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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: MIN 20, GB 31 (LINE: GB by 9)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings

Players to Watch: Greg Jennings

The Vikings were swept by the Packers last year, losing 27-33 at home and later 7-45 in Green Bay.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 20 200,1
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
WR Greg Jennings 2-20
WR Jarius Wright 5-60,1
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The 6-5 Vikings hold onto a winning record is probably over for good this year. After getting waxed in Chicago, they get to play this week in Green Bay, then host the Bears, then road trips to good defenses in St. Louis and Houston before a final wrap up against the Packers. So no more of that whole "favored to win" thing. These final five games are going to be brutal and with Percy Harvin still ailing, they are literally down to Arian Peterson and more Adrian Peterson.

Peterson actually missed the team bus to Chicago last week but for some reason he was not suspended like most players would be. I have to think HC Leslie Frazier finally caught up to him and gave him a very stern apology for leaving without him. Plus a free dinner coupon at Applebees because it is ADRIAN PETERSON MAN. No - all men are not created equal. Not in purple anyway.

Adrian Peterson only gained 51 yards on 14 runs in Green Bay last year but scored once. He is on a five game stretch of 100+ rushing yards and always remains above 100 total yards in every game regardless.

Christian Ponder really flounders when Percy Harvin is not there to constantly throw passes at. Ponder passed for just 190 yards and no scores in Green Bay last year. The entire set of wideouts are one of the weakest in the league and are weakest once you deduct Harvin. Jerome SImpson has been of no help and Michael Jenkins insists on being Michael Jenkins. Kyle Rudolph became the primary receiver for the last two weeks and scored in each while catching around six passes for 60 yards in both. His stock for next year has to be higher because the team around him is bound to get better. In theory anyway.

The rookie Jarius Wright has shown up for two weeks now covering for Harvin. He is somewhat encouraging with 3-65 and a score against the Lions and then 7-49 in Chicago. Considering the lackluster stats around him, that is pretty good.

The Vikings have to hope that Peterson gets early success and keeps the game competitive because once the Packers get a lead of any size, the Vikings are back to playing volleyball between Ponder and the wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 12 30 16 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 26 4 18 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN @GB 30000019011 *
While Teddy's first pro start was impressive, there are many reasons not to like his prospects here--among them a short prep week made shorter by missed practices due to his ankle injury as well as the impact his bum ankle will have on his mobility. The Vikes might give him the week off; you should beat them to the punch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Asiata, MIN @GB 6013200000 ***
Be it a hobbled Teddy Bridgewater or a desperation Christian Ponder--not to mention the forecast of rain--the Vikings will be leaning on their ground game this week. Unfortunate that Adrian Peterson isn't at their disposal, but Asiata has capitalized on favorable matchups and this meeting with a Green Bay run D that's allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs qualifies as favorable.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN @GB 006601000 ***
It's a homecoming of sorts for Jennings, but don't expect it to be a pleasant one; between his comments dissing Green Bay and the Vikings' expected lack of a healthy Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, the passing game will be fighting an uphill battle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN @GB 006800000 **
Wright may wind up being more than just a one-hit wonder, but he'll have to work on that second hit next week because this matchup with a Green Bay defense that has allowed a second WR to top 40 yards only once--to the pass-heavy Lions--isn't likely to yield much fantasy fruit. That goes double if Wright's training camp running mate Teddy Bridgewater is unable to play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN @GB 004500000 ***
Eventually Norv Turner will fulfill his promise and force-feed the ball to Patterson... right? Be tough to do with Christian Ponder at the helm, which is quite likely given the short work week. On the bright side, there's always the return game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rhett Ellison, MIN @GB 001200000 ***
Don't be swayed by what Martellus Bennett accomplished against Green Bay last week; Ellison is in no way, shape or form used in the same manner and is not a fantasy option this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN @GB 1122 ***
Walsh has multiple field goals in three of four; the Packers have allowed only one field goal in three straight. Break the tie by looking at Minnesota's offense, especially if Christian Ponder is quarterbacking. Can they even get into field goal range? There's your answer.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
RB John Kuhn 10,1 2-10
RB James Starks 40 2-10
WR Randall Cobb 10 5-60,1
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers ended their five game winning streak in a particularly ugly manner in New York that smacked of a Packers team just tired and not giving the effort. Aside from Jordy Nelson catching a 61-yard touchdown in the first quarter, there was nearly no offense by the Packers. Deduct the one pass and Aaron Rodgers passed for only 158 yards and no scores. It all went bad very quickly and never got any better. Fortunately it was clearly an aberration and just "one of those games."

Rodgers passed for 250 yards and four touchdowns versus the visiting Vikings in 2011. His last three home games combined for ten touchdowns. Rodgers will be fine this week and bounce back against a very familiar opponent. The real test will come in week 15 when he plays in Chicago for what may be the NFC North crown.

The rushing effort here ranks as the worst in the NFL and has only scored twice all year. No runners ever get close to 100 yards. They rarely catch many passes. And now Alex Green and James Starks are splitting carries which is like mediocrity in stereo. It may be in Rodgers contract that they are banned from assembling a decent rushing game that could detract from all the passing. Cedric Benson becomes eligible to come off the PUP list but it appears he is in no jeopardy of actually playing any time soon. There could be more info later in the week but most reports have Benson not even close to 100%.

This week will see Greg Jennings practicing and likely playing though he will be limited in his first game back since week four. Randall Cobb has become such a major cog in the offense in his absence that it will be interesting to see how they fit Jennings back in. Cobb scored seven times in the last seven weeks and often led the team in yardage. Jordy Nelson is locked in as the flanker and he led the Packers with five catches for 63 yards and two scores on the visiting Vikings last year. James Jones has been in decline recently and though he was an official starter against the Giants, he was never thrown any passes. With Jennings returning, Jones role is even more in question.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 32 1 12 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 16 11 20 14 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB MIN 0000029020 ***
Rodgers has thrown for at least 250 yards in 10 straight against the Vikings, who have also allowed back-to-back 293- and 298-yard passing performances. Rodgers has also thrown for multiple TDs in 8 of his last 10 against Minnesota. Plenty of reasons to take Rodgers' advice and relax as you plug him into your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB MIN 4012100000 ***
Lacy has blown up the Vikings in each of his two career meetings--158 combo yards and a TD at home, 112 yards from scrimmage and a touch in Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed at least one RB TD and a 60-plus yard rusher in each of the past three games, with Lacy a strong candidate to stretch that string to four.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB MIN 0081201000 ****
What's not to like? Minnesota's secondary has been only lightly challenged thus far this season, and between Nelson and Randall Cobb Green Bay is certain to tax them--with Nelson and his dozen targets per game leading the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB MIN 007901000 ***
Cobb is still looking for his first career touchdown against the Vikings, and he has an outstanding chance of breaking his maiden here: working out of the slot he'll be matched with the extremely fantasy-friendly Captain Munnerlyn for most of the evening.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB MIN 002300000 ***
No Jarrett Boykin opens the door wide for the rookie Adams; considering that Boykin's WR3 role yielded 149 yards and a touchdown in the two-game series with Minnesota last season, it's a door to a great fantasy opportunity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Richard Rodgers, GB MIN 002300000 ****
Rodgers continues to share looks with Andrew Quarless; moreover, the tight end has slipped to fourth in Aaron Rodgers' passing game pecking order. It's a somewhat favorable matchup, but the target split makes Rodgers an extremely difficult fantasy start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB MIN 3333 ***
Crosby's only home game yielded three field goals--one more than he has in his other three games combined. The Pack should put plenty of points on the board, meaning Crosby is in line to get his.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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