FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, CLE Line: 23 (CLE by 6.5)

Players to Watch: Dwayne Bowe, Trent Richardson

The 2-10 Chiefs come off their second win of the year and probably the least likely game to have a victory given the events surrounding Javon Belcher on Saturday. The Browns are 4-8 and on a two game winning streak. Basically this is as good as it gets for the Browns this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 3-40
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-60
TE Anthony Fasano 1-10

Pregame Notes: It could not have been more surreal last week with the murder/suicide before the game and then watching the Chiefs put up their most complete and solid showing perhaps all year. Brady Quinn completed 19 of 23 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The previous week he went 13-25 for 126 against the Broncos. He had not scored all year prior to last Sunday. He had ruined the fantasy fortunes of pretty much everyone other than Jamaal Charles.

Admittedly speculation, but I would expect a return to the bad Chiefs on the road and now with some time to soak in what happened and let it affect them if it does at all. The Panthers were clearly not expecting the effort last week nor was anyone. I would expect it catches up this week and that any gains of week 13 will be mostly gone.

Jamaal Charles ran for 127 yards on 27 carries last week which gives him 3 games over 100 yards in the last four weeks. Charles continues to run hard and even in the worst of games for the Chiefs, he usually ends up with a decent start line. The season was over long ago but Charles is still a gamer and not letting it slow him down. This will be his first road game since week ten when he gained 100 yards and a score in Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs still trot out Peyton Hillis to take handoffs and then fall down though he did manage his first touchdown of the season just last week, making it all that much more surreal.

The only other player here with any fantasy value all year was Dwayne Bowe who really fell off as soon as Quinn took over. He has not gained more than 65 yards in any of the last four games and has not scored since week four. Chances are he'll be spending at least some time with an out-of-position Joe Haden this week.

Last week may have suggested that there was fantasy value to be had here but ring that one up to just a strange situation and a response that was surprising. That should catch up to them this week on the road and put them back to their seven week string of games that never had more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 19 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @PIT 0000024021 ***
Smith has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games and should be able to replicate that feat against a Steelers secondary that's served up multiple scoring strikes in eight straight. That's what passes for a big game for Smith.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @PIT 9004401000 ***
Charles is battling head, ankle, and knee injuries so he's been ceding touches to Knile Davis. He's still a must-start, but the fact that Davis swiped two scores last week alone takes some of the luster off.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @PIT 006900000 ***
It's been 17 games, 222 targets, 132 catches, 1,628 yards since a Chiefs wide receiver last scored a touchdown. That streak ends here, against a Steelers secondary that's allowed at least one WR TD in seven straight games, and Bowe is the most likely Chief to do it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC @PIT 004500000 ***
Wilson matched Dwayne Bowe's catches and yardage last week and recorded the second-most targets among KC wideouts as well. Memo to Wilson: if you're going to emulate someone, aim higher.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @PIT 004501000 ***
More reliable targets, i.e. not sharing with Anthony Fasano, and this favorable matchup would make Kelce one of the top tight end plays of the week. Settle for solid and hope Fasano stays out of the mix.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @PIT 2222 ***
Raise your hand if you remember all the way back to Week 8. That's the last time Santos had double-digit points, as well as the last time Pittsburgh gave up double-digit points to an opposing kicker. Two months of evidence suggests you should get your fantasy kicks elsewhere this week.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK 20-17
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Miles Austin 4-50
WR Josh Gordon 5-70,1
PK Garrett Hartley 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: This week is definitely as good as it gets for the Browns with remaining games against the surprising Redskins and then trips to Denver and Pittsburgh where it is not likely to be pretty. The defense has been playing well this year and only once allowed more than 25 points in any game. The offense is also coming together better with 20 points scored in each of the last three weeks against quality opponents and the Raiders.

Brandon Weeden threw for a career best 364 yards in Oakland last Sunday but only scored once. He has four remaining weeks to prove to the Browns that they already have their franchise quarterback and can focus on one of their many other needs in the draft and free agency this spring. Weeden only scored 13 times this year but his yardage has been healthy at least most of the time. Don't forget either that this team only passed for 12 touchdowns in all of last year and never passed for more than 280 yards in any game. Weeden's topped that in four different matchups so far.

Weeden is also balanced out by Trent Richardson who has become one of the better runners in the league and rushed in seven touchdowns on the year. He;s been good for more than 100 total yards each of the last three home games and those went against the Chargers, Ravens and Steelers. He's scored in over half of his games so far and has been a tremendous draft selection.

Ben Watson just turned in a season-best 80 yards on six catches but spends most weeks remaining under 30 yards as a receiver and mostly blocks for Richardson.

Weeden has also been saddled with a fairly motley crew of receivers though Josh Gordon is getting better and is the only Browns receiver with any real fantasy merit. He comes off a season best 116 yards and a score in Oakland and posted five touchdowns in all. There is little fantasy consideration in any other receivers here though on a rare occasion one will turn in a decent game and then disappear. Gordon is not worth a start other than against the weakest of opponents and even them only as a WR3 play.

The Panthers were surprised by the Chiefs last week. We'll see how long that lasts now in a road game with plenty of time to digest what happened and return to being the team they were all along.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 19 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE @CAR 30100018001 **
It can't get much worse than last week for Johnny JamBoogie, and there's not much upside to be gleaned from a matchup with a Carolina defense that's given up just two passing scores the past two weeks. If you want to find a hook to hang your fantasy title hopes on, it's that the Panthers just let Josh McCown rush for a touchdown against them. Yeah, pretty thin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE @CAR 4011000000 **
The Panthers haven't given up a running back touchdown in more than a month, and with Crowell splitting the workload with Terrance West there's not much to like here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terrance West, CLE @CAR 300000000 ***
West is splitting the touches and the production with Isaiah Crowell. When there's 40 carries to split that means plenty of fantasy success to go around. When there's a dozen carries, like last week, and the threat of Johnny Manziel swiping a rushing score looms, and the matchup isn't particularly favorable... well, half of not much isn't going to help your fantasy squad.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Gordon, CLE @CAR 005600000 **
Until we see proof Johnny Manziel can pass, it's tough to trust any Cleveland receiver with a fantasy start. Even Gordon. Doesn't help that Carolina's secondary has given up just one 100-yard receiving game in the past two months.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andrew Hawkins, CLE @CAR 004400000 ***
Tough to be a PPR helper when your quarterback is running for his life, running after the first couple of reads, and has yet to prove himself as an NFL passer. Oh yeah, and Josh Gordon has taken over as the top target in Cleveland as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, CLE @CAR 002200000 ***
Cameron wasn't exactly a hot target for Johnny Manziel last week, with one target on the afternoon. Carolina isn't a favorable matchup for the position, so there's no compelling reason to reach for Cameron this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Garrett Hartley, CLE @CAR 1111 ***
Hartley is still waiting for his first opportunity as a Brown, as Cleveland was blanked last week by the Bengals. Don't expect much of an uptick from the Johnny Football-led offense, nor a helping hand from a Panthers' D that's held four straight foes to only one field goal per game.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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