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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: PHI 17, TB 30 Line: (TB by 7)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Vincent Jackson

3-9 Eagles have lost their last eight games and are 1-5 in road games anyway. The 6-6 Buccaneers have lost their last two but are at home where they are 3-3 this year. All you can hope for here is that the Eagles make a game of it like they did in Dallas. The Buccaneers have no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Ryan Mathews 70 2-10
RB Darren Sproles 6-60
TE Brent Celek 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Eagles enjoyed a rare lead in Dallas and looked like an upset was in the making but even the Cowboys in December can beat these Eagles. Offensive line guru Howard Mudd has announced he is retiring at the end of the year. The Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn was just fired. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Michael Vick was just benched for the rest of the year so the team could evaluate Nick Foles. It is all starting to smack of an impending high school graduation where you still have to go to classes but nothing really matters.

Foles looked nearly serviceable against the Cowboys when he completed 22 of 34 for 251 yards and one touchdown. But that was his first score in three starts and he has a long way to go to make anyone comfortable that he is anything more than the future back-up.

Bryce Brown is a great lesson for fantasy football. He did nothing for the whole season and once LeSean McCoy went out with a concussion, Brown gained 189 total yards and two scores versus the Panthers and followed that up with 183 yards and two scores in Dallas. For a guy who banged around colleges with a spotty resume' and potential character issues he's been the best back in the NFL over the last two weeks.

Yes, whenever McCoy returns they are not going to forget about Brown. Certainly not this year and that is only if McCoy returns. Not much incentive for him to play and risk further injury in a meaningless season. McCoy is still in Phase 3 of his recovery with yet another go pass after that.

The passing game under Foles rarely involves much. Jeremy Maclin was already marginal and now is a marked man. Riley Cooper steps in to replace DeSean Jackson and while he scored in Dallas, he only had two receptions for 31 yards. Damaris Johnson gets more snaps but is still unlikely to record more than one catch.

This offense is just going to be unreliable for the rest of the year since they will be trying out new things and the focus is not always on putting the best players on the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 21 21 21 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI WAS 0000022011 ***
The matchup suggests a streaming play, but the desperation of Washington could play a huge role. The Redskins have allowed quarterbacks to average 26.8 fantasy points and 290.5 yards per game. The position, since Week 8, has mustered aerial nine TDs in four games, plus one on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Mathews, PHI WAS 8011100000 *
Mathews returned to practice Wednesday, which suggests he should be in line to play ... how much is anyone's guess. Keep him pegged as a flex in the worst-case scenario. At least the matchup is sweet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI WAS 1005300000 ***
Three running backs with one great matchup ... fantasy cannibalization? Probably. Sproles tackles fantasy's eighth most generous opponent for catches allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI WAS 2001100000 ***
No team has been a bigger turnstile for touchdowns than the Redskins have in the last five weeks. The matchup is right, so Smallwood may get on track.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI WAS 004600000 *
Matthews should be back this week but may not be 100 percent. Check Friday for an update on his status. He's likely to draw Josh Norman if he goes, so look elsewhere if you have a better matchup.

Update: Matthews was a full-go Thursday and Friday, which is great news since the Eagles should be without Dorial Green-Beckham.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI WAS 003400000 ***
Update: No DGB means more for Agholor, but Jordan Matthews is back this week, so the second-year wideout will remain unplayable in fantasy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI WAS 007601000 ***
Tight ends have averaged 6.5 catches for 76 yards and 0.5 TDs over the last four games against the Redskins. Ertz caught one pass for 22 yards the last time these teams met.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI WAS 2222 ***
Washington has allowed the second most extra point attempts but the sixth fewest field goal tries per contest in the last five weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 90,2 3-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 5-40
WR Vincent Jackson 6-100,1
WR Cecil Shorts
TE Brandon Myers 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: Two straight losses but both were against division leaders and solid defenses. And both were by a touchdown or less. The Buccaneers are still on the outside looking in for a wildcard but the next three games will all be competitive and with any luck, the Falcons will mail in week 17 having already clinched all they can get.

Josh Freeman had a break from his two touchdowns games in week 12 versus the Falcons but picked it right back up in Denver. That makes seven of the last eight games featuring at least two scores or more from Freeman and usually right around 250 yards. He's been consistent and nearly error free with only three interceptions in the last seven games.

Doug Martin's productive ways took a downturn these last two weeks when the Falcons held him to only 63 total yards - but two touchdowns. In Denver, Martin totaled 98 yards but was unable to pop off any game breakers. He's still plenty productive nearly every week thanks to his role as a receiver.

Dallas Clark scored in three of the last four games though his yardage varies wildly from game to game depending on what the opponent gives and takes. As expected, Vincent Jackson was held in check by Champ Bailey last week and ended his string of 90+ yard games. But Mike Williams took up the mantle and ended with 93 yards on six catches and scored once.

The Eagles have been good against the run this year though on the road last week they gave up 109 rush yards and a score. The Philly secondary is where the damage is done with the last three games giving up nine passing touchdowns and everyone scores at least once. All but three opponents scored more than once. This should be a good game against a dispirited Eagles team back on the road after thinking they had a chance last week. The Bucs certainly won't overlook them but if the Eagles do not put up much of a fight, then the Bucs won't press to score too much. Makes playing the Eagles a tougher challenge to predict.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 24 7 17 11 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB NO 10000029020 ***
New Orleans ranks evenly against quarterbacks as a neutral matchup in the last five weeks. Sure, Matt Stafford beat them down last week, so there's hope Winston does similar damage. The Bucs don't have the same weapons, but they are not far behind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB NO 6003200000 **
Strangely, the Saints are a good run defense against fantasy backs. Martin just isn't right and has struggled. Nevertheless, he deserves a low-end lineup spot this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB NO 2001100000 *
Quizz has returned to health but could lose touches if Charles Sims goes this week. Either way, he shouldn't be counted on for playoff leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB NO 007801000 ***
Evans was held in check last week against the Bolts, but that shouldn't be a sign of things to come. New Orleans has given up six TDs in this last five games to receivers, plus the 11th most fantasy points, on average, in this period.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Freddie Martino, TB NO 004600000 **
Martino was the surprise hero a week ago. With such a limited track record, gamers may want to err on the side of caution. The Saints at least present a top-12 matchup for those few brave owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, TB NO 005500000 ***
The Saints are a fine matchup if you want to take the chance, but there is no justifiable reason in which Shepard should meet your starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB NO 005601000 ***
Brate faces a Saints defense that has yielded averages of 4.6 catches, 65.6 yards and a touchdown every 11.5 snares. Brate continues to have a red zone presence and can corral a touchdown with the attention paid to Mike Evans.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Roberto Aguayo, TB NO 4322 ***
This is the best matchup a kicker can face in Week 14 when using data over the last five weeks. The downside comes with Aguayo's erratic accuracy.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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