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David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: CHI 27, Adrian Peterson 20 (Line:CHI by 3)

Players Updated: Earl Bennett, Michael Bush

Players to Watch: Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson

The 8-4 Bears travel to Minnesota with a 3-2 road record and face the 6-6 Vikings who are on a two game losing streak. This is a replay of week 12 - just two games ago - when the Bears won handily 28-10 in Chicago.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA 17-23
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN -----
6 BYE ----- 15 GB -----
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI -----
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI @ MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 190,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-20
PK Connor Barth 3 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears are not going to catch up to the 11-1 Falcons but they are a half game behind the 49ers who they lost to in week 11. That makes getting a #2 seed daunting and a home game versus the 8-4 Packers looms on the other side of this game for what will likely be the divisional title. That makes looking past this week something that the Bears cannot afford to do since every win is important and in particular divisional wins since the Packers already beat Chicago back in week two.

Jay Cutler passed for 188 yards and one score in the first meeting with the Vikes in his first game back from a concussion. He's thrown for multiple scores in the last three road games along with healthy yardage.

Matt Forte only gained 42 yards on 14 runs when the Vikings visited but left that game in the third quarter with an ankle injury. He was able to play against the Seahawks just last week when he ran 21 times for 66 yards and added three catches for 30 yards and one touchdown. He'll be healthy entering this game and Michael Bush accounted for 21 runs and 60 yards replacing Forte in that game. Bush also rushed in two touchdowns as well. The 126 rush yards and two scores are why Cutler did not need to throw as much in the last matchup.

As always, only Brandon Marshall matters in the passing game and he turned in a season high 12 catches for 92 yards on the Vikings. Just last week versus the Seahawks, Marshall was able to rack up ten receptions for a season best 165 yards. The equation is not hard to decipher here - Forte runs and catches the ball, add in a little Michael Bush and then throw every other pass to Marshall. That gets you to 8-4 tied for the division lead.

There is still an outside chance that Alshon Jeffrey returns this week to a limited role since it has been over two weeks since he had his knee scoped. LC Brian Urlacher will miss this and the next couple of games with a hamstring strain which will not hurt the stats of Adrian Peterson.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 28 14 18 31 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 22 16 11 20 14 12

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI DET 0000019010 ***
Trubisky showed a little life last week. Detroit, though, has given up only four TD passes, while intercepting as many, in the past four games. Remove two rushing TDs and this goes from being the 12th-best matchup of the week to the 12th-worst.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Howard, CHI DET 11011100000 ***
Howard takes on the Lions' porous rushing defense. This group has permitted 114 rushing yards (6th-most) and a rushing TD every 19.6 carries, which is the second-highest frequency. Through the air, backs have gone for 6.0 catches for 37.3 yards. None of the 24 catches since Week 5 have scored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Benny Cunningham, CHI DET 1003200000 ***
Cunningham played nearly 50 percent of the snaps last week and appears to have solidly taken over for Tarik Cohen. It's somewhat interesting that Cohen's downfall began when Mitchell Trubisky took over. At any rate, Detroit is a midrange defense for receiving backs. Look elsewhere for a better reward play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dontrelle Inman, CHI DET 004401000 **
Inman showed progress the last two years with the Chargers but was the odd man out with the Mike Williams selection. He had not played since Week 4 of this year but returned to finish with six catches for 88 yards on eight targets vs. Green Bay. The Lions have surrendered 12.5 catches (9th most), 164.3 yards (11th) and a TD every 16.7 receptions (22nd).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, CHI DET 004500000 ***
Wright has seen eight targets in each of the past two contests but hasn't managed to do anything with them. Those looks have resulted in just seven catches for 69 yards. Detroit is a borderline matchup. Play him at your own risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Joshua Bellamy, CHI DET 002300000 **
Bellamy was targeted seven times last week, catching two for 57 and a score. He's a wild gamble in any format. The Lions have given up top-11 figures for yardage and catches but only three WR TDs in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tre McBride III, CHI DET 002300000 *
McBride doesn't belong on any fantasy rosters at this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Adam Shaheen, CHI DET 002300000 ***
Detroit has been dominant against tight ends lately, giving up only three catches per contest since Week 5. The rookie tight end doesn't belong on anyone's radar right now.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Connor Barth, CHI DET 1122 ***
Detroit squeaks into negative territory for Week 11 kicker matchups. The position has averaged 7.3 fantasy points, mostly generated by making 3.5 PATs a game. Five of the six total field goals since Week 5 have been true.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB 14-23
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI -----
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL -----
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU -----
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 210,1
WR Jarius Wright 3-50
TE Kyle Rudolph 6-60,1
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The killer schedule is still drawing blood and these final four games could all be losses - the Vikings will be underdogs in each. This is a replay of just two weeks ago when the Vikings lost by 18 points and the offense is struggling outside of Adrian Peterson. Greatly struggling. Enough so that now HC Leslie Frazier gets the weekly task of throwing his support behind his starting quarterback.

