FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, CLE Line: 23 (CLE by 6.5)

Players to Watch: Dwayne Bowe, Trent Richardson

The 2-10 Chiefs come off their second win of the year and probably the least likely game to have a victory given the events surrounding Javon Belcher on Saturday. The Browns are 4-8 and on a two game winning streak. Basically this is as good as it gets for the Browns this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: It could not have been more surreal last week with the murder/suicide before the game and then watching the Chiefs put up their most complete and solid showing perhaps all year. Brady Quinn completed 19 of 23 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The previous week he went 13-25 for 126 against the Broncos. He had not scored all year prior to last Sunday. He had ruined the fantasy fortunes of pretty much everyone other than Jamaal Charles.

Admittedly speculation, but I would expect a return to the bad Chiefs on the road and now with some time to soak in what happened and let it affect them if it does at all. The Panthers were clearly not expecting the effort last week nor was anyone. I would expect it catches up this week and that any gains of week 13 will be mostly gone.

Jamaal Charles ran for 127 yards on 27 carries last week which gives him 3 games over 100 yards in the last four weeks. Charles continues to run hard and even in the worst of games for the Chiefs, he usually ends up with a decent start line. The season was over long ago but Charles is still a gamer and not letting it slow him down. This will be his first road game since week ten when he gained 100 yards and a score in Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs still trot out Peyton Hillis to take handoffs and then fall down though he did manage his first touchdown of the season just last week, making it all that much more surreal.

The only other player here with any fantasy value all year was Dwayne Bowe who really fell off as soon as Quinn took over. He has not gained more than 65 yards in any of the last four games and has not scored since week four. Chances are he'll be spending at least some time with an out-of-position Joe Haden this week.

Last week may have suggested that there was fantasy value to be had here but ring that one up to just a strange situation and a response that was surprising. That should catch up to them this week on the road and put them back to their seven week string of games that never had more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 19 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC LAC 30000020011 ***
LA continues to dominate the position, allowing only four TDs while picking off 11 balls in the last five games. Only four teams have permitted fewer fantasy points per contest. Smith posted an underwhelming 155 yards and two TDs in the previous game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC LAC 5003200000 ***
Traveling back to Week 3, Hunt was on fire, and the Chargers were in his way. He racked up 172 yards on just 17 rushes, scoring once on the ground. It has been distinctly downhill since that game. The Bolts have permitted lowly yardage numbers in the last five weeks, yielding 81.8 rushing (21st) and 27.6 aerial yards (32nd) an outing. The position has scored four times in those five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC LAC 1005701000 ***
Going back to their Week 3 meeting, Hill managed a 5-77-1 line when the Chiefs were clicking offensively. Following a huge slump, the offense returned to form two weeks ago. He's a high-upside fantasy play whose floor is relatively sturdy. Even the bad games for KC's offense led to mostly productive PPR contests for Hill. Los Angeles boasts the toughest matchup in both scoring systems this week, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC LAC 003400000 ***
Wilson sees a few looks here and there and is capable of the occasional splash play. Trusting him to do it against what has become the most dominant defense of wideouts since Week 9 is foolish.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC LAC 006600000 ***
The Bolts have been mediocre against tight ends. This group has given up 22 catches for 256 yards and two TDs in the past five games -- all midrange figures for per-game averages. Kelce's worst fantasy game as an NFL starter came earlier this year vs. the Chargers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC LAC 4411 ***
The Chargers have provided the fewest per-game fantasy points and field goal attempts since Week 9. Butker faces an opponent that has permitted 11 total kicking chances in the last five games.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK 20-17
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Josh Gordon 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is definitely as good as it gets for the Browns with remaining games against the surprising Redskins and then trips to Denver and Pittsburgh where it is not likely to be pretty. The defense has been playing well this year and only once allowed more than 25 points in any game. The offense is also coming together better with 20 points scored in each of the last three weeks against quality opponents and the Raiders.

Brandon Weeden threw for a career best 364 yards in Oakland last Sunday but only scored once. He has four remaining weeks to prove to the Browns that they already have their franchise quarterback and can focus on one of their many other needs in the draft and free agency this spring. Weeden only scored 13 times this year but his yardage has been healthy at least most of the time. Don't forget either that this team only passed for 12 touchdowns in all of last year and never passed for more than 280 yards in any game. Weeden's topped that in four different matchups so far.

Weeden is also balanced out by Trent Richardson who has become one of the better runners in the league and rushed in seven touchdowns on the year. He;s been good for more than 100 total yards each of the last three home games and those went against the Chargers, Ravens and Steelers. He's scored in over half of his games so far and has been a tremendous draft selection.

Ben Watson just turned in a season-best 80 yards on six catches but spends most weeks remaining under 30 yards as a receiver and mostly blocks for Richardson.

Weeden has also been saddled with a fairly motley crew of receivers though Josh Gordon is getting better and is the only Browns receiver with any real fantasy merit. He comes off a season best 116 yards and a score in Oakland and posted five touchdowns in all. There is little fantasy consideration in any other receivers here though on a rare occasion one will turn in a decent game and then disappear. Gordon is not worth a start other than against the weakest of opponents and even them only as a WR3 play.

The Panthers were surprised by the Chiefs last week. We'll see how long that lasts now in a road game with plenty of time to digest what happened and return to being the team they were all along.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 19 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB DeShone Kizer, CLE BAL 30000020012 ***
Forget last week happened. Baltimore should destroy Kizer ... again. He was picked three times by the Ravens in Week 2, failing to account for a score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE BAL 5001100000 ***
It has been more than a month since he has scored a TD, despite running well. The Ravens held him to 3.7 fantasy points in Week 2. The volume is there, but he has the worst matchup for rushing yards (63) using data from the past five weeks. At least Baltimore has permitted a rushing score every 16.4 carries, which is the softest rate in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Duke Johnson Jr., CLE BAL 2004400000 ***
Baltimore has given up six receptions (7th) for 46 yards (10th) per game, including two TDs over the last 24 balls. Johnson went for 11 PPR points in the Week 2 meeting, and he has posted double figures in nine of his 13 games this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Gordon, CLE BAL 004500000 ***
Gordon is probably going to let down fantasy gamers after inflating their hopes the past two weeks. Baltimore dismantled DeShone Kizer in the first game, and over the last five weeks, not a single one of the 62 receptions allowed found the end zone. No team has been stiffer in this area. At least it is the best matchup for yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Coleman, CLE BAL 002300000 ***
Baltimore has given up the second-most receptions and most yards per contest since Week 9 to receivers, while preventing the position from scoring a single touchdown on those 62 balls. Coleman is a fringe play, at best, in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE David Njoku, CLE BAL 004501000 **
Throw a dart at the wall .... the rookie has one TD in the last eight games. He scored vs. the Ravens in Week 2 on one of his three catches. The Baltimore defense has permitted the most receptions by TEs since Week 9, and none have made it into the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Zane Gonzalez, CLE BAL 2211 ***
The matchup is poor (21st) and against a divisional foe for a winless offense. Look in a different direction.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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