FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: HOU 31, NE 27 (Line: NE by 4)

Players to Watch: Arian Foster, Tom Brady

Now this is a good Monday Night Football game. The 11-1 Texans have already clinched a playoff berth and are two games ahead of New England, Baltimore and Denver for the #1 seed in the AFC. So far, the Texans are a perfect 6-0 on the road and are on a six game winning streak. The 9-3 Patriots are 4-1 at home and also on a six game winning streak. Here is another wonderful angle - this pits the #1 against the #2 scoring team. And the Texans secondary has been hard hit by injuries to make this even more fun.

Pregame Notes: This is an all important game for the Texans and could well be the precursor to the AFC Championship game. With two home games to follow against the Colts and Vikings, the Texans could make that season finale' against in Indianapolis a moot point by remaining two games ahead of the AFC pack. While this may be a particularly bad time to be missing a couple of cornerbacks, the Texans have risen up and got the job done before and tend to play up or down to whatever their opponent is like.

If this moves entirely to the air later in the game, Matt Schaub can hang with that having thrown for multiple scores in half his games and scorching the Jaguars for 527 yards and five scores in week 11 followed by 315 yards and a score in Detroit. This will not be a game decided purely by the Texans running offense and Schaub can mix it up when needed.

Arian Foster scored his fifteenth touchdown on the year in Tennessee last Sunday but was limited to only 14 carries partly to rest him up for this week. Foster has shouldered a heavy load this year and even added three to five receptions per week as well. Ben Tate remains the #3 thanks to Justin Forsett's recent three game streak of over 60 yards per game. Those came against weaker defenses to be sure and his role is likely to be scaled back in a tough game like this with such important consequences at play. The Patriots rank well against running backs and yet have not faced many of the top backs. And Foster is the top back.

Owen Daniels already has six touchdowns this year and now will face the weakest secondary against tight ends. He was turning in 60+ yard efforts every week until recently when the opponents became easier to beat. He's sure to play a big role this week and Garrett Graham may be out this week which would call up James Casey into play and further the importance of Daniels.

The Patriots secondary is better but still allows big yardage and scores to primary receivers like Andre Johnson. He's no hidden weapon to be sure but did just post 9-188 and 14-273 in two of the last three games. No doubt he'll come into heavy play again this week. Foster could do better in New England than they expect and if so, that could lower the passing production from both sides.

I like a defensive score in this game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Matt Schaub, HOU	@IND	0	0	0	0	0	250	2	1
Two weeks ago Schaub threw for 261 and 1 against the Colts. He may be asked to do a bit more of the heavy lifting with Arian Foster coming back from an irregular heartbeat. And Houston still has something to play for, as a win would salt away the top seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Arian Foster, HOU	@IND	80	1	3	20	0	0	0	0
Foster rolled the Colts for 165 yards on 27 carries a couple weeks back, and he's been cleared by doctors following last week's irregular heartbeat incident. But with the playoffs looming and Ben Tate healthy, not to mention the whole heartbeat thing, that seems like an aggressive workload against Indy. Settle for "good", but he'll likely share too much with Tate to hit "great".

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Ben Tate, HOU	@IND	40	0	3	20	0	0	0	0
Indy has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in five of the last six games, including 178 to the Texans in Week 15. Arian Foster accounted for most of that, but Tate's healthier now and after Foster left last week's game with an irregular heartbeat it wouldn't be a shock to see Tate handle a bigger share of the work this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, HOU	@IND	0	0	7	100	1	0	0	0
Johnson took the Colts for 11-151-1 a couple weeks back, so he should have no trouble collecting the 43 yards he needs to reach the 1,500-yard mark. And with double-digit targets in four straight (and five of six, and eight of the last 10) he'll be the guy Matt Schaub leans on if the ground game can't get going--or if the Texans find themselves playing catch-up to Andrew Luck.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR DeVier Posey, HOU	@IND	0	0	2	30	0	0	0	0
Is Posey taking over the wingman job from Kevin Walter? Maybe, but he hasn't done enough to turn that gig into something warranting fantasy attention just yet.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Owen Daniels, HOU	@IND	0	0	4	40	1	0	0	0
Daniels didn't do much against Indy a couple weeks back, and with James Casey and Garrett Graham stealing the occasional touchdown he's a tough start in TD-heavy scoring systems. He's still the lead dog in the Texans' tight end rotation, but that doesn't carry as much weight as it used to.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Garrett Graham, HOU	@IND	0	0	2	20	0	0	0	0
Graham's biggest fantasy impact is stealing just enough from Owen Daniels' plate to render him a lesser fantasy entity. He's not doing enough on his own on a consistent basis to warrant a fantasy start.

Pregame Notes: Not unlike the Texans, this is a big game for the Patriots and as soon as this is over, the 49ers show up next week for two games against likely the two toughest defenses they will face this year. The final weeks in Jacksonville and hosting the Fins are sort of "gimmees" but these next two weeks will go far in defining what the Patriots are going to do in the playoffs and where they will fall in the seeding. With a current three-way tie for the #2 seed, any loss is going to be hard to compensate.

Tom Brady comes off his worst game of the year when he only managed 238 pass yards and one score in Miami that included only his fourth interception of the year. He was also sacked a season-high four times. But Brady has been golden almost every week this year with seven efforts over 300 yards and multiple scores in the previous six games. Catching the Texans with a banged up secondary only makes it better.

The Patriots placed Julian Edelman on injured reserve from his broken foot which leaves them thin enough at wideout to call back Donte Stallworth. With Rob Gronkowski still out, the passing game has shrunk to mostly Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez. Brandon Lloyd has just gone cold despite the need for help and last week comes off a single catch in Miami of his only pass target in the game. Edelman was starting to take hold on a role in the offense but now his workload is likely just absorbed by Welker and Hernandez.

Brandon Bolden has concluded his four-game suspension but the Pats rushing effort has been more than solid and combined ranks #2 in fantasy points. Stevan Ridley is currently on a five game scoring streak and gets help from Shane Vereen and Danny Woodhead already. No real place for Bolden currently. This week they all face the best rushing defense in the league so their stats are bound to take a dip. In the end, this will be mostly about Brady exploiting the banged up Texans secondary and Houston trying to run Foster as much as they can to delay the inevitable aerial war that will break out.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE	MIA	0	0	0	0	0	280	2	0
Brady is always a must start anyway but he settled for only 238 yards and one score in Miami this year. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but this is less likely to become a monster game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE	MIA	80	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ridley will share the workload with the other three runners but he - and he alone - is consistent and productive enough to merit a start. Ridley already had 19-71 and a TD in Miami and should be good for more this week depending on the whims of Bill Belichick who may want to rest Ridley a little this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE	MIA	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Amendola will be the main focus of the defense that only allowed two TDs to visiting wideouts this year and rarely more than 50 yards. His last two road games combined for only three catches and 43 yards so leave Amendola on your bench this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Michael Jenkins, NE	MIA	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Jenkins is a great downfield blocker and reliable short-game target, but he's turned neither into much in the way of fantasy contributions this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Aaron Hernandez, NE	MIA	0	0	7	90	0	0	0	0
Hernandez caught eight passes for 97 yards versus the Fins this year and should end up taking the tight end workload alone again this week. Always a safe start but Fins have only allowed two scores to the position all year.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE	MIA	2	2	3	3
At home versus the Fins has to be at least average points at worse.

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