FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: JAC 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 7 )

Players Updated: Cecil Shorts

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon

Let's be serious - not a lot of fantasy value going to be found in this game. The 2-11 Jaguars are 1-5 on the road and thanks the Titans for it not being ten straight losses. The 5-8 Dolphins and on a two game slide as well but are 3-3 at home. If this game ends up with more than about 35 total points it will be all defensive scores.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 210,1
WR Cecil Shorts
TE Clay Harbor 5-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars nightmare season is concluding and they won't be the favored team again until 2013. Assuming they improve. Chad Henne finally declined to the point where he passed for only 185 yards and no touchdowns while throwing two interceptions against the Jets. That was in part because Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion and Antonio Cromartie locked up on Justin Blackmon.

Henne still is an upgrade from Blaine Gabbert but has declined every game in production while getting worse on turnovers. The one positive here - the Fins always allow at least one passing score to every visitor.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out with no timetable when he will return though speculation is that he will be back right after he signs a new contract and not before. So next year, maybe on another team.

Cecil Shorts may still miss this week as well because his concussion kept him out of all practices and he still had a few tests he needed to pass. In his place the Jags started Kevin Elloit who only caught three of his ten throws for 38 yards and was noted by HC Mike Mularkey for dropping so many passes. Jordan Shipley actually managed five receptions for 55 yards and is starting to become a minor player from the slot.

Montel Owens rushed for a career best 91 yards and one score on 14 carries but much of that came on a 32-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter. Rashad Jennings is still dealing with his concussion and Owens is likely to get another start only this time against the #5 defense against the run.

The only fantasy value here is the potential for moderate passing stats and some yards by Justin Blackmon but losing Shorts leaves the Jags with no one else that the defense worries about. That should limit Blackmon as the only viable passing target.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 24 31 13 26 29 30
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 5 15 17 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 0000024011 ***
Bortles' first taste of the NFL came against Indy earlier this year, when he tossed two TDs in relief of Chad Henne. He's been inconsistent and mostly ineffective since, and it'll take garbage time for him to carve out fantasy value against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @IND 8012100000 ***
Robinson has either scored or topped 100 yards in each of his four games since taking over the regular gig--a job he did not have when these teams met earlier in the season. After watching Jonas Gray gut the Colts for 201 yards and four TDs, you have to think Robinson can at least carve out some fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @IND 006901000 ***
Shorts has had his share of success against Indy, with three TDs in four games--including one in the earlier meeting this year. With Allen Robinson out Shorts should resume his role as the most targeted Jaguar, and in garbage time odds are he can carve out some fantasy value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @IND 006800000 ***
Hurns should see more looks with fellow rookie Allen Robinson out, and he's always a threat for the home run. But Cecil Shorts is the more viable fantasy option in Jacksonville's passing game, and thus far there hasn't usually been enough to feed multiple mouths.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC @IND 002100000 ***
The Colts have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, but Harbor's role in the Jacksonville offense has declined to the point that even with a favorable matchup on the table you'll want to look elsewhere for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @IND 0022 ***
Scobee hasn't hit double-digits yet this year, and the Jags have only managed to crack the 20-point mark twice this season. You have better options at your disposal.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 190
RB LaMichael James 20 2-10
RB Knowshon Moreno 70,1 4-20
RB Daniel Thomas 10,1
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 5-70
WR Mike Wallace 5-90,1

Pregame Notes: The Fins have two final home games that can lift them to a 7-8 record but that week 17 game in New England needs to be one where the Pats have nothing to win and let the Fins take the game and end up at .500. Probably not going to happen. The Dolphins offense has sputtered all year and scored more than one touchdown in just one of the last five games.

Ryan Tannehill heads up the worst passing attack in the league. Granted, the Cardinals are in free fall now but the FIns have held fast to their rookie quarterback in every game. Tannehill still only has eight passing touchdowns and rarely tops 200 yards. On the plus side, he doesn't turn the ball over often.

Reggie Bush comes off one of his most productive games of the year when he ran for 65 yards on 14 carries and added five receptions for 38 yards in San Francisco. More importantly, Lamar Miller only took three runs for one net yard and Daniel Thomas only ran twice for three yards. Instead of a three-headed monster, the Fins elected to go heavy with Bush who was far more productive then the other two. That could mean good things with these next two home games against the ultra-weak rushing defenses of the Jaguars and Bills.

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still have no reliable fantasy value other than moderate yardage by Hartline when facing a weak secondary. They also just signed Armon Binns who was released by the Bengals who could not wait until the offseason to part ways with the same guy who started five games for them this year. There is never enough passing here to merit any fantasy starting considerations outside of a reception points league when Hartline plays a bad secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 30 32 27 24
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 26 29 23 5 31 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @DEN 0000024021 ***
For all the Dolphins' recent success Tannehill remains a fantasy outsider, especially on the road; he's had one passing TD in three of five away from Miami, including his last two. Tough to see him offering up much of note in Denver this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @DEN 5003200000 ***
Miller took it to a pretty good Buffalo run D last week, racking up 86 yards on 15 carries. Looks like his shoulder shouldn't be a concern. The Broncos are tougher to run on at home so keep your expectations in check, but if Miami follows the Rams' blueprint from last week Miller should see more than enough touches to be fantasy relevant.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA @DEN 005600000 ***
Wallace sees the targets, so by and large he's the Dolphins receiver with the most fantasy upside. It's not a particularly good matchup, but Wallace has done enough to at least be flirting with every-week starter status.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @DEN 004600000 ***
Mike Wallace remains the most targeted Dolphin, but Landry is fast becoming the guy the team turns to when plays need to be made. It's not a great matchup, but that playmaking ability keeps Landry on the cusp of fantasy relevancy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA @DEN 00000000 **
The Broncos have allowed four TE TDs in as many games, and with Clay back to his heavily-targeted role in the lineup he's a decent fantasy play this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA @DEN 2222 ***
Sturgis has prospered in the wake of the improving Miami offense, with at least eight points in five straight games. However, eight is the top total for a visiting kicker in Denver this year so there's a ceiling to his upside this week.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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