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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: ARI 10, NYJ 24 (Line: NYJ by 4.5)

Players Updated: Andre Roberts, Beanie Wells

Players to Watch: Ryan Lindley, Bilal Powell

The 4-7 Cardinals continue their impressive plunge with a seven game losing streak and a 1-4 road mark. The 4-7 Jets have won a few times in the last seven games and are at home. The Jets may be like NFL-lite this year but it's harder to explain why the Cardinals won any games this year than it is how they lost seven in a row..

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ -----
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,2
WR Larry Fitzgerald 3-40
TE John Carlson 1-10
TE Rob Housler 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals continue their losing streak that has an excellent chance of extending into next year. Likely the home stand against the Lions will be their best chance but even that won't likely see them favored. This season started out with much the same players and all the same coaches and schemes. But nothing has worked and problems at quarterback continue to plague any chance of a turnaround.

Ryan Lindley will continue to start until such time that Kevin Kolb makes it back since John Skelton is no longer considered an option. But in a home game against the Rams, Lindley threw for 312 yards and no scores with four interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. Teams are plotting to take away Larry Fitzgerald and then see what happens.

What happens is that Fitzgerald now has four catches for 42 yards from the last two games combined, And the Cardinals lose so there is no reason to expect anything different from future opponents. At least Andre Roberts caught nine passes for 92 yards and even second-year tight end Robert Housler had a career best eight receptions for 82 yards. William Powell plays third downs and ended with six catches for 63 yards. Defenses are just effectively saying you do not get Fitzgerald - what are you going to do?

Beanie Wells returned after missing all the games since week three and even posted two rushing touchdowns and yet only 48 yards on 17 carries and that includes the ten-yard run for one score. He is apparently back to health since he is rarely getting two yards past the line of scrimmage. LaRod Stephens-Howling only took one carry in the game. The only real notable was Powell's six catches from Lindley since he only had seven catches in all previous games combined.

No reason to expect a turn-around this week. The Jets held four of their visitors to either one or no passing scores and most remain well under 200 passing yards there. The rushing defense is weaker but not as weak as the rushing offense of the Cardinals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI @DEN 0000025020 **
Palmer is expected--hoped?--to return from the nerve issue that's plaguing his throwing shoulder. If he's in the lineup you have to assume he'll be healthy enough to shoot it out with Peyton Manning--and that means good fantasy news is in store.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Stepfan Taylor, ARI @DEN 1003201000 **
Taylor hasn't seen enough touches yet to be banked on for a fantasy contribution, even though he's expected to step into the short-yardage role vacated by Jonathan Dwyer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI @DEN 5003200000 ***
With a week off to rest his bum foot, no reason to think you won't get maximum Ellington against Denver. Multipurpose backs have found success against the Broncos: the last two feature backs they've faced have topped 100 combo yards and scored twice, while Indy's two-headed backfield accounted for 136 yards from scrimmage. No reason to think a healthier Ellington can't participate in these reindeer games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @DEN 002501000 ***
The Broncos haven't seen much in the way of receiving corps, and when they did it was Indy's WR3 Hakeem Nicks who found the end zone despite his mates being more targeted. Brown is filling a similar role in Arizona and is at least worthy of fringe fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @DEN 007600000 ****
Don't write Fitz off just yet; while he's clearly moving into the wingman role opposite explosive Michael Floyd, he's still a threat and an every-week starter--especially in a favorable matchup in what is likely to turn into a shootout.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Floyd, ARI @DEN 003400000 ***
Floyd sandwiched a one-catch game with a couple of 100-yard efforts, and while he's still looking for his first TD of the season he's heavily targeted and a consistent enough yardage producer to offset any lack of scores.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE John Carlson, ARI @DEN 003400000 ***
As soon as an Arizona tight end records a 50-yard game we'll start paying fantasy attention. Hasn't happened yet, isn't likely to happen this week either.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, ARI @DEN 1122 ***
Gotta love Catanzaro, who has multiple field goals in every game and has yet to miss as a pro. In a game likely to produce points, he remains a more than viable fantasy option.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI -----
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ivory 30
RB Chris Johnson 80,1 2-10
RB Bilal Powell 40,1 2-10
WR Eric Decker 7-90,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets one good game against the Rams only lasted one week. On the last game on Thanksgiving, the country tried to stay away while watching the Jets getting spanked by the Patriots. HC Rex Ryan made his obligatory claim of "Mark Sanchez is our starting quarterback and gives us our best chance to win." At 4-7 on the year, their best chance does not translate into "a good chance".

