FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: CAR 24, KC 13 (LINE: CAR by 3)

Players to Watch: Cam Newton

The 3-8 Panthers come off a rare road win in Philly looking to string together two victories. The 1-10 Chiefs have not scored a touchdown in two weeks and have lost eight straight. The Chiefs are playing opponents nearly even not because they are that good, but because everyone knows they are going to win anyway so why try so hard? Playing the Chiefs is like a partial bye week.

Carolina Panthers
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @TB 10-16 10 DEN 14-36
2 NO 35-27 11 TB 21-27
3 NYG 7-36 12 @PHI 30-22
4 @ATL 28-30 13 @KC -----
5 SEA 12-16 14 ATL -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @SD -----
7 DAL 14-19 16 OAK -----
8 @CHI 22-23 17 @NO -----
9 @WAS 21-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CAR @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Cam Newton 50,1 250,2
RB Jonathan Stewart
RB Mike Tolbert 30 2-10
RB DeAngelo Williams 50 4-30
TE Greg Olsen 5-50,1
PK Graham Gano 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to imagine but the Panthers may actually win not only two consecutive games, but two consecutive road games. Right now the Eagles and Chiefs both are waving the white flag and the Panthers stand to benefit. There's been no real progress made this year with Cam Newton but that's partially the fault of his receivers and the scheme he is in. What is starting to brew is the speculation that HC Ron Rivera will be dumped in the offseason and that any new coach is going to have to on board with Newton and his different style of play. And yes, shades of Michael Vick...

Newton almost always scores in every game and yet never has passed for more than two scores. His yardage has been better in recent weeks and he took advantage of the Eagles last week when he passed for two touchdowns and rushed in two more. Of course that only serves to completely neuter one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL but by now there is no fantasy value in the running backs anyway.

Johnathan Stewart suffered a high-ankle sprain and he been nursing an older one since back in August.This ankle that Stewart injured is not the same as the one from this summer. Of course that calls into question why you would make that person be the primary back, but by now the Panthers have zero confidence in DeAngelo Williams which he justified by rushing for 21 yards on 11 carries in the Philly win. For once it doesn't even matter who is injured - no one is going to offer reliable productivity from the running back position in terms of fantasy points.

While Steve Smith still commands most of the coverage Brandon LaFell has been far more productive in the last month with a touchdown and at least 70 yards in each of the last two games. Smith has only scored once all year and is currently stuck at a ceiling of around 60 yards per game. He's only marginally better than the tight end Greg Olsen.

Playing the Chiefs usually cures whatever ails you. But their weakness against running backs is not as glaring this week with nothing more than DeAngelo Williams coming to town. The Panthers should win this game but there's not likely to be much fantasy value in any of the players outside of Newton and the starting two wide receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 8 29 23 13 32 9
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cam Newton, CAR @GB 50100024022 ***
Cam without the running is merely ordinary. But take a decent passing outing and tack on a top running back's stats and now he's Superman again. Green Bay has already allowed a couple rushing scores on the year and 49 rushing yards to Ryan Tannehill last week, suggesting Cam's combo platter is set for big things again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR @GB 5001000000 ***
Update: Stewart is listed as probable, so he'll evidently drag his oft-injured carcass around for as many snaps as his brittle legs will hold him. He's been unreliable in the past, tough to bank on him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darrin Reaves, CAR @GB 00000000 ***
Reaves has been utterly ordinary thus far, and nothing suggests he'll bust out against Green Bay this week. Plus, Cam is back to swiping scores so the fantasy potential of all Carolina RBs takes a hit.
Update: With Jonathan Stewart expected to play, Reaves goes on the way-back burner.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR @GB 005701000 **
Benjamin's an every-week fantasy starter and the most likely of any Carolina wideout to accumulate helpful fantasy numbers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerricho Cotchery, CAR @GB 004600000 ***
10 targets last week suggests Cotchery might be in line for a larger share of Carolina's passing game pie; however, all Cotchery could do with those 10 targets was 58 yards and no scores. So... as you were.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, CAR @GB 002300000 ***
Avant is the only Carolina wideout besides Kelvin Benjamin to find the end zone this year, and against a Green Bay defense that's allowed multiple WRs to score in two of the past three games that suggests he has an opportunity here. Still, it's a pretty slim opportunity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Greg Olsen, CAR @GB 005501000 ***
The Pack have yet to allow a TE TD, but Olsen is such an integral part of the Carolina passing attack he can bust any trend. He's scored in four of six and is an every-week starter in TE-mandatory formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Graham Gano, CAR @GB 2233 ***
Green Bay hasn't allowed multiple field goals--or an opposing kicker to top six points--since the season opener. Those are tough odds for Gano to buck.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR -----
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 6-40
WR Donnie Avery 2-30
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-50
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs offense has declined so badly that they have not score more than one touchdown in any of the last seven games and three failed to record any. This was a bad team before the switch to Brady Quinn. Now it cannot even score double digits.the last two weeks. Aside from Jamal Charles, this team has the look of one that either completely gave up or never had the talent to be competitive.

