FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 17, TEN 20 (Line: TEN by 1 )

Players Updated: Bilal Powell

Players to Watch: All the running backs

The 6-7 Jets have won their last two games - albeit against the Jaguars and Cardinals - and bring their 3-3 road record to face the 4-9 Titans who have lost their last three games and are just 2-4 at home. Neither team has much of an offense and this game is most likely to go off as yet another "under".

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 220,1
RB Matt Forte 90,1 4-20
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 3-40
WR Brandon Marshall 9-80,1
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets are finishing out the season and there is a chance that they could end up running the table and then ending with a respectable 9-7 record. Their final three opponents all have losing records but two will happen on the road and there is nothing about this offense that says they are getting any better. The only appropriate action by now is to wait and then as a surprise allow Tim Tebow to take the start in week 17 and then say nothing about it in the post-game interview.

Mark Sanchez has declined to the point where he has not scored in the last two games and only threw for 97 and 111 yards in them. He's scored just twice in the last five weeks while remaining safely under 200 yards in all games not facing the Patriots. The Jets won their last two games but only scored 24 combined points. It is not the offense that ticks the win column.

Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell are now splitting carries in half and at least Powell scored four times in the last four weeks while Green managed just one in jacksonville. The combination of the two is a working backfield so long as the opponents remain below average which happens in Tennessee this week. The Titans are weaker against running backs but mostly from them scoring and picking up receiving yardage as well than from just pure running yardage. Neither runner here matter much as a receiver. Only once has either caught more than two passes in a game and usually they only have one or none. The offense likes to run if only because they cannot throw.

The miniscule passing yardage of recent weeks is a testament to how bad these receivers are and the injuries have not stopped. Stephen Hill has a bum knee now and the Jets re-signed Braylon Edwards off waivers from the Seahawks. The bottom line here is that the only fantasy value left is from Greene and Powell who make modest flex players in larger leagues.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 28 20 31 11
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 31 17 28 29 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ @SF 0000018011 *
Even facing a terrible pass defense like the Niners, Petty should remain firmly planted on the fantasy waiver wire.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @SF 11013200000 ***
Look for the Jets to pound the heck out of Forte in this one ... the Niners are fantasy worst defense of the position, and keeping Bryce Petty from making big mistakes will be the focus.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @SF 3001100000 ***
About the only thing San Fran hasn't be dreadful at versus running backs is giving up receptions -- the position has averaged 4.6 per game in the last five weeks. Otherwise, we're looking at easily the game's best matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @SF 005501000 ***
To Anderson's credit, he scored last week with Bryce Petty under center. The opponent is pathetic against receivers, so if you're a believer, take a flier on Anderson in DFS or deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @SF 005500000 *
Marshall will see his fair share of looks, but the last time we saw Bryce Petty under center for an extended amount of action, Marshall was in the shadows. Play him only if you have no better choice, because at least the matchup is worth it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @SF 003300000 *
Enunwa is too inconsistent to deserve much lineup consideration in Week 14. The Jets also are turning back to Bryce Petty, so even with a great matchup, Enunwa is a fringe play in the deepest of setups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @SF 1122 ***
How ugly ... a terrible defense versus a pathetic offense. San Fran has allowed only nine field goal attempts in the last five games, while kickers have nailed 17 of 18 XPAs in this period (worst in the league).

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 4-20
WR Kendall Wright 4-50
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have two more chances to get a win - here and then again in the final game against the visiting Jaguars. The second season of Mike Munchak has not gone nearly as well dropping from a 9-7 record down to a 4-9 currently but then again the Colts didn't give them two freebies this year. The offense is better with Chris Johnson more back to form but the passing effort has fallen short in nearly every game and Jake Locker missing six games slowed down the development.

Locker is getting better. He has scored in every start this year and his last three efforts all topped 260 pass yards. He has only nine scores in seven games and a recent spate of turnovers has left him with nine on the year mostly thanks to the Texans. He'll face one of the best secondaries this week but the Jets always play worse on the road.

As usual, Chris Johnson will be the main weapon this week and should see 20+ carries with nice results against a defense that has already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs. Johnson has been less effective for three weeks now and only produced 44 yards on 19 carries in Indianapolis last week. He runs better at home though and there is certainly no reason to hold him back. The Jets will make passing tough enough and success with the run will only prompt more rushing.

Jared Cook was placed on injured reserve with a torn rotator cuff and while Craig Stevens took his place, he still only had his normal single catch last week. One change is the healthy scratch of Lavelle Hawkins last week and the promotion of Michael Preston from the practice squad. He only managed to catch one pass but it serves as more evidence that losing teams are willing to try out new players at the end of the season.

Kenny Britt finally had a nice game this year when he caught eight passes for 143 yards in Indianapolis - over double his previous best of the year. That should only attract more attention from Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 27 18 12 20 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 26 7 23 18 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN DEN 0000022011 ***
Denver ranks 28th in yards per game allowed, 28th in TD efficiency allowed, 24th in yards per completion granted, and 30th in fantasy points given up since Week 8. Mariota is a risky deal even coming off the bye.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN DEN 10002200000 ***
This is how you beat Denver ... pound it. The Broncos are the eighth best matchup for exploitation over the last five weeks, giving up 161 offense yards, on average, to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN DEN 401000000 ***
Fresh off a bye, the rookie should see enough touches to matter. He has flex value in non-PPR leagues against fantasy's eighth worst defense of the position over the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN DEN 004500000 ***
Matthews has been among the hottest receivers in fantasy this season, and especially the last five weeks. The Broncos have shown some flaws in that window, but we're still looking at one of the best defenses against the position. Matthews isn't worth the risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN DEN 003400000 ***
Denver has stifled receivers in all season long. Sharpe is too risky of a play with an unfavorable matchup to boot. Avoid him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN DEN 003300000 ***
Wright should not be trusted in a traditional fantasy contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN DEN 007701000 ***
Denver has registered the fewest points allowed since Week 8 by tight ends to its credit of defensive awesomeness. Walker is a different dude, though, so the 15-149-0 line in four games could be threatened in one week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN DEN 2222 ***
Succop has minor appeal as a streaming pick against a Denver team that has allowed two field goal attempts and 2.25 extra point tries per game over the last five weeks.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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