FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, CLE Line: 23 (CLE by 6.5)

Players to Watch: Dwayne Bowe, Trent Richardson

The 2-10 Chiefs come off their second win of the year and probably the least likely game to have a victory given the events surrounding Javon Belcher on Saturday. The Browns are 4-8 and on a two game winning streak. Basically this is as good as it gets for the Browns this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE -----
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 3-40
WR Dwayne Bowe 4-60
TE Anthony Fasano 1-10

Pregame Notes: It could not have been more surreal last week with the murder/suicide before the game and then watching the Chiefs put up their most complete and solid showing perhaps all year. Brady Quinn completed 19 of 23 for 201 yards and two touchdowns. The previous week he went 13-25 for 126 against the Broncos. He had not scored all year prior to last Sunday. He had ruined the fantasy fortunes of pretty much everyone other than Jamaal Charles.

Admittedly speculation, but I would expect a return to the bad Chiefs on the road and now with some time to soak in what happened and let it affect them if it does at all. The Panthers were clearly not expecting the effort last week nor was anyone. I would expect it catches up this week and that any gains of week 13 will be mostly gone.

Jamaal Charles ran for 127 yards on 27 carries last week which gives him 3 games over 100 yards in the last four weeks. Charles continues to run hard and even in the worst of games for the Chiefs, he usually ends up with a decent start line. The season was over long ago but Charles is still a gamer and not letting it slow him down. This will be his first road game since week ten when he gained 100 yards and a score in Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs still trot out Peyton Hillis to take handoffs and then fall down though he did manage his first touchdown of the season just last week, making it all that much more surreal.

The only other player here with any fantasy value all year was Dwayne Bowe who really fell off as soon as Quinn took over. He has not gained more than 65 yards in any of the last four games and has not scored since week four. Chances are he'll be spending at least some time with an out-of-position Joe Haden this week.

Last week may have suggested that there was fantasy value to be had here but ring that one up to just a strange situation and a response that was surprising. That should catch up to them this week on the road and put them back to their seven week string of games that never had more than one touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 30 21 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 20 19 25 1 9 13

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @OAK 0000018010 ***
Smith has one multiple touchdown affair in his past six outings. For fantasy purposes you can do significantly better than a game manager like him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @OAK 9023200000 ***
The last time Charles saw these Raiders he scored five touchdowns; no reason to think he can't do significant fantasy damage once again, as this iteration of the Oakland defense is giving up 160-plus yards per game to opposing running backs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @OAK 004600000 ***
Bowe's high volume of targets suggest he'll be the Chiefs receiver that takes advantage of an Oakland D that's allowed at least one WR TD in six of the past seven games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Junior Hemingway, KC @OAK 002200000 ***
The Chiefs can barely fill the fantasy coffers of one receiver, and target volume says that receiver will be someone other than Hemingway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @OAK 004401000 **
Kelce's seeing the targets, but aside from allowing a pair of scores to Julius Thomas the Raiders have been solid of late against tight ends.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @OAK 2233 ***
Few teams are more point- or kicker-friendly than the Raiders, but Santos isn't big on taking advantage. Between his propensity for single-field goal games and the Raiders being slightly stiffer defensively at home, best get your kicks elsewhere.

Cleveland Browns
Homefield: Cleveland Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PHI 16-17 10 BYE -----
2 @CIN 27-34 11 @DAL 20-23
3 BUF 14-24 12 PIT 20-14
4 @BAL 16-23 13 @OAK 20-17
5 @NYG 27-41 14 KC -----
6 CIN 34-24 15 WAS -----
7 @IND 13-17 16 @DEN -----
8 SD 7-6 17 @PIT -----
9 BAL 15-25 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Miles Austin 4-50
WR Josh Gordon 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is definitely as good as it gets for the Browns with remaining games against the surprising Redskins and then trips to Denver and Pittsburgh where it is not likely to be pretty. The defense has been playing well this year and only once allowed more than 25 points in any game. The offense is also coming together better with 20 points scored in each of the last three weeks against quality opponents and the Raiders.

