FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 20, JAC 17 Line (NYJ by 2.5)

Players to Watch: Greg McElroy, Montel Owens

The 5-7 Jets hit the road where they are only 2-3 and meet the 2-10 Jaguars who have only one home win. Both teams are in transition to nowhere and this game may manage to go off without any discernible fantasy value or implications.

The Jets won 32-3 when the Jaguars visited back in week two of last year.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC -----
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 180,1
RB Bilal Powell 70,1 2-10
RB Stevan Ridley 70 2-10
WR Eric Decker 5-70,1
WR Jeremy Kerley 4-50
WR Brandon Marshall 8-120,1
TE Jeff Cumberland 5-50
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The fun in New York just never ends. As if the Tim Tebow "thing" wasn't enough, now Mark Sanchez was benched after throwing three interceptions last week and Greg McElroy came in and completed 5 of 7 passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. All of them went to Jets players. Sanchez was yanked after tossing three interceptions against the visiting Cardinals and now HC Rex Ryan is finally not saying "Mark gives us our best chance to win". It took 13 games and seven losses to get there.

Ryan has not yet named a starter though most believe that McElroy will get the start because really - why not? What is the worst that will happen? Maybe the 7th round pick from 2011 has something. The one biggest rule in coaching a losing season is "look like you are still trying". In either case there won't be any fantasy starter there. Tim Tebow remains conveniently out with a rib injury.

Bilal Powell actually started last week and ran his standard 12 times for 58 yards while Shonn Greene enjoyed his second best game of the year when he gained 104 yards on 24 carries. It is six weeks since he last scored though and he's never gained more than 64 rush yards away from home. At least Powell ran in two scores in St. Louis three weeks ago.

Dustin Keller suffered an ankle sprain against the Cardinals which was initially said to be a high-ankle sprain but that was later recanted and now it is "just a sprain". Early reports have Keller missing this week. Jeff Cumberland will take his place if needed. He accounted for the lone touchdown pass thrown by McElroy last week.

All bets are off on what to expect if McElroy starts but it is more than reasonable to assume that there will be no fantasy starts from the passing game same as it has been for two months. A new quarterback often starts with a nice game since the defense has nothing to prepare against. This should be more about the run though against a weak defense. That'll benefit both Powell and Greene though not enough to create big expectations.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 24 20 28 11
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 28 24 8 30 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @BUF 0000028020 ***
Fitzmagic threw two TDs in the earlier meeting with Buffalo and has multiple touchdowns in four of five and 12 of 14 full games this year. He's also been north of 295 yards in three of the last four. No reason to think he can't reprise his earlier success against the Bills, especially with the added motivation of facing one of his (many) former employers with a playoff spot on the line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @BUF 7002200000 ***
The Bills have allowed five straight backfields to rush for at least 110 yards against them, so even if Ivory's touches are compromised by Bilal Powell he should approach his 18-99 from the earlier meeting. However, the lower volume diminishes Ivory's fantasy upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @BUF 005801000 ***
Marshall has scored in seven of his last eight, including a touchdown in the earlier meeting with the Bills. Since that matchup the Bills have given up 9-117 to Amendola, 9-160-1 to Maclin, 5-88-1 to Hopkins, and 6-153-1 to DJax. In other words, all systems go once again for Marshall.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @BUF 007601000 ***
The league's ultimate wingman scored in the earlier meeting with Buffalo, has scored in three straight, has scored or topped 100 yards in five straight, and should once again be the best sideman since Oliver Hardy teamed with Stan Laurel against a Buffalo defense that's allowed multiple receivers to score or top 60 yards--often both--in 11 of 15 games this season.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @BUF 003500000 ***
With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker taking big bites there often isn't enough left over for the likes of Enunwa--especially with Kenbrell Thompkins battling for a share as well. It's not as if the Bills are a shutdown secondary, but it's tough to trust tertiary guys to deliver the fantasy goods.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, NYJ @BUF 1133 ***
The Sex Pistols sang
"Never mind the Bullocks", but
doesn't apply here

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ -----
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 230,2
RB Bernard Pierce 20
WR Justin Blackmon 5-80,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: This week is probably the final chance for a win for the Jaguars but that will likely need to wait until next year after they make their first or second overall draft pick and then start the new season. Chad Henne remains the starter and while he remains above the low bar left behind by Blaine Gabbert, he has declined each week. In Buffalo, Henne only completed 18 of 41 passes for 208 yards and a score. He did run in a touchdown to ensure that the rushing game would contain zero fantasy relevance.

Maurice Jones-Drew is not playing this week. He is "very questionable" just as he likely will be next week. Unfortunately, Rashad Jennings suffered a concussion last week and likely will miss this game. That leaves Montel Owens as the last man standing. It's all a bad situation that is only getting worse. And there is less reason to bring Jones-Drew back with every loss.

Marcedes Lewis comes off his best game of the year with 68 yards on four catches and he's consistent within the lowered expectations framework of the Jaguars offense.

But the rest of the receivers are less positive. Justin Blackmon only caught one pass for nine yards last week despite getting six targets. That's full circle back to where he started right before Henne showed up and breathed some life into the passing game. Cecil Shorts caught a touchdown last week for the fourth straight game but suffered a concussion. The expectations is that he'll pass tests this week and return since it was a very mild concussion but will be monitored. Shorts is the only consistently good wideout for the Jaguars and has become a must start player.

So this week the team is down to the 4th string running back who has become a starter, Blackmon is back to square one and Cecil Shorts has to clear his tests to play. All in all, just another day in Jacksonville this year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 23 31 13 27 26 30
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 11 27 9 26 20 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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