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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: CIN 27, PHI 20 (Line: CIN by 3 )

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

This is the Thursday night game that features the 7-6 Bengals who are probably as close to a wild card as they will be this season and the Eagles fresh off their latest win that is separated from their other recent win only nine games before that. The Bengals are 4-2 in road games and the Eagles probably cannot get that lucky two weeks in a row.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK 34-10
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD 20-13
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL 19-20
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 250,2
WR A.J. Green 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: Like much of the rest of the league, the Bengals were off their game last week and this was painfully obvious when A.J. Green out right dropped several passes including one sure touchdown. This week is a short one with a Thursday night game and then comes the two big games to end the season - at Pittsburgh and then home versus the Ravens. Losing last week should help keep the Bengals focused here and besides, Thursday night games are usually won by the team with the most talent since there is so little time to prepare.

Andy Dalton hasn't thrown for many yards this year and certainly not in the last five games where he has remained at 230 yards or less. Still he has scored at least once in every week since the opener and half his efforts end up with multiple touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been impressive this past month with three straight games over 100 rushing yards and even last week when he was limited to just 12 carries he still gained 89 yards and caught three passes for 13 more versus the Cowboys. He should see even more work than usual this time because Cedric Peerman is nursing a sore ankle and likely won't suit up by Thursday night. With only Brian Leonard to mix in, Green-Ellis should end up with 20+ carries yet again. This is likely his final good game of the season.

Jermaine Gresham was limited in practices last week because of his hamstring but still played and produced a standard four receptions for 43 yards. While Andrew Hawkins accounted for six catches for 44 yards and the only passing score, Marvin Jones is starting to get notice in the flanker spot with three receptions for 45 yards and an end-around that covered 37 yards last week.

This is a must win for the Bengals and A.J. Green has done the unthinkable by going three games without a touchdown. The Eagles are likely still giddy about the win last week and are still without all their key players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 11 25 4 15 14 16
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 27 10 22 15 27 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN PHI 0000025011 ***
Dalton simply doesn't have enough weapons to warrant a fantasy start. Philadelphia has allowed only one 300-yard passer on the season, and this is a neutral matchup if you remove Aaron Rodgers' destruction against them in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN PHI 7013300000 ***
Philadelphia has given up only two touchdowns on the last 102 attempts faced. This is the fifth worst matchup for a running back looking to find the end zone based on data over the last five weeks. Hill will need to defy the odds -- or least get a good shot from short range -- to find paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rex Burkhead, CIN PHI 2002200000 ***
Replacing Gio Bernard, Burkhead managed seven offensive touches last week. There is little reason to trust him in any lineup, especially against fantasy's fourth worst matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyler Boyd, CIN PHI 005601000 ***
The rookie has been thrust into a larger role with A.J. Green on the mend. Philly represents the third best potential for points, which has led to the fourth most on a per-game basis (44.0 for teams in PPR). Wide receivers have scored at the fifth most frequent rate against this defense since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN PHI 004400000 ***
Over the last five weeks, receivers have tallied averages of 13 receptions, 210.2 yards and a score every 8.1 grabs -- all top-12 numbers for the position. LaFell is a decent flex play in Week 13.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Eifert, CIN PHI 005700000 ***
The Eagles have given up the second fewest catches and third fewest yards per game since Week 7, but allowing a TD every eight catches translates to this being the fifth worst at keeping the position out of the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mike Nugent, CIN PHI 2222 ***
The seventh most field goal attempts allowed plus the 13th highest average of XPAs translates to Philly allowing the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Ryan Mathews 90,1 2-10
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-50,1

Pregame Notes: Any time a team ends an eight game losing streak, it is big news at home. Sadly the season ticket holders have not seen a win since late September and are not likely to see one here. Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy are getting better and had a limited practice but with an early Thursday night game they are not expected to play. Next week - maybe. Though Foles will continue to be the starting quarterback.

Nick Foles finally put together an impressive showing when he passed for 381 yards and two scores in Tampa Bay and even added a rushing touchdown as well. He has been much improved since his first rocky start in Washington a month ago and will get a chance to compare next week when they visiting the Eagles for the final home game of the year.

The Bryce Brown Magical Mystery Tour took a major detour last week when instead of rushing for 165+ yards and two scores like the two previous weeks, he was held to only six net yards on 12 runs in Tampa Bay. It does make it harder when they can see you coming. At least this week Brown is back to facing below average rushing defenses. Dion Lewis on takes a couple of carries per game. Brown will take almost all carries for the Eagles and get whatever is there to get each week. Once McCoy returns - assuming he does at all this year - Brown will continue to be involved in the backfield and then the offseason will have to sort this all out with a new coaching staff.

With DeSean Jackson out, Jason Avant is making good use of his extra opportunities and after posting 79 yards on four catches in Dallas, led the team with seven receptions for 133 yards in Tampa Bay. Jeremy Maclin also managed to gained 104 yards and a score in that game after being held in check for three weeks.

Foles is coming around and has already likely bought himself a starting gig next year. These next two home games will be good to sell himself to the hometown crowd.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 17 14 20 22 22 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 7 23 3 22 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @CIN 10000025012 ***
Quarterbacks have overachieved slightly against the Bengals. The matchup rating is the sixth worst, yet Cincy has allowed the 19th most points per game to the position. Passers have averaged 274.5 aerial yards over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @CIN 2006501000 ***
The Bengals rate as the eighth worst matchup based on opportunity but have given up the 11th most fantasy points in PPR. None of the 23 receptions allowed have scored, but backs have averaged 149 offensive yards in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI @CIN 4002300000 ***
Smallwood's role increases if Ryan Mathews cannot go. The Bengals have surrendered a ton of yardage (seventh most per game) but practically nothing else of note to the position over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI @CIN 006801000 ***
Green-Beckham would have a large role if Jordan Matthews doesn't suit up or is limited. The big-bodied receiver should be viewed as a highly risky flex play for brazen gamblers. Cincinnati falls in the soundly neutral matchup window.

Update: Matthews is questionable but is unlikely to dress.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bryce Treggs, PHI @CIN 002300000 ***
Largely untested, Treggs should see more work if Jordan Matthews doesn't play. Avoid him in all fantasy formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @CIN 005500000 ***
Cincinnati has given up the most receptions and third highest yardage figure to tight ends on a per-game rate since Week 7. Ertz is a viable play in PPR formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI @CIN 2211 ***
Powered by surrendering the highest number of field goal attempts per game (2.75), Cincinnati rates as the fourth most generous matchup for kickers in Week 13.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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