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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: BAL 24, WAS 20 Line: (Pick)

Players to Watch: Ray Rice, Robert Griffin III

The 9-3 Ravens dropped an important game to the Steelers but are 4-2 in road games. The 6-6 Redskins are on a three game winning streak but each went against a divisional opponent.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT 20-23
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS -----
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN -----
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL @ WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 220,2
RB Danny Woodhead 10 4-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 5-60
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1
TE Benjamin Watson 5-60
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Ray Lewis may return to practice this week but he remains on the new IR and might be back to play in week 15. Terrell Suggs tore his triceps last week but has not been ruled out. The Ravens defense has been dominating in most games and held half of their previous opponents to only one offensive touchdown. The biggest concern this week is that the offense has sputtered every time it leaves Baltimore and the offensive play calling has been a head scratcher lately.

Joe Flacco continues to play out his disappointing season that has only thrown nine touchdowns over the last nine games and while he has a few 300 yard efforts, almost half his games end up with under 200 passing yards. Over six road games this year, Flacco has only thrown four touchdowns and never more than one per game.

The fantasy community has issued a common question asked by every Ray Rice owner - "what the hell?"

Rice was only given 12 carries in the loss to the Steelers though he scored once and gained 78 yards. Bernard Pierce really stepped up his workload with eight runs last week though he only gained 34 yards. Pierce ran nine times in San Diego the week prior when Rice was give 22 runs for 97 yards. Odder still was that Rice had five catches for 53 yards in the first meeting with the Steelers just three weeks ago and then only had one catch for five yards last Sunday. This all makes predicting what Rice will do very hard since his role is unrelated to his success. Coming off a great 2011 season, Rice has been mostly a disappointment this year and too rarely a difference maker.

The Ravens receivers are nothing special thanks mostly to Flacco and the play calling. Anquan Boldin scored against the Steelers but it was his first since the season opener. Torrey Smith came into the year with much promise and while he has scored in five games and topped 100 yards twice, he is just as inconsistent as the offense around him. He's not only been as bad as one catch for seven yards and as good as seven catches for 144 yards, but those came in consecutive weeks. It all makes projecting a tough call but at least this week they will face the Redskins and their bad secondary.

Don't over value what happened with the Redskins the last three weeks inside their own division every time. This is a game where Flacco must take advantage and Rice reprise at least his role as a receiver.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 18 11 14 18 5 5
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 31 10 32 31 22 2

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL @JAC 0000018011 ***
The Jags have been a formidable opponent through two games, carrying over from last year's success. Flacco is still finding his groove and could face extra pressure upfront this week. He's a suspect fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Javorius Allen, BAL @JAC 7015300000 ***
Look for Allen to be ridden heavily in this one. The Ravens may be without Terrance West, and Alex Collins barely knows the playbook. Jacksonville presents a good matchup for ground success but little out of the backfield for PPR scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terrance West, BAL @JAC 401000000 *
West has an undisclosed soft-tissue injury and didn't practice Wednesday.

Update: West (calf) was a full participant Friday and is listed as questionable. He should play but see limited touches while sharing with Buck Allen. There's always an outside chance West is used near the goal line, so he has some utility.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, BAL @JAC 003301000 **
Maclin draws a top-five defense of his position, one that has allowed only 15 receiver catches and a TD in two games. He is the best bet of this receiving corps, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Breshad Perriman, BAL @JAC 002200000 ***
A smothering matchup for a one-trick pony doesn't sound appealing. Avoid Perriman in all normal situations for conventional gaming.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, BAL @JAC 001100000 ***
Jacksonville has given up just 15 catches to wideouts in two games, and only one has found the end zone. Wallace is on the verge of having no fantasy worth based on Jeremy Maclin's arrival and the low volume of passing in Baltimore.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Benjamin Watson, BAL @JAC 005500000 **
The ageless veteran enjoyed a nice PPR showing in Week 2, and it could be followed up with another decent game. The Jaguars have granted a six receptions and 75.5 yards per game, plus one TD in two games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL @JAC 2222 ***
Kickers have gone a perfect 5-for-5 on TD-cappers and nailed two of three when facing the Jags this year. Tucker is always a fine start based on potential and an offense that lacks an explosive element.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL -----
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE -----
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 5-60

