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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NYG 34, WAS 27 (LINE: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: David Wilson

This is a replay of week seven when the Giants won 27-23. The Giants have a two game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. The Redskins come off two wins over the Cowboys and Eagles and could make a real statement with a win in this game. This game shows how far the Redskins offense has really come. And how much the defense has not.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 300,3
RB Peyton Hillis 20 2-10
RB Rashad Jennings 60
WR Victor Cruz 6-90,1
WR Kevin Ogletree
WR Rueben Randle 2-30

Pregame Notes: What a difference some rest makes. The Giants were on a two game losing streak with Eli Manning throwing ducks and not scoring. Take their bye and come back and voila! everything is well. Other than Andre Brown of course who was lost for the season with a broken leg. The first game against the Redskins was right at the start of the offensive struggles for the Giants. This week we get to see if everything really is all better or not.

The biggest change is how the Giants will deal with the loss of Brown who scored eight touchdowns in his role as the "thunder" of the backfield. David Wilson is next on the depth chart and certainly should see some increase but he's been mostly a special teamer and is not nearly as big as Brown. Wilson is a decent replace for Bradshaw perhaps, but the role that the 6-0, 227 lb. Brown filled is not what the 5-10, 202 lb Wilson is going to do.

The Giants just signed Ryan Torain who should figure in at some point. With Bradshaw less than Mr. Durability, the depth chart for running backs are more important here than most teams. Brown scored in all but one game that he played and would receive up to a dozen carries in some games. He scored in the previous game with the Redskins but only gained 17 yards on five carries. Bradshaw also scored once and gained 43 yards on 12 runs and added 22 yards on four receptions.

Martellus Bennett had his best game of the year when he gained 79 yards on five catches against the Redskins. Hakeem Nicks was held to only 53 yards on five receptions that week while Victor Cruz ended with seven receptions for 131 yards and one score for one of his best efforts of the season.

The rushing effort should be downplayed this week since the Skins already handled them last time and Brown is out. As good as the Skins may be playing, they did just give up 441 yards and three scores to Tony Romo. Manning threw for 337 yards and one score in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 20 7 10 23 1 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG IND 0000026020 ***
The shutout in Philly is looking more and more like the exception rather than the rule after Eli and the Giants hopped back in the saddle with 248 and 3 in Dallas in Week 7. Considering the once-vaunted Indy D just gave up 522 and six to Ben Roethlisberger, it wouldn't be out of line to expect Eli to come up with half those numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Williams, NYG IND 600000000 ***
Doesn't look like Rashad Jennings will be back so it's still Andre's show. Unfortunately Andre hasn't been particularly impressive with additional carries; after scoring the first two times his workload ticked into double digits he's laid a pair of road eggs at a shade over three yards per carry. At least he's back home this week, but keep your expectations low against a Colts defense that has shut out Giovani Bernard and Le'Veon Bell in back-to-back weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG IND 006801000 **
Randle remains the most targeted Giants receiver, and while Indy's overall passing game stats are impressive they did just allow 5-83-2 to similarly sized Martavis Bryant last week so Randle's at least worth a look-see here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham, NYG IND 004500000 ***
Beckham has three TDs in as many games since making his NFL debut. With an extra week to acclimate to the offense--and give Ben McAdoo an opportunity to figure out how to take advantage of his skills--there's no reason to think his role reduces. It's not a favorable matchup on paper, but the Steelers showed last week Indy's secondary isn't infallible so Beckham remains in play fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG IND 007801000 ***
Indy's allowed five TE TDs and five games of 70-plus yards to the position already this year; so long as Daniel Fells doesn't keep swiping Larry's scores he's a solid bordering on spectacular fantasy play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG IND 2222 ***
Brown has been in double digits the past two home games, but an Indy D that hasn't allowed a kicker to top 10 points since Week 2 likely holds him in check this week.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,2
RB Alfred Morris 100 3-20
WR Pierre Garcon 5-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 3-50
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Skins are on a two game winning streak but apparently need to remain within their division to notch a victory. The last two wins - the Eagles and Cowboys - were preceded by a loss to the visiting Panthers. These last two games had at least 31 points in each and yet the two previous did not top 13. The good news - the Skins remain in the division again this week.

Robert Griffin III was on a down turn in his stats until these last two weeks. He threw for eight touchdowns over the first nine games and that included three times failing to score at all via the pass. But the last two games saw him throw four scores in each for the same total he needed nine games to attain. Griffin passed for 311 yards in Dallas but was rarely over 200 yards in the previous five weeks. Griffin's only good game in that time was against the Giants when he threw for 258 yards and two scores. He also rushed for 89 yards on nine carries.

Alfred Morris turned in a surprising 113 yards and one score in Dallas on 24 carries. It was his first score in five games and only his fourth time to surpass 100 rushing yards. Morris has no role as a receiver and derives his entire fantasy value via the run. In week seven, he gained a season high 120 yards on 22 runs while visiting the Giants.

The wide receiver crew continues to be a mish-mash of players that cannot offer enough production or reliability to merit much fantasy consideration. Santana Moss scored in four of the last five games and totals seven touchdowns on the season but almost never gains more than 50 yards in any game. The only real development here is that Pierre Garcon finally showed up a mere 11 weeks since his only decent game and posted five receptions for 93 yards and one score on the Cowboys during Thanksgiving Day.

Back in week seven, Moss caught both touchdown passes against the Giants and yet only ended with three catches for 67 yards in his best game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 6 29 15 12 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colt McCoy, WAS @MIN 0000026011 **
If RG3 can't make it out of practice this week and McCoy gets the nod he's not exactly a fantasy lock; the Vikings have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @MIN 8011100000 ****
RG3's return would be a boon for Morris, as his two best showings came with the threat of RG3 in the same backfield. Morris has 12 or more carries in every game; the seven backs to hit that mark against Minnesota average 70 yards a game and have accounted for four TDs as well. Give those numbers the RG3 boost and this is at minimum a solid opportunity for Alf.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @MIN 006901000 ***
The Vikings typically have trouble with speed receivers--like Sammy Watkins, who torched them for 9-122-2 a couple weeks back. That bodes well for DJax, as done the return of RG3 to the helm.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @MIN 005600000 ***
Garcon saw enough early-season volume with RG3 at the helm that his return bodes well for Pierre's stats in PPR formats; also doesn't hurt that the Vikings have allowed multiple WRs to score and/or top 60 yards in four of their last six games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS @MIN 004300000 ***
If the season opener is any indication, Roberts runs a distant third in Washington's WR pecking order when RG3 is at the helm. No reason to reach for him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @MIN 004500000 ***
Mike Zimmer has tightened up a Vikings D that traditionally was torched by tight ends; this year they've allowed only two TE TDs and no tight end to top 56 yards against them. Those aren't fantasy-friendly numbers for Reed; add in the fact he's still sharing looks with Niles Paul and he's a fringe fantasy play at best.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @MIN 2122 ***
Won't be easy for Forbath to get his kicks against a Minnesota defense that either rolls over and gives up PATs (zero field goals, 13 XP attempts Weeks 3-5) or shuts the door altogether (just 47 points allowed total over the past three weeks). Plus, his fantasy prospects are a bone to be chewed when the gales of November come early.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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