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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: TEN 27, JAC 20 (Line: TEN by 3)

Players to Watch: Jake Locker, Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Jalen Parmele

The 4-6 Titans come off their biggest win of the year when they plowed over the Dolphins back in week ten. They come off their bye to face the 1-9 Jaguars who have lost seven straight but nearly pulled off a huge upset in Houston last week. The Titans lost 14-16 during the season opener in Jacksonville last year. They later won 23-17 when they hosted in week 16.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC -----
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU -----
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 220,1
RB DeMarco Murray
WR Eric Decker 7-70,2
WR Harry Douglas 5-50,1
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The season is realistically already over but at least the Jaguars will provide two more chances for a Titan's win. There has been some progress made this year with Chris Johnson finally running as well as 2010 and before. Jake Locker started the year but dislocating his shoulder robbed him of five games and pushed his development back. Somehow this defense held the Dolphins to only three points after surrendering 51 points to the Bears just the previous week. This remains one of the weaker defenses in the league and that will be where the offseason will concentrate on more in the offseason.

Jake Locker came back in week ten but only completed nine of 21 passes for 122 yards in Miami though he threw two touchdowns. Locker threw at least one score in each of his four uninjured starts and scored twice in each of his last two. Aside from the home game against the Lions, Locker been very marginal as a passer so far. His bigger arm helps the passing game in ways that Matt Hasselbeck can no longer do but Locker is only 1-3 as a starter this year.

Chris Johnson made it four games in a row with over 100 total yards and scored four times in just the last four games. He's been back to vintage CJ2K with 141 rush yards on the Bears and 126 rush yards on the Dolphins in the last game. He's not adding much as a receiver but by now getting 100 yards a game from him is plenty good enough. He is back to form for whatever reason that eluded him for the last year and a half.

Trying to get Kenny Britt more involved has only meant that Kendall Wright is used less even though he's tied for the scoring lead with four receiving touchdowns including two in the last three weeks but his yardage rarely tops 30 yards anymore. Britt scored just once back in week six and still has yet to gain more than 67 yards in any game. Nate Washington has also seen less use in recent games because of the success of Johnson rushing and trying to get the ball more to Britt.

Setting aside the surreal happenings in Houston last week, the Jags defense has been bottom five in nearly every category this year and coming off such an emotional downer losing to the Texans could further play into this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 25 17 10 21 18
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 24 11 29 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN @CLE 10000023021 ***
Mariota's mobility was limited last week and he still posted a quality fantasy effort. The Browns have given up only 236.2 yards per game (18th) but touchdowns with the second-easiest frequency (one per 8.9 completions). This is the fifth-best matchup rating for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN @CLE 7011100000 ***
Power backs haven't done so well against the Browns. Only two of the last 126 carries have scored, and the 78 yards per contest against this group rates 22nd. Short of another huge run, Henry may slide back into the realm of fantasy mediocrity.

Update: Henry should see more work, even if DeMarco Murray plays. Murray is a game-time decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN @CLE 3001100000 *
The matchup suits Murray's versatility nicely. Don't expect a monster game, because Cleveland is at least respectable against the position, allowing a combined 128.4 yards per game (22nd). One of every 63 rushing attempts in the past five games has made its way into the end zone.

Update: A questionable status with hamstring, Murray sat two days before being limited Friday. This one is iffy, at best, and he's a true game-day call.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN @CLE 004501000 **
While allowing the third-fewest receptions and sixth-lowest yardage figures in per-game data, this is the second-weakest defense against which to score a TD. Last season, Matthews posted a 3-70-1 line in Week 6 vs. Cleveland.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN @CLE 004500000 ***
Decker should signs of life in Week 6 and has a reasonable matchup this time out. Cleveland has given up only 8.6 catches per game (3rd fewest) while surrendering a TD every 6.1 grabs (2nd highest). Decker is an intriguing boom-or-bust start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN @CLE 002300000 ***
The rookie is showing a knack for making splash plays, which inherently makes him a risky fantasy choice. The Browns only fuel the temptation, since this is the second-easiest team to score a TD on and also No. 2 in fantasy points per play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN @CLE 003201000 **
Update: The rookie has a great matchup and appears to be in line for a start with Delanie Walker missing Friday's practice with a calf injury.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @CLE 002200000 *
In 2016, against Cleveland, he caught one pass for 21 yards. The Browns have been pounded by the position, giving up the highest average of receptions per game (7.4) and the third-most yardage (75.4). PPR TEs rate third and non-PPR go fourth against this group.

