FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: JAC 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 7 )

Players Updated: Cecil Shorts

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon

Let's be serious - not a lot of fantasy value going to be found in this game. The 2-11 Jaguars are 1-5 on the road and thanks the Titans for it not being ten straight losses. The 5-8 Dolphins and on a two game slide as well but are 3-3 at home. If this game ends up with more than about 35 total points it will be all defensive scores.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 210,1
WR Cecil Shorts
TE Clay Harbor 5-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars nightmare season is concluding and they won't be the favored team again until 2013. Assuming they improve. Chad Henne finally declined to the point where he passed for only 185 yards and no touchdowns while throwing two interceptions against the Jets. That was in part because Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion and Antonio Cromartie locked up on Justin Blackmon.

Henne still is an upgrade from Blaine Gabbert but has declined every game in production while getting worse on turnovers. The one positive here - the Fins always allow at least one passing score to every visitor.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out with no timetable when he will return though speculation is that he will be back right after he signs a new contract and not before. So next year, maybe on another team.

Cecil Shorts may still miss this week as well because his concussion kept him out of all practices and he still had a few tests he needed to pass. In his place the Jags started Kevin Elloit who only caught three of his ten throws for 38 yards and was noted by HC Mike Mularkey for dropping so many passes. Jordan Shipley actually managed five receptions for 55 yards and is starting to become a minor player from the slot.

Montel Owens rushed for a career best 91 yards and one score on 14 carries but much of that came on a 32-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter. Rashad Jennings is still dealing with his concussion and Owens is likely to get another start only this time against the #5 defense against the run.

The only fantasy value here is the potential for moderate passing stats and some yards by Justin Blackmon but losing Shorts leaves the Jags with no one else that the defense worries about. That should limit Blackmon as the only viable passing target.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 24 31 13 26 29 30
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 5 15 17 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC MIA 0000019012 ***
Bortles continues to flirt with fantasy relevancy, but he isn't getting there on a consistent enough basis yet to be trusted with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC MIA 6013200000 *
Robinson shredded the Browns last week, and he should be the Jacksonville back who sees the most touches. However, he'll find the going tougher against a Miami defense that's allowed only one back to top 70 yards all season, so dial back those expectations accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC MIA 200000000 **
Update: Gerhart got in two full practices this week and is listed as probable. Denard Robinson will still start; don't expect Gerhart to see much more than token work this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC MIA 007700000 ***
It was a bit shocking that the Bears couldn't get their talented wide receiver tandem going against the Dolphins last week, the first time in three games Miami hadn't ceded fantasy helpers to multiple WRs. If that means we're forced to pick one this week Robinson has the most upside as he's been the most consistently productive of the Jags' receiving corps.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC MIA 003400000 ***
Shorts continues to be the most targeted Jaguar since his return from injury, but last week he failed to turn those targets into productivity. He's not nearly reliable enough to be trusted with a fantasy start against a Miami secondary that's allowed just four WR TDs on the year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC MIA 006400000 ***
Miami has allowed TE TDs in three of four, and Harbor's steady diet of targets at least puts him in line to capitalize on the Dolphins' largess at the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC MIA 0022 ***
Scobee's six-point effort last week was his second-best of the season and pushes his average to more than four fantasy points per game. You have better options at your disposal.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 190
RB Knowshon Moreno 70,1 4-20
RB Daniel Thomas 10,1
WR Brandon Gibson 3-40
WR Brian Hartline 5-70
WR Mike Wallace 5-90,1

Pregame Notes: The Fins have two final home games that can lift them to a 7-8 record but that week 17 game in New England needs to be one where the Pats have nothing to win and let the Fins take the game and end up at .500. Probably not going to happen. The Dolphins offense has sputtered all year and scored more than one touchdown in just one of the last five games.

Ryan Tannehill heads up the worst passing attack in the league. Granted, the Cardinals are in free fall now but the FIns have held fast to their rookie quarterback in every game. Tannehill still only has eight passing touchdowns and rarely tops 200 yards. On the plus side, he doesn't turn the ball over often.

Reggie Bush comes off one of his most productive games of the year when he ran for 65 yards on 14 carries and added five receptions for 38 yards in San Francisco. More importantly, Lamar Miller only took three runs for one net yard and Daniel Thomas only ran twice for three yards. Instead of a three-headed monster, the Fins elected to go heavy with Bush who was far more productive then the other two. That could mean good things with these next two home games against the ultra-weak rushing defenses of the Jaguars and Bills.

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still have no reliable fantasy value other than moderate yardage by Hartline when facing a weak secondary. They also just signed Armon Binns who was released by the Bengals who could not wait until the offseason to part ways with the same guy who started five games for them this year. There is never enough passing here to merit any fantasy starting considerations outside of a reception points league when Hartline plays a bad secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 30 32 27 24
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 26 29 23 5 31 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @JAC 40000027020 ****
While Jacksonville's defensive numbers are better of late, let's be honest: corralling Charlie Whitehurst and Brian Hoyer isn't exactly shutting down Unitas and Title. Tannehill has multiple TDs in three straight, at least 244 yards in each, and a very good shot at being a viable fantasy helper this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @JAC 7012200000 ****
Miller has scored in three straight and rolled up 83 yards last night with no Knowshon Moreno to swipe looks. He should have little difficulty taking care of business again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA @JAC 006901000 ***
Wallace has scored in three straight and five of six this season, and while the Jags' secondary is no pushover there's little reason to think Mike is kept from his appointed rounds here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA @JAC 004600000 ***
The Dolphins always seem to get a second receiver close to fantasy relevancy; a Jags team that's allowed multiple wideouts to either score and/or top 50 yards in five of six should push them over that hump here. And for Miami that second fantasy-relevant receiver is now Landry, so plan accordingly.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA @JAC 004501000 **
Miami tight ends have scored in two of the last three, and Clay is seeing the majority of those targets so he's the odds-on favorite to capitalize against a Jacksonville defense that has already allowed five TE TDs on the season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA @JAC 1133 ***
Sturgis has sniffed around the fringe of fantasy relevancy; a date with a Jaguars defense that's allowing an average of better than 10 kicker points per game provides a definite whiff of opportunity.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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