FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, CLE Line: 23 (CLE by 6.5)

Players to Watch: Dwayne Bowe, Trent Richardson

The 2-10 Chiefs come off their second win of the year and probably the least likely game to have a victory given the events surrounding Javon Belcher on Saturday. The Browns are 4-8 and on a two game winning streak. Basically this is as good as it gets for the Browns this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 5-60

Pregame Notes: It could not have been more surreal last week with the murder/suicide before the game and then watching the Chiefs put up their most complete and solid showing perhaps all year. Brady Quinn completed 19 of 23 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The previous week he went 13-25 for 126 against the Broncos. He had not scored all year prior to last Sunday. He had ruined the fantasy fortunes of pretty much everyone other than Jamaal Charles.

Admittedly speculation, but I would expect a return to the bad Chiefs on the road and now with some time to soak in what happened and let it affect them if it does at all. The Panthers were clearly not expecting the effort last week nor was anyone. I would expect it catches up this week and that any gains of week 13 will be mostly gone.

Jamaal Charles ran for 127 yards on 27 carries last week which gives him 3 games over 100 yards in the last four weeks. Charles continues to run hard and even in the worst of games for the Chiefs, he usually ends up with a decent start line. The season was over long ago but Charles is still a gamer and not letting it slow him down. This will be his first road game since week ten when he gained 100 yards and a score in Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs still trot out Peyton Hillis to take handoffs and then fall down though he did manage his first touchdown of the season just last week, making it all that much more surreal.

The only other player here with any fantasy value all year was Dwayne Bowe who really fell off as soon as Quinn took over. He has not gained more than 65 yards in any of the last four games and has not scored since week four. Chances are he'll be spending at least some time with an out-of-position Joe Haden this week.

Last week may have suggested that there was fantasy value to be had here but ring that one up to just a strange situation and a response that was surprising. That should catch up to them this week on the road and put them back to their seven week string of games that never had more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 19 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC NYJ 0000026021 ***
This could be a fine time to deploy Smith. He may have to pass more than usual and finds the seventh easiest matchup in Week 3. Toss him into DFS lineups at a minimum.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Spencer Ware, KC NYJ 5014300000 ***
Only seven teams have been tougher against RBs than New York, but that is somewhat because the Jets have been so easily exploited aerially. Ware stumbled a bit in Week 2 for fantasy purposes, and he's probably not 100 percent healthy. Check high expectations at the door, but let him in on the party.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC NYJ 0071001000 ***
It can be presumed Maclin will draw Darrelle Revis, which isn't exactly a fantasy death sentence anymore. Confidently play the receiver as a PPR WR2 or No. 3 in standard. NYJ has permitted the third most points to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC NYJ 004500000 ***
Conley has no value at this point in traditional formats, despite a great matchup. Maybe DFSers with a lot of brawn.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC NYJ 006601000 ***
The Jets present a strong defense of tight ends to the tune of 7-86-0 through two contests. Kelce doesn't deserve to benched and has a fair shot at scoring this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NYJ 2233 ***
One tough defensive matchup and a midrange offense generally translate to field goal tries.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK 20-17
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CLE vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 30 240,1
WR Josh Gordon 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is definitely as good as it gets for the Browns with remaining games against the surprising Redskins and then trips to Denver and Pittsburgh where it is not likely to be pretty. The defense has been playing well this year and only once allowed more than 25 points in any game. The offense is also coming together better with 20 points scored in each of the last three weeks against quality opponents and the Raiders.

Brandon Weeden threw for a career best 364 yards in Oakland last Sunday but only scored once. He has four remaining weeks to prove to the Browns that they already have their franchise quarterback and can focus on one of their many other needs in the draft and free agency this spring. Weeden only scored 13 times this year but his yardage has been healthy at least most of the time. Don't forget either that this team only passed for 12 touchdowns in all of last year and never passed for more than 280 yards in any game. Weeden's topped that in four different matchups so far.

Weeden is also balanced out by Trent Richardson who has become one of the better runners in the league and rushed in seven touchdowns on the year. He;s been good for more than 100 total yards each of the last three home games and those went against the Chargers, Ravens and Steelers. He's scored in over half of his games so far and has been a tremendous draft selection.

Ben Watson just turned in a season-best 80 yards on six catches but spends most weeks remaining under 30 yards as a receiver and mostly blocks for Richardson.

Weeden has also been saddled with a fairly motley crew of receivers though Josh Gordon is getting better and is the only Browns receiver with any real fantasy merit. He comes off a season best 116 yards and a score in Oakland and posted five touchdowns in all. There is little fantasy consideration in any other receivers here though on a rare occasion one will turn in a decent game and then disappear. Gordon is not worth a start other than against the weakest of opponents and even them only as a WR3 play.

The Panthers were surprised by the Chiefs last week. We'll see how long that lasts now in a road game with plenty of time to digest what happened and return to being the team they were all along.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 19 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Cody Kessler, CLE @MIA 0000018002 *
The 6-foot-1, 215-pound rookie is Cleveland's third starter in as many weeks. Chemistry will be an issue with the receiving corps -- there's only so much changing a team can do at this position. Starting Kessler in fantasy may lead to drinking unhealthy amounts of his namesake whiskey.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE @MIA 7011100000 ***
Miami doesn't know how to stop running backs, so there is a positive in Cleveland's offense after all. The Dolphins have yielded the 10th most fantasy points to RBs, including four touchdown runs in two games. Crowell showed some wheels in Week 2. There's hope. Crowell is a low-end RB2 or capable flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Duke Johnson Jr., CLE @MIA 2003300000 ***
Involved in only 46 percent of Cleveland's plays, Johnson's role is limited to that of a pass-catcher and third-down option. Miami has given up only eight catches for 28 yards. Play him only if you must, but there's an outside chance he's a strong PPR play if quarterback Cody Kessler plays the dink-and-dunk game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., CLE @MIA 003400000 *
Pryor is a home run weapon but offers little more than that for gamers despite seeing the most snaps among all Cleveland receivers. The matchup is sweet enough to take a high-risk flier, though.

Update: Even with Corey Coleman (hand) out of action, Pryor shouldn't be consider anything more than the wildest of DFS gambles.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andrew Hawkins, CLE @MIA 003300000 ***
Hawkins is a PPR weapon who may see more work with Corey Coleman injured. Avoid the slot receiver in any normal league formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Gary Barnidge, CLE @MIA 004500000 *
The Dolphins have given up the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends in two games of play. Barnidge could be the safety blanket for rookie QB Cody Kessler in the passer's first start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, CLE @MIA 1111 ***
A rookie third-string quarterback leading the offense ... no thanks.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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