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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: DET 16, GB 27 Line (GB by 6.5)

Players Updated: Alex Green, James Starks

Players to Watch: Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers

This is a replay of just three weeks ago when the Packers won 24-20 in Detroit. The Packers are 8-4 and 5-1 in home games while the 4-8 Lions are only 2-4 on the road and have lost their last four games.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB 20-24
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU 31-34
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND 33-35
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB -----
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI -----
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL -----
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 270,1
WR Golden Tate 4-50,1
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Lions are on a four game slide but the last four came all at home and by four points or less. The remaining schedule is not going to be any help either with the Packers, Cardinals, Falcons and Bears left to play. The Cards are the easiest remaining opponent and yet that happens in Arizona. By this point the only thing there really is to root for is Calvin Johnson and his quest to set the new single-season record for receiving yardage.

Johnson currently stands at 1428 yards in 12 games for a pace that would end with 1904 yards on the season. Jerry Rice's record still stands at 1848 yards. What else is there to play for this year in Detroit? Megatron just a record for five consecutive games with over 125 yards in each. Johnson caught five passes for 143 yards and a score on the visiting Packers and notched a touchdown in each of the last four games.

Matt Stafford only passed for 266 yards and one touchdown in the last meeting with the Packers and his worst games this year have almost all been on the road. That 266 yards was one of his lowest efforts of the year though and he's posted seven different games with over 300 passing yards.

Mikel Leshoure ran for 84 yards on 19 carries and scored once on the Packers in week 11. He has scored in both of the successive weeks since then though his streak neatly covers all home games. On the road. Leshoure has been less effective and scored only against the weakest of opponents.

The only other interesting tidbit is that Titus Young lined up incorrectly intentionally a couple off weeks ago and has been "a petulant A-hole". He has seen his last down as a Lion and is replaced by Mike Thomas. Sadly Ryan Broyles blew out his ACL last week and is also gone. He ended his senior year at Oklahoma early with his left knee blown. Now a little more than a year later he just blew his right one. That makes Nate Burleson and Broyles on IR and Young chained to a dog house forever. Mike Thomas has only caught three passes in his three games with the Lions. Tony Scheffler is expected to help fill in as a slot receiver.

The lack of credible receivers may be the end of Calvin Johnson's quest to set a record. Then again - no one can stop him recently and it is not like he is a secret weapon.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 5 10 4 8 8 28
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 18 17 26 4 18 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET @CHI 10000028010 ***
Chicago has been stout vs. QBs, giving up only one TD pass in the last four games (86 completions). That is the stiffest rate in football. Four interceptions and 225.5 yards allowed later, this is the third-worst opponent of the week. Stafford averaged a modest 17 fantasy points vs. the Bears in last year's two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ameer Abdullah, DET @CHI 5011100000 ***
The Bears rank as the 10th-easiest defense for gaining rushing yards and racking up rushing TDs. Abdullah could turn in a decent game, if you're willing to take the risk. This one is probably much closer to being a coin toss than a lock.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Theo Riddick, DET @CHI 1005500000 ***
Chicago's defense has granted running backs 6.5 receptions (8th) and the 17th-highest average (42.3) aerial yards. None of the 26 catches permitted since Week 5 have found the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, DET @CHI 005801000 ***
Tate is always the safest bet among Detroit's receiving corps. The Bears, though, won't be a friendly opponent. Since Week 5, only one time has a reception gone into the end zone. That's 42 catches worth. Chicago is the eighth-hardest opponent in PPR and seventh-worst in standard. He generated a total of just 12.8 PPR points in two games last year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marvin Jones Jr., DET @CHI 005700000 ***
Jones' streak of quality play game to a crashing halt last week. It may need to wait a week before getting back on course. The Bears rate as the eighth-best defense of the position and have allowed only one TD in the last four games, spanning 41 catches. He was good for 12.4 and 10.7 PPR points in the two 2016 meetings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Golladay, DET @CHI 002400000 ***
Golladay returned last week but is hard to bank on in fantasy. Consider him nothing more than a contrarian play in huge DFS contests.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, DET @CHI 003300000 ***
Chicago is the second-worst matchup of the week, and Ebron might as well be the second-worst tight end of the year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Matt Prater, DET @CHI 2222 ***
Chicago offers a midrange matchup. Fourteen of the 15 kicks have been good, and the best part is nine of them were field goals. The volume prevents this from being an elite matchup.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET -----
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI -----
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 10 280,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-70,1
TE Lance Kendricks 3-30
PK Mason Crosby 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: it is sort of like the Packers never fully returned from their week 10 bye. They have not scored more than 24 points in the last three weeks and Aaron Rodgers production has been puzzling to say the least. In the last three games, he threw for only four total touchdowns and averaged around 250 yards. He's going on six weeks from his last 300 yard effort and now the last two weeks have seen his multiple score streak end with only single touchdowns in New York and against the Vikings.

