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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: NYG 34, WAS 27 (LINE: NYG by 2.5)

Players to Watch: David Wilson

This is a replay of week seven when the Giants won 27-23. The Giants have a two game lead over the Redskins and Cowboys in the NFC East. The Redskins come off two wins over the Cowboys and Eagles and could make a real statement with a win in this game. This game shows how far the Redskins offense has really come. And how much the defense has not.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS -----
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO -----
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL -----
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 300,3
RB Peyton Hillis 20 2-10
RB Rashad Jennings 60
WR Victor Cruz 6-90,1
WR Kevin Ogletree
WR Rueben Randle 2-30

Pregame Notes: What a difference some rest makes. The Giants were on a two game losing streak with Eli Manning throwing ducks and not scoring. Take their bye and come back and voila! everything is well. Other than Andre Brown of course who was lost for the season with a broken leg. The first game against the Redskins was right at the start of the offensive struggles for the Giants. This week we get to see if everything really is all better or not.

The biggest change is how the Giants will deal with the loss of Brown who scored eight touchdowns in his role as the "thunder" of the backfield. David Wilson is next on the depth chart and certainly should see some increase but he's been mostly a special teamer and is not nearly as big as Brown. Wilson is a decent replace for Bradshaw perhaps, but the role that the 6-0, 227 lb. Brown filled is not what the 5-10, 202 lb Wilson is going to do.

The Giants just signed Ryan Torain who should figure in at some point. With Bradshaw less than Mr. Durability, the depth chart for running backs are more important here than most teams. Brown scored in all but one game that he played and would receive up to a dozen carries in some games. He scored in the previous game with the Redskins but only gained 17 yards on five carries. Bradshaw also scored once and gained 43 yards on 12 runs and added 22 yards on four receptions.

Martellus Bennett had his best game of the year when he gained 79 yards on five catches against the Redskins. Hakeem Nicks was held to only 53 yards on five receptions that week while Victor Cruz ended with seven receptions for 131 yards and one score for one of his best efforts of the season.

The rushing effort should be downplayed this week since the Skins already handled them last time and Brown is out. As good as the Skins may be playing, they did just give up 441 yards and three scores to Tony Romo. Manning threw for 337 yards and one score in the first meeting.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 20 7 10 23 1 4
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @JAC 0000027021 ***
Hard to tell if the Jaguars are a decent pass D or their numbers are kept down because teams don't want to run up the score on them. The Giants may not have such a luxury, and Eli tends to put up good fantasy numbers regardless of foe so he's at least a serviceable fantasy start here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG @JAC 8014300000 ****
Jennings lost some red zone touches--and ultimately a touchdown--to Andre Williams last week. However, he still put together 120 yards from scrimmage and is a solid bet to continue that success against a Jacksonville D that's allowed two 100-yard rushers and four RB TDs in the past three games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Williams, NYG @JAC 300000000 ***
Williams did next to nothing when Rashad Jennings was out, then swiped a touchdown once Jennings was back in the mix. Hard to figure, and you certainly can't count on Williams as the Giants' backfield is definitely Jennings' gig.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham, NYG @JAC 0081002000 ****
After watching Beckham last week you get the feeling there's nothing he can't do. So he could certainly follow in the footsteps of TY Hilton (122 & 1 against Jacksonville last week) or Dez Bryant (158 & 2 against the Jags).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, NYG @JAC 006700000 ***
The Giants passing game has become Odell Beckham Jr.'s world, and Randle and others are just living in it. Jacksonville has allowed multiple fantasy helpers to WRs just once in the past seven games, so with Beckham taking his cut off the top it's tough to trust Randle for help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG @JAC 002200000 ***
The Jags have allowed only one TE TD in the past six games, and with Donnell sharing looks with Daniel Fells and Adrien Robinson it's tough to bank on him for a fantasy contribution here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG @JAC 2233 ***
The Jags could open the door for Brown, having already served up six double-digit points games this season. But would Brown know what to do? He's been between three and six points each of his past five games, no reason to think there's a big leap in store here.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG -----
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 50,1 250,2
RB Alfred Morris 100 3-20
WR Pierre Garcon 5-80,1
WR Santana Moss 4-50
WR Andre Roberts 3-50
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Skins are on a two game winning streak but apparently need to remain within their division to notch a victory. The last two wins - the Eagles and Cowboys - were preceded by a loss to the visiting Panthers. These last two games had at least 31 points in each and yet the two previous did not top 13. The good news - the Skins remain in the division again this week.

Robert Griffin III was on a down turn in his stats until these last two weeks. He threw for eight touchdowns over the first nine games and that included three times failing to score at all via the pass. But the last two games saw him throw four scores in each for the same total he needed nine games to attain. Griffin passed for 311 yards in Dallas but was rarely over 200 yards in the previous five weeks. Griffin's only good game in that time was against the Giants when he threw for 258 yards and two scores. He also rushed for 89 yards on nine carries.

Alfred Morris turned in a surprising 113 yards and one score in Dallas on 24 carries. It was his first score in five games and only his fourth time to surpass 100 rushing yards. Morris has no role as a receiver and derives his entire fantasy value via the run. In week seven, he gained a season high 120 yards on 22 runs while visiting the Giants.

The wide receiver crew continues to be a mish-mash of players that cannot offer enough production or reliability to merit much fantasy consideration. Santana Moss scored in four of the last five games and totals seven touchdowns on the season but almost never gains more than 50 yards in any game. The only real development here is that Pierre Garcon finally showed up a mere 11 weeks since his only decent game and posted five receptions for 93 yards and one score on the Cowboys during Thanksgiving Day.

Back in week seven, Moss caught both touchdown passes against the Giants and yet only ended with three catches for 67 yards in his best game of the year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 27 6 29 15 12 3

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colt McCoy, WAS @IND 30000023011 ***
Tough to see McCoy carving out fantasy value here. Indy's not nearly as soft a touch as the Cowboys, who McCoy threw for 299 yards and added a rushing touchdown against. If that's his upside, expectations should be lowered significantly here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @IND 9011100000 ***
Morris has 90-plus yards in three straight as the Redskins start to lean on him more. We've seen grinders have success against Indy--think of Jonas Gray's 37-201-4--and you have to believe the Washington game plan calls for a whole lot more Morris than it does Colt McCoy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Roy Helu, WAS @IND 1005500000 ***
Helu is still a viable option in larger PPR leagues, but his workload clearly takes a back seat to Alfred Morris--and that makes his fantasy value tenuous at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @IND 006800000 ***
Colt McCoy surprisingly kept DJax relevant during his brief tenure at the helm, so no need to write Jackson off this week just because you doubt Colt's arm.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @IND 003300000 ***
Garcon hasn't been fantasy relevant in a month and took a back seat to DeSean Jackson with Colt McCoy at the helm; we have no reason to think things will change here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS @IND 002300000 ***
Roberts is the third wheel on what is shaping up to be either a bicycle or maybe even a unicycle of a Washington passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Niles Paul, WAS @IND 002201000 **
The Colts have allowed four TE TDs in the past four weeks, and with Jordan Reed still hobbled Paul should see the bulk of the targets. The last time Colt McCoy was under center Washington TEs saw 10 targets, so it's a definite opportunity for Paul this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @IND 1122 ***
The Colts have allowed multiple field goal attempts just once in the last eight games and only twice all season, so Forbath isn't likely to have much of an opportunity to swing the leg this week.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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