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David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 34 Line: (IND by 5.5)

Players Updated: Donald Brown

Players to Watch: Kenny Britt, Reggie Wayne

This is a replay of week eight when the Colts won 19-13 in Tennessee. The Titans are only 2-4 on the road and the Colts are 3-3 at home.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 220,1
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 3-20
WR Eric Decker 5-70,1
WR Harry Douglas 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have lost four of their last five games and unless it is a trap setup - the Titans run is probably over for the year. A final home game with the Jaguars is the best bet for a win but this season is already a lost cause and the offense will undergo an overhaul in the offseason. So far the only progress that has been made is the return of Chris Johnson to effective rushing and consistently under-utilizing Kendall Wright so they can force more passes to a still less than 100% Kenny Britt. Actually that is not really progress.

Back in week eight, Matt Hasselbeck passed for 236 yards and one score on the Colts. Jake Locker mans the helm now and has been inclined to single touchdown games plus this is on the road. The Colts at home have been better against the pass in recent weeks and already know the Titans offense well.

Chris Johnson comes of a 51 yard effort against the Texans who cared a lot more last week then they did in week four when Johnson ran for 141 yards at the end of the game against a prevent defense. In week eight, Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 21 runs when the Colts visited. Aside from the most recent matchup with the Texans, Johnson turned in over 100 total yards for six straight games and the Colts are only average against the run on a good day.

Jared Cook turned in 45 yards on three catches in the last meeting with the Colts and that's been right around his weekly mark most of the season. He's only scored once in the last seven games.

HC Mike Munchak keeps saying that they need to get Kenny Britt the ball more every week even though Britt only caught two of his eight targets last week and still has not topped 67 yards in any of his ten games. Kendall Wright has been more productive and scored four times to the three by Britt. Nate Washington remains the silent flanker but comes off a surprising 96 yard effort last week. Back in week eight, Britt caught three passes for 34 yards while Kendall Wright scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards and Washington ended with 69 yards on five receptions. So yeah, Britt needs even more work so he can hope to catch up to the other two.

Of note this week - RT David Stewart is out for the season with a fractured right leg.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Cassel, TEN IND 0000019020 ***
Despite the marvelous matchup, Cassel isn't a fantasy option to consider for this Monday night game. There is a chance Marcus Mariota returns, and Cassel has only game with more than 16 fantasy points in his last 13 outings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN IND 00000000 *
It remains unclear if Mariota will play, and having it be a Monday game doesn't help fantasy owners. He posted 21 fantasy points in the home meeting with Indy last year, and was slightly better (25.4) on the road. Just the Pats have been a friendlier matchup for quarterbacks through five weeks of 2017.

Update: He was limited Friday and may come down to being a game-time call Monday night.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN IND 5014300000 ***
The Colts have been susceptible to allowing RB touchdowns thus far, rating as the sixth easiest on the ground and third vs. combined offensive scores. Yardage-wise, this is the 17th-best matchup to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN IND 201000000 **
Indy has surrendered RB rushing TDs with ease, being the sixth-worst team at stopping them. Eleven teams have permitted fewer yards on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN IND 004601000 ***
The first contest in 2016 ended with a paltry 7.7 PPR points for Matthews, but he exacted some revenge in Week 11, going for a buck-22 on nine balls. Indy is a top-10 opponent in fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN IND 004300000 ***
Despite the good matchup, Decker would be a hard sell in any fantasy format for any reason more than a hunch. Indy has yielded the fourth-highest weekly average of yardage to receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN IND 002201000 *
Giving up averages of 4.8 catches, 66.2 yards and a score every eight grabs makes Indy the seventh-easiest matchup to exploit in Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN IND 004500000 ***
The Colts have been gracious to tight ends. In fact, only six teams have been nicer. Walker has more fantasy appeal if Marcus Mariota returns to the lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 1144 ***
All 17 extra points have split the pipes, and the same can be said for 10 of the 12 three-pointers against the Colts thus far.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,3
RB Frank Gore 100,1 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with results. Andrew Luck was mostly bad in Detroit last week but managed to put it all together at the end and throw the game winning touchdown on fourth down and the final play of the game. He's cementing a Rookie of the Year bid that only Robert Griffin III should challenge. If they consider winning games and the passing part of being a quarterback, Luck has it already locked up.

Luck now extends his NFL rookie record with six efforts over 300 yards. His four scores last week was a personal best and double what he had done up until that point. He's on pace for nearly 4800 yards but playing the Texans twice in the final three weeks may impact that. Luck threw for 297 yards and one touchdown in Tennessee.

In the first meeting with the Titans, Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard gained 55 yards on 12 runs and scored on a 16-yard catch. Brown injured his ankle and is no lock to play this week. Ballard scored just last week in Detroit for his first rushing score of his career. Brown has not scored since the season opener.

The Colts lost RT Winston Justice and LG Joe Reitz both to a concussion last week which may impact the blocking this week as well.

Coby Fleener recorded his first NFL touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game and he was only able to catch two passes for 24 yards in the previous Titans matchup. Dwayne Allen managed four receptions for 56 yards in that game.

Of some concern is that Reggie Wayne only scored once in the last eight games but he just missed hanging on to a score in Detroit and he;s still a lock for plenty of catches every time. Wayne turned in seven receptions for 91 yards in Tennessee to lead all receivers. Donnie Avery was the hero last week but only accounted for 42 yards and four catches in week eight.

This replay game should see better success by the receivers but may not be much better rushing if Brown is out and the offensive line remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND @TEN 20000022011 ***
Tennessee provides the fourth-best fantasy matchup of the week, making Brissett a reasonable fill-in candidate or streaming play. No team has conceded TD passes at a faster clip, and one of the 19 attempts on the ground went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND @TEN 4004300000 ***
Gore doesn't have a quality matchup and is losing touches to rookie Marlon Mack. Tennessee has given up only two RB rushing scores in five games, but the position has notched two aerial TDs in its bedpost. Last year, Gore registered PPR scores of 19.3 and 16.1, respectively, in his two meetings with the Titans.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND @TEN 5001100000 ***
Mack looked quite healthy last week and was explosive. The Titans have given up the eighth-fewest points per touch to RBs this year, however. This is a negative PPR matchup and a neutral one in standard scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @TEN 0071101000 ***
Jacoby Brissett's big arm has helped Hilton stay on pace, but it has been a bumpy ride from week to week. Tennessee provides fantasy's third best matchup in reception-rewarding scoring and fourth-best in standard. Hilton had some fun at the Titans' expense in 2016, going for 7-133-1 in Week 7 at Tennessee and 5-97-1 a month later.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @TEN 003400000 ***
He played once once vs. Tennessee year (in Indy) and scored once on his four catches. The loss of Andrew Luck has decimated Moncrief's fantasy worth. The matchup is welcoming for brave owners or those in DFS formats. Tennessee rates as the third-worst team in PPR and fourth-easiest to beat up in standard scoring.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND @TEN 003200000 ***
Doyle missed last week, so monitor his status to be safe. All told, he isn't worthy of a fantasy start in most situations anyway. The Titans have been abused by wideouts but haven't given up much to tight ends.

Update: Doyle was a full-go Friday and is likely to play Monday night.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @TEN 3311 ***
All nine field goal tries and 13 of 15 XPAs have connected against the Titans in 2017. This averages out to 8.0 fantasy points against and is the 12th-best matchup.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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