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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: NYJ 17, TEN 20 (Line: TEN by 1 )

Players Updated: Bilal Powell

Players to Watch: All the running backs

The 6-7 Jets have won their last two games - albeit against the Jaguars and Cardinals - and bring their 3-3 road record to face the 4-9 Titans who have lost their last three games and are just 2-4 at home. Neither team has much of an offense and this game is most likely to go off as yet another "under".

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN -----
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 90,1 4-20
RB Bilal Powell 40 2-10
WR Jeremy Kerley 5-80

Pregame Notes: The Jets are finishing out the season and there is a chance that they could end up running the table and then ending with a respectable 9-7 record. Their final three opponents all have losing records but two will happen on the road and there is nothing about this offense that says they are getting any better. The only appropriate action by now is to wait and then as a surprise allow Tim Tebow to take the start in week 17 and then say nothing about it in the post-game interview.

Mark Sanchez has declined to the point where he has not scored in the last two games and only threw for 97 and 111 yards in them. He's scored just twice in the last five weeks while remaining safely under 200 yards in all games not facing the Patriots. The Jets won their last two games but only scored 24 combined points. It is not the offense that ticks the win column.

Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell are now splitting carries in half and at least Powell scored four times in the last four weeks while Green managed just one in jacksonville. The combination of the two is a working backfield so long as the opponents remain below average which happens in Tennessee this week. The Titans are weaker against running backs but mostly from them scoring and picking up receiving yardage as well than from just pure running yardage. Neither runner here matter much as a receiver. Only once has either caught more than two passes in a game and usually they only have one or none. The offense likes to run if only because they cannot throw.

The miniscule passing yardage of recent weeks is a testament to how bad these receivers are and the injuries have not stopped. Stephen Hill has a bum knee now and the Jets re-signed Braylon Edwards off waivers from the Seahawks. The bottom line here is that the only fantasy value left is from Greene and Powell who make modest flex players in larger leagues.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 23 28 20 31 11
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 31 17 28 29 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ NE 0000025021 ***
QBs have averaged a messload of fantasy points against the Pats this year. No one has given up more fantasy points (29.5) and yards (335) per outing. QBs have thrown a TD every 10.4 completions, which is the fifth-most-efficient clip.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Elijah McGuire, NYJ NE 5002100000 ***
If Bilal Powell cannot play or is limited, McGuire would get the lion's share of the touches. He has proven to be explosive but hasn't been tested heavily over four quarters in the NFL. New England is the best matchup for a running back to cut his teeth.

Update: Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. He isn't likely to play. Matt Forte, though, returns to action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ NE 3001100000 **
Forte's status remains unsettled at this time. He didn't practice Wednesday but managed to warm up with the team.

Update: Bilal Powell didn't practice all week but is listed as questionable. Forte is expected to make his return to the field after he was removed from the injury report.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ NE 005601000 ***
Kearse is as close to a safe option in this offense as you'll find among its receivers. The Patriots help nudge him closer to playability, as this is the fourth-best matchup in PPR. Kearse has shown a nose for the end zone in 2017, and the Patriots have permitted a WR TD per game in five showings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ NE 003400000 ***
Purely a wild flier because of the matchup, Anderson should be reserved for DFS purposes. New England has given up the fourth-most points per game in PPR and fifth-most in standard.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ NE 005400000 ***
Kerley could sneak into DFS lineups as a bottom-priced option because of the plus-matchup rating. New England is among the five most easily exploited defenses in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, NYJ NE 005501000 ***
One of every seven catches has gone for a score versus the Pats, and Seferian-Jenkins is developing a larger role int he offense. The position has averaged 66 yards on 5.6 snares facing this defense.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ NE 2222 ***
This would be a much better matchup than its current neutral status if kickers had not missed four of the 12 field goals attempts afforded to them.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ -----
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 250,1
RB DeMarco Murray 70,1 4-20
WR Eric Decker 3-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans have two more chances to get a win - here and then again in the final game against the visiting Jaguars. The second season of Mike Munchak has not gone nearly as well dropping from a 9-7 record down to a 4-9 currently but then again the Colts didn't give them two freebies this year. The offense is better with Chris Johnson more back to form but the passing effort has fallen short in nearly every game and Jake Locker missing six games slowed down the development.

Locker is getting better. He has scored in every start this year and his last three efforts all topped 260 pass yards. He has only nine scores in seven games and a recent spate of turnovers has left him with nine on the year mostly thanks to the Texans. He'll face one of the best secondaries this week but the Jets always play worse on the road.

As usual, Chris Johnson will be the main weapon this week and should see 20+ carries with nice results against a defense that has already allowed 12 touchdowns to running backs. Johnson has been less effective for three weeks now and only produced 44 yards on 19 carries in Indianapolis last week. He runs better at home though and there is certainly no reason to hold him back. The Jets will make passing tough enough and success with the run will only prompt more rushing.

Jared Cook was placed on injured reserve with a torn rotator cuff and while Craig Stevens took his place, he still only had his normal single catch last week. One change is the healthy scratch of Lavelle Hawkins last week and the promotion of Michael Preston from the practice squad. He only managed to catch one pass but it serves as more evidence that losing teams are willing to try out new players at the end of the season.

Kenny Britt finally had a nice game this year when he caught eight passes for 143 yards in Indianapolis - over double his previous best of the year. That should only attract more attention from Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 27 18 12 20 21
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 26 7 23 18 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Cassel, TEN IND 0000019020 ***
Despite the marvelous matchup, Cassel isn't a fantasy option to consider for this Monday night game. There is a chance Marcus Mariota returns, and Cassel has only game with more than 16 fantasy points in his last 13 outings.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN IND 00000000 *
It remains unclear if Mariota will play, and having it be a Monday game doesn't help fantasy owners. He posted 21 fantasy points in the home meeting with Indy last year, and was slightly better (25.4) on the road. Just the Pats have been a friendlier matchup for quarterbacks through five weeks of 2017.

Update: He was limited Friday and may come down to being a game-time call Monday night.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN IND 5014300000 ***
The Colts have been susceptible to allowing RB touchdowns thus far, rating as the sixth easiest on the ground and third vs. combined offensive scores. Yardage-wise, this is the 17th-best matchup to exploit.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN IND 201000000 **
Indy has surrendered RB rushing TDs with ease, being the sixth-worst team at stopping them. Eleven teams have permitted fewer yards on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN IND 004601000 ***
The first contest in 2016 ended with a paltry 7.7 PPR points for Matthews, but he exacted some revenge in Week 11, going for a buck-22 on nine balls. Indy is a top-10 opponent in fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN IND 004300000 ***
Despite the good matchup, Decker would be a hard sell in any fantasy format for any reason more than a hunch. Indy has yielded the fourth-highest weekly average of yardage to receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN IND 002201000 *
Giving up averages of 4.8 catches, 66.2 yards and a score every eight grabs makes Indy the seventh-easiest matchup to exploit in Week 6.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN IND 004500000 ***
The Colts have been gracious to tight ends. In fact, only six teams have been nicer. Walker has more fantasy appeal if Marcus Mariota returns to the lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN IND 1144 ***
All 17 extra points have split the pipes, and the same can be said for 10 of the 12 three-pointers against the Colts thus far.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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