FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

Prediction: WAS 17, DAL 27 (Line: DAL by 3)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Dez Bryant

This is the afternoon game on Thanksgiving. The 4-6 Redskins broke their three game losing streak by hosting the now wingless Eagles but are only 2-3 on the road. The Cowboys draw to .500 with a 5-5 record but are only 2-2 at home and just barely beat the Browns. This is always one of those "throw out the records" kind of games but there is no escaping that the Cowboys have the better defense and is at home on a very short week.

The Cowboys swept the Redskins last year, winning 18-16 at home and later 27-24 in Washington.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL -----
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR DeSean Jackson 4-60
TE Vernon Davis 5-60,1

Pregame Notes: Nice win over the Eagles made the world right for one week but doesn't erase the struggles the Redskins have had scoring points and playing defense. They have never allowed fewer than 22 points in a road game and average giving up 28 points per road opponent. This week should show whether the Philly win was about an improved Redskins or just the Eagles in a nosedive.

Robert Griffin III gets to face one of the best defenses so far this year and while he comes off his first ever four touchdown game, he still passed for just 200 yards and only had eight passing scores over the first nine games. His role as a runner remains big in most games though the only time he faced top defenses this year was when he was held under ten rushing yards against the Falcons and Steelers when he also passed for less than 200 yards in those games. This is a big week for both teams but so far RG3 has been showing up mostly against weak defenses.

Alfred Morris hasn't scored since week six and other than the Giants game when he ran for 120 yards, he's been held to under 80 rush yards for the last six weeks and has no role as a receiver. Last week Griffin threw a touchdown to Darrel Young, another running back who now has two scores on the year with only 14 total touches. This offense may be all about Morris as the runner but he's just not getting much done thanks to struggles elsewhere on the team.

Logan Paulsen comes off his first score of the year but it was on his only catch in the Panthers game. He'd been good for four or five receptions in the previous three weeks but still has no reliable fantasy value.

Throwing for four touchdowns last week was nice and all but there still wasn't any one with more than 61 receiving yards and that was on Santana Moss' only catch, Aldrick Robinson also scored - on his only catch. This offense is still mostly about Griffin with moderate passing stats taking off on a run and even then he's scored in just one of the last six games as a runner.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 23 20 20 13 8
Preventing Fantasy Points DAL 5 11 7 10 22 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS CLE 0000030021 ***
Cousins is off to an up-and-down start, but home contest (where he usually kills it) versus the seventh softest defense of his position is a good way to capitalize on last week's promising effort.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Jones, WAS CLE 6011100000 ***
Jones is a desperation play, but this week is a decent time to be needy. Cleveland has provided backs an average of 22.8 fantasy points in PPR scoring, allowing 385 offensive yards and three total touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS CLE 2003200000 ***
Thompson shouldn't be in any fantasy lineup, even with a favorable matchup like this one ... he doesn't touch the ball enough to matter.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS CLE 005801000 ***
D-Jax may not be 100 percent, but that probably won't matter against Cleveland. The Browns have granted six touchdowns to receivers, the second most in the league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS CLE 005500000 ***
Crowder broke off a long touchdown but still has caught at least four balls in each game. Cleveland provides a matchup that only three teams can outdo. Crowder is a flex in PPR play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS CLE 004400000 ***
Garcon is a viable PPR dollar-saver against the fourth lamest matchup for this position. That said, Cleveland hasn't given up a lot of receptions (38) but the second most touchdowns (6) instead.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS CLE 007901000 ***
Reed never leaves traditional fantasy lineups, so the rest of this is just food for thought: Cleveland presents the eighth easiest matchup, but no tight end has scored on 22 aggregate catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS CLE 1133 ***
The Browns have allowed eight extra points and six of seven field goal kicks to go through the uprights. Washington's passing game shouldn't have much trouble here, which likely means more one-pointers than treys for Hopkins.

Dallas Cowboys
Homefield: Cowboys Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYG 24-17 10 @PHI 38-23
2 @SEA 7-27 11 CLE 23-20
3 TB 16-10 12 WAS -----
4 CHI 18-34 13 PHI -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @CIN -----
6 @BAL 29-31 15 PIT -----
7 @CAR 19-14 16 NO -----
8 NYG 24-29 17 @WAS -----
9 @ATL 13-19 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
DAL vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo 330,3
QB Mark Sanchez 240,1
RB Lance Dunbar 30
RB Darren McFadden
RB Alfred Morris 60 1-10
WR Dez Bryant 8-120,1
TE Jason Witten 8-80,1
PK Dan Bailey 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cowboys squeaked past the Browns last week and needed overtime to get there. It was a week filled with underdogs getting a lead and then losing at the end of their game and it had the markings of a trap game if you can somehow ignore the fact the Cowboys have zero margin for error anymore. Dallas gets the benefit of a home game in a very short week and then takes off for ten days before hosting the now terrible Eagles. This three game home stretch was supposed to be the easiest time of the year but as of last week it's just a continuing struggle.

