FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: JAC 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 7 )

Players Updated: Cecil Shorts

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon

Let's be serious - not a lot of fantasy value going to be found in this game. The 2-11 Jaguars are 1-5 on the road and thanks the Titans for it not being ten straight losses. The 5-8 Dolphins and on a two game slide as well but are 3-3 at home. If this game ends up with more than about 35 total points it will be all defensive scores.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 210,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars nightmare season is concluding and they won't be the favored team again until 2013. Assuming they improve. Chad Henne finally declined to the point where he passed for only 185 yards and no touchdowns while throwing two interceptions against the Jets. That was in part because Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion and Antonio Cromartie locked up on Justin Blackmon.

Henne still is an upgrade from Blaine Gabbert but has declined every game in production while getting worse on turnovers. The one positive here - the Fins always allow at least one passing score to every visitor.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out with no timetable when he will return though speculation is that he will be back right after he signs a new contract and not before. So next year, maybe on another team.

Cecil Shorts may still miss this week as well because his concussion kept him out of all practices and he still had a few tests he needed to pass. In his place the Jags started Kevin Elloit who only caught three of his ten throws for 38 yards and was noted by HC Mike Mularkey for dropping so many passes. Jordan Shipley actually managed five receptions for 55 yards and is starting to become a minor player from the slot.

Montel Owens rushed for a career best 91 yards and one score on 14 carries but much of that came on a 32-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter. Rashad Jennings is still dealing with his concussion and Owens is likely to get another start only this time against the #5 defense against the run.

The only fantasy value here is the potential for moderate passing stats and some yards by Justin Blackmon but losing Shorts leaves the Jags with no one else that the defense worries about. That should limit Blackmon as the only viable passing target.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 24 31 13 26 29 30
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 5 15 17 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC MIN 30100019002 ***
Minnesota has given up a TD every 12.5 completions in the last month, but that is where the fun stops for QBs. This is the sixth strongest opponent of the position, and only two teams have conceded more yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB T.J. Yeldon, JAC MIN 3003200000 ***
Yeldon should be be trusted in any format against this stingy opponent. The Vikings have allowed only two rushing touchdowns by RBs in the last five games.

Update: Chris Ivory is a game-time decision, but after not practicing in full at all this week, he's closer to doubtful.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC MIN 003300000 ***
No Harrison Smith could help, but the Vikings have done a fantastic job of limited receivers. The position has averaged bottom-12 numbers in receptions, yards, points per play, and fantasy points scored over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC MIN 004300000 ***
The Vikings remain one of fantasy's toughest defenses against receivers. Since Week 8, this is the eighth worst matchup for fantasy wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Neal Sterling, JAC MIN 004500000 ***
Neal would see more work if Julius Thomas is once again out, but trusting him in a lineup is ill-advised.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC MIN 1111 ***
The Vikings have done a fine job of limiting defensive touchdowns all year, and that hasn't changed in the past five weeks. The kicker position has kicked 12 field goals to only nine extra points in this time. Jacksonville struggles to score points of any kind.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 190
TE Jordan Cameron 2-20

Pregame Notes: The Fins have two final home games that can lift them to a 7-8 record but that week 17 game in New England needs to be one where the Pats have nothing to win and let the Fins take the game and end up at .500. Probably not going to happen. The Dolphins offense has sputtered all year and scored more than one touchdown in just one of the last five games.

Ryan Tannehill heads up the worst passing attack in the league. Granted, the Cardinals are in free fall now but the FIns have held fast to their rookie quarterback in every game. Tannehill still only has eight passing touchdowns and rarely tops 200 yards. On the plus side, he doesn't turn the ball over often.

Reggie Bush comes off one of his most productive games of the year when he ran for 65 yards on 14 carries and added five receptions for 38 yards in San Francisco. More importantly, Lamar Miller only took three runs for one net yard and Daniel Thomas only ran twice for three yards. Instead of a three-headed monster, the Fins elected to go heavy with Bush who was far more productive then the other two. That could mean good things with these next two home games against the ultra-weak rushing defenses of the Jaguars and Bills.

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still have no reliable fantasy value other than moderate yardage by Hartline when facing a weak secondary. They also just signed Armon Binns who was released by the Bengals who could not wait until the offseason to part ways with the same guy who started five games for them this year. There is never enough passing here to merit any fantasy starting considerations outside of a reception points league when Hartline plays a bad secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 30 32 27 24
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 26 29 23 5 31 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA ARI 10000019010 ***
Quarterbacks have averaged only 229.8 yards and 1.25 TD passes per contest against Arizona in the last four games. Tannehill is too inconsistent to play in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA ARI 10021100000 ***
Every 20.3 rushing attempts over the last five weeks have resulted in a touchdown when facing Arizona. Other than scoring, this is a tough matchup for yards and receptions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA ARI 003501000 ***
Parker faces fantasy's seventh softest defense of wideouts over the last five weeks of data -- a group that may not have star cornerback Patrick Peterson or FS Tyrann Mathieu. The athletic receiver has found a way in the past month and a half, so gamers should view Parker as quality WR3.

Update: Parker is questionable but fully practiced and should be fine.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA ARI 005500000 ***
Landry faces a defense that has given up the fifth most catches per game and sixth highest yardage average over the last five. He has solid PPR appeal in conventional formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenny Stills, MIA ARI 001200000 ***
Stills has a tough matchup for scoring touchdowns, and without one, his worth is irredeemable for gamers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA ARI 2233 ***
Franks could be a sly fantasy play against Arizona, but he obviously presents risk. The Cards have allowed the fourth highest average of combined kicking chances over the past five weeks.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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