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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20 (Line: TEN by 3)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Jalen Parmele

The 4-6 Titans come off their biggest win of the year when they plowed over the Dolphins back in week ten. They come off their bye to face the 1-9 Jaguars who have lost seven straight but nearly pulled off a huge upset in Houston last week. The Titans lost 14-16 during the season opener in Jacksonville last year. They later won 23-17 when they hosted in week 16.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 20 250,2
RB Jackie Battle 10
RB Shonn Greene 50
WR Nate Washington 5-70,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically already over but at least the Jaguars will provide two more chances for a Titan's win. There has been some progress made this year with Chris Johnson finally running as well as 2010 and before. Jake Locker started the year but dislocating his shoulder robbed him of five games and pushed his development back. Somehow this defense held the Dolphins to only three points after surrendering 51 points to the Bears just the previous week. This remains one of the weaker defenses in the league and that will be where the offseason will concentrate on more in the offseason.

Jake Locker came back in week ten but only completed nine of 21 passes for 122 yards in Miami though he threw two touchdowns. Locker threw at least one score in each of his four uninjured starts and scored twice in each of his last two. Aside from the home game against the Lions, Locker been very marginal as a passer so far. His bigger arm helps the passing game in ways that Matt Hasselbeck can no longer do but Locker is only 1-3 as a starter this year.

Chris Johnson made it four games in a row with over 100 total yards and scored four times in just the last four games. He's been back to vintage CJ2K with 141 rush yards on the Bears and 126 rush yards on the Dolphins in the last game. He's not adding much as a receiver but by now getting 100 yards a game from him is plenty good enough. He is back to form for whatever reason that eluded him for the last year and a half.

Trying to get Kenny Britt more involved has only meant that Kendall Wright is used less even though he's tied for the scoring lead with four receiving touchdowns including two in the last three weeks but his yardage rarely tops 30 yards anymore. Britt scored just once back in week six and still has yet to gain more than 67 yards in any game. Nate Washington has also seen less use in recent games because of the success of Johnson rushing and trying to get the ball more to Britt.

Setting aside the surreal happenings in Houston last week, the Jags defense has been bottom five in nearly every category this year and coming off such an emotional downer losing to the Texans could further play into this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 25 17 10 21 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 24 11 29 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN @PHI 0000026012 ***
Philly has served up multiple touchdown passes in every game except one; Mettenberger has multiple scoring strikes in two of his three NFL starts. He's been less reliable on the road (small sample size, of course) so temper expectations, but there's at least reason for optimism here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN @PHI 6003200000 ***
Sankey is distancing himself from Shonn Greene in the Tennessee backfield, which isn't necessarily that impressive. It did, however, yield a touchdown last week and should do the same against a Philly D that's allowed five RB scores in the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN @PHI 006801000 ***
Wright remains the volume guy in Tennessee, and sometimes even turns that volume into a touchdown. With Philly surrendering five 100-yard games and seven WR TDs in just the past four games there's plenty of opportunity for Tennessee's receiving corps to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN @PHI 004700000 ***
Despite being dramatically out-targeted Washington found the end zone last week. Philly has given up plenty to opposing WRs over the past month, so if you're in a pinch Washington could at least be on the fringe of your fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN @PHI 003400000 ***
Philly has allowed five 100-yard outings and seven WR TDs in just the past four games, so if there ever were an opportunity for Hunter to dust off his deep ball skills it would be this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @PHI 003400000 ***
Philly hasn't given up a TE TD since Week 2, and with Walker still dinged up he's a bit of a fantasy risk this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @PHI 3311 ***
Succop has just one game of double-digit points in the past two months, and that came against Jacksonville. Don't expect a reprise here.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
WR Cecil Shorts 3-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50,1
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars near win over the Texans is hard to wrap your head around even a week later. They sold out to stop Arian Foster, kinda did, but gave up historic passing stats. The switch from Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne played out like they finally put gas in their engine that didn't have a lot of water in it. The Jags scored 37 points in Houston. This was the lowest scoring offense in the league. Now it is merely the third worse. This week should be fascinating because everything that was wrong with the Panthers did a 180 degree turnaround last week.

Suddenly there are notable changes with the Jaguars. Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week. Blaine Gabbert left the game with a bad elbow but has been officially benched anyway since the offense finally looked like they knew what they were doing. Henne is hardly new to the scene having played in 36 games for the Dolphins but he had never thrown for more than two scores either. It is a rare breath of fresh air into a very stale offense.

Rashad Jennings was also demoted and Jalen Parmele was given the starting role in Houston against a ferocious rush defense that allowed him to gain 80 yards in 24 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew is tentatively expected back in week 13 but as has been speculated - what exactly is MJD's motivation since his holdout was denied and he got hurt anyway for a 1-9 team?

Justin Blackmon went from first round flop to posting the #3 best game by a rookie wideout in NFL history. In Houston. He caught seven passes for 236 yards and a score. Roughly it was his entire first nine weeks combined. Laurent Robinson had no catches just to ensure this divorce from reality was complete. This is a must watch game now. The Titans just won 37-3 in Miami and the Jaguars just scored 37 points as well while revamping their entire offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 19 28 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 23 31 21 29 30 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 0000024011 ***
Bortles' first taste of the NFL came against Indy earlier this year, when he tossed two TDs in relief of Chad Henne. He's been inconsistent and mostly ineffective since, and it'll take garbage time for him to carve out fantasy value against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @IND 8012100000 ***
Robinson has either scored or topped 100 yards in each of his four games since taking over the regular gig--a job he did not have when these teams met earlier in the season. After watching Jonas Gray gut the Colts for 201 yards and four TDs, you have to think Robinson can at least carve out some fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @IND 006901000 ***
Shorts has had his share of success against Indy, with three TDs in four games--including one in the earlier meeting this year. With Allen Robinson out Shorts should resume his role as the most targeted Jaguar, and in garbage time odds are he can carve out some fantasy value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @IND 006800000 ***
Hurns should see more looks with fellow rookie Allen Robinson out, and he's always a threat for the home run. But Cecil Shorts is the more viable fantasy option in Jacksonville's passing game, and thus far there hasn't usually been enough to feed multiple mouths.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC @IND 002100000 ***
The Colts have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, but Harbor's role in the Jacksonville offense has declined to the point that even with a favorable matchup on the table you'll want to look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @IND 0022 ***
Scobee hasn't hit double-digits yet this year, and the Jags have only managed to crack the 20-point mark twice this season. You have better options at your disposal.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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