FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: ARI 0, SEA 24 Line (SEA by 10.5)

Players Updated: Ryan Lindley, John Skelton, Larry Fitzgerald

Players to Watch: Do Larry Fitzgerald a solid and don't watch

The 4-8 Cardinals continue to swirl down the drain with an eight game losing streak but amazingly opened the season with a win over these Seahawks. The even bigger problem is that the 7-5 Seahawks are an undefeated 5-0 at home and still have designs on making the playoffs if not challenge for the division.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ 6-7
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 260,2
RB Adrian Peterson 120,1 6-40
WR Larry Fitzgerald 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50,1
PK Phil Dawson 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: A brutal season just gets worse and worse with an eight game losing streak that does not appear likely to stop until maybe next year. Road trips to Seattle and San Francisco are bound to be painful and even the two home games go against the Lions and Bears. The offense has completely fallen apart and as an entire team in a sixty minute game, the Cards only gained 72 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. 40 of those rush yards came on a trick punt. So really the offense produced just a smidgen over 100 yards on the entire afternoon.

Ryan Lindley was never benched though he completed only 10 of 31 passes for 72 yards and one interception. Kevin Kolb remains out but the coaching staff doesn't want to use John Skelton. It doesn't matter in fantasy terms but the situation in Arizona could change during the week.

Beanie Wells only gained 22 yards on 15 carries in New York and LaRod Stephens-Howling was limited to only one run. Wells is back to being the plodding, injury-prone back that holds a job for no apparent reason. With a brutal set of defenses coming up, there is no reason to expect any changes for this year.

Worse yet, Larry Fitzgerald was the lead receiver last week because he caught one pass for 23 yards. That's all. Lindley has been so bad that even Fitzgerald can do nothing to help. Over the last three games, Fitzgerald has only caught a total of five passes and 65 yards. He's well on his way to his worst season in his career and at the age of 29 still has several good years ahead of him but his talent is absolutely squandered in Arizona. The offseason must conjure up a good quarterback because outside of Fitzgerald, all of the elements of this offense are so far below average that it's a wonder they play games. it has been nine games since the Cards were able to score 20 points in a game.

Forget what happened in the season opener. There is no fantasy value here on a good week and playing in Seattle may be about as back as it gets given that they know the Cardinals all too well and need to win. This is a decent set-up for a shutout.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blaine Gabbert, ARI @HOU 0000023021 *
Update: Gabbert was named the starter for this week with Drew Stanton on the mend, even though the latter is officially listed as questionable. Regardless, Gabbert is not a worthy fantasy play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, ARI @HOU 6002100000 ***
Houston has made it a tough row to hoe for running backs in the past five weeks. The position has averaged only 70.5 rushing yards and hasn't scored over the past four games, or 75 carries worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI @HOU 005701000 *
Fitz is quarterback proof, and the Texans have been anything but receiver proof. The position has gashed them for 228.3 yards and a TD every 7.7 receptions. Houston provides the best matchup, regardless of scoring format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI @HOU 002201000 *
Despite a wonderful matchup, Nelson is too fringe of a player to consider in anything but a deep DFS contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR John Brown, ARI @HOU 003400000 *
There is reason to like Brown as a flier this week. The Texans offer fantasy's best matchup in both scoring formats, and there will be plenty of attention paid to Larry Fitzgerald. Houston has given up the most yards per game and fourth-highest TD efficiency mark in football. Be aware of the suspect quarterback situation, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, ARI @HOU 002300000 *
The matchup is the best in both scoring formats, so maybe he could give you something in return. Chancing it isn't advised.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermaine Gresham, ARI @HOU 003301000 **
Houston has given up three TDs to the position in the last four games, which is more significant because the Texans have allowed one every seven catches. With Blaine Gabbert starting, Gresham could be a flier play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI @HOU 1122 ***
All of the 21 kicks against Houston (9 FGs) have split the posts. This is a top-five matchup for Dawson.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI 23-17
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 200,2
TE Jimmy Graham 7-70
PK Blair Walsh 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks remain in playoff contention with their overtime win in Chicago that was their most impressive effort this year. Easily. The Seahawks were stuck at winning all games at home but then losing on the road to all but the worst of teams. Beating the Bears will make a difference and is a confidence booster. Most importantly, it showcased the progress of Russell Wilson.

