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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NYG 34, WAS 27 (LINE: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: David Wilson

This is a replay of week seven when the Giants won 27-23. The Giants have a two game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. The Redskins come off two wins over the Cowboys and Eagles and could make a real statement with a win in this game. This game shows how far the Redskins offense has really come. And how much the defense has not.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 300,3
RB Peyton Hillis 20 2-10
RB Rashad Jennings 60
WR Victor Cruz 6-90,1
WR Rueben Randle 2-30

Pregame Notes: What a difference some rest makes. The Giants were on a two game losing streak with Eli Manning throwing ducks and not scoring. Take their bye and come back and voila! everything is well. Other than Andre Brown of course who was lost for the season with a broken leg. The first game against the Redskins was right at the start of the offensive struggles for the Giants. This week we get to see if everything really is all better or not.

The biggest change is how the Giants will deal with the loss of Brown who scored eight touchdowns in his role as the "thunder" of the backfield. David Wilson is next on the depth chart and certainly should see some increase but he's been mostly a special teamer and is not nearly as big as Brown. Wilson is a decent replace for Bradshaw perhaps, but the role that the 6-0, 227 lb. Brown filled is not what the 5-10, 202 lb Wilson is going to do.

The Giants just signed Ryan Torain who should figure in at some point. With Bradshaw less than Mr. Durability, the depth chart for running backs are more important here than most teams. Brown scored in all but one game that he played and would receive up to a dozen carries in some games. He scored in the previous game with the Redskins but only gained 17 yards on five carries. Bradshaw also scored once and gained 43 yards on 12 runs and added 22 yards on four receptions.

Martellus Bennett had his best game of the year when he gained 79 yards on five catches against the Redskins. Hakeem Nicks was held to only 53 yards on five receptions that week while Victor Cruz ended with seven receptions for 131 yards and one score for one of his best efforts of the season.

The rushing effort should be downplayed this week since the Skins already handled them last time and Brown is out. As good as the Skins may be playing, they did just give up 441 yards and three scores to Tony Romo. Manning threw for 337 yards and one score in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 20 7 10 23 1 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG ATL 0000024021 ***
Eli's on a roll now that he's settled into the Giants' new offense, with multiple TD tosses in three straight and his first 300-yard game since Week 5 of last year. An Atlanta defense that just served up 317 yards to Teddy Bridgewater in his first NFL start doesn't look to be much of an impediment.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG ATL 11012200000 ***
Plenty of opportunity for Jennings against a defense that's allowed multiple touchdowns to Matt Asiata and Mark Ingram, 135 yards to Jerick McKinnon, and more fantasy points to running backs than any other club.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Williams, NYG ATL 5012100000 ***
In three of four games the Falcons have allowed multiple backs to either score and/or top 100 rushing yards. With Williams expected to see an uptick in workload, he's at least worthy of fringe fantasy consideration here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG ATL 005701000 ***
Cruz has back-to-back 100-yard games and seems to be settling into the same offensive groove as Eli Manning--and that's a good thing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG ATL 006500000 ***
Randle has back-to-back 10-target games, so while he hasn't been much more than a fringe fantasy contributor as of yet he's certainly getting the opportunity to become one. This isn't a particularly difficult matchup; maybe it's the week Randle turns those targets into fantasy success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG ATL 007601000 ***
You can't stop Donnell, you can only hope to contain him. The Falcons haven't allowed a TE TD yet this season so they may be able to contain him, but averaging eight targets a game Donnell should still carve out enough yardage to be a fantasy helper.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG ATL 1144 ***
Brown has benefitted from an offense that's put up 75 points the past two weeks. With this game one of the higher totals on the Vegas board, looks like there should be ample opportunity for Brown to swing the leg again this week.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,2
RB Alfred Morris 100 3-20
WR Pierre Garcon 5-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 3-50
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Skins are on a two game winning streak but apparently need to remain within their division to notch a victory. The last two wins - the Eagles and Cowboys - were preceded by a loss to the visiting Panthers. These last two games had at least 31 points in each and yet the two previous did not top 13. The good news - the Skins remain in the division again this week.

Robert Griffin III was on a down turn in his stats until these last two weeks. He threw for eight touchdowns over the first nine games and that included three times failing to score at all via the pass. But the last two games saw him throw four scores in each for the same total he needed nine games to attain. Griffin passed for 311 yards in Dallas but was rarely over 200 yards in the previous five weeks. Griffin's only good game in that time was against the Giants when he threw for 258 yards and two scores. He also rushed for 89 yards on nine carries.

Alfred Morris turned in a surprising 113 yards and one score in Dallas on 24 carries. It was his first score in five games and only his fourth time to surpass 100 rushing yards. Morris has no role as a receiver and derives his entire fantasy value via the run. In week seven, he gained a season high 120 yards on 22 runs while visiting the Giants.

The wide receiver crew continues to be a mish-mash of players that cannot offer enough production or reliability to merit much fantasy consideration. Santana Moss scored in four of the last five games and totals seven touchdowns on the season but almost never gains more than 50 yards in any game. The only real development here is that Pierre Garcon finally showed up a mere 11 weeks since his only decent game and posted five receptions for 93 yards and one score on the Cowboys during Thanksgiving Day.

Back in week seven, Moss caught both touchdown passes against the Giants and yet only ended with three catches for 67 yards in his best game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 6 29 15 12 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS SEA 0000026021 ***
Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning put up numbers on Seattle's secondary; Cousins, we have learned, isn't quite there yet. The good news is that the Seahawks are a little less scary on the road, but it's still a matchup that you'll probably want to avoid.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS SEA 500000000 ***
Seattle has yet to allow a back to rush for more than 40 yards, only one RB TD on the year. However, they haven't faced a team willing to commit to a back as no runner has handled more than 14 carries. You get the feeling Morris will see at least that workload, which sets him up for at least a modicum of success. In this case, "modicum" means "little".
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Roy Helu, WAS SEA 2002200000 ***
Helu is the change of pace/pass catching back, but his opportunities will be limited against a Seattle defense that has yet to allow a back to produce more than 30 receiving yards in a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS SEA 007801000 ***
Garcon might see more Richard Sherman than either he or his fantasy owners desire, but he's physical enough to win his share of those battles. As the most consistently targeted Redskins receiver he warrants fantasy attention; however, the Sherman factor definitely mitigates his potential.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS SEA 003400000 ***
Jackson looked something less than fully healthy last Thursday. He's had a few extra days to heal up, which is good; he's facing the Seattle secondary, which is bad. If you're into the home runs you can still use DJax, but his miss rate is multiplied by the Sherman factor this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS SEA 004400000 ***
Yes, Roberts scored last week on his only catch. However, between Kirk Cousins' inconsistency, his presence behind Pierre Garçon and DeSean Jackson in the passing game pecking order, and a pretty doggone good Seattle secondary there's no reason to dig into the Redskins receiver depth this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS SEA 005601000 **
Jordan Reed has had success in this role; so has Niles Paul. With both regulars banged up, Paulsen gets the looks and a favorable opportunity against a Seattle defense that's allowed five TE TDs already this season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS SEA 2222 ***
Forbath has been wildly inconsistent, with a pair of double-digit games, a two point effort and a shutout. Doesn't feel like an incredibly lucrative opportunity to tack on points against an elite defense like Seattle's.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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