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David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: KC 10, OAK 24 (Line: OAK by 3 )

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Darren McFadden

Here's a game that only fantasy football could like. This is a replay of the week eight game that the Raiders won 26-16 in Kansas City. The 2-11 Chiefs are the AFC equivalent of the Cardinals only without wins to start the year but all the dysfunctionality. The 3-10 Raiders are on a six game losing skid and need a win here before hitting the road for the final two weeks. The bottom line is that this game has two running backs of note and not a lot of any thing else.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK -----
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 5-40
WR Donnie Avery 5-60,1
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20

Pregame Notes: The season continues to swirl down the drain for the Chiefs who followed up their upset win over the Panthers by getting decimated by the Browns. Even with all players healthy, the Chiefs have not score more than one touchdown in a road game since week three. The season is winding down with virtually nothing accomplished in Romeo Crennel's first season as head coach. Even the parts that sort of worked in the past went bad.

Worst of all, now Dwayne Bowe has injured his ribs and will be out for the rest of the season in what could only be considered a mercy killing. Bowe struggled to bring any sense of production and continuity to the passing game and could never compensate for who was throwing the ball. His departure now pretty much seals the fate of the Chiefs once they fall behind in games sometime early in the first quarter.

Matt Cassel was the starter in the previous meeting and passed for 218 yards and one touchdown to Dexter McCluster who has been a complete nonfactor since that game. Brady Quinn gets the start still searching for that elusive game with more than 201 passing yards. Quinn has only two touchdowns on the seaosn and both came in the upset of the Panthers.

Jonathan Baldwin is now the best receiver left even though he only has one touchdown (Carolina of course) and never reaches the heights of 40 yards per week. Tony Moeaki is the other notable receiver though he has only one touchdown (Carolina of course) and just last week was held to only one catch for ten yards. Moeaki managed four receptions for 57 yards in the first meeting.

Jamaal Charles holds the only fantasy value on this entire team and even he was held to an incredible four yards on five carries in the last meeting in a game that left everyone scratching their head. Charles has topped 100 rushing yards in four of the last five games and is now being fed 20+ carries because there is nothing else worth doing with the ball on every play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 3 32 27 18 29
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 28 30 25 27 30 16

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC STL 0000019020 ***
The Rams have served up multiple passing TDs in four straight and five of six, as well as back-to-back 300-yard outings to a pair of quarterbacks known more for their running than their throwing. The last time Smith got home cooking he lit up the Patriots for three TDs; have to like his chances of something similar this time around.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC STL 9013201000 ****
On the one hand, a Rams D that's allowed only one RB TD all season. On the other, Charles as the focal point of the Kansas City offense. Expect Andy Reid to find ways of getting the ball into Charles' hands--and Charles to find ways of getting the ball into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC STL 400000000 ***
Davis' 11 touches last week suggest he'll be getting a larger share of the workload than previously anticipated; however, the 31 yards those 11 touches produced suggest he still won't be much of a fantasy factor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC STL 005801000 **
Opposing WR1s have scored in four straight against the Rams, and Bowe is what passes for a WR1 in Kansas City.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR A.J. Jenkins, KC STL 002400000 ***
Usually there's no need in identifying a WR2 for the Chiefs as their passing game production barely fills the WR1 cup let alone secondary targets. However, the Rams have allowed 10 different receivers to score and/or top 50 yards in just the past four games, so there should be enough for another fantasy helper here. That said, good luck finding one amongst this mötley crüe.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC STL 004300000 ****
The Rams haven't given up much to tight ends this year, though Cooper Helfet got them for a TD last week. Kelce has scored in three of the past four games, so if Helfet opened a door Kelce should be able to push his way through into fantasy relevancy once again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC STL 1133 ***
Last week's hero now has double-digit efforts in two of the past three games and could be viewed as a fringe fantasy helper here.