Since mid-season, Rodgers is really little more than just a decent fantasy play with no real advantage offered. He scores every week. But lately just once and with moderate yardage at best. His last two score game was in Detroit when he passed for just 236 yards. In recent weeks, the Packers have been more focused on establishing the run but that is doing nothing for the fantasy futures of Rodgers and the receivers.

The plan is to go with the "hot hand" between Alex Green and James Starks but combined they only scored once this year and that was just last week when Starks gained 66 yards on 15 runs versus the Vikings. Green took 12 carries and gained 58 yards then as well. The rushing focus is not producing anyone with fantasy merit or even creating much good for the Packers outside of slowing games down, reducing the passing and yet never scoring.

Jordy Nelson injured his hamstring last week after just one catch and while it is not claimed to be serious, he is expected to sit out this week. His role goes over the Greg Jennings who was kinda wondering what he was going to do with Randall Cobb doing a Wally Pip on him as a starter. The lack of passing yardage and scores has really decreased the fantasy value among all these receivers. Cobb had his best game of the year when he caught nine passes for 74 yards and a score in Detroit but all other wideouts remained below 50 yards in that game.

The Lions yield two passing scores to pretty much everyone and should allow a better game for Rodgers this week. But offensive line problems are creating problems in pass protection and the running back combo has been good enough to move the sticks, even if they do not even combine for any real production. In Detroit, Starks ran for 74 yards on 25 carries while Green did not have any touches that week.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 4 32 1 12 29 16
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 13 11 13 28 25 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB BAL 30100020001 ***
Fresh off of its bye, Baltimore heads to Green Bay with fantasy's second-best defense of QBs in tow. Hundley looked more competent last week, though he remains a good ways off from being a reasonable fantasy play. Baltimore has given up only three TD strikes in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB BAL 6012200000 **
No Aaron Jones, and likely no Ty Montgomery, means Williams will have the majority of the work will fall squarely on his rookie shoulders. Baltimore returns from a bye week with the eighth-softest rushing yardage defense but the 19th-easiest scoring defense. One in 59 carries, on average, goes into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB BAL 004600000 ***
This isn't the kind of situation in which a gamer should feel comfortable about a player getting on track. The Week 10 showing was nice and all, but Baltimore is coming off a bye week and has the fourth-toughest defense in fantasy. Only two of the past 39 catches have scored, and that spans four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB BAL 003500000 ***
Cobb faces a brutal matchup with a defense coming off of a well-timed bye. The Ravens have given up just 9.8 catches for 105 yards and 0.5 TDs per game to wide receivers. It doesn't get much tougher than this.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB BAL 003400000 ***
Nelson has fallen off of the fantasy map with Aaron Rodgers' injury, and expecting him to rechart his course this week is an expedition one shouldn't want to venture. Baltimore has given up 39 catches over it's last four games, which ranks as the sixth fewest. Moreover, only two of those balls have found paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Lance Kendricks, GB BAL 002200000 ***
The Packers utilize the position too inconsistently to consider Kendricks for a lineup spot.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB BAL 2222 ***
Baltimore is a midrange opponent for kickers this week. Most of the work has come via three-pointers, so there is at least that going for Crosby. Even if every kick was good, the position would have averaged a modest 8.0 fantasy points.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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