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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: TB 20, DEN 27 (LINE: DEN by 8)

Players to Watch: Vincent Jackson

The Buccaneers slip to 6-5 after their loss in Atlanta but are 3-2 on the road. The 8-3 Broncos are 4-1 at home and on a six game winning streak. This should be an interesting game, but mostly because Manning goes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 240,2
RB Doug Martin 90 5-30
WR Vincent Jackson 4-60
WR Tiquan Underwood 2-30
WR Mike Williams 5-70,1
TE Dallas Clark 5-50,1
PK Connor Barth 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: After six straight games with multiple scores, it was a sad surprise to Josh Freeman owners to see him only gain 256 yards against the Falcons last week with no touchdowns. The Falcons have been rejuvenated by both the rushing of Doug Martin and the passing of Freeman. The Buccaneers did go through an incredibly kind stretch of games starting in week four and the passing stats reflected it. Fortunately there is only this week and the week 17 finale in Atlanta that should be a problem. Then again, winning right now is all about making your playoffs.

Doug Martin was held to only 50 yards on 21 runs by the Falcons but he still ended up with two touchdowns which gives him ten touchdowns on the season. One oddity with Martin is that he has only three games with over 100 yards. In those three, he scored seven of his touchdowns. And all three were road games. He's used heavily as a runner and a receiver which ensures solid production each week.

The Bucs are using the tight ends more in recent weeks and Dallas Clark not only scored in weeks 10 and 11, but his best two yardage games were the last two that he played - 7-58 in Carolina and 4-65 versus the Falcons.

The wideouts have been cranking out the big games at least for Vincent Jackson who topped 90 yards in each of the last two games despite playing good secondaries. Mike Williams really tailed off in the last two weeks but has been solid with 60+ yard games for most of the year. Williams would match on Champ Bailey but chances are they'll stick him on Vincent Jackson as much as they can since he's the one that does the most damage.

This is a really good test for the Buccaneers and another very good defense to face. There is no big weakness to exploit in Denver and since there is a distinct chance that Manning has fun against the Bucs poor secondary, this game will move to the air for the Bucs sooner than later.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 12 8 8 30 4 15

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, TB @ATL 0000026011 ***
Riding a five-game losing streak, about all the Bucs have going for them is that Atlanta is more concerned about resting regulars for the postseason than winning this game. Expect Freeman to get the 157 yards he needs for a 4,000-yard season, and probably even a little more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 10014300000 ***
The ROY award is out of reach, but Martin would still like to wrap up his first NFL season on a strong note. He scored twice in the earlier meeting with Atlanta, and he should see plenty of touches against a disinterested defense to pad his stat totals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, TB @ATL 005701000 ***
Whatever resources remain in the Atlanta secondary after the regulars have been benched will likely be focusing on Vincent Jackson. Williams has made a killing on similar situations all season, and he's in line to do so again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @ATL 004800000 ***
Jackson is a favored target of Josh Freeman, so with Freeman needing some yardage to crack 4K he'll continue to see his looks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tiquan Underwood, TB @ATL 002300000 ***
Underwood has been Tampa Bay's third man in in the passing game, but it hasn't constituted much in the way of fantasy help. Unless Vincent Jackson and/or Mike Williams get an early and extended breather, it probably won't help here either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dallas Clark, TB @ATL 004400000 ***
Clark hasn't been a huge focus in the Tampa Bay passing game, but he's veteran enough to know that he's either auditioning for more looks next year or putting together tape to show his next prospective employer.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, TB @ATL 2122 ***
Barth might get a few additional opportunities against a disinterested Atlanta defense, but that's hardly something to hang your fantasy hat on.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
DEN vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 330,3
RB Ronnie Hillman 20
RB Knowshon Moreno 60 4-20
WR Eric Decker 7-90,1
WR Brandon Stokley 5-50
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-110,1
WR Wes Welker 8-100,1
TE Joel Dreessen 2-20
TE Jacob Tamme 4-40,1
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Broncos already have a four game lead in the AFC West so that's in the bag. They still trail the Ravens by a game to get the coveted first round bye so that game in Baltimore in week 15 may be for a week off in January. There is no doubt that the Broncos will be heavily favored in all other games. With any luck, Denver wins in week 15 and then has to play it all out to maintain their #2 seed.

