FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 20, JAC 17 Line (NYJ by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Greg McElroy, Montel Owens

The 5-7 Jets hit the road where they are only 2-3 and meet the 2-10 Jaguars who have only one home win. Both teams are in transition to nowhere and this game may manage to go off without any discernible fantasy value or implications.

The Jets won 32-3 when the Jaguars visited back in week two of last year.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 70 5-40,1
RB Bilal Powell 70,1 2-10

Pregame Notes: The fun in New York just never ends. As if the Tim Tebow "thing" wasn't enough, now Mark Sanchez was benched after throwing three interceptions last week and Greg McElroy came in and completed 5 of 7 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. All of them went to Jets players. Sanchez was yanked after tossing three interceptions against the visiting Cardinals and now HC Rex Ryan is finally not saying "Mark gives us our best chance to win". It took 13 games and seven losses to get there.

Ryan has not yet named a starter though most believe that McElroy will get the start because really - why not? What is the worst that will happen? Maybe the 7th round pick from 2011 has something. The one biggest rule in coaching a losing season is "look like you are still trying". In either case there won't be any fantasy starter there. Tim Tebow remains conveniently out with a rib injury.

Bilal Powell actually started last week and ran his standard 12 times for 58 yards while Shonn Greene enjoyed his second best game of the year when he gained 104 yards on 24 carries. It is six weeks since he last scored though and he's never gained more than 64 rush yards away from home. At least Powell ran in two scores in St. Louis three weeks ago.

Dustin Keller suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals which was initially said to be a high-ankle sprain but that was later recanted and now it is "just a sprain". Early reports have Keller missing this week. Jeff Cumberland will take his place if needed. He accounted for the lone touchdown pass thrown by McElroy last week.

All bets are off on what to expect if McElroy starts but it is more than reasonable to assume that there will be no fantasy starts from the passing game same as it has been for two months. A new quarterback often starts with a nice game since the defense has nothing to prepare against. This should be more about the run though against a weak defense. That'll benefit both Powell and Greene though not enough to create big expectations.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ LAC 0000017012 ***
Petty has one of the worst matchups of the week and doesn't belong anywhere near a fantasy roster in single-year formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ LAC 601000000 ***
Powell's value has plummeted without an involvement in the passing game. He hasn't recorded a reception in two games and has just four since Week 8. Unless he finds the end zone for his third time in four games, ignore him without a clearer path to points.

Update: Powell should see more work with Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire failing to combine for even one practice this week. Both are gametime decisions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ LAC 3002200000 ***
About the only encouraging aspect of the matchup is LA has given up five offensive touchdowns in as many games since Week 10. Two of those scores came on 24 receptions allowed. Forte is a shaky play in any situation this week.

Update: Forte didn't practice all week and should be avoided if he can go.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ LAC 3002200000 ***
McGuire may see a few handles but isn't a fantasy factor, regardless of the matchup. This one happens to be on the negative side.

Update: McGuire is questionable and did not practice all week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ LAC 004301000 ***
There is no reason to chance it with Kearse vs. the toughest matchup of the week. LA has given up only one WR touchdown in the past five games, and this is a bottom-four matchup for receptions and yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ LAC 005500000 ***
The glory days with Josh McCown are a thing of the past, and Anderson faces the toughest matchup in both scoring systems for the week. LA has allowed a single touchdown by receivers over the past 42 receptions.

Update: Anderson was limited Wednesday but fully practiced the following two days. He is not on the report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ LAC 002200000 ***
Los Angeles isn't the best opponent for scoring against, with two TE touchdowns over the past five games (28 catches). For yardage (9th) and catches (4th) on a weekly rate, gamers have a decent opportunity for safety-valve points if they can trust Bryce Petty to deliver the rock.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ LAC 2222 ***
The Chargers present the fourth-worst matchup for each of FGAs per game, fantasy points per contest, combined kicking chances and possible fantasy points since Week 10.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 230,2
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is probably the final chance for a win for the Jaguars but that will likely need to wait until next year after they make their first or second overall draft pick and then start the new season. Chad Henne remains the starter and while he remains above the low bar left behind by Blaine Gabbert, he has declined each week. In Buffalo, Henne only completed 18 of 41 passes for 208 yards and a score. He did run in a touchdown to ensure that the rushing game would contain zero fantasy relevance.

Maurice Jones-Drew is not playing this week. He is "very questionable" just as he likely will be next week. Unfortunately, Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion last week and likely will miss this game. That leaves Montel Owens as the last man standing. It's all a bad situation that is only getting worse. And there is less reason to bring Jones-Drew back with every loss.

Marcedes Lewis comes off his best game of the year with 68 yards on four catches and he's consistent within the lowered expectations framework of the Jaguars offense.

But the rest of the receivers are less positive. Justin Blackmon only caught one pass for nine yards last week despite getting six targets. That's full circle back to where he started right before Henne showed up and breathed some life into the passing game. Cecil Shorts caught a touchdown last week for the fourth straight game but suffered a concussion. The expectations is that he'll pass tests this week and return since it was a very mild concussion but will be monitored. Shorts is the only consistently good wideout for the Jaguars and has become a must start player.

So this week the team is down to the 4th string running back who has become a starter, Blackmon is back to square one and Cecil Shorts has to clear his tests to play. All in all, just another day in Jacksonville this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @SF 20000028020 ***
In his last five games, Bortles has an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio (plus 2 rushing TDs). He has averaged 22.8 fantasy points and ranks as the seventh quarterback of this span. San Fran brings the sixth-worst matchup for yardage per game but the third-softest rating for allowing touchdowns. The 49ers have a lone pick in the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @SF 8003300000 **
Fournette is expected back for what is a brutal matchup on paper. The perception may be this defense is a cupcake, but the 49ers are the toughest statistical matchup of the week. No other team has denied a running back touchdown of any kind since Week 8, and the position is averaging only 62 rushing yards (32nd). Through the air, this is also the eighth-worst for receptions and No. 30 in terms of yardage granted. All of that said, the opponents were TEN, HOU, CHI, SEA, NYG, ARI and PHI since the last time a running back gashed them (Ezekiel Elliott in Week 7).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC @SF 1003200000 ***
The matchup is not promising by any stretch, and Leonard Fournette returns this week. Yeldon isn't a pragmatic option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC @SF 005901000 ***
Marqise Lee (ankle) has a chance to return this week. The Jaguars may not rush him back with the way Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens played the last time out. San Francisco has permitted receivers a touchdown per game since Week 10, though this is the 23rd-best matchup for receptions and only 20th for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC @SF 005700000 ***
Cole has scored in three straight games and stepped up in a huge way with Marqise Lee on the shelf last week. The 49ers present a quality matchup for scoring efficiency (10th) but little else. This is the 23rd-best receptions matchup and No. 20 for yardage.

Update: Lee has been ruled out, but Allen Hurns (ankle) has a chance at returning.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @SF 003400000 ***
Update: Hurns was limited in all three sessions this week and is questionable. Consider him closer to doubtful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @SF 003301000 ***
Even though the 49ers have limited tight ends to 3.8 receptions (23rd) for 34.8 yards (27th) per game, this is the fourth-best matchup for finding a touchdown -- the only way Lewis has fantasy value.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @SF 3322 ***
Since Week 10, kickers have missed three of the 16 total kicks afforded by the 49ers. Two of the misses came on the seven field goal attempts, and this is the seventh-worst matchup of Week 16.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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