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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: CIN 27, PHI 20 (Line: CIN by 3 )

Players to Watch: Nick Foles, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

This is the Thursday night game that features the 7-6 Bengals who are probably as close to a wild card as they will be this season and the Eagles fresh off their latest win that is separated from their other recent win only nine games before that. The Bengals are 4-2 in road games and the Eagles probably cannot get that lucky two weeks in a row.

Cincinnati Bengals
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @BAL 13-44 10 NYG 31-13
2 CLE 34-27 11 @KC 28-6
3 @WAS 38-31 12 OAK 34-10
4 @JAC 27-10 13 @SD 20-13
5 MIA 13-17 14 DAL 19-20
6 @CLE 24-34 15 @PHI -----
7 PIT 17-24 16 @PIT -----
8 BYE ----- 17 BAL -----
9 DEN 23-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 10 250,2
WR A.J. Green 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: Like much of the rest of the league, the Bengals were off their game last week and this was painfully obvious when A.J. Green out right dropped several passes including one sure touchdown. This week is a short one with a Thursday night game and then comes the two big games to end the season - at Pittsburgh and then home versus the Ravens. Losing last week should help keep the Bengals focused here and besides, Thursday night games are usually won by the team with the most talent since there is so little time to prepare.

Andy Dalton hasn't thrown for many yards this year and certainly not in the last five games where he has remained at 230 yards or less. Still he has scored at least once in every week since the opener and half his efforts end up with multiple touchdowns.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been impressive this past month with three straight games over 100 rushing yards and even last week when he was limited to just 12 carries he still gained 89 yards and caught three passes for 13 more versus the Cowboys. He should see even more work than usual this time because Cedric Peerman is nursing a sore ankle and likely won't suit up by Thursday night. With only Brian Leonard to mix in, Green-Ellis should end up with 20+ carries yet again. This is likely his final good game of the season.

Jermaine Gresham was limited in practices last week because of his hamstring but still played and produced a standard four receptions for 43 yards. While Andrew Hawkins accounted for six catches for 44 yards and the only passing score, Marvin Jones is starting to get notice in the flanker spot with three receptions for 45 yards and an end-around that covered 37 yards last week.

This is a must win for the Bengals and A.J. Green has done the unthinkable by going three games without a touchdown. The Eagles are likely still giddy about the win last week and are still without all their key players.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 11 25 4 15 14 16
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 27 10 22 15 27 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andy Dalton, CIN @DEN 10000021010 ***
Denver remains good at limiting yardage through the air, but no team has allowed TD passes with a higher frequency in the past five weeks. One of every 7.6 completions has scored. The likelihood of Dalton finding a great deal of success is rather low, however. He's a high-risk, moderate-reward candidate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joe Mixon, CIN @DEN 4003200000 ***
In the past five weeks, Denver has allowed 111.8 rushing yards (9th), 23.8 aerial yards (31st) and a TD every 20 touches (2nd). A matching four TDs on the ground and through the sky have been scored vs. Denver over its last five. Craziness.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Giovani Bernard, CIN @DEN 1004300000 **
While the Broncos have encountered a few hiccups against running backs in recent weeks, the pass-catching backs have remained out in the cold but not out of the end zone. This is the sixth-hardest matchup for receptions and second-best for yardage. TD-wise, one in five catches has gone for a score, which is easily the worst defense of RBs in this area.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Green, CIN @DEN 005600000 ***
Green has faced Denver each of the past two seasons and has done a decent job in PPR scoring. He had 15.7 points last year and 16.7 in 2015. The Broncos remain strong against wideouts -- ranked 31st in both scoring formats -- but have given up a TD every 10.7 receptions (8th-softest rate). Luckily for Denver, this translates to only three in five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon LaFell, CIN @DEN 004400000 ***
A.J. Green's sidekick stepped up last week, going for 95 yards on six grabs, including a TD. The veteran has just two scores on the year (both in the last four games). Denver remains dominant against receivers in yards and catches, although three of the past 32 have gone for six.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tyler Kroft, CIN @DEN 005401000 ***
Tight ends have averaged 6.2 receptions (3rd most), 100.2 yards (most) and a TD every 7.8 catches (8th). Kroft could enjoy a fine fantasy day in Week 11 against easily the worst defense of this position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Randy Bullock, CIN @DEN 3311 ***
The Broncos have been a fine place to look for fantasy success. The position has averaged 2.2 field goals on 2.4 attempts, also making 3.6 extra points on 3.8 kicks per contest.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN -----
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS -----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 230,1
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-50,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 5-70

