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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: BAL 24, WAS 20 Line: (Pick)

Players to Watch: Ray Rice, Robert Griffin III

The 9-3 Ravens dropped an important game to the Steelers but are 4-2 in road games. The 6-6 Redskins are on a three game winning streak but each went against a divisional opponent.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT 20-23
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 220,2
RB Justin Forsett 20 2-10
RB Bernard Pierce 20
WR Steve Smith 6-80,1
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
TE Owen Daniels 4-50,1
TE Dennis Pitta 4-30,1
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Ray Lewis may return to practice this week but he remains on the new IR and might be back to play in week 15. Terrell Suggs tore his triceps last week but has not been ruled out. The Ravens defense has been dominating in most games and held half of their previous opponents to only one offensive touchdown. The biggest concern this week is that the offense has sputtered every time it leaves Baltimore and the offensive play calling has been a head scratcher lately.

Joe Flacco continues to play out his disappointing season that has only thrown nine touchdowns over the last nine games and while he has a few 300 yard efforts, almost half his games end up with under 200 passing yards. Over six road games this year, Flacco has only thrown four touchdowns and never more than one per game.

The fantasy community has issued a common question asked by every Ray Rice owner - "what the hell?"

Rice was only given 12 carries in the loss to the Steelers though he scored once and gained 78 yards. Bernard Pierce really stepped up his workload with eight runs last week though he only gained 34 yards. Pierce ran nine times in San Diego the week prior when Rice was give 22 runs for 97 yards. Odder still was that Rice had five catches for 53 yards in the first meeting with the Steelers just three weeks ago and then only had one catch for five yards last Sunday. This all makes predicting what Rice will do very hard since his role is unrelated to his success. Coming off a great 2011 season, Rice has been mostly a disappointment this year and too rarely a difference maker.

The Ravens receivers are nothing special thanks mostly to Flacco and the play calling. Anquan Boldin scored against the Steelers but it was his first since the season opener. Torrey Smith came into the year with much promise and while he has scored in five games and topped 100 yards twice, he is just as inconsistent as the offense around him. He's not only been as bad as one catch for seven yards and as good as seven catches for 144 yards, but those came in consecutive weeks. It all makes projecting a tough call but at least this week they will face the Redskins and their bad secondary.

Don't over value what happened with the Redskins the last three weeks inside their own division every time. This is a game where Flacco must take advantage and Rice reprise at least his role as a receiver.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 18 11 14 18 5 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL ATL 0000027020 ****
Flacco rolls into this matchup off a five-TD, 306-yard performance and should continue the hot streak against a Falcons' secondary that's given up 300 yards in two of their last three outings--and in the other they allowed their only multiple TD-passing game of the season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Justin Forsett, BAL ATL 6004301000 ****
Forsett has settled in as the Ravens' most effective back, if not the most heavily used. He's scored or topped 100 yards in three straight, but his biggest impact this game might come as a receiver against an Atlanta defense that's allowed four different backs to top 50 receiving yards already this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bernard Pierce, BAL ATL 8011100000 ***
Pierce saw more touches than other Baltimore backs last week and found the end zone for the first time this season. However, he averaged just over two yards per carry and the volume may have come thanks to the 30-plus point lead the Ravens enjoyed most of the afternoon. Start him because the Falcons have served up 11 RB rushing scores already this year, but limit expectations because if he continues to languish at two yards per carry the Ravens won't hesitate to give more carries to Justin Forsett or go to the bullpen for Lorenzo Taliaferro.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Steve Smith, BAL ATL 0061001000 ****
Smith's been a monster this season, and there's no reason to think an Atlanta secondary that has consistently allowed multiple receivers to post helpful fantasy numbers against them will shut down Joe Flacco's favorite target.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, BAL ATL 003400000 ****
The Falcons have allowed multiple receivers to score and/or top 50 yards in every game this season, so with Joe Flacco on a roll you can expect Torrey's semi-resurgence to continue--at least enough to make him a viable fantasy option this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Owen Daniels, BAL ATL 004400000 ****
Daniels has yet to blossom into Dennis Pitta's role in this offense, so a big fantasy day looks unlikely against an Atlanta defense that has yet to surrender a TE TD on the season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL ATL 2233 ****
Tucker's averaging better than 10 points a game over the past five, while the Falcons have served up at least 8 (and an average of almost 12) over the past three. Good opportunity for Tucker to get his kicks this week.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 30 240,1
RB Alfred Morris 70,1
WR Pierre Garcon 5-80,1
WR Santana Moss 2-30
WR Andre Roberts 4-50
TE Logan Paulsen 1-20
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Maybe it was the rest from the week ten bye. Maybe it was just facing the weak NFC East. But for three weeks now, the Skins are winning games and getting much better production from all facets of the offense. One must suffer through a constant barrage of RG3-love by announcers to watch their games, but a lackluster team has finally reached .500 on the season with the promise of ending on a high note since they'll face the Eagles and Cowboys again in the final two weeks. This game is clearly their biggest challenge left on the schedule.