Peyton Manning is back at home this week and facing probably the weakest secondary so far this year. That's a good thing for a quarterback who has passed for more than 270 yards in each of the last nine games and almost always posts three passing scores when at home. This is going to be a nice time to own Manning... sort of like the rest of the year.

The only change on the Broncos has been replacing Willis McGahee. While Ronnie Hillman seemed a perfectly reasonable replacement since he was the #2 back, the went "another direction". Not only did they start Knowshon Moreno against the Chiefs, he was given 20 carries to gain 85 yards while Hillman was limited to just three runs for nine yards. Hill even was not thrown a pass for just the second time all year. Moreno sat in the shadows for the last ten weeks as a game day inactive but he's back to being a starting tailback. It's like the ghost of Shanahan still lives in Denver.

This week is even more of a must-start for Demaryius Thomas who Manning recently said needs the ball more. And for Eric Decker. In a pinch? Even Brandon Stokley may end up with more than his usual 50 yards. Thomas has six scores on the year including in both the most recent games. Thomas really shines when a bad secondary shows up and he should be a lock for a nice game that could be a monster. Decker should end up with a score as well though his possession role doesn't often add up to many yards.

The Buccaneers offense is good enough to post points and not allow Denver to feel comfortable without a pretty big lead. This is one of those dream fantasy matchups for the passing effort.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 7 17 2 6 15 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Peyton Manning, DEN KC 0000029020 ***
The Chiefs' pass defense has actually been quite good, and in their earlier meeting with Denver Peyton managed "only" 285 yards and two TDs. View that as a baseline, with KC playing out the string and the Broncos looking to lock down a high seed. Manning has multiple touchdowns in every home game this season, three in each of the last five. Oh, and it's one more opportunity to state his MVP case, or at least Comeback Player of the Year candidacy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knowshon Moreno, DEN KC 10015300000 ***
When these teams met earlier in the year Moreno topped 100 combo yards, and he's in line for another solid showing. However, for all their foibles (and their losses) the Chiefs have only given up nine RB TDs on the year so settle for yardage while Peyton handles the scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Wes Welker, DEN KC 0081001000 ****
Welker always like playing his old team and racked up 12-103 and one score in Miami already. He is a must start this week and a lock for a decent game that could be big.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN KC 005801000 ***
Thomas scored in the earlier meeting with KC, has 82 yards or better in four of his last five games, and should be on the business end of a few exclamation points to the end of Peyton Manning's MVP candidacy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, DEN KC 006701000 ***
While Decker is tracking as a WR2 or maybe WR1B to Demaryius Thomas, he's scored thrice in the past two games and is still a fantasy factor--especially with the Broncos needing to win for playoff seeding purposes and Peyton Manning needing to bolster his MVP case.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Stokley, DEN KC 004400000 ***
Stokley's 62 yards in the Week 12 meeting with KC is his high-yardage mark over the past three months, but he hasn't scored in more than a month and even with Peyton Manning making a push for MVP is an iffy play at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Joel Dreessen, DEN KC 003300000 ***
Dreessen has scored more recently, but Jacob Tamme found the end zone the last time Denver faced the Chiefs. So both--or neither--are good fantasy plays this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jacob Tamme, DEN KC 002200000 ***
Tamme tends to be the more productive member of Denver's TEBC, and he did score in the earlier meeting with the Chiefs. However, he was out-targeted by Joel Dreessen last week and has been outscored by Dreessen over the past month so there's no clear horse to back in this race.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DEN KC 1133 ***
Denver has 26 points or more in nine of their last 10 games--30 or more in eight of those, so there will be opportunities for Prater to swing the leg. Add in the rarified air for distance and Denver's desire to win and Prater is as solid a fantasy kicking option as you'll find this week.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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