Christian Ponder has only gotten worse as the season progressed and he's only scored six times over the last six games while throwing seven interceptions and four times failing to pass for more than 160 yards. In Chicago, he was only good for 159 yards and one score with both an interception and turnover.Last week was 119 yards and one score in Green Bay.

Ponder is getting little help outside of Kyle Rudolph who scored in Chicago with 55 yards on five catches. The second-year tight end scored in each of the last three games while remaining just above 50 yards in each and on this offense that is wildly productive.

Percy Harvin remains out and with him any chance of a success passing effort. Harvin was initially hoped to return last week but that never happened. He has been diagnosed with a Grade 3 ankle sprain which involves a completely torn ligament. He may be able to play this week but will require pain injections to do so. In his place Jarius Wright has been of little help along with every other wideout. There is no element of this passing offense that contains fantasy relevancy.

Adrian Peterson literally is carrying the entire offense. He is on a six game streak of 100+ yard games including 210 yards and a score in Green Bay last week. He scored in each of those six games except, of course, the Bears game in Chicago when he "only" managed 108 yards on 18 runs but added six receptions for 30 yards. Peterson currently stands at 1446 rushing yards which is a pace that would end at 1928 yards. He's actually been far more productive as the season progresses and, sadly, as the rest of the offense disappears. Fortunately the Vikings are not squandering Peterson prime years by forcing him to carry the team. No wait. That is exactly what is happening. Imagine Peterson playing in a high powered offense. With a good quarterback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 27 12 30 16 6 21
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 3 3 7 19 8 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, MIN LAR 0000023011 ***
Keenum may have put a stranglehold on the starting job in Week 10. The visiting Rams have been a formidable opponent for quarterbacks. The position has averaged 217.5 yards (25th) and 15.4 fantasy points (29th) on a weekly basis, giving up only one TD per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN LAR 5014300000 ***
If McKinnon indeed lives up to his projected touchdown, it will be only the second time in the past five weeks. The general theme of his matchup is negative. LA ranks 27th in rushing TDs, 20th in total TDs, 18th in rushing yards, 19th in receiving yards, 21st in standard fantasy points and 22nd in PPR points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, MIN LAR 6001100000 ***
Murray will have to defy the odds against a solidly negative matchup. Just one time in the past 81 attempts has a running back made it into the end zone. His only justifiable utility is as a flex in deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN LAR 002201000 ***
Without scoring a TD, Wright is wrong for fantasy purposes. Taking that gamble is unnecessary, especially vs. such a strong defense of the position in the Rams.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN LAR 006600000 ***
The Rams have been strong against wideouts all season. In the past five weeks, only two of 42 completions have found the end zone by receivers, which is the sixth-lowest rate in football. Thielen faces a defense that has given up just 10.5 catches for 132 yards, on average, to an entire team's worth of wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN LAR 003500000 ***
Only one catch per every 21 against the Rams has found the end zone. This is the sixth-lowest frequency, and LA ranks as the sixth-hardest defense to exploit in fantasy. Wideouts have averaged 10.5 receptions (22nd) and 132 yards per contest (21st).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN LAR 006300000 ***
LA has yielded very little to the position. Only one of the 14 catches has scored in the last four games, and the position has managed just 45.3 yards an outing. Rudolph is a fringe play in this one.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, MIN LAR 2222 ***
Despite allowing a reasonable seven field goal kicks, only two have made it, which depresses this matchup's rating. The position has kicked only five XPAs, and the 2.8 fantasy points per game allowed is the fewest since Week 5.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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