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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Brady Quinn 10 180
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 2-10
RB Robert Turbin 3-20
WR Percy Harvin
WR Sidney Rice 4-50,1
WR Golden Tate 3-40
TE Zach Miller 4-40
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA STL 30000020011 ****
Wilson only passed for 160 yards and no scores in St. Louis for his worst fantasy game of the year. The Seahawks just want to win this and then not get anyone hurt so figure on Wilson only as an average play this week and really any week. He had four scores last week but only 171 yards. He ran for three touchdown in Buffalo but he had never scored on the ground before and only passed for 205 and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brady Quinn, SEA STL 0000018002 ***
Quinn has been shut out in four of his five starts, including 126 and zero against the Broncos. And you want to play him here why?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA STL 12011100000 ****
Lynch already ran for 20-118 and one score in St. Louis and he's on a four game scoring streak currently. They gave him 26 runs last week versus the 49ers and are resting him in practices. Lynch is an obvious safe start this week but if the Seahawks get a big lead, they'll be more inclined to rest Lynch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sidney Rice, SEA STL 004500000 ****
Rice is the preferred target for Wilson but is still banged up and only posted 4-41 in the last meeting with the Rams. Not a great start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, SEA STL 004400000 ***
Tate is far too inconsistent to merit any fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA STL 003301000 **
Miller scored in two of the last three and the Rams are good against wideouts. It makes Miller a little more interesting for a TD but his yardage is never much anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA STL 2233 ***
Hauschka has been golden in recent home games.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 220,1
RB Michael Bush 30,1 3-20
RB Matt Forte 60 4-20
WR Earl Bennett 2-20
WR Brandon Marshall 8-100,1
TE Martellus Bennett 5-60,1
PK Robbie Gould 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, CHI @DET 0000024021 ***
Sure, the Lions held Cutler to 150 and 1 in the earlier meeting. But Detroit has now allowed 30-plus points in four of the last five and 24 or more in seven straight and really only cares about getting their passing game some records. In other words, defense is even less of a priority than usual. With the Bears in must-win mode and Matt Forte banged up, Cutler might actually put up decent numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, CHI @DET 8015300000 ***
Forte says he'll play on his ankle injury in this must-win game for the Bears, and he has historically fared quite well against Detroit: 100 yards from scrimmage and/or a touchdown in each of his nine career meetings with the Lions. It would be nice, however, to see him get some practice time in this week before trusting him with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI @DET 0081201000 ***
Marshall needs 34 yards to reach 1,500; that's pretty much a given. In fact, 34 catches for the guy who could finish the season with 100 more catches than the next closest Bear wideout wouldn't be all that shocking. The Bears need to win, which means a heavy dose of Marshall once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI @DET 004501000 ***
If there's to be any leftovers after Brandon Marshall takes his 20 catches off the top, they'll go to Jeffery. Considering the Falcons saw both their talented wideouts find the end zone last week, Jeffery's not a bad play in a must-win game for the Bears.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, CHI @DET 004400000 ***
Bennett was held to just one catch in the earlier meeting with Philly, and Bear Pascoe stole his touchdown in that game. The Eagles haven't given up a TE TD in more than a month, yet another trend that makes Bennett a difficult at best fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Steve Maneri, CHI @DET 001100000 ***
With Tony Moeaki hurt, Maneri is the tight end of record in Kansas City. Or so we think; he hasn't seen a target since mid-October.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Olindo Mare, CHI @DET 2233 ***
The Bears need to win, the Lions give up tons of points, and the weather won't be a factor. Not a bad combo if you're in need of a kicker this week.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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