Tony Romo has been plenty good with yardage every week but his scoring is where he falls short. He's scored in all but one game this year but six other times ended with just one passing touchdown. In four home games, he's never been worse than 283 passing yards and yet only threw three touchdowns total over those games. Never more than one. He's faced some good defenses along the way. He's faced some less than stellar ones. Same thing - high yardage and one score. Maybe two. Never more than two since the season opener.

Felix Jones hurt his knee last week but remained in the Browns game and ended with 43 yards on 14 carries and one touchdown. Jones totaled 90+ yards in the previous two games before slowing down last week with the rest of the Dallas squad. DeMarco Murray is still questionable to play and was ruled out early last week. Barring great news from practice, it appears likely that he'll miss yet another week with a foot that just won't heal. Lance Dunbar needed a minor surgery on his knee after the Browns game and may not play on Thursday. Philip Tanner would take his place if needed. Jones is shaping up to be a game time decision because of his knees and missed practices Monday and Tuesday.

Jason Witten continues to be the most consistent player in the offense with another seven catches last week which has been the least he does for the last month. Witten only scored once all year but has been huge in reception point leagues. He is on a pace to end with well over 100 catches this year.

Kevin Ogletree sustained a head injury last week but says he passed a concussion test. That makes him questionable this week against what should be a pretty bad secondary. There might not be much left over for him anyway. It is evident that the Cowboys are under a directive to get the ball to Dez Bryant who comes off a career best yardage game. Bryant was targeted 15 times for 12 receptions and 145 yards with one score last week. Miles Austin was thrown to 12 times for six receptions and 58 yards but the Cowboys are doing what they can to make Bryant a star.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 14 21 7 5 14 23
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 12 28 32 21 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Dak Prescott, DAL @SF 20100026010 ***
Hey, look at that! Prescott finally threw a touchdown pass. He is clearly becoming more comfortable with the pacing of the game and goes through his progressions surprisingly well. It doesn't hurt that he has some wheels, when needed. The Cowboys have to travel this week, and San Fran offers a midrange matchup stats-wise by permitting 22.8 points per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL @SF 10011100000 ***
Elliott might touch the ball 35 times this week. The 'Boys may be without Dez Bryant (knee) and are thin at wide receiver. The 49ers represent a midrange matchup for fantasy backs by allowing 21 points per game in PPR scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cole Beasley, DAL @SF 007700000 ***
Beasley is a wonderful PPR weapon but will see stronger coverage if Dez Bryant cannot play. Watch how Bryant's week unfolds. Beasley is a WR3 or flex against San Francisco's pass defense (35-471-4).

Update: Bryant is unlikely to go, which amplifies Beasley's defensive attention and offensive involvement. The field becomes that much smaller without Dez, so Beasley's increased role may be offset. He's a fringe play in PPR only.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrance Williams, DAL @SF 005500000 ***
Williams doesn't play a large enough role in the passing game, with or without Dez, to be played as anything better than a wild flex. San Fran has given up four TDs on 35 catches, but is technically a poor matchup overall.

Update: Bryant is not expected to go, which gives Williams the slightest of boosts. He's a Hail Mary fantasy play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jason Witten, DAL @SF 006600000 ***
Dez Bryant has a hairline fracture in his knee and is listed as day-to-day. It is hard to imagine he plays, but even if he goes, Witten will have to pick up the slack. San Francisco has allowed the fifth most points to tight ends thus far.

Update: Witten may see even more targets with Dez not expected to play. Start the veteran tight end with confidence.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Bailey, DAL @SF 1133 ***
No team has been more generous to kickers than the Niners. Bailey benefits from a rookie quarterback being on the road.

WEEK 12
2012
HOU at DET (THU) *BAL at SD *MIN at CHI *SF at NO
NE at NYJ (THU) BUF at IND *OAK at CIN *STL at ARI
WAS at DAL (THU) DEN at KC PIT at CLE TEN at JAC
*UPDATED *ATL at TB GB at NYG SEA at MIA *CAR at PHI (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t