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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: PHI 17, TB 30 Line: (TB by 7)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Vincent Jackson

3-9 Eagles have lost their last eight games and are 1-5 in road games anyway. The 6-6 Buccaneers have lost their last two but are at home where they are 3-3 this year. All you can hope for here is that the Eagles make a game of it like they did in Dallas. The Buccaneers have no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
RB Darren Sproles 6-60
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
TE Brent Celek 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Eagles enjoyed a rare lead in Dallas and looked like an upset was in the making but even the Cowboys in December can beat these Eagles. Offensive line guru Howard Mudd has announced he is retiring at the end of the year. The Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn was just fired. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Michael Vick was just benched for the rest of the year so the team could evaluate Nick Foles. It is all starting to smack of an impending high school graduation where you still have to go to classes but nothing really matters.

Foles looked nearly serviceable against the Cowboys when he completed 22 of 34 for 251 yards and one touchdown. But that was his first score in three starts and he has a long way to go to make anyone comfortable that he is anything more than the future back-up.

Bryce Brown is a great lesson for fantasy football. He did nothing for the whole season and once LeSean McCoy went out with a concussion, Brown gained 189 total yards and two scores versus the Panthers and followed that up with 183 yards and two scores in Dallas. For a guy who banged around colleges with a spotty resume' and potential character issues he's been the best back in the NFL over the last two weeks.

Yes, whenever McCoy returns they are not going to forget about Brown. Certainly not this year and that is only if McCoy returns. Not much incentive for him to play and risk further injury in a meaningless season. McCoy is still in Phase 3 of his recovery with yet another go pass after that.

The passing game under Foles rarely involves much. Jeremy Maclin was already marginal and now is a marked man. Riley Cooper steps in to replace DeSean Jackson and while he scored in Dallas, he only had two receptions for 31 yards. Damaris Johnson gets more snaps but is still unlikely to record more than one catch.

This offense is just going to be unreliable for the rest of the year since they will be trying out new things and the focus is not always on putting the best players on the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 21 21 21 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI CHI 10000024020 ***
Chicago has been rather strong against quarterbacks. Matt Stafford was above average last week, accounting for two of the three TDs this group has surrendered in the last four games. Wentz has some upside, but he's more safely a low-end starter than an elite option in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI CHI 901000000 ***
Big plays have kept Ajayi's fantasy value afloat of late. The Bears have been a midrange matchup, which makes him a fringe choice. The position has averaged 88.5 rushing yards on 24.5 attempts, and on in 32.7 carries has found the end zone (10th-highest frequency).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI CHI 4011100000 ***
Clement has proven to be valuable of late. The matchup is favorable, especially for scoring touchdowns, and Chicago has yielded the ninth-most receptions a week. One of 24 catches has scored vs. the Bears since Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI CHI 300000000 ***
Flip a coin ... Blount is useless without scoring a touchdown. The matchup is at least favorable for that to be accomplished, but game flow will dictate his success.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI CHI 004701000 ***
Chicago has given up the seventh-highest weekly average for receiving yardage, but that is about all. This is the ninth-worst matchup for scoring touchdowns.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI CHI 004501000 ***
The only way Agholor offers fantasy value is if he scores a touchdown, which is something Chicago has done a good job of limiting. Only two of the last 44 balls have scored. Overall, this is a moderate matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI CHI 002200000 ***
Smith's only return on investment comes by way of a touchdown. Chicago, conversely, hasn't allowed more than two of them in the last four games against wide receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI CHI 005600000 **
Ertz has cooled lately. The matchup isn't ideal, either. Da Bears have no allowed a score in the last four games against tight ends, rating as the second-hardest opponent overall.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI CHI 2233 *
Elliott is in the concussion protocol and is unclear for this week. The Bears have given up 7.8 fantasy points, on average, which is in the middle of the league.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 180,1
RB Doug Martin 90,2 3-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 5-40
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Two straight losses but both were against division leaders and solid defenses. And both were by a touchdown or less. The Buccaneers are still on the outside looking in for a wildcard but the next three games will all be competitive and with any luck, the Falcons will mail in week 17 having already clinched all they can get.

Josh Freeman had a break from his two touchdowns games in week 12 versus the Falcons but picked it right back up in Denver. That makes seven of the last eight games featuring at least two scores or more from Freeman and usually right around 250 yards. He's been consistent and nearly error free with only three interceptions in the last seven games.

Doug Martin's productive ways took a downturn these last two weeks when the Falcons held him to only 63 total yards - but two touchdowns. In Denver, Martin totaled 98 yards but was unable to pop off any game breakers. He's still plenty productive nearly every week thanks to his role as a receiver.

Dallas Clark scored in three of the last four games though his yardage varies wildly from game to game depending on what the opponent gives and takes. As expected, Vincent Jackson was held in check by Champ Bailey last week and ended his string of 90+ yard games. But Mike Williams took up the mantle and ended with 93 yards on six catches and scored once.

The Eagles have been good against the run this year though on the road last week they gave up 109 rush yards and a score. The Philly secondary is where the damage is done with the last three games giving up nine passing touchdowns and everyone scores at least once. All but three opponents scored more than once. This should be a good game against a dispirited Eagles team back on the road after thinking they had a chance last week. The Bucs certainly won't overlook them but if the Eagles do not put up much of a fight, then the Bucs won't press to score too much. Makes playing the Eagles a tougher challenge to predict.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 24 7 17 11 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, TB @ATL 0000018011 ***
Jameis Winston will not be available in Week 12. Fitzpatrick is a moderate risk-reward gamble for owners in DFS or deep leagues. Since we don't have byes, there likely won't be much demand to insert him in a starting lineup. Atlanta has yielded a TD every 17.7 completions (7th) but only 215.4 yards a game (26th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @ATL 4002100000 ***
Martin went for 14.6 PPR points in his lone meeting with the Falcons last year. Atlanta has yielded rushing scores at the lowest rate, and one in 32 receiving hauls have made it into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @ATL 006701000 ***
Evans crushed it in two meetings last year, but the Buccaneers were a much better offense at that point. He scored three times in two games and finished with 16 catches for 249 yards. In the past five weeks, Atlanta has surrendered only three scores and the sixth-fewest fantasy points a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB @ATL 003400000 ***
Receivers have posted only three TDs over the last 47 catches against Atlanta. Allowing 9.4 receptions (28th) and 124.2 yards (27th) per game, this is easily one of the toughest defenses going right now for the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE O.J. Howard, TB @ATL 003300000 **
Howard's talent is evident, but his limited role and touchdown dependency make him tough to start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @ATL 001100000 ***
Tight ends have averaged five catches for 43 yards and a TD every 12.5 receptions vs. Atlanta. Brate produced 21.3 fantasy points in two combined games last season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @ATL 2211 ***
Kickers have missed four field goal tries, which takes this from being potentially the seventh-best matchup to 14th. The position has averaged the fifth-most three-point attempts.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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