FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: JAC 16, MIA 20 (Line: MIA by 7 )

Players Updated: Cecil Shorts

Players to Watch: Justin Blackmon

Let's be serious - not a lot of fantasy value going to be found in this game. The 2-11 Jaguars are 1-5 on the road and thanks the Titans for it not being ten straight losses. The 5-8 Dolphins and on a two game slide as well but are 3-3 at home. If this game ends up with more than about 35 total points it will be all defensive scores.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA -----
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE -----
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 210,1
RB Bernard Pierce 20 1-10
WR Justin Blackmon 6-70
TE Clay Harbor 5-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 4-40

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars nightmare season is concluding and they won't be the favored team again until 2013. Assuming they improve. Chad Henne finally declined to the point where he passed for only 185 yards and no touchdowns while throwing two interceptions against the Jets. That was in part because Cecil Shorts was out with a concussion and Antonio Cromartie locked up on Justin Blackmon.

Henne still is an upgrade from Blaine Gabbert but has declined every game in production while getting worse on turnovers. The one positive here - the Fins always allow at least one passing score to every visitor.

Maurice Jones-Drew remains out with no timetable when he will return though speculation is that he will be back right after he signs a new contract and not before. So next year, maybe on another team.

Cecil Shorts may still miss this week as well because his concussion kept him out of all practices and he still had a few tests he needed to pass. In his place the Jags started Kevin Elloit who only caught three of his ten throws for 38 yards and was noted by HC Mike Mularkey for dropping so many passes. Jordan Shipley actually managed five receptions for 55 yards and is starting to become a minor player from the slot.

Montel Owens rushed for a career best 91 yards and one score on 14 carries but much of that came on a 32-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter. Rashad Jennings is still dealing with his concussion and Owens is likely to get another start only this time against the #5 defense against the run.

The only fantasy value here is the potential for moderate passing stats and some yards by Justin Blackmon but losing Shorts leaves the Jags with no one else that the defense worries about. That should limit Blackmon as the only viable passing target.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 24 31 13 26 29 30
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 5 15 17 25 22

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @HOU 20000025022 ***
Bortles travels well, with multiple touchdowns in six straight outside of Jacksonville and 300-plus yards in four of those six. He took the Texans for 331 and 3 in the earlier meeting, and while Houston's defense has been better of late he's still a solid bet for productivity--though it might take until garbage time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Denard Robinson, JAC @HOU 3005400000 ***
Robinson should salvage value as a pass catcher--13-97 receiving in two games sans TJ Yeldon--but he's expected to lose carries to Jonas Gray so limit expectations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jonas Gray, JAC @HOU 300000000 ***
The Jaguars have indicated they want to test-drive Gray this week, though don't expect much against a Houston defense that's given up one RB TD in the past two months and allowed just one RB to top 53 rushing yards since returning from their Week 9 bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @HOU 006801000 ***
Robinson has scored in five straight and scored or topped 100 yards in each of the last 11 games--a streak that includes 6-86-1 against the Texans back in Week 6. You wanna bet against him, you're on your own.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @HOU 004501000 ***
Hurns has 100 yards and a TD in two of the last three, but he's slightly less reliable than his running mate Allen Robinson so in a tough matchup such as this one his expectations get dialed back a bit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Julius Thomas, JAC @HOU 005400000 ***
Thomas made his first Jacksonville splash back in Week 6 with 7-78-1 against the Texans. He's scored four times since but was lightly targeted last week, enough that you need to temper expectations against a Houston defense that's allowed only two TE TDs in the nine games since they last saw Thomas.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @HOU 0022 ***
Two treys last four games;
kicking PATs instead
Rather count by threes

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC -----
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 190
WR Greg Jennings 2-30
TE Jordan Cameron 2-20

Pregame Notes: The Fins have two final home games that can lift them to a 7-8 record but that week 17 game in New England needs to be one where the Pats have nothing to win and let the Fins take the game and end up at .500. Probably not going to happen. The Dolphins offense has sputtered all year and scored more than one touchdown in just one of the last five games.

Ryan Tannehill heads up the worst passing attack in the league. Granted, the Cardinals are in free fall now but the FIns have held fast to their rookie quarterback in every game. Tannehill still only has eight passing touchdowns and rarely tops 200 yards. On the plus side, he doesn't turn the ball over often.

Reggie Bush comes off one of his most productive games of the year when he ran for 65 yards on 14 carries and added five receptions for 38 yards in San Francisco. More importantly, Lamar Miller only took three runs for one net yard and Daniel Thomas only ran twice for three yards. Instead of a three-headed monster, the Fins elected to go heavy with Bush who was far more productive then the other two. That could mean good things with these next two home games against the ultra-weak rushing defenses of the Jaguars and Bills.

Davone Bess and Brian Hartline still have no reliable fantasy value other than moderate yardage by Hartline when facing a weak secondary. They also just signed Armon Binns who was released by the Bengals who could not wait until the offseason to part ways with the same guy who started five games for them this year. There is never enough passing here to merit any fantasy starting considerations outside of a reception points league when Hartline plays a bad secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 31 5 30 32 27 24
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 26 29 23 5 31 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA NE 0000023011 ***
No way can the mercurial Tannehill be trusted. He threw for 300 yards in the earlier meeting with the Pats and topped that number last week but hasn't had a multiple touchdown tame since Week 12. With New England still looking to lock down home field advantage, they won't be mailing this one in; the same can't be said for the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA NE 7004300000 ***
Miller scored last time out against New England, scored last week... and can't be trusted with a fantasy start because the Dolphins inexplicably bench him even when he's producing. There's upside with touches, but Jay Ajayi looms.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, MIA NE 2001100000 ***
At this juncture all Ajayi is doing is sabotaging what little fantasy value Lamar Miller brings to the table each week. Let's hope the Dolphins resolve this situation in the offseason so we don't have another year of this.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA NE 006801000 ***
Landry is always a PPR helper, but that's been about all you can bank on of late. Still, volume often leads to upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeVante Parker, MIA NE 005700000 ***
Parker has taken over Rishard Matthews' gig, and it was Matthews who saw the most WR targets in the earlier meeting with New England. Plus it's been bigger receivers--Brandon Marshall, Dorial Green-Beckham--who have put up the best numbers against the Patriots secondary. So there's a chance Parker falls into some fantasy relevancy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Cameron, MIA NE 003300000 ***
Cameron hasn't topped 35 yards since Week 2 and hasn't scored since Week 11. He's too lightly used to threaten the Patriots, as his earlier 2-34 against them suggests.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Andrew Franks, MIA NE 1111 ***
Multiple treys in
three of 15 games this year
thanks for nothing, Franks

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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