Brandon Weeden threw for a career best 364 yards in Oakland last Sunday but only scored once. He has four remaining weeks to prove to the Browns that they already have their franchise quarterback and can focus on one of their many other needs in the draft and free agency this spring. Weeden only scored 13 times this year but his yardage has been healthy at least most of the time. Don't forget either that this team only passed for 12 touchdowns in all of last year and never passed for more than 280 yards in any game. Weeden's topped that in four different matchups so far.

Weeden is also balanced out by Trent Richardson who has become one of the better runners in the league and rushed in seven touchdowns on the year. He;s been good for more than 100 total yards each of the last three home games and those went against the Chargers, Ravens and Steelers. He's scored in over half of his games so far and has been a tremendous draft selection.

Ben Watson just turned in a season-best 80 yards on six catches but spends most weeks remaining under 30 yards as a receiver and mostly blocks for Richardson.

Weeden has also been saddled with a fairly motley crew of receivers though Josh Gordon is getting better and is the only Browns receiver with any real fantasy merit. He comes off a season best 116 yards and a score in Oakland and posted five touchdowns in all. There is little fantasy consideration in any other receivers here though on a rare occasion one will turn in a decent game and then disappear. Gordon is not worth a start other than against the weakest of opponents and even them only as a WR3 play.

The Panthers were surprised by the Chiefs last week. We'll see how long that lasts now in a road game with plenty of time to digest what happened and return to being the team they were all along.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 29 19 29 25 19 10
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 23 15 12 27 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brian Hoyer, CLE @ATL 0000026010 ****
The Falcons have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight, which might just be a favorable enough matchup to push Hoyer--who has just one multi-TD outing in his last six games--into fringe fantasy contributor territory.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE @ATL 8012100000 ***
Don't fall for the past two weeks of Atlanta's stats against a pair of run-challenged division foes; they've given up RB TDs in all six non-division games as well as at least 123 yards from scrimmage to the RB position. Crowell was Cleveland's lead dog last week, and with Ben Tate out of the picture he's good for at least half the touches in a backfield that should have its way with the Falcons run D.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terrance West, CLE @ATL 401000000 ***
West took a back seat to Isaiah Crowell last week after getting 26 carries in the key divisional win over Cincy the previous week. Who knows which back will be Cleveland's primary, but against an Atlanta D that's allowing an average of 186 combo yards and 1.6 TDs to opposing non-division backfields even a share means fantasy success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Gordon, CLE @ATL 005801000 *
How quickly can the Browns re-incorporate Gordon into the mix? Shouldn't take long against a secondary that's allowed 100-yard games to the past three feature receivers it has faced.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andrew Hawkins, CLE @ATL 005600000 ***
Hawkins should retain his role even with the return of Josh Gordon, though there may not be as big of a need for his possession receiver skills.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taylor Gabriel, CLE @ATL 003400000 ***
Just as Gabriel was starting to carve out a little niche for himself in the Cleveland passing attack, Josh Gordon returns to blow everything up. With Gordon hogging the looks there's unlikely to be as much fantasy value to Gabriel's game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Miles Austin, CLE @ATL 002200000 ***
Austin was supposed to take the place of Josh Gordon, and now Gordon is back. So... it's been a nice run.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, CLE @ATL 00000000 *
Battling injuries and ineffectiveness, Cameron hasn't been fantasy-relevant since Week 6. The return of Josh Gordon this week overshadows anything Cameron might bring to the table; he's back in "prove it" mode until we see anything that resembles the kind of numbers he put up last year.
Update: Cameron has been ruled out of this week's game... not that he's been much help lately anyway.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Billy Cundiff, CLE @ATL 2233 ***
After a couple big games at home, Cundiff has turtled. It's not a favorable enough matchup to expect a turnaround that will benefit your fantasy squad.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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