FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, OAK 24 (Line: OAK by 3 )

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden

Here's a game that only fantasy football could like. This is a replay of the week eight game that the Raiders won 26-16 in Kansas City. The 2-11 Chiefs are the AFC equivalent of the Cardinals only without wins to start the year but all the dysfunctionality. The 3-10 Raiders are on a six game losing skid and need a win here before hitting the road for the final two weeks. The bottom line is that this game has two running backs of note and not a lot of any thing else.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 5-40
WR Donnie Avery 5-60,1
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20

Pregame Notes: The season continues to swirl down the drain for the Chiefs who followed up their upset win over the Panthers by getting decimated by the Browns. Even with all players healthy, the Chiefs have not score more than one touchdown in a road game since week three. The season is winding down with virtually nothing accomplished in Romeo Crennel's first season as head coach. Even the parts that sort of worked in the past went bad.

Worst of all, now Dwayne Bowe has injured his ribs and will be out for the rest of the season in what could only be considered a mercy killing. Bowe struggled to bring any sense of production and continuity to the passing game and could never compensate for who was throwing the ball. His departure now pretty much seals the fate of the Chiefs once they fall behind in games sometime early in the first quarter.

Matt Cassel was the starter in the previous meeting and passed for 218 yards and one touchdown to Dexter McCluster who has been a complete nonfactor since that game. Brady Quinn gets the start still searching for that elusive game with more than 201 passing yards. Quinn has only two touchdowns on the seaosn and both came in the upset of the Panthers.

Jonathan Baldwin is now the best receiver left even though he only has one touchdown (Carolina of course) and never reaches the heights of 40 yards per week. Tony Moeaki is the other notable receiver though he has only one touchdown (Carolina of course) and just last week was held to only one catch for ten yards. Moeaki managed four receptions for 57 yards in the first meeting.

Jamaal Charles holds the only fantasy value on this entire team and even he was held to an incredible four yards on five carries in the last meeting in a game that left everyone scratching their head. Charles has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games and is now being fed 20+ carries because there is nothing else worth doing with the ball on every play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 27 18 29
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 30 25 27 30 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC NYJ 0000024021 ****
It's been a month since Smith was fantasy-relevant, but a date with a Jets' team that's given up multiple TDs to every QB it has faced could turn the tables.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC NYJ 7004301000 ****
No doubting Charles, who has six TDs in the past four games and is averaging 104 combo yards per game during that span.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC NYJ 401000000 ****
The Jets haven't allowed multiple RBs to score in the same game all year, and the most yardage a second back has turned in is 32. Knowing that, there's no reason to trot out KC's RB2, at least for now.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC NYJ 006800000 ****
Bowe is what passes for a WR1 in KC, and it's a favorable matchup with a secondary that's allowed five 100-yard receivers already this year. That's about the bounds of our enthusiasm for any element of the Chiefs passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC NYJ 005501000 ***
Kelce continues to share looks with Anthony Fasano, but for the most part he comes out ahead. And that's enough to toss his hat into the fantasy ring against a Jets D that's allowed nine TE TDs in the past six games alone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NYJ 1144 ***
Took the Brazilian a little while to settle in, but he's posted double-digit points in three of his last four and looks to be a solid fantasy option at home this week.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN 10-34
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE 17-20
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN 13-26
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 250,2
RB Darren McFadden 90,1 4-20
RB Marcel Reece 10 5-30
WR Denarius Moore 5-60
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It has been a while since the Raiders last won. Seven games in fact. Back to the last time they got to play the Chiefs. This is the final home game of the year and a chance to finish with a positive before heading off to Carolina and San Diego for the final losses. Like the Chiefs, the season is winding down without really any progress geing made other than proving definitively that Darren McFadden is never going to play a full season and that the Raiders defense is never going to hold anyone to under 20 points. Except for the Chiefs.

Carson Palmer passed for 209 yards and two scores in the last meeting with the Chiefs and he has notched a touchdown in all but one game this season. He's thrown two scores or more in six of the last seven outings as well but there is one small caveat to know about using Palmer this week. HC Dennis Allen has picked up along the way that this season is really over already. And he wants to get a look at Terrell Pryor at quarterback. What better place than at home agianst the Chiefs? Pryor may not play at all but at least this raised the specter that Palmer may not get a full game this week or the final two.

Allen also is considering changing Taiwan Jones from running back back to cornerback which he played in college and Jones is open to the change having noted that he is going nowhere as a running back anyway.

Darren McFadden rushed for a season best 29 carries for 114 yards and added four receptions for 23 more yards in Kansas City this season. He has not gained more than 52 rushing yards in any other game and missed four games already. He was back last week and ran for 52 yards on 11 runs versus the Broncos and scored on a reception as well. He is the only safe play - such as it exists on this team. At least this week should see him end the year with at least one more decent game.

If Pryor was used, that would impact the passing game to some unknown extent. In the last meeting with the Chiefs, Darrius Heyward-Bey scored on his only catch and Denarius Moore also scored with five receptions for 96 yards. This is a chance to use your Raiders receivers but there is more risk at least potentially than there would be midseason.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 12 19 14 7 13 32
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 22 20 16 16 22 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @SEA 0000017012 ****
Carr's had a couple of decent fantasy efforts during his rookie campaign; asking him to go to Seattle and pull one off... well, that's a bit too aggressive.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK @SEA 4004200000 ***
McFadden is unlikely to dent the Seahawks on the ground, but he could salvage fantasy value via the air against a Seattle defense that's allowing almost 50 RB receiving yards per game over the past month.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK @SEA 40130000 ***
MJD's last two game have seen him carry the ball nine times for 14 yards. Ugh.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @SEA 005600000 **
Holmes will get his targets; the key will be holding on to them. Not enough upside here to warrant a start against a secondary that could very well throttle the life out of Oakland's passing game without blinking an eye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @SEA 003400000 ***
The Seahawks haven't allowed a WR TD since Week 5 or a WR TD at home since the season opener. Oakland's cast of characters doesn't feel like the group that's going to crack that code.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kenbrell Thompkins, OAK @SEA 002300000 ***
If you were wondering where Kenbrell Thompkins ended up... well, here he is. He saw eight targets last week, but given this matchup with Seattle's secondary that number--as well as what Thompkins can do with those catches--is likely to dwindle.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @SEA 003201000 *
Maybe the Raiders' best hope for fantasy value this week comes in the form of Rivera, who posted 7-83 on nine targets last week. He'll have a chance to exploit the lone fantasy weakness in this defense, an inability to defend tight ends. Seattle has surrendered eight TE TDs already this season; if Oakland is to get one, Rivera's probably the best bet.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @SEA 1111 ***
Seabass has yet to hit double-digit points, and Seattle seems like an unlikely venue for him to reach that milestone.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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