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David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 34 Line: (IND by 5.5)

Players Updated: Donald Brown

Players to Watch: Kenny Britt, Reggie Wayne

This is a replay of week eight when the Colts won 19-13 in Tennessee. The Titans are only 2-4 on the road and the Colts are 3-3 at home.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have lost four of their last five games and unless it is a trap setup - the Titans run is probably over for the year. A final home game with the Jaguars is the best bet for a win but this season is already a lost cause and the offense will undergo an overhaul in the offseason. So far the only progress that has been made is the return of Chris Johnson to effective rushing and consistently under-utilizing Kendall Wright so they can force more passes to a still less than 100% Kenny Britt. Actually that is not really progress.

Back in week eight, Matt Hasselbeck passed for 236 yards and one score on the Colts. Jake Locker mans the helm now and has been inclined to single touchdown games plus this is on the road. The Colts at home have been better against the pass in recent weeks and already know the Titans offense well.

Chris Johnson comes of a 51 yard effort against the Texans who cared a lot more last week then they did in week four when Johnson ran for 141 yards at the end of the game against a prevent defense. In week eight, Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 21 runs when the Colts visited. Aside from the most recent matchup with the Texans, Johnson turned in over 100 total yards for six straight games and the Colts are only average against the run on a good day.

Jared Cook turned in 45 yards on three catches in the last meeting with the Colts and that's been right around his weekly mark most of the season. He's only scored once in the last seven games.

HC Mike Munchak keeps saying that they need to get Kenny Britt the ball more every week even though Britt only caught two of his eight targets last week and still has not topped 67 yards in any of his ten games. Kendall Wright has been more productive and scored four times to the three by Britt. Nate Washington remains the silent flanker but comes off a surprising 96 yard effort last week. Back in week eight, Britt caught three passes for 34 yards while Kendall Wright scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards and Washington ended with 69 yards on five receptions. So yeah, Britt needs even more work so he can hope to catch up to the other two.

Of note this week - RT David Stewart is out for the season with a fractured right leg.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN BAL 30000023021 ***
Baltimore has been the second-stoutest defense against the position and has permitted only six touchdown passes in five games. Mariota is a huge risk in any format and is best left in reserve.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dion Lewis, TEN BAL 2006401000 **
There is not much incentive to play Lewis, and the projection is optimistic. Baltimore has not allowed a receiving TD on the 18 catches granted, and this is the worst matchup for aerial yardage by the position. Life isn't much rosier on the ground, either.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN BAL 500000000 ***
A terrible matchup for a running back stuck in neutral is a recipe for fantasy failure.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN BAL 002301000 **
Share is merely a shot in the dark for fantasy purposes, and it would take an amazingly dire situation before one should feel compelled to start him. Look for safer and smarter paths to points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN BAL 004600000 ***
Taylor has been targeted at least five times in the last three games, with only Week 4's 7-77-0 line topping seven PPR points. The Ravens provide a midrange matchup and have allowed six touchdowns in the last five games to the position. Consider him at low-tier coin flip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Davis, TEN BAL 004500000 ***
The Ravens offer a negative-leaning matchup that ranks near the middle of the league in receptions per game and fantasy points allowed, but this is the sixth-worst matchup for creating yardage. Wideouts have scored once every 10.5 catches, offering a little upside for bail-out points.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN BAL 2222 ***
No writeup available

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,3
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50,1
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with results. Andrew Luck was mostly bad in Detroit last week but managed to put it all together at the end and throw the game winning touchdown on fourth down and the final play of the game. He's cementing a Rookie of the Year bid that only Robert Griffin III should challenge. If they consider winning games and the passing part of being a quarterback, Luck has it already locked up.

Luck now extends his NFL rookie record with six efforts over 300 yards. His four scores last week was a personal best and double what he had done up until that point. He's on pace for nearly 4800 yards but playing the Texans twice in the final three weeks may impact that. Luck threw for 297 yards and one touchdown in Tennessee.

In the first meeting with the Titans, Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard gained 55 yards on 12 runs and scored on a 16-yard catch. Brown injured his ankle and is no lock to play this week. Ballard scored just last week in Detroit for his first rushing score of his career. Brown has not scored since the season opener.

The Colts lost RT Winston Justice and LG Joe Reitz both to a concussion last week which may impact the blocking this week as well.

Coby Fleener recorded his first NFL touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game and he was only able to catch two passes for 24 yards in the previous Titans matchup. Dwayne Allen managed four receptions for 56 yards in that game.

Of some concern is that Reggie Wayne only scored once in the last eight games but he just missed hanging on to a score in Detroit and he;s still a lock for plenty of catches every time. Wayne turned in seven receptions for 91 yards in Tennessee to lead all receivers. Donnie Avery was the hero last week but only accounted for 42 yards and four catches in week eight.

This replay game should see better success by the receivers but may not be much better rushing if Brown is out and the offensive line remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @NYJ 0000028021 ***
Quarterbacks have thrown seven touchdowns against as many interceptions vs. the Jets in 2018. The 290.6 yards allowed a game ranks ninth most, and a score every 18.7 completions, or the fifth-lowest frequency. Luck has been magical without much at his disposal. Given his success, consider him a low-tier road starter despite the poor matchup rating. He is once again without T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Nyheim Hines, IND @NYJ 2007500000 ***
Hines has an interesting matchup. New York has given up 6.8 catches for 52 yards a game through the air, yet only one of the 34 grabs has scored. Running backs have averaged 80.8 rushing yards, scoring four times in the last five contests. He isn't much of a true running back, despite his game-breaking speed, but the rookie is capable of contributing in PPR with all of Indy's injured pass-catchers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND @NYJ 500000000 *
Mack is close to returning after a full practice Wednesday. Yet, he is hardly worth thinking about in fantasy. Return later for a final estimation of his availability, but practicing on a Wednesday is a great sign. The matchup is just mediocre, and his chance of reinjure has to be considered elevated.

Update: Mack practiced in full all week and is not on the injury report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chester Rogers, IND @NYJ 008901000 ***
Rogers has 11 targets and eight receptions in each of the last two games. He has not found the end zone in 2018, but as long as T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle are out, Rogers is a worthwhile PPR flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ryan Grant, IND @NYJ 005700000 ***
Grant has at least seven targets in three of five games and each of the last two. The former Redskin has managed to find the end zone once and has produced double digits in PPR in all but one week. This is the third-best matchup for receptions and No. 4 in yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Eric Ebron, IND @NYJ 006501000 ***
Ebron looks like a brand-new man after leaving Detroit. He has migrated into the must-start column as long as Jack Doyle remains out, and the former Lion is a sound flex play even if Doyle is back. The Jets have yielded only one touchdown on the 15 catches faced. This is the worst matchup for receptions, yardage and PPR points per contest so far. He did not practice (shin) Wednesday, so check back for an update.

Update: He is listed as questionable with shin, quad, ankle and knee ailments. The veteran is a game-time call in Week 6.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @NYJ 2222 ***
No writeup available

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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