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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: PHI 17, TB 30 Line: (TB by 7)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Vincent Jackson

3-9 Eagles have lost their last eight games and are 1-5 in road games anyway. The 6-6 Buccaneers have lost their last two but are at home where they are 3-3 this year. All you can hope for here is that the Eagles make a game of it like they did in Dallas. The Buccaneers have no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
RB Darren Sproles 6-60
WR Golden Tate 4-50,1
WR Mike Wallace 4-70,1

Pregame Notes: The Eagles enjoyed a rare lead in Dallas and looked like an upset was in the making but even the Cowboys in December can beat these Eagles. Offensive line guru Howard Mudd has announced he is retiring at the end of the year. The Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn was just fired. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Michael Vick was just benched for the rest of the year so the team could evaluate Nick Foles. It is all starting to smack of an impending high school graduation where you still have to go to classes but nothing really matters.

Foles looked nearly serviceable against the Cowboys when he completed 22 of 34 for 251 yards and one touchdown. But that was his first score in three starts and he has a long way to go to make anyone comfortable that he is anything more than the future back-up.

Bryce Brown is a great lesson for fantasy football. He did nothing for the whole season and once LeSean McCoy went out with a concussion, Brown gained 189 total yards and two scores versus the Panthers and followed that up with 183 yards and two scores in Dallas. For a guy who banged around colleges with a spotty resume' and potential character issues he's been the best back in the NFL over the last two weeks.

Yes, whenever McCoy returns they are not going to forget about Brown. Certainly not this year and that is only if McCoy returns. Not much incentive for him to play and risk further injury in a meaningless season. McCoy is still in Phase 3 of his recovery with yet another go pass after that.

The passing game under Foles rarely involves much. Jeremy Maclin was already marginal and now is a marked man. Riley Cooper steps in to replace DeSean Jackson and while he scored in Dallas, he only had two receptions for 31 yards. Damaris Johnson gets more snaps but is still unlikely to record more than one catch.

This offense is just going to be unreliable for the rest of the year since they will be trying out new things and the focus is not always on putting the best players on the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 21 21 21 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Nick Foles, PHI @LAR 0000025022 ***
The Rams have been much better in the secondary since Aqib Talib returned two weeks ago. Granted, the matchups were not exactly elite. Carson Wentz is not expected to play, making Foles the expected starter. Keep him out of fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Josh Adams, PHI @LAR 500000000 ***
Adams has really cooled off in the last two games and is starting to show he is basically an anchor without a plunge into the end zone. Los Angeles hasn't been overly kind to more powerful backs not named Mike Davis. Only one of the last 92 carries in the past four games has scored. Find a smarter bet for backfield help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @LAR 2004300000 ***
The well-seasoned veteran could be a sly play in PPR, but there isn't a great deal of upside or positive risk-reward ratio working in his favor. The Rams have allowed a good deal of work to pass-catching backs, but with Nick Foles starting, and Sproles being generally limited in usage, keep your expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Golden Tate, PHI @LAR 003401000 ***
Tate is a PPR flex flier with Nick Foles probably under center. The Rams have allowed several large reception totals in recent games, though the defense has clamped down on lesser passing attacks vs. DET and CHI with the return of Aqib Talib. Tate may be the safest bet out of this receiving corps, but that doesn't say too much given how risky Foles would make all of the options.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @LAR 003400000 ***
Removing the Week 11 track meet with KC, and Tyler Lockett is the only WR to score against the Rams in the last four games. Over the course of the year, this is a soundly neutral matchup for the position. Agholor should be catching passes from Nick Foles with Carson Wentz back on the mend.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @LAR 002300000 ***
Jeffery rebounded last week after skidding for five weeks. He likely has Nick Foles under center this week and faces a Rams defense that has been all over the map this year. In recent weeks, though, it has strengthened with the return of CB Aqib Talib and the decision to play Marcus Peters in more zone coverage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @LAR 006701000 ***
The Rams have been susceptible to tight ends all year. Most of the work has been via receptions and yardage. Only four of the 63 balls have scored. Ertz is as good as they come, and there is no reason to get away from him now.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @LAR 3322 ***
No writeup available

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 180,1
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 5-40

Pregame Notes: Two straight losses but both were against division leaders and solid defenses. And both were by a touchdown or less. The Buccaneers are still on the outside looking in for a wildcard but the next three games will all be competitive and with any luck, the Falcons will mail in week 17 having already clinched all they can get.

Josh Freeman had a break from his two touchdowns games in week 12 versus the Falcons but picked it right back up in Denver. That makes seven of the last eight games featuring at least two scores or more from Freeman and usually right around 250 yards. He's been consistent and nearly error free with only three interceptions in the last seven games.

Doug Martin's productive ways took a downturn these last two weeks when the Falcons held him to only 63 total yards - but two touchdowns. In Denver, Martin totaled 98 yards but was unable to pop off any game breakers. He's still plenty productive nearly every week thanks to his role as a receiver.

Dallas Clark scored in three of the last four games though his yardage varies wildly from game to game depending on what the opponent gives and takes. As expected, Vincent Jackson was held in check by Champ Bailey last week and ended his string of 90+ yard games. But Mike Williams took up the mantle and ended with 93 yards on six catches and scored once.

The Eagles have been good against the run this year though on the road last week they gave up 109 rush yards and a score. The Philly secondary is where the damage is done with the last three games giving up nine passing touchdowns and everyone scores at least once. All but three opponents scored more than once. This should be a good game against a dispirited Eagles team back on the road after thinking they had a chance last week. The Bucs certainly won't overlook them but if the Eagles do not put up much of a fight, then the Bucs won't press to score too much. Makes playing the Eagles a tougher challenge to predict.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 24 7 17 11 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB @BAL 40100021012 ***
Baltimore has presented a terrible matchup all year and should deter gamers from taking a chance on Winston. He has only one 300-yard game in his last five appearances and has a pair of scoring strikes of each of his last four. He's a sound play in two-QB situations but should be benched if advancing to your league title is at play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Peyton Barber, TB @BAL 4002100000 ***
The matchup is harsh, and Barber should be kept far away from lineups this week. No team has been tougher against the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB @BAL 1004300000 ***
Basically one in 20 receptions against the Ravens has scored by a running back this year, and this is the worst matchup overall in PPR. Rodgers has extremely thin appeal for PPR only, and there is little reason to include him in lineups for playoff matchups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB @BAL 006600000 ***
The Ravens have been strong against WRs in 2018, giving up only nine scores over 13 games and 144 receptions. Just four teams have been better in PPR, and the high score was 29.9 PPR points in Week 2. Tyreek Hill went for 22.5 last week, but a good chunk came from one play. Evans is playable, but there is a lot more downside than up in this one. Baltimore has given up just one WR touchdown since Week 9.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB @BAL 004500000 ***
Humphries has five scores in his last seven games and has seen at least six targets in the last three games. He faces a brutal matchup in Week 15 and is best left in reserve without a clearer option. PPR gamers can consider him a low-tier flex play out of desperation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Godwin, TB @BAL 003400000 ***
Godwin typically offers nothing of note without going into the end zone -- something the Ravens have been stellar against of late. In the last five weeks, only John Ross has scored. The second-year receiver has value in DFS only this week, and that is a stretch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB @BAL 002201000 **
Brate should be in all lineups possible this week. The Ravens have struggled throughout the year at limiting the position, and this has been especially evident in the last five weeks. This is the seventh-best matchup for catches, No. 8 for yardage and No. 3 for touchdown frequency.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, TB @BAL 0022 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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