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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 90,1 2-10
RB Robert Turbin 3-20
TE Zach Miller 4-40
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @STL 30100020020 ***
Plenty of reasons to shrug off last week's disappointing showing against the Cowboys and get back in the saddle--to name two, Wilson's multiple TD track record prior to last week (as in, every game) and the Rams' multiple TD track record this season (as in, every game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA @STL 8004200000 ***
Lynch has a strong track record against the Rams: 100-plus yards in three of the last five, 88 or more rushing yards in five of the last six, and touchdowns in four of the last six meetings. The Rams have allowed only one RB TD on the year but gave up 100-plus yards to DeMarco Murray and Bobby Rainey. No reason Lynch can't keep to his appointed rounds in St. Louis this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ricardo Lockette, SEA @STL 001301000 **
Lockette has two of the three receiving TDs scored by Seahawk wideouts this year, which makes him a viable reach against a Rams' secondary that's surrendered seven WR TDs in the past three games. But it's always a risk mining the depths of a Seattle receiving corps that hasn't produced a double-digit fantasy game since Week 2, and only then because of Percy Harvin's rushing stats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA @STL 003301000 **
Kearse has the two biggest yardage games by a Seahawk receiver this year: 62 and 61. No Seattle wideout other than Percy Harvin has had a double-digit fantasy game, so while this is a favorable matchup the table scraps for non-Harvin Seahawks are scarce.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @STL 004600000 ****
While WRs against the Rams is a favorable matchup, the Seahawks don't tend to throw enough to make a secondary target like Baldwin a safe fantasy bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA @STL 002100000 ****
Assuming Miller returns from injury he's an unlikely candidate for fantasy help given that no Seattle TE has scored or topped 50 yards this season.
Update: Miller has been ruled out for this week due to his ankle injury. Not that you were banking on him for much anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA @STL 1133 ***
Hauschka's had just one off week in an otherwise solid season; the Rams have allowed double digits to three of the five kickers they've faced. Plenty of reason to like what Hauschka brings to the fantasy table this week.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 220,1
RB Matt Forte 60 4-20
WR Brandon Marshall 8-100,1
WR Josh Morgan 3-30
TE Martellus Bennett 5-60,1
PK Robbie Gould 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, CHI MIA 0000027031 ***
Cutler compensated for his first non-multiple TD outing of the year with a season-high 381 passing yards. He may not be Aaron Rodgers, but he's certainly capable of putting up something similar to the 264 and three the Dolphins gave up to Rodgers last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, CHI MIA 7006401000 ***
He's ba-ack! Triple-digit combo yardage in three straight, touchdowns in two straight... yep, no reason to fear Forte; his status as an every-week fantasy starter remains intact.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI MIA 006901000 ***
Over the past two games five different wideouts have scored and/or topped 75 yards against the Dolphins; no reason the Bears' dynamic duo can't post their usual fantasy helpers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI MIA 006801000 ****
Marshall looked healthy last week in posting 113 yards; if you'd bumped him behind Alshon Jeffery due to his ankle issues, go ahead and re-elevate him to 1A status. And a matchup with a Miami defense that's allowed five different wideouts to score or top 75 yards in the past two games should allow both to go off... again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, CHI MIA 004400000 ***
With both wideouts healthy Bennett is a little less likely to blow up. That said, against a Miami defense that's allowed TE TDs in four of five games this year he's a solid bet to help your fantasy bottom line.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, CHI MIA 2233 ****
Gould has yet to produced a double-digit point game, and yet he's averaging almost seven points per contest. Consistently okay, I guess.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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