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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, CLE Line: 23 (CLE by 6.5)

Players to Watch: Dwayne Bowe, Trent Richardson

The 2-10 Chiefs come off their second win of the year and probably the least likely game to have a victory given the events surrounding Javon Belcher on Saturday. The Browns are 4-8 and on a two game winning streak. Basically this is as good as it gets for the Browns this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 5-60

Pregame Notes: It could not have been more surreal last week with the murder/suicide before the game and then watching the Chiefs put up their most complete and solid showing perhaps all year. Brady Quinn completed 19 of 23 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The previous week he went 13-25 for 126 against the Broncos. He had not scored all year prior to last Sunday. He had ruined the fantasy fortunes of pretty much everyone other than Jamaal Charles.

Admittedly speculation, but I would expect a return to the bad Chiefs on the road and now with some time to soak in what happened and let it affect them if it does at all. The Panthers were clearly not expecting the effort last week nor was anyone. I would expect it catches up this week and that any gains of week 13 will be mostly gone.

Jamaal Charles ran for 127 yards on 27 carries last week which gives him 3 games over 100 yards in the last four weeks. Charles continues to run hard and even in the worst of games for the Chiefs, he usually ends up with a decent start line. The season was over long ago but Charles is still a gamer and not letting it slow him down. This will be his first road game since week ten when he gained 100 yards and a score in Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs still trot out Peyton Hillis to take handoffs and then fall down though he did manage his first touchdown of the season just last week, making it all that much more surreal.

The only other player here with any fantasy value all year was Dwayne Bowe who really fell off as soon as Quinn took over. He has not gained more than 65 yards in any of the last four games and has not scored since week four. Chances are he'll be spending at least some time with an out-of-position Joe Haden this week.

Last week may have suggested that there was fantasy value to be had here but ring that one up to just a strange situation and a response that was surprising. That should catch up to them this week on the road and put them back to their seven week string of games that never had more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 19 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC OAK 0000024010 ***
There is no reason to chance it with Smith. He hasn't delivered in friendly matchups, and this one rates leaning poor. The Raiders have given up only five TD passes in their last four appearances. Smith failed to through a TD in their earlier meeting this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Spencer Ware, KC OAK 11013300000 ***
No team has been punished more by running backs when it comes to giving up ground scores, and this is the third best overall matchup to exploit in Week 14. Ware scored 24.3 PPR points in Week 6 against the Raiders.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Charcandrick West, KC OAK 300000000 ***
West doesn't touch the ball enough to deserve fantasy consideration in Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC OAK 2005601000 ***
Hill's role decreased, in theory, with Jeremy Maclin back on the field. The Raiders, outside of allowing a TD per game in the last four, rate as a bottom-12 opponent for fantasy receivers in PPR scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC OAK 004400000 **
Maclin is expected to return in Week 14, but trusting him is a risky prospect. The Raiders have allowed the 12th fewest points to receivers since Week 8, and groin injuries can be tricky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC OAK 003300000 ***
Conley has no value in any conventional fantasy format this or any week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC OAK 004500000 ***
Oakland has been oppressive against tight ends since Week 8, allowing only 18 catches and no touchdowns. Kelce posted a 3-32-0 line in Week 6 versus the Raiders.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC OAK 3333 ***
The recent math isn't exactly on Santos' side, but divisional matchups tend to toss the rules out of the window. In their Week 6 meeting in Oakland, Santos made two of his three extra points and matched with a pair of field goals on three attempts.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK 20-17
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CLE vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 30 240,1
WR Josh Gordon 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is definitely as good as it gets for the Browns with remaining games against the surprising Redskins and then trips to Denver and Pittsburgh where it is not likely to be pretty. The defense has been playing well this year and only once allowed more than 25 points in any game. The offense is also coming together better with 20 points scored in each of the last three weeks against quality opponents and the Raiders.

Brandon Weeden threw for a career best 364 yards in Oakland last Sunday but only scored once. He has four remaining weeks to prove to the Browns that they already have their franchise quarterback and can focus on one of their many other needs in the draft and free agency this spring. Weeden only scored 13 times this year but his yardage has been healthy at least most of the time. Don't forget either that this team only passed for 12 touchdowns in all of last year and never passed for more than 280 yards in any game. Weeden's topped that in four different matchups so far.

Weeden is also balanced out by Trent Richardson who has become one of the better runners in the league and rushed in seven touchdowns on the year. He;s been good for more than 100 total yards each of the last three home games and those went against the Chargers, Ravens and Steelers. He's scored in over half of his games so far and has been a tremendous draft selection.

Ben Watson just turned in a season-best 80 yards on six catches but spends most weeks remaining under 30 yards as a receiver and mostly blocks for Richardson.

Weeden has also been saddled with a fairly motley crew of receivers though Josh Gordon is getting better and is the only Browns receiver with any real fantasy merit. He comes off a season best 116 yards and a score in Oakland and posted five touchdowns in all. There is little fantasy consideration in any other receivers here though on a rare occasion one will turn in a decent game and then disappear. Gordon is not worth a start other than against the weakest of opponents and even them only as a WR3 play.

The Panthers were surprised by the Chiefs last week. We'll see how long that lasts now in a road game with plenty of time to digest what happened and return to being the team they were all along.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 19 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, CLE CIN 20000018011 *
While the QB situation has yet to be cleared up, it stands to reason that Griffin should start this week. Cleveland has to get some idea of what he offers in the long run. The Bengals have given up only five TD passes in the last four games, intercepting seven passes along the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE CIN 4005300000 *
For backs of Crowell's ilk, the Bengals are a thoroughly midrange matchup. This defense ranks as the 14th most exploitable overall but mostly through yardage and catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Duke Johnson Jr., CLE CIN 2004200000 *
Receiving backs have snared 6.3 balls for 39.3 yards a game versus the position in the last four games. Johnson has limited flex appeal in PPR setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., CLE CIN 004601000 *
Cincinnati ranks 17th in receptions allowed, 29th in yards per game, 28th in touchdown efficiency, and 28th in PPR points allowed ... Pryor is a risky start in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Coleman, CLE CIN 004500000 *
The quarterback situation is unsettling, and the matchup isn't much better. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to receivers over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Gary Barnidge, CLE CIN 004400000 *
RG3 is expected to start, and Barnidge has modest upside. The Bengals are a good matchup, giving up the most TE receptions a game since Week 8. Risky, sure, but you could do worse.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, CLE CIN 2211 ***
Kickers have converted 14 of 15 combined kicking chances, which registers as the ninth worst matchup for the position.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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