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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: MIN 20, GB 31 (LINE: GB by 9)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings

Players to Watch: Greg Jennings

The Vikings were swept by the Packers last year, losing 27-33 at home and later 7-45 in Green Bay.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 20 200,1
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
WR Greg Jennings 2-20
WR Jarius Wright 5-60,1
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The 6-5 Vikings hold onto a winning record is probably over for good this year. After getting waxed in Chicago, they get to play this week in Green Bay, then host the Bears, then road trips to good defenses in St. Louis and Houston before a final wrap up against the Packers. So no more of that whole "favored to win" thing. These final five games are going to be brutal and with Percy Harvin still ailing, they are literally down to Arian Peterson and more Adrian Peterson.

Peterson actually missed the team bus to Chicago last week but for some reason he was not suspended like most players would be. I have to think HC Leslie Frazier finally caught up to him and gave him a very stern apology for leaving without him. Plus a free dinner coupon at Applebees because it is ADRIAN PETERSON MAN. No - all men are not created equal. Not in purple anyway.

Adrian Peterson only gained 51 yards on 14 runs in Green Bay last year but scored once. He is on a five game stretch of 100+ rushing yards and always remains above 100 total yards in every game regardless.

Christian Ponder really flounders when Percy Harvin is not there to constantly throw passes at. Ponder passed for just 190 yards and no scores in Green Bay last year. The entire set of wideouts are one of the weakest in the league and are weakest once you deduct Harvin. Jerome SImpson has been of no help and Michael Jenkins insists on being Michael Jenkins. Kyle Rudolph became the primary receiver for the last two weeks and scored in each while catching around six passes for 60 yards in both. His stock for next year has to be higher because the team around him is bound to get better. In theory anyway.

The rookie Jarius Wright has shown up for two weeks now covering for Harvin. He is somewhat encouraging with 3-65 and a score against the Lions and then 7-49 in Chicago. Considering the lackluster stats around him, that is pretty good.

The Vikings have to hope that Peterson gets early success and keeps the game competitive because once the Packers get a lead of any size, the Vikings are back to playing volleyball between Ponder and the wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 12 30 16 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 26 4 18 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN @TB 20000019011 ***
Four straight QBs have thrown for multiple touchdowns and at least 286 yards against the Bucs. Bridgewater may not be ready to step up to that level just yet--he's been sub-200 yards the past two weeks and just threw his first NFL touchdown last week--but the opportunity certainly is there.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN @TB 9014200000 ****
McKinnon has topped the century mark in two of the past four games; a defense that's allowed Justin Forsett to rush for 111 yards and the likes of Khiry Robinson (89 and 1), Antone Smith (50 and 1), Steven Jackson (54 and 1), and Zac Stacy (71 and 1) to have success doesn't exactly project to be a stopper here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN @TB 006701000 **
Since the Vikings steadfastly refuse to throw high-volume targets at Cordarrelle Patterson, Jennings remains fantasy relevant. And in a matchup with a defense that's allowed 10 different wideouts to top 50 yards and four different wide receivers to score touchdowns last week alone, relevant means opportunity this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN @TB 004600000 ***
Tough to see Teddy Bridgewater feeding three mouths in the passing game, but Wright has managed to carve out some fantasy value on a somewhat regular basis. It's an incredibly favorable matchup, so if you're reaching you could certainly do worse than Wright.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN @TB 002100000 ***
10 receivers have racked up at least 50 yards against the Bucs; four scored against them last week alone. Patterson still isn't getting the targets, but there's no question the Vikings are making an effort to get the ball in his hands. Against this defense, that may be all he needs to have that bustout game we've been waiting for.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Rhett Ellison, MIN @TB 001100000 ***
The Vikings didn't complete a single pass to a tight end last week, and nothing in this matchup suggests digging this far down into the Vikings passing game for fantasy help is a smart move.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN @TB 1122 ****
When you're giving up 34 points a game, as the Bucs are doing, opponents are bound to get their kicks against you. And right now Walsh might be the Vikings' best/only offensive weapon.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
RB John Kuhn 10,1 2-10
RB James Starks 40 2-10
WR Randall Cobb 10 5-60,1
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers ended their five game winning streak in a particularly ugly manner in New York that smacked of a Packers team just tired and not giving the effort. Aside from Jordy Nelson catching a 61-yard touchdown in the first quarter, there was nearly no offense by the Packers. Deduct the one pass and Aaron Rodgers passed for only 158 yards and no scores. It all went bad very quickly and never got any better. Fortunately it was clearly an aberration and just "one of those games."

Rodgers passed for 250 yards and four touchdowns versus the visiting Vikings in 2011. His last three home games combined for ten touchdowns. Rodgers will be fine this week and bounce back against a very familiar opponent. The real test will come in week 15 when he plays in Chicago for what may be the NFC North crown.

The rushing effort here ranks as the worst in the NFL and has only scored twice all year. No runners ever get close to 100 yards. They rarely catch many passes. And now Alex Green and James Starks are splitting carries which is like mediocrity in stereo. It may be in Rodgers contract that they are banned from assembling a decent rushing game that could detract from all the passing. Cedric Benson becomes eligible to come off the PUP list but it appears he is in no jeopardy of actually playing any time soon. There could be more info later in the week but most reports have Benson not even close to 100%.

This week will see Greg Jennings practicing and likely playing though he will be limited in his first game back since week four. Randall Cobb has become such a major cog in the offense in his absence that it will be interesting to see how they fit Jennings back in. Cobb scored seven times in the last seven weeks and often led the team in yardage. Jordy Nelson is locked in as the flanker and he led the Packers with five catches for 63 yards and two scores on the visiting Vikings last year. James Jones has been in decline recently and though he was an official starter against the Giants, he was never thrown any passes. With Jennings returning, Jones role is even more in question.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 32 1 12 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 16 11 20 14 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @NO 0000029030 ****
Relax; the Saints have given up at least 249 yards and multiple touchdowns in each of the past four games, while Rodgers has multiple scores in four straight.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB @NO 6013200000 ****
Lacy's been a road dog this year, averaging 39 yards per game at under three yards a carry. The Saints haven't served up much on the ground in two home dates, and with James Starks swiping more than the occasional series Lacy is no longer the fantasy lock he once was.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @NO 006902000 ****
The Saints have allowed multiple receivers to score in three straight games, so if you had any qualms about Jordy Nelson stealing all the thunder--don't. Plenty left over for Cobb this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @NO 0081201000 ****
Nelson has scored in four straight and has reached triple-digit yardage each of his last two on the road; he remains an every-week elite fantasy play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @NO 003400000 ****
Adams has been a fantasy factor each of the past three weeks; against a Saints defense that's allowed multiple wideouts to score each of the past three weeks, even after Cobb and Nelson take their bites there should be enough left for Adams to put food on your fantasy table.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Andrew Quarless, GB @NO 002200000 ***
The Saints haven't allowed a tight end TD since Week 1, and Quarless's involvement in this offense is far too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start given the unfavorable matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @NO 1144 ***
Too many PATs, not enough FGs for Mason to be an elite fantasy helper. He won't be helped by a Saints defense that's allowing a similar pattern to opposing kickers.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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