Pregame Notes: Maybe it was the rest from the week ten bye. Maybe it was just facing the weak NFC East. But for three weeks now, the Skins are winning games and getting much better production from all facets of the offense. One must suffer through a constant barrage of RG3-love by announcers to watch their games, but a lackluster team has finally reached .500 on the season with the promise of ending on a high note since they'll face the Eagles and Cowboys again in the final two weeks. This game is clearly their biggest challenge left on the schedule.

Robert Griffin III has four game left to play and has already set the record for rushing yards by a rookie quarterback with 714 yards, breaking the record of 706 yards set just last year by Cam Newton. RG3 rolled up eight passing scores against the Cowboys and Eagles but settled for just one last week and only 163 pass yards as well. He currently has 17 passing touchdowns on the year against only four interceptions. He's managed to avoid facing a good defense this year other than the Steelers who held him to 177 yards and one score as a passer and just eight yards as a rusher. This week will be interesting given the apparent breakthrough of the last three weeks.

Alfred Morris is on a two game stretch of 100+ rushing yard efforts but he's been much less productive in previous efforts and he has just six receptions on the year. Morris is a play for moderate rush yards in most weeks and scored only once in the last six games.

The receivers for the Redskins remain a mish-mash of mediocrity though Pierre Garcon is trying to change that with a score and 85+ yards in each of the last two games. He's roared back after missing eight games this year and apparently killed off Santana Moss who was scoring the best and yet never had a pass last week. Garcon is a must start now but no other wideouts or tight ends are.

Griffin has a chance to really cement his rookie season as a wild success with a win here. He's been largely average as a passer but added plenty of stick-moving rushing to the equation. Then he was a great passer for two weeks. Now he faces a top defense and gets a chance to prove himself outside of his own division.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 1 22 12 19 14 7
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 8 20 12 9 28 4

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS OAK 10000023010 ***
Versus quarterbacks, Oakland has ceded 20.4 fantasy points, on average, this year. Remove a rushing TD and this becomes a roundly mediocre matchup rating. Cousins is a low-end starter for desperate owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Samaje Perine, WAS OAK 301000000 *
Update: With Rob Kelley ailing, Perine should be more involved. He wasn't exactly effective last week coming off the bench, so keep your expectations at a minimum.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS OAK 3004300000 ***
Thompson has been brilliant through two contests, and it should earn him a larger share of the workload, particularly so if Rob Kelley cannot play. Beware, Oakland has been masterful against running backs of all types to date this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rob Kelley, WAS OAK 500000000 *
Kelley is dealing with a rib injury and may not suit. He practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday, which is encouraging. The offense would turn over to rookie Samaje Perine if Kelley cannot go. This will be a pain tolerance issue. The Raiders have allowed the third fewest points and zero touchdowns to RBs in two games.

Update: Kelley is a game-time decision. He has been limited all week and should be on a snap count, if he dresses. Avoiding him is wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., WAS OAK 005601000 **
Pryor is clearly still a work-in-progress at wideout, and chemistry with Kirk Cousins seems to be slow to develop. Wideouts have posted 26 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks against the Raidahs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS OAK 005500000 ***
This season hasn't started off with a bang for Crowder after a hip injury slowed him in Week 1. Oakland has given up a TD every 13 receptions so far, helping create the 13th easiest opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS OAK 004400000 *
Reed is day-to-day with a chest bruise that was originally feared to be a shoulder separation. He's a risky play, and gamers should check back later in the week to be safe. Oakland hasn't allowed a TE to score on nine catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS OAK 2222 ***
The Raiders have held kickers to just three extra points but 5-for-6 on distance kicks, which has translated to this being a top-10 matchup for the position.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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