
Prior to facing the Cardinals back in Week 10 Baldwin was just another guy with two TDs averaging 43 yards per game. His 7-134-1 kicked off an epic second half of the season that's seen Baldwin score a dozen times and top 100 thrice. Perhaps Arizona will pay more attention to him this time around, but it's not as if the previous teams in his five game scoring streak didn't see him coming so business as usual for the new and improved Baldwin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @ARI 003500000 ***
Lockett has been more than just an observer to Doug Baldwin's second-half blow-up, contributing five TDs and 60-plus yards per game over the past six weeks. But he'll run headlong into an Arizona defense that held him to one catch in the previous meeting and has allowed just two WR TDs and only one secondary target to top 52 yards since that earlier matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @ARI 003300000 ***
As the third man in to Seattle's sudden passing game surge Kearse has had fantasy value when facing softer matchups. This isn't such a matchup, so don't reach for him here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @ARI 3311 ***
Tough to score on Cards
Hauschka's eight points in first game
feels like a ceiling

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA -----
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE -----
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF -----
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 200
RB Daniel Thomas 30 2-10

Pregame Notes: The loss in Buffalo was a double-whammy. First it dropped the Dolphins to 4-6 and made even the most optimistic fan realize "probably not going to happen this year.. again...". Secondly and for our purposes even worse - they faced the weak Bills defense and played like they were in Chicago. Ryan Tannehill only passed for 141 yards and one score with two interceptions. All combined, the running backs gained 53 yards on 23 carries. Against the Bills. It is alarming for all players on this team.

Tannehill has never been relevant to fantasy since he's thrown just six touchdowns this year and 11 interceptions. His 431 yards in Arizona back in week four was really about two to three games worth combined. He's an average quarterback at best with marginal production.

Reggie Bush just gets worse and worse. In Buffalo, he only gained 20 yards on ten carries and the previous week ran four times for 21 yards before getting benched for fumbling. Bush has the look of someone who will not be back next year when his current contract has expired and who isn't pressing like he did earlier in the year. Daniel Thomas is sharing carries and doing more with them but no back here has more than very marginal fantasy value and even less so this week with the Seahawks showing up.

The meager passing has left the wide receivers and tight ends with no real fantasy value beyond Brian Hartline. But even he scored only once this year and too often ends up with fewer than 50 receiving yards. When facing a really weak secondary, Hartline will end up with eight or more catches but he only caught four passes for 49 yards in Buffalo and aside from his one 253 yard game in Arizona has been only a marginal play in reception point leagues.

Now the floundering Dolphins have to face a top five defense against the pass - which they really don't have - and a top ten unit against the run - which they are not doing well anyway. There is no safe fantasy play on the Dolphins this week, not even Hartline.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 32 8 27 31 31 21
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 3 8 3 14 7 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA NE 0000023011 ***
No way can the mercurial Tannehill be trusted. He threw for 300 yards in the earlier meeting with the Pats and topped that number last week but hasn't had a multiple touchdown tame since Week 12. With New England still looking to lock down home field advantage, they won't be mailing this one in; the same can't be said for the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NE 2001100000 ***
At this juncture all Ajayi is doing is sabotaging what little fantasy value Lamar Miller brings to the table each week. Let's hope the Dolphins resolve this situation in the offseason so we don't have another year of this.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NE 006801000 ***
Landry is always a PPR helper, but that's been about all you can bank on of late. Still, volume often leads to upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NE 005700000 ***
Parker has taken over Rishard Matthews' gig, and it was Matthews who saw the most WR targets in the earlier meeting with New England. Plus it's been bigger receivers--Brandon Marshall, Dorial Green-Beckham--who have put up the best numbers against the Patriots secondary. So there's a chance Parker falls into some fantasy relevancy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA NE 003300000 ***
Cameron hasn't topped 35 yards since Week 2 and hasn't scored since Week 11. He's too lightly used to threaten the Patriots, as his earlier 2-34 against them suggests.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA NE 1111 ***
Multiple treys in
three of 15 games this year
thanks for nothing, Franks

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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