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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
TE Jimmy Graham 8-70,1
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA SF 10000026020 ***
San Fran doesn't have the pass rush of LA, so Wilson should be able to fare a little better this week. Look for a nice rebound game to help jump-start his fantasy season. RW3 is a midrange QB1 in most formats this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Christine Michael, SEA SF 10014300000 **
Unless he finds the end zone, Michael is a fringe fantasy pick this week. The Niners have done a solid job against the position, albeit with so-so matchups, and rank as the fourth most difficult to face.

Update: Thomas Rawls is doubtful, which thrusts Michael into the primary role. He's a worthwhile RB2 and sound DFS value buy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA SF 006801000 **
Baldwin twisted his knee but appears closer to playing than not. He is a must-play when on the field, so check back Friday. San Fran ranks 18th against PPR wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA SF 004600000 ***
Lockett was temporarily removed from Week 2 play but came back late in the game. He's expected to play, but check the Friday injury report for reassurance. He'll see more balls if Doug Baldwin (knee) is limited. Regardless, Lockett has a minor sleeper appeal this week against the 18th-ranked WR defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA SF 004501000 **
The Niners have allowed TEs to catch a line of 8-139-1 in two games, primarily at the hands of Greg Olsen. Graham isn't ready, despite being on the field. Avoid him in standard formats if you can. Doug Baldwin's injury could force Seattle to target Graham more, however, so bravely take that chance in DFS contests.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA SF 1133 ***
This one should come down to far more extra point tries than field goal kicks. At least he's safe to make what he attempts.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 220,1
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brian Hoyer, CHI @DAL 0000023011 ***
There is no reason to chance it with Hoyer in Week 3. Dallas hosts Chicago on Sunday night and is the 12th easiest matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Langford, CHI @DAL 5012100000 **
The offense may fall squarely on his shoulders without Jay Cutler under center. The likely added volume is nice, but stacked boxes can negate the effectiveness. Langford faces the 12th most difficult matchup for running backs and may struggle if Brandon Hoyer cannot exploit the secondary. Tread with caution, and avoid him in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eddie Royal, CHI @DAL 004501000 ***
Royal should see an uptick in looks with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and Dallas' weak fantasy WR defense paying mind to Alshon Jeffery. That said, playing Royal is a tough pill to swallow for traditional leaguers. PPR only, and only if you must.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI @DAL 004600000 ***
Dallas may look to double Jeffery all day long and force Brian Hoyer to take the checkdowns to backs and tight ends. The 'Boys have given up 24 catches for 316 yards and a trio of TDs to receivers this season. Jeffery is a starter but with much lower expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kevin White, CHI @DAL 004300000 ***
White is basically a late-season rookie at this point in his young NFL journey. Now a quarterback change comes into play, and it's really difficult to put much stock in White at this time. The matchup is respectable, so there's that going for him, but White isn't an quality start in any situation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, CHI @DAL 004400000 ***
Miller has been been non-existent through two games (7-47-0). That could change against the fourth easiest matchup for fantasy tight ends. Only Cleveland has given up more catches to the position. Brian Hoyer doesn't have the downfield game of Jay Cutler, something that bodes well for Miller.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, CHI @DAL 1122 ***
Brian Hoyer can do some decent things on offense, so maybe Barth gets ample chances. However, it's not worth chancing.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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