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David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 34 Line: (IND by 5.5)

Players Updated: Donald Brown

Players to Watch: Kenny Britt, Reggie Wayne

This is a replay of week eight when the Colts won 19-13 in Tennessee. The Titans are only 2-4 on the road and the Colts are 3-3 at home.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 20 240,1
RB Shonn Greene 80
WR Nate Washington 3-40
WR Kendall Wright 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have lost four of their last five games and unless it is a trap setup - the Titans run is probably over for the year. A final home game with the Jaguars is the best bet for a win but this season is already a lost cause and the offense will undergo an overhaul in the offseason. So far the only progress that has been made is the return of Chris Johnson to effective rushing and consistently under-utilizing Kendall Wright so they can force more passes to a still less than 100% Kenny Britt. Actually that is not really progress.

Back in week eight, Matt Hasselbeck passed for 236 yards and one score on the Colts. Jake Locker mans the helm now and has been inclined to single touchdown games plus this is on the road. The Colts at home have been better against the pass in recent weeks and already know the Titans offense well.

Chris Johnson comes of a 51 yard effort against the Texans who cared a lot more last week then they did in week four when Johnson ran for 141 yards at the end of the game against a prevent defense. In week eight, Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 21 runs when the Colts visited. Aside from the most recent matchup with the Texans, Johnson turned in over 100 total yards for six straight games and the Colts are only average against the run on a good day.

Jared Cook turned in 45 yards on three catches in the last meeting with the Colts and that's been right around his weekly mark most of the season. He's only scored once in the last seven games.

HC Mike Munchak keeps saying that they need to get Kenny Britt the ball more every week even though Britt only caught two of his eight targets last week and still has not topped 67 yards in any of his ten games. Kendall Wright has been more productive and scored four times to the three by Britt. Nate Washington remains the silent flanker but comes off a surprising 96 yard effort last week. Back in week eight, Britt caught three passes for 34 yards while Kendall Wright scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards and Washington ended with 69 yards on five receptions. So yeah, Britt needs even more work so he can hope to catch up to the other two.

Of note this week - RT David Stewart is out for the season with a fractured right leg.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN IND 0000020011 ***
Whitehurst saw plenty of action in the earlier game with Indy, throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown. That's actually a pretty typical game for him; no reason to set your expectations differently.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN IND 5011100000 **
Sankey scored in the earlier meeting with Indy, and at this juncture there's really no reason to give anyone else carries; the Titans need to find out what their second-round pick is capable of going forward. With greater volume comes greater responsibility--like, he'll need to turn 14 carries into more than 44 yards, like he did against Jacksonville last week, if he wants to become the feature back in Tennessee.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN IND 004500000 ***
Washington had his moment in the sun with 6-102 against a bad Jets' secondary; now he's just taking up roster space.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN IND 004500000 ***
Wright is playing through a hand injury; despite that he led all Titans receivers with 4-73 last week against Jacksonville and is the best bet to post something similar against an Indy team he took for 5-55 (also team-leading) in the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN IND 005601000 ***
Walker scored against Indy in the earlier meeting--hardly surprising, seeing as the Colts have given up 10 TE TDs on the year. They've also allowed six games of 80 yards or more, including Walker's 84 earlier in the year. Given how heavily targeted Walker is, and how bad the rest of Tennessee's receiving corps is, a similar stat line feels like a starting point for Walker this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 1122 ***
The Colts have allowed one multiple-field goal outing in the past 10 games. No reason to think the Titans suddenly find one between the couch cushions this week.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,3
RB Vick Ballard 60,1 3-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 100,1 2-20
RB Trent Richardson 110,1 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50,1
WR Hakeem Nicks 5-70
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
TE Coby Fleener 3-30,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with results. Andrew Luck was mostly bad in Detroit last week but managed to put it all together at the end and throw the game winning touchdown on fourth down and the final play of the game. He's cementing a Rookie of the Year bid that only Robert Griffin III should challenge. If they consider winning games and the passing part of being a quarterback, Luck has it already locked up.

Luck now extends his NFL rookie record with six efforts over 300 yards. His four scores last week was a personal best and double what he had done up until that point. He's on pace for nearly 4800 yards but playing the Texans twice in the final three weeks may impact that. Luck threw for 297 yards and one touchdown in Tennessee.

In the first meeting with the Titans, Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard gained 55 yards on 12 runs and scored on a 16-yard catch. Brown injured his ankle and is no lock to play this week. Ballard scored just last week in Detroit for his first rushing score of his career. Brown has not scored since the season opener.

The Colts lost RT Winston Justice and LG Joe Reitz both to a concussion last week which may impact the blocking this week as well.

Coby Fleener recorded his first NFL touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game and he was only able to catch two passes for 24 yards in the previous Titans matchup. Dwayne Allen managed four receptions for 56 yards in that game.

Of some concern is that Reggie Wayne only scored once in the last eight games but he just missed hanging on to a score in Detroit and he;s still a lock for plenty of catches every time. Wayne turned in seven receptions for 91 yards in Tennessee to lead all receivers. Donnie Avery was the hero last week but only accounted for 42 yards and four catches in week eight.

This replay game should see better success by the receivers but may not be much better rushing if Brown is out and the offensive line remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @TEN 0000023010 *
Luck blew up the Titans to the tune of 370 and 4 when they met back in Week 3. He's been somewhat off that pace of late, with three straight under 200 yards, but as long as the Colts don't get cute and sit him down for Matt Hasselbeck he's as dangerous a fantasy quarterback as there is.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dan Herron, IND @TEN 6013200000 **
Plenty of opportunity here against a defense that's allowed at least one RB score in nine straight games and 12 of the last 13. The Colts had Ahmad Bradshaw (9-65, 2-18-1 and Trent Richardson (14-57, 3-23) do the damage last week; sans Bradshaw, Herron should see plenty of opportunities with this favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @TEN 5002100000 ***
Richardson has been usurped as the Colts' primary ball-carrier, but that doesn't mean he can't hang out--and maybe fall into some fantasy value. Prior to last week Richardson had been splitting carries with Dan Herron, then in last week's blowout loss to the Cowboys things started getting weird. In a favorable matchup you could wring Richardson's last remaining drops of fantasy value from him, but the yield isn't likely to be very big.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @TEN 008800000 **
With TY Hilton out Nicks was Eli Manning's go to guy last week. He's playing for a contract, but what Nicks really needs this week is for Hilton to miss another game and leave Nicks in charge of the receiver rotation. Otherwise he's a risky bet for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND @TEN 004300000 ***
Wayne remains firmly in the twilight of his stellar career; there's not much fantasy value here, either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @TEN 002300000 *
Hilton didn't play last week, and his status for this week's game has yet to be determined. However, Indy's in the playoffs so even if TY is ready expect reduced snaps as the Colts attempt to keep him fresh for a run at the Lombardi.
Update: Hilton is listed as questionable, and with nothing to play for it would be surprising if the Colts gave him more than a few "stay warm" snaps this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND @TEN 005601000 **
Like his running mate, Dwayne Allen, Fleener also scored in the earlier meeting with Tennessee. That's a formidable one-two punch for Andrew Luck to lean on, and there's no reason to think he won't do just that this week.
Update: Indy's TE punch will be limited to just a "one" with Allen ruled out due to a knee injury, but the last time Fleener flew solo he was a fantasy stud so this might just work out in Coby's favor.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @TEN 2222 ***
You can't rest the kicker, so even if the rest of Indy's JV is on the field they should still provide ample opportunity for Vinatieri to swing the leg--maybe even to the tune of the 11 points he scored against the Titans earlier this season.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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