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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE John Carlson 1-10
TE Rob Housler 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI @DAL 0000027020 ***
Palmer has delivered multiple TD tosses and at least 250 yards in every game thus far. Dallas is the toughest he's faced to date, but it's still tough to see him failing to make his appointed rounds.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI @DAL 6006300000 ***
Not that Ellington can't score, but it's a good thing he does enough yardage wise that he doesn't usually need to to be a fantasy factor. The Cowboys have surrendered just four RB TDs all year but do give up more than 120 combo yards to opposing backs. Give Ellington a big dollop of the latter, don't sweat the former, and call it a day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @DAL 003601000 ***
Brown's another speed guy who could give the Cowboys fits, a la Odell Beckham and DeSean Jackson the past two weeks. He outgunned Michael Floyd last week, but Floyd is typically more targeted so it's a bit trickier to bank on Brown this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI @DAL 004501000 **
Lately it's been speed guys killing the Cowboys: Odell Beckham Jr. scored twice on them and DeSean Jackson went for 136 yards last week. Floyd took a back seat to both Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown last week, and it's a little tough to trust him after posting a goose egg. But it's tough to see him posting another dog here--he has yet to go more than one week without scoring or topping 100 yards--so take that leap of faith this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @DAL 005600000 ***
Yes, Carson Palmer knows where to find Fitz. He just doesn't do it consistently, or much at all on the road. If you're parsing Arizona wideouts this week the speed guys have an edge, which puts Fitz at the low end of the pecking order. Plan accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE John Carlson, ARI @DAL 002200000 *****
Carlson had his hands on a ball in the end zone; had he hung on it would have maybe brought the total of fantasy-relevant games by Cardinals tight ends since the Jackie Smith era to one. Look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI @DAL 2222 ***
After a fast start Catanzaro has had back-to-back outings with just one field goal, and he's facing a Dallas team that hasn't been overly friendly to kickers this season. However, Chandler hasn't dipped below the six-point mark this season so at least his baseline isn't a killer.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB Chris Johnson 80,1 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-90,1
WR Percy Harvin
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, NYJ @KC 40000015011 ***
Vick hasn't had a fantasy-relevant outing since the first month of last season, and a date with a Chiefs defense that's given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position isn't likely to help him turn back the clock.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @KC 5002100000 ***
While it's tough to project a touchdown for Beast East against a KC defense that hasn't allowed an RB TD all year, it's worth noting that backs with at least a dozen carries against KC have produced at a 5.5 yards per carry clip. Ivory should get that workload, maybe even turning it into a fantasy helper.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Percy Harvin, NYJ @KC 3005500000 ***
There's always upside with Percy, but this season it hasn't translated into much. The Jets are still trying to figure out ways to use Harvin, but be it as a runner or receiver it's tough to bank on fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @KC 006500000 ***
It's far from a favorable matchup, but if any Jet receiver is to carve out fantasy value it will be the frequently targeted Decker.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @KC 006601000 ****
Great googly-moogly, the Jets have allowed seven TE TDs already this year. So long as Jeff Cumberland doesn't swipe any more looks from Amaro he's an intriguing play here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @KC 2211 ****
Three of the past four games Folk has scored exactly five points. That's not going to feed the bulldogs, so best look for your fantasy kicker elsewhere.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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