Update: Walker is questionable and didn't practice Friday after being limited Thursday. Not good. Not good at all. Look for Jonnu Smith if you need a one-week replacement.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @CLE 3333 ***
Succop is a lock from inside of 50 and draws a Browns team that has given up a mess of extra points (15-for-16) but only five three-pointers.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN -----
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
RB Chris Ivory 30
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars near win over the Texans is hard to wrap your head around even a week later. They sold out to stop Arian Foster, kinda did, but gave up historic passing stats. The switch from Blaine Gabbert to Chad Henne played out like they finally put gas in their engine that didn't have a lot of water in it. The Jags scored 37 points in Houston. This was the lowest scoring offense in the league. Now it is merely the third worse. This week should be fascinating because everything that was wrong with the Panthers did a 180 degree turnaround last week.

Suddenly there are notable changes with the Jaguars. Chad Henne passed for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week. Blaine Gabbert left the game with a bad elbow but has been officially benched anyway since the offense finally looked like they knew what they were doing. Henne is hardly new to the scene having played in 36 games for the Dolphins but he had never thrown for more than two scores either. It is a rare breath of fresh air into a very stale offense.

Rashad Jennings was also demoted and Jalen Parmele was given the starting role in Houston against a ferocious rush defense that allowed him to gain 80 yards in 24 carries. Maurice Jones-Drew is tentatively expected back in week 13 but as has been speculated - what exactly is MJD's motivation since his holdout was denied and he got hurt anyway for a 1-9 team?

Justin Blackmon went from first round flop to posting the #3 best game by a rookie wideout in NFL history. In Houston. He caught seven passes for 236 yards and a score. Roughly it was his entire first nine weeks combined. Laurent Robinson had no catches just to ensure this divorce from reality was complete. This is a must watch game now. The Titans just won 37-3 in Miami and the Jaguars just scored 37 points as well while revamping their entire offense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 29 19 28 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 23 31 21 29 30 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 10100018011 **
Bortles takes on fantasy's second-easiest matchup to exploit, so there is at least a little hope. In 2016, he averaged nearly 25 points per game in two meetings. You could do worst in trying to replace Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford for one week, but starting Bortles is a risk-reward decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC @IND 6004201000 *
Ivory has quietly become a PPR asset and faces an Indy defense rated as the sixth-worst at stopping backs in this scoring system. Only seven teams have yielded more aerial yards to running backs per game, and two teams have given up TDs with greater ease.

Update: Ivory is in line for more touches with Leonard Fournette listed as a DNP for three straight days and being questionable for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @IND 5001100000 *
Fantasy's most consistent scorer has an ideal matchup with divisional-rival Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed four rushing TDs in the last five games, translating to one every 28.5 carries. This is the fifth-highest frequency. The number improves to a score every 23.3 touches when the two receiving scores are factored, and backs have managed 154.2 offensive yards.

Update: Fournette is questionable, and all signs point to him being a game-time call after not practicing all week. He may lose some touches to Chris Ivory if he dresses.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @IND 003400000 ***
In one game versus the Colts last season, Hurns caught two balls for 47 yards and a touchdown. This defense has given up catches (12th most) and yards (4th) but only the sixth-lowest touchdown frequency to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @IND 004400000 ***
Indy hasn't cared too much about slowing wide receivers from catching passes or even racking up some yardage, but the Colts have clamped down around the stripe. This defense has given up only three TDs over the past 61 receptions, which is the sixth-toughest ratio. Lee was rather quiet in two games against the Colts last season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @IND 3333 ***
Lambo is a fringe consideration but should be left on the wire with just two teams on the bye.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

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