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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: ARI 0, SEA 24 Line (SEA by 10.5)

Players Updated: Ryan Lindley, John Skelton, Larry Fitzgerald

Players to Watch: Do Larry Fitzgerald a solid and don't watch

The 4-8 Cardinals continue to swirl down the drain with an eight game losing streak but amazingly opened the season with a win over these Seahawks. The even bigger problem is that the 7-5 Seahawks are an undefeated 5-0 at home and still have designs on making the playoffs if not challenge for the division.

Arizona Cardinals
Homefield: University of Phoenix Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SEA 20-16 10 BYE -----
2 @NE 20-18 11 @ATL 19-23
3 PHI 27-6 12 STL 17-31
4 MIA 24-21 13 @NYJ 6-7
5 @STL 3-17 14 @SEA -----
6 BUF 16-19 15 DET -----
7 @MIN 14-21 16 CHI -----
8 SF 3-24 17 @SF -----
9 @GB 17-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 260,2
RB Chris Johnson 100,1 4-30
WR Larry Fitzgerald 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-50,1
PK Phil Dawson 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: A brutal season just gets worse and worse with an eight game losing streak that does not appear likely to stop until maybe next year. Road trips to Seattle and San Francisco are bound to be painful and even the two home games go against the Lions and Bears. The offense has completely fallen apart and as an entire team in a sixty minute game, the Cards only gained 72 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. 40 of those rush yards came on a trick punt. So really the offense produced just a smidgen over 100 yards on the entire afternoon.

Ryan Lindley was never benched though he completed only 10 of 31 passes for 72 yards and one interception. Kevin Kolb remains out but the coaching staff doesn't want to use John Skelton. It doesn't matter in fantasy terms but the situation in Arizona could change during the week.

Beanie Wells only gained 22 yards on 15 carries in New York and LaRod Stephens-Howling was limited to only one run. Wells is back to being the plodding, injury-prone back that holds a job for no apparent reason. With a brutal set of defenses coming up, there is no reason to expect any changes for this year.

Worse yet, Larry Fitzgerald was the lead receiver last week because he caught one pass for 23 yards. That's all. Lindley has been so bad that even Fitzgerald can do nothing to help. Over the last three games, Fitzgerald has only caught a total of five passes and 65 yards. He's well on his way to his worst season in his career and at the age of 29 still has several good years ahead of him but his talent is absolutely squandered in Arizona. The offseason must conjure up a good quarterback because outside of Fitzgerald, all of the elements of this offense are so far below average that it's a wonder they play games. it has been nine games since the Cards were able to score 20 points in a game.

Forget what happened in the season opener. There is no fantasy value here on a good week and playing in Seattle may be about as back as it gets given that they know the Cardinals all too well and need to win. This is a decent set-up for a shutout.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 26 30 16 28 25 13
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 4 12 2 7 5 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Palmer, ARI DAL 0000024021 ***
After not giving up a TD to Eli Manning, Dallas was assaulted four times by Trevor Siemian. The Cowboys secondary is an injury-marred mess at the moment. Palmer should throw it a bunch in this contest. Play him without a better option present.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, ARI DAL 600000000 ***
The Cards may give him more work this week. Johnson doesn't see much work in the passing game and isn't an ideal red zone choice. Dallas has allowed just under 100 yards rushing per game and only one TD to RBs on the ground so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Andre Ellington, ARI DAL 1003300000 ***
Ellington has a good matchup, so there's that going for him, but little else. Too few touches makes him a sketchy fantasy choice.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kerwynn Williams, ARI DAL 200000000 ***
Williams isn't a trustworthy fantasy choice in any format. Chris Johnson should have a larger role this week, and Dallas isn't a total slouch against the position. Williams shouldn't be counted on without showing more.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI DAL 006701000 ***
Dallas is facing a mess of backend injuries on defense, which bodes well for Fitz to get on track with a big day. Even after blanketing the Giants receivers in Week 1, Dallas still rates as a top-12 opponent to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR J.J. Nelson, ARI DAL 005601000 ***
In non-PPR, Nelson is the No. 2 scorer through two weeks among wideouts. Dallas will focus more on stopping Fitz, which makes Nelson a viable play in all formats. The Cowboys were decimated by injuries in the secondary last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jaron Brown, ARI DAL 004400000 ***
Brown is a role player who at least has a good matchup against a Dallas secondary that has been brutalized by injuries.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, ARI DAL 2222 ***
Dallas has allowed only two field goal attempts this year. The six XPAs against rank in the top five of the most yielded by any team.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI 23-17
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI -----
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF -----
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 200,2
TE Jimmy Graham 7-70
PK Blair Walsh 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks remain in playoff contention with their overtime win in Chicago that was their most impressive effort this year. Easily. The Seahawks were stuck at winning all games at home but then losing on the road to all but the worst of teams. Beating the Bears will make a difference and is a confidence booster. Most importantly, it showcased the progress of Russell Wilson.