Robert Griffin III has four game left to play and has already set the record for rushing yards by a rookie quarterback with 714 yards, breaking the record of 706 yards set just last year by Cam Newton. RG3 rolled up eight passing scores against the Cowboys and Eagles but settled for just one last week and only 163 pass yards as well. He currently has 17 passing touchdowns on the year against only four interceptions. He's managed to avoid facing a good defense this year other than the Steelers who held him to 177 yards and one score as a passer and just eight yards as a rusher. This week will be interesting given the apparent breakthrough of the last three weeks.

Alfred Morris is on a two game stretch of 100+ rushing yard efforts but he's been much less productive in previous efforts and he has just six receptions on the year. Morris is a play for moderate rush yards in most weeks and scored only once in the last six games.

The receivers for the Redskins remain a mish-mash of mediocrity though Pierre Garcon is trying to change that with a score and 85+ yards in each of the last two games. He's roared back after missing eight games this year and apparently killed off Santana Moss who was scoring the best and yet never had a pass last week. Garcon is a must start now but no other wideouts or tight ends are.

Griffin has a chance to really cement his rookie season as a wild success with a win here. He's been largely average as a passer but added plenty of stick-moving rushing to the equation. Then he was a great passer for two weeks. Now he faces a top defense and gets a chance to prove himself outside of his own division.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 8 20 12 9 28 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS TEN 0000032021 ***
The last three QBs to face Tennessee have all thrown for 292 yards or better, averaging 340 and better than two TDs per outing. And we're not talking upper echelon QBs here, as that group includes Brian Hoyer and Blake Bortles. No reason Cousins, who himself has 250 yards or better in every outing this year and is averaging 330 yards per start, can't go off again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS TEN 601000000 ***
Morris hasn't hit the century mark yet this season, in part because his volume of touches is down and in part because of Jay Gruden's more pass-happy offense. Still, it's a favorable matchup against a Titans defense that's allowed four RB TDs in its past two road games and 100 yards or a score to five straight feature backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS TEN 0051001000 ****
WR1s have done some damage to the Titans, and Jackson certainly appears to have blown past Pierre Garçon to claim that honor in DC. He's had back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown against solid secondaries; shouldn't be a problem for him to do the same in a more favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS TEN 006700000 ***
Garçon's volume has taken a hit as DeSean Jackson has emerged in the Kirk Cousins-led Washington passing game. He's still a solid option, but expectations need to be kept in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS TEN 005400000 ***
Roberts has become a sneaky PPR play in the pass-heavy Washington attack. However, most of the damage against Tennessee's secondary is coming at the hands of WR1s so wait for a more favorable matchup to plug Andre into your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS TEN 006801000 ****
Washington tight ends kept Reed's role in the offense plenty warm, so it wasn't at all shocking to see Reed return to 11 targets and 8-92 in his first game back from injury. He's a great play this week against a Titans defense that's allowed TE TDs in three straight games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS TEN 1133 ***
Forbath has been hit or miss this year, and the Titans aren't a favorable enough matchup to bank on the "hit".

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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