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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: MIN 20, GB 31 (LINE: GB by 9)

Players Updated: Percy Harvin, Kyle Rudolph, Greg Jennings

Players to Watch: Greg Jennings

The Vikings were swept by the Packers last year, losing 27-33 at home and later 7-45 in Green Bay.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB -----
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Adrian Peterson 110,1 5-30
WR Jarius Wright 5-60,1
TE Kyle Rudolph 3-30
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The 6-5 Vikings hold onto a winning record is probably over for good this year. After getting waxed in Chicago, they get to play this week in Green Bay, then host the Bears, then road trips to good defenses in St. Louis and Houston before a final wrap up against the Packers. So no more of that whole "favored to win" thing. These final five games are going to be brutal and with Percy Harvin still ailing, they are literally down to Arian Peterson and more Adrian Peterson.

Peterson actually missed the team bus to Chicago last week but for some reason he was not suspended like most players would be. I have to think HC Leslie Frazier finally caught up to him and gave him a very stern apology for leaving without him. Plus a free dinner coupon at Applebees because it is ADRIAN PETERSON MAN. No - all men are not created equal. Not in purple anyway.

Adrian Peterson only gained 51 yards on 14 runs in Green Bay last year but scored once. He is on a five game stretch of 100+ rushing yards and always remains above 100 total yards in every game regardless.

Christian Ponder really flounders when Percy Harvin is not there to constantly throw passes at. Ponder passed for just 190 yards and no scores in Green Bay last year. The entire set of wideouts are one of the weakest in the league and are weakest once you deduct Harvin. Jerome SImpson has been of no help and Michael Jenkins insists on being Michael Jenkins. Kyle Rudolph became the primary receiver for the last two weeks and scored in each while catching around six passes for 60 yards in both. His stock for next year has to be higher because the team around him is bound to get better. In theory anyway.

The rookie Jarius Wright has shown up for two weeks now covering for Harvin. He is somewhat encouraging with 3-65 and a score against the Lions and then 7-49 in Chicago. Considering the lackluster stats around him, that is pretty good.

The Vikings have to hope that Peterson gets early success and keeps the game competitive because once the Packers get a lead of any size, the Vikings are back to playing volleyball between Ponder and the wideouts.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 12 30 16 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 26 4 18 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN @GB 0000023011 ***
Bridgewater has one multiple touchdown game in his last nine, and while he mustered 296 and 1 in the earlier meeting with Green Bay that feels like his upside here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN @GB 7012100000 ***
Peterson has scored in three straight, seven of eight and 12 of his last 14 against the Packers so even if his carries or production are limited--like his 13-45-1 in the earlier meeting this year--he's still a solid bet for the end zone. And there's always the upside of a big run or a second score, offsetting the risk of the Vikings falling behind early and being forced to switch to a better pass-catching back.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN @GB 004600000 ***
Wright was solid (4-50) in the earlier meeting with Green Bay and paced Vikings receivers with 3-57 last week. However, with an upside in the 50-yard range he's a fringe fantasy contributor at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN @GB 004300000 ***
Green Bay's banged up secondary has allowed 100-yard efforts in back-to-back games, multiple WR TDs in each of those contests. Diggs briefly returned to midseason form with a pair of scores a couple weeks back, but the Vikings passing game is too inconsistent for him to be a bankable fantasy play. Settle for the upside of his frightening 6-66 stat line from the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN @GB 007701000 ***
Rudy was huge in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, catching six balls for 106 yards and a TD. He's topped 50 yards in three straight against the Pack and a good bet to reprise those earlier numbers against a Green Bay defense that's given up six games of 50-plus yards to opposing tight ends this year and six TE TDs in the past 10 games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN @GB 2122 ***
At least eight points in
six straight road games, so maybe
Vikes should stay outdoors?

