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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

Prediction: TB 20, DEN 27 (LINE: DEN by 8)

Players to Watch: Vincent Jackson

The Buccaneers slip to 6-5 after their loss in Atlanta but are 3-2 on the road. The 8-3 Broncos are 4-1 at home and on a six game winning streak. This should be an interesting game, but mostly because Manning goes against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN -----
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 90 5-30
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 30 4-30
WR Vincent Jackson 4-60
WR Cecil Shorts 5-90,1
TE Brandon Myers 5-50

Pregame Notes: After six straight games with multiple scores, it was a sad surprise to Josh Freeman owners to see him only gain 256 yards against the Falcons last week with no touchdowns. The Falcons have been rejuvenated by both the rushing of Doug Martin and the passing of Freeman. The Buccaneers did go through an incredibly kind stretch of games starting in week four and the passing stats reflected it. Fortunately there is only this week and the week 17 finale in Atlanta that should be a problem. Then again, winning right now is all about making your playoffs.

Doug Martin was held to only 50 yards on 21 runs by the Falcons but he still ended up with two touchdowns which gives him ten touchdowns on the season. One oddity with Martin is that he has only three games with over 100 yards. In those three, he scored seven of his touchdowns. And all three were road games. He's used heavily as a runner and a receiver which ensures solid production each week.

The Bucs are using the tight ends more in recent weeks and Dallas Clark not only scored in weeks 10 and 11, but his best two yardage games were the last two that he played - 7-58 in Carolina and 4-65 versus the Falcons.

The wideouts have been cranking out the big games at least for Vincent Jackson who topped 90 yards in each of the last two games despite playing good secondaries. Mike Williams really tailed off in the last two weeks but has been solid with 60+ yard games for most of the year. Williams would match on Champ Bailey but chances are they'll stick him on Vincent Jackson as much as they can since he's the one that does the most damage.

This is a really good test for the Buccaneers and another very good defense to face. There is no big weakness to exploit in Denver and since there is a distinct chance that Manning has fun against the Bucs poor secondary, this game will move to the air for the Bucs sooner than later.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 12 8 8 30 4 15

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB @SD 10000028021 ***
While Winston isn't known for his running talents, he is more than capable of plunging into the end zone. San Diego has given up two such TDs in the last five weeks, helping make this the 14th best matchup from a points-allowed perspective. Removing those scores drops this to being the 22nd best. The Bolts have allowed the ninth most yards per completion to quarterbacks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @SD 6013200000 ***
Finding points on the ground shouldn't be too hard based on recent trends. In San Diego's last four games, running backs have scored four rushing touchdowns and a receiving score. The Chargers have given up only 76.3 rushing yards to backs in this time, but it is the fourth softest matchup for scoring touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @SD 0061101000 ***
While the Chargers present a statistically neutral matchup in Week 13, Evans has played way too well to expect anything less than another strong showing on his part. The Bolts have permitted three touchdowns over their last four contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @SD 005500000 ***
The Chargers have given up only three touchdowns to receivers over their last four games. This is a neutral matchup for PPR players that leans slightly to the positive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, TB @SD 003400000 ***
Shorts has one game with more than two catches in 2016; the odds are against him in any matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, TB @SD 003300000 ***
Shepard is no better than a high-risk gamble in DFS versus this neutral matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @SD 003301000 ***
The data suggests it will be a rough one for Brate, but he has a red zone presence about him, which gives gamers hope. San Diego rates as the 23rd hardest matchup for exploitation based on stats since Week 7.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Roberto Aguayo, TB @SD 2233 ***
San Diego has allowed the 12th most fantasy points per game to kickers over the last five weeks, mostly coming from point-after kicks. In those four games, only four total field goals were attempted.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB -----
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK -----
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL -----
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE -----
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-60
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-110,1

Pregame Notes: The Broncos already have a four game lead in the AFC West so that's in the bag. They still trail the Ravens by a game to get the coveted first round bye so that game in Baltimore in week 15 may be for a week off in January. There is no doubt that the Broncos will be heavily favored in all other games. With any luck, Denver wins in week 15 and then has to play it all out to maintain their #2 seed.

Peyton Manning is back at home this week and facing probably the weakest secondary so far this year. That's a good thing for a quarterback who has passed for more than 270 yards in each of the last nine games and almost always posts three passing scores when at home. This is going to be a nice time to own Manning... sort of like the rest of the year.

The only change on the Broncos has been replacing Willis McGahee. While Ronnie Hillman seemed a perfectly reasonable replacement since he was the #2 back, the went "another direction". Not only did they start Knowshon Moreno against the Chiefs, he was given 20 carries to gain 85 yards while Hillman was limited to just three runs for nine yards. Hill even was not thrown a pass for just the second time all year. Moreno sat in the shadows for the last ten weeks as a game day inactive but he's back to being a starting tailback. It's like the ghost of Shanahan still lives in Denver.

This week is even more of a must-start for Demaryius Thomas who Manning recently said needs the ball more. And for Eric Decker. In a pinch? Even Brandon Stokley may end up with more than his usual 50 yards. Thomas has six scores on the year including in both the most recent games. Thomas really shines when a bad secondary shows up and he should be a lock for a nice game that could be a monster. Decker should end up with a score as well though his possession role doesn't often add up to many yards.

The Buccaneers offense is good enough to post points and not allow Denver to feel comfortable without a pretty big lead. This is one of those dream fantasy matchups for the passing effort.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 7 17 2 6 15 3
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Paxton Lynch, DEN @JAC 0000021011 ***
Update: Trevor Siemian won't play, so the rookie starts his second game. Jacksonville is the third toughest opponent since Week 7 when it comes to allowing fantasy points to QBs. While the Jags have not picked off a pass in this time, quarterbacks have accounted for only six touchdown passes in five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Devontae Booker, DEN @JAC 6012100000 ***
Denver just has not been able to establish a running game since C.J. Anderson went down. Booker is talented, but the script hasn't played out as planned. The Jags present a reasonable shot at success. Running backs have averaged 104.8 rushing yards, 41.4 receiving yards, 4.6 catches and 24 PPR points since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN @JAC 005701000 ***
Bay Bay has an overall weak matchup but could find success in the way of touchdowns, as the Jags have surrendered one every 10.8 grabs since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN @JAC 005600000 ***
Sanders did his part last week in an explosive performance while the Chiefs blanketed Demaryius Thomas all night. This week, Jacksonville represents a difficult matchup on paper. The Jags have allowed the fewest catches and yards per game, as well as the least fantasy points on average, since Week 7. The upside is one of every 10.8 receptions have gone for scores, rating 12th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE AJ Derby, DEN @JAC 004301000 **
Derby is up to speed after a crash course in the offense. Jacksonville has allowed only 4.6 catches per game to tight ends over the past five weeks, but the Jags have given up 58 yards and a TD per every 11.5 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN @JAC 1122 ***
McManus faces an evenly favorable matchup -- the third best, in fact -- in Week 13. There isn't enough resistance on Jacksonville's side, though, to suggest we'll see many stalled drives resulting in three-point kicks.

WEEK 13
2012
NO at ATL (THU) *CLE at OAK *MIN at GB *SEA at CHI
*ARI at NYJ HOU at TEN NE at MIA *SF at STL
CAR at KC *IND at DET *PHI at DAL TB at DEN
*UPDATED *CIN at SD *JAC at BUF *PIT at BAL NYG at WAS (MON)

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