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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: JAC 20, BUF 27 (Line: BUF by 6)

Players Updated: Justin Blackmon, Cecil Shorts, Donald Jones

Players to Watch: Chad Henne, Justin Blackmon, Rashad Jennings

The 2-9 Jaguars come off a win over the Titans that ended a seven game losing streak. That's so embarrassing for the Titans that they fired their offensive coordinator after the game. The 4-7 Bills come off a loss in Indianapolis where lead wideout openly complained about Chan Gailey calling the plays. That makes this happy setup a hard one to call because both teams are inconsistent at best and mostly bad anyway. Have to like the homebound Bills but the Jags seem to have finally realized they can get back into the race if they just have a different driver. All this time Blaine Gabbert though he was driving an automatic transmission and it was really a five-speed manual.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF -----
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 260,2
RB Chris Ivory 30
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-50

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars scored 51 points in just two games and one was in Houston. That speaks volumes to how much better the offense is running with Chad Henne at the helm. And this was all without Maurice Jones-Drew. Imagine being able to pass and run just like a real NFL team. It boggles the mind that Blaine Gabbert threw nine touchdowns over ten games and Chad Henne has six over just the last two weeks. The season is plenty lost and Jones-Drew may not even make it back this year or ever. But at least this late season revival is setting the stage for hopefully better things next year.

Henne passed for 354 yards and four scores in Houston and he still followed that up with 261 yards and two more touchdowns in the win over the Titans. The major difference is that he actually throws downfield. Gabbert threw for only 1662 yards this year and averaged only 10 yards per completion. Henne has thrown for 615 yards over the last two games and averaged 19 yards per completion. Big difference. The defense was already crowding the line because of Jones-Drew anyway, and Gabbert would not or could not throw deep completions to make them pay.

Jalen Parmele's big coming out party was short lived since he injured his leg after eight runs last week and left the game. I'll count him out for now and adjust according to what he does in practice. Rashad Jennings took over for him and ran for only 43 yards on 16 carries which is exactly why he was replaced. He did score in the game for the second time all year. Maurice Jones-Drew is still not expected back this week and his healing process may be lacking in dedication to a quick return. While he should be back before the season ends, what shape he is in or what his level of drive will be remains to be seen. We have probably already seen the best of MJD for this year to be sure.

The increased passing effort has helped Marcedes Lewis to score twice and stick around 40 to 50 yards per game. Cecil Shorts was already the lone decent receiver and he is on a three game scoring streak and topped 100 yards in three of the last five games. Justin Blackmon is said to be more dedicated in practice and finally getting a handle on the game speed in the NFL. He comes off a five catch, 62 yard game with one score on the Titans. He certainly appears to be getting it.

The Bills remain bottom ten in defense against almost all the positions and especially running back which could help Jennings produce at least marginal stats. Once again we will watch the passing effort. Third time in a row and that's a full blown trend.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 23 32 23 16 16 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC MIN 30100019002 ***
Minnesota has given up a TD every 12.5 completions in the last month, but that is where the fun stops for QBs. This is the sixth strongest opponent of the position, and only two teams have conceded more yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC MIN 3003200000 ***
Yeldon should be be trusted in any format against this stingy opponent. The Vikings have allowed only two rushing touchdowns by RBs in the last five games.

Update: Chris Ivory is a game-time decision, but after not practicing in full at all this week, he's closer to doubtful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC MIN 003300000 ***
No Harrison Smith could help, but the Vikings have done a fantastic job of limited receivers. The position has averaged bottom-12 numbers in receptions, yards, points per play, and fantasy points scored over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC MIN 004300000 ***
The Vikings remain one of fantasy's toughest defenses against receivers. Since Week 8, this is the eighth worst matchup for fantasy wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Neal Sterling, JAC MIN 004500000 ***
Neal would see more work if Julius Thomas is once again out, but trusting him in a lineup is ill-advised.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC MIN 1111 ***
The Vikings have done a fine job of limiting defensive touchdowns all year, and that hasn't changed in the past five weeks. The kicker position has kicked 12 field goals to only nine extra points in this time. Jacksonville struggles to score points of any kind.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC -----
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL -----
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA -----
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 40 3-20
RB LeSean McCoy
WR Percy Harvin
TE Charles Clay 4-50
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills offense never much came back after their week eight bye with three of the four games posting fewer than 20 points. Stevie Johnson called publicly for HC Chan Gailey to stop calling plays which seems more like something to discuss in his offense than the newspaper. Any maybe not after a game where he was targeted 15 times and produced 106 yards for his best of the season. But his complaint is hardly new - most defenses are saying that the Bills offense is predictable and unimaginative. Throw in a bad defense and you have some problems.

Ryan Fitzpatrick seems highly inconsistent with four games of no scores in the last seven weeks and yet four games with three touchdowns. The secret to Johnson is simple - he is as good or bad as the defense allows him to be. Nothing more and nothing less. When he faces a great defense, he won't reach 200 yards or score no matter the venue. When it is a bad defense - say like the Patriots - he throw for over 300 yards and several touchdowns every time. This week the Jaguars on the road are bottom ten in defense. Fitzpatrick should do okay this week.

Now that Fred Jackson is back from his concussion, he'll be the 40% to C.J. Spillers 60% each week which means you almost have a decent fantasy start with Spiller. Jackson scored twice in New England but has been of marginal production in virtually every other game. Spiller has gained 100 total yards in each of the last six games but has just one score in the last nine games and his role as a receiver has gone down as well.

The receivers are still just about Stevie Johnson who rarely scores but does gain 70+ yards in almost every game. Scott Chandler has lost all fantasy value by now which means he may be in for a good game. Donald Jones is still a starter but is wildly inconsistent with games from literally a one yard loss on one catch up to 90 yards and a score. Fortunately the defense they face is below average which means Spiller and Johnson both are must starts this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 6 28 17 24 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF PIT 50000019001 ***
Pittsburgh has closed the door on fantasy quarterbacks lately. Taylor doesn't belong in fantasy lineups for owners looking to advance or make the postseason. This is the fifth hardest matchup in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF PIT 12023200000 ***
In the last five games, running backs have scored twice on the ground and another two times through the air versus the Steelers. That is about where the fun ends. This is the third harshest matchup for combined yardage allowed per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mike Gillislee, BUF PIT 3001100000 ***
One of every 29 touches by running backs have led to touchdowns against the Steelers in the last five weeks, which is the 12th best figure in the league. This is a tough matchup overall, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF PIT 004500000 ***
Receivers as a team have averaged a collective 12.4 catches, 157.4 yards and a TD every 15.5 grabs against Pittsburgh since Week 8. Watkins has more down than upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF PIT 004400000 ***
Always a home run threat, Goodwin has mild appeal for gambling owners in non-PPR scoring, but Pittsburgh has allowed four TDs on the last 62 catches (10th worst).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF PIT 003400000 *
Check back Friday for more information on his status for Week 14.

Update: Woods is expected to play, according to Rex Ryan. The wideout is questionable after a limited practice session Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF PIT 004300000 ***
Clay missed last week because of his wife going into labor, but we assume he will be back in the lineup this week. He has little value in fantasy at this point, though, since going on a two-month cold streak.

Update: Clay (knee) is questionable but should play through the injury.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF PIT 2222 ***
Kickers have kicked 6-for-7 field goals and 6-for-7 extra points against the Steelers over the last five weeks. This is a bottom-three matchup for kickers.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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