FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: BUF 17, MIA 24 (Line: MIA by 4)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush

This is a replay of week 11 when the Bills won 19-14 in Buffalo. The 5-9 Bills are only 2-5 away from home and the 6-8 Dolphins are 4-3 at home. Chances that this game ends up boring and low scoring is exceptionally high.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC 34-18
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL 12-15
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA 17-50
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA -----
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Bryce Brown 40,1 3-20
RB C.J. Spiller 100,1 3-20
WR Mike Williams 4-50,1
TE Scott Chandler 5-50
PK Dan Carpenter

Pregame Notes: The Bills are ending another disappointing season that started out 2-1 and just went south from there. Like 2011, Ryan Fitzpatrick began the year red hot posting three and four touchdown games. By now, he's only thrown five touchdowns over the last five games and had four different matchups produce no touchdowns. His yardage remains low in all but New England games. Fitzpatrick only passed for 168 yards and no scores in the first meeting with the Dolphins.

With Fred Jackson gone yet again, C.J. Spiller is left to shoulder almost the entire load and has been a solid fantasy play nearly every week including 103 yards and a score against the Seahawks just last Sunday. Spiller ran for 91 yards on 22 carries in the last meeting with the Fins while Fred Jackson missed that game as well. Tashard Choice is the #2 but gets almost no work and was limited to a single carry just last week. Whatever is there to get, Spiller now takes it all.

Donald Jones has been placed on the season-ending non-football/illness list because of his calf and that only serves to weaken the receiving corps which already is limited to mostly Stevie Johnson who comes off his best game of the year when he turned in eight catches for 115 yards and one score on the Seahawks last week. He only only scored three times over the last ten games and ended with six receptions for 79 yards in the last meeting with the Fins for an average sort of game.

The Bills have already struggled to score more than 20 points in games and only managed 19 in the win over the Fins. They won that game thanks to a punt return for a touchdown and four field goals and never scored in the second half.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 22 8 27 16 23 22
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 16 6 13 6 22 18

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB EJ Manuel, BUF MIA 20000020011 ***
Manuel missed both ends of last season's series with the Dolphins, and aside from a rushing score he did nothing last week against the Bears to suggest he warrants fantasy attention. Hey, if you want to back on the rushing score you go right ahead; odds are you have a better fantasy option at your disposal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Spiller, BUF MIA 7015300000 ***
Spiller has had his chances against Miami, with three 20-plus carry games over the past two seasons (two while Fred Jackson was out of the lineup). And he's produced triple-digit combo yardage in all three, averaging 137 yards from scrimmage per game. But he hasn't scored. Spiller did find the end zone last week, but he's best used in a yardage-heavy format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Fred Jackson, BUF MIA 5004300000 ***
Jackson scored in both ends of last season's series with the Dolphins, and he's involved enough in everything the Bills do that he's a solid bet to get enough touches to reach the end zone again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF MIA 004500000 ***
The Bills haven't scored a WR TD or had a wideout top 70 receiving yards against the Dolphins since Week 15 of 2011. Woods hit the 70 mark against Miami last year and despite being benched in the preseason led the team in targets in the season opener. If you're forced to start a Bills wideout he's probably your best bet, but that's not saying much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF MIA 004500000 **
Right now Watkins is all sunshine and upside, but he fell behind Robert Woods in the targets race in Week 1 and has done nothing to suggest he's anything more than a fantasy lottery ticket at this juncture of his career.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Williams, BUF MIA 003400000 ***
Tough for receiver depth to carve out fantasy value when EJ Manuel is your quarterback.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Scott Chandler, BUF MIA 001100000 ***
Chandler is still looking for his first catch of 2014. History suggests he'll get it--and maybe another--against the Dolphins, but it won't amount to nearly enough to move the fantasy needle.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF MIA 3222 ***
Hell hath no fury like a kicker scorned: in two meetings with the team that kicked him to the curb Carpenter has kicked seven field goals and three PATs. He's coming off a multi-trey game last week and would love yet another opportunity to stick it to the Phins.