Wilson has been on a five game streak of throwing multiple touchdowns and the 293 yards in Chicago was also a personal best that tied his effort against the Patriots. Russell even added 71 rush yards last week on nine runs. His yardage still typically remains average at best thanks to running Marshawn Lynch but scoring more than once every week makes him fantasy relevant and even reliable. He's come a long way since opening the year with 153 yards and one score in Arizona.

Marshawn Lynch has also been on a roll with scores in four of the last five games and 98+ yards in all but one home game. He ran for 85 yards on 21 runs in the season opener versus the Cardinals and scored six times since.

Sidney Rice caught the game winner last week but was blasted on the play and remained down for several minutes. He has since cleared all concussion tests and will be available again this week. The progress made by Wilson has been almost entirely related to using his two starting wideouts better. Golden Tate scored four times over the last four games and comes off a career best 96 yards on five catches with one touchdown in Chicago. His last two home games combined for three scores. Rice scored five times over the last five games and also comes off a season best 99 yards on six catches with one score in Chicago.

By this point, the Seahawks have now provided several fantasy relevant players. Lynch remains one of the most consistent backs in the league and WIlson, Rice and Tate are all decent plays for at least average points though rarely anything considered big. The Cardinals defense has not left them yet and most teams no longer take them too seriously so the game scores typically remain on the low side from what could be.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 25 15 22 26 27 22
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 5 9 16 3 15 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA @TEN 40000023010 ***
It has not been a fantasy-friendly start to the year for RW3. The offensive line is a mess, and the running game is still finding its way. Wilson is a shaky play on the road against a Titans team allowing 1.5 quarterback TDs per game so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Carson, SEA @TEN 7001100000 ***
RBs have fared moderately against the Titans in two games -- 172 yards and a TD later, this is a midrange matchup. Carson doesn't offer much as a receiver, and Tennessee has been pretty good in this area anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Prosise, SEA @TEN 1003200000 ***
The Titans have bottled up RBs of the pass-catching variety. Avoid Prosise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Lockett, SEA @TEN 003401000 **
The Titans have given up 28 receptions and three of those resulted in six points for the enemy. Lockett needs a TD to salvage a starting investment in a lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA @TEN 005600000 ***
Amari Cooper, Seth Roberts and Allen Hurns all have scored versus the Titans in 2017. Otherwise, Tennessee has done fairly well at containing the position. Baldwin's projection could turn out on the low side if Russell Wilson has time to pass.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Richardson, SEA @TEN 004500000 ***
Only four teams have given up more PPR points per game to wideouts this year, and one of those teams played a single game. The Titans have been most damaged by permitting three trips to paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jimmy Graham, SEA @TEN 003200000 *
Graham posted a stinker in Week 2, and it may not be much better against a Titans team that has allowed only five TE catches for 56 yards in two games.

Update: He's listed as questionable with an ankle injury but is expected to play, per Pete Carroll.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, SEA @TEN 2211 ***
Kickers have made all five field goal kicks and three extra points facing the Titans thus far.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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