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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20 (Line: TEN by 3)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Jalen Parmele

The 4-6 Titans come off their biggest win of the year when they plowed over the Dolphins back in week ten. They come off their bye to face the 1-9 Jaguars who have lost seven straight but nearly pulled off a huge upset in Houston last week. The Titans lost 14-16 during the season opener in Jacksonville last year. They later won 23-17 when they hosted in week 16.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 20 250,2
RB Jackie Battle 10
RB Shonn Greene 50
WR Nate Washington 5-70,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically already over but at least the Jaguars will provide two more chances for a Titan's win. There has been some progress made this year with Chris Johnson finally running as well as 2010 and before. Jake Locker started the year but dislocating his shoulder robbed him of five games and pushed his development back. Somehow this defense held the Dolphins to only three points after surrendering 51 points to the Bears just the previous week. This remains one of the weaker defenses in the league and that will be where the offseason will concentrate on more in the offseason.

Jake Locker came back in week ten but only completed nine of 21 passes for 122 yards in Miami though he threw two touchdowns. Locker threw at least one score in each of his four uninjured starts and scored twice in each of his last two. Aside from the home game against the Lions, Locker been very marginal as a passer so far. His bigger arm helps the passing game in ways that Matt Hasselbeck can no longer do but Locker is only 1-3 as a starter this year.

Chris Johnson made it four games in a row with over 100 total yards and scored four times in just the last four games. He's been back to vintage CJ2K with 141 rush yards on the Bears and 126 rush yards on the Dolphins in the last game. He's not adding much as a receiver but by now getting 100 yards a game from him is plenty good enough. He is back to form for whatever reason that eluded him for the last year and a half.

Trying to get Kenny Britt more involved has only meant that Kendall Wright is used less even though he's tied for the scoring lead with four receiving touchdowns including two in the last three weeks but his yardage rarely tops 30 yards anymore. Britt scored just once back in week six and still has yet to gain more than 67 yards in any game. Nate Washington has also seen less use in recent games because of the success of Johnson rushing and trying to get the ball more to Britt.

Setting aside the surreal happenings in Houston last week, the Jags defense has been bottom five in nearly every category this year and coming off such an emotional downer losing to the Texans could further play into this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 25 17 10 21 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 24 11 29 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jake Locker, TEN DAL 10000029020 ***
If you accept the premise that Locker is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins, Matt McGloin, and Christian Ponder--the only quarterbacks in the past nine games not to throw multiple touchdowns against the Dallas secondary--then you have to like his chances of building on Week 1's 266 & 2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shonn Greene, TEN DAL 701000000 ***
The Cowboys couldn't slow the 49ers' ground game tag team of Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde; no reason to think the Titans' version of Old Guy/Young Guy shouldn't have similar success. And since Old Guy is getting the vast majority of the carries, he's a solid fantasy bet this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN DAL 005801000 ***
Consider Hunter's 3-63 on a team-high eight targets last week as an appetizer; against a Cowboys defense that's been gutted at cornerback, you may get the breakout game you drafted him for.
Update: After practicing on a limited basis Thursday, Hunter should be good to go for this weekend's tasty fantasy matchup with the Cowboys' depleted secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN DAL 0081000000 ***
Wright remains the volume guy, the Mary Ann to Justin Hunter's Ginger. Hey, nothing wrong with Mary Ann--especially against a wafer-thin secondary like Dallas'.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN DAL 004500000 ***
You could go three deep against a secondary like the Cowboys, but that's better played once the bye weeks hit; until then, Washington's an unreliable fantasy third wheel.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN DAL 005501000 ****
Walker's no Vernon Davis, who scored twice against the Cowboys last week, but he managed a touchdown of his own and is involved enough in this offense to warrant regular fantasy consideration.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN DAL 1144 ***
Succop doesn't have the added bonus of revenge against his former team, but he should still enjoy the benefits of facing a struggling defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
WR Cecil Shorts 3-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50,1
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars near win over the Texans is hard to wrap your head around even a week later. They sold out to stop Arian Foster, kinda did, but gave up historic passing stats. The switch from Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne played out like they finally put gas in their engine that didn't have a lot of water in it. The Jags scored 37 points in Houston. This was the lowest scoring offense in the league. Now it is merely the third worse. This week should be fascinating because everything that was wrong with the Panthers did a 180 degree turnaround last week.

Suddenly there are notable changes with the Jaguars. Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week. Blaine Gabbert left the game with a bad elbow but has been officially benched anyway since the offense finally looked like they knew what they were doing. Henne is hardly new to the scene having played in 36 games for the Dolphins but he had never thrown for more than two scores either. It is a rare breath of fresh air into a very stale offense.

Rashad Jennings was also demoted and Jalen Parmele was given the starting role in Houston against a ferocious rush defense that allowed him to gain 80 yards in 24 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew is tentatively expected back in week 13 but as has been speculated - what exactly is MJD's motivation since his holdout was denied and he got hurt anyway for a 1-9 team?

Justin Blackmon went from first round flop to posting the #3 best game by a rookie wideout in NFL history. In Houston. He caught seven passes for 236 yards and a score. Roughly it was his entire first nine weeks combined. Laurent Robinson had no catches just to ensure this divorce from reality was complete. This is a must watch game now. The Titans just won 37-3 in Miami and the Jaguars just scored 37 points as well while revamping their entire offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 19 28 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 23 31 21 29 30 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC @WAS 0000023011 ***
Most of Henne's Week 1 productivity came early on two long TDs; after that it was the same old Henne fantasy owners have come to know and ignore. Washington's D was adequate against Ryan Fitzpatrick and... could this matchup get any more meh? Nothing to reach for here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC @WAS 6002100000 ***
Assuming Gerhart goes on his sore ankle he'll face a Washington D that allowed Arian Foster to rush for 103 yards on 27 carries. Doubtful Gerhart sees that workload, healthy or no, so set your sights lower.
Update: Gerhart was back at practice later in the week and expects to play Sunday despite his tender ankle. The injury may reduce Gerhart's volume of touches, however, and since he's pretty much a volume guy his fantasy value takes a nick as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @WAS 006801000 ***
Lee was actually targeted more and caught more balls than Hurns, he just didn't haul in two home runs. He's battling some injury issues of his own, but if healthy he projects to be the go-to guy in this offense--and, based on Hurns' disappearing act after halftime, probably the safer fantasy bet of the two.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @WAS 004700000 ***
Two blown coverages by the Eagles and suddenly a star is born. Hurns isn't all flash in the pan, but it's notable that a) he was shut out in the second half and b) it was the Eagles secondary. The Redskins let DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson tag-team them for 182 yards and a TD, and if Cecil Shorts remains out (likely) Hurns and Marqise Lee could push that number. So we're saying Frisman Jackson gets at least a one-week reprise from being relegated too quickly to the "one-hit wonder" bin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @WAS 002200000 ***
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @WAS 004300000 ***
"Wake me when Marcedes Lewis is fantasy relevant again." -- Rip Van Winkle
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @WAS 2211 ***
Scobee got three field goal attempts in Week 1; that's good! Scobee missed two of them; that's not so good. Here's hoping you have access to better fantasy kicking options this week.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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