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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 17, TEN 20 (Line: TEN by 1 )

Players Updated: Bilal Powell

Players to Watch: All the running backs

The 6-7 Jets have won their last two games - albeit against the Jaguars and Cardinals - and bring their 3-3 road record to face the 4-9 Titans who have lost their last three games and are just 2-4 at home. Neither team has much of an offense and this game is most likely to go off as yet another "under".

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 90,1 4-20
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-80

Pregame Notes: The Jets are finishing out the season and there is a chance that they could end up running the table and then ending with a respectable 9-7 record. Their final three opponents all have losing records but two will happen on the road and there is nothing about this offense that says they are getting any better. The only appropriate action by now is to wait and then as a surprise allow Tim Tebow to take the start in week 17 and then say nothing about it in the post-game interview.

Mark Sanchez has declined to the point where he has not scored in the last two games and only threw for 97 and 111 yards in them. He's scored just twice in the last five weeks while remaining safely under 200 yards in all games not facing the Patriots. The Jets won their last two games but only scored 24 combined points. It is not the offense that ticks the win column.

Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell are now splitting carries in half and at least Powell scored four times in the last four weeks while Green managed just one in jacksonville. The combination of the two is a working backfield so long as the opponents remain below average which happens in Tennessee this week. The Titans are weaker against running backs but mostly from them scoring and picking up receiving yardage as well than from just pure running yardage. Neither runner here matter much as a receiver. Only once has either caught more than two passes in a game and usually they only have one or none. The offense likes to run if only because they cannot throw.

The miniscule passing yardage of recent weeks is a testament to how bad these receivers are and the injuries have not stopped. Stephen Hill has a bum knee now and the Jets re-signed Braylon Edwards off waivers from the Seahawks. The bottom line here is that the only fantasy value left is from Greene and Powell who make modest flex players in larger leagues.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 28 20 31 11
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 31 17 28 29 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ @DEN 20000021011 ***
No squad has been softer on quarterbacks throwing touchdowns than the Broncos in the past five weeks. One in 6.8 completions has gone into the end zone, and Denver has just two picks. The yardage against is a paltry 235.8, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @DEN 3005401000 ***
Forte could be a decent flex play or even a weak RB2 in PPR. The Broncos have yielded most of the damage on the ground when it comes to yardage, but this is easily is the worst team at defending pass-catching backs. One of every 5.75 catches has gone into the end zone.

Update: The veteran sat, partially practiced and sat again this week. He is listed as questionable, a gametime decision.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @DEN 4002100000 ***
This is the No. 2 matchup for exploitation in Week 14. Over the past five weeks, the Broncos have allowed 116.6 rushing yards and 35.6 receiving yards, on average, giving up six rushing scores and four (4!!!) receiving TDs to the position.

Update: Matt Forte is questionable and didn't go Wednesday and Friday. He will be a lineup decision shortly before kickoff.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @DEN 004500000 ***
This is a low-tier matchup for receptions (27th) and yardage (23rd), but Denver has permitted a wide receiver to score every 8.5 catches (4th). Since Week 8, six of the 51 receptions have made it into the end zone in five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @DEN 003400000 ***
Kearse has come back around after a quiet spell. The Broncos could return him to the land of fantasy frustrations, though. This matchup is great for finding the end zone, having given up six touchdowns over 51 catches in the last five games. That's the fourth-softest rate. Otherwise, it sits in the bottom 10 for receptions and subsequent yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ @DEN 006501000 ***
Seferian-Jenkins hasn't scored in the past four games, but that should change against Denver's feeble defense of the position. Since Week 8, only San Fran has been a friendlier matchup for scoring a touchdown. On in 5.3 catches goes into the end zone, on average, and the Broncos have allowed the ninth-most yardage to the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @DEN 3311 ***
This is the best matchup for PATs and the second-worst for three-pointers. In best-case scenario, it would be only the No. 16 matchup of the week.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 250,1
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 4-20
WR Eric Decker 3-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have two more chances to get a win - here and then again in the final game against the visiting Jaguars. The second season of Mike Munchak has not gone nearly as well dropping from a 9-7 record down to a 4-9 currently but then again the Colts didn't give them two freebies this year. The offense is better with Chris Johnson more back to form but the passing effort has fallen short in nearly every game and Jake Locker missing six games slowed down the development.

Locker is getting better. He has scored in every start this year and his last three efforts all topped 260 pass yards. He has only nine scores in seven games and a recent spate of turnovers has left him with nine on the year mostly thanks to the Texans. He'll face one of the best secondaries this week but the Jets always play worse on the road.

As usual, Chris Johnson will be the main weapon this week and should see 20+ carries with nice results against a defense that has already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs. Johnson has been less effective for three weeks now and only produced 44 yards on 19 carries in Indianapolis last week. He runs better at home though and there is certainly no reason to hold him back. The Jets will make passing tough enough and success with the run will only prompt more rushing.

Jared Cook was placed on injured reserve with a torn rotator cuff and while Craig Stevens took his place, he still only had his normal single catch last week. One change is the healthy scratch of Lavelle Hawkins last week and the promotion of Michael Preston from the practice squad. He only managed to catch one pass but it serves as more evidence that losing teams are willing to try out new players at the end of the season.

Kenny Britt finally had a nice game this year when he caught eight passes for 143 yards in Indianapolis - over double his previous best of the year. That should only attract more attention from Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 27 18 12 20 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 26 7 23 18 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN @ARI 20000023011 ***
This matchup works well with Mariota's profile. The Cardinals are one of three teams to have allowed quarterbacks to rush for three touchdowns in the last five weeks. The matchup is otherwise poor, with the position averaging 228.4 yards and a TD every 18.4 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN @ARI 6013200000 ***
Murray has been on the downswing in recent weeks, and it's easy to look at the raw stats to say Derrick Henry is poised to overtake him. Don't count on it just yet. This matchup, in particular, drastically favors the more versatile Murray. Arizona has provided almost nothing in the way of RB success on the ground in the past five games, whereas the position has racked up the most receptions and second-highest receiving average per game. The projections don't agree, which means there is even more upside to what was predicted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN @ARI 400000000 ***
A breakaway touchdown run put Henry in good graces with fantasy owners who started him. He scampered 75 yards, leaving himself with a 3.4 yards-per-carry average over his other 10 carries. Arizona has given up only two ground scores over the past 99 carries, holding backs to a paltry 66.4 rushing yards since Week 8.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN @ARI 004600000 *
Matthews believes he can return. His status will be updated later in the week. Check back for more information.

Update: Matthews was removed from the injury report and is a fringe lineup play against a rather strong Cardinals defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN @ARI 003300000 ***
It has been more than a month since Decker has scored his only touchdown of the year, and he has one game with more than four catches and at least 50 yards. Look elsewhere, especially with a stingy matchup like Arizona offers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Davis, TEN @ARI 002200000 *
Arizona has really turned it around against receivers over the past five weeks. The Titans face a defense that has given up 9.6 receptions (3rd-fewest), 130 yards (5th-fewest) and a TD every 24 catches (6th-fewest) on a weekly rate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @ARI 006601000 ***
Not a good matchup for catches (20th) or yardage (28th), the Cardinals have granted a tight end to score every seven grabs. This amounts to three over the last five games. It doesn't look impressive, but considering how Arizona limits catches in general, gamers could do worse.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @ARI 1122 ***
Succop faces a mediocre matchup against a Cardinals team that has allowed kickers to average 7.8 fantasy points since Week 8. The position has gone 9-for-9 on three-pointers and 12-for-13 on TD-cappers in that time.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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