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David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, OAK 24 (Line: OAK by 3 )

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden

Here's a game that only fantasy football could like. This is a replay of the week eight game that the Raiders won 26-16 in Kansas City. The 2-11 Chiefs are the AFC equivalent of the Cardinals only without wins to start the year but all the dysfunctionality. The 3-10 Raiders are on a six game losing skid and need a win here before hitting the road for the final two weeks. The bottom line is that this game has two running backs of note and not a lot of any thing else.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The season continues to swirl down the drain for the Chiefs who followed up their upset win over the Panthers by getting decimated by the Browns. Even with all players healthy, the Chiefs have not score more than one touchdown in a road game since week three. The season is winding down with virtually nothing accomplished in Romeo Crennel's first season as head coach. Even the parts that sort of worked in the past went bad.

Worst of all, now Dwayne Bowe has injured his ribs and will be out for the rest of the season in what could only be considered a mercy killing. Bowe struggled to bring any sense of production and continuity to the passing game and could never compensate for who was throwing the ball. His departure now pretty much seals the fate of the Chiefs once they fall behind in games sometime early in the first quarter.

Matt Cassel was the starter in the previous meeting and passed for 218 yards and one touchdown to Dexter McCluster who has been a complete nonfactor since that game. Brady Quinn gets the start still searching for that elusive game with more than 201 passing yards. Quinn has only two touchdowns on the seaosn and both came in the upset of the Panthers.

Jonathan Baldwin is now the best receiver left even though he only has one touchdown (Carolina of course) and never reaches the heights of 40 yards per week. Tony Moeaki is the other notable receiver though he has only one touchdown (Carolina of course) and just last week was held to only one catch for ten yards. Moeaki managed four receptions for 57 yards in the first meeting.

Jamaal Charles holds the only fantasy value on this entire team and even he was held to an incredible four yards on five carries in the last meeting in a game that left everyone scratching their head. Charles has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games and is now being fed 20+ carries because there is nothing else worth doing with the ball on every play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 27 18 29
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 30 25 27 30 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @NYG 10000032030 ***
Smith comes back from his bye week to face fantasy's best matchup for quarterbacks. New York is the worst team at defending in yardage, points per play, yards per completion, and fantasy points surrendered per contest. The Giants have permitted a touchdown pass every 9.1 completions, which ranks tied fourth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @NYG 8004400000 ***
This is largely a moderate matchup on the ground and through the air. The Giants have not given up a receiving score on the last 20 grabs, but this is the ninth-best matchup for rushing TD frequency. This is the 10th-best matchup for overall yardage production on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @NYG 0051001000 ***
Following a week off to recover from some bumps and bruises, Hill gets to face the second-best matchup of Week 11. The Giants have given up six TDs to WRs in the last four games, and only Houston has provided more yardage on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demarcus Robinson, KC @NYG 003500000 ***
Robinson has seen an uptick in playing time since Chris Conley went down. Wideouts have averaged 13.8 receptions for 215.3 yards and a TD ever 9.2 catches, or 1.5 per game, since Week 5. The Chiefs are coming back from a bye week and could give Robinson a few chances to make a big play. Starting him isn't exactly the safest move one can make, but it could pay off.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @NYG 0071002000 ***
The Giants have given up a touchdown every game this year to the position. KC comes back from his bye week and takes on a team allowing a TD every four catches by tight ends. This is the second-best matchup in both scoring formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC @NYG 3333 ***
All but two of the 22 kicks (both field goals) have made their final destination against the Giants. Despite missing two field goals, 1.5 per game have made it through the pipes. This is a top-12 matchup.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN 10-34
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE 17-20
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN 13-26
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Marshawn Lynch 110,1 2-10
WR Michael Crabtree 6-80,1
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It has been a while since the Raiders last won. Seven games in fact. Back to the last time they got to play the Chiefs. This is the final home game of the year and a chance to finish with a positive before heading off to Carolina and San Diego for the final losses. Like the Chiefs, the season is winding down without really any progress geing made other than proving definitively that Darren McFadden is never going to play a full season and that the Raiders defense is never going to hold anyone to under 20 points. Except for the Chiefs.

Carson Palmer passed for 209 yards and two scores in the last meeting with the Chiefs and he has notched a touchdown in all but one game this season. He's thrown two scores or more in six of the last seven outings as well but there is one small caveat to know about using Palmer this week. HC Dennis Allen has picked up along the way that this season is really over already. And he wants to get a look at Terrell Pryor at quarterback. What better place than at home agianst the Chiefs? Pryor may not play at all but at least this raised the specter that Palmer may not get a full game this week or the final two.

Allen also is considering changing Taiwan Jones from running back back to cornerback which he played in college and Jones is open to the change having noted that he is going nowhere as a running back anyway.

Darren McFadden rushed for a season best 29 carries for 114 yards and added four receptions for 23 more yards in Kansas City this season. He has not gained more than 52 rushing yards in any other game and missed four games already. He was back last week and ran for 52 yards on 11 runs versus the Broncos and scored on a reception as well. He is the only safe play - such as it exists on this team. At least this week should see him end the year with at least one more decent game.

If Pryor was used, that would impact the passing game to some unknown extent. In the last meeting with the Chiefs, Darrius Heyward-Bey scored on his only catch and Denarius Moore also scored with five receptions for 96 yards. This is a chance to use your Raiders receivers but there is more risk at least potentially than there would be midseason.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 12 19 14 7 13 32
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 22 20 16 16 22 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK NE 0000031021 ***
Since the early-season woes of this pass defense, the Patriots have turned things around to be respectable against the position. All told, this is the 11th-best defense since Week 5, giving up 255 aerial yards and 1.3 TDs per contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, OAK NE 600000000 ***
Beast Mode-lite has no fantasy efficacy without crossing the stripe, and the Patriots have done a masterful job of preventing such of late. Only one time in the last 84 carries has a rushing touchdown been scored vs. New England.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jalen Richard, OAK NE 1005400000 ***
One time a running back has scored in the last four games against the Patriots, and none of the 18 receptions against went the distance. Keep Richard in reserve, unless you're feeling lucky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeAndre Washington, OAK NE 2001100000 ***
Washington faces a brutal matchup and is part of a three-pronged attack. The Patriots have given up just one TD in the last 102 offensive touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, OAK NE 005801000 ***
New England usually keys on stopping one player from the opposing offense and then allows everything to fall into place. Is it Crabtree this week, or will they look to eliminate Amari Cooper? It's probably Crabtree, since Coop does a good job most weeks of removing himself via drops. Either way, Crabs is the safer play and has a sliver of upside against the fifth-softest defense of his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Amari Cooper, OAK NE 003400000 ***
This defense has done well at limiting touchdowns to wideouts, relatively speaking, based on how many catches it allows. Since Week 5, wideouts have averaged the fifth-highest volume of per-game snares while going to the end zone once every 13.8 hauls, or once per game. Cooper is impressively underachieving.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, OAK NE 006601000 ***
No team has yielded fewer fantasy points in PPR than the Patriots against this position. Cook takes on a defense allowing 3.8 catches for 23.5 yards and a TD every 15 snags.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Giorgio Tavecchio, OAK NE 2222 ***
No team has been stronger against kickers than the Patriots since Week 4, and most of that is because the position has made a paltry 4-for-10 from distance.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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