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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

Prediction: TB 24, NO 31 (Line: NO by 3.5 )

Players to Watch: Vincent Jackson, Drew Brees, Marques Colston

This may not be for any of the playoff marbles but this has to be one of the best games of the weekend. It has to. This is a replay of week seven when the Saints won 35-28 in Tampa Bay. If this ends with anything less than 50 total points it will be a disappointment. When you draft in the summer, you should be looking for playoff games like this for your players.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CAR 16-10 10 SD 34-24
2 @NYG 34-41 11 @CAR 27-21
3 @DAL 10-16 12 ATL 23-24
4 WAS 22-24 13 @DEN 23-31
5 BYE ----- 14 PHI 21-23
6 KC 38-10 15 @NO -----
7 NO 28-35 16 STL -----
8 @MIN 36-17 17 @ATL -----
9 @OAK 42-32 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Doug Martin 80,1 4-20
RB Jacquizz Rodgers 40 4-30,1
WR Vincent Jackson 8-120,1
WR Cecil Shorts
TE Brandon Myers 5-50

Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers are on a three game losing streak that has ruined their chances of making the playoffs and yet each was by a touchdown or less. Losing to the Eagles last week and ending their eight game losing streak is no resume builder but at least there could be no better matchup for the fantasy fortunes of the players this week.

Josh Freeman ended with his best game of the year in the last meeting with the Saints. He threw for 420 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. He has been good for at least two scores in eight of the last nine games as well though his yardage has never topped 263 yards since that week seven monster showing. WIth the Saints weak against the run as well, chances are that Freeman will continue to score but not need as many passing yards.

Martin has been a gold mine every week and consistently good for over 100 total yards almost every week. He has scored 11 times this season and turned in 85 yards on 16 runs and a touchdown against the Saints in week seven along with three catches for 37 yards. The Saints remain the worst unit against running backs and Martin should be a lock for 20+ carries and a few receptions this week.

Dallas Clark is highly inconsistent this year but did record a touchdown and 51 yards against the Saints last time. His last two scores came in road games but his yardage has tended to be very light.

The last meeting was when Vincent Jackson caught seven passes for 216 yards and one touchdown while Mike Williams only gained 36 yards on four catches. the success of the rushing game has lowered the needs of passing in recent weeks but the Saints are still one of the worst secondaries in the league. They do play better at home though and will be looking for some bounce back after getting trashed by the Giants last week.

Freeman, Martin and Jackson are must starts this week. This week should see the Buccaneers need to pass more since Drew Brees at home should victimize the Bucs equally bad secondary. That may limit what Martin does in a shootout but he plays every down anyway.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 14 7 8 25 6 18
Preventing Fantasy Points NO 32 32 29 26 26 15

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jameis Winston, TB NO 10000029020 ***
New Orleans ranks evenly against quarterbacks as a neutral matchup in the last five weeks. Sure, Matt Stafford beat them down last week, so there's hope Winston does similar damage. The Bucs don't have the same weapons, but they are not far behind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Doug Martin, TB NO 6003200000 **
Strangely, the Saints are a good run defense against fantasy backs. Martin just isn't right and has struggled. Nevertheless, he deserves a low-end lineup spot this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jacquizz Rodgers, TB NO 2001100000 *
Quizz has returned to health but could lose touches if Charles Sims goes this week. Either way, he shouldn't be counted on for playoff leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Evans, TB NO 007801000 ***
Evans was held in check last week against the Bolts, but that shouldn't be a sign of things to come. New Orleans has given up six TDs in this last five games to receivers, plus the 11th most fantasy points, on average, in this period.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Freddie Martino, TB NO 004600000 **
Martino was the surprise hero a week ago. With such a limited track record, gamers may want to err on the side of caution. The Saints at least present a top-12 matchup for those few brave owners.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Russell Shepard, TB NO 005500000 ***
The Saints are a fine matchup if you want to take the chance, but there is no justifiable reason in which Shepard should meet your starting lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Humphries, TB NO 00000000 *
Check back Friday for an update of Humphries' status for Week 14.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Cameron Brate, TB NO 005601000 ***
Brate faces a Saints defense that has yielded averages of 4.6 catches, 65.6 yards and a touchdown every 11.5 snares. Brate continues to have a red zone presence and can corral a touchdown with the attention paid to Mike Evans.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Roberto Aguayo, TB NO 4322 ***
This is the best matchup a kicker can face in Week 14 when using data over the last five weeks. The downside comes with Aguayo's erratic accuracy.