Pregame Notes: Any time a team ends an eight game losing streak, it is big news at home. Sadly the season ticket holders have not seen a win since late September and are not likely to see one here. Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy are getting better and had a limited practice but with an early Thursday night game they are not expected to play. Next week - maybe. Though Foles will continue to be the starting quarterback.

Nick Foles finally put together an impressive showing when he passed for 381 yards and two scores in Tampa Bay and even added a rushing touchdown as well. He has been much improved since his first rocky start in Washington a month ago and will get a chance to compare next week when they visiting the Eagles for the final home game of the year.

The Bryce Brown Magical Mystery Tour took a major detour last week when instead of rushing for 165+ yards and two scores like the two previous weeks, he was held to only six net yards on 12 runs in Tampa Bay. It does make it harder when they can see you coming. At least this week Brown is back to facing below average rushing defenses. Dion Lewis on takes a couple of carries per game. Brown will take almost all carries for the Eagles and get whatever is there to get each week. Once McCoy returns - assuming he does at all this year - Brown will continue to be involved in the backfield and then the offseason will have to sort this all out with a new coaching staff.

With DeSean Jackson out, Jason Avant is making good use of his extra opportunities and after posting 79 yards on four catches in Dallas, led the team with seven receptions for 133 yards in Tampa Bay. Jeremy Maclin also managed to gained 104 yards and a score in that game after being held in check for three weeks.

Foles is coming around and has already likely bought himself a starting gig next year. These next two home games will be good to sell himself to the hometown crowd.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 17 14 20 22 22 31
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 7 23 3 22 20 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @DAL 0000024030 ***
Well-rested, Wentz and Co. take on a Dallas defense that is likely to be without its top playmaker. Fantasy-wise, this group has given up only 19.9 points per game, which is the 19th-highest average. Wentz faces a unit allowing a TD every 19 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI @DAL 8011100000 *
This is a rather negative matchup. The Cowboys have given up only 66.8 rushing yards (28th) and a touchdown every 36 rushing attempts (12th), or two scores in the past four games. The 'Boys could give up more production with LB Sean Lee likely out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI @DAL 2001200000 *
Clement was a fantasy darling a few weeks ago but is a risky proposition for Week 11 lineups. Dallas has yielded just two TDs over the past 94 offensive touches (19th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI @DAL 300000000 *
The matchup isn't worthy of tossing Blount into a fantasy lineup without being in a dire situation. With Jay Ajayi gaining extra time via the bye week to study up, expect a lessened role for Blount.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @DAL 004601000 ***
We've seen countless times this year how Agholor's fantasy worth is directly tied to finding the end zone. Dallas has given up only three WR TDs in the past four games, so there is a hint of hope here. This is a slightly optimistic projection, but it's absolutely worth gambling on in fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @DAL 002401000 ***
Receivers have averaged 13 receptions (7th) for 157.3 yards (13th) and a TD every 17.3 grabs (23rd), which shows Dallas has done a sound job of the proverbial bending without breaking. This project really could go either way, but expecting a brilliant day from Jeffery would be asking a bit much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 005701000 ***
Ertz should be healthy after the bye week and ready to resume his dominant season. The Cowboys have given up two tight end scores in the past four games, and this is an overall neutral matchup. In Week 17 last year, he exploded for 13 catches, 139 yards and two TDs vs. a largely resting Dallas team.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @DAL 1144 ***
The matchup is solidly negative based on fantasy points allowed, with one missed field goal and an inaccurate point-after try. The potential for more is definitely real.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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