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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20 (Line: TEN by 3)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Jalen Parmele

The 4-6 Titans come off their biggest win of the year when they plowed over the Dolphins back in week ten. They come off their bye to face the 1-9 Jaguars who have lost seven straight but nearly pulled off a huge upset in Houston last week. The Titans lost 14-16 during the season opener in Jacksonville last year. They later won 23-17 when they hosted in week 16.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Harry Douglas 5-50,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically already over but at least the Jaguars will provide two more chances for a Titan's win. There has been some progress made this year with Chris Johnson finally running as well as 2010 and before. Jake Locker started the year but dislocating his shoulder robbed him of five games and pushed his development back. Somehow this defense held the Dolphins to only three points after surrendering 51 points to the Bears just the previous week. This remains one of the weaker defenses in the league and that will be where the offseason will concentrate on more in the offseason.

Jake Locker came back in week ten but only completed nine of 21 passes for 122 yards in Miami though he threw two touchdowns. Locker threw at least one score in each of his four uninjured starts and scored twice in each of his last two. Aside from the home game against the Lions, Locker been very marginal as a passer so far. His bigger arm helps the passing game in ways that Matt Hasselbeck can no longer do but Locker is only 1-3 as a starter this year.

Chris Johnson made it four games in a row with over 100 total yards and scored four times in just the last four games. He's been back to vintage CJ2K with 141 rush yards on the Bears and 126 rush yards on the Dolphins in the last game. He's not adding much as a receiver but by now getting 100 yards a game from him is plenty good enough. He is back to form for whatever reason that eluded him for the last year and a half.

Trying to get Kenny Britt more involved has only meant that Kendall Wright is used less even though he's tied for the scoring lead with four receiving touchdowns including two in the last three weeks but his yardage rarely tops 30 yards anymore. Britt scored just once back in week six and still has yet to gain more than 67 yards in any game. Nate Washington has also seen less use in recent games because of the success of Johnson rushing and trying to get the ball more to Britt.

Setting aside the surreal happenings in Houston last week, the Jags defense has been bottom five in nearly every category this year and coming off such an emotional downer losing to the Texans could further play into this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 25 17 10 21 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 24 11 29 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN @IND 0000025012 ***
Following last week's shutout of Ryan Tannehill the Colts have gone back-to-back games of holding QBs without multiple TDs for the first time this season. So it's a favorable matchup for Mettenberger; he's just not well-equipped to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN @IND 3002200000 ***
Mike Mularkey says Sankey will get more playing time this week--this after Sankey took over the Titans ground game last week following a pair of Antonio Andrews turnovers. It's a favorable matchup, but it'll take stones the size of Pluto to trot out Sankey in a Week 17 championship game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Antonio Andrews, TEN @IND 4001100000 *
Indy's run defense rallied last week, holding Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi to a shade over two yards per carry--though Miller did score. Andrews scored on the Colts earlier this year, but he may not get the 13 touches he received in that game. So there's a smidgen of fantasy upside here--which, in Week 17, may be enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN @IND 004700000 ***
DGB went from 113 against the Pats to a goose egg against Houston, so reliability may not be his strong suit. He scored over Vontae Davis in the earlier matchup this year, and the Colts have allowed six 90-plus yard WRs in the past month so there's undeniable upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @IND 008901000 ***
The Colts have been pretty good against tight ends this season, but they surrendered 7-68 to Walker (and 55 yards to other Titans TEs) in the earlier meeting. And Walker has seen double-digit targets in three of the last four games, scoring three TDs and compiling 26-286 in that span. He's Tennessee's go-to pass catcher, and nothing in the Titans' current state of wideouts suggests a deviation from that plan.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @IND 1122 ***
Has not topped ten points
Nine in earlier meeting
No fantasy help

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
WR Justin Blackmon 6-80,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars near win over the Texans is hard to wrap your head around even a week later. They sold out to stop Arian Foster, kinda did, but gave up historic passing stats. The switch from Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne played out like they finally put gas in their engine that didn't have a lot of water in it. The Jags scored 37 points in Houston. This was the lowest scoring offense in the league. Now it is merely the third worse. This week should be fascinating because everything that was wrong with the Panthers did a 180 degree turnaround last week.

Suddenly there are notable changes with the Jaguars. Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week. Blaine Gabbert left the game with a bad elbow but has been officially benched anyway since the offense finally looked like they knew what they were doing. Henne is hardly new to the scene having played in 36 games for the Dolphins but he had never thrown for more than two scores either. It is a rare breath of fresh air into a very stale offense.

Rashad Jennings was also demoted and Jalen Parmele was given the starting role in Houston against a ferocious rush defense that allowed him to gain 80 yards in 24 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew is tentatively expected back in week 13 but as has been speculated - what exactly is MJD's motivation since his holdout was denied and he got hurt anyway for a 1-9 team?

Justin Blackmon went from first round flop to posting the #3 best game by a rookie wideout in NFL history. In Houston. He caught seven passes for 236 yards and a score. Roughly it was his entire first nine weeks combined. Laurent Robinson had no catches just to ensure this divorce from reality was complete. This is a must watch game now. The Titans just won 37-3 in Miami and the Jaguars just scored 37 points as well while revamping their entire offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 19 28 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 23 31 21 29 30 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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