New Orleans Saints
Homefield: Superdome
Sportexe Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 WAS 32-40 10 ATL 31-27
2 @CAR 27-35 11 @OAK 38-17
3 KC 24-27 12 SF 21-31
4 @GB 27-28 13 @ATL 13-23
5 SD 31-24 14 @NYG 27-52
6 BYE ----- 15 TB -----
7 @TB 35-28 16 @DAL -----
8 @DEN 14-34 17 CAR -----
9 PHI 28-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NO vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Drew Brees 340,3
RB Mark Ingram 40,1
TE Coby Fleener 2-20

Pregame Notes: The wheels really came flying off last week when the Giants went nuclear on the Saints. But while this has been the third straight loss, all went to division leaders and the last two were on the road where the Saints have been much less formidable this season. Now back at home against one of the few teams they beat in a road game this year, the time has come to cash in on holding Drew Brees and the boys during fantasy playoff time.

Brees has turned into a turnover machine these last three weeks but again - they faced top NFL teams and these last two games had over 340 pass yards in each. After a stellar season, Brees has finally been disappointing for two weeks but that should change against the same team that allowed him 377 yards and four touchdowns in Tampa Bay back in week seven.

Darren Sproles turned in 59 total yards and four catches with one score in Tampa Bay this year while Mark Ingram only gained 21 yards on seven runs. The strength of the Buccaneers is against the run while both they and the Saints have spent all season trading back and forth as to who was the worst defense against quarterbacks and wide receivers. This should be another lesser game for the running backs.

Jimmy Graham did not play in the week seven meeting in Tampa Bay but David Thomas subbed in and scored once on his two catches for 27 yards that week. Graham has not scored since week 11 and his yardage took a big hit these last three weeks. He should bounce back at home against a weak secondary.

Lance Moore accounted for 121 yards on nine receptions in Tampa Bay while Marques Colston settled for seven catches for 73 yards and a score. Moore only has one game with a score since week three and that was on the road in Oakland. Colston scored in each of the last four home games.

The recent success of the rushing effort should hit a stumbling block here if only because their average rushing defense looks so much better than their terrible secondary. Brees needs a bounce back game with some gaudy stats and this is the perfect situation for just that.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NO 2 6 7 3 30 23
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 31 15 32 24 7 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Drew Brees, NO @TB 0000030031 ***
Shake off last week's dismal game. Don't count on an explosion from Brees versus the Bucs, whose defense is playing well over the last five weeks. This is fantasy's 15th best matchup, so almost perfectly neutral. This is the first meeting between these teams in 2016.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mark Ingram, NO @TB 4003301000 ***
Ingram is the only playable back in New Orleans, and that is if you plug your nose. The Buccaneers have given up only one score on the last 99 rushing attempts faced, plus one receiving score on 18 grabs, helping rate this as the fourth hardest matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Tim Hightower, NO @TB 2003200000 *
Hightower doesn't have much upside, and the matchup is daunting. Tampa Bay has been the fourth hardest against backs over the past five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Travaris Cadet, NO @TB 004200000 *
Cadet is not a fantasy-worthy commodity in any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Thomas, NO @TB 005601000 ***
A foot injury hobbled Thomas in Wednesday's practice. Check his status Friday to be safe, but it doesn't sound serious. The Buccaneers present a low-end matchup that can give fantasy gamers some reason to pause, but the position has scored once every 10.4 grabs, so there is hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandin Cooks, NO @TB 007700000 ***
Tampa Bay is on fire entering this one and has been an interesting defense of wideouts along the way. Overall, it's the sixth worst in PPR, but the position has given up a touchdown a game over the last five, which translates to one every 10.4 catches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Willie Snead IV, NO @TB 005400000 ***
Michael Thomas showed up with a sore foot Wednesday, which opens the door for Snead to have a larger role. Stay tuned. The matchup is a mixed bag, but receivers have scored once per game since Week 8 against the Bucs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, NO @TB 005601000 ***
The Bucs have given up the sixth highest yardage average per game (69.4) but only two touchdowns on the last 27 catches, which is 18th. There is appeal here, since Tampa will be busy on the outside against a capable trio of receivers.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Wil Lutz, NO @TB 1033 ***
Kickers have averaged the fourth fewest kicking chances against the Bucs over the last five weeks. The position has made six of seven field goals and 10 extra points in that span.

WEEK 15
2012
CIN at PHI (THU) *GB at CHI *MIN at STL *SF at NE
CAR at SD IND at HOU *NYG at ATL TB at NO
DEN at BAL *JAC at MIA *PIT at DAL *WAS at CLE
*Updated *DET at ARI KC at OAK *SEA at BUF *NYJ at TEN (MON)

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