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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 20, JAC 17 Line (NYJ by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Greg McElroy, Montel Owens

The 5-7 Jets hit the road where they are only 2-3 and meet the 2-10 Jaguars who have only one home win. Both teams are in transition to nowhere and this game may manage to go off without any discernible fantasy value or implications.

The Jets won 32-3 when the Jaguars visited back in week two of last year.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bilal Powell 70,1 2-10
WR Andre Roberts 4-50

Pregame Notes: The fun in New York just never ends. As if the Tim Tebow "thing" wasn't enough, now Mark Sanchez was benched after throwing three interceptions last week and Greg McElroy came in and completed 5 of 7 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. All of them went to Jets players. Sanchez was yanked after tossing three interceptions against the visiting Cardinals and now HC Rex Ryan is finally not saying "Mark gives us our best chance to win". It took 13 games and seven losses to get there.

Ryan has not yet named a starter though most believe that McElroy will get the start because really - why not? What is the worst that will happen? Maybe the 7th round pick from 2011 has something. The one biggest rule in coaching a losing season is "look like you are still trying". In either case there won't be any fantasy starter there. Tim Tebow remains conveniently out with a rib injury.

Bilal Powell actually started last week and ran his standard 12 times for 58 yards while Shonn Greene enjoyed his second best game of the year when he gained 104 yards on 24 carries. It is six weeks since he last scored though and he's never gained more than 64 rush yards away from home. At least Powell ran in two scores in St. Louis three weeks ago.

Dustin Keller suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals which was initially said to be a high-ankle sprain but that was later recanted and now it is "just a sprain". Early reports have Keller missing this week. Jeff Cumberland will take his place if needed. He accounted for the lone touchdown pass thrown by McElroy last week.

All bets are off on what to expect if McElroy starts but it is more than reasonable to assume that there will be no fantasy starts from the passing game same as it has been for two months. A new quarterback often starts with a nice game since the defense has nothing to prepare against. This should be more about the run though against a weak defense. That'll benefit both Powell and Greene though not enough to create big expectations.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ MIN 0000023011 ***
Darnold has gone over 22 points in each of the past two games, tossing five TDs against two picks. Both games were at home. On the road, he has not topped 17.8 points and didn't have 22 in the last two visiting contests combined. The hosting Jets face a Minnesota defense that just lost its slot corner, first-round rookie Mike Hughes, and is without one of its top pass rushers. Josh Allen, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz each were good for at least 26 points, whereas Josh Rosen, a battered Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo couldn't top 19 points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Isaiah Crowell, NYJ MIN 4011100000 **
Crowell sat out Wednesday with a foot injury. One in 98 attempts since Week 1 against the Vikings has found the end zone. Crowell's value lives and dies by the end zone, and yardage will be extremely tough to come by in this one (75.6/game). Play him with tempered expectations and brace for that projected rushing TD to not be there.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ MIN 4004300000 ***
Minnesota has provided two aerial scores on 18 catches, which checks in as the second-softest matchup to exploit. The ground production hasn't been there for the position, with only one of the last 98 carries crossing the stripe. Powell has a hint of PPR appeal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ MIN 006700000 ***
Kearse should see more work with Quincy Enunwa not expected to play. Kearse will play mostly from the slot, from where he stepped up last week. He was targeted 10 times, absorbing nine for 93 yards. PPR gamers should be inclined to consider him as a flex vs. Minnesota's 15th-ranked defense at limiting receptions.

Update: Enunwa has been ruled out, and Terrelle Pryor is doubtful, making Kearse a slightly better fantasy option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ MIN 003400000 ***
While Minnesota has given up five touchdowns in as many games since Week 1, the efficiency rate is the eighth-worst in the NFL. Anderson is a big risk with only three catches as a game-high in any week. The fantasy results without a touchdown have been lineup-killers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ MIN 002201000 *
Minnesota has been a favorable matchup for tight ends. Most of the damage has come via receptions and yardage, however. Herndon is an extremely risky consideration.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, NYJ MIN 2222 ***
No writeup available

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-20

Pregame Notes: This week is probably the final chance for a win for the Jaguars but that will likely need to wait until next year after they make their first or second overall draft pick and then start the new season. Chad Henne remains the starter and while he remains above the low bar left behind by Blaine Gabbert, he has declined each week. In Buffalo, Henne only completed 18 of 41 passes for 208 yards and a score. He did run in a touchdown to ensure that the rushing game would contain zero fantasy relevance.

Maurice Jones-Drew is not playing this week. He is "very questionable" just as he likely will be next week. Unfortunately, Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion last week and likely will miss this game. That leaves Montel Owens as the last man standing. It's all a bad situation that is only getting worse. And there is less reason to bring Jones-Drew back with every loss.

Marcedes Lewis comes off his best game of the year with 68 yards on four catches and he's consistent within the lowered expectations framework of the Jaguars offense.

But the rest of the receivers are less positive. Justin Blackmon only caught one pass for nine yards last week despite getting six targets. That's full circle back to where he started right before Henne showed up and breathed some life into the passing game. Cecil Shorts caught a touchdown last week for the fourth straight game but suffered a concussion. The expectations is that he'll pass tests this week and return since it was a very mild concussion but will be monitored. Shorts is the only consistently good wideout for the Jaguars and has become a must start player.

So this week the team is down to the 4th string running back who has become a starter, Blackmon is back to square one and Cecil Shorts has to clear his tests to play. All in all, just another day in Jacksonville this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC HOU 0000027021 ***
Bortles is either all or nothing this year. Three of his games have produced more than 30 fantasy points, while the other trio were good for only 17 or fewer. Houston has provided only 246.2 yards (seventh fewest) on a weekly basis, with one of every 12.4 connections finding paydirt (13th-easiest rate to exploit). Tom Brady went for 26.1, Eli Manning was good for 22.8, and Andrew Luck shredded them for 40.3 points. Otherwise, the likes of Dak Prescott, both Bills QBs, and Blaine Gabbert all posted fewer than 17.8 points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC HOU 5004301000 ***
Yeldon did not practice Wednesday due to foot and ankle injuries. Being a dual-threat back is what keeps his value afloat when the touchdowns aren't there. The Texans are one of the stronger defenses against the position. The highlight for exploitation purposes come via two receiving TDs allowed on 26 catches. Yeldon is a low-end RB2 in PPR or a fair flex play.

Update: Yeldon was removed from the injury report, and he shouldn't have to contend with Carlos Hyde this week after a trade brought the veteran back into the fold. There is little reason to expect Hyde to see the field in Week 7 without any extended practice time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Keelan Cole, JAC HOU 005601000 *
Despite 15 targets over the last two games and at least eight in half of his games, Cole has only one game with more than 11 PPR points to show for it. The end zone has evaded him since Week 2. Houston allowed him a career day in 2017's Week 15 game (7-186-1).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dede Westbrook, JAC HOU 004600000 ***
Aside from giving up a touchdown per game to receivers, the Texans have done a respectable job at limiting the position. Some if it due to matchups with poor passing offenses. The second-year Westbrook has emerged as the de factor WR1 of this hodgepodge group. He has flier appeal for finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, JAC HOU 003500000 ***
A week after a 15-target game, Moncrief saw three looks and was blanked. The inconsistency can be a killer in fantasy, and it's not like he was playing lights out before the setback. With bye weeks and a mostly negative matchup, consider him a desperation flex.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, JAC HOU 2233 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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