When the only highlight they show after the game was Sanchez running into a lineman's butt, falling down and losing a fumble, you know the game did not go well.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards on the visiting Patriots but only one touchdown with an interception and lost fumble. Since the season opener, Sanchez has only scored nine touchdowns over ten games and only once did he score as many as two touchdowns. Sanchez is no better than the opposing secondary with yardage and throws for one touchdown per game regardless. Tim Tebow is out with fractured ribs but hasn't been a factor in any game anyway.

Ironically, Shonn Greene has been rushing pretty well in recent weeks and yet now has to share the work with Bilal Powell. Greene is only getting 15 to 18 carries per week for around 60-70 yards and has not scored since week seven. Powell gets 10 to 12 runs per game and scored three times in the last two weeks. He also added two receptions per week. That makes both runners marginal fantasy plays and once Powell doesn't score his fantasy worth is almost nil.

Jeremy Kerley is typically the lead receiver with around five catches or more every game. He comes off a seven catch, 86-yard effort against the Patriots and exceeded 70 yards four times this year. But he has not scored since week three and usually ends up under 60 yards per game. Dustin Keller is the only other receiver of any note and comes off his scored touchdown of the year when he collected five receptions for 64 yards last Thursday. This remains one he the least productive passing offenses in the NFL and there are no fantasy players here that can be considered a lock for anything beyond a mediocre showing.

The Cardinals are bringing a decent defense but no offense. That should end up with moderate points by the Jets and a much needed win but not like big points. I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @SD 20100020011 ***
Geno is still looking for his first multiple touchdown game of the season... but it's tough to see while he's looking over his shoulder waiting for Michael Vick to replace him. San Diego isn't the likely venue for Smith to rebound.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @SD 500000000 ***
Not only has Ivory taken a bite out of Chris Johnson's carries, he's also seeing work in the passing game. That's key because the Bolts don't give up much on the ground; however, no team has allowed more RB receptions, receiving yards or receiving TDs. With more targets than CJ?K the past three games, Ivory should be able to salvage fantasy value with his pass-catching.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @SD 4002100000 ***
Johnson's still the home run hitter, only now he's losing at-bats to Chris Ivory. Worse, the place where he could really do some open-field damage--the passing game--is becoming Ivory's as well. Tough to look to CJ?K for any sort of fantasy help short of crossing your fingers and hoping for the homer.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @SD 004601000 ***
No receiver has scored or topped 70 yards against the Chargers since Week 1... but let's be honest, the Seahawks, Bills, and Jaguars hardly sport elite pass-catching talent. Decker made it through last week's game without aggravating his troublesome hamstring, even scoring in the process, and is the best option for any sort of passing game production in San Diego.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @SD 003200000 ***
On the heels of 81 yards and a touchdown, Kerley contributed just one catch for three yards last week. With Eric Decker healthy and the Bolts far from a fantasy-friendly matchup, don't expect much assistance from Kerley this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @SD 006600000 ***
With back-to-back 50-plus yard games, Amaro is becoming a bigger part of the Jets' offense. The Chargers have yet to allow a TE TD so it's not a great matchup, but his role is pushing him closer and closer to fantasy relevancy--just not this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @SD 3311 ***
The Chargers have yet to allow a double-digit scoring effort to an opposing kicker, and a Geno Smith led offense on the road is unlikely to break that maiden.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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