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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

Prediction: TEN 20, IND 34 Line: (IND by 5.5)

Players Updated: Donald Brown

Players to Watch: Kenny Britt, Reggie Wayne

This is a replay of week eight when the Colts won 19-13 in Tennessee. The Titans are only 2-4 on the road and the Colts are 3-3 at home.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND -----
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Harry Douglas 2-20
WR Kendall Wright 2-20
TE Anthony Fasano 1-10
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have lost four of their last five games and unless it is a trap setup - the Titans run is probably over for the year. A final home game with the Jaguars is the best bet for a win but this season is already a lost cause and the offense will undergo an overhaul in the offseason. So far the only progress that has been made is the return of Chris Johnson to effective rushing and consistently under-utilizing Kendall Wright so they can force more passes to a still less than 100% Kenny Britt. Actually that is not really progress.

Back in week eight, Matt Hasselbeck passed for 236 yards and one score on the Colts. Jake Locker mans the helm now and has been inclined to single touchdown games plus this is on the road. The Colts at home have been better against the pass in recent weeks and already know the Titans offense well.

Chris Johnson comes of a 51 yard effort against the Texans who cared a lot more last week then they did in week four when Johnson ran for 141 yards at the end of the game against a prevent defense. In week eight, Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 21 runs when the Colts visited. Aside from the most recent matchup with the Texans, Johnson turned in over 100 total yards for six straight games and the Colts are only average against the run on a good day.

Jared Cook turned in 45 yards on three catches in the last meeting with the Colts and that's been right around his weekly mark most of the season. He's only scored once in the last seven games.

HC Mike Munchak keeps saying that they need to get Kenny Britt the ball more every week even though Britt only caught two of his eight targets last week and still has not topped 67 yards in any of his ten games. Kendall Wright has been more productive and scored four times to the three by Britt. Nate Washington remains the silent flanker but comes off a surprising 96 yard effort last week. Back in week eight, Britt caught three passes for 34 yards while Kendall Wright scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards and Washington ended with 69 yards on five receptions. So yeah, Britt needs even more work so he can hope to catch up to the other two.

Of note this week - RT David Stewart is out for the season with a fractured right leg.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 22 26 19 9 16 18
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 14 22 27 2 11 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN @IND 0000025012 ***
Following last week's shutout of Ryan Tannehill the Colts have gone back-to-back games of holding QBs without multiple TDs for the first time this season. So it's a favorable matchup for Mettenberger; he's just not well-equipped to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN @IND 3002200000 ***
Mike Mularkey says Sankey will get more playing time this week--this after Sankey took over the Titans ground game last week following a pair of Antonio Andrews turnovers. It's a favorable matchup, but it'll take stones the size of Pluto to trot out Sankey in a Week 17 championship game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Antonio Andrews, TEN @IND 4001100000 *
Indy's run defense rallied last week, holding Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi to a shade over two yards per carry--though Miller did score. Andrews scored on the Colts earlier this year, but he may not get the 13 touches he received in that game. So there's a smidgen of fantasy upside here--which, in Week 17, may be enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN @IND 004700000 ***
DGB went from 113 against the Pats to a goose egg against Houston, so reliability may not be his strong suit. He scored over Vontae Davis in the earlier matchup this year, and the Colts have allowed six 90-plus yard WRs in the past month so there's undeniable upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @IND 008901000 ***
The Colts have been pretty good against tight ends this season, but they surrendered 7-68 to Walker (and 55 yards to other Titans TEs) in the earlier meeting. And Walker has seen double-digit targets in three of the last four games, scoring three TDs and compiling 26-286 in that span. He's Tennessee's go-to pass catcher, and nothing in the Titans' current state of wideouts suggests a deviation from that plan.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @IND 1122 ***
Has not topped ten points
Nine in earlier meeting
No fantasy help

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN -----
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU -----
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 250,2
QB Andrew Luck 10 300,3
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 100,1 2-20
RB Frank Gore 100,1 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 4-50,1
TE Dwayne Allen 3-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with results. Andrew Luck was mostly bad in Detroit last week but managed to put it all together at the end and throw the game winning touchdown on fourth down and the final play of the game. He's cementing a Rookie of the Year bid that only Robert Griffin III should challenge. If they consider winning games and the passing part of being a quarterback, Luck has it already locked up.

Luck now extends his NFL rookie record with six efforts over 300 yards. His four scores last week was a personal best and double what he had done up until that point. He's on pace for nearly 4800 yards but playing the Texans twice in the final three weeks may impact that. Luck threw for 297 yards and one touchdown in Tennessee.

In the first meeting with the Titans, Donald Brown rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries while Vick Ballard gained 55 yards on 12 runs and scored on a 16-yard catch. Brown injured his ankle and is no lock to play this week. Ballard scored just last week in Detroit for his first rushing score of his career. Brown has not scored since the season opener.

The Colts lost RT Winston Justice and LG Joe Reitz both to a concussion last week which may impact the blocking this week as well.

Coby Fleener recorded his first NFL touchdown last week but it was on his only catch in the game and he was only able to catch two passes for 24 yards in the previous Titans matchup. Dwayne Allen managed four receptions for 56 yards in that game.

Of some concern is that Reggie Wayne only scored once in the last eight games but he just missed hanging on to a score in Detroit and he;s still a lock for plenty of catches every time. Wayne turned in seven receptions for 91 yards in Tennessee to lead all receivers. Donnie Avery was the hero last week but only accounted for 42 yards and four catches in week eight.

This replay game should see better success by the receivers but may not be much better rushing if Brown is out and the offensive line remains injured.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 28 6 22 17 26
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 26 29 19 29 29 21

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh Freeman, IND TEN 0000014002 *
Indy's starting quarterback in a must-win game will most likely be a guy who's been with the team less than a week. That didn't work so well for Freeman the last time he tried it--flaming out famously as a Viking on Monday Night Football--and there's no reason to think it will go any better here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND TEN 10903200000 *
With little in the way of QB options look for the Colts to pin their offensive hopes on Gore. He responded with 15-85-2 in a similar situation last week and had 14-86-2 in Tennessee earlier this season, so he's both a volume and matchup bet this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TEN 003300000 *
The Titans have allowed a 100-yard receiver in five of the last six games, but with limited options at quarterback--Indy will start either a guy who's never taken a regular season snap or one of two guys they signed off the street earlier this week--the passing game can't be banked on for productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND TEN 002300000 *
It's not so much the matchup as it is the lack of a quarterback in Indy that has us worried about the potential of the passing game. Best look for options that don't have to wear name tags so their quarterback knows who they are.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TEN 2200 ***
TEN gives up field goals;
can Indy QB du jour
get him close enough?

WEEK 14
2012
DEN at OAK (THU) *CHI at MIN MIA at SF SD at PIT
*ARI at SEA *DAL at CIN *NO at NYG *STL at BUF
*ATL at CAR *DET at GB NYJ at JAC *TEN at IND
*Updated BAL at WAS KC at CLE PHI at TB HOU at NE (MON)

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