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David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 34 Line: (IND by 5.5)

Players Updated: Donald Brown

Players to Watch: Kenny Britt, Reggie Wayne

This is a replay of week eight when the Colts won 19-13 in Tennessee. The Titans are only 2-4 on the road and the Colts are 3-3 at home.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 3-20
WR Harry Douglas 2-20
WR Andre Johnson 6-100,1
WR Kendall Wright 2-20
TE Anthony Fasano 1-10
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have lost four of their last five games and unless it is a trap setup - the Titans run is probably over for the year. A final home game with the Jaguars is the best bet for a win but this season is already a lost cause and the offense will undergo an overhaul in the offseason. So far the only progress that has been made is the return of Chris Johnson to effective rushing and consistently under-utilizing Kendall Wright so they can force more passes to a still less than 100% Kenny Britt. Actually that is not really progress.

Back in week eight, Matt Hasselbeck passed for 236 yards and one score on the Colts. Jake Locker mans the helm now and has been inclined to single touchdown games plus this is on the road. The Colts at home have been better against the pass in recent weeks and already know the Titans offense well.

Chris Johnson comes of a 51 yard effort against the Texans who cared a lot more last week then they did in week four when Johnson ran for 141 yards at the end of the game against a prevent defense. In week eight, Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 21 runs when the Colts visited. Aside from the most recent matchup with the Texans, Johnson turned in over 100 total yards for six straight games and the Colts are only average against the run on a good day.

Jared Cook turned in 45 yards on three catches in the last meeting with the Colts and that's been right around his weekly mark most of the season. He's only scored once in the last seven games.

HC Mike Munchak keeps saying that they need to get Kenny Britt the ball more every week even though Britt only caught two of his eight targets last week and still has not topped 67 yards in any of his ten games. Kendall Wright has been more productive and scored four times to the three by Britt. Nate Washington remains the silent flanker but comes off a surprising 96 yard effort last week. Back in week eight, Britt caught three passes for 34 yards while Kendall Wright scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards and Washington ended with 69 yards on five receptions. So yeah, Britt needs even more work so he can hope to catch up to the other two.

Of note this week - RT David Stewart is out for the season with a fractured right leg.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN OAK 0000031021 ***
There isn't much Oakland's defense is doing well at this point, including stopping quarterbacks. Mariota is a solid choice to top 300 yards and find the end zone multiple times. Use him as a cost-saver in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN OAK 7016500000 ***
Murray is a fine fantasy play this week. The Raiders have given up two total touchdowns (rush, receive) and 140 offensive yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN OAK 0071001000 ***
The best receiving matchup for receivers should lead to a career day for the rookie. Oakland has surrendered 35 receptions for 564 yards and five TDs to wideouts in two games -- nearly 23 more PPR points than the next closest defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, TEN OAK 003301000 **
Johnson doesn't belong on fantasy rosters. Or in DFS lineups, for that matter, even against a miserable pass defense. TE Delanie Walker (hamstring) is unlikely to go, so there's that, if you're willing to throw caution to the wind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN OAK 004500000 ***
The matchup is ripe for the pickin', so take a shot in DFS. Matthews could slide into flex spots in traditional formats against the easiest WR fantasy defense to exploit in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN OAK 003400000 *
Cleveland is the only team that has given up more yards to tight ends than Oakland. The Raiders rank 26th at stopping the position. Walker is an offensive focal point and must be started in traditional games.

Update: Ruh-roh ... Walker is questionable and did not practice Friday. Not good. Check the inactives, but the late-blooming vet has a hammy injury and should be avoided for safety purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN OAK 1133 ***
The Titans shouldn't have problems scoring touchdowns against Oakland, and TDs don't move the fantasy kicker needle.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,3
RB Frank Gore 100,1 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with results. Andrew Luck was mostly bad in Detroit last week but managed to put it all together at the end and throw the game winning touchdown on fourth down and the final play of the game. He's cementing a Rookie of the Year bid that only Robert Griffin III should challenge. If they consider winning games and the passing part of being a quarterback, Luck has it already locked up.

Luck now extends his NFL rookie record with six efforts over 300 yards. His four scores last week was a personal best and double what he had done up until that point. He's on pace for nearly 4800 yards but playing the Texans twice in the final three weeks may impact that. Luck threw for 297 yards and one touchdown in Tennessee.

In the first meeting with the Titans, Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard gained 55 yards on 12 runs and scored on a 16-yard catch. Brown injured his ankle and is no lock to play this week. Ballard scored just last week in Detroit for his first rushing score of his career. Brown has not scored since the season opener.

The Colts lost RT Winston Justice and LG Joe Reitz both to a concussion last week which may impact the blocking this week as well.

Coby Fleener recorded his first NFL touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game and he was only able to catch two passes for 24 yards in the previous Titans matchup. Dwayne Allen managed four receptions for 56 yards in that game.

Of some concern is that Reggie Wayne only scored once in the last eight games but he just missed hanging on to a score in Detroit and he;s still a lock for plenty of catches every time. Wayne turned in seven receptions for 91 yards in Tennessee to lead all receivers. Donnie Avery was the hero last week but only accounted for 42 yards and four catches in week eight.

This replay game should see better success by the receivers but may not be much better rushing if Brown is out and the offensive line remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND SD 20000031030 ***
San Diego has been very strong against the position, and Luck is now without Donte Moncrief. His upside remains high, yet his floor is now much lower than before. The Bolts have given up a ton of yardage but only four TDs in two games, intercepting three passes along the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND SD 6005200000 ***
San Diego gave up a lot of garbage-time points in Week 2, and among that comeback attempt was a receiving touchdown from the RB position. Gore is as good of a play as a 300-year-old running back ever will be as the offense likely tries to balance a little after losing Donte Moncrief.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Turbin, IND SD 101000000 **
Turbin doesn't belong on rosters or in lineups at this time, unless you play in a cavernous league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND SD 002601000 ***
Donte Moncrief's injury ascends Dorsett in the pecking order. The former first-rounder has speed to burn and makes for a fine play in standard-scoring formats. He isn't likely to see enough balls to be a strong play in PPR. San Diego ranks 15th against WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND SD 005800000 ***
Hilton isn't 100 percent recovered yet but was in good enough shape to play in Week 2. He'll see more looks with Donte Moncrief out, but that might not matter against Jason Verrett and plenty of shades. San Diego is a neutral matchup for fantasy receivers through two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND SD 004601000 ***
Get Allen into those lineups, including DFS contests. He's a TE1 against San Diego -- the third best matchup for TEs -- with Donte Moncrief out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND SD 004501000 ***
Doyle is a good DFS buy this week. San Diego has given up the third most points to TEs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND SD 2244 ***
Indy's offense should give the old guy plenty of chances to swing the old leg via extra points and a few field goal chances.

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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