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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: SEA 17, CHI 24 (LINE: CHI by 3)

Players Updated : Matt Forte, Michael Bush, Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Marshawn Lynch, Michael Bush

The Seahawks won 38-14 in Chicago last season. It was late in the year when the Bears were without Jay Cutler and lost five in a row. That very nearly happened again. The 8-3 Bears are 5-1 at home so far and the 6-5 Seahawks just never play well away from home and sport a 1-5 road record.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI -----
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 180,1
RB Marcel Reece 40 3-20,1
TE Jimmy Graham 8-70,1
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are playing a dangerous game. The two starting cornerbacks Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner have been suspended for four games because of violating the drug policy (Adderall) and they are appealing it. They will play this week for sure and may get it shortened. But if they don't it may end up extending to the playoffs which would be no time to be without your favorite cornerbacks. It may be a small distraction now and will have a big impact when it goes through.

Russell Wilson is on a string of two score games but his yardage is always lower than most and his worst two games of the year were on the road against good defenses (SF and STL). Wilson is always a good bet to remain below 200 yards unless the opposing secondary is below average.

Marshawn Lynch only gained 42 yards on 20 carries in Chicago last year but rushed in two touchdowns. He was held to 46 yards in Miami last week but was on a four game streak of 100+ yard games. The Bears rushing defense is very good but just allowed two rushing scores in Miami. This game is certain to be all about rushing and defense, so Lynch should at least get a decent volume of carries to work with and a chance for a score.

This will be a big challenge for Golden Tate and Sidney Rice. Charles Tillman has a chipped bone in his foot but has not been ruled out this week. He'll be a problem if he plays. Tate was on a three game scoring streak until last week in Miami. Both he and a Rice have been held to 50 yards or less for the last five weeks and really all year. The Seahawks either move via the rush or get good field position because of their defense. Wideouts factor in more as scoring plays than as possession receivers.

The Seahawks don't lose road games by much - but they almost always lose them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA CAR 20000028020 ***
Carolina has buckled down against quarterbacks in the last five weeks, giving up only 20.8 points per contest. Some of that success was based on weak passing matchups, though. Wilson was finding his stride until last week's road bump versus the Buccaneers. He's a fine start in Week 13.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA CAR 6013300000 ***
Running backs have thrashed Carolina through the air, accounting for 42 catches for 356 yards in the last five games. Not one of those grabs went for a touchdown, and only one of 88 rushing attempts has scored. Even if Rawls doesn't score, there should be yardage opportunities.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA CAR 007901000 ***
The Panthers have given up the second most catches per game to receivers, which has led to the 13th highest per-game yardage figure since Week 7. Carolina has given up so many receptions that allowing six TDs on 82 catches doesn't look as bad as the reality of six in five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA CAR 003400000 ***
Lockett is looking as explosive as ever, and he has deep-league appeal, as well as in DFS, for those looking to roll the dice. The Panthers have given up the fifth most fantasy points per game in PPR scoring over the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, SEA CAR 002300000 ***
Starting Kearse is throwing away a lineup spot. Avoid him in all leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA CAR 006701000 ***
This is squarely a mid-tier matchup for Graham. Carolina has allowed averages of 4.8 receptions and 52.4 yards since Week 7, with two of 24 catches going the distance.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Steven Hauschka, SEA CAR 1133 ***
The Panthers have given up the 14th most fantasy points, on average, to the position based on allowing the ninth most field goal attempts per outing since Week 7.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA -----
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 10 220,1
TE Logan Paulsen 5-50,1
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears got Jay Cutler back which is a good thing since the looming schedule is tough - Seattle this week and then three road games plus hosting the Packers. Unfortunately they may be without Matt Forte who twisted his ankle last week. Coupled with a pretty bad offensive line, it is a good thing that the defense alone is enough to win most games.

Jay Cutler only missed one game and though he only threw for 188 yards and a score last week, the game was well in hand and there was no need to pass. He completed his obligatory 12 passes to Brandon Marshall and called it a day. Cutler will need to not expose himself to the pass rush much this week with the Seahawks defense showing up. The Bears dodged a bullet with Cutler missing just one week.

Forte has not been ruled out and practices will clear up his status later in the week. Michael Bush is a capable replacement though not the receiver that Forte is or can he make the rushing gains. But he is a power runner with a nose for the end zone and should matchup well against the Seahawk. Armando Allen may help out a bit more but Bush will be taking pretty much the full load this week.

Alshon Jeffrey is back out with a knee scope and may not play the rest of the regular season. That makes the passing game once again all about Brandon Marshall and his obscene amount of targets every week. He's never had fewer than ten passes in a home game and the strangest part is that his best games often come against very good defenses. He has not scored in a home game since week seven though.

This will be all about defense with Forte ailing and Marshall standing alone as a receiver. Playing at home is a major advantage since the Seahawks are never as good away from Seattle. This stands a good chance of being the lowest scoring game of the week though I like a defensive score in this one.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Barkley, CHI SF 0000026021 *
Barkley tossed three TDs but two INTs in his starting debut last week. The Niners offer a great matchup to exploit. Quarterbacks have averaged 28.3 fantasy points per contest since Week 7, and this has the second highest overall opportunity index rating. That means Barkley would have to really stink to not post decent fantasy stats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI SF 11014300000 ***
How does a home tilt with fantasy's second most vulnerable defense of running backs sound? The Niners have given up the most PPR points by a wide margin, which comes from being the fourth worst at stopping RB touchdowns and second most lenient against the production of yardage over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquess Wilson, CHI SF 005701000 **
Wilson enjoyed a strong game last week with Matt Barkley chucking the ball, and it should continue against the 49ers' lowly pass defense. San Fran is the second best opportunity for points, which has translated to the third most PPR points scored per game since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cameron Meredith, CHI SF 004601000 ***
San Francisco has given up averages of the fourth most receptions (15.3), second most yards (217), and fifth most points per reception (3.1) in PPR since Week 7. Wideouts have scored once per 8.7 catches, which is the eight most efficient clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Daniel Brown, CHI SF 004500000 *
San Fran has been rock solid versus tight ends over the last five weeks, allowing only one touchdown on 18 grabs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, CHI SF 1144 ***
San Fran has allowed the most extra points by such a margin that ranking 11th in field goal attempts still makes this the highest combined ranking for opportunities.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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