Oakland Raiders
Homefield: McAfee Coliseum
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SD 14-22 10 @BAL 20-55
2 @MIA 13-35 11 NO 17-38
3 PIT 34-31 12 @CIN 10-34
4 @DEN 6-37 13 CLE 17-20
5 BYE ----- 14 DEN 13-26
6 @ATL 20-23 15 KC -----
7 JAC 26-23 16 @CAR -----
8 @KC 26-16 17 @SD -----
9 TB 32-42 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 250,2
RB Darren McFadden 90,1 4-20
RB Marcel Reece 10 5-30
WR Denarius Moore 5-60
PK Sebastian Janikowski 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It has been a while since the Raiders last won. Seven games in fact. Back to the last time they got to play the Chiefs. This is the final home game of the year and a chance to finish with a positive before heading off to Carolina and San Diego for the final losses. Like the Chiefs, the season is winding down without really any progress geing made other than proving definitively that Darren McFadden is never going to play a full season and that the Raiders defense is never going to hold anyone to under 20 points. Except for the Chiefs.

Carson Palmer passed for 209 yards and two scores in the last meeting with the Chiefs and he has notched a touchdown in all but one game this season. He's thrown two scores or more in six of the last seven outings as well but there is one small caveat to know about using Palmer this week. HC Dennis Allen has picked up along the way that this season is really over already. And he wants to get a look at Terrell Pryor at quarterback. What better place than at home agianst the Chiefs? Pryor may not play at all but at least this raised the specter that Palmer may not get a full game this week or the final two.

Allen also is considering changing Taiwan Jones from running back back to cornerback which he played in college and Jones is open to the change having noted that he is going nowhere as a running back anyway.

Darren McFadden rushed for a season best 29 carries for 114 yards and added four receptions for 23 more yards in Kansas City this season. He has not gained more than 52 rushing yards in any other game and missed four games already. He was back last week and ran for 52 yards on 11 runs versus the Broncos and scored on a reception as well. He is the only safe play - such as it exists on this team. At least this week should see him end the year with at least one more decent game.

If Pryor was used, that would impact the passing game to some unknown extent. In the last meeting with the Chiefs, Darrius Heyward-Bey scored on his only catch and Denarius Moore also scored with five receptions for 96 yards. This is a chance to use your Raiders receivers but there is more risk at least potentially than there would be midseason.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 12 19 14 7 13 32
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 22 20 16 16 22 31

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Derek Carr, OAK @CLE 0000020011 ***
Carr flashed a couple weeks back against the Chargers, but that was an island of competency in a season-long sea of no fantasy help whatsoever. Not that the Browns' secondary has been particularly good this season--quite the opposite--but you shouldn't bank on the rookie for help here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren McFadden, OAK @CLE 5004200000 ****
Four of six feature backs to face the Browns have rushed for at least 80 yards and a touchdown; with enough touches McFadden could very well do the same. He's a sneaky fantasy play if you're desperate for running back help this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK @CLE 50000000 ***
MoJo's next fantasy-relevant moment as a Raider will be his first. Could happen in this favorable matchup, but right now it appears as if they're willing to ride Darren McFadden right up to his next injury.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, OAK @CLE 005501000 **
No need to fear Joe Haden anymore--or Buster Skreen, for that matter. Jones is the closest thing the Raiders have to a reliable contributor in the passing game, so he's the best bet to capitalize on this dramatically underachieving secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, OAK @CLE 003500000 **
Holmes whetted appetites before dashing hopes with a couple of drops last week. It's a favorable matchup against an underachieving secondary, but it will be tough to trust Holmes with a fantasy lineup spot until he demonstrates some consistency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brice Butler, OAK @CLE 002300000 ***
Butler might be becoming the Raiders new favorite "go deep" guy. Against a secondary that's struggled as much as the Browns have, there's fantasy value in that role this week. High risk, but there's definitely home run potential here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Mychal Rivera, OAK @CLE 002100000 ***
Jimmy Graham scored the only two TE TDs the Browns have allowed, but that's probably because Joe Haden was covering him. No need to extend that courtesy to Rivera, who is still looking for his first TD--or 35-yard game--of the year.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK @CLE 2211 ***
SeaBass's next double-digit game will be his first, and he's averaging an anemic four points per game. You have better options.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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