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN -----
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 290,3
RB John Kuhn 10,1 2-10
RB James Starks 40 2-10
WR Randall Cobb 10 5-60,1
WR James Jones 3-40
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
TE Jared Cook 1-20,1
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers ended their five game winning streak in a particularly ugly manner in New York that smacked of a Packers team just tired and not giving the effort. Aside from Jordy Nelson catching a 61-yard touchdown in the first quarter, there was nearly no offense by the Packers. Deduct the one pass and Aaron Rodgers passed for only 158 yards and no scores. It all went bad very quickly and never got any better. Fortunately it was clearly an aberration and just "one of those games."

Rodgers passed for 250 yards and four touchdowns versus the visiting Vikings in 2011. His last three home games combined for ten touchdowns. Rodgers will be fine this week and bounce back against a very familiar opponent. The real test will come in week 15 when he plays in Chicago for what may be the NFC North crown.

The rushing effort here ranks as the worst in the NFL and has only scored twice all year. No runners ever get close to 100 yards. They rarely catch many passes. And now Alex Green and James Starks are splitting carries which is like mediocrity in stereo. It may be in Rodgers contract that they are banned from assembling a decent rushing game that could detract from all the passing. Cedric Benson becomes eligible to come off the PUP list but it appears he is in no jeopardy of actually playing any time soon. There could be more info later in the week but most reports have Benson not even close to 100%.

This week will see Greg Jennings practicing and likely playing though he will be limited in his first game back since week four. Randall Cobb has become such a major cog in the offense in his absence that it will be interesting to see how they fit Jennings back in. Cobb scored seven times in the last seven weeks and often led the team in yardage. Jordy Nelson is locked in as the flanker and he led the Packers with five catches for 63 yards and two scores on the visiting Vikings last year. James Jones has been in decline recently and though he was an official starter against the Giants, he was never thrown any passes. With Jennings returning, Jones role is even more in question.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 32 1 12 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 16 11 20 14 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB MIN 0000025020 ***
Behind a banged up line and mired in a two-game mini-slump--longer, if you want to go back to his last 300-yard game back in week 10--Rodgers is no longer a fantasy lock, at home or otherwise. Further limiting expectations are a now-healthy Vikings defense and an underachieving receiving corps.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB MIN 10011100000 ***
Lacy has owned the Vikings, with four straight 100-yard rushing games (after a 94-yard debut) and six touchdowns in five career meetings. The Vikings vow to tackle lower and have returned multiple key defenders to the lineup following injuries, but there's still plenty of reasons to like the wildly inconsistent Lacy's chances this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB James Starks, GB MIN 2004401000 ***
Starks had some run as the Packers' pass-catching back, then filled in for the enigmatic Eddie Lacy, and now has returned to limited touches. Given Lacy's track record of success against the Vikings, expect Starks to take a back seat--fantasy and otherwise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, GB MIN 005701000 ***
Jones went big with 6-109-1 in Minnesota, but in five games since then he's totaled just 16-196-1. Startable based on the earlier meeting with Minnesota, but inconsistent nonetheless.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB MIN 006700000 **
Cobb has been Aaron Rodgers most reliable target over the past five games, catching two-thirds of his 34 targets for 239 yards but failing to find the end zone since scoring against the Vikings in Week 11. Still, he's the safest of Green Bay's receiver options.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB MIN 003400000 ***
More targets than Cobb since the Vikings game, but he hasn't topped 42 yards since then and has one touchdown--and many more key drops. Unreliable in more ways than one.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, GB MIN 003400000 ***
It'd be easier to be fired up about the Niners giving up TE TDs in two of the past three games if Cooks had scored recently. Like, at any point this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Richard Rodgers, GB MIN 002200000 ***
The Vikings haven't given up a TE TD since Week 10 and held Rodgers to 3-7 in the earlier meeting. Rodgers has done little since his Hail Mary back in Week 13 and is too inconsistent to be banked on here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB MIN 22233 ***
Season-high sixteen
in last game against Vikings
Settle for three much?

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

a d v e r t i s e m e n t