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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 20, JAC 17 Line (NYJ by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Greg McElroy, Montel Owens

The 5-7 Jets hit the road where they are only 2-3 and meet the 2-10 Jaguars who have only one home win. Both teams are in transition to nowhere and this game may manage to go off without any discernible fantasy value or implications.

The Jets won 32-3 when the Jaguars visited back in week two of last year.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 70 5-40,1
RB Bilal Powell 70,1 2-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50

Pregame Notes: The fun in New York just never ends. As if the Tim Tebow "thing" wasn't enough, now Mark Sanchez was benched after throwing three interceptions last week and Greg McElroy came in and completed 5 of 7 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. All of them went to Jets players. Sanchez was yanked after tossing three interceptions against the visiting Cardinals and now HC Rex Ryan is finally not saying "Mark gives us our best chance to win". It took 13 games and seven losses to get there.

Ryan has not yet named a starter though most believe that McElroy will get the start because really - why not? What is the worst that will happen? Maybe the 7th round pick from 2011 has something. The one biggest rule in coaching a losing season is "look like you are still trying". In either case there won't be any fantasy starter there. Tim Tebow remains conveniently out with a rib injury.

Bilal Powell actually started last week and ran his standard 12 times for 58 yards while Shonn Greene enjoyed his second best game of the year when he gained 104 yards on 24 carries. It is six weeks since he last scored though and he's never gained more than 64 rush yards away from home. At least Powell ran in two scores in St. Louis three weeks ago.

Dustin Keller suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals which was initially said to be a high-ankle sprain but that was later recanted and now it is "just a sprain". Early reports have Keller missing this week. Jeff Cumberland will take his place if needed. He accounted for the lone touchdown pass thrown by McElroy last week.

All bets are off on what to expect if McElroy starts but it is more than reasonable to assume that there will be no fantasy starts from the passing game same as it has been for two months. A new quarterback often starts with a nice game since the defense has nothing to prepare against. This should be more about the run though against a weak defense. That'll benefit both Powell and Greene though not enough to create big expectations.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ @MIA 0000020011 ***
Miami has given up a fair amount of yardage (247.4/game) but little else to quarterbacks. Just six TD passes allowed in five games helps make this a soundly negative matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @MIA 3003300000 *
Powell's status is unclear at this time. Check back Friday for an update.

Update: The Jets will have Powell this week against a matchup that lacks appeal. He has flex potential and is likely to share touches, perhaps three ways.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @MIA 3002200000 **
This is hardly an ideal matchup, and Forte is no better than a fringe consideration. Miami hasn't allowed much through the air (35.6 yards/game) and is one of the tougher groups on the ground (10th). PPR backs have scored one time in the last 28 catches. He was good for 16.7 PPR points in Week 9 last year vs. the Dolphins but only 3.8 in a limited Week 15 showing.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ @MIA 200000000 ***
McGuire was barely involved last week and has a strong opponent in Miami. This is the ninth-hardest matchup in standard scoring. The Dolphins have allowed rushing TDs at a higher clip than they'd like, but it's still only good for 11th. RBs have mustered only 112 offensive yards against this defense.

Update: Bilal Powell is not on the injury report and should have a substantial share of the touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @MIA 005500000 ***
Kerley has emerged recently in his return to New York. The Dolphins are a tougher matchup than the Pats offered a week ago, and receivers have scored only three times in the last five games against them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @MIA 003400000 ***
A fringe play, Anderson has a tough matchup in all statistical markers but yardage allowed per game (153.4). Only three catches in the last five weeks have found the end zone against the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @MIA 004400000 ***
On average, it takes wide receivers 19.7 catches to score against Miami, while accounting for just 11.8 grabs as a team per outing. The positive side to this matchup is WRs have hauled in an average of 154.3 yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ @MIA 006401000 ***
Seferian-Jenkins was involved in a controversial touchdown reversal last week that certainly ticked off his fantasy owners. This week, finding the end zone, legitimately or otherwise, could prove difficult. The Dolphins have surrendered the third-most catches per game but only one TD every 17.5 snares (22nd).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @MIA 2211 ***
Miami ranks as the fourth-toughest opponent for kickers to exploit. This mostly is because five of the 12 field goal attempts missed their mark. The chances have been here, even if the accuracy has not.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 230,2
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is probably the final chance for a win for the Jaguars but that will likely need to wait until next year after they make their first or second overall draft pick and then start the new season. Chad Henne remains the starter and while he remains above the low bar left behind by Blaine Gabbert, he has declined each week. In Buffalo, Henne only completed 18 of 41 passes for 208 yards and a score. He did run in a touchdown to ensure that the rushing game would contain zero fantasy relevance.

Maurice Jones-Drew is not playing this week. He is "very questionable" just as he likely will be next week. Unfortunately, Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion last week and likely will miss this game. That leaves Montel Owens as the last man standing. It's all a bad situation that is only getting worse. And there is less reason to bring Jones-Drew back with every loss.

Marcedes Lewis comes off his best game of the year with 68 yards on four catches and he's consistent within the lowered expectations framework of the Jaguars offense.

But the rest of the receivers are less positive. Justin Blackmon only caught one pass for nine yards last week despite getting six targets. That's full circle back to where he started right before Henne showed up and breathed some life into the passing game. Cecil Shorts caught a touchdown last week for the fourth straight game but suffered a concussion. The expectations is that he'll pass tests this week and return since it was a very mild concussion but will be monitored. Shorts is the only consistently good wideout for the Jaguars and has become a must start player.

So this week the team is down to the 4th string running back who has become a starter, Blackmon is back to square one and Cecil Shorts has to clear his tests to play. All in all, just another day in Jacksonville this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 10100018011 **
Bortles takes on fantasy's second-easiest matchup to exploit, so there is at least a little hope. In 2016, he averaged nearly 25 points per game in two meetings. You could do worst in trying to replace Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Matthew Stafford for one week, but starting Bortles is a risk-reward decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC @IND 6004201000 *
Ivory has quietly become a PPR asset and faces an Indy defense rated as the sixth-worst at stopping backs in this scoring system. Only seven teams have yielded more aerial yards to running backs per game, and two teams have given up TDs with greater ease.

Update: Ivory is in line for more touches with Leonard Fournette listed as a DNP for three straight days and being questionable for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC @IND 5001100000 *
Fantasy's most consistent scorer has an ideal matchup with divisional-rival Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed four rushing TDs in the last five games, translating to one every 28.5 carries. This is the fifth-highest frequency. The number improves to a score every 23.3 touches when the two receiving scores are factored, and backs have managed 154.2 offensive yards.

Update: Fournette is questionable, and all signs point to him being a game-time call after not practicing all week. He may lose some touches to Chris Ivory if he dresses.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @IND 003400000 ***
In one game versus the Colts last season, Hurns caught two balls for 47 yards and a touchdown. This defense has given up catches (12th most) and yards (4th) but only the sixth-lowest touchdown frequency to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @IND 004400000 ***
Indy hasn't cared too much about slowing wide receivers from catching passes or even racking up some yardage, but the Colts have clamped down around the stripe. This defense has given up only three TDs over the past 61 receptions, which is the sixth-toughest ratio. Lee was rather quiet in two games against the Colts last season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC @IND 3333 ***
Lambo is a fringe consideration but should be left on the wire with just two teams on the bye.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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