Quinn comes off his second start of the year and still no touchdowns or more than 180 yards in either game. To his credit he only threw one interception and did not make many mistakes but then again - he did not do much of anything. This week he is going against a top ten secondary. He has ruined the fantasy value of Dwayne Bowe and is dragging the offense into the gutter for the stretch run. It gets painful to watch.

Dexter McCluster suffered a concussion last week and will have to clear his tests but he has no history of them and it did not appear to be more than a mild one. McCluster has been providing Quinn with a passing outlet three or four times per game.

Jamaal Charles should be getting half of everyone else's paychecks. On this offense with minimal other talent, Charles is still running yard and comes off 107 yards on 23 carries against the Broncos. He's topped 100 yards four times and is still playing hard even if no one else seems to be. Whatever good the offense can produce will be almost entirely because of Charles who should be productive for the rest of the fantasy season with games against CAR, CLE, OAK and IND remaining.

The passing situation is so dire now that Steve Breaston is being inactive for games. Jon Baldwin has declined until he finally reached no catches last week. Dwayne Bowe did just get 12 targets last week but only ended up with four catches for 41 yards and he was blanked by the Bengals the previous week.

Aside from Charles, there is no fantasy plays left on this team. They have gone into full bore implosion and the only thing left to happen is for the defense to finally give up and allow the floodgates for opponent's scores to open.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 10 26 6 17 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @SD 0000024020 ***
Derek Carr's four TDs against the Chargers last week make you think with an extra week of prep Smith can at least be productive in San Diego. Plus, the last time he saw the Chargers, albeit at home, he went for 294 and 3. Dial those back a bit and bank on plenty of dumpoff love to Charles and Kelce and Smith carves out a fantasy helper for you this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @SD 8004201000 ***
Charles is back to at least close to his dominating fantasy self, but before you let expectations run amok consider that he has a grand total of 79 rushing yards and 36 receiving yards--with zero touchdowns--in his past two visits to San Diego. In fact, he's done nothing of fantasy note in America's most beautiful city since 2009. The Bolts aren't giving up much to opposing backs, though they did surrender four RB receiving scores in the first three games and last week let Darren McFreakin'Fadden take them for 80 yards on the ground. So again, Charles is solid, just not blow your socks off elite this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC @SD 300000000 ***
Last week's two-carry performance is far more indicative of what you'll get out of Davis with Jamaal Charles healthy--especially in a non-favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @SD 005600000 ***
Bowe has a decent track record in three games against the Chargers since Andy Reid took over, averaging roughly seven catches for 80 yards and a score in those tilts. And with the San Diego secondary being exposed by Derek Carr and the vaunted Raiders passing game his chances of another fantasy helper here are more than reasonable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @SD 004400000 ***
Tough to trust Kelce for fantasy assistance this week when Anthony Fasano saw twice as many targets last week and the Chargers have allowed just one TE TD on the year and an average of less than 40 yards per game to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @SD 1133 ***
Santos has topped five points only once, and a San Diego defense that's giving up an average of less than four per game isn't exactly a helper.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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