Wilson has been on a five game streak of throwing multiple touchdowns and the 293 yards in Chicago was also a personal best that tied his effort against the Patriots. Russell even added 71 rush yards last week on nine runs. His yardage still typically remains average at best thanks to running Marshawn Lynch but scoring more than once every week makes him fantasy relevant and even reliable. He's come a long way since opening the year with 153 yards and one score in Arizona.

Marshawn Lynch has also been on a roll with scores in four of the last five games and 98+ yards in all but one home game. He ran for 85 yards on 21 runs in the season opener versus the Cardinals and scored six times since.

Sidney Rice caught the game winner last week but was blasted on the play and remained down for several minutes. He has since cleared all concussion tests and will be available again this week. The progress made by Wilson has been almost entirely related to using his two starting wideouts better. Golden Tate scored four times over the last four games and comes off a career best 96 yards on five catches with one touchdown in Chicago. His last two home games combined for three scores. Rice scored five times over the last five games and also comes off a season best 99 yards on six catches with one score in Chicago.

By this point, the Seahawks have now provided several fantasy relevant players. Lynch remains one of the most consistent backs in the league and WIlson, Rice and Tate are all decent plays for at least average points though rarely anything considered big. The Cardinals defense has not left them yet and most teams no longer take them too seriously so the game scores typically remain on the low side from what could be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA ATL 0000027021 ***
Atlanta has held quarterbacks to just 194 yards, which is the third fewest in football. The matchup, luckily for Wilson, is inflated by two rushing TDs against, in addition to the six passing scores in the last four games. The Falcons have one interception. Wilson averaged 19.2 fantasy points in two meetings last season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB J.D. McKissic, SEA ATL 2004300000 ***
Atlanta has ceded 5.6 catches for just 35 yards to running backs since Week 5. One of those 28 snares has scored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Thomas Rawls, SEA ATL 4002100000 ***
Not a good time to trust Rawls ... one of the last 122 carries and one of 28 receptions have scored. No team has been stingier at allowing rushing scores. The "highlight" is this being the 14th-worst defense for rushing yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, SEA ATL 300000000 *
Lacy's status is unclear, and even when it is clear, steer clear.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA ATL 006801000 ***
It was a mixed bag in two games last year vs. the Falcons. Baldwin was held to 7.1 PPR points in Week 6 and went for 5-80-1 in the playoff matchup. Since Week 5, Atlanta has limited receivers to 9.8 catches per contest. This ranks seventh-hardest. Correspondingly, the yardage figure has been limited as the seventh-lowest, too. Baldwin has a decent shot at a defense permitting a WR TD every 12.3 snares, so there is at least that upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA ATL 003501000 ***
Richardson saw action in the playoff meeting in 2016 and went for 83 yards on four balls. The Falcons have been rock-solid vs. WRs in the past five games, giving up the seventh-fewest fantasy points in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA ATL 002300000 ***
Atlanta has allowed receivers to average 9.8 catches (26th), 120.6 yards (26th) and a TD every 12.3 grabs (14th). Last year, in two meetings with Atlanta, Lockett failed to be healthy enough to play in the second contest. He went for 23 yards in Week 6 that season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA ATL 005400000 ***
Only three teams have been stronger vs. tight ends. Atlanta has permitted just one TD in the last five games and only 36 yards per contest in this time. Both of those are bottom-five figures. Graham posted a combined 26.2 PPR points in two games vs. the Falcons last year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA ATL 3333 ***
Of the 21 total kicks faced, nine of 12 field goals connected. This is a routine matchup overall, but giving up 2.4 three-pointers per contest is at least mildly encouraging. Now if only Walsh could hit one of those pesky field goals....

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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