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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: PHI 17, TB 30 Line: (TB by 7)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Vincent Jackson

3-9 Eagles have lost their last eight games and are 1-5 in road games anyway. The 6-6 Buccaneers have lost their last two but are at home where they are 3-3 this year. All you can hope for here is that the Eagles make a game of it like they did in Dallas. The Buccaneers have no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
QB Mark Sanchez 190,1
RB Darren Sproles 6-60
WR Riley Cooper 3-20,1
WR Jeremy Maclin 5-60
TE Brent Celek 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Eagles enjoyed a rare lead in Dallas and looked like an upset was in the making but even the Cowboys in December can beat these Eagles. Offensive line guru Howard Mudd has announced he is retiring at the end of the year. The Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn was just fired. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Michael Vick was just benched for the rest of the year so the team could evaluate Nick Foles. It is all starting to smack of an impending high school graduation where you still have to go to classes but nothing really matters.

Foles looked nearly serviceable against the Cowboys when he completed 22 of 34 for 251 yards and one touchdown. But that was his first score in three starts and he has a long way to go to make anyone comfortable that he is anything more than the future back-up.

Bryce Brown is a great lesson for fantasy football. He did nothing for the whole season and once LeSean McCoy went out with a concussion, Brown gained 189 total yards and two scores versus the Panthers and followed that up with 183 yards and two scores in Dallas. For a guy who banged around colleges with a spotty resume' and potential character issues he's been the best back in the NFL over the last two weeks.

Yes, whenever McCoy returns they are not going to forget about Brown. Certainly not this year and that is only if McCoy returns. Not much incentive for him to play and risk further injury in a meaningless season. McCoy is still in Phase 3 of his recovery with yet another go pass after that.

The passing game under Foles rarely involves much. Jeremy Maclin was already marginal and now is a marked man. Riley Cooper steps in to replace DeSean Jackson and while he scored in Dallas, he only had two receptions for 31 yards. Damaris Johnson gets more snaps but is still unlikely to record more than one catch.

This offense is just going to be unreliable for the rest of the year since they will be trying out new things and the focus is not always on putting the best players on the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 21 21 21 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Nick Foles, PHI @SF 0000027021 ****
Foles has rolled out 300-plus yards in every game thus far; the once-vaunted Niners D has allowed multiple TD tosses in each of the past two games. No reason to think Foles can't keep it up here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @SF 6004300000 ***
DeMarco Murray and Andre Ellington had solid outings against the Niners, but those both came away from Levi Stadium. Matt Forte's visit to the Bay wasn't nearly as productive, so limit your expectations for McCoy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @SF 2005300000 *
The Niners aren't giving up much to opposing backs via ground or air, making Sproles a tricky fantasy play given that LeSean McCoy should see the majority of the Eagles' backfield touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @SF 005501000 ****
Maclin's target volume makes him a must-play, and while San Francisco hasn't been soft against opposing wideouts there's been enough put on the board against them that using Maclin here shouldn't be a concern.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @SF 004501000 ***
Matthews emerged as a red zone favorite last week, but he's nursing an ab injury so check the injury report on Friday before chasing last week's scores.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @SF 004400000 ***
At this juncture Cooper is too far down the Philly passing game pecking order to be banked on for fantasy contributions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @SF 004500000 ***
San Fran has been pretty tough on tight ends, but Ertz is a big enough part of the offense that he's at least worthy of fantasy consideration regardless of matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, PHI @SF 3322 ****
Parkey's had multiple field goals in each game this season; no reason to think he can't extend that streak against the Niners.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 90,2 3-20
WR Vincent Jackson 6-100,1
WR Louis Murphy 4-50
TE Brandon Myers 6-80,1

Pregame Notes: Two straight losses but both were against division leaders and solid defenses. And both were by a touchdown or less. The Buccaneers are still on the outside looking in for a wildcard but the next three games will all be competitive and with any luck, the Falcons will mail in week 17 having already clinched all they can get.

Josh Freeman had a break from his two touchdowns games in week 12 versus the Falcons but picked it right back up in Denver. That makes seven of the last eight games featuring at least two scores or more from Freeman and usually right around 250 yards. He's been consistent and nearly error free with only three interceptions in the last seven games.

Doug Martin's productive ways took a downturn these last two weeks when the Falcons held him to only 63 total yards - but two touchdowns. In Denver, Martin totaled 98 yards but was unable to pop off any game breakers. He's still plenty productive nearly every week thanks to his role as a receiver.

Dallas Clark scored in three of the last four games though his yardage varies wildly from game to game depending on what the opponent gives and takes. As expected, Vincent Jackson was held in check by Champ Bailey last week and ended his string of 90+ yard games. But Mike Williams took up the mantle and ended with 93 yards on six catches and scored once.

The Eagles have been good against the run this year though on the road last week they gave up 109 rush yards and a score. The Philly secondary is where the damage is done with the last three games giving up nine passing touchdowns and everyone scores at least once. All but three opponents scored more than once. This should be a good game against a dispirited Eagles team back on the road after thinking they had a chance last week. The Bucs certainly won't overlook them but if the Eagles do not put up much of a fight, then the Bucs won't press to score too much. Makes playing the Eagles a tougher challenge to predict.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 24 7 17 11 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mike Glennon, TB @PIT 30000019011 ****
Glennon is your likely starter in place of the injured/ineffective Josh McCown, but don't expect much out of the gate. Not that the Steelers have been lights out, but none of the QBs they've faced have put up much in the way of helpful fantasy numbers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB @PIT 6011100000 *
Martin is expected back for this game, but he's been away for so long he'll need to show us something before he can be plugged back into a self-respecting fantasy lineup with any degree of confidence.
Update: Martin practiced fully all week, but it remains to be seen just how quickly he'll reclaim his share of the carries--or how effective he'll be with them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bobby Rainey, TB @PIT 300000000 ***
While Doug Martin is expected to return to the lineup this week, he has done nothing to suggest he's ready for prime time, a fantasy start, or a full feature-back workload. If Rainey doesn't fumble away his opportunities again he makes an intriguing play against a Steelers defense that served up solid fantasy games to the likes of Terrance West and Bernard Pierce.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @PIT 005500000 ***
Glennon seemed locked on Evans early on in his 2014 debut, even though it was Vincent Jackson who wound up with the touchdown. There are too many variables at play here for Evans to be trusted with a fantasy start just yet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Vincent Jackson, TB @PIT 004500000 ***
Mike Glennon inexplicably couldn't find VJax early on, and while he did connect with him for the Bucs' lone offensive touchdown last week Jackson's fantasy value is on probation until we know for sure how Glennon will divvy up targets between Jackson and Mike Evans. On the bright side, similarly sized Kelvin Benjamin had a solid showing against the Bucs last week; then again, both Jackson and Evans are big boys.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brandon Myers, TB @PIT 005401000 ***
Myers has done nothing of his own volition to warrant a fantasy start, but the Steelers have struggled to defend the position--only three teams have given up more fantasy points to tight ends this year--so if Austin Seferian-Jenkins remains sidelined he makes an intriguing plug-in play with six teams on the bye.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Patrick Murray, TB @PIT 1022 ***
The Steelers have served up multiple field goals to every kicker they've faced this season. However, multiple field goals would be at least one more than Murray has for the entire season so you can likely get your fantasy kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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