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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: PHI 17, TB 30 Line: (TB by 7)

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, Vincent Jackson

3-9 Eagles have lost their last eight games and are 1-5 in road games anyway. The 6-6 Buccaneers have lost their last two but are at home where they are 3-3 this year. All you can hope for here is that the Eagles make a game of it like they did in Dallas. The Buccaneers have no room for error if they want to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB -----
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI @ TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 260,1
RB Darren Sproles 6-60
WR Torrey Smith 5-90,1
TE Brent Celek 3-40

Pregame Notes: The Eagles enjoyed a rare lead in Dallas and looked like an upset was in the making but even the Cowboys in December can beat these Eagles. Offensive line guru Howard Mudd has announced he is retiring at the end of the year. The Defensive Line coach Jim Washburn was just fired. DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Michael Vick was just benched for the rest of the year so the team could evaluate Nick Foles. It is all starting to smack of an impending high school graduation where you still have to go to classes but nothing really matters.

Foles looked nearly serviceable against the Cowboys when he completed 22 of 34 for 251 yards and one touchdown. But that was his first score in three starts and he has a long way to go to make anyone comfortable that he is anything more than the future back-up.

Bryce Brown is a great lesson for fantasy football. He did nothing for the whole season and once LeSean McCoy went out with a concussion, Brown gained 189 total yards and two scores versus the Panthers and followed that up with 183 yards and two scores in Dallas. For a guy who banged around colleges with a spotty resume' and potential character issues he's been the best back in the NFL over the last two weeks.

Yes, whenever McCoy returns they are not going to forget about Brown. Certainly not this year and that is only if McCoy returns. Not much incentive for him to play and risk further injury in a meaningless season. McCoy is still in Phase 3 of his recovery with yet another go pass after that.

The passing game under Foles rarely involves much. Jeremy Maclin was already marginal and now is a marked man. Riley Cooper steps in to replace DeSean Jackson and while he scored in Dallas, he only had two receptions for 31 yards. Damaris Johnson gets more snaps but is still unlikely to record more than one catch.

This offense is just going to be unreliable for the rest of the year since they will be trying out new things and the focus is not always on putting the best players on the field.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 21 21 21 22 32
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 29 18 31 21 6 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @KC 0000025011 ***
Pressuring Wentz will dictate how this one goes ... he is capable of escaping tight situations, and the young QB does a great job of keeping his eyes downfield. He won't see Eric Berry staring back, either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI @KC 4011100000 **
KC is vulnerable up the middle, as evidenced by Mike Gillislee scoring three short TDs in Week 1. Blount is a situational player whose value is predicated on game flow. Think standard-scoring appeal for an RB2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @KC 1005500000 ***
Sproles continues to chip away out of the backfield. KC allowed only four receptions for 38 yards vs. the Pats even when NE was in comeback mode, so keep grand expectations in check.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @KC 005600000 ***
Following a brilliant offseason and training camp, Agholor emerged in Week 1 in a big way. Granted, his TD was mostly created by Carson Wentz making a play last 40 minutes or so and leading to a breakdown in coverage, but it still happened. The third-year wideout could be on the cusp of a big season, but he has a stiff matchup to overcome first.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @KC 004600000 ***
Marcus Peters is a monster and should erase Jeffery from the game plan more often than not. The Chiefs were otherwise strong on the backend last week, even after losing Eric Berry.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI @KC 002200000 ***
Smith is a boom-bust type and is basically useless without crossing the stripe. There's an off-chance this happens with the focus being on Alshon Jeffery.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @KC 005501000 ***
Without Eric Berry, KC's secondary could be vulnerable to Ertz's ability down the seam. He should be viewed as a weekly starter for most gaming situations.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI -----
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TB vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 10 180,1
RB Doug Martin 90,2 3-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 20 5-40
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Two straight losses but both were against division leaders and solid defenses. And both were by a touchdown or less. The Buccaneers are still on the outside looking in for a wildcard but the next three games will all be competitive and with any luck, the Falcons will mail in week 17 having already clinched all they can get.

Josh Freeman had a break from his two touchdowns games in week 12 versus the Falcons but picked it right back up in Denver. That makes seven of the last eight games featuring at least two scores or more from Freeman and usually right around 250 yards. He's been consistent and nearly error free with only three interceptions in the last seven games.

Doug Martin's productive ways took a downturn these last two weeks when the Falcons held him to only 63 total yards - but two touchdowns. In Denver, Martin totaled 98 yards but was unable to pop off any game breakers. He's still plenty productive nearly every week thanks to his role as a receiver.

Dallas Clark scored in three of the last four games though his yardage varies wildly from game to game depending on what the opponent gives and takes. As expected, Vincent Jackson was held in check by Champ Bailey last week and ended his string of 90+ yard games. But Mike Williams took up the mantle and ended with 93 yards on six catches and scored once.

The Eagles have been good against the run this year though on the road last week they gave up 109 rush yards and a score. The Philly secondary is where the damage is done with the last three games giving up nine passing touchdowns and everyone scores at least once. All but three opponents scored more than once. This should be a good game against a dispirited Eagles team back on the road after thinking they had a chance last week. The Bucs certainly won't overlook them but if the Eagles do not put up much of a fight, then the Bucs won't press to score too much. Makes playing the Eagles a tougher challenge to predict.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 5 9 24 7 14
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 24 7 17 11 26 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB CHI 0000030020 ***
Matt Ryan went for 321-1-0 last week against the Bears. Winston had a few more days of prep time for this one, and the Bucs have a wealth of weaponry.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB CHI 6012100000 **
Here's Game 2 of Doug Martin's four-game break, and Rodgers should get the bulk of the action. Charles Sims may be a factor in the passing game, though. The Bears lost Jerrell Freeman in Week 1. Outside of a Martin TD in Week 10 last year, Chicago owned Tampa's RBs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, TB CHI 003701000 **
Jackson's Tampa debut draws a moderate matchup against a Bears defense that did a pretty good job of containing Atlanta's offense in Week 1. He's a better choice in non-PPR given the chance of a big play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB CHI 006800000 ***
Tampa's star receiver may have a tough go of it in this one. The Bears held Julio Jones down last weekend. The plus side is that Evans had extra prep time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB CHI 004400000 ***
Humphries checks in as a fringe lineup gamble in deep formats. The Bears will be focused stopping Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, so there's hope for a surprise performance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB CHI 005601000 **
While it happened on just two plays, Chicago was smacked upside its head by Atlanta TE Austin Hooper in Week 1. Brate is the starter here and has reasonable upside with a fairly safe floor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE O.J. Howard, TB CHI 002200000 ***
Howard has a bright outlook that we will see on display in ... you guessed it, the future. Rookie TEs rarely make noise in fantasy, especially in their first start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, TB CHI 1133 ***
Folk's offense should provide ample chances against a Chicago defense ready to be beaten up by a Buccaneers squad with extra prep time.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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