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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20 (Line: TEN by 3)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Jalen Parmele

The 4-6 Titans come off their biggest win of the year when they plowed over the Dolphins back in week ten. They come off their bye to face the 1-9 Jaguars who have lost seven straight but nearly pulled off a huge upset in Houston last week. The Titans lost 14-16 during the season opener in Jacksonville last year. They later won 23-17 when they hosted in week 16.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically already over but at least the Jaguars will provide two more chances for a Titan's win. There has been some progress made this year with Chris Johnson finally running as well as 2010 and before. Jake Locker started the year but dislocating his shoulder robbed him of five games and pushed his development back. Somehow this defense held the Dolphins to only three points after surrendering 51 points to the Bears just the previous week. This remains one of the weaker defenses in the league and that will be where the offseason will concentrate on more in the offseason.

Jake Locker came back in week ten but only completed nine of 21 passes for 122 yards in Miami though he threw two touchdowns. Locker threw at least one score in each of his four uninjured starts and scored twice in each of his last two. Aside from the home game against the Lions, Locker been very marginal as a passer so far. His bigger arm helps the passing game in ways that Matt Hasselbeck can no longer do but Locker is only 1-3 as a starter this year.

Chris Johnson made it four games in a row with over 100 total yards and scored four times in just the last four games. He's been back to vintage CJ2K with 141 rush yards on the Bears and 126 rush yards on the Dolphins in the last game. He's not adding much as a receiver but by now getting 100 yards a game from him is plenty good enough. He is back to form for whatever reason that eluded him for the last year and a half.

Trying to get Kenny Britt more involved has only meant that Kendall Wright is used less even though he's tied for the scoring lead with four receiving touchdowns including two in the last three weeks but his yardage rarely tops 30 yards anymore. Britt scored just once back in week six and still has yet to gain more than 67 yards in any game. Nate Washington has also seen less use in recent games because of the success of Johnson rushing and trying to get the ball more to Britt.

Setting aside the surreal happenings in Houston last week, the Jags defense has been bottom five in nearly every category this year and coming off such an emotional downer losing to the Texans could further play into this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 25 17 10 21 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 24 11 29 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN LAR 20000019012 ***
Los Angeles presents a solidly average matchup for Mariota. Tennessee's offense has been mostly ineffective over the second half of 2017, and the Rams pose one of the more daunting pass rushes in football. Look for a better option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dion Lewis, TEN LAR 10021100000 ***
Lewis figures to see the majority of handles with Rex Burkhead on the mend. Buffalo allowed Lewis to average 6.1 yards on his 15 attempts in Week 13. This is one of the best matchups of the season, even if this defense has slightly improved in recent weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN LAR 401000000 ***
For as ferocious as the Rams can be on defense, their running back control has been shoddy most of the season. In the past five games, this is the 12th-best non-PPR opponent. One of every 27 carries, or four in the last five games, has found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN LAR 005800000 ***
Matthews is the only receiver of this crop with playability, and that is stretching the word out to include fringe flex considerations. Los Angeles has given up just three WR touchdowns in the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN LAR 005401000 ***
Walker faces a Rams defense that has given up only 19 catches in the last five games (22nd), yet four of them have scored (2nd). TEs have gone for 46.6 yards, on average (19th). The veteran has a hint of upside but may be a disappointment without scoring.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN LAR 1122 ***
It's as neutral as one will find this week, ranking 14th in both field goal and extra point attempts, 16th in combined kicks, 13th in possible points and 19th in actual fantasy points per contest.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars near win over the Texans is hard to wrap your head around even a week later. They sold out to stop Arian Foster, kinda did, but gave up historic passing stats. The switch from Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne played out like they finally put gas in their engine that didn't have a lot of water in it. The Jags scored 37 points in Houston. This was the lowest scoring offense in the league. Now it is merely the third worse. This week should be fascinating because everything that was wrong with the Panthers did a 180 degree turnaround last week.

Suddenly there are notable changes with the Jaguars. Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week. Blaine Gabbert left the game with a bad elbow but has been officially benched anyway since the offense finally looked like they knew what they were doing. Henne is hardly new to the scene having played in 36 games for the Dolphins but he had never thrown for more than two scores either. It is a rare breath of fresh air into a very stale offense.

Rashad Jennings was also demoted and Jalen Parmele was given the starting role in Houston against a ferocious rush defense that allowed him to gain 80 yards in 24 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew is tentatively expected back in week 13 but as has been speculated - what exactly is MJD's motivation since his holdout was denied and he got hurt anyway for a 1-9 team?

Justin Blackmon went from first round flop to posting the #3 best game by a rookie wideout in NFL history. In Houston. He caught seven passes for 236 yards and a score. Roughly it was his entire first nine weeks combined. Laurent Robinson had no catches just to ensure this divorce from reality was complete. This is a must watch game now. The Titans just won 37-3 in Miami and the Jaguars just scored 37 points as well while revamping their entire offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 19 28 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 23 31 21 29 30 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @SF 20000028020 ***
In his last five games, Bortles has an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio (plus 2 rushing TDs). He has averaged 22.8 fantasy points and ranks as the seventh quarterback of this span. San Fran brings the sixth-worst matchup for yardage per game but the third-softest rating for allowing touchdowns. The 49ers have a lone pick in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @SF 8003300000 **
Fournette is expected back for what is a brutal matchup on paper. The perception may be this defense is a cupcake, but the 49ers are the toughest statistical matchup of the week. No other team has denied a running back touchdown of any kind since Week 8, and the position is averaging only 62 rushing yards (32nd). Through the air, this is also the eighth-worst for receptions and No. 30 in terms of yardage granted. All of that said, the opponents were TEN, HOU, CHI, SEA, NYG, ARI and PHI since the last time a running back gashed them (Ezekiel Elliott in Week 7).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @SF 1003200000 ***
The matchup is not promising by any stretch, and Leonard Fournette returns this week. Yeldon isn't a pragmatic option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @SF 005901000 ***
Marqise Lee (ankle) has a chance to return this week. The Jaguars may not rush him back with the way Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens played the last time out. San Francisco has permitted receivers a touchdown per game since Week 10, though this is the 23rd-best matchup for receptions and only 20th for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC @SF 005700000 ***
Cole has scored in three straight games and stepped up in a huge way with Marqise Lee on the shelf last week. The 49ers present a quality matchup for scoring efficiency (10th) but little else. This is the 23rd-best receptions matchup and No. 20 for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, JAC @SF 002200000 ***
Los Angeles isn't the best opponent for scoring against, with two TE touchdowns over the past five games (28 catches). For yardage (9th) and catches (4th) on a weekly rate, gamers have a decent opportunity for safety-valve points if they can trust Bryce Petty to deliver the rock.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @SF 3322 ***
Since Week 10, kickers have missed three of the 16 total kicks afforded by the 49ers. Two of the misses came on the seven field goal attempts, and this is the seventh-worst matchup of Week 16.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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