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David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: IND 23, DET 24 (LINE: DET by 4)

Players Updated: Mikel Leshoure

Players to Watch: TY Hilton, Ryan Broyles

The 7-4 Colts are not going to win the division with the 10-1 Texans in control, but they currently have a one game lead over all other AFC teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 2-3 on the road though and the 4-7 Lions are also 2-3 at home and on a three game losing streak. This game could go either way very easily.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET -----
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 240,2
RB Frank Gore 80,1 1-10
RB Robert Turbin 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 5-70,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The 7-4 Colts have a great shot at a wildcard but two matchups with the Texans in the final three weeks are likely to impact what happens to the Colts After Manning. With any luck, the Texans will have nothing to play for in that final game and just sends the subs to Indy for the game. This year has been a rousing success already if only in what Andrew Luck has done

Andrew Luck comes off one of his worst games of the year when he only threw for 240 yards and one score against the visiting Bills and he was held to only 227 yards and no passing scores by the Jaguars though he ran in two scores in that game. He's already thrown for a record setting five 300 yards games but always seems to come up smaller in games against the easier defenses. His 13 passing touchdowns are balanced by five rushing scores.

The rushing effort has been bad all year and only scored three rushing touchdowns with no one rushing for more than 80 yards in any game. In most weeks, Donald Brown and Vick Ballard are splitting the workload and neither has much fantasy value with no scores or even more than one catch per game. This hopefully is address in the draft next year.

The passing effort has boiled down to almost entirely Reggie Wayne and his 84 catches for 1105 yards. Looking deep for either Donnie Avery or TY Hilton. The tight ends rarely figure in nor do the running backs. Luck has progressed enough that he can rely on just the wide receivers. The rookie Hilton has come on strongly in the last four games with a total of four touchdowns and two efforts that exceeded 100 yards. He was blanked in week 10 by the Jags but otherwise has been producing bug numbers for the last month. He is taking over that deep role that Avery started the season out supplying.

This will be a very good test for Luck against a banged up Lions secondary. If the Colts can't win here, the playoffs will be a one week deal if they even make it there. But win this week and the Colts turnaround from last year will have been even more remarkable.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 13 11 13 28 25 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND JAC 0000024020 ***
In the last five games, Jacksonville has given up only four TD passes and 218.6 yards a contest to QBs. Luck posted a 234-2-1 line in Week 4 against this defense. Only Brian Hoyer as an individual passer has thrown for more than 300 yards in 2016 versus the Jaguars.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND JAC 8013300000 ***
Jacksonville is an overall midrange matchup, but this group has allowed a rushing TD per game in the last five weeks. Gore scored once and finished with 20.5 PPR points in their Week 4 meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND JAC 007801000 ***
Back in Week 3, Hilton caught seven passes for 42 yards and a score against the Jags. Only two of the last 57 catches granted have found the end zone versus this defense, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND JAC 003400000 ***
Dorsett shouldn't be trusted if you have anything major at stake, like a Week 17 title. He has fleeting appeal only if Donte Moncrief sits out. Jacksonville is a tough matchup for receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND JAC 002301000 ***
Houston has allowed a TD in the last 21 receptions to tight ends. Doyle is a high-risk play at this point, but there is some upside. He went for a line of 4-53-1 in the first meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND JAC 002200000 ***
Allen is largely useless for fantasy owners. It's a crapshoot to predict his involvement most weeks.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND JAC 2233 ***
Since Week 11, kickers have made all 11 FGAs and eight of 10 XPAs against the Jags. Vinatieri made both of his field goal kicks and all three extra points in the Week 4 meeting.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB 20-24
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU 31-34
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND -----
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 290,2
RB Joique Bell 20 5-30
WR Anquan Boldin 7-70
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 3-40
WR Andre Roberts 3-50
WR Golden Tate 3-40
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: These last two losses - both by four points or less - pretty much ensure that the 4-7 Lions are going to have yet another losing season since their remaining slate contains only one team with a losing record and the Cardinals game goes off in Arizona. The defense has given up 24+ points in four of the last five games but at least the offense is scoring better. The only useful part of the remaining season is determining how much they like their current receivers and backfield for next year.

Matt Stafford comes off a season high 441 passing yards against the Texans on Thanksgiving but he's never been better than the defense this season and caught the Texans with an injured secondary. He still scores in almost every game but rarely passes for more than one score.

Mikel Leshoure is not doing much in yardage but at least he's scored in three of the last four games. He has no role as a receiver and his yardage rarely top 70 yards but he gets the bulk of all rushing carries every week. Joique Bell is losing playing time to Kevin Smith in recent weeks but still has the only other running back scores since the season opener. Only Leshoure has fantasy value and that is marginal in most weeks.

While Calvin Johnson went into a lull from weeks four through eight, he's been on fire the last four games with over 120 yards in every matchup and scoring in each of the last three. He's passed A.J. Green to reclaim his spot as the top fantasy wideout. Titus Young was held out last week for disciplinary reasons and may not play in this game as well. Ryan Broyles took his place against the Texans and gained 126 yards on six catches. It appears that Young has lost his starting job for good since Broyles was expected to gain more work by next year anyway.

The nice part of the remaining schedule? It should see the Lions behind in almost all games and needing to throw. And that is the only part of the offense that generates useful fantasy points.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 8 8 28
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET GB 10000031031 ***
The Packers have given up 23.5 fantasy points per game in the last five weeks, which is the sixth highest average. The Lions are in a must-win situation if the Redskins win earlier in the day, so Stafford will lay it all on the line. Their Week 3 meeting resulted in 385 yards, three TDs and a pick in Green Bay.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Zach Zenner, DET GB 4001100000 ***
Zenner flashed several times in Week 16 but wasn't able to keep up the involvement when Detroit quickly fell into a big hole. Keep him away from lineups in what may be a similar situation against the Pack.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dwayne Washington, DET GB 3001100000 ***
Green Bay has given up receptions and yardage to a notable degree, but touchdowns haven't been easy to come by. The Lions have no commitment to the ground game, anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET GB 0061001000 ***
Tate was quiet in the Week 3 battle at Lambeau, registering only four catches for 40 yards. The Packers have given up 15.2 catches (5th most) and 193 yards (4th most) per game since Week 11, allowing a TD every 10.9 completions to receivers (14th worst).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, DET GB 003401000 ***
Boldin landed four targets for 22 yards and a TD in Week 3's matchup with Green Bay. The Packers provide the fifth most easily exploitable matchup this time around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET GB 004600000 ***
Jones went bonkers in the Week 3 matchup by posting six catches for 202 yards and two scores for a whopping 38.5 PPR points. He hasn't totaled 38.5 PPR points in his last six games combined.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET GB 006801000 ***
The Packers have allowed a TD on the last 26 receptions faced by tight ends. Ebron hauled in five passes for 69 yards in Week 3 against Green Bay, and he was heavily involved last week as the Lions were forced into catch-up mode.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET GB 1133 ***
Green Bay has permitted all seven field goal attempts to clear the uprights, while seven of nine point-afters were good in the last five games. This is a bottom-seven matchup for Week 17.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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