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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 17, TEN 20 (Line: TEN by 1 )

Players Updated: Bilal Powell

Players to Watch: All the running backs

The 6-7 Jets have won their last two games - albeit against the Jaguars and Cardinals - and bring their 3-3 road record to face the 4-9 Titans who have lost their last three games and are just 2-4 at home. Neither team has much of an offense and this game is most likely to go off as yet another "under".

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Johnson 70,1 3-20
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Eric Decker 3-40
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-80
TE Jeff Cumberland 5-50
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets are finishing out the season and there is a chance that they could end up running the table and then ending with a respectable 9-7 record. Their final three opponents all have losing records but two will happen on the road and there is nothing about this offense that says they are getting any better. The only appropriate action by now is to wait and then as a surprise allow Tim Tebow to take the start in week 17 and then say nothing about it in the post-game interview.

Mark Sanchez has declined to the point where he has not scored in the last two games and only threw for 97 and 111 yards in them. He's scored just twice in the last five weeks while remaining safely under 200 yards in all games not facing the Patriots. The Jets won their last two games but only scored 24 combined points. It is not the offense that ticks the win column.

Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell are now splitting carries in half and at least Powell scored four times in the last four weeks while Green managed just one in jacksonville. The combination of the two is a working backfield so long as the opponents remain below average which happens in Tennessee this week. The Titans are weaker against running backs but mostly from them scoring and picking up receiving yardage as well than from just pure running yardage. Neither runner here matter much as a receiver. Only once has either caught more than two passes in a game and usually they only have one or none. The offense likes to run if only because they cannot throw.

The miniscule passing yardage of recent weeks is a testament to how bad these receivers are and the injuries have not stopped. Stephen Hill has a bum knee now and the Jets re-signed Braylon Edwards off waivers from the Seahawks. The bottom line here is that the only fantasy value left is from Greene and Powell who make modest flex players in larger leagues.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 28 20 31 11
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 31 17 28 29 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @MIA 20000016001 **
How Smith kept his job after 65 yards and no TDs against the Dolphins in the earlier meeting is one of life's great mysteries. His season has been largely devoid of fantasy help; no reason to think he breaks ranks here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @MIA 5001100000 ***
When Geno Smith is your quarterback, running the ball--a lot--is the offensive game plan of choice. Ivory carried 16 times for 62 yards in the earlier meeting with Miami; he's bound to see double-digit totes again, though he may wind up playing second-fiddle to Chris Johnson like he did the last time these teams met.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @MIA 4002100000 ***
Handing the ball to CJ?K 10-plus times a game is preferable to having Geno Smith throw on those plays, so expect Johnson to see double-digit touches for the fifth straight game; he's averaging around 65 yards per game, so if that helps your fantasy bottom line go ahead and give him a spin.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @MIA 005500000 ***
Jets wideouts accounted for 26 receiving yards the last time they faced Miami. Decker's actually been decent since then with games of 89 and 100 yards, but banking on the Jets' passing game for productivity is a recipe for disaster regardless of opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @MIA 003200000 ***
The Jets can barely keep a WR1 satiated with stats; Kerley's a WR3 who could bump up to WR2 status if Percy Harvin can't play, but neither role gets him onto your fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @MIA 002100000 ***
Jeff Cumberland has seen more action while Amaro battles injuries and adjustment to the NFL. He has the potential to be a helpful fantasy player--just not this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @MIA 3300 ***
Foles has multiple treys in three of his last four, including two in the earlier meeting with Miami. You trust Geno to get the Jets close, go ahead and rely on Folk for your fantasy squad.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 20 240,1
RB Shonn Greene 70,1
RB Dexter McCluster 6-50
WR Kris Durham 3-40
WR Nate Washington 2-30
WR Kendall Wright 4-50
TE Craig Stevens 4-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have two more chances to get a win - here and then again in the final game against the visiting Jaguars. The second season of Mike Munchak has not gone nearly as well dropping from a 9-7 record down to a 4-9 currently but then again the Colts didn't give them two freebies this year. The offense is better with Chris Johnson more back to form but the passing effort has fallen short in nearly every game and Jake Locker missing six games slowed down the development.

Locker is getting better. He has scored in every start this year and his last three efforts all topped 260 pass yards. He has only nine scores in seven games and a recent spate of turnovers has left him with nine on the year mostly thanks to the Texans. He'll face one of the best secondaries this week but the Jets always play worse on the road.

As usual, Chris Johnson will be the main weapon this week and should see 20+ carries with nice results against a defense that has already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs. Johnson has been less effective for three weeks now and only produced 44 yards on 19 carries in Indianapolis last week. He runs better at home though and there is certainly no reason to hold him back. The Jets will make passing tough enough and success with the run will only prompt more rushing.

Jared Cook was placed on injured reserve with a torn rotator cuff and while Craig Stevens took his place, he still only had his normal single catch last week. One change is the healthy scratch of Lavelle Hawkins last week and the promotion of Michael Preston from the practice squad. He only managed to catch one pass but it serves as more evidence that losing teams are willing to try out new players at the end of the season.

Kenny Britt finally had a nice game this year when he caught eight passes for 143 yards in Indianapolis - over double his previous best of the year. That should only attract more attention from Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 27 18 12 20 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 26 7 23 18 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN IND 0000020011 ***
Whitehurst saw plenty of action in the earlier game with Indy, throwing for 177 yards and a touchdown. That's actually a pretty typical game for him; no reason to set your expectations differently.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN IND 5011100000 **
Sankey scored in the earlier meeting with Indy, and at this juncture there's really no reason to give anyone else carries; the Titans need to find out what their second-round pick is capable of going forward. With greater volume comes greater responsibility--like, he'll need to turn 14 carries into more than 44 yards, like he did against Jacksonville last week, if he wants to become the feature back in Tennessee.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN IND 004500000 ***
Washington had his moment in the sun with 6-102 against a bad Jets' secondary; now he's just taking up roster space.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN IND 004500000 ***
Wright is playing through a hand injury; despite that he led all Titans receivers with 4-73 last week against Jacksonville and is the best bet to post something similar against an Indy team he took for 5-55 (also team-leading) in the earlier meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN IND 005601000 ***
Walker scored against Indy in the earlier meeting--hardly surprising, seeing as the Colts have given up 10 TE TDs on the year. They've also allowed six games of 80 yards or more, including Walker's 84 earlier in the year. Given how heavily targeted Walker is, and how bad the rest of Tennessee's receiving corps is, a similar stat line feels like a starting point for Walker this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 1122 ***
The Colts have allowed one multiple-field goal outing in the past 10 games. No reason to think the Titans suddenly find one between the couch cushions this week.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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