Miami Dolphins
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @HOU 10-30 10 TEN 3-37
2 OAK 35-13 11 @BUF 14-19
3 NYJ 20-23 12 SEA 24-21
4 @ARI 21-24 13 NE 16-23
5 @CIN 17-13 14 @SF 13-27
6 STL 17-14 15 JAC 24-3
7 BYE ----- 16 BUF -----
8 @NYJ 30-9 17 @NE -----
9 @IND 20-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 10 220,2
RB Lamar Miller 20
RB Knowshon Moreno 80,1 3-20
WR Brandon Gibson 4-60
WR Brian Hartline 6-80,1
WR Rishard Matthews 4-60
WR Mike Wallace 5-70,1

Pregame Notes: A win this week makes it two in a row and the Fins are happy enough with the progress made in HC Joe Philbin's first season that everything will remain on track as is. That means Ryan Tannehill remains the starter who just had a very costly and painful learning curve. The rookie only passed for ten touchdowns this year but had five over these last five weeks. He remains more of a game manager anyway and has been mostly below 200 yards. He only completed 14 of 28 for 141 yards and one score in the Buffalo meeting during week 11.

Daniel Thomas injured his knee last week but has fallen from favor anyway and was recently passed on the depth chart by Lamar Miller. There is no fantasy value in the #2 back and Miller only gained 18 yards on six carries as a high game since week three.

Reggie Bush comes off a 104 yard effort over the Jaguars and after spending much of the mid-season with very marginal stats, he's really stepped up lately. Bush has been good for 80+ total yards in three of the last four games and looks better. With 15 - 20 carries in recent games, the Fins are starting to rely on his again just in time for the season to conclude and Bush potentially end up as a free agent in March. Bush only accounted for 20 yards on ten carries in the previous game with the Bills who have become far worse against the running backs on the road this year.

Davone Bess scored on the Bills last time with his six receptions for 50 yards and it was his lone touchdown of the year. Brian Hartline was limited to only 49 yards on four receptions in that game and also has just one touchdown to his credit for the season. This game is going to be lower scoring and more about the run and defense. There's not much fantasy points to cull from this game other than Reggie Bush and his potential for moderate stats.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 5 30 31 25 25
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 28 28 21 17 14 25

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA @BUF 0000024021 ***
Tannehill has never topped 200 yards in four career outings against the Bills, and five of the six TDs he's scored against them have come in South Beach. Fresh off 178 yards against the Patriots--another divisional foe, and one he's had more success against than the Bills--it's tough to pencil him in for anything more than pedestrian yardage; cross your fingers that a touchdown or two salvage his fantasy day.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knowshon Moreno, MIA @BUF 7002200000 ***
The Bills have allowed 100-yard rushers in three of their last five games--and in one of the other two held the Dolphins to a total of 14 rushing yards. That was pre-Moreno, of course, and given the success the Phins had on the ground last week you have to like their chances of producing in Buffalo. Moreno emerging as the lead dog in this committee last week makes him the better fantasy play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Lamar Miller, MIA @BUF 4004300000 ***
Miller has lost ground to Knowshon Moreno in the backfield battle, but he still appears to be the primary RB pass-catcher; against a defense that just gave up 87 receiving yards to Matt Forte, that's enough to at least keep Miller on the fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, MIA @BUF 008701000 ****
Wallace was targeted 21 times in two games against the Bills last year, catching nine for 114 yards. He's being moved around more this season and could slide into the spot that generated two TDs for Brandon Gibson in last season's series--or at least the spot that generated a TD for Brandon Marshall last week. Maybe if he changed his name to Brandon...
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA @BUF 004500000 ***
Hartline was a distant WR2 to Mike Wallace last week, targeted four times compared to 11 for Wallace. This offense doesn't project to provide an abundance of passing yardage, and with Wallace taking more than his share there's not nearly enough to make Harline fantasy relevant this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, MIA @BUF 005601000 ****
Clay scored on limited looks against the Bills last season, and he wasn't much more involved in Week 1--to the point that asking him to match Martellus Bennett's 8-70-1 (on 10 targets) from last week is aggressive at best, foolhardy at worst.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, MIA @BUF 3322 ***
Sturgis has never kicked a field goal against the Bills as a member of the Dolphins--he missed his lone attempt in the two-game set last year--but coming off a four field goal game last week it's about time he got on the board.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

a d v e r t i s e m e n t