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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE John Carlson 1-10
TE Rob Housler 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB Chris Johnson 80,1 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-90,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ DET 20000023012 ***
No compelling reason to believe Geno goes where Eli, Cam and Discount Double-Check couldn't and produced a fantasy helper against the Lions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ DET 4013200000 ***
As the bigger back in the Jets' tandem Ivory has a shot at a TD against a Detroit defense that allowed Rashad Jennings and Jonathan Stewart to score against them. However, he's splitting touches with Chris Johnson with puts a cap on his yardage upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ DET 400000000 ***
Johnson won't find much room against a stout Lions run defense. And while you'd think he could capitalize on Detroit's small susceptibility to pass-catching backs, last week it was Chris Ivory handling pass-catching duties as well. You may miss out on the home run, but you'll also miss out on the three or four strikeouts as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ DET 005600000 ***
If Eric Decker can't go Kerley bumps over to first chair, but it's still too tough a match-up to warrant a fantasy start for any Jets wideout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ DET 004500000 ***
Decker has yet to return to practice after exiting the Jets' Week 3 loss prematurely due to aggravation of his hamstring injury. As if you needed reason to avoid any wideout against a Detroit secondary that's surrendered just one WR TD and zero games of 60 yards or more.
Update: Decker returned to practice Friday on a limited basis, but his upside in this matchup doesn't outweigh the risk of re-injury or being ruled out prior to kickoff.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Salas, NYJ DET 003300000 ***
Salas saw extra snaps last week due to Eric Decker's injury. Best case for Salas: Decker remains sidelined and Salas runs as Jeremy Kerley's wingman against a stout Lions pass D. Worst case: Salas goes back to tertiary target. Neither bolsters his fantasy prospects.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ DET 002301000 **
Simply put, Detroit can't stop opposing tight ends. Amaro is still battling Jeff Cumberland for looks, but he's the better pass-catcher of the duo and thus poised to be a sneaky fantasy play here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ DET 2222 ****
Folk hasn't missed yet this season and is averaging a robust nine points per game. The Lions have clamped down on kickers at home... but this one's in the Empire State. Advantage: Folk.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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