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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NYG 34, WAS 27 (LINE: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: David Wilson

This is a replay of week seven when the Giants won 27-23. The Giants have a two game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. The Redskins come off two wins over the Cowboys and Eagles and could make a real statement with a win in this game. This game shows how far the Redskins offense has really come. And how much the defense has not.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 300,3
RB Peyton Hillis 20 2-10
RB Rashad Jennings 60
WR Victor Cruz 6-90,1
WR Kevin Ogletree
WR Rueben Randle 2-30

Pregame Notes: What a difference some rest makes. The Giants were on a two game losing streak with Eli Manning throwing ducks and not scoring. Take their bye and come back and voila! everything is well. Other than Andre Brown of course who was lost for the season with a broken leg. The first game against the Redskins was right at the start of the offensive struggles for the Giants. This week we get to see if everything really is all better or not.

The biggest change is how the Giants will deal with the loss of Brown who scored eight touchdowns in his role as the "thunder" of the backfield. David Wilson is next on the depth chart and certainly should see some increase but he's been mostly a special teamer and is not nearly as big as Brown. Wilson is a decent replace for Bradshaw perhaps, but the role that the 6-0, 227 lb. Brown filled is not what the 5-10, 202 lb Wilson is going to do.

The Giants just signed Ryan Torain who should figure in at some point. With Bradshaw less than Mr. Durability, the depth chart for running backs are more important here than most teams. Brown scored in all but one game that he played and would receive up to a dozen carries in some games. He scored in the previous game with the Redskins but only gained 17 yards on five carries. Bradshaw also scored once and gained 43 yards on 12 runs and added 22 yards on four receptions.

Martellus Bennett had his best game of the year when he gained 79 yards on five catches against the Redskins. Hakeem Nicks was held to only 53 yards on five receptions that week while Victor Cruz ended with seven receptions for 131 yards and one score for one of his best efforts of the season.

The rushing effort should be downplayed this week since the Skins already handled them last time and Brown is out. As good as the Skins may be playing, they did just give up 441 yards and three scores to Tony Romo. Manning threw for 337 yards and one score in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 20 7 10 23 1 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,2
RB Alfred Morris 100 3-20
WR Pierre Garcon 5-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 3-50
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Skins are on a two game winning streak but apparently need to remain within their division to notch a victory. The last two wins - the Eagles and Cowboys - were preceded by a loss to the visiting Panthers. These last two games had at least 31 points in each and yet the two previous did not top 13. The good news - the Skins remain in the division again this week.

Robert Griffin III was on a down turn in his stats until these last two weeks. He threw for eight touchdowns over the first nine games and that included three times failing to score at all via the pass. But the last two games saw him throw four scores in each for the same total he needed nine games to attain. Griffin passed for 311 yards in Dallas but was rarely over 200 yards in the previous five weeks. Griffin's only good game in that time was against the Giants when he threw for 258 yards and two scores. He also rushed for 89 yards on nine carries.

Alfred Morris turned in a surprising 113 yards and one score in Dallas on 24 carries. It was his first score in five games and only his fourth time to surpass 100 rushing yards. Morris has no role as a receiver and derives his entire fantasy value via the run. In week seven, he gained a season high 120 yards on 22 runs while visiting the Giants.

The wide receiver crew continues to be a mish-mash of players that cannot offer enough production or reliability to merit much fantasy consideration. Santana Moss scored in four of the last five games and totals seven touchdowns on the season but almost never gains more than 50 yards in any game. The only real development here is that Pierre Garcon finally showed up a mere 11 weeks since his only decent game and posted five receptions for 93 yards and one score on the Cowboys during Thanksgiving Day.

Back in week seven, Moss caught both touchdown passes against the Giants and yet only ended with three catches for 67 yards in his best game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 6 29 15 12 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colt McCoy, WAS @DAL 0000020012 ***
McCoy's last fantasy-relevant start came... well, guess it depends on your definition of "fantasy-relevant". 151 and 2 back on November 27, 2011? 215 and 2 in October of that same season, or 350 and 1 the week before that? Suffice it to say it's been a while and the options are few. No reason to think McCoy offers much to fantasy owners this week as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @DAL 500000000 ****
Morris has faced the Cowboys four times, producing at least 80 yards and a touchdown in each matchup. Different offense, though with Colt McCoy at the helm you can expect the Redskins to lean heavily on their ground game. That worked well for Arian Foster against the Cowboys but not so much for any other back they've faced, so chill your expectations accordingly for Morris.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @DAL 005600000 **
Colt McCoy's presence under center likely flips the Redskins' receiving corps from long ball to possession game, which plays to Pierre's strengths. Of course, it may not even matter against a Dallas defense that's allowed just two WR TDs over the past month--both to Odell Beckham last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @DAL 004500000 **
Jackson is a deep threat without a deep ball quarterback, which makes him an extremely risky fantasy start in what is already a difficult matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS @DAL 004400000 **
Roberts' lone advantage would come as a possession type if the Redskins use DeSean Jackson to stretch the field. Given the tough matchup and change at quarterback, you can find more compelling fantasy options elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @DAL 007801000 **
Reed should see plenty of love from short-armed quarterback Colt McCoy in what looks to be a favorable matchup against a Dallas D that's already allowed seven TE TDs and four different tight ends to top 75 yards against them. So long as Niles Paul and Logan Paulsen don't steal too many targets, Reed remains a safe and solid fantasy option.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @DAL 3311 **
Forbath had double-digit points in both ends of last season's series, but this is an improved Dallas defense--and an offense with Colt McCoy at the helm.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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