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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: CAR 24, KC 13 (LINE: CAR by 3)

Players to Watch: Cam Newton

The 3-8 Panthers come off a rare road win in Philly looking to string together two victories. The 1-10 Chiefs have not scored a touchdown in two weeks and have lost eight straight. The Chiefs are playing opponents nearly even not because they are that good, but because everyone knows they are going to win anyway so why try so hard? Playing the Chiefs is like a partial bye week.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN 14-36
2 NO 35-27 11 TB 21-27
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI 30-22
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA 12-16 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL 14-19 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI 22-23 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS 21-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 250,2
RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Michael Tolbert 30 2-10
RB DeAngelo Williams 50 4-30
WR Brandon LaFell 4-60
WR Steve Smith 4-70,1
TE Greg Olsen 5-50,1
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to imagine but the Panthers may actually win not only two consecutive games, but two consecutive road games. Right now the Eagles and Chiefs both are waving the white flag and the Panthers stand to benefit. There's been no real progress made this year with Cam Newton but that's partially the fault of his receivers and the scheme he is in. What is starting to brew is the speculation that HC Ron Rivera will be dumped in the offseason and that any new coach is going to have to on board with Newton and his different style of play. And yes, shades of Michael Vick...

Newton almost always scores in every game and yet never has passed for more than two scores. His yardage has been better in recent weeks and he took advantage of the Eagles last week when he passed for two touchdowns and rushed in two more. Of course that only serves to completely neuter one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL but by now there is no fantasy value in the running backs anyway.

Johnathan Stewart suffered a high-ankle sprain and he been nursing an older one since back in August.This ankle that Stewart injured is not the same as the one from this summer. Of course that calls into question why you would make that person be the primary back, but by now the Panthers have zero confidence in DeAngelo Williams which he justified by rushing for 21 yards on 11 carries in the Philly win. For once it doesn't even matter who is injured - no one is going to offer reliable productivity from the running back position in terms of fantasy points.

While Steve Smith still commands most of the coverage Brandon LaFell has been far more productive in the last month with a touchdown and at least 70 yards in each of the last two games. Smith has only scored once all year and is currently stuck at a ceiling of around 60 yards per game. He's only marginally better than the tight end Greg Olsen.

Playing the Chiefs usually cures whatever ails you. But their weakness against running backs is not as glaring this week with nothing more than DeAngelo Williams coming to town. The Panthers should win this game but there's not likely to be much fantasy value in any of the players outside of Newton and the starting two wide receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 8 29 23 13 32 9
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR @NO 50100026011 ****
Newton already threw for 253 yards and one score and rushed for 71 yards and another TD in the week two meeting. But the Saints at home, later in the year, are playing much better and the last two visitors combined for only one passing TD. The Saints have a score to settle and this is on the road for Newton. Expect no more than that first game and most likely less.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR @NO 6001100000 ***
Williams will probably share with a returning Stewart this week anyway and even without him around has been only mediocre anyway. Add in the Saints playing against the run well at home and Williams is a marginal play this week at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR @NO 3002200000 ***
Stewart has been out since week 12 but is hoped to play this week and therefore ruin whatever DeAngelo Williams might have done. The Saintsa at home defend the run well and have not allowed any runner to score there since week five.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Steve Smith, CAR @NO 006901000 *****
Smith is ending the year on a nice note - the last four games featured either 100 yards or a TD. He gained 104 yards in the first meeting and should be a lock for at least decent yardage with a good shot at a TD.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Domenik Hixon, CAR @NO 004601000 ***
Not only did Hixon score last week, in the earlier meeting with Philly he paced the Giants with 114 yards. With Victor Cruz scuffling a bit of late, Hixon might be a sneaky fantasy play in this must-win tilt for the G-Men.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CAR @NO 005800000 ****
LaFell turned in 6-90 in the first meeting back in week two but has never had as many catches in any other game. LaFell also rarely every scores in a road game but the Saints should get a lead and force the pass so LaFell becomes a very low end flex play in a PPR league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Greg Olsen, CAR @NO 006700000 ****
Olsen has been a solid play for around 50 yards or so for the last couple of months with the odd TD. He was held to only 1-13 in the first meeting but should end up better in this game as the Panthers #2 receiver.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR @NO 3322 ****
The Saints defense at home is better at preventing TDs than FGs. Gano is a decent play this week but could be a problem if NO gets a big lead and CAR opts to skip FG attempts.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 6-40
RB Shaun Draughn 20 2-10
RB Peyton Hillis 20 2-10
RB Dexter McCluster 20 2-20
WR Donnie Avery 2-30
WR Jonathan Baldwin 1-10
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-50
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20
TE Tony Moeaki 4-40
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs offense has declined so badly that they have not score more than one touchdown in any of the last seven games and three failed to record any. This was a bad team before the switch to Brady Quinn. Now it cannot even score double digits.the last two weeks. Aside from Jamal Charles, this team has the look of one that either completely gave up or never had the talent to be competitive.

Quinn comes off his second start of the year and still no touchdowns or more than 180 yards in either game. To his credit he only threw one interception and did not make many mistakes but then again - he did not do much of anything. This week he is going against a top ten secondary. He has ruined the fantasy value of Dwayne Bowe and is dragging the offense into the gutter for the stretch run. It gets painful to watch.

Dexter McCluster suffered a concussion last week and will have to clear his tests but he has no history of them and it did not appear to be more than a mild one. McCluster has been providing Quinn with a passing outlet three or four times per game.

Jamaal Charles should be getting half of everyone else's paychecks. On this offense with minimal other talent, Charles is still running yard and comes off 107 yards on 23 carries against the Broncos. He's topped 100 yards four times and is still playing hard even if no one else seems to be. Whatever good the offense can produce will be almost entirely because of Charles who should be productive for the rest of the fantasy season with games against CAR, CLE, OAK and IND remaining.

The passing situation is so dire now that Steve Breaston is being inactive for games. Jon Baldwin has declined until he finally reached no catches last week. Dwayne Bowe did just get 12 targets last week but only ended up with four catches for 41 yards and he was blanked by the Bengals the previous week.

Aside from Charles, there is no fantasy plays left on this team. They have gone into full bore implosion and the only thing left to happen is for the defense to finally give up and allow the floodgates for opponent's scores to open.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 10 26 6 17 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @DEN 6003200000 ***
The Chiefs' lone offensive weapon needs 44 yards to reach the 1,500-yard mark. He hit triple digits against a tough Broncos' run D in the earlier meeting, and you assume he'll get the carries necessary to hit his milestone. Then again, we've gone broke trying to understand what Romeo Crennel is thinking so there are no guarantees.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dexter McCluster, KC @DEN 005300000 ***
McCluster is putting up numbers that make him the Chiefs' WR1. That's more an indictment of KC's passing game than an endorsement of McCluster's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jonathan Baldwin, KC @DEN 005600000 ***
Baldwin has the only Chiefs WR TD in the past two months. Sorry, that's just not enough to warrant a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donnie Avery, KC @DEN 004600000 ***
Avery has been an inconsistent wingman to Reggie Wayne, and the last time Indy faced the Texans it was TY Hilton who had the more productive game. With playoff positioning at stake expect Andrew Luck to lean heavily on Wayne once again, and the Texans have a soft spot for TEs as well. That leaves Avery and Hilton splitting scraps, making either one a tough fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devon Wylie, KC @DEN 003400000 ***
Bonus points if you were able to identify Wylie as the "other" Chiefs' WR. Sorry, those bonus points do not translate to fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Anthony Fasano, KC @DEN 002200000 ***
Fasano only had one catch in the last meeting with the Pats. No fantasy value here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, KC @DEN 2111 ***
The Chiefs have more games with single-digit points (five) than games with 20-plus (four). That means limited scoring opportunities for Succop.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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