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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Lindley 210
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
RB Michael Bush 30,1 3-20
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE John Carlson 1-10
TE Rob Housler 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Stanton, ARI @ATL 0000025010 ***
Yes, on paper it's a favorable matchup for Stanton. However, he has yet to throw a road TD this year and he hasn't topped 167 yards away from Arizona. He may not have Larry Fitzgerald at his disposal, either; it all adds up to Stanton being a lousy fantasy option this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI @ATL 9015400000 ****
No team has allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than the Falcons, including a league-high 15 RB TDs and the fourth-most receiving yards to backs. So even if Ellington loses a goal line touch or two he should carve out plenty of yardage--both on the ground and in the air--and be one of the better fantasy RB options on the board.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI @ATL 005701000 ***
You would think with Fitz likely out again this week that Floyd moves up to WR1 status--last week's blanking at the hands of the Seahawks notwithstanding. It's an incredibly favorable matchup against a secondary that's allowed four straight 100-yard games to WR1s, so if you can bring yourself to trust the inconsistent Floyd he has monster fantasy upside this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @ATL 005700000 ***
Brown could leapfrog the inconsistent Michael Floyd to capture some of the stats the Falcons have made available to WR1s over the past month. Even if he's running as wingman this week he's a big-play threat who could make some fantasy noise in a reasonably favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, ARI @ATL 003300000 ***
sup3rm4n
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @ATL 00000000 ***
Update: Fitz practiced on a limited basis Friday and is optimistically listed as questionable; however, he is not expected to play so play accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE John Carlson, ARI @ATL 003300000 ****
Carlson has seen an uptick in targets, but the jump to four last week hasn't yielded much in the way of fantasy results. Get your fantasy help elsewhere.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI @ATL 4322 ****
Catanzaro hasn't had multiple field goals in a game since Week 6, so the switch from Carson Palmer to Drew Stanton isn't necessarily leaving Arizona with more field goal opportunities. This isn't an overtly favorable matchup, so settle for the usual from Chandler--and the usual hasn't been particularly good.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB Chris Johnson 80,1 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-90,1
WR Percy Harvin
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ MIA 20000018011 ***
Smith has been borderline fantasy relevant a couple times this season, but barely. It usually takes rushing stats for Smith to have fantasy value, and the Dolphins haven't given up much in that department.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ MIA 5002100000 ***
Ivory is no longer the Jets' clear-cut go-to back; he essentially split carries with Chris Johnson last week and doesn't fit the mold of the few backs who have found success against Miami--namely, speed guys.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ MIA 3002100000 ***
Johnson has a couple solid outings against the Dolphins on his resume, though they came two and four years ago as a Texan. Given that the Dolphins just let CJ Anderson run all over them, there's a chance the Jets find a way to do the same with this CJ and/or Chris Ivory. Not a good chance, mind you, but a chance nonetheless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ MIA 005501000 **
The Dolphins have given up some big WR outings; however there's a big difference between the likes of Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas catching passes from Matthew Stafford and Peyton Manning... and Decker trying to catch errant tosses from Geno Smith. Subdue your expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ MIA 004400000 ***
The advantage Harvin has is that there are ways to get him the ball that don't involve Geno Smith's accuracy. Whether the Jets go out of their way to do that here remains to be seen.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ MIA 002300000 ***
There's barely enough passing game productivity to feed one, maybe two wide receivers in New York. Kerley is running a distant third to Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, so there's no reason to think he'll be a fantasy factor here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ MIA 1111 ***
Folk has a total of 20 points over the past for games, kicking for an offense that hasn't topped 25 all year. Neither of those bode well for his